2012 Organization Rankings (11-20)

11-20

2012 Rank	2011 Rank	Team	Skinny
20	26	Mets	Haven't won in a while. Future looks mediocre.
18T	25	Royals	Likely 3rd year of win total improvement in a row.
18T	16	Athletics	Miniscule payroll. Amazingly they aren't MLB's doormat.
17	12	Dodgers	New ownership should help this slightly above average team.
16	27	Diamondbacks	Solid but not spectacular in almost all facets.
15	6	Twins	Big dropper. Not enough wins for the payroll it puts out.
14	7	Giants	Another big dropper. Minor league system is depleted plus a few bloated contracts.
13	24	Tigers	In total control of AL Central.
12	15	Padres	Top 2 minor league system with decent success with tiny payroll.
11	10	Reds	Good team with manageable payroll.

Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Prospectus
Forbes

2012 Organizational Rankings

It is time to unviel the Dodger Sims 2012 Organizational Rankings. Here is the link to last years rankings. And below is a brief description of the methodology used. I think of these rankings as the MARCEL of rankings. To borrow from Tangotiger who puts out the MARCEL player projections as a bare minimum methodology that any other system should be able to beat, I put out my organizational rankings in the same light. Mine are automated and take in to account the bare minimum data that one should be using to rank the top MLB organizations.

Methodology
1. Recent success and future forecasted success (winning games, making playoffs). This takes into consideration the number of games the team won over the past three years, along with their expected win total from Vegas for the 2012 season, plus a multiplier for number of times the team has made the playoffs over the past three years.
2. Minor league system (Baseball Prospectus)
3. Market Cap / Value of team (Forbes)
4. $Win efficiency (2012 Expected Wins above replacment per millions in projected payroll). The number of wins above 48 that the team is expected to have in the 2012 season (Vegas over/under) divided by its expected 2012 payroll.

Weights
1. 50%
2. 25%
3. 10%
4. 15%


The list will come out in three groups (1 - 10, 11 - 20 and 21 - 30). Here is the grouping of 21-30.

2012 Rank	2011 Rank	Team	Skinny
30	T29	Astros	No recent playoff appearances, poor minor league system and little hope on the horizon.
29	T29	Orioles	A very small step ahead of the Astros. Minor league system has signs of life.
28	20	Indians	2007 was last playoff appearance. Minor league system is poor, but makes decent use out of small payroll.
27	28	Pirates	They don't win much, but average minor league system keeps them out of the cellar.
T25	18	Marlins	Big playoff drought but team is getting better. Minor league system is very bad.
T25	23	Nationals	Team is making strides. Need to start winning more to move up in rankings.
24	17	White Sox	Three year playoff drought and likely worst minor league system.
23	21	Cubs	The only MLB team with a downward trend in wins from 2007 through 2011 (97, 83, 75, 71).
22	22	Mariners	Stuck in the mud but decent minor league system raises hopes.
21	19	Brewers	Decent recent success but trending down with loss of Fielder and below average minor league depth.

Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Prospectus
Forbes

Best Dodgers Lineup

Every season there is much talk about lineups. Which lineup will score the most runs and win the most games. There are many theories about how the batting order should be constructed. Speed and on base guy(s) near the top followed by your best power hitters. I have put this theory to the test using my simulator, which plays 100K games using different lineups to see which one produces the most runs and wins. In this exercise I made the Dodgers the away team, always giving them 9 at bats in every regulation length game. I kept the home team constant, and in this exercise I had the Dodgers facing the Washington Nationals. I had the Nationals throw (LHP) Gio Gonzalez and (RHP) Jordan Zimmerman in an attempt to find the Dodgers best lineup to use against both left handed and right handed pitchers. Of course I did not run through every single permuation of lineup possibilities, but after a while you can easily hone in on the best ones. And without any further ado, here is the Dodgers best lineups vs LHP and RHP. Note that in this exercise, I used the 2012 Zips Projections for all Dodgers hitters.

vs LHP Lineup	vs RHP Lineup
A.J. Ellis	A.J. Ellis
Andre Ethier	Andre Ethier
Matt Kemp	Matt Kemp
Juan Rivera	James Loney
James Loney	Juan Rivera
Juan Uribe	Juan Uribe
Mark Ellis	Mark Ellis
Dee Gordon	Dee Gordon
Pitchers Spot	Pitchers Spot

Notes: Zips loves A.J. Ellis' OBP and hates Dee Gordon's OBP. The simulator is pretty consistent on which lineup it likes the best facing both a LHP or a RHP pitcher with the only difference being the swap of Loney/Rivera in the number four and five holes. Facing a RHP the Dodgers did score slightly more runs with Adam Kennedy playing 2B instead of Mark Ellis, but the runs were more than lost on the defensive side. How much does it hurt the Dodgers batting Gordon and M.Ellis at the top of the lineup as opposed to what the simulator says is the best lineup? Against the LHP around 1 win and against the RHP lineup around 0.15 wins. Probably not enough to get red in the face about, especially against RHP.

www.onlinecasinoclub32.com

The Ichiro Lineup Shuffle

There has been much discussion about the Seattle Mariners recent decision to drop Ichiro Suzuki down in the lineup from leadoff to the number three spot. Is it a good decision? Will the Mariners offense benefit? It is difficult to say as Ichiro claims that he can change his approach and hit for more power while giving up batting average points at the plate (due to more strike outs). Any change in approach is likely a push when you look at how it will likely effect his wOBA. More power and more strike outs will likely keep his wOBA numbers around the same, at the very least still within the noise.

What I have done is run the Mariners lineup through my simulator with a couple of different lineups. In this exercise I want to see what kind of lineup the Mariners would score the most runs with. And today I take a look at the Mariners lineup against a RHP. To give the Mariners 9 (or more) innings worth of at-bats in every game I made them the away team and picked the Chicago White Sox and Phil Humber as their opponents. I ran my simulator with four different Mariner lineups, keeping all other variables the same and take a look at how many runs they scored per game (100K games simulated) and average win expectancy. Here are the lineups and the results.

Lineup #1	Figgins	Ackley	Suzuki	Carp	Montero	Smoak	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan
Lineup #2	Suzuki	Gutierrez	Ackley	Montero	Carp	Smoak	Olivo	Figgins	Ryan
Lineup #3	Figgins	Suzuki	Smoak	Montero	Carp	Ackley	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan
Lineup #4	Ackley	Suzuki	Smoak	Montero	Carp	Figgins	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan

And now the results...

Lineup	Runs/Game	WPct
Lineup #1	4.05113	47.430%
Lineup #2	4.05001	47.261%
Lineup #3	4.03139	47.161%
Lineup #4	4.02156	47.020%

So as you can see, there is no difference between a lineup that bats Figgins leadoff and Ichiro third than one that bats Ichiro leadoff. The difference is so minimal that the team is likely better off just letting players bat where they are the most comfortable at. Feel free to tweet or email me your own lineup (vs RHP, LHP), I will gladly run it through my simulator and post the results in the table here. Next up I will look at a vs LHP lineup.

... And here is Part II, vs LHP lineup (Danks)

Lineup #1L	Figgins	Ackley	Suzuki	Carp	Montero	Smoak	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan
Lineup #2L	Suzuki	Gutierrez	Ackley	Montero	Carp	Smoak	Olivo	Figgins	Ryan
Lineup #3L	Montero	Carp	Suzuki	Smoak	Figgins	Ackley	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan
Lineup #4L	Ackley	Figgins	Suzuki	Montero	Carp	Smoak	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan
Lineup #5L	Suzuki	Smoak	Figgins	Montero	Carp	Ackley	Gutierrez	Olivo	Ryan

And now the results...

Lineup	Runs/Game	WPct
Lineup #3L	3.96294	46.1844%
Lineup #1L	3.95466	46.0012%
Lineup #5L	3.95412	46.1896%
Lineup #4L	3.95362	46.0384%
Lineup #2L	3.9322	45.8776%

Skinny: So the best lineup vs left handed pitchers was just one that was sorted from highest wOBA to lowest wOBA vs LHP with the lineup that was tops against the RHP coming in 2nd. Makes me wonder if the lineup sorted from highest to lowest wOBA would also come out on top vs the RHP. Guess I will have to run that one again and see.

Well, as it turns out the same lineup (Lineup #3L) also has the same wOBA order against RHP as it does against LHP. Lineup #3L against RHP (Humber) scored 4.0517 runs per game which also puts it first in the vs RHP list. So there you have it. According to my simulator the Mariners would actually be best off by just ordering their lineup from best to worst hitters. In other words, give your best hitters the most plate appearances. But we are only talking around two tenths of a win over 162 games vs the wOBA sorted lineup and the (Figgins, Ackley, Suzuki) lineup. Worth worrying about? Nope!

Here are the output wOBA's for each Mariners player in this exercise. Keep in mind this is different than the input wOBA used. The output wOBA is effected by the quality of opposing starting pitcher and relief pitcher as well as the the park the player is hitting in, if he is at home or away and the handedness matchup.

Player	Output wOBA vs Humber	Output wOBA vs Danks
Figgins	0.327	0.323
Ackley	0.328	0.317
Suzuki	0.334	0.329
Montero	0.349	0.361
Carp	0.337	0.332
Smoak	0.335	0.329
Gutierrez	0.303	0.307
Olivo	0.297	0.303
Ryan	0.292	0.298

Note: My own set of proprietary hitter and pitcher projections were used.

Winning Time

Here is a preliminary look at 2012 MLB win totals from my simulator. I say preliminary because I am still only going five starting pitchers deep on each team as rotation depth is still shaking out for many teams. Feel free to dock or add a few wins here and there for teams that may or may not have healthy arms in their rotation. Along with my win numbers, I have listed a few other sources who have put out 2012 win totals. They are the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog and the Atlantis Sportsbook in Reno Nevada. Below are the results for four of the sources used. If you know of any other sources, please feel free to drop me a line and let me know. Along with the win totals, I listed the average and standard deviation of each team's projection along with the standard deviation of each projection source.

Team	Dodger Sims	RLYW Cairo	RLYW Marcel	Atlantis Casino	BetOnline	Average	Standard Dev
Arizona Diamondbacks	81.03	84	85	84.5	84.5	83.81	1.59
Atlanta Braves	83.3	85	89	86.5	83.5	85.46	2.36
Baltimore Orioles	76.39	70	70	70.5	71	71.58	2.72
Boston Red Sox	87.57	92	90	87.5	87.5	88.91	2.03
Chicago Cubs	73.82	71	70	73.5	73.5	72.36	1.74
Chicago White Sox	78.48	74	79	76.5	77.5	77.10	1.98
Cincinnati Reds	86.59	87	89	86.5	87	87.22	1.02
Cleveland Indians	76.96	84	83	75.5	75.5	78.99	4.17
Colorado Rockies	87.88	81	85	82.5	81.5	83.58	2.86
Detroit Tigers	90.81	88	84	94.5	94	90.26	4.38
Houston Astros	65.35	60	66	62.5	62.5	63.27	2.43
Kansas City Royals	74.69	74	79	78.5	78.5	76.94	2.39
Los Angeles Angels	91.37	91	87	89.5	89.5	89.67	1.72
Los Angeles Dodgers	78.93	75	76	81.5	81.5	78.59	3.03
Miami Marlins	82.41	82	80	82.5	82.5	81.88	1.07
Milwaukee Brewers	83.23	86	81	82.5	81.5	82.85	1.96
Minnesota Twins	72.61	67	68	74.5	74	71.22	3.49
New York Mets	73.2	75	74	74.5	74.5	74.24	0.68
New York Yankees	91.34	97	92	93.5	93	93.37	2.20
Oakland Athletics	71.37	76	82	72.5	73	74.97	4.28
Philadelphia Phillies	92.69	92	90	95.5	95.5	93.14	2.37
Pittsburgh Pirates	73.17	68	72	73.5	73	71.93	2.27
San Diego Padres	69.44	76	75	70.5	70.5	72.29	2.98
San Francisco Giants	85.28	85	85	87.5	87.5	86.06	1.32
Seattle Mariners	71.09	74	76	72.5	72.5	73.22	1.86
St. Louis Cardinals	94.29	90	84	87.5	87	88.56	3.85
Tampa Bay Rays	83.1	92	88	87.5	87.5	87.62	3.15
Texas Rangers	97.61	92	87	94.5	94	93.02	3.92
Toronto Blue Jays	74.16	78	81	81	81.5	79.13	3.11
Washington Nationals	81.85	86	83	80.5	81	82.47	2.19
Standard Deviation	8.32	9.12	7.11	8.32	8.16	7.86

Note: Last updated 2/21

It's Time For Blogger Baseball

This Saturday February 11th I will proudly be playing in the first annual, Dodgers Blogger Softball Tournament at the beautiful Big League Dreams replica fields in the not so beautiful city of West Covina put on and hosted by the wonderful Left Field Pavillion blog.

I will proudly be playing for the Dodger Thoughts team, coached by King Daddy of all the Dodger blogs Jon Weisman. The tournament is for charity, most notably it is for the Los Angeles Food Bank. All entry fee money will be going to the Food Bank and players will be donating food items at the tournament. Our not so star studded team will be playing games at 9AM (Fenway Park), 11AM (Tigers Stadium) and 2PM (Dodger Stadium).

Jon Weisman may be live tweeting from the tournament. So feel free to follow him at @DodgerThoughts for the live play by play blows.

Poker And Baseball

When you think of the game of baseball, you think of 9 men on a field of play with a common goal. Major league players have dedicated their lives to this pursuit and, at least in most cases, are among the best athletes in the world. There is another game with similarities to baseball, and that is the game of poker. While you may not think that a card game is similar to America's national pastime, take a look at some of the reasons below.

First, contrary to the common sight of a poker player in many card rooms, poker players have to be in peak mental and even physical conditioning to handle the long hours at a poker table. Take a look at pokerlistings and other sites that report on players. Long gone are the days of out of shape players dominating the game. Now you have players that are not just focused in mine, but also take care of themselves physically. Of course, just like baseball, you do have a few players could use some extra work in the gym.

Also, just like baseball, you typically have nine men at the table all focused on a common goal. Granted that baseball is a team sport and the nine men are working together, but they all have a goal and that is to win. Poker players are no different in their goals, they are just going about it a bit differently as the game is an individual game with a few rare exceptions.

Poker also involves a great amount of strategy much like baseball. Each situation in poker is unique and requires that players be one their toes and alert as to the changing conditions. Poker players not only play the game, but at the same time act as their own manager. They scout out the players, watch for any weaknesses during the game, and then make moves and adjust their play to take advantage of the current situation.

It is obvious that poker will never overtake baseball as the national pastime, but the game is quickly rising to be a major hobby for many players. If you look at a list of online poker games and sites, you can see just how easy it is for a player to get involved. Also, once someone gets around 40, Jamie Moyer and Julio Franco being obvious exceptions, you can continue playing poker. So if you don't already play, check it out. You may just find your newest hobby.

Diamondbacks Get Worse

Good news for Dodgers and most other NL West fans. The defending 2011 NL West Champion Arizona Diamondbacks have signed a bad pitcher. Joe Saunders signed a one year deal worth $6M. Saunders is barely a replacement level pitcher. His strikeout totals underwhelm. And by underwhelm, I mean they are really really bad. Over the past two years, Saunders has a K/9 of 4.81. Well, maybe he has a really low walk rate to partially make up for it. Hmmmm... his BB/9 over that same period of time is 2.84 which is hardly anything to write home about. Well, maybe he is incredibly talented at forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground. A quick look shows a GB/FB of 1.23 over that same time period, also nothing special. Those are some pretty bad peripherals. Perhaps not Scott Kazmir bad, but when your top peripheral comparisons are the likes of Brad Bergesen, Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez you are in pretty low territory. This looks like a panic move, the Diamondbacks would've been better off letting their herd of minor league aces fight for the last spot with a couple of low cost NRIs. Don't block them with Joe Saunders who doesn't miss too many starts. Here is the rest of the list (Top 25) of Joe Saunders comparables based on the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats for starters over the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
1	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
2	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
3	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
4	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
5	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
6	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
7	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
8	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
9	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
10	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
11	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
12	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
13	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
14	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
15	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
16	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
17	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
18	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
19	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
20	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
21	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
22	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
23	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
24	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
25	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82

Pick Your Poison, A Sad Fan's Guide To The Dodgers Off-Season

Many people have railed against the off-season signings Ned Colletti has made for the Dodgers. Colletti was quick to fill out most of his roster this off-season. And in doing so made a few questionable signings. None of the signings as a single entity really hurt the Dodgers chances, but in aggregate they have possibly kept the Dodgers from making the big splash they need to compete for a playoff chance in the next two years.

Instead of signing the likes of Mark Ellis, Juan Rivera, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Adam Kennedy and Tony Gwynn Jr., the Dodgers could've used in house replacements making close to league minimum like Jerry Sands (LF), Justin Sellers (2B) and Nathan Eovaldi (P) plus probably few other replacement level players or NRIs. The savings many argued would allow the Dodgers to bid on such high profiled sluggers like 1B free agent Prince Fielder and maybe there'd be enough left over to sign Kuroda for a one year $13M deal (or along those lines).

Sure, the short-term money may come close to adding up - but all you are really doing is giving yourself a shot at making a bid for a player like Fielder. There is no gaurantee that you would win the bidding for him. And no gaurantee that he'd even want to come to play for the Dodgers. If he didn't there would be a mad scramble to put together the pieces of a team that would have some reasonable depth like the team currently assembled does. Depth is an important and often overlooked part of a team. The Dodgers as currently constructed have depth, perhaps not assembled in the most financially efficient way - but they have depth.

The Dodgers really have three possible big fish they can land. Two in-house and one in the free agent market. That being Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Prince Fielder. In my opinion there is NO WAY the Dodgers are signing all three to big long-term deals. And there is really no way you can plan for a Prince Fielder short-term deal. Thus if I had to take my choice of two out of three of these players signing long-term with us it has to be Kemp and Kershaw. Kemp has already signed and now Kershaw is headed to arbitration a few months after winning the 2011 Cy Young award. There is a possibility that the Dodgers and Kershaw will use this process to ink out a long-term contract with Kershaw buying out his remaining three years of arbitration and a few of his first free agency years.

Which scenario would you rather have?

Scenario A: Sellers starting 2B, Fielder signed to 8 year deal, Loney traded for scraps, Sands/Gwynn platoon in LF, Kuroda ($13M), Eovaldi 5th starter. With neither Kemp nor Kershaw signed to long term deals.

Scenario B: What has happened so far with Kershaw extended for 6 years at some fair but pretty high amount.

Yes, there are probably other scenarios but none much different than the two above in terms of landfall off-seasons for the Dodgers. And in the end I am not defending all of Colletti's moves, but there has been nothing done this off-season to harm the Dodgers long-term (2+ years) chances of competing. And lastly, one other thing to keep in mind is that the Dodgers are up for sale (finally!!!). McCourt wants to maximize the price he can get for the Dodgers. And in doing so he appears to be making an attempt to limit the risk of the Dodgers ability to compete in the win column in the long-term - thus all the short term non bargain contracts. In other words... be patient and cross your fingers that the new ownership puts people in place that more than half-way know what they are doing.

Aaron Harang, The Worst Of The Bunch

Time to move on and look at the comparables for the last Dodgers starting pitcher. Keep in mind I am looking at 2010/2011 data using the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats. These stats are used because they are important skill stats, only slightly effected by such things as defense and park factors. Below are Aaron Harang's closest comparable starting pitchers along with links to the other four Dodgers pitchers I've already looked at.

Clayton Kershaw | Chad Billingsley | Ted Lilly | Chris Capuano

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
1	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
2	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
3	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
4	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
5	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
6	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
7	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
8	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
9	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
10	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
11	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
12	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
13	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
14	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
15	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
16	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
17	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
18	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
19	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
20	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
21	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
22	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
23	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
24	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
25	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
26	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
27	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
28	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
29	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
30	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
31	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
32	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
33	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
34	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
35	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
38	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
39	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
40	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
41	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
42	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
43	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
44	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
45	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
46	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
47	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
48	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
49	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
50	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
51	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
52	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
53	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
54	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
55	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
56	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
57	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
58	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
59	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
60	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
61	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
62	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
63	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
64	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
65	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
66	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
67	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
68	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
69	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
70	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
71	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
72	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
73	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
74	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
75	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
76	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
77	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
78	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
79	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
80	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
81	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
82	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
83	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
84	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
85	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
86	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
87	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
88	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
89	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
90	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
91	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
92	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
93	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
94	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
95	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
96	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
97	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
98	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
99	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
100	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
101	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
102	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
103	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
104	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
105	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
106	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
107	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
110	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
111	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
112	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
113	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
114	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
115	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
116	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
117	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
118	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
119	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
120	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
121	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
122	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
123	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
124	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
125	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
126	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
127	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
128	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
129	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
130	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
131	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
132	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
133	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
134	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
135	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
136	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
137	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
138	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
139	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
140	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
141	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
142	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
143	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
144	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
145	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
146	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
147	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
148	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
149	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
150	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
151	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
152	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
153	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
154	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
157	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
158	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91

Chris Capuano, Better Than You Think

It's time to look at one of the new additions to the Dodgers rotation and which pitchers around the majors have a similar skill set as him. Chris Capuano was signed as a free-agent after leaving the New York Mets. Capuano does have peripherals that compare to some pretty good pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Matt Garza. Capuano did put up much better stats at home than on the road but I am looking at three skill stats in which park factors do not play a big role in. Below are Capuano's closest comparables (using 2010 and 2011 stats, min of 150 IP).

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
1	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
2	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
3	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
4	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
5	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
6	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
7	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
8	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
9	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
10	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
11	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
12	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
13	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
14	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
15	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
16	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
17	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
18	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
19	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
20	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
21	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
24	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
25	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
26	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
27	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
28	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
29	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
30	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
31	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
32	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
35	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
36	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
37	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
38	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
39	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
40	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
41	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
42	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
43	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
44	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
45	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
46	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
47	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
48	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
49	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
50	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
51	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
52	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
53	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
54	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
55	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
56	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
57	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
58	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
59	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
60	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
61	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
62	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
63	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
64	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
65	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
66	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
67	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
68	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
69	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
70	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
71	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
72	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
73	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
74	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
75	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
76	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
77	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
80	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
81	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
82	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
83	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
84	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
85	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
86	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
87	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
88	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
89	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
90	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
91	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
92	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
93	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
94	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
95	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
96	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
97	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
98	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
99	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
100	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
101	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
102	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
103	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
104	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
105	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
106	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
107	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
108	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
111	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
112	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
113	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
114	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
115	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
116	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
117	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
118	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
119	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
120	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
121	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
124	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
125	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
126	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
127	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
128	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
129	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
130	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
131	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
132	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
133	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
134	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
135	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
136	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
137	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
138	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
139	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
140	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
141	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
144	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
145	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
146	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
147	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
148	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
149	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Nobody Wants To Be Ted Lilly

Next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher similarity scores is Ted Lilly the left handed pitcher for the Dodgers that has a tendency to give up a lot of fly balls which in turn leads to a souvenir bonanza for those fans brave enough to sit in the outfield bleachers.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
1	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
2	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
3	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
4	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
5	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
6	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
7	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
8	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
9	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
10	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
11	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
12	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
13	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
14	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
15	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
16	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
17	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
18	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
19	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
20	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
21	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
24	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
25	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
26	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
27	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
28	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
29	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
30	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
31	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
38	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
39	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
40	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
41	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
42	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
43	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
44	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
45	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
46	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
47	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
48	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
49	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
50	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
51	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
52	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
53	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
54	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
55	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
56	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
57	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
58	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
59	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
60	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
61	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
62	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
63	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
64	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
65	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
66	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
67	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
68	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
69	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
70	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
71	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
72	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
73	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
74	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
75	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
76	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
77	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
80	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
81	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
82	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
83	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
84	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
85	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
86	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
87	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
88	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
89	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
90	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
91	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
92	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
93	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
94	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
95	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
96	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
97	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
98	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
99	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
100	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
103	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
104	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
105	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
106	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
107	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
110	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
111	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
112	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
113	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
114	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
115	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
116	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
117	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
118	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
119	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
120	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
121	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
122	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
123	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
124	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
125	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
126	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
127	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
128	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
129	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
130	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
131	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
132	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
133	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
134	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
135	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
136	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
137	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
138	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
139	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
140	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
141	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
144	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
145	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
146	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
147	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
148	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
149	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
152	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
153	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
154	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Chad Billingsley, A Mixed Bag

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Chad Billingsley. There are a mixed bag of pitchers who have a similar skill set as Billingsley. A.J. Burnett is not the best player to be comparable to in the world, yet C.J. Wilson isn't too bad. I will have lists for a few of the other Dodgers starting pitchers up in the next couple of days.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
1	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
2	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
3	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
4	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
5	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
6	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
7	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
8	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
9	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
10	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
11	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
12	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
13	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
14	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
15	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
16	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
17	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
18	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
19	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
20	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
21	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
22	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
23	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
24	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
25	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
26	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
27	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
28	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
29	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
36	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
37	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
38	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
39	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
40	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
41	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
42	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
43	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
44	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
45	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
46	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
47	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
48	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
49	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
50	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
51	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
52	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
53	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
54	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
55	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
56	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
57	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
58	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
59	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
60	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
61	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
62	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
63	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
64	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
65	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
66	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
67	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
68	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
69	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
70	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
71	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
72	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
73	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
74	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
75	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
76	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
77	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
80	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
81	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
82	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
83	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
84	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
85	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
86	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
87	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
88	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
89	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
90	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
91	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
92	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
93	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
94	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
95	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
96	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
97	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
98	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
105	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
106	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
107	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
108	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
109	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
110	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
111	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
112	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
113	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
114	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
115	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
116	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
117	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
118	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
119	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
120	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
121	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
122	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
125	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
126	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
127	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
128	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
131	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
132	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
133	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
134	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
135	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
136	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
137	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
138	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
139	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
140	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
141	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
142	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
143	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
144	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
145	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
146	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
147	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
148	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
149	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
150	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
151	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
152	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
153	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64

Kershaw Wannabes

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. Note this chart was revised when first brought to my attention that I had only included 2011 data.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
1	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
2	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
3	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
4	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
5	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
6	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
7	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
8	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
9	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
10	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
11	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
12	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
14	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
15	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
16	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
17	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
18	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
19	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
20	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
21	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
22	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
23	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
24	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
25	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
26	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
27	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
28	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
29	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
32	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
33	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
34	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
35	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
36	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
37	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
38	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
39	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
40	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
41	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
42	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
43	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
44	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
45	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
46	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
47	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
48	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
49	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
50	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
51	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
52	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
53	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
54	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
55	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
56	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
57	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
58	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
59	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
60	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
61	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
62	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
63	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
64	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
65	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
66	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
67	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
68	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
69	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
70	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
71	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
72	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
73	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
74	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
75	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
76	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
77	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
80	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
81	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
82	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
83	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
84	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
85	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
86	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
87	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
88	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
89	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
90	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
91	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
92	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
93	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
94	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
95	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
96	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
97	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
98	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
101	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
102	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
105	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
106	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
107	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
108	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
111	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
112	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
113	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
114	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
115	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
116	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
117	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
118	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
119	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
120	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
121	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
125	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
126	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
127	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
128	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
131	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
132	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
133	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
134	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
135	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
136	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
137	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
138	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
139	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
140	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
141	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
142	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
143	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
144	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
145	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
146	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
147	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
148	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
149	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
150	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58

Looking Ahead to 2012

I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

Month	Wins	Losses	WPct
April	13.46	13.54	0.4984
May	14.11	12.89	0.5225
June	13.62	13.38	0.5043
July	13.18	13.82	0.4880
August	13.08	13.92	0.4846
September	12.70	14.30	0.4703
Overall	80.14	81.86	0.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

Name	Wins	Losses	WPct
Kershaw	18.54	14.46	0.5620
Billingsley	15.79	17.22	0.4783
Lilly	15.50	16.50	0.4843
Capuano	15.46	16.54	0.4831
Harang	14.85	17.15	0.4641

Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.