Friday, October 25, 2013

World Series Individual Game Odds Reverse Engineered

Here are the odds of each remaining World Series game based on the knowledge of the Vegas odds that each team wins the World Series and the Vegas odds for games 1,2 and 3.  The odds for games 1,2 and 3 give us a good approximation for the odds in games 5,6 and 7 and we can move the game four odds around in such a way that the chances for each team winning the series match the Vegas odds.

Here is a look at the table with the individual game odds.

Game #Red SoxCardinals
Game 1100.0%0.0%
Game 20.0%100.0%
Game 350.6%49.4%
Game 449.3%50.7%
Game 545.9%54.1%
Game 652.0%48.0%
Game 758.6%41.4%

And here is a table with the chances of the series ending with one team winning in X number of games.

ResultChance %Odds
Red Sox in 40.0%NA
Red Sox in 511.5%7.73
Red Sox in 619.0%4.28
Red Sox in 722.0%3.55
Cardinals in 40.0%NA
Cardinals in 513.5%6.38
Cardinals in 618.5%4.40
Cardinals in 715.5%5.43

- HFA of 4% is assumed
- Data was computed with spreadsheet provided by one of my readers.

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