Monday, October 14, 2013

Updates NLCS Individual Game Odds

Here is an updated list of the individual game odds for the remaining games of the NLCS. As a reminder, the way the game odds are calculated is take the Vegas odds of the Cardinals winning the NLCS, which the last time I looked was (-350, +290) 76.19% chance of winning. We can give the Dodgers a 0% chance of winning for the games they already lost and we can input a win probability of 47.4% for Game #3 as those odds have already been published. Now to figure out the odds of the remaining games (Games 4-7) we need to adjust them until the string of games gives us a 23.81% chance of the Dodgers winning the series. To do this, I used the nifty excel spreadsheet that one of my readers gave me in the comments of the previous post on this topic. While these won't be the likely odds for Games four thru seven they are good "ballpark" estimates. And if you don't agree with any of these game odds, that is fine... but you will need to adjust the odds of some of the other games to even out any changes you made one way or the other.

GameAway StarterHome StarterDodgers Odds
1Zack GreinkeJoe Kelly0.0%
2Clayton KershawMichael Wacha0.0%
3Adam WainwrightHyun-Jin Ryu47.4%
4Shelby MillerRicky Nolasco59.0%
5Joe KellyZack Greinke65.0%
6Clayton KershawMichael Wacha57.0%
7Hyun-Jin RyuAdam Wainwright42.0%


Anonymous said...

FYI - I changed the link to View Only now. If you still need to download it, let mek now.

Xeifrank said...

I downloaded and made my own copy. Thanks a ton!!!