Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/16

Rank	Dodgers	Dbacks	Occurences
1	3	4	34548
2	2	3	32749
3	4	5	28844
4	4	3	23591
5	3	2	22969
6	1	2	22722
7	5	6	21137
8	5	4	19385
9	4	2	18953
10	2	4	18284
11	5	3	17730
12	2	1	16186
13	3	5	16183
14	1	3	15772
15	3	1	15741
16	5	2	15517
17	2	5	14373
18	6	4	13782
19	4	1	13779
20	1	4	13737
21	6	5	13733
22	6	7	13547
23	6	3	13507
24	4	6	12176
25	3	6	11837
26	6	2	11355
27	1	5	11090
28	2	6	10871
29	5	1	10838
30	7	4	10098
31	0	1	9930
32	7	5	9397
33	7	3	9266
34	0	3	9143
35	0	2	8940
36	7	6	8934
37	3	7	8592
38	6	1	8396
39	7	2	8382
40	4	7	8372
41	7	8	8084
42	3	0	8072
43	1	6	7980
44	0	4	7957
45	2	0	7904
46	5	7	7843
47	2	7	7811
48	4	0	6796
49	1	0	6782
50	8	3	6668

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/16

Giants vs Dodgers - Ides of September Simulation Results

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/14

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/13

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	63299
2	2	3	52536
3	0	1	50326
4	2	1	41940
5	3	4	33962
6	3	2	33754
7	1	0	33173
8	0	2	32807
9	1	3	31662
10	3	1	27540
11	2	0	26626
12	0	3	26284
13	1	4	23742
14	2	4	22838
15	4	3	21664
16	3	0	20132
17	4	2	20101
18	0	4	19701
19	4	1	18379
20	4	5	18303
21	1	5	16011
22	2	5	15827
23	4	0	13916
24	0	5	13366
25	3	5	13000
26	5	2	12842
27	5	3	12185
28	5	1	12170
29	5	4	11487
30	1	6	10093
31	2	6	9637
32	0	6	9113
33	5	0	8828
34	5	6	8712
35	3	6	8378
36	6	2	7897
37	6	1	7513
38	6	3	7149
39	1	7	6512
40	6	4	6427
41	4	6	6241
42	6	0	6058
43	0	7	6011
44	2	7	5937
45	6	5	5528
46	3	7	4871
47	7	1	4848
48	7	2	4718
49	7	3	4394
50	1	8	4304

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/13

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/12

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	49062
2	1	2	44716
3	3	4	39692
4	3	2	29432
5	1	3	28923
6	2	1	26815
7	2	4	25889
8	4	5	25782
9	0	1	24716
10	1	4	24574
11	4	3	23729
12	0	2	21391
13	0	3	20853
14	3	1	19975
15	2	5	19550
16	4	2	19440
17	1	5	17824
18	3	5	17500
19	0	4	17450
20	5	4	15485
21	4	1	14909
22	5	6	14672
23	5	3	14606
24	1	0	14332
25	5	2	13627
26	2	0	13048
27	2	6	12720
28	3	6	12229
29	0	5	12228
30	1	6	11703
31	3	0	10989
32	5	1	10501
33	4	6	10238
34	6	3	9828
35	6	4	9562
36	6	2	9241
37	6	5	9083
38	0	6	8996
39	4	0	8304
40	2	7	8255
41	1	7	8207
42	6	7	7497
43	3	7	7418
44	6	1	7288
45	4	7	6553
46	7	2	6313
47	7	3	6274
48	0	7	6139
49	5	0	5961
50	7	4	5888

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/12

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/11

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences		Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	55635		51	7	4	4984
2	2	3	52368		52	4	7	4821
3	3	4	37529		53	1	8	4266
4	0	1	37486		54	2	8	4093
5	2	1	35655		55	7	5	4015
6	3	2	32721		56	8	2	3909
7	1	3	31762		57	7	0	3821
8	0	2	28109		58	8	1	3750
9	3	1	26601		59	5	7	3662
10	2	4	25030		60	8	3	3491
11	0	3	23687		61	3	8	3447
12	1	4	23535		62	7	6	3243
13	4	3	23120		63	0	8	3241
14	1	0	22876		64	8	4	2811
15	4	2	21895		65	4	8	2724
16	4	5	21886		66	8	0	2619
17	2	0	20214		67	1	9	2574
18	4	1	18170		68	2	9	2526
19	2	5	17119		69	9	2	2474
20	0	4	16635		70	8	5	2453
21	3	0	16274		71	9	1	2337
22	1	5	15680		72	7	8	2283
23	3	5	15518		73	9	3	2254
24	5	2	14408		74	3	9	2213
25	5	3	14196		75	5	8	2200
26	5	4	13428		76	0	9	2036
27	5	1	12547		77	8	6	1847
28	0	5	12279		78	9	4	1803
29	4	0	12035		79	9	0	1758
30	5	6	11259		80	6	8	1738
31	1	6	10453		81	4	9	1597
32	2	6	10256		82	10	1	1595
33	3	6	9730		83	10	2	1551
34	6	2	9279		84	1	10	1507
35	6	3	8862		85	2	10	1503
36	6	1	8360		86	8	7	1457
37	0	6	8194		87	9	5	1360
38	5	0	8120		88	10	3	1343
39	4	6	8115		89	3	10	1246
40	6	4	7890		90	5	9	1222
41	6	5	6796		91	0	10	1162
42	1	7	6749		92	10	4	1120
43	2	7	6689		93	9	6	1092
44	6	0	5888		94	10	0	1067
45	7	2	5824		95	4	10	1029
46	3	7	5646		96	8	9	957
47	7	1	5630		97	11	2	921
48	7	3	5379		98	6	9	907
49	6	7	5305		99	1	11	886
50	0	7	5187		100	2	11	876

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/11

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Score 9/10

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	4350
2	3	4	3684
3	1	2	3581
4	4	5	2765
5	3	2	2702
6	1	3	2424
7	4	3	2385
8	2	1	2336
9	2	4	2288
10	4	2	2012
11	3	1	1964
12	1	4	1959
13	0	1	1811
14	3	5	1756
15	5	4	1742
16	2	5	1712
17	5	6	1645
18	5	3	1596
19	0	3	1570
20	4	1	1562
21	5	2	1557
22	0	2	1426
23	1	5	1386
24	3	6	1265
25	0	4	1230
26	6	3	1196
27	2	0	1193
28	5	1	1167
29	2	6	1156
30	6	4	1152
31	1	0	1120
32	6	5	1112
33	3	0	1111
34	6	2	1092
35	4	6	1068
36	1	6	991
37	6	7	960
38	6	1	905
39	4	0	896
40	0	5	881
41	7	3	866
42	7	2	825
43	7	4	806
44	2	7	746
45	3	7	743
46	4	7	736
47	1	7	723
48	7	5	720
49	5	0	699
50	7	1	667

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/10

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurences
1	2	3	5084
2	1	2	4358
3	3	4	4154
4	1	3	3058
5	3	2	2987
6	2	4	2737
7	4	5	2728
8	2	1	2599
9	1	4	2499
10	4	3	2474
11	0	1	2222
12	0	3	2071
13	2	5	2029
14	0	2	2024
15	4	2	2008
16	3	1	1980
17	3	5	1873
18	1	5	1777
19	5	4	1600
20	0	4	1583
21	5	6	1569
22	5	3	1483
23	2	6	1422
24	4	1	1402
25	1	6	1342
26	5	2	1340
27	1	0	1323
28	3	6	1309
29	0	5	1266
30	2	0	1237
31	4	6	1120
32	3	0	1053
33	5	1	1039
34	6	3	968
35	6	4	945
36	0	6	935
37	2	7	924
38	1	7	896
39	6	5	888
40	6	2	859
41	3	7	828
42	4	0	785
43	6	7	738
44	4	7	692
45	6	1	664
46	0	7	644
47	7	3	631
48	7	4	628
49	7	2	596
50	2	8	568

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/9

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/8

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	1	2	50429
2	2	3	45914
3	2	1	42771
4	3	2	37248
5	0	1	34035
6	3	1	31524
7	3	4	31169
8	1	0	30495
9	2	0	28629
10	1	3	24673
11	4	2	24457
12	4	3	24072
13	3	0	23726
14	4	1	22922
15	0	2	22112
16	2	4	19466
17	4	0	18166
18	4	5	18160
19	5	2	16488
20	1	4	16403
21	5	1	16289
22	0	3	15586
23	5	3	15128
24	5	4	13681
25	5	0	13152
26	2	5	12335
27	3	5	12010
28	6	2	11443
29	6	1	11440
30	0	4	10126
31	1	5	10002
32	6	3	9961
33	6	0	9900
34	5	6	9501
35	6	4	8325
36	7	1	8075
37	7	2	7573
38	2	6	7452
39	3	6	7328
40	7	0	7240
41	6	5	7063
42	4	6	6632
43	0	5	6542
44	7	3	6520
45	1	6	6511
46	8	1	5668
47	7	4	5270
48	8	2	5210
49	8	0	5104
50	6	7	4785

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/8

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/7

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurrences
1	2	3	43981
2	1	2	43058
3	3	4	33078
4	3	2	32574
5	2	1	32468
6	1	3	27599
7	0	1	25420
8	4	3	24588
9	3	1	23114
10	2	4	22801
11	4	2	21417
12	0	2	20983
13	1	4	20684
14	4	5	20561
15	0	3	18918
16	1	0	18659
17	2	0	17097
18	4	1	16940
19	2	5	16169
20	5	3	15489
21	5	4	15307
22	3	5	14968
23	5	2	14666
24	1	5	14288
25	0	4	14222
26	3	0	13422
27	5	6	12122
28	5	1	11994
29	2	6	10736
30	3	6	10322
31	0	5	10301
32	6	3	10278
33	4	0	10124
34	1	6	9975
35	6	2	9808
36	6	4	9412
37	4	6	8768
38	6	5	8695
39	6	1	8258
40	0	6	7656
41	1	7	7545
42	2	7	7469
43	5	0	7329
44	3	7	6889
45	7	2	6697
46	7	3	6681
47	6	7	6484
48	4	7	6157
49	7	4	5984
50	7	1	5834

Pitching Matchup: Zack Greinke vs Mat Latos

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/7

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Reds	Occurences
1	2	3	37165
2	3	4	34584
3	3	2	30131
4	1	2	28824
5	4	3	26731
6	4	5	25742
7	2	1	23818
8	4	2	22326
9	3	1	20921
10	2	4	19729
11	5	4	19273
12	1	3	18956
13	5	3	18399
14	4	1	17044
15	5	2	17042
16	5	6	16586
17	3	5	16029
18	1	4	14546
19	2	5	14403
20	5	1	13296
21	6	3	13278
22	6	4	12698
23	6	2	12485
24	0	1	12433
25	6	5	12072
26	2	0	11849
27	3	0	11607
28	3	6	11255
29	4	6	11135
30	0	2	10731
31	1	0	10478
32	1	5	10213
33	6	1	10072
34	0	3	9949
35	6	7	9793
36	2	6	9745
37	4	0	9645
38	7	3	9154
39	7	2	9093
40	7	4	8752
41	5	0	7842
42	7	5	7767
43	7	1	7641
44	4	7	7623
45	0	4	7384
46	7	6	7357
47	3	7	7335
48	1	6	7325
49	2	7	6870
50	5	7	6768

Note: 1 Million simulations ran.

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/6

How Important Is Playoff Home Field Advantage For The Dodgers

A post from Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness titled 'Does The Best Record In The League Matter' got me thinking about a good way to measure this using math. Hey, opinions are great but if you know a little bit about me, you would know that I need to know the probabilities.

So what I did was assign a string of probabilities for the Dodgers winning the NLDS, NLCS and World Series. Now, I am going to assume in this exercise that the Dodgers are either the #1 or #2 seed in the National League. It is of course very possible that the Dodgers get the #3 seed, but let's save that scenario for a later date.

I kept the probabilities of the Dodgers winning the NLDS and World Series constant and then set a game by game win probability for each of the seven games the Dodgers and Braves would play each other in the NLCS. One set of probabilities for the Dodgers having HFA and one set for the Braves having HFA. The accuracy of the probabilities that I set aren't all that important. The important part is adjusting the NLCS games by 9% (assuming a HFA of 4.5% in this exercise) on a game by game basis. From these seven NLCS win probabilities I can then run this through a simple Monte Carlo simulation to get a NLCS series win probability.

The table below will show you my findings.

	LAN HFA	ATL HFA
NLDS	0.64	0.64
NLCS G1	0.65	0.56
NLCS G2	0.62	0.53
NLCS G3	0.47	0.56
NLCS G4	0.45	0.54
NLCS G5	0.56	0.65
NLCS G6	0.62	0.53
NLCS G7	0.56	0.47
NLCS Winner	0.635	0.607
W.S.	0.5	0.5
W.S. Champion	20.32%	19.43%

For the data above you can see that given the series and game win probabilities that I used, there is less than a one percent difference in chances of winning the World Series based on having the #1 or #2 seed in the MLB playoffs. I think the numbers I used are pretty accurate though, as Vegas has the Dodgers chances of winning the World Series at between 19-20 percent. Anyways, the final number doesn't really matter. What matters is the difference between the chances of winning the World Series with the #1 or #2 seed. Is a cost of 0.89% to your World Series champion probability a big deal or not? I would say no it isn't when you are balancing that out with properly getting your team ready for the post-season.

Note: NLCS Winner was computed with Monte Carlo simulation (10 Million simulations).

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/4

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	3	4	26029		51	8	5	6685
2	4	5	24929		52	1	8	6631
3	2	3	22290		53	0	3	6202
4	5	6	21096		54	5	9	6186
5	6	7	16201		55	0	4	6161
6	4	3	16107		56	8	4	6008
7	5	4	15617		57	3	10	5845
8	3	5	15375		58	2	10	5809
9	2	4	14934		59	1	9	5744
10	3	2	13536		60	6	9	5680
11	2	5	13498		61	7	2	5617
12	6	5	13258		62	5	1	5489
13	4	6	13215		63	4	10	5452
14	1	2	13132		64	0	5	5443
15	3	6	13104		65	8	3	5359
16	5	3	12426		66	0	2	5125
17	6	4	11614		67	0	6	5036
18	1	3	11484		68	7	9	5030
19	2	6	11370		69	5	10	4829
20	7	8	11224		70	9	6	4712
21	4	2	11190		71	3	11	4610
22	1	4	11102		72	9	8	4598
23	3	7	10635		73	1	10	4596
24	4	7	10583		74	9	10	4559
25	5	7	10340		75	9	5	4547
26	7	6	10221		76	9	7	4546
27	1	5	10134		77	2	11	4512
28	6	3	9952		78	8	2	4500
29	2	7	9716		79	0	1	4488
30	7	5	9281		80	0	7	4451
31	5	2	9177		81	6	1	4428
32	7	4	8833		82	9	4	4363
33	1	6	8827		83	4	11	4322
34	3	8	8769		84	6	10	4194
35	4	8	8419		85	9	3	4077
36	2	8	8140		86	0	8	3961
37	2	1	8101		87	7	10	3723
38	5	8	8092		88	5	11	3720
39	1	7	7659		89	7	1	3597
40	3	1	7503		90	1	11	3551
41	6	8	7492		91	3	12	3493
42	8	9	7443		92	9	2	3479
43	8	7	7289		93	2	12	3361
44	7	3	7251		94	4	12	3341
45	6	2	7191		95	10	5	3265
46	3	9	7136		96	0	9	3230
47	2	9	6937		97	10	4	3203
48	8	6	6823		98	8	10	3165
49	4	9	6730		99	10	6	3135
50	4	1	6708		100	10	7	3118

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/4

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/3

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	2	3	36251
2	3	4	33412
3	1	2	28272
4	3	2	26103
5	4	5	25437
6	4	3	24351
7	2	1	20811
8	4	2	19816
9	2	4	19773
10	1	3	19703
11	5	4	18593
12	3	1	17402
13	5	3	17370
14	5	6	16890
15	5	2	15893
16	1	4	15713
17	3	5	15171
18	4	1	14697
19	2	5	14436
20	0	1	13227
21	6	3	13162
22	6	4	12854
23	6	5	12293
24	6	2	12006
25	5	1	11833
26	0	2	11817
27	0	3	11616
28	1	5	11597
29	3	6	10737
30	4	6	10344
31	2	6	10278
32	2	0	9901
33	6	7	9851
34	7	3	9733
35	1	0	9522
36	0	4	9413
37	7	4	9351
38	3	0	9209
39	6	1	9027
40	7	2	9006
41	1	6	8321
42	7	5	8173
43	4	0	8084
44	7	6	7499
45	7	1	7085
46	3	7	7071
47	2	7	7068
48	4	7	6992
49	0	5	6918
50	8	3	6899

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/3

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/2

Rank	Dodgers	Rockies	Occurrences
1	2	3	32066
2	3	4	29458
3	3	2	28434
4	1	2	26169
5	4	3	24367
6	2	1	23642
7	4	2	23432
8	3	1	22532
9	4	5	21721
10	4	1	20776
11	5	2	19516
12	5	3	18610
13	5	1	17805
14	5	4	16949
15	6	2	15791
16	3	0	15773
17	4	0	15138
18	6	3	15005
19	6	1	14836
20	5	6	14340
21	2	0	14244
22	2	4	14197
23	1	3	13170
24	7	2	12918
25	5	0	12831
26	6	4	12816
27	7	1	12579
28	0	1	11753
29	7	3	11529
30	1	0	11487
31	6	0	11462
32	3	5	11180
33	6	5	11070
34	8	1	10146
35	8	2	10046
36	7	4	9791
37	7	0	9657
38	1	4	9322
39	2	5	9211
40	8	3	8768
41	6	7	8658
42	0	2	8379
43	8	0	7869
44	9	2	7774
45	9	1	7693
46	7	5	7624
47	4	6	7511
48	8	4	7105
49	3	6	6839
50	9	3	6586

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/2

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/1

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	70182
2	2	3	60577
3	0	1	48994
4	2	1	40227
5	3	4	38878
6	1	3	36949
7	0	2	34253
8	3	2	33789
9	1	0	28401
10	0	3	27852
11	1	4	26922
12	2	4	26373
13	3	1	25418
14	2	0	22441
15	4	3	21318
16	4	5	20652
17	0	4	20307
18	4	2	18573
19	3	0	17981
20	2	5	17879
21	1	5	17845
22	4	1	16626
23	3	5	14803
24	0	5	14334
25	4	0	11995
26	1	6	11834
27	5	4	11124
28	5	3	10895
29	2	6	10791
30	5	2	10559
31	0	6	10075
32	5	1	9809
33	5	6	9426
34	3	6	9066
35	1	7	7848
36	4	6	7122
37	2	7	6884
38	5	0	6853
39	0	7	6567
40	6	2	6105
41	6	3	5701
42	6	1	5649
43	6	4	5399
44	3	7	5310
45	6	5	5194
46	1	8	4885
47	6	0	4456
48	2	8	4425
49	0	8	4236
50	4	7	4141

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/1

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	55788
2	1	2	51212
3	3	4	44778
4	3	2	32576
5	1	3	30687
6	2	1	29992
7	4	5	28260
8	0	1	27658
9	2	4	27346
10	4	3	24843
11	1	4	23507
12	0	2	22468
13	3	1	21829
14	4	2	20038
15	0	3	19545
16	2	5	19090
17	3	5	18663
18	4	1	16462
19	1	5	15952
20	5	6	15729
21	1	0	15558
22	5	4	15481
23	0	4	15181
24	2	0	14327
25	5	3	14262
26	3	0	13407
27	5	2	12944
28	2	6	12185
29	3	6	11785
30	0	5	11092
31	1	6	11041
32	5	1	11034
33	4	6	10413
34	4	0	10100
35	6	2	8484
36	6	4	8458
37	6	5	8440
38	6	3	8335
39	2	7	8203
40	0	6	7738
41	1	7	7515
42	6	7	7439
43	3	7	7258
44	6	1	6969
45	5	0	6434
46	4	7	6407
47	2	8	5503
48	7	2	5281
49	0	7	5274
50	7	3	5209

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Cashner vs Chris Capuano

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/31

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/30

Rank	Padres	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	61605
2	2	3	58593
3	3	4	42281
4	0	1	39083
5	1	3	35723
6	2	1	32364
7	0	2	31376
8	3	2	31309
9	2	4	27827
10	1	4	27289
11	0	3	27192
12	4	5	24845
13	4	3	21571
14	3	1	21226
15	0	4	20705
16	1	0	19541
17	2	5	19382
18	1	5	18799
19	4	2	17739
20	3	5	17020
21	2	0	15908
22	0	5	15362
23	4	1	14752
24	3	0	13197
25	1	6	13139
26	5	4	12646
27	2	6	12384
28	5	6	12182
29	5	3	11590
30	0	6	10731
31	5	2	10656
32	3	6	10651
33	5	1	9332
34	4	0	9317
35	1	7	8857
36	4	6	8739
37	2	7	8133
38	0	7	7530
39	6	2	6731
40	6	4	6449
41	6	5	6417
42	3	7	6391
43	6	3	6376
44	1	8	6005
45	6	7	5738
46	5	0	5644
47	2	8	5548
48	6	1	5449
49	4	7	5044
50	0	8	4914

Pitching Matchup: Eric Stults vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/30

Notes:
- One million games simulated.
- Dodgers Vegas win expectancy 66.1%

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/28

Note: 1 million games simulated

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/28

Wednesday's Cubs vs Dodgers game.  One million simulations.

Rank	Cubs	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	56539
2	2	3	55541
3	3	4	41603
4	0	1	34203
5	2	1	32005
6	1	3	31654
7	3	2	31280
8	0	2	26421
9	2	4	26195
10	4	5	24959
11	1	4	24953
12	3	1	23305
13	0	3	22595
14	4	3	22257
15	4	2	19691
16	1	0	19287
17	2	5	18837
18	1	5	17410
19	0	4	17301
20	2	0	17074
21	4	1	16868
22	3	5	16785
23	3	0	14677
24	0	5	13428
25	5	6	13044
26	5	3	12939
27	5	4	12893
28	2	6	12834
29	5	2	12647
30	1	6	12600
31	3	6	11250
32	4	0	11154
33	5	1	10625
34	0	6	9507
35	4	6	9086
36	1	7	8837
37	2	7	8775
38	6	2	7530
39	6	3	7427
40	3	7	7287
41	6	4	7017
42	6	5	6802
43	0	7	6604
44	5	0	6557
45	6	1	6312
46	6	7	6109
47	2	8	5955
48	4	7	5897
49	1	8	5857
50	3	8	4639

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Scores 8/27

Using my simulator to simulate one million games, here is the list of the top fifty most likely final scores.

Rank	Cubs	Dodgers	Occurences
1	1	2	64648
2	2	3	54206
3	0	1	50572
4	0	2	41272
5	1	3	39449
6	0	3	39204
7	3	4	34173
8	1	4	33034
9	0	4	32654
10	2	1	28816
11	2	4	26698
12	0	5	26359
13	1	5	24819
14	3	2	24157
15	1	0	21366
16	2	5	20924
17	0	6	19742
18	1	6	18720
19	4	5	18410
20	3	1	16837
21	4	3	15119
22	3	5	14981
23	2	0	14597
24	2	6	14546
25	0	7	13941
26	1	7	13610
27	4	2	12686
28	2	7	10572
29	3	6	10559
30	4	1	9799
31	3	0	9611
32	0	8	9588
33	1	8	9262
34	5	6	8678
35	5	4	8100
36	5	3	7527
37	2	8	7201
38	4	6	6998
39	3	7	6994
40	5	2	6980
41	0	9	6358
42	1	9	6229
43	4	0	5988
44	5	1	5445
45	2	9	4832
46	4	7	4831
47	3	8	4693
48	0	10	4056
49	6	3	3981
50	1	10	3919

Note: One million games simulated.

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/27

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/26

Notes:
- One Million games simulated
- Vegas win expectancy is 70.1%

Red Sox vs Dodgers - Weekend Series Simulation Results

Series Results...

Day	Away	Home	Away Starter	Home Starter	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win Probability	Total RS
Friday	Red Sox	Dodgers	John Lackey	Ricky Nolasco	Dodgers	3.648	3.777	54.130	7.425
Saturday	Red Sox	Dodgers	Jon Lester	Hyun-Jin Ryu	Dodgers	3.210	3.859	59.861	7.069
Sunday	Red Sox	Dodgers	Jake Peavy	Chris Capuano	Dodgers	3.516	3.818	56.365	7.334

Simulation Boxscore for Friday's game

Note: One million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/22

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/21

Dodgers vs Marlins - Simulation Results 8/20

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/18

Note: Vegas gives the Dodgers a 51.8% chance of winning this game.

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/17

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/16

Note: 1 Million games simulated
Vegas Odds: Dodgers win expectancy 52.0%

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/14

Mets vs Dodgers - Most Likely Final Scores

Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Mets	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Mets	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	1	2	74616		26	5	0	11636
2	0	1	64231		27	5	3	11074
3	2	3	57117		28	0	5	11031
4	2	1	46377		29	3	5	10966
5	1	0	41118		30	5	4	9651
6	0	2	36331		31	6	1	8315
7	3	2	34618		32	1	6	8242
8	3	4	33740		33	6	2	7873
9	2	0	33030		34	2	6	7671
10	3	1	31089		35	6	0	7591
11	1	3	30919		36	5	6	7535
12	0	3	25181		37	0	6	7229
13	3	0	24867		38	3	6	6676
14	1	4	21508		39	6	3	6558
15	2	4	21065		40	7	1	5341
16	4	2	20424		41	6	4	5199
17	4	1	19970		42	4	6	5064
18	4	3	19429		43	1	7	5027
19	4	5	17299		44	7	0	4966
20	4	0	16745		45	7	2	4724
21	0	4	16575		46	2	7	4590
22	2	5	13614		47	6	5	4367
23	1	5	13138		48	0	7	4316
24	5	1	13033		49	7	3	3946
25	5	2	12846		50	3	7	3763

Pitching Matchup: Matt Harvey vs Hyun-Jin Ryu
Games Simulated: 1 Million

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/13

Mets vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/12

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/11

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/10

Rays vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/9

Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation Results 8/8

Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation Results 8/7

Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation Results 8/6

The Dodgers Amazing Road To Riches

On August 5th the Dodgers won their 15th consecutive road game, a streak that dates back to July 7th when the Dodgers won in San Francisco by the score of 4-1. Let's say you had a $100 bill burning a hole in your pocket back on July 7th and had bet that $100 on the Dodgers to win that game, then decided to let your winnings ride for every Dodgers road game. Well, if you had done so, you would be sitting on a tidy little pile of winnings. In fact, you would have just under three million dollars sitting in your account. $2,925,662.12 to be exact. If you had made this sequence of bets would you let it ride on Clayton Kershaw and win number 16 in a row? A winning bet would put your winnings at $4.9M.

Game #	Date	Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	Fave Odds	Dog Odds	Score	Bet Amount	Payoff	Bet Winnings
1	7/7/2013	LAN	SF	Kershaw	Gaudin	LAN	-169	162	4-1	100.00	0.592	59.17
2	7/8/2013	LAN	ARI	Greinke	Delgado	ARI	-103	-102	6-1	159.17	0.980	156.05
3	7/9/2013	LAN	ARI	Nolasco	Kennedy	ARI	-107	102	6-1	315.22	1.020	321.53
4	7/10/2013	LAN	ARI	Ryu	Skaggs	ARI	-104	-101	7-5	636.75	0.990	630.44
5	7/19/2013	LAN	WAS	Nolasco	Strasburg	WAS	-158	153	3-2	1267.19	1.530	1938.81
6	7/20/2013	LAN	WAS	Greinke	Gonzalez	WAS	-125	120	3-1	3206.00	1.200	3847.20
7	7/21/2013	LAN	WAS	Kershaw	Zimmermann	LAN	-110	105	9-2	7053.20	0.909	6412.00
8	7/22/2013	LAN	TOR	Ryu	Johnson	TOR	-108	103	14-5	13465.19	1.030	13869.15
9	7/23/2013	LAN	TOR	Capuano	Redmond	TOR	-103	-102	10-9	27334.35	0.980	26798.38
10	7/24/2013	LAN	TOR	Nolasco	Rogers	TOR	-107	102	8-3	54132.72	1.020	55215.38
11	8/1/2013	LAN	CHN	Nolasco	Rusin	LAN	-145	135	6-4	109348.10	0.690	75412.48
12	8/2/2013	LAN	CHN	Ryu	Wood	LAN	-135	125	6-2	184760.58	0.741	136859.69
13	8/3/2013	LAN	CHN	Capuano	Samardzija	CHN	-106	-104	3-0	321620.27	0.962	309250.26
14	8/4/2013	LAN	CHN	Fife	Villanueva	LAN	-112	102	1-0	630870.54	0.893	563277.27
15	8/5/2013	LAN	STL	Greinke	Wainwright	STL	-150	145	3-2	1194147.81	1.450	1731514.32
Total										2925662.12

Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation Results 8/5

TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Cardinals	Occurrences
1	1	2	49333		26	1	6	13256
2	2	3	48668		27	2	6	12369
3	3	4	35931		28	3	0	12307
4	2	1	34204		29	5	6	12292
5	3	2	32016		30	5	2	11932
6	0	1	30782		31	0	6	10877
7	1	3	30710		32	3	6	10267
8	0	2	25196		33	5	1	9674
9	2	4	24710		34	1	7	9552
10	1	4	23598		35	2	7	8869
11	4	3	23422		36	4	0	8831
12	0	3	22981		37	4	6	8796
13	3	1	22731		38	6	4	8099
14	4	5	22269		39	6	3	8085
15	1	0	21856		40	6	5	7839
16	4	2	19962		41	0	7	7783
17	0	4	19330		42	6	2	7629
18	1	5	18491		43	3	7	7200
19	2	0	18053		44	6	1	6503
20	2	5	17315		45	1	8	6489
21	3	5	15851		46	6	7	6290
22	0	5	14637		47	2	8	6284
23	4	1	14427		48	5	0	6252
24	5	4	14230		49	4	7	5579
25	5	3	13556		50	0	8	5561

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/4

TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences
1	2	3	35141		26	4	6	11841
2	3	4	33108		27	1	5	11562
3	1	2	27525		28	3	6	11392
4	3	2	27451		29	0	2	11094
5	4	3	25864		30	2	0	10744
6	4	5	25782		31	2	6	10708
7	4	2	21824		32	6	7	10646
8	2	1	21567		33	0	3	10641
9	5	4	19984		34	6	1	10524
10	2	4	19911		35	3	0	10387
11	5	3	18838		36	7	3	10025
12	3	1	18809		37	7	4	9831
13	1	3	18690		38	1	0	9764
14	5	6	17545		39	7	2	9594
15	5	2	17513		40	4	0	9012
16	3	5	16585		41	7	5	8738
17	4	1	16235		42	0	4	8696
18	1	4	15133		43	1	6	8621
19	2	5	15050		44	7	6	8118
20	6	3	14177		45	7	1	7920
21	6	4	13681		46	3	7	7781
22	6	5	13055		47	5	0	7592
23	5	1	13023		48	2	7	7579
24	6	2	12803		49	4	7	7360
25	0	1	12417		50	5	7	7202

Note: One million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/3

TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Cubs	Occurrences
1	2	3	39889		26	3	0	13320
2	1	2	33799		27	0	3	13102
3	3	4	33152		28	1	5	12921
4	3	2	31913		29	6	4	12635
5	2	1	28309		30	6	2	12389
6	4	3	26850		31	6	5	11546
7	4	5	23260		32	6	1	10742
8	4	2	23114		33	0	4	10733
9	3	1	22406		34	4	0	10672
10	1	3	21746		35	3	6	10602
11	2	4	21239		36	2	6	10584
12	5	4	18840		37	4	6	9934
13	5	3	18506		38	7	3	9153
14	4	1	18323		39	7	2	9089
15	5	2	17832		40	1	6	9029
16	1	4	17486		41	5	0	8794
17	0	1	16582		42	7	4	8450
18	3	5	15691		43	0	5	8165
19	2	5	15211		44	6	7	8099
20	2	0	14844		45	7	1	7705
21	5	6	14568		46	7	5	7422
22	1	0	14532		47	2	7	7167
23	0	2	14325		48	3	7	6989
24	5	1	13965		49	6	0	6739
25	6	3	13445		50	7	6	6670

Note: One million games simulated.

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/2