June 1st Simulations

Third Place With A Bullet ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs J.Garland	Rockies	52.72%	57.69%	COL 3-0
Pirates	Mets	K.Correia vs C.Capuano	Mets	TBD	56.10%	PIT 9-3
Rangers	Rays	C.Lewis vs D.Price	Rays	TBD	59.33%	TEX 3-0
Phillies	Nationals	R.Oswalt vs J.Lannan	Phillies	TBD	56.28%	WAS 2-1
Angels	Royals	T.Chatwood vs F.Paulino	Angels	TBD	50.84%	KC 2-0
Twins	Tigers	S.Baker vs R.Porcello	Tigers	TBD	59.68%	DET 4-2
Astros	Cubs	B.Myers vs D.Davis	Cubs	TBD	59.34%	HOU 3-1
Brewers	Reds	S.Marcum vs M.Leake	Reds	TBD	57.53%	CIN 4-3
Indians	Blue Jays	J.Tomlin vs K.Drabek	Blue Jays	TBD	51.37%	CLE 13-9
Yankees	Athletics	A.Burnett vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	TBD	54.10%	NYA 4-2
Padres	Braves	C.Richard vs T.Hanson	Braves	TBD	64.22%	ATL 4-3
White Sox	Red Sox	G.Floyd vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	TBD	57.71%	CHA 7-4
Giants	Cardinals	T.Lincecum vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	TBD	52.67%	SF 7-5
Orioles	Mariners	B.Matusz vs M.Pineda	Mariners	TBD	59.03%	BAL 2-1
Marlins	DBacks	J.Vazquez vs D.Hudson	DBacks	TBD	68.46%	ARI 6-5

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CHA vs BOS, Under 9.5 +110, 4.5 units LOSS
NYA vs OAK, Under 7.5 -118, 2.2 units WIN
TEX vs TB, Under 7.5 -125, 1.8 units WIN
MIN vs DET, Under 8.5 -105, 1.3 units WIN
COL vs LAN, Over 7.0 +100, 1.8 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -1.1 units

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May 27th Simulations

Return Of The Walking Wounded ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Marlins	Dodgers	J.Vazquez vs J.Garland	Dodgers	52.49%	57.78%	LAN 3-2
Indians	Rays	J.Tomlin vs D.Price	Rays	60.86%	63.28%	TB 5-0
Orioles	Athletics	C.Tillman vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	61.31%	61.16%	OAK 6-2
Padres	Nationals	C.Richard vs J.Lannan	Nationals	54.65%	52.71%	WAS 2-1
Angels	Twins	T.Chatwood vs S.Baker	Twins	55.06%	53.14%	LAA 6-5
Phillies	Mets	R.Oswalt vs C.Capuano	Phillies	55.65%	58.31%	PHI 6-3
Giants	Brewers	T.Lincecum vs S.Marcum	Brewers	51.57%	47.92%	SF 5-4
Red Sox	Tigers	T.Wakefield vs R.Porcello	Tigers	52.27%	51.11%	BOS 6-3
Royals	Rangers	N.Adcock vs C.Lewis	Rangers	66.10%	66.24%	KC 12-7
Pirates	Cubs	K.Correia vs D.Davis	Cubs	50.62%	57.62%	PIT 4-2
Cardinals	Rockies	J.Westbrook vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	59.76%	58.53%	STL 10-3
Reds	Braves	M.Leake vs T.Hanson	Braves	60.71%	56.86%	CIN 5-1
DBacks	Astros	D.Hudson vs B.Myers	DBacks	52.72%	57.19%	ARI 7-6
Yankees	Mariners	A.Burnett vs M.Pineda	Mariners	52.27%	55.39%	SEA 4-3
White Sox	Blue Jays	M.Buehrle vs K.Drabek	Blue Jays	56.24%	46.69%	TOR 4-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
BAL vs OAK, Under 7 -110, bet 0.6 units. LOSS
PHI vs NYN, Under 7 +110, bet 1.7 units. LOSS
KC vs TEX, Over 9 -120, bet 3.4 units. WIN
CIN vs ATL, Under 7.5 -110, bet 2.0 units. WIN
CHA vs TOR, Under 8.5 -110, bet 2.1 units. WIN
Daily Profit: 4.2 units

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May 21st Simulations

Beating Up The American League ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	White Sox	J.Garland vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	59.51%	65.56%	CHA 9-2
Rockies	Brewers	C.Mortensen vs S.Marcum	Brewers	TBD	55.83%	MIL 3-2
Astros	Blue Jays	B.Myers vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	TBD	63.11%	TOR 7-5
Braves	Angels	T.Hanson vs J.Pineiro	Braves	TBD	53.72%	ATL 5-4
Mets	Yankees	C.Capuano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	TBD	61.69%	NYA 7-3
Cardinals	Royals	J.Westbrook vs N.Adcock	Cardinals	TBD	62.21%	STL 3-0
Twins	DBacks	S.Baker vs M.Owings	DBacks	TBD	55.17%	ARI 9-6
Cubs	Red Sox	C.Zambrano vs A.Aceves	Red Sox	TBD	56.40%	Cubs
Mariners	Padres	M.Pineda vs C.Richard	Mariners	TBD	50.32%	SEA 4-0
Tigers	Pirates	M.Scherzer vs K.Correia	Pirates	TBD	50.94%	PIT 6-2
Rays	Marlins	D.Price vs J.Vazquez	Rays	TBD	57.73%	FLA 5-3
Nationals	Orioles	J.Lannan vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	TBD	54.85%	BAL 8-3
Rangers	Phillies	C.Lewis vs C.Lee	Phillies	TBD	63.19%	PHI 2-0
Reds	Indians	H.Bailey vs J.Tomlin	Reds	TBD	57.34%	CLE 2-1
Athletics	Giants	B.Anderson vs T.Lincecum	Giants	TBD	53.51%	SF 3-0

Run Total Picks of The Day!
Astros vs Blue Jays, Under 7.5 -120, bet 0.6 units. LOSS
Dodgers vs White Sox, Over 8.0 -120, bet 0.8 units. WIN
Nationals vs Orioles, Over 8.5 +100, bet 0.5 units. WIN
Rangers vs Phillies, Under 7.0 +100, bet 0.5 units. WIN
Twins vs Diamondbacks, Under 9.5 -115, bet 1 unit. LOSS


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May 16th Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Brew Up A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Brewers	Dodgers	S.Marcum vs J.Garland	Brewers	52.72%	53.99%	MIL 2-1
Twins	Mariners	S.Baker vs M.Pineda	Mariners	60.24%	56.46%	SEA 5-2
Orioles	Red Sox	C.Tillman vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	63.30%	57.77%	BOS 8-7
Phillies	Cardinals	C.Lee vs J.Westbrook	Phillies	55.85%	52.21%	STL 3-1
Marlins	Mets	J.Johnson vs M.Pelfrey	Marlins	59.43%	57.20%	FLA 2-1
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs C.Mortensen	Giants	58.07%	56.58%	COL 7-4
Blue Jays	Tigers	K.Drabek vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	58.59%	62.95%	TOR 4-2
Pirates	Nationals	P.Maholm vs J.Lannan	Nationals	52.49%	51.95%	WAS 4-2
Cubs	Reds	C.Zambrano vs H.Bailey	Reds	57.72%	58.95%	Reds 7-4
Padres	DBacks	C.Richard vs A.Galarraga	DBacks	52.27%	47.52%	SD 8-4
Indians	Royals	J.Tomlin vs K.Davies	Indians	54.02%	47.18%	CLE 19-1
Yankees	Rays	A.Burnett vs D.Price	Rays	56.80%	56.12%	TB 6-5
Rangers	White Sox	C.Lewis vs E.Jackson	White Sox	53.81%	52.73%	TEX 4-0
Astros	Braves	B.Myers vs T.Hanson	Braves	69.23%	67.24%	ATL 3-2
Angels	Athletics	J.Pineiro vs B.Anderson	Athletics	56.43%	67.62%	OAK 5-4

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May 12th Simulations

Pi Rates Squared ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Pirates	J.Garland vs C.Morton	Pirates	54.65%	58.24%	TBD
Mets	Rockies	J.Niese vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	63.17%	59.23%	TBD
DBacks	Giants	D.Hudson vs M.Cain	Giants	56.99%	53.57%	TBD
Nationals	Braves	J.Zimmerman vs D.Lowe	Braves	63.70%	60.94%	TBD
Royals	Yankees	S.O'Sullivan vs I.Nova	Yankees	64.85%	72.30%	TBD
Mariners	Orioles	J.Vargas vs Z.Britton	Orioles	59.43%	59.24%	TBD
Cardinals	Cubs	J.Garcia vs C.Coleman	Cardinals	57.72%	64.52%	TBD
Rays	Indians	J.Shields vs J.Masterson	Indians	52.27%	56.41%	TBD

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.74%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +8.38%

Pitching Machines

May 7th Simulations

Dodgers 3 Under For The Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Mets	J.Garland vs C.Young	Mets	55.46%	59.39%	NYN 4-2
OAK	KC	Brandon McCarthy vs Luke Hochevar	OAK	TBD	61.77	KC 4-3
DET	TOR	Justin Verlander vs Ricky Romero	TOR	TBD	52.333	DET 9-0
CLE	LAA	Alex White vs Jered Weaver	LAA	TBD	68.056	CLE 4-3
TB	BAL	Jeremy Hellickson vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	61.241	TB 8-2
MIN	BOS	Brian Duensing vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	TBD	56.885	BOS 4-0
NYA	TEX	Bartolo Colon vs Derek Holland	NYA	TBD	50.253	TEX 7-5
COL	SF	Clay Mortensen vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	61.051	SF 3-2
CHA	SEA	Gavin Floyd vs Doug Fister	SEA	TBD	58.182	CHA 6-0
CIN	CHN	Bronson Arroyo vs Casey Coleman	CIN	TBD	51.916	CHN 3-2
ATL	PHI	Julio Teheren vs Kyle Kendrick	PHI	TBD	55.991	PHI 3-0
WAS	FLA	Tom Gorzelanny vs Chris Volstad	WAS	TBD	50.334	WAS 5-2
HOU	PIT	Bud Norris vs Charlie Morton	HOU	TBD	50.042	PIT 6-1
ARI	SD	Daniel Hudson vs Dustin Moseley	ARI	TBD	53.524	ARI 6-0
MIL	STL	Yovanni Gallardo vs Kyle Lohse	STL	TBD	63.783	MIL 4-0

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -1.93%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.48%

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May 1st Simulations

Joltin' Andre ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	D.Moseley vs J.Garland	Dodgers	55.65%	47.86%	LAN 7-0
Pirates	Rockies	C.Morton vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	65.10%	69.52%	PIT 8-4
Cardinals	Braves	J.Garcia vs D.Lowe	Braves	51.81%	42.95%	ATL 6-5
Tigers	Indians	P.Coke vs J.Masterson	Indians	56.71%	57.19%	CLE 5-4
Mariners	Red Sox	F.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield	Mariners	51.81%	48.51%	BOS 3-2
Rangers	Athletics	M.Harrison vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	53.16%	57.32%	OAK 7-2
Mets	Phillies	C.Young vs C.Lee	Phillies	62.48%	69.06%	TBD
Blue Jays	Yankees	J.Litsch vs I.Nova	Yankees	57.17%	69.22%	NYA 5-2
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs L.Hochevar	Royals	50.62%	46.63%	KC 10-3
Brewers	Astros	C.Narveson vs B.Norris	Brewers	53.16%	48.22%	HOU 5-0
Giants	Nationals	M.Cain vs J.Zimmerman	Giants	53.60%	50.31%	WAS 5-2
Marlins	Reds	R.Nolasco vs B.Arroyo	Reds	51.34%	57.24%	FLA 9-5
Cubs	DBacks	C.Coleman vs D.Hudson	DBacks	61.01%	62.94%	ARI 4-3
Orioles	White Sox	Z.Britton vs G.Floyd	White Sox	53.38%	50.46%	BAL 6-4
Angels	Rays	T.Chatwood vs A.Cobb	Rays	57.45%	53.95%	LAA 6-5

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 25th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Reel In For Real Marlins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Garland vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	57.63%	61.42%	FLA 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	P.Humber vs I.Nova	Yankees	65.03%	67.87%	CHA 2-0
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs D.Moseley	Braves	55.16%	50.82%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	K.Drabek vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.02%	58.42%	TOR 6-4
Athletics	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.35%	57.45%	LAA 5-0
Reds	Brewers	B.Arroyo vs C.Narveson	Brewers	54.55%	51.14%	CIN 9-5
Phillies	DBacks	C.Lee vs I.Kennedy	Phillies	59.68%	58.31%	ARI 4-0
Rockies	Cubs	E.Rogers vs M.Garza	Cubs	55.56%	57.37%	COL 5-3
Nationals	Pirates	J.Lannan vs P.Maholm	Pirates	53.70%	54.02%	PIT 4-2

Below are the results from the simulation of Monday's Dodgers/Marlins game. Keep in mind it is nearly impossible to correctly project out the exact lineups this far out in advance, but they should hopefully be pretty close.

Dodgers Hitting Results
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Jamey Carroll	4.4	1.25	0.826	0.301	0.046	0.076	0.289	0.261	0.896	0.327	0.342
Casey Blake	4.28	1.169	0.695	0.314	0.02	0.139	0.418	0.248	1.054	0.331	0.334
Andre Ethier	4.157	1.221	0.715	0.313	0.012	0.181	0.527	0.365	0.94	0.368	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.19	0.743	0.246	0.018	0.183	0.586	0.282	1.078	0.357	0.356
Juan Uribe	4.063	1.062	0.62	0.28	0.026	0.135	0.514	0.217	0.885	0.319	0.305
James Loney	3.924	1.13	0.691	0.304	0.016	0.119	0.473	0.287	0.727	0.347	0.329
Jerry Sands	3.832	0.985	0.662	0.19	0.007	0.127	0.439	0.218	0.973	0.308	0.314
Rod Barajas	3.653	0.815	0.514	0.184	0.006	0.11	0.364	0.299	1.059	0.286	0.284
Pitchers Spot	3.72	0.46	0.366	0.077	0.003	0.014	0.13	0.118	1.842	0.141	0.239

Dodgers Pitching Results
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jon Garland	5.65	3.943	2.173	6.807	0.647	93.501	4.447
Johnathan Broxton	0.393	0.468	0.154	0.358	0.035	6.467	3.156
Matt Guerrier	0.434	0.325	0.122	0.489	0.036	6.878	3.635
Mike MacDougal	0.714	0.544	0.314	0.798	0.063	11.885	4.146
Blake Hawksworth	0.402	0.298	0.183	0.48	0.057	6.811	4.925
Vicente Padilla	0.691	0.606	0.248	0.783	0.084	11.388	4.107
Kenley Jansen	0.334	0.403	0.161	0.324	0.04	5.717	3.803
Lance Cormier	0.018	0.011	0.01	0.022	0.002	0.314	5.1

Seasonal ROI: -0.01%

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April 20th Simulations

Battle Of The Innings Eaters ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	Derek Lowe vs Jon Garland	Braves	57.26%	56.57%	LAN 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Chris Narveson vs Cliff Lee	Phillies	66.67%	66.71%	PHI 4-3
Nationals	Cardinals	Jordan Zimmerman vs Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	62.26%	66.48%	STL 5-3
Red Sox	Athletics	Clay Buchholz vs Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	52.38%	60.38%	BOS 5-3
Astros	Mets	Bud Norris vs R.A. Dickey	Mets	59.18%	62.14%	HOU 4-3
Pirates	Marlins	Charlie Morton vs Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	60.78%	59.11%	FLA 6-0
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs Matt Garza	Cubs	57.81%	61.95%	CHN 2-1
Yankees	Blue Jays	Bartolo Colon vs Brett Cecil	Yankees	53.49%	56.40%	NYA 6-2
Giants	Rockies	Matt Cain vs Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	54.55%	55.55%	COL 10-2
Indians	Royals	Justin Masterson vs Luke Hochevar	Indians	52.38%	55.42%	CLE 7-5
White Sox	Rays	Phil Humber vs Wade Davis	Rays	55.56%	55.15%	TB 4-1
Angels	Rangers	Jered Weaver vs Matt Harrison	Rangers	51.22%	52.60%	LAA 4-1
Diamondbacks	Reds	Ian Kennedy vs Bronson Arroyo	Reds	60.00%	60.78%	ARI 3-1
Twins	Orioles	Nick Blackburn vs Zach Britton	Orioles	57.45%	62.33%	BAL 5-4
Tigers	Mariners	Rick Porcello vs Erik Bedard	Tigers	50.00%	50.38%	DET 3-2
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.35%	54.81%	WAS 8-6
Padres	Cubs	Aaron Harang vs James Russell	Padres	52.61%	49.45%	SD 5-4

Seasonal ROI: 0.68%

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