Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Dodgers 2009 Offseason WAR

This offseason I will be keeping track of the Dodgers team WAR tally. That is, how many wins is the current Dodger roster expected to have based on summing the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of each individual player. As free agent signings and possible trades occur, I will update this table. Where the Dodgers have a hole in their roster, I have added a replacement level player or something close to it. The primary source of player projections I am using is ZiPS, and where ZiPs is an extreme outlier, I then use either Marcel or Chone.

Analysis: The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez. I have him worth 4.16 WAR using Chone projections, and docking him 5 runs for defense.

Last Updated: 04-MAR-2009
Hitters
Player Position Playing Time wOBA Offensive WAR Defensive WAR Baserunning WAR Position Adjustment Total WAR
R.Martin C 80% .355 1.15 0.0 0.01 3.0 3.40
B.Ausmus C 20% .288 -2.96 -0.4 0.0 3.0 -0.07
J.Loney 1B 85% .352 0.73 -0.5 0.0 1.0 1.05
Repl 1B 1B 15% .319 -1.00 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.00
O.Hudson 2B 75% .336 -0.18 0.5 0.0 2.0 1.74
M.Loretta 2B 25% .319 -1.18 -0.10 0.0 2.0 0.18
C.Blake 3B 75% .338 0.17 -0.4 0.0 2.3 0.79
B.Dewitt 3B 25% .314 -1.47 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.53
R.Furcal SS 75% .338 0.17 0.25 0.25 2.5 2.38
C.Hu SS 25% .287 -2.81 0.4 0.1 2.5 0.05
M.Ramirez LF 85% .402 3.90 -0.5 0.0 1.5 4.16
M.Kemp CF 85% .350 0.90 -0.5 0.5 2.5 2.89
A.Ethier RF 80% .362 1.59 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.55
J.Repko CF 25% .317 -1.27 0.25 0.0 2.5 0.36
J.Pierre LF/CF 25% .299 -2.07 0.1 0.75 1.5 0.07
Hitting Total 19.89

Pitchers
Name Pos IP HR BB SO FIP ERA Leverage WAR
C.Billingsley SP 204 14 73 195 3.25 0.0 4.06
H.Kuroda SP 171 14 42 103 3.80 0.0 2.42
C.Kershaw SP 175 17 76 135 4.22 0.0 1.69
R.Wolf SP 170 19 68 140 4.21 0.0 1.67
J.McDonald SP 70 11 29 48 5.11 0.0 0.02
E.Stults SP 60 9 22 39 4.95 0.0 0.12
J.Schmidt SP 40 5 16 33 4.38 0.0 0.32
R.Troncoso SP 50 6 19 38 4.38 0.0 0.40
J.Broxton RP 65 4 23 81 2.57 1.0 2.51
H.Guo RP 70 5 27 82 2.94 0.6 1.90
C.Wade RP 90 15 23 59 4.82 0.3 0.14
R.Troncoso RP 65 6 26 55 3.91 0.1 0.60
G.Mota RP 50 7 21 42 4.60 0.0 0.01
C.Vargas RP 50 6 20 39 4.40 0.0 0.12
J.McDonald RP 40 5 17 31 4.55 0.0 0.03
E.Stults RP 30 4 11 22 4.57 0.0 0.02
J.Schmidt RP 30 3 13 28 3.93 0.0 0.22
S.Elbert RP 15 3 7 10 5.87 0.0 -0.19
Bullpen 5.33
Starters 10.70
All Pitchers 16.03

Team Totals
Type WAR
Hitters 19.89
Rotation 10.70
Bullpen 5.33
Team Total 85.92

13 comments:

Robin H said...

This is a great idea..However, I noticed that your WAR results for the starters are much lower than my calculations. Are you adding an adjustment or a different replacement level than .390?

Webmeister said...

Robin, I am calculating pitcher WAR using FIP-ERA not winning percentage. Perhaps that's where our differences lie? Feel free to post your WAR results for the Dodger starters. Thanks for the reply.
vr, Xei

Robin H said...

Well, based off the formula I'm using (from Tango Tiger's "How To Calculate WAR" - using NL starter replacement level of .390, league average ERA of 4.41 based off 2008 NL totals for starters), my WAR results are much higher. For instance, Billingsley comes in at 5.55 WAR and Kuroda at 3.37 WAR. I'm calculating based off the IP and FIP you have listed.

I'm mostly curious because I'm trying to get down the process and formula. Trying to figure out if something is off in my process. If you could give any input, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!

Webmeister said...

Robin, in Billingsley's case for example, I take his FIP ERA which I have listed as 3.25. FIP Expected Runs becomes IP*FIP = 204*3.25= 73.76. Replacement Level ERA (park adjusted) is 5.14, which makes Replacement Level Expected Runs for someone with 204 IPs, 204*5.14= 116.4. Which puts Billingsley at 116.4 minus 73.76 equals 42.65 Runs Above Replacement Level. Divide this number by 10.5 to convert to WAR and you get 4.06

There are other methods to calculate pitcher WAR, but 5.5 is a little too high for Billingsley imo.
vr, Xei

Dave. B said...

I don't think that's right. A replacement level starter would only pitch 150 innings. The other 55 innings or so would be attributed to a relief pitcher. A replacement level starter has an ERA of 5.5 while a RP is 4.5. That would make Billingsley WAR less than you have. That's atleast my understand of how to calculate SPs WAR.

Webmeister said...

Dave, I have the non-park adjusted FIP ERA at right around 5.5 like you mentioned, but I like to park adjust my stats and in my calculations that brought it down to 5.14 for Dodger pitchers. To tell you the truth, I am not sure about the second half of your paragraph. I see your logic, but there should be some offsetting factors for not wearing down the bullpen. Thanks for the enlightened comment(s).
vr, Xei

Steven said...

How can a catcher's defensive WAR be zero?

Mets Tailgate said...

Webmeister,

Bare with me cause I'm new to this fascinating WAR stuff. I read Tango's explanations of it and am confused about your defensive adjustments. My understanding was that wins/runs are deducted for positions like 1B, LF, RF. How did you figure these adjustments?

Mets Tailgate said...

Nevermind I'm an idiot - didn't account for adding 2.25 wins to adjust to replacement level. Disregard last communication, ha.

Brendan S. said...

Hey Xei, I love your work, but I think there is something wrong with your math. I posted this at Beyond the Boxscore so I'll just paste what I wrote there:

Inconsistencies. Okay, not sure if I’m totally off here. I was comparing the Dodgers WAR and Astros WAR, mostly because I’m hoping the Dodgers WAR isn’t really 79. :-)

But it seems the Astros calculations and the Dodger ones aren’t consistent. For example, Clayton Kershaw is projected for 165 IP with a 4.17 ERA for 1.69 WAR. Meanwhile Wandy Rodriguez projects to 150 IP with a 4.16 ERA for 2.4 WAR. Either I’m missing something or one of these projections is off, because Kershaw should be more valuable than Wandy.

And for the lineup:

Again the Dodgers projection's are off. Compared to Xeifrank’s Dodger projections at least, not sure if you guys used different projections. But he has the Dodgers position players worth 14.74 wins, whereas here they are worth 17.18 wins.

Not sure if your doing the math wrong or not, I just did this because hopefully we are above 79 wins.

Webmeister said...

Brendan, I am park adjusting my stats, not sure what others are doing. Also, FIP-ERA should be used, not ERA. Not sure if that was just a typo on your part. Also, for the most part I am using ZIPS projections unless their projections are an outlier to the other projection systems.
vr, Xei

Brendan S. said...

Right, but isn't Dodger Stadium a neutral park? Comparing your projections to others on Beyond the Boxscore it seems like Dodger pitchers are consistently valued lower.

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