Vegas has some out and made the Dodgers a 55.6% favorite to win the NLCS over the St.Louis Cardinals. So what I've done is gone ahead and assigned individual game win probabilities to each game not necessarily based off of what my sim outputted, but more along the lines of fudging the odds of all seven games in attempt to make the 55.6% come out as the true chances of winning the series for the Dodgers. Below is what I came up with.
|Game||Away Starter||Home Starter||Dodgers Win%|
I took this set of game win probabilities and put it in a C program that played a 7 game series one million times, using a random number generator to determine game winners and losers and the odds of the Dodgers winning the series came out to approximately 55.6% of the time. You can argue that the odds for an individual game are a little off, but where you lean one game matchup for one team, you need to lean another matchup for the other team. It doesn't matter if I swap Greinke and Kershaw (Games 1/2, 5/6) in the games they pitch in, the odds still come out the same. Where it might matter is having Kershaw available to pitch out of the pen in Game #7. Either way, the Dodgers surely do not want this series to go to a seventh game.