Dodgers vs Angels, June 20th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Angels	J.Weaver vs J.Weaver	Angels	61.98%	9.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers vs Angels, June 19th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Angels	C.Billingsley vs J.Saunders	Dodgers	50.98%	7.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers / Angels, Series Preview

Hitting:

	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	RAR MLB Rank
Dodgers	.277	.356	.404	.760	.337	9th
Angels	.282	.342	.429	.770	.339	10th

Skinny: Two pretty evenly matched offenses. The Dodgers do a better job of drawing walks and getting on base, and the Angels do a better job of slugging the ball. The Dodgers offense has been on a down swing. The Dodgers wOBA in the month of June has been .294, while the Angels come in at a .361 clip. The Dodgers BABIP has steadily been heading south, their once mighty BABIP of .340 has dwindled to a more realistic .325, thanks in part to a June BABIP of .264.

Starting Pitching:
The Angels starting rotation has done a great job considering all the injuries and tragic events that have happened so far this year. The Angels starters have been 6.1 wins above replacement level, good enough for a ranking of 7th in MLB. The Dodgers starters on the other hand, have been 5.6 wins above replacement level, coming in 13th best in MLB. Let's preview this weekends starting pitching matchups.

Date	Pitcher	IP	W-L	ERA	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB/FB Ratio
6/19	C.Billingsley	92.2	9-3	2.72	2.92	9.03	3.79	0.29	.300	1.31
6/19	J.Saunders	86.0	7-4	3.66	4.63	4.92	2.62	1.07	.269	1.17
6/20	Jeff Weaver	29.0	3-1	3.72	4.24	6.21	4.66	0.62	.312	1.11
6/20	Jared Weaver	90.2	7-2	2.08	3.30	7.35	2.48	0.69	.245	0.64
6/21	C.Kershaw	69.2	3-5	4.13	3.84	9.04	5.43	0.65	.275	0.99
6/21	J.Lackey	38.1	2-2	6.10	4.32	6.57	1.88	1.17	.370	1.50

C.Billingsley vs J.Saunders
This is the only pitching matchup where the Dodgers have the clear cut edge. Billingsley has blossomed into one of the National Leagues best pitchers. Saunders on the other hand is pretty average but could give some of the Dodgers left handed hitters (Loney, Ethier, Pierre) trouble.

Jeff Weaver vs Jared Weaver
A historical brother vs brother matchup, or should I call it Jeff Spicoli vs little brother. The last time two brothers started against each other was back in 2002 when Andy and Alan Benes faced each other (Hat tip: Dodgers49 via DodgerThoughts). Big bro Jeff has been pitching on fumes but has done reasonably well so far this year. But little brother Jared will help make the Angels a solid favorite to win this game. Jared has been a little lucky, limiting opponents to a BABIP of only .245.

Clayton Kershaw vs John Lackey
The outcome of this game is very unpredictable. Lacky coming off of an injury that has limited him to just over 38 innings has been pretty bad so far this year. But we all know the track history of Lackey, who was one of the AL's best pitchers last year. The big question with Kershaw every start has been, which Kershaw will show up, the good one or the bad one. Kershaw is getting more consistent these days, and all arrows point towards a very high early pitch count, lots of strikeouts and a handful of walks. You can pretty much count on Kershaw to pitch right around 5 innings. Clayton, don't be afraid to throw the curve ball for a strike to right handed hitters!

Bullpen:
If you have been following the Angels and Dodgers closely this year, this is where you will find the biggest talent gap between the two teams. The Angels bullpen has been pretty bad, though closer Brian Fuentes has a good stranglehold on 9th inning leads of late. Master of the blown save, Jose "Dog Food" Arredondo was recently sent packing to the minor leagues which can't hurt. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have one of (if not the) best closer in all of baseball in Jonathan Broxton. Broxton has been nursing a sore toe and has missed the past two games and his availability is day to day. Relievers Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario have done a great job of protecting late inning leads. If Broxton is available, the Dodgers will have the edge in any tied games that go to the bullpen.

Defense:
Just a lot of ho-hum here. Both teams are middle of the pack defensively. Each team has their standout fielders. For the Dodgers it's Matt Kemp, who is 6th in UZR in all of baseball and ranks first defensively for all centerfielders. Surprisingly, LF-Juan Rivera ranks 8th on the list of best UZR in all of baseball. This is probably due to the fact that there aren't too many good defensive left fielders. While CF-Torri Hunter does make many spectacular plays he rates just under league average using the UZR metric.

Know Your Enemy

Pos	Player	Skinny
C	Jeff Mathis	Worst hitting catcher in the big leagues.
C	Mike Napoli	Solid hitting catcher who packs a punch.
1B/RF	Kendry Morales	Decent power but rarely draws a walk.
1B/RF	Rob Quinlan	Defensive replacement at firstbase, nothing more.
2B/SS	Macier Izturis	Decent glove man.
2B	Sean Rodriguez	Adequate power in minors, but strikes out way too much.
SS	Erick Aybar	Slightly below league average SS, most value from glove.
3B	Chone Figgins	Speedy, hits for average, gets on base and sustains a high BABIP.
OF	Juan Rivera	Passable power, not fond of walking.
OF	Torri Hunter	Having All-Star year with the bat.
OF	Gary Matthews	A big mistake.
OF	Vladimir Guerrero	Battling through injuries this year. My knees hurt watching him run.
OF	Bobby Abreu	Typical Abreu season. Decent average, little bit of pop, and a great OBP.

A's vs Dodgers, June 18th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
A's	Dodgers	R.Wolf vs V.Mazzaro	Dodgers	57.98%	7.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

A's vs Dodgers, June 17th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
A's	Dodgers	T.Cahill vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	59.02%	7.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

A's vs Dodgers, June 16th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
A's	Dodgers	D.Braden vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	57.98%	7.3

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

A's / Dodgers, Series Preview

Defense: Not much difference between these two teams when it comes to defense. The A's come in with the MLB's 10th ranked defense (UZR) and the Dodgers come in ranked 15th. Light hitting third baseman, Jack Hanrahan leads the A's defense and Rajai Davis (mostly for his arm) and Matt Holliday (mostly for his range) lead a slick fielding outfield. Meanwhile the Dodgers defense is buoyed by CF Matt Kemp who is having a spectacular season in the field, and SS Rafael Furcal and his cannon arm.

Offense: Even though their offense has seen some recent regression to the mean, the Dodgers still rank 6th overall. At the other end of the spectrum you find the A's offense. If their offense was a rocket, it would be buried deep underground in a bunker somewhere and the launch codes would be lost. Out of site and out of mind. The A's offense ranks dead last, an amazing 53.2 runs below average.

Starting Pitching: The Dodgers pitching staff gets a slight edge over the A's staff. The toughest starter the Dodgers will face will be LHP Dallas Braden (FIP: 3.52, K/9: 6.0, HR/9: 0.67). Braden has pitched atleast 7 innings in four of his last five starts. Josh Outman (FIP: 4.14, BABIP: .245, HR/9: 1.1, K/9 7.26) has been very hittable this year but tends to bail himself out statistically with a decent strike-out rate. A's rookie, Vince Mazzaro who has thrown 19-2/3rds innings in three starts has pitched well but has been surviving in the minors and pro ball off of the lack of HRs he has given up.

Relief Pitching: Both the Dodgers and A's have had very good relief pitching. The Dodgers have arguably the best relief pitcher in all of baseball in Jonathan Broxton. The A's on the otherhand are not a top heavy bullpen. Anyone in their bullpen is completely capable of shutting the door on an opposing teams rally, as long as their name is not Santiago Casilla (FIP: 6.54, HR/9: 2.08, BB/9: 5.82).

Notes of Interest: The A's already weak offense will now have to bat a pitcher. In their previous three road interleague games, the A's scored a total of three runs against the Giants. Amazingly, the A's only have three players hitting above league average and they are Adam Kennedy, Matt Holliday and Jack Cust. This is about as perfect an opportunity as any for Dodger starting pitching to fatten up their numbers.

NL West is the Best

Remember all the pre-season talk about how bad the NL West would be in 2009? Well, we are well over a third of the way through the season and the NL West has the best winning percentage of any division in the National League. The NL West has the best team in all of baseball, followed by the current NL Wild-Card leader. Not too shabby if you ask me. Let's take a look at the breakdown of the standings in the NL West and how the two other divisions stack up.

NL West Standings
Team	W	L	Pct
Dodgers	42	22	.656
Giants	34	28	.548
Rockies	31	32	.492
Padres	28	34	.452
Diamondbacks	27	37	.422
NL West	162	153	.514
NL Central	188	185	.504
NL East	146	164	.471

So much for the "haters" excusing the Dodgers MLB best record on the division they play in. The NL West is more than holding it's own up to this point. Fans of the NL West will point to the pathetic 16-45 record of the Washington Nationals pulling down their division. While this is true, it is also inflating the records of the top four NL East teams. The NL Central is a solid division, but lacks the dominating team that the NL West has. I cut the NL Central teams some slack, because they have 5 other divisional foes to beat out every season, as opposed to the 4 that the other two NL West divisional teams must beat out. But in the end, I think the wild-card evens that out.

Dodgers vs Rangers, June 14th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rangers	C.Billingsley vs D.Holland	Dodgers	57.63%	9.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers vs Rangers, June 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rangers	R.Wolf vs S.Feldman	Rangers	54.13%	10.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers vs Rangers, June 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rangers	H.Kuroda vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	50.74%	9.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers / Rangers, Series Preview

Interleague play revs up again this weekend as the Dodgers head out to hot & humid Arlington Texas for a three game series sandwiched in between two off days.

The Rangers head into the series at the top of the AL West with a 34-25 record and a 31-27 pythagorean record. The Rangers, like the Dodgers, have "made hay" by beating up on teams in their own division. The Rangers are 13-3 vs the AL West and also have an AL best 25-10 record against sub .500 teams.

The Dodgers make the scamper down to Texas with the best record in all of baseball at 39-22. The Dodgers also match the Rangers 25-10 record against sub .500 teams. The Rangers have a few key injuries, as CF-Josh Hamilton recently was added to the DL, and closer Frank Francisco is nursing a sore shoulder and is questionable for the entire series.

Texas Ranger blog Lonestar Ball notes recent Ranger offensive problems, mainly due to the lack of taking walks and the teams low rank in OBP. Hopefully, this is something that Dodger pitchers can take advantage of.


Team Comparisons... Know Your Enemy

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	MLB Rank	MLB Rank	MLB Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Dodgers	28.4	-4.1	-1.7	3.7	0.3	54.9	20.9	8.1	18.7
Rangers	20.1	1.2	16.9	4.2	22.6	39.0	5.1	4.3	15.3
Dodgers MLB Rank	7th	14th	17th	7th	16th	10th	8th	6th	3rd
Rangers MLB Rank	10th	14th	3rd	6th	1st	20th	20th	23rd	6th

Who's Been Hot and or Lucky Recently

Player	PA	wOBA	OPS	BABIP
A.Ethier	32	.565	1.438	.421
D.Murphy	25	.443	.962	.474
M.Kemp	29	.408	.932	.474
N.Cruz	32	.379	.915	.235

Who's Been Cold or Unlucky Recently

Player	PA	wOBA	OPS	BABIP
J.Saltalamacchia	22	.155	.325	.273
R.Martin	23	.179	.360	.200
M.Byrd	30	.228	.543	.350
C.Blake	24	.232	.523	.278

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 2.9
1. 2B-Orlando Hudson 1.9
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.8

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Chad Billingsley 2.5
2. *Randy Wolf 1.0
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.9

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.8
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.7
3. Ronald Belisario 0.4

Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.6
2. RF-Jamie Hoffman 2.9
3. 3B-Casey Blake 2.5

Top Three Rangers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. RF-Nelson Cruz 2.9
2. 2B-Ian Kinsler 2.6
3. SS-Elvis Andrus 1.4

Top Three Rangers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Kevin Millwood 1.0
2. *Scott Feldman 0.9
3. Matt Harrison 0.8

Top Three Rangers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Frank Francisco 0.7
2. Darren O'Day 0.4
3. Jason Jennings 0.2

Top Three Rangers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. RF-Nelson Cruz 10.3
2. SS-Elvis Andrus 6.0
3. 2B-Ian Kinsler 5.6

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.

Defense: Slick fielding is the apparent strength of this Texas Ranger team. Right fielder and slugger Nelson Cruz leads the way with an MLB 2nd best UZR of 10.3. Shortstop and AL ROY Leading Candidate Elvis Andrus leads all shortstops with a UZR of 7.2 and Ian Kinsler makes baseballs top 20 fielders with a UZR of 5.6. Matt Kemp and his UZR of 7.8 is the Dodgers only player in the UZR defensive top 20.

Offense: The Dodgers have seen their offense slip to 28.4 runs above replacement, as a few of their players begin their regression to the mean. But they are still good enough for a rank of 7th in the MLB. The Rangers are 10th, coming in at 20.1 runs above replacement. The Dodgers will have the luxury of using a DH in this series, and Jon Weisman predicts that Blake Dewitt should see consistent playing time due to the extra hitter.

Starting Pitching: The starting pitching matchups heavily favor the Dodgers. The Dodgers will arguably be using their three best starting pitchers (Billingsley, Wolf and Kuroda). The Rangers, best matchup will be saturday when Scott Feldman faces off with Randy Wolf.

Relief Pitching: The Dodgers will have a big advantage in any close, late inning games. The Dodgers have by far the best reliever in this series in Jonathan Broxton. Broxton leads all relief pitchers in MLB with a 2009 WAR of 1.8. Other competent options for Joe Torre out of the bullpen are, Ramon Troncoso (FIP: 2.95, HR/9: 0.00), Ronald Belisario (FIP: 3.48, K/9: 8.23, HR/9: 0.51), Cory Wade (FIP: 3.20, HR/9: 0.00) and rookie left hander Brent Leach (FIP: 2.45, K/9: 9.28, HR/9: 0.00). Frank Francisco, the only effective pitcher out of the Rangers bullpen is nursing a sore shoulder and is questionable for the series. The Rangers next best reliever, Darren O'Day has been decent (K/9: 8.05) but also very lucky (BABIP: .262, LOB% 88.0%). Temporary closer C.J. Wilson has been very liberal with his walks (BB/9: 4.44, FIP: 4.59).

Notes of Interest: The most difficult part of watching this series will be when most hated former Dodger Andruw Jones comes up to bat. Jones, a total bust for the Dodgers has actually been hitting pretty well for the Rangers in limited action.

Park Factors: Rangers Ballpark in Arlington

Year	Runs	HR	H	2B	3B	BB
2009	1.172	1.064	1.123	1.248	3.250	1.160
2008	1.142	1.229	1.070	1.042	2.227	1.030
2007	0.979	1.000	1.024	0.943	1.652	0.945

Source: ESPN Park Factors

Last 10 Games, Dodgers: 6-4
Last 20 Games, Dodgers: 12-8
Away Record: 17-12

Last 10 Games, Rangers: 4-6
Last 20 Games, Rangers: 10-10
Home Record: 18-11


Series Pitching Matchups
6/12: H.Kuroda vs V.Padilla
6/13: R.Wolf vs S.Feldman
6/14: C.Billingsley vs D.Holland


Source for stats: Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

Padres vs Dodgers, June 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Padres	Dodgers	K.Correia vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	67.11%	8.4

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Padres vs Dodgers, June 9th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Padres	Dodgers	C.Young vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	65.87%	7.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Phillies vs Dodgers, June 7th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Phillies	Dodgers	A.Bastardo vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	53.27%	8.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

A Lidge Over Troubled Water

I think this series has shown what two equally good teams the Phillies and Dodgers are. Both teams have had great starting pitching, Hamels having the best outing of the bunch. The Dodgers defense has probably played a little better, but the biggest difference has been the two closers. If you had Broxton and Lidge swap teams for the last two games, the Dodgers would definitely be scurrying to avoid the sweep on Sunday. Broxton has been his amazing self and Lidge has more than regressed back to the mean from last years amazing season. Kudos to Broxton (and the rest of his bullpen mates) and even the Dodger hitters for taking advantage of the struggling Phillie closer. The pitching stats from the series are listed below...

Pitching Stats This Series:

	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
Phillie Starters	22	5.32	0.41	0.41	2.75
Dodger Starters	15.2	7.47	4.02	0.00	2.88
Phillie Bullpen	7.1	8.59	3.68	2.45	6.06
Dodger Bullpen	18.1	4.91	2.45	0.00	2.93
Brad Lidge	1.2	10.80	5.40	5.40	10.40
Jonathan Broxton	2	22.50	0.00	0.00	-1.80

Phillies vs Dodgers,

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Phillies	Dodgers	J.Blanton vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.38%	8.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Phillies vs Dodgers, June 5th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Phillies	Dodgers	J.Moyer vs E.Milton	Dodgers	54.95%	9.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Phillies vs Dodgers, June 4th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Phillies	Dodgers	C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw	Phillies	50.98%	7.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Who's That Knockin On The Door?

West	W	L	Pct	GB
Dodgers	37	18	.673	__
Giants	25	25	.500	9.5
Padres	25	28	.472	11.0
Diamondbacks	23	31	.426	13.5
Rockies	20	32	.385	15.5

Nobody, that's who. Must be just the wind blowing, because there is nobody close to knocking on the Dodgers door in the NL West. This division is all but wrapped up. All it needs is a pretty bow and some dreadlocks to go with it and it's time to wait and see our first round opponent is.

Ok, I am partially kidding... 9-1/2 game leads have been lost much later in the season than this. Plenty of head to head games remain between divisional foes, but it gets to a point where a lead becomes too big to overcome, especially when the talent levels are so uneven.

Giants: The Giants are the closest competitor right now at 9-1/2 games behind the Dodgers. The Giants have a nice little pitching staff, and are playing .500 ball. That's probably how they will end the season, but could easily finish slightly over .500 at best. Their offense is awful and their bullpen, smells like a stroll down the Embarcadero.

Padres: Next up are the Padres, who are currently in third place, 11 games out. They recently put together a nice little 10 game winning streak. But they would be hard pressed to finish off the season at the .500 level, and most likely will finish somewhere around 10 to 15 games under .500. They have two nice little players in Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy. Peavy may or may not even finish the season off with the Padres. They are not a threat.

Diamondbacks: This is the team I still worry about the most, but they are a whopping 13-1/2 games out of first place, with two other teams to climb over in the NL West. They are easily the 2nd most talented team in the NL West and if they were less than 10 games out, I may be a little worried about them, but they are so far back in the rear view mirror that I can't see them contending for the West title this year. I still believe that they will finish around the .500 level, good enough for a possible 2nd place finish in the west. Very small threat, even when Brandon Webb returns.

Rockies The Rockies are 15-1/2 games out and are a very bad team. Probably on the same level as the Padres. But aren't even worth mentioning.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, June 3rd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Diamondbacks	Dodgers	J.Garland vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.97%	8.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

#2 Without A Bullet

The Dodgers have seen their fare share of lineups used this season, mostly due to the Manny Ramirez suspension. The Dodgers Most Common Batting Lineup still remains one that features Manny Ramirez. The second most common lineup, which does not include Manny, seems to be stalled one occurrence shy of the first place spot, thanks in part to the demotion of Andre Ethier from the cleanup to the sixth spot in the lineup.

2009 #1 Most Common Dodger Lineup
1. Furcal
2. Hudson
3. Ramirez
4. Ethier
5. Loney
6. Martin
7. Kemp
8. Blake
9. Pitcher

9 Games

2009 #2 Most Common Dodger Lineup
1. Pierre
2. Furcal
3. Hudson
4. Ethier
5. Martin
6. Loney
7. Kemp
8. Blake
9. Pitcher


8 Games

May 23rd, the last time Andre Ethier hit cleanup was the last time the Dodgers put the same lineup (1 thru 8, pitchers spot) on the field for two consecutive games. Lineup construction has very little effect on the game from a statistically significant point of view, but it does show that the Dodgers team is in a somewhat state of flux, due to the recent rash of nagging injuries and slumps to players like Ethier. It will be interesting to see when the next game will be where the Dodgers put out the same lineup for back to back games.

Random Dodger Stats

Jeepers, Creepers... Where'd You Get Those RBIs?
Juan Pierre is leading the major leagues in most RBIs (21) without having hit a homerun. Second on this list is none other than teammate Russell Martin with 20. The next closest is Pirate outfielder Nyjer Morgan with 17. Dodger reserve player Mark Loretta is 14th on the list with 10 RBIs. It's easy to see why Juan Pierre makes this list due to his OPS of .944, but Russell Martin makes it with no triples and an OPS of .695.

Party Pooper!
Andre Either takes over James Loney's role from last years team as the double play king. Ethier actually leads the National League in hitting into the most ground ball double plays with 12. Only Boston's Mike Lowell has more (13). James Loney? He has hit into 5 so far this year, good for 69th most in MLB.

You're Out!
James Loney leads the Dodgers in total number of outs made with 152. Andre Ethier is right behind Loney with 149. The Mariners Adrian Beltre leads all of baseball with 172 outs made. Beltre has an OPS of .584. Good thing he plays great defense.

Ouch!
Andre Ethier leads the Dodgers with 5 hit by pitches. Amazingly, Chase Utley leads all of baseball with 11.

One Trick Pony
Chris Davis of the Rangers leads baseball with the most homeruns for a player with an OPS of less than .700. Davis has 12 HRs and an OPS of .689. Davis has put up the following line so far this year (.194/.253/.436). Truly pathetic for someone with so many HRs.

Whiff! Chris Davis also leads all of baseball with the highest K%. Davis has struck out a whopping 46.7% of the time he has come up to bat. The highest K% for a Dodger is Matt Kemp at 25.9%, which is exactly his career K%.

Raking
David Wright of the Mets leads the majors with a BABIP of .452. Juan Pierre is 3rd in the majors with a BABIP of .419. Matt Kemp is 11th, with a BABIP of .393. The Dodgers as a team lead the majors with a BABIP of .340. The next closest is the Rays at .323.

Lucky Slob
Johnny Cueto of the Reds has the lowest BABIP against in the majors at .234. The luckiest Dodger in this regard is Clayton Kershaw, who comes in with a BABIP against of .254, good enough for 11th place in the majors.

On The Flip Side
Poor Jon Lester of the Red Sox wears the crown for unluckiest pitcher with a BABIP against of .374, narrowly beating out Tim Lincecum who comes in at .367. By comparison the first Dodger who shows up on this chart is Chad Billingsley with a .297 BABIP against. Hmmm... it pays to be both good and lucky!

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, June 1st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Diamondbacks	Dodgers	B.Buckner vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	63.37%	9.3

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Cubs, May 31st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cubs	E.Milton vs S.Marshall	Cubs	58.16%	9.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

All-Star Manny

Not one to usually give a rats behind about off the field baseball stories, I would like to chime in about the recent popular topic of whether or not Manny Ramirez should play in the all-star game if voted in by the fans.

Let me get a couple of things out of the way from both sides of the argument before I give my opinion. First off, there is no rule against a player playing in the all-star game if he was suspended during the season. Secondly, the fans historically have made many poor choices in electing which players start for the NL and AL teams. You want the fans to vote, then live with the occasional bad choices. Thirdly, there is a rule in place that says that the league that wins the all-star game receives home field advantage during the World Series. Yes, this is a very lame rule, but it's a rule nonetheless. Home field advantage is historically between 4 and 5%, so of course the extra game at home helps.

My opinion is that Manny doesn't deserve to be voted into the all-star game. That part is probably a no-brainer. But if voted in, he 'should' play and should not be pressured not to play. As long as the rule exists that whichever league wins the all-star game gets home field advantage during the World Series, then each league should make as their top priority winning the all-star game, aka - putting your best players on the team.

Sure Giants, Nationals, Rockies and Astros fans probably don't care, because they have no shot at going to the World Series, but it's not fair to those teams trying to win the all-star game to not have one of their best players just because he did something wrong and was suspended for 50 games. Either A) get rid of the stupid winner gets home field advantage rule, or B) have a rule that is already in place stating that suspended players cannot play in the all-star game. Until either of those take place, then let the guy play if the fans happen to vote him in or the manager selects him as a reserve.

Dodgers vs Cubs, May 30th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cubs	E.Stults vs R.Dempster	Cubs	58.51%	9.8

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Cubs, May 29th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cubs	C.Billingsley vs T.Lilly	Cubs	50.50%	7.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Cubs, May 28th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cubs	R.Wolf vs R.Wells	Cubs	54.55%	9.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers / Cubs, Series Preview

The Dodgers and Cubs both enter this game as teams of streaks. Not so much for their current modest win streaks (Dodgers 3, Cubs 2), but more for their recent streaks. The Cubs previous road trip saw them lose all 6 games, including 2 from a previous home stand, which totalled an 8 game losing streak. That road trip saw the Cubs score 5 runs in 6 games. The Dodgers on the otherhand have a 13 game home winning streak to their 2009 resume. More recently, the Dodgers just came off an impressive three game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field and have won 11 of their last 15 games. The Dodgers have only played three games vs the NL Central so far this year, and sport a record of 1-2 (@ HOU) in those three games. The NL Central teams will pose a big challenge for the Dodgers even though the Dodgers won't see another NL Central team until July 10th when the Dodgers visit Milwaukee in the dead of the summer.

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	NL Rank	NL Rank	NL Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Dodgers	36.8				-4.9	44.1	13.8	6.1	15.4
Cubs	-20.4				3.5	41.8	-2.5	4.0	7.9
Dodgers NL Rank	1st	15th	10th	6th	11th	5th	4th	4th	1st
Cubs NL Rank	12th	9th	6th	4th	5th	6th	14th	9th	11th

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 2.0
1. 2B-Orlando Hudson 2.0
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.6

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Chad Billingsley 2.0
2. *Randy Wolf 1.0
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.8

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.3
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3

Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0

Top Three Cubs Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Kosuke Fukudome 1.8
2. SS-Ryan Theriot 1.5
3. 3B-Aramis Ramirez 0.8

Top Three Cubs Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Carlos Zambrano 1.1
2. *Ryan Dempster 0.8
3. *Ted Lilly 0.8

Top Three Cubs Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Angel Guzman 0.3
2. Luis Vizcaino 0.1
3. Carlos Marmol 0.1

Top Three Cubs Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. SS-Ryan Theriot 4.2
2. RF-Kosuke Fukudome 2.8
3. 2B-Mike Fontenot 2.1

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.

This years version of the Cubs has not been all that impressive. They have struggled to score runs, especially on their previous road trip. They will have to put up some runs to compete with the Dodgers in this series. The Cubs starting pitching has been decent, but they obviously miss Rich Harden who is on the 15-Day DL with a lower back strain. The Cubs are a better fielding team than the Dodgers, their best fielder so far this year being shortstop Ryan Theriot. Still, Matt Kemp is the best fielder on either team. The most glaring weakness of this Cubs team is their bullpen and it's propensity for walking batters (BB/9: C.Marmol 7.71, A.Heilman 6.86, D.Patton 6.28, K.Gregg 5.59). An exciting player to watch in this series is RF-Jake Fox for the Cubs, who was just recently called up after putting up historically great numbers in AAA (Fangraphs: Free Jake Fox).

Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 11-4
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8

Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 4-1
Last 15 Games, Cubs: 7-8


Series Pitching Matchups
G1: R.Wolf vs R.Wells
G2: C.Billingsley vs T.Lilly
G3: E.Stults vs R.Dempster
G4: E.Milton vs S.Marshall


Source for stats: Fangraphs

Riddle Me This

... let's suppose your best hitter goes down for whatever reason. Let's say he is your power hitting left fielder in this example. While he is unavailable to play, his backup, the teams fourth outfielder plays in his place and does extremely well. He becomes one of your teams most productive hitters and one of the reasons why your team is continuing to win. Then after... let's call it 50 games, your best hitter comes back. What do you do? Let's say your fourth outfielder really can only play left field because he has a poor throwing arm, but could probably sub in CF for a game or two a month. Then what? If you were in the managers shoes, what would you do? The options are plenty, some obviously better than others. But you want to make sure you give your team the best chance of winning. Well, for namesakes let's call this situation "The Juan Pierre Conundrum" and take a look at what some of the options are. And yes, the joke is over I am talking about Juan Pierre and the situation the Dodgers could very well find themselves in a month from now.

Option I: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, giving each of them equal amounts of playing time.
Pros: Juan Pierre's hot bat remains in the lineup two out of every three games.
Cons: Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are better offensively and defensively than Juan Pierre and this weakens your team.

Option II: Platoon Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Pierre, but only giving Juan Pierre one and on some occasions two starts per week.
Pros: Your fielding your best players most of the time, Juan Pierre still gets some playing time, and your starting three outfielders will need some rest anyways.
Cons: Sticking a hot bat on the bench and recently Juan Pierre's trade value has risen and he could possibly fetch you some depth at a different position.

Option III: Trade Pierre for pitching depth.
Pros: The Dodgers could use another strong arm out of the bullpen or 4th starter level pitcher. Juan is replaceable with what the Dodgers have in the minors (X.Paul, J.Hoffman, J.Repko). Plus if the Dodgers could get a favorable trade, they could sell high on Pierre and dump some of the salary he is sucking from this team.
Cons: It's all about depth. You never know if/when an outfielder will get hurt or suspended again. Pierre is too valuable as a backup outfielder to get rid of.

Option IV: Move Andre Ethier to first base.
Pros: Gets Juan Pierre more at-bats and moves either Ethier or Loney to the bench until they start hitting.
Cons:Can Ethier even play first base? You would have to LH firstbasemen, not an ideal platoon situation. You would have a downgrade defensively, as Pierre would then move to CF, knocking Matt Kemp over to RF.

Option V: Juan Pierre goes back to his old role of 4th outfielder, makes a few spot starts and provides insurance should one of the starting outfielders gets hurt.
Pros: Most likely to be putting your best team on the field both offensively and defensively. Plus it's always nice to have a fourth outfielder who has been putting up all-star numbers this year.
Cons: A player who has been putting up all-star numbers is now relegated to the bench. Passing by a golden opportunity to trade Juan Pierre and his huge anchor of a contract.


Well, these are the options I came up with off the top of my head, I am sure there are more options and even slight variations of the ones I've mentioned. Please feel free to leave some other options in the comments section, or chime in on what you would do if you were the manager or GM.

Some of the themes in the options listed above are the importance of playing your best players, as well as resting them appropriately so they can continue to be your best players. Depth, and how important it is to have players who can fill in adequately should someone get hurt or in the Dodgers case suspended is something the Dodgers are currently benefiting from. Why throw that out the window? Then you have the 500lb gorilla, Juan Pierre's contract, which has been a burden to the Dodgers. A Juan Pierre who puts up all-star type numbers should have some trade value now. Perhaps not alot, but certainly much more than he had to start the season with. You may never get another chance to sell this high on Juan Pierre. There is some risk as well as reward to any path the Dodgers choose to take. Obviously, this could all become moot, if the clock strikes twelve on Juan Pierre's hot start to the season and he turns back into the pumpkin he has been the previous two years for the Dodgers. Remember, this is a player with a .434 BABIP and a career BABIP of .320. The bubble will eventually burst, the question is will it slowly seep or explode into a sea of ground ball outs.

Dodgers vs Rockies, May 27th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.81%	9.3

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Taking The Extra Base

A Look Around The Dodger Blogosphere

Jon Weisman's book, 100 Things Dodger Fans Should Know And Do Before They Die, was highlighted by KCAL Channel 9. A great gift for any Dodger fan. Buy the book! Video link

Congratulations to the wonderful Dodger blog True Blue LA, which recently surpassed the 1,000 member mark. Co-moderator Eric Stephens points out that the Dodgers have drawn the most walks of any team in baseball with 217. The Dodger walk gap is +17, which is good for just under half a win.

Orel of Sons of Steve Garvey blog fame, had a great time in the Dodgers press box for a recent game. I may try this for a game or two later in the season, so thanks for helping blaze the trail Orel and not spilling any Nachos in the blog spot.

Tony Jackson over at LA Dodger Talk, says "that Jason Schmidt’s rehab has been shut down because of “discomfort” he felt in his shoulder". Can we just give up on Jason and make him a special assistant to the General Manager? I'm sure Bill Mueller, Lee Elia and company are getting lonely.

Are wedding bells in store for Casey Blake and Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness blog? Apparently not, but MSTI does a great job pointing out how Casey Blake has been carrying the load since Manny was suspended.

And last but not least, Blue Heaven, shows off a recent college baseball workout (video) for some of the MLB scouts in attendance.

Buying Into The BABIP Babble

Hitting, pitching, fielding and a little bit of luck, well actually more than a little bit of luck win baseball games. One part of the equation when it comes to luck, is where a batted ball drops into play. While a line drive may end up in a fielders glove, solely because the ball was hit right at him, a blooper may fall in for a single or double because it landed in no mans land. One of the stats that shows alot of this batted ball luck is BABIP (Batting average on ball in play). For almost all pitchers this stat has been proven to be luck driven, not skill driven. Most pitchers will see their BABIP against hover around .300. With the luckier pitchers seeing their BABIP against, quite a bit lower than this figure, and the unlucky pitchers seeing their BABIP against, quite a bit higher. For example, for pitchers with 50 or more innings pitched this year, the luckiest AL and NL pitchers determined by BABIP against are Ross Ohlendorf (PIT, 0.235) and Matt Garza (TB, 0.243). On the other end of the slate, the unluckiest NL and AL pitchers have been John Lester (BOS, 0.386) and Tim Lincecum (SF, 0.382).

Hitters on the otherhand are said to have more control over their BABIP, through such things as line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, speed as well as park factors. Speed allows quick runners the extra advantage of being able to beat out a groundball hit in the infield. BABIP for hitters has proven to be a somewhat repeatable skill. So how are the Dodgers doing as a team when it comes to BABIP for their hitters? They come in at a lofty clip of 0.342! That is a full 0.015 points higher than the next team (TB, 0.327). So are the Dodgers hitters just incredibly lucky this year? One would think so, atleast to a certain degree... so let's take a look at which Dodger players are bringing up the BABIP and if it looks sustainable.

Player	2009 BABIP	Career BABIP	2009 Runs Created
Juan Pierre	0.412	0.319	24.2
Orlando Hudson	0.400	0.323	38.7
Mark Loretta	0.389	0.321	7.4
Matt Kemp	0.388	0.378	28.9
Manny Ramirez	0.377	0.345	29.0
Casey Blake	0.346	0.307	31.6
Russell Martin	0.339	0.316	18.6

So it appears that all these hitters (except for the amazing Matt Kemp) have their BABIP well over their career norms. A steady rise in BABIP this far into a career, outside of the steroid era isn't something likely to be sustainable. We may be seeing an amazing start of the season hitting-wise by this group of Dodgers, that very likely will regress back towards their career norms. Then the question arises, what would the "Runs Created" column look like if we were to regress all of these players BABIP to their exact career norm numbers. This can be easily done by taking each players 2009 distribution/ratio of hits, then modifying the BABIP, which in turn would spit out a new tally of singles, doubles and triples for each player. The "Runs Created" for each player (OBP*SLG*AB) then gets recalculated for each player.

Player	09 Runs Created	Regressed 09 Runs Created
Juan Pierre	24.2	15.6
Orlando Hudson	38.7	27.9
Mark Loretta	7.4	5.5
Matt Kemp	28.9	27.8
Manny Ramirez	29.0	26.5
Casey Blake	31.6	27.7
Russell Martin	18.6	16.7

First off, wow 30.7 runs right there! Let's hope Juan Pierre and Orlando Hudson take their time turning back into pumpkins. Keep in mind that I am only looking at the luckiest group of Dodger hitters, there are likely a few runs that need to be added to the other side of the ledger, though nothing nearing the 30.7 total you see here. What would 30.7 runs mean to this Dodger team? How would it effect their win/loss total. For that answer we can compare the Dodgers current Pythagorean record to one that has 30.7 less runs scored. The Dodgers current Pythagorean winning percentage is .675, and adjusted down 30.7 runs it would become .618. Over the 46 games the Dodgers have played so far, that would be a loss of 2.6 wins.

The Dodgers hitting is bound for a pretty strong regression, let's just hope the amazing starting pitching can keep it's current pace. The Dodgers probably feel pretty safe, leading the Padres who aren't sure if they are a contender or in the midst of a fire sale by 7-1/2 games. It's still early, the Dodgers have been lucky hitting wise, but they are still good enough and the rest of the division bad enough that it probably still doesn't matter. I would like to revisit this later in the season.

Dodgers vs Rockies, May 26th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rockies	E.Milton vs A.Cook	Rockies	59.35%	10.4

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Rockies, May 25th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rockies	E.Stults vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	57.08%	10.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers / Rockies Series Preview

Interleague play is over for the time being and it's back to the NL West competition for the Dodgers. Next up is a three game road series against the last place Rockies. The Rockies might be the last place team in the NL West, 11 games behind the Dodgers and 1/2 a game behind the Diamondbacks, but they are the 2nd best last place team in the majors. The NL West is no longer the NL worst, as the division as a whole is only one game under .500. The NL East is now the NL Least, as the division finds itself 10 games under .500. The Rockies haven't been playing all that bad of late. They are 7-8 over their last 15 games and have a decent pitching staff that is keeping them afloat. The Dodgers will be throwing out three consecutive left handed starters (Stults, Milton, Kershaw), all three can be a bit of a grab bag at times.

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	NL Rank	NL Rank	NL Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Dodgers	28.4				-4.9	42.6	14.9	6.1	14.0
Rockies	-19.0				-7.4	42.7	10.2	5.5	8.0
Dodgers NL Rank	1st	15th	10th	6th	11th	5th	3rd	2nd	7th
Rockies NL Rank	12th	13th	11th	8th	12th	4th	6th	4th	1st

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 1.9
2. 2B-Orlando Hudson 1.6
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.4

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Chad Billingsley 1.8
2. Randy Wolf 1.1
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.9

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.4
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.6
3. Cory Wade 0.3

Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.4
2. LF-Juan Pierre 1.4
3. 3B-Mark Loretta 1.0

Top Three Rockies Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. C-Chris Ianetta 0.8
2T OF-Seth Smith 0.7
2T 1B-Todd Helton 0.7
2T 2B-Clint Barmes 0.7

Top Three Rockies Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Ubaldo Jimenez 1.4
2. *Jorge de la Rosa 1.2
3. Jason Marquis 1.0

Top Three Rockies Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jason Grilli 0.3
2. Manny Corpas 0.2
3. Huston Street 0.2

Top Three Rockies Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-Clint Barmes 3.8
2. LF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.2
3. RF-Ryan Spillborghs 2.1

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.

The Dodgers better not take the Rockies too lightly. The biggest difference between these two teams is the hitting. The Dodgers have the #1 ranked NL Offense and the Rockies the 12th. Fielding and pitching wise the two teams are very similar. The Rockies have three starting pitchers with an 09 WAR of 1.0 or greater, while the Dodgers have two, with Kershaw ready to climb over that threshold. Jason Grilli has been the Rockies best pitcher out of the pen (FIP 3.00, K/9 11.57), more impressively done while allowing a BABIP against of .411. Huston Street has been pretty decent too (FIP 3.95, K/9 10.38), but Manny Corpas has been a bit of a letdown (FIP 3.58, K/9 4.82) especially his K/9 rate which has dropped for the 3rd consecutive year. Corpas, admittedly has been a bit unlucky (BABIP .388). Either way, don't expect the Rockies to be a pushover, as this is a big series for them, as they try to close the gap on the Dodgers big NL West lead.

Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 7-8

Last 5 Games, Dodgers: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Rockies: 3-2


Series Pitching Matchups
G1: E.Stults vs J.de la Rosa
G2: E.Milton vs A.Cook
G3: C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez


Source for stats: Fangraphs

Angels vs Dodgers, May 24th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Angels	Dodgers	M.Palmer vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.29%	7.8

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

NL Doesn't Suck So Far

Two days into interleague play the National League has been holding it's own for the most part. The American League holds a slight and statistically insignificant 15-13 edge so far. The American League actually has won 8 of the 14 games played in NL parks, while the two leagues have split the 14 games played in AL parks.

Angels vs Dodgers, May 23rd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Angels	Dodgers	J.Lackey vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	53.49%	7.5

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Angels vs Dodgers, May 22nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Angels	Dodgers	J.Weaver vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	54.55%	7.4

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Angels / Dodgers, Series Preview

Heading into the Freeway Series both teams find themselves without their big sluggers. The Angels have been playing without Vladimir Guerrero for most of the year due to torn pectoral muscle and the Dodgers without Manny Ramirez for the last dozen or so games. The Angels enter the series in 2nd place in the AL West, with a 21-19 record and only two games behind the surprising Rangers. The Dodgers on the otherhand hold a whopping 9 game lead over some god awful team. The Angels, whose pitching staff has been in shambles this year, recently got a big boost from the return of both John Lackey (Saturdays pitcher) and Ervin Santana. Please read below for a more statistical breakdown of the matchup.

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	NL Rank	NL Rank	NL Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Angels	4.7				-4.1	33.4	14.7	4.7	9.1
Dodgers	25.1				-8.8	43.6	13.4	6.0	12.9
Angels MLB Rank	15th	23rd	20th	24th	21st	17th	7th	11th	12th
Dodgers MLB Rank	6th	29th	23rd	17th	24th	5th	10th	4th	2nd

Top Three Angels Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Torri Hunter +1.5
2. C -Mike Napoli +1.3
3. RF-Bobby Abreu +1.1

Top Three Angels Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *J.Weaver +1.1
2. J.Saunders +0.8
3. S.Loux +0.6

Top Three Angels Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Arredondo +0.7
2. D.Oliver +0.6
3. B.Fuentes +0.4

Top Three Angels Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. 2B-H.Kendrick 4.2
2. LF-J.Rivera 1.4
3. 1B-R.Quinlan 1.0

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.7
2. O.Hudson +1.6
3. M.Ramirez +1.3

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.8
2. *R.Wolf +1.1
3. *C.Kersahw +0.8

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.2
2. R.Troncoso +0.6
3. C.Wade +0.4

Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-M.Kemp 7.3
2. 1B-J.Loney 2.0
3. 1B.M.Loretta 0.6

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.

Statistically, the Angels aren't all that impressive. Their biggest strength appears to be their bullpen, but their closer Brian Fuentes, is not even their first or second best pitcher out of the pen. Niether team fields all that well, but the Dodgers do have the 4th best fielder (Matt Kemp) in all of baseball based on 2009 UZR. The Dodgers continue to be near the top in hitting and pitching, and should be favored to win this series. Of course with the return of Lackey, the Angels starting pitching is better now than what the early season stats show. The Dodgers counter with their three best pitchers (Kershaw, Wolf and Billingsley), so be prepared for some great pitching and low scoring games this weekend.

Last 15 Games, Angels: 9-6
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 10-5

Last 5 Games, Angels: 3-2
Last 15 Games, Dodgers: 4-1


Series Pitching Matchups
G1: J.Weavers vs C.Kershaw
G2: J.Lackey vs R.Wolf
G3: M.Palmer vs C.Billingsley


Source for stats: Fangraphs

The Tortoise and The Dodgers

After sweeping the New York Mets out of first place, the Dodgers find themselves an amazing 8-1/2 games in front of the 2nd place Giants in the National League West. The Dodgers got great pitching, outscoring the Mets by a narrow 10-6 margin over the three game series. At the current pace, the Dodgers would win the NL West by over 19 games. We all know that won't happen, but the Dodgers are sure building themselves up a nice little cushion.

Next up for the Dodgers will be the cross-town rival Angels who were shutout for the second time in four games tonight by none other than Mariners rookie Chris Jakubauskas. The Angels play one more game against the Mariners thursday, while the Dodgers lay in waiting with the day off. I will have a series preview up as we get closer to friday nights game. Until then ponder this... Juan Pierre (162) and Mark Loretta (135) rank first and second in the National League in OPS+ for players who have played more than 25 games and have yet to hit a HR.

Mets vs Dodgers, May 20th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Mets	Dodgers	L.Hernandez vs J.Weaver	Dodgers	55.56%	10.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Mets vs Dodgers, May 19th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Mets	Dodgers	J.Maine vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	57.26%	7.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Mets / Dodgers Series Preview

The NL East leading New York Mets and NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers get together for a three game series this week. The Dodgers playing the day after a cross country flight from Miami, where the Dodgers took two out of three games from the Marlins and four out of six on their brief east coast roadtrip. The Mets will be playing games 5,6 and 7 of a road trip where they have already beaten the Giants three out of four games, and after three games with the Dodgers will travel to Boston for three more. Let's take a look at how these two teams matchup and get to know the Dodgers opponent a little better.

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	NL Rank	NL Rank	NL Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Mets	22.6				-14.4	31.8	12.5	4.7	10.0
Dodgers	30.1				-8.8	40.0	11.5	5.4	12.4
Mets NL Rank	2nd	14th	13th	13th	15th	8th	4th	5th	3rd
Dodgers NL Rank	2nd	15th	12th	10th	14th	1st	6th	1st	1st

Top Three Mets Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Carlos Beltran +2.0
2. 3B-David Wright +1.7
3. SS-Jose Reyes +0.7

Top Three Mets Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Santana +2.2
2. J.Niese +0.5
3. *J.Maine +0.4

Top Three Mets Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. F.Rodriguez +0.4
2. B.Parnell +0.4
3. B.Stokes +0.3

Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. M.Kemp +1.8
2. O.Hudson +1.4
3. M.Ramirez +1.3

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *C.Billingsley +1.6
2. *R.Wolf +0.9
3. C.Kersahw +0.8

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. J.Broxton +1.1
2. R.Troncoso +0.5
3. C.Wade +0.4

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.


The Mets stack up with the Dodgers about as well as any NL team does, but the Dodgers still hold an edge pretty much all across the board, but the Mets are definitely the best team the Dodgers have played so far this year. The Dodgers biggest edge is definitely in the starting rotation, where the Mets are a one man show, starring Johan Santana. The Dodgers won't have to face Johan Santana this time around, which bodes well for their chances to win this series. They will instead have to face the likes of Tim Redding in Game #1, who will be making his 2009 seasonal debut, after making two starts with the Mets AAA team. In Game #2, the Dodgers ace, Chad Billingsley faces John Maine who has been pitching well but sports a lucky .242 BABIP against. In the third game the Dodgers will throw out Eric Stults, who had a mediocre start against the Marlins, having come off a complete game shutout prior to that game... Stults faces the steady but very pedestrian Livan Hernandez. The Dodgers should be pretty solid favorites to take two out of three games in this series.

Source for stats: Fangraphs

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 17th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Koronka vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.68%	10.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 16th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Marlins	E.Milton vs A.Miller	Marlins	51.46%	9.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Marlins, May 15th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Marlins	E.Stults vs C.Volstad	Marlins	56.90%	9.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 14th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Phillies	C.Billingsley vs C.Hamels	Phillies	57.26%	8.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Phillies	R.Wolf vs J.Moyer	Phillies	50.50%	9.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Dodgers vs Phillies, May 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Phillies	C.Kershaw vs C.Park	Phillies	51.69%	10.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Giants vs Dodgers, May 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs J.Weaver	Giants	54.95%	7.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Giants vs Dodgers, May 9th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	J.Sanchez vs E.Stults	Dodgers	57.45%	9.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Giants vs Dodgers, May 8th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.97%	8.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Nationals vs Dodgers, May 7th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Nationals	Dodgers	J.Zimmermann vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	57.81%	8.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

2nd Annual Blogger Night @ Dodger Stadium

Just got back from the 2nd Annual Blogger Night at Dodger Stadium. Wow! What a blast that was. A special thanks to Josh Rawitch and Drew Merle for putting this great event together, and to the Mother Ship Dodger Blog for getting us bloggers noticed.

The event started with picking up our Preferred parking pass at the guard shack at the Sunset gate right when the stadium parking lot opened up at 5pm. After successfully finding Lot F, we wandered over to the Dodger offices and after some slight confusion we were welcomed and asked to sit in some seats overlooking the Dodgers batting practice and wait for the rest of our group to arrive. Around 530pm the experience started, and I call it an experience because it was just that, quite an experience. Being new to these events I didn't recognize any of the faces in the group and assumed Jon Weisman was late or off doing something else, because his would be the only face I'd recognize without a doubt. We were ushered into a conference room, seated around a large table. We were given an ID with some kind of special access pass on it to wear around our necks and told to put our names on it. We were then asked who had attended the previous event. Of course I didn't raise my hand, but over half the people did. Everyone introduced themselves by first name. I still didn't recognize any of the names, but who does in a room that is full of strangers to you. But thought it odd, that I didn't recognize atleast one name from many of the other Dodger bloggers.

Next up, we were then told why we had been brought here today and what our mission was. I thought that was kind of odd, I figured our mission was to sit in a Dodger Suite, meet each other, maybe meet a Dodger spokesperson or two and enjoy a baseball game. We were asked how many of us had the ambition of working for the Dodgers and becoming a Dodger Embassador. About two-thirds of the people raised their hands, which I thought odd coming from a group of Dodger bloggers. I mean, what the heck is a Dodger Embassador anyways? Do they represent the Dodgers at the United Nations!? Well, as I soon found out their job is to interact with Dodger fans, take in a game and mingle with the fans in the area and report back to the Dodgers what their "Fan Experience" was like. What experiences did they really enjoy or dislike, and what kind of recommendations did they have for the Dodgers to make the "fan experience" more enjoyable. I thought wow, this isn't exactly what I had in mind, but I will go along with it. Next we were told our actual mission and it was to be "seat fillers" behind home plate in an area that is called the "Dodger Dugout Club", which is a very very expensive place to sit if you have to buy your own tickets. Supposedly season seats go for $50K per year, and I don't know if that is per seat, or per two seats, but at $50K it didn't really enter my mind that it would ever be something I'd want to pay for. We were getting briefed on how to be a "seat filler" or what the Dodger employee called a "Page". Kind of like when you watch the Academy Awards on TV and when they have empty seats, they actually have volunteers (I assume they are volunteers) who will sit in empty seats until the actual person or people that have tickets for that seat arrive. I guess the Dodgers don't want to give the impression that there aren't people sitting in the seats behind home plate in the Dugout Club area to the television audience. We were then told that we'd be assigned seats to sit in by a Dodger employee who would be supervising the sortie from underneath one of the tunnels. And when someone arrived at their seat, you were to great them with "Hello, and welcome to Dodger Stadium", then get up and politely leave. You weren't suppose to eat any food at your seat as they didn't want anyone to arrive to their seat to a trashy mess and you weren't suppose to chat on your cellphone as this makes you look like an uninterested or typical Dugout Club Dodger fan, and lastly you had to take off your VIP pass so it would not be visible to the TV audience.

Wow! This was a lot of information to swallow for my first Dodger Blogger get together. It didn't seem like a very comfortable way to watch a Dodger game, even though you'd have terrific seats for 15 or possibly 20 minutes at a time, as you got shuffled in and out of the Dugout Club to different seating assignments. So one last time we introduced ourselves and this time I said something to the effect of, "My name is such and such, but I believe I may have been put with the wrong group of people, are the rest of you here for blogger night?" That got a good laugh from the group as it definitely was not "Blogger night" for this group of people and it became very ironic that I had heard a good 30 minutes of talk from the Dodger employer in charge of the Embassador program and the members trying to become Dodger Embassadors, because I'm sure some of the information (like this story I am telling), they probably would feel somewhat embarrassed of the public knowing it. Don't you think it's odd that the Dodgers have people filling seats behind home to make the stadium look full to the television audience? I was kind of shocked, and even more shocked that blogger night was going to have myself, guest and other Dodger bloggers playing musical chairs in some of the most expensive seats in the stadium. There were some other good stories I heard about the crowd control problem, which section of the stadiums have "the best" fans and "the worst" fans. What kind of experiences the security guards had recently had with the new alcohol enforcement policies in the parking lot and what some of the loopholes in the policy are. I guess I won't kiss and tell everything, but it was interesting nonetheless.

After finding out we were with the wrong group of VIP visitors, we eventually got in touch with Josh who scurried us and a few stragglers to the Tommy Lasorda suite where a crowd of probably around 30 bloggers and guests were chatting away. After a brief introduction of who we were and which blogs we were associated with Josh gave us a little introduction of who some of the guest speakers were going to be. This time I did recognize many names and even a few faces, I was finally at "Blogger Night", and would no longer have to worry about keeping a seat warm for a movie star or corporate banker. The highlight turned out to be a good 30 minute talk and question session from GM Ned Colletti. I actually ended up standing right next to him the whole time and got to shake his hand. He came across as a "no bullshit" type of person. He spoke what appeared to be the truth and seemed very genuine. Some of his opinions and cliches were "old school", like taking the Dodgers hot start with a grain of salt because it's called a baseball "season", not a baseball "month", and certain players he liked having on the team because they were good people. I think the exact words he used is that they were "adults" (Loretta, Ausmus) and acted like it. I believe he had to tone down some of his opinions a little bit, because after all he is the GM and is a very high ranking team spokesperson. It wasn't too hard to read between the lines on some of his opinions to see that there was more too them and that he really in fact had strong opinions but had to tone them down. One of those topics was Andruw Jones. He almost started to light into Andruw Jones and how he came to the Dodgers out of shape and ended up burning bridges with Dodger fans etc... Colletti is obviously not a big Andruw Jones fan, and I am not just talking about baseball. Another more subtle stab was made at Russell Martin and about how he was not a highly touted prospect when he was drafted and much of his success came from his great work ethic, which is probably true to a degree. I got the feeling that Colletti thanks that Russell has gotten away from that work ethic over the past year, and that matches some of the gossip about Russell and his party boy escapades.

In the Q&A Ned probably took around 10 questions from the Dodger Bloggers. I thought all of them were pretty good questions, I wasn't too crazy about the question/complaint about why we have to sing God Bless America during the 7th inning stretch. Hey, it was a totally fair question but I guess since the singing of both God Bless America and Take Me Out To The Ballgame doesn't really bother me at all, it rubbed me the wrong way. Basically, the answer was that it was Jamie McCourt's idea and whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.

The game was great, the Dodgers broke the record for most consecutive wins to start the season at home. It's not every day you get to see a 98 year old baseball record fall that doesn't involve steroids. The Tommy Lasorda suite we were in was great. We were fed Dodger Dogs, sandwiches, cookies, soda and one of the most elaborate dessert trays you will ever see. I proudly admit, I didn't indulge myself from it. Ken Levine and Josh Suchon from Dodger Talk (KABC 790 AM radio) even stopped by to chat for a little while. They were mobbed, so didn't get a chance to meet them. For the most part I watched the game, but I would say that more than half of the people were chatting and getting caught up on old times which is fine too. Maybe next time, I won't be so shy and become one of the chatters. :)

Dodgers Are Too Good???

The commissioners office is supposedly worried about the competitive balance in the NL West and the Dodgers ridiculously long home winning streak to start off the season. Fan interest is at an all time low in the four other NL West cities and this is not good for the economics of baseball, which is already hurting from the current recession. If the Dodgers win a record 13th consecutive home game to start off the season tonight vs the Washington Nationals, the Commissioner will start all Dodger home games (until they lose) with the visiting team getting a run on the board. If the winning streak lasts to the Giants series, then the visiting team will start getting two runs to start off the game. This handicap could easily bring the Dodgers back down to the pack in the NL West, so it's something to definitely keep your eye on. Let's take a look at what the Dodgers home record would be had this plan been in effect for the whole 2009 season.

Home Records
Current: 12-0
Spotting 1 run: 8-4 is the worst possible record
Spotting 2 runs: 7-5 is the worst possible record


Note: The Dodgers have won four 1 run games at home, so at worst they could have lost four having spotted the opposition one run, but likely would've split the difference and gone something like 10-2. As far as spotting the opposition two runs, there would only be 5 home games effected by this plan. Keep in mind that the Dodgers didn't bat in the 9th inning in any of these games, so they likely would've won some of these games that they won by only one or two runs.

Analysis: This is a hard one to get a good handle on because all of the in game strategies that would be effected by spotting the opposition one or two runs to start a game off with, but my instincts are that the Dodgers would still win the NL West while spotting the opposition even one or two runs to start a game off with. With the way that O.Hudson, M.Ramirez and A.Ethier and swinging the bat and C.Billingsley and J.Broxton pitching, there isn't much the rest of the NL West can do unless you start spotting opposing teams four or five runs per game and that's just outright unfair if you ask me.

Nationals vs Dodgers, May 6th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Nationals	Dodgers	D.Cabrera vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	66.0%	9.4

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers, Cinco de Mayo

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
DBacks	Dodgers	M.Scherzer vs J.Weaver	Dodgers	53.05%	8.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds.

Diamondbacks / Dodgers Series Preview

A quick two game series between these two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dodgers find themselves with the best record in baseball at 18-8, while the Diamondbacks come in struggling at 11-14. Let's take a trip down recent memory lane to see how these two teams got to where they are today.

Team	Hitting	Arm	Range R	Error R	Overall Fielding	SP	RP	Overall Pitching	Team Total
Units	RAR	NL Rank	NL Rank	NL Rank	UZR	RAR	RAR	WAR	WAR
Arizona	1.1				3.5	25.5	8.6	3.8	0.4
Los Angeles	52.8				-2.6	22.2	6.2	3.1	4.9
Arizona NL Rank	15th	6th	2nd	14th	6th	2nd	3rd	2nd	15th
Los Angeles NL Rank	1st	9th	10th	11th	9th	4th	4th	4th	1st

The DBacks come in as advertised an all pitching and no hitting team. Their defense has made some slight improvements but not enough to make up for their awful hitting to begin the 2009 season. The Dodgers also have been solid pitching wise, and enter the game with the 4th best pitching staff in the NL (2 spots behind the DBacks). These two teams would be mirror images of each other, and for the most part last year they were, except that this year the Dodgers have the number one ranked offense in the NL. The DBacks on the otherhand have the 15th ranked offense in the NL. Both bullpens are solid, though each has been through some turbulence of late. The DBacks find their closer Jose Valverde on the DL and the Dodgers recently placed 2008 Setup Man of the Year, HongZhi Guo on the DL.

Series Pitching Matchups
Date	DBacks	Dodgers	Vegas Favorite
5/4	Doug Davis	Eric Stults	Dodgers 57.4%
5/5	Max Scherzer	Jeff Weaver	Dodgers 55.0%

Source for stats: Fangraphs

Dodger Sims Blog Format Changes

Dodger Sims will take on a new look starting today. No longer will I be posting the outputs of my Simulator for Dodger games. Dodger Sims will now turn to various sabermetric postings about the Dodgers, Dodger opponents or other baseball teams in general.

Dodgers vs Rockies, April 24th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rockies	E.Stults vs A.Cook	Rockies	53.90%	11.11

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Astros, April 23rd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	C.Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez	Dodgers	51.69%	8.88

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Astros, April 22nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	R.Wolf vs R.Oswalt	Astros	50.80%	9.30

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Astros, April 21st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	C.Kershaw vs R.Ortiz	Dodgers	57.90%	10.63

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

No Game Today... But

Let me throw out this little mathematical tidbit. The Dodgers are off to a 10-3 start. Sure, it doesn't gaurantee squat at this point due to small sample size and the fact that the Dodgers have yet to face real, I mean any competition outside of the NL West plus a hundred other reasons. But it is 13 games, so it does mean something as there are only 149 games left in the season.

Let's say you predicted the Dodgers to win somewhere between 87-92 games before the season started this year. You now have to add around three wins to that total. Why? Well, let's use a 88 win projection as our example. 88 wins in a 162 game season is a winning percentage of 0.5432. On a 13 game pace with a 0.5432 winning percentage the Dodgers should have 7.1 wins. But they don't, they have 10. The Dodgers in this scenario have banked 2.9 wins. That's house money. So take your 88 wins and add 2.9 (let's call it three) wins, which means you have to up your win projection for the Dodgers to 91. Likewise, if you projected them as a 90 win team to start off the season, you now have to bump that up to 93. The same for the other NL West teams. If you thought the Dodgers closest competitor, the Arizona Diamondbacks was going to be an 85 win team, well they are off to a 4-8 start and need to be docked around 2 wins. So you are looking at around a 5 win swing between what you need to adjust your Dodger and Diamondbacks projections to. It still doesn't gaurantee anything, but it's always nice to have the advantage.

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 19th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs J.McDonald	Dodgers	50.10%	8.95

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 18th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Rockies	Dodgers	A.Cook vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.42%	8.00

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Giants vs Dodgers, April 16th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs E.Stults	Dodgers	65.90%	8.05

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Giants vs Dodgers, April 15th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.10%	7.54

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Giants vs Dodgers, April 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	R.Johnson vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	61.55%	7.28

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Diamondbacks	R.Wolf vs D.Haren	Diamondbacks	57.09%	9.07

Notes: I put Juan Pierre in for Matt Kemp. With Pierre in the lineup, the Diamondbacks have a win probability of 57.09%, and with Kemp in the lineup that win probability drops down to 54.89%. This is a fairly large difference. It appears as if the Dodgers and Joe Torre have confused Christmas gift giving and Easter.

Pinnacle Sports, Baseball Odds

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 11th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Diamondbacks	E.Stults vs Y.Petit	Diamondbacks	50.10%	9.91

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	J.McDonald vs J.Garland	Diamondbacks	54.71%	10.31

Who is Likely to have the Most...
Category	Most	2nd Most	3rd Most	4th Most	5th Most
Home Runs	M.Ramirez	C.Young	M.Reynolds	J.Upton	C.Jackson
Triples	S.Drew	O.Hudson	C.Young	F.Lopez	J.Upton
Doubles	O.Hudson	M.Ramirez	C.Tracy	A.Ethier	J.Loney
Singles	R.Furcal	O.Hudson	F.Lopez	M.Ramirez	M.Kemp
Walks	S.Drew	F.Lopez	C.Tracy	M.Montero	M.Ramirez
Note: Figures may change once lineup is announced.

Dodgers vs Padres, April 9th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	Kershaw vs Correia	Dodgers	54.20%	7.43

Opening Series of 2009...

I used my simulator to play the first six games of the Dodgers 2009 schedule. I put Manny Ramirez on the Dodgers roster and ran 10,000 simulations of each game. Here is what the simulator expects.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	Kuroda vs Peavy	Padres	50.53%	7.14
Dodgers	Padres	Wolf vs Young	Padres	50.33%	7.33
Dodgers	Padres	Billingsley vs Silva	Dodgers	61.12%	8.00