Monday, February 16, 2009

Opening Series of 2009...

I used my simulator to play the first six games of the Dodgers 2009 schedule. I put Manny Ramirez on the Dodgers roster and ran 10,000 simulations of each game. Here is what the simulator expects.


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Padres Kuroda vs Peavy Padres 50.53% 7.14
Dodgers Padres Wolf vs Young Padres 50.33% 7.33
Dodgers Padres Billingsley vs Silva Dodgers 61.12% 8.00

4 comments:

Phil said...

Not a bad start for a 500 team.

Webmeister said...

The expected win/loss record after 6 games is 3.11 and 2.89 (W/L), which gives an expected winning percentage of .520. Most likely outcome is 3-3. I guess it's not a bad start considering it's a six game road trip, with three of the games against your biggest competitor. I think with Manny on the team the Dodgers are no longer a .500 team. Eventually, (when I have time) I will run the complete 162 game schedule (over and over) to see how many wins the team comes up with.
vr, Xei

Sam Stone said...

I'd be interested to learn a bit more about your simulator and what kind of results you've had before.

Thanks,

Sam

Los Angeles Apartments

Webmeister said...

it's done pretty well. All the sims from 2008 are in the archives if you want to dig through them. 2009 results won't be published on a regular basis. Just Dodger games only.
vr, Xei