Thursday, June 11, 2009

Dodgers / Rangers, Series Preview


Interleague play revs up again this weekend as the Dodgers head out to hot & humid Arlington Texas for a three game series sandwiched in between two off days.

The Rangers head into the series at the top of the AL West with a 34-25 record and a 31-27 pythagorean record. The Rangers, like the Dodgers, have "made hay" by beating up on teams in their own division. The Rangers are 13-3 vs the AL West and also have an AL best 25-10 record against sub .500 teams.

The Dodgers make the scamper down to Texas with the best record in all of baseball at 39-22. The Dodgers also match the Rangers 25-10 record against sub .500 teams. The Rangers have a few key injuries, as CF-Josh Hamilton recently was added to the DL, and closer Frank Francisco is nursing a sore shoulder and is questionable for the entire series.

Texas Ranger blog Lonestar Ball notes recent Ranger offensive problems, mainly due to the lack of taking walks and the teams low rank in OBP. Hopefully, this is something that Dodger pitchers can take advantage of.


Team Comparisons... Know Your Enemy
Team Hitting Arm Range R Error R Overall Fielding SP RP Overall Pitching Team Total
Units RAR MLB Rank MLB Rank MLB Rank UZR RAR RAR WAR WAR
Dodgers 28.4 -4.1 -1.7 3.7 0.3 54.9 20.9 8.1 18.7
Rangers 20.1 1.2 16.9 4.2 22.6 39.0 5.1 4.3 15.3
Dodgers MLB Rank 7th 14th 17th 7th 16th 10th 8th 6th 3rd
Rangers MLB Rank 10th 14th 3rd 6th 1st 20th 20th 23rd 6th


Who's Been Hot and or Lucky Recently
Player PA wOBA OPS BABIP
A.Ethier 32 .565 1.438 .421
D.Murphy 25 .443 .962 .474
M.Kemp 29 .408 .932 .474
N.Cruz 32 .379 .915 .235


Who's Been Cold or Unlucky Recently
Player PA wOBA OPS BABIP
J.Saltalamacchia 22 .155 .325 .273
R.Martin 23 .179 .360 .200
M.Byrd 30 .228 .543 .350
C.Blake 24 .232 .523 .278


Top Three Dodgers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 2.9
1. 2B-Orlando Hudson 1.9
3. 3B-Casey Blake 1.8

Top Three Dodgers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. *Chad Billingsley 2.5
2. *Randy Wolf 1.0
3. Clayton Kershaw 0.9

Top Three Dodgers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Jonathan Broxton 1.8
2. Ramon Troncoso 0.7
3. Ronald Belisario 0.4

Top Three Dodgers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. CF-Matt Kemp 7.6
2. RF-Jamie Hoffman 2.9
3. 3B-Casey Blake 2.5

Top Three Rangers Hitters by 2009 WAR:
1. RF-Nelson Cruz 2.9
2. 2B-Ian Kinsler 2.6
3. SS-Elvis Andrus 1.4

Top Three Rangers Starting Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Kevin Millwood 1.0
2. *Scott Feldman 0.9
3. Matt Harrison 0.8

Top Three Rangers Relief Pitchers by 2009 WAR:
1. Frank Francisco 0.7
2. Darren O'Day 0.4
3. Jason Jennings 0.2

Top Three Rangers Fielders by 2009 UZR:
1. RF-Nelson Cruz 10.3
2. SS-Elvis Andrus 6.0
3. 2B-Ian Kinsler 5.6

* Denotes a pitcher is pitching in this series.

Defense: Slick fielding is the apparent strength of this Texas Ranger team. Right fielder and slugger Nelson Cruz leads the way with an MLB 2nd best UZR of 10.3. Shortstop and AL ROY Leading Candidate Elvis Andrus leads all shortstops with a UZR of 7.2 and Ian Kinsler makes baseballs top 20 fielders with a UZR of 5.6. Matt Kemp and his UZR of 7.8 is the Dodgers only player in the UZR defensive top 20.

Offense: The Dodgers have seen their offense slip to 28.4 runs above replacement, as a few of their players begin their regression to the mean. But they are still good enough for a rank of 7th in the MLB. The Rangers are 10th, coming in at 20.1 runs above replacement. The Dodgers will have the luxury of using a DH in this series, and Jon Weisman predicts that Blake Dewitt should see consistent playing time due to the extra hitter.

Starting Pitching: The starting pitching matchups heavily favor the Dodgers. The Dodgers will arguably be using their three best starting pitchers (Billingsley, Wolf and Kuroda). The Rangers, best matchup will be saturday when Scott Feldman faces off with Randy Wolf.

Relief Pitching: The Dodgers will have a big advantage in any close, late inning games. The Dodgers have by far the best reliever in this series in Jonathan Broxton. Broxton leads all relief pitchers in MLB with a 2009 WAR of 1.8. Other competent options for Joe Torre out of the bullpen are, Ramon Troncoso (FIP: 2.95, HR/9: 0.00), Ronald Belisario (FIP: 3.48, K/9: 8.23, HR/9: 0.51), Cory Wade (FIP: 3.20, HR/9: 0.00) and rookie left hander Brent Leach (FIP: 2.45, K/9: 9.28, HR/9: 0.00). Frank Francisco, the only effective pitcher out of the Rangers bullpen is nursing a sore shoulder and is questionable for the series. The Rangers next best reliever, Darren O'Day has been decent (K/9: 8.05) but also very lucky (BABIP: .262, LOB% 88.0%). Temporary closer C.J. Wilson has been very liberal with his walks (BB/9: 4.44, FIP: 4.59).

Notes of Interest: The most difficult part of watching this series will be when most hated former Dodger Andruw Jones comes up to bat. Jones, a total bust for the Dodgers has actually been hitting pretty well for the Rangers in limited action.

Park Factors: Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
Year Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
2009 1.172 1.064 1.123 1.248 3.250 1.160
2008 1.142 1.229 1.070 1.042 2.227 1.030
2007 0.979 1.000 1.024 0.943 1.652 0.945
Source: ESPN Park Factors

Last 10 Games, Dodgers: 6-4
Last 20 Games, Dodgers: 12-8
Away Record: 17-12

Last 10 Games, Rangers: 4-6
Last 20 Games, Rangers: 10-10
Home Record: 18-11


Series Pitching Matchups
6/12: H.Kuroda vs V.Padilla
6/13: R.Wolf vs S.Feldman
6/14: C.Billingsley vs D.Holland


Source for stats: Fangraphs and Baseball Reference

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