Sunday, July 31, 2011

July 31st Simulations



Furcal So Long ...


Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Favorite: Dodgers ML: -117 +112 53.38% Simulator: 59.53%
Vegas Over/Under: 7.5 Over +108 Under -118
Simulator Over/Under: 8.29 Over: 51.67% Under: 48.33% Result: OVER
Top 5 Most Likely Scores: LAN 3-2, LAN 4-3, LAN 2-1, LAN 5-4, ARI 3-2
Joe Saunders: IP 5.71, SO 3.70, BB 1.87, HR 0.71, FIP 4.50
Rubby De La Rosa: IP 6.00, SO 7.11, BB 2.24, HR 0.54, FIP 3.11
Final Score: #30 ARI 6-3

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Pirates Phillies J.Karstens vs V.Worley Phillies 65.52% 69.07% TBD
Cubs Cardinals R.Dempster vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 58.07% 57.79% TBD
NYN WAS John Niese vs Jordan Zimmerman WAS TBD 51.195 TBD
HOU MIL Brett Myers vs Chris Narveson MIL TBD 67.312 TBD
SF CIN Barry Zito vs Johnny Cueto CIN TBD 60.303 TBD
MIN OAK Carl Pavano vs Brandon McCarthy OAK TBD 57.101 TBD
TEX TOR C.J. Wilson vs Brandon Morrow TEX TBD 51.134 TBD
LAA DET Jered Weaver vs Justin Verlander DET TBD 60.61 TBD
TB SEA Jeremy Hellickson vs Jason Vargas SEA TBD 51.742 TBD
BOS CHA Andrew Miller vs Mark Buehrle CHA TBD 51.28 TBD
BAL NYA Jake Arrieta vs Freddy Garcia NYA TBD 68.333 TBD
KC CLE Kyle Davies vs Fausto Carmona CLE TBD 56.65 TBD
COL SD Juan Nicasio vs Wade LeBlanc COL TBD 55.847 TBD
FLA ATL Ricky Nolasco vs Tommy Hanson ATL TBD 58.744 TBD


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Saturday, July 30, 2011

July 30th Simulations



25-25 Vision ...


Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Favorite: Dodgers, ML: -128 +123 55.65% Simulator: 63.05%
Vegas Over/Under: 7 Over -107 Under -103
Simulator Over/Under: 7.54 Over: 50.46% Under: 49.54%
Top 5 Most Likely Scores: LAN 3-2, LAN 2-1, LAN 4-3, LAN 3-1, LAN 5-4
Micah Owings: IP 5.85, SO 3.82, BB 1.95, HR 0.60, FIP 4.22
Chad Billingsley: IP 6.35, SO 7.33, BB 2.03, HR 0.42, FIP 2.70
Final Score: ARI 6-4 #35th Most Likely Score

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Orioles Yankees C.Tillman vs B.Colon Yankees TBD 64.28% NYA 8-3
Orioles Yankees Z.Britton vs I.Nova Yankees TBD 57.59% NYA 17-3
TEX TOR Derek Holland vs Brad Mills TEX 53.16% 52.98% TEX 3-0
MIN OAK Nick Blackburn vs Guillermo Moscoso OAK 55.85% 51.58% OAK 8-3
BOS CHA Jon Lester vs Phil Humber BOS 58.07% 54.48% BOS 10-2
KC CLE Felipe Paulino vs Justin Masterson CLE 60.24% 59.95% CLE 5-2
FLA ATL Anibal Sanchez vs Tim Hudson ATL 58.42% 53.65% ATL 5-1
TB SEA Alex Cobb vs Michael Pineda SEA 52.04% 54.30% SEA 3-2
CHN STL Rodrigo Lopez vs Kyle Lohse STL 62.76% 65.03% STL 13-5
HOU MIL J.A. Happ vs Yovanni Gallardo MIL 71.35% 67.55% MIL 6-2
Giants Reds M.Bumgarner vs M.Leake Reds 52.72% 44.07% CIN 7-2
LAA DET Dan Haren vs Duane Below LAA 54.85% 50.09% LAA 5-1
NYN WAS R.A. Dickey vs Jason Marquis NYN 50.62% 48.73% WAS 3-0
Pirates Phillies J.McDonald vs C.Lee Phillies 70.76% 70.82% PHI 7-4
Rockies Padres U.Jimenez vs A.Harang Rockies 55.06% 56.53% COL 10-6


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Friday, July 29, 2011

July 29th Simulations



Deadline Passes On Dodgers Season ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers J.Collmenter vs T.Lilly DBacks 52.27% 51.20% LAN 9-5
Royals Indians J.Francis vs C.Carrasco Indians 55.46% 56.50% KC 12-0
Rockies Padres J.Hammel vs T.Stauffer Padres 54.02% 55.60% COL 3-2
Rangers Blue Jays A.Ogando vs B.Cecil Rangers 54.65% 55.60% TOR 3-2
Marlins Braves C.Hensley vs B.Beachy Braves 60.86% 62.93% FLA 5-0
Angels Tigers T.Chatwood vs R.Porcello Tigers 58.07% 61.20% DET 12-2
Mets Nationals D.Gee vs C.Wang Mets 52.941% 52.936% NYN 8-5
Twins Athletics F.Liriano vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 57.17% 55.86% MIN 9-5
Pirates Phillies C.Morton vs R.Halladay Phillies 72.30% 67.64% PHI 10-3
Red Sox White Sox T.Wakefield vs G.Floyd White Sox 50.62% 52.07% CHA 3-1
Rays Mariners J.Niemann vs E.Bedard Rays 50.62% 46.85% TB 8-0
Orioles Yankees J.Guthrie vs A.Burnett Yankees 65.22% 60.54% BAL 4-2
Astros Brewers J.Lyles vs R.Wolf Brewers 63.57% 63.41% MIL 4-0
Cubs Cardinals M.Garza vs E.Jackson Cardinals 55.46% 63.97% STL 9-2
Giants Reds R.Vogelsong vs D.Willis Reds 50.86% 52.02% CIN 4-3


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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

July 28th Simulations



So Long Farewell ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Mets Reds C.Capuano vs H.Bailey Reds 57.17% 51.99% NYN 10-9
Twins Rangers S.Baker vs M.Harrison Rangers 59.27% 56.16% TBD
Angels Tigers J.Pineiro vs B.Penny Tigers 56.62% 59.08% LAA 12-7
Astros Cardinals W.Rodriguez vs J.Garcia Cardinals 64.35% 70.10% TBD
Pirates Braves K.Correia vs D.Lowe Braves 60.86% 64.01% PIT 5-2
Cubs Brewers R.Wells vs S.Marcum Brewers 64.22% 61.28% MIL 4-2
Marlins Nationals C.Hensley vs J.Lannan Nationals TBD 59.41% FLA 5-2
DBacks Padres D.Hudson vs M.Latos Padres 50.62% 52.23% SD 4-3
Rays Athletics W.Davis vs R.Harden Athletics 54.65% 54.15% TB 10-8
Giants Phillies T.Lincecum vs K.Kendrick Giants 56.24% 56.35% SF 4-1
Orioles Blue Jays B.Bergesen vs C.Villanueva Blue Jays 59.76% 54.84% TOR 8-5
Royals Red Sox L.Hochevar vs J.Beckett Red Sox 72.86% 74.70% KC 4-3


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July 27th Simulations



Swan Song ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers A.Cook vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 58.33% 52.16% COL 3-1
Angels Indians E.Santana vs D.Huff Angels TBD 50.73% LAA 3-1
Orioles Blue Jays A.Simon vs R.Romero Blue Jays TBD 53.30% TOR 3-0
Mets Reds M.Pelfrey vs B.Arroyo Reds TBD 52.34% NYN 8-2
Royals Red Sox B.Chen vs J.Lackey Red Sox TBD 68.75% BOS 12-5
Pirates Braves P.Maholm vs J.Jurrjens Braves TBD 60.47% ATL 2-1
Marlins Nationals J.Vazquez vs L.Hernandez Nationals TBD 59.63% FLA 7-5
Cubs Brewers C.Zambrano vs Z.Greinke Brewers TBD 62.28% MIL 2-0
DBacks Padres I.Kennedy vs C.Luebke Padres TBD 54.84% ARI 4-3
Tigers White Sox M.Scherzer vs J.Danks White Sox TBD 50.33% CHA 2-1
Rays Athletics J.Shields vs T.Cahill Rays TBD 50.16% OAK 13-4
Twins Rangers B.Duensing vs C.Lewis Rangers TBD 55.35% MIN 7-2
Astros Cardinals B.Norris vs C.Carpenter Cardinals TBD 68.15% HOU 4-2
Giants Phillies M.Cain vs C.Hamels Phillies TBD 60.71% SF 2-1
Mariners Yankees F.Hernandez vs P.Hughes Yankees TBD 59.62% SEA 9-2




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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

July 26th Simulations



Yippity Doo Dah ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 59.43% 57.09% LAN 3-2
Mariners Yankees D.Fister vs C.Sabathia Yankees 74.68% 68.54% NYA 4-1
Astros Cardinals B.Myers vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 62.05% 65.01% STL 3-1
Tigers White Sox J.Verlander vs J.Peavy Tigers 60.08% 55.68% DET 5-4
Giants Phillies T.Lincecum vs V.Worley Phillies 51.34% 54.62% PHI 7-2
Angels Indians J.Weaver vs J.Tomlin Angels 56.24% 56.01% LAA 2-1
DBacks Padres J.Saunders vs D.Moseley Padres 52.49% 56.34% ARI 6-1
Royals Red Sox D.Duffy vs A.Miller Red Sox 63.70% 68.37% BOS 13-9
Mets Reds J.Niese vs J.Cueto Reds 58.59% 50.00% NYN 8-6
Cubs Brewers R.Dempster vs C.Narveson Brewers 57.54% 57.16% MIL 3-2
Rays Athletics D.Price vs B.McCarthy Rays 56.99% 48.78% OAK 6-1
Twins Rangers C.Pavano vs C.Wilson Rangers 67.21% 65.83% MIN 9-8
Pirates Braves J.Karstens vs T.Hanson Braves 63.96% 69.37% ATL 4-3
Marlins Nationals R.Nolasco vs J.Zimmerman Nationals 56.62% 55.85% FLA 11-2
Orioles Blue Jays J.Arrieta vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 63.30% 60.78% BAL 12-4




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Monday, July 25, 2011

July 25th Simulations



Operation Third Place ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers J.Nicasio vs R.De La Rosa Dodgers 52.49% 48.82% LAN 8-5
Mariners Yankees J.Vargas vs F.Garcia Yankees 66.89% 65.47% NYA 10-3
Pirates Braves J.McDonald vs T.Hudson Braves 64.85% 64.88% PIT 3-1
Rays Athletics J.Hellickson vs G.Moscoso Rays 53.38% 49.36% OAK 7-5
Angels Indians D.Haren vs F.Carmona Angels 54.65% 55.20% CLE 3-2
Astros Cardinals J.Happ vs K.McClellan Cardinals 64.85% 65.31% STL 10-5
Royals Red Sox K.Davies vs J.Lester Red Sox 72.38% 73.05% KC 3-1
Tigers White Sox D.Below vs M.Buehrle White Sox 57.36% 53.99% CHA 6-3
Twins Rangers N.Blackburn vs D.Holland Rangers 62.76% 60.47% TEX 20-6
Mets Reds R.Dickey vs M.Leake Reds 56.99% 54.51% NYN 4-2
Padres Phillies A.Harang vs C.Lee Phillies 68.75% 68.77% SD 5-4




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Saturday, July 23, 2011

July 24th Simulations



Bet The Under on Dodgers and Billingsley ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Nationals Dodgers J.Marquis vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 55.85% 59.05% LAN 3-1
Blue Jays Rangers B.Cecil vs A.Ogando Rangers 66.67% 66.77% TOR 3-0
Mariners Red Sox M.Pineda vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 58.59% 57.95% BOS 12-8
Angels Orioles T.Chatwood vs J.Guthrie Orioles 53.16% 56.13% LAA 9-3
Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs M.Bumgarner Giants 51.10% 61.69% SF 2-1
White Sox Indians P.Humber vs J.Masterson Indians 56.04% 56.06% CHA 4-2
Padres Phillies T.Stauffer vs R.Halladay Phillies 68.75% 66.20% PHI 5-3
Rockies DBacks U.Jimenez vs M.Owings Rockies TBD 58.84% ARI 7-0
Rays Royals A.Cobb vs F.Paulino Royals TBD 56.77% TB 5-0
Astros Cubs J.Lyles vs M.Garza Cubs TBD 66.54% CHN 5-4
Athletics Yankees G.Gonzalez vs B.Colon Yankees TBD 58.88% NYA 7-5
Cardinals Pirates K.Lohse vs C.Morton Cardinals TBD 52.89% PIT 4-3
Tigers Twins R.Porcello vs F.Liriano Twins TBD 54.64% DET 5-2
Mets Marlins D.Gee vs A.Sanchez Marlins TBD 57.15% FLA 5-4
Braves Reds B.Beachy vs D.Willis Reds TBD 51.60% CIN 4-3




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July 23rd Simulations



Ted Home Run Derby Lilly ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Nationals Dodgers T.Gorzelanny vs T.Lilly Dodgers 56.04% 54.82% LAN 7-6
White Sox Indians E.Jackson vs D.Huff Indians 50.62% 47.61% Ppd.
Cardinals Pirates J.Garcia vs K.Correia Cardinals 56.62% 63.66% STL 9-1
Padres Phillies M.Latos vs K.Kendrick Phillies 57.17% 51.72% PHI 8-6
Tigers Twins B.Penny vs S.Baker Twins 56.24% 57.62% MIN 4-1
Athletics Yankees R.Harden vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.83% 64.50% OAK 4-3
Mets Marlins C.Capuano vs C.Hensley Marlins 54.85% 46.27% FLA 8-5
Braves Reds D.Lowe vs H.Bailey Reds 54.23% 52.08% CIN 11-2
Brewers Giants R.Wolf vs R.Vogelsong Giants 55.26% 55.84% SF 4-2
Angels Orioles J.Pineiro vs B.Bergesen Orioles 50.62% 55.34% BAL 3-2
Rays Royals J.Niemann vs J.Francis Rays 50.62% 50.57% KC 5-4
Rockies DBacks J.Hammel vs J.Collmenter DBacks 58.59% 57.72% ARI 12-3
Blue Jays Rangers C.Villanueva vs M.Harrison Rangers 60.55% 64.02% TEX 5-4
Astros Cubs W.Rodriguez vs R.Wells Cubs 52.72% 53.37% CHN 5-1
Mariners Red Sox B.Beavan vs J.Beckett Red Sox 72.49% 71.05% BOS 3-1




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Friday, July 22, 2011

July 22nd Simulations



Hiroki Kuroda Appreciation Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Nationals Dodgers J.Lannan vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 57.36% 56.77% WAS 7-2
Braves Reds J.Jurrjens vs B.Arroyo Braves 53.81% 51.22% ATL 6-4
Astros Cubs B.Norris vs C.Zambrano Cubs 58.42% 57.38% CHN 4-2
Angels Orioles E.Santana vs A.Simon Angels 51.34% 46.62% LAA 6-1
Cardinals Pirates C.Carpenter vs P.Maholm Cardinals 55.85% 57.54% STL 6-4
Athletics Yankees T.Cahill vs P.Hughes Yankees 61.01% 61.86% NYA 17-7
Tigers Twins M.Scherzer vs B.Duensing Twins TBD 52.45% DET 8-2
Rockies DBacks A.Cook vs D.Hudson DBacks TBD 56.06% COL 8-4
Blue Jays Rangers J.Reyes vs C.Lewis Rangers TBD 65.92% TEX 12-2
White Sox Indians G.Floyd vs C.Carrasco Indians TBD 52.64% CHA 3-0
Brewers Giants S.Marcum vs M.Cain Giants TBD 60.30% MIL 4-2
Padres Phillies C.Luebke vs C.Hamels Phillies TBD 63.69% PHI 3-1
Rays Royals W.Davis vs L.Hochevar Rays TBD 51.34% KC 10-4
Mets Marlins M.Pelfrey vs C.Volstad Marlins TBD 53.09% NYN 7-6
Mariners Red Sox F.Hernandez vs J.Lackey Red Sox 56.99% 59.97% BOS 7-4




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Wednesday, July 20, 2011

July 21st Simulations



Travel Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Tigers Twins J.Verlander vs C.Pavano Tigers 60.08% 58.19% DET 6-2
Padres Marlins D.Moseley vs J.Vazquez Marlins 61.32% 58.74% SD 5-3
Braves Rockies T.Hanson vs J.Chacin Rockies 50.62% 56.70% ATL 9-6
Yankees Rays C.Sabathia vs J.Shields Yankees 56.99% 58.63% TB 2-1
Brewers DBacks Z.Greinke vs I.Kennedy DBacks 51.10% 49.75% ARI 4-0
Mariners Blue Jays D.Fister vs R.Romero Blue Jays 63.30% 51.88% TOR 7-5
Rangers Angels C.Wilson vs J.Weaver Angels 54.23% 49.14% LAA 1-0
Cardinals Mets J.Westbrook vs J.Niese Mets 52.72% 55.13% STL 6-2




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July 20th Simulations



Kershcum ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Giants C.Kershaw vs T.Lincecum Giants 55.85% 54.59% LAN 1-0
Cardinals Mets K.McClellan vs R.Dickey Mets 51.10% 48.92% NYN 6-5
Red Sox Orioles A.Miller vs J.Arrieta Red Sox 52.94% 53.57% BOS 4-0
Brewers DBacks C.Narveson vs J.Saunders DBacks 50.86% 46.53% MIL 5-2
Nationals Astros L.Hernandez vs B.Myers Astros 52.49% 49.48% HOU 3-2
White Sox Royals J.Danks vs B.Chen White Sox 52.94% 51.19% KC 2-1
Mariners Blue Jays J.Vargas vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 60.40% 60.84% TOR 11-6
Yankees Rays F.Garcia vs D.Price Rays 57.72% 53.86% NYA 4-0
Athletics Tigers B.McCarthy vs D.Below Tigers 54.65% 54.75% OAK 7-5
Reds Pirates J.Cueto vs J.Karstens Reds 54.85% 57.88% CIN 3-1
Padres Marlins A.Harang vs R.Nolasco Marlins 58.59% 62.04% SD 14-3
Rangers Angels D.Holland vs D.Haren Angels 56.62% 51.70% LAA 9-8
Indians Twins J.Tomlin vs N.Blackburn Twins 52.49% 54.99% MIN 7-5
Phillies Cubs V.Worley vs R.Dempster Phillies 50.11% 45.34% PHI 9-1
Braves Rockies T.Hudson vs J.Nicasio Rockies 50.62% 58.22% COL 3-2


Notes from today's Dodgers game: The over/under on today's game is 5.5 (O -117, U 107) is the 5th lowest over/under of the season so far from Vegas. According to the simulator it is the 27th lowest. The simulator says the OVER will hit 50.14% of the time, making this a very fair line.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2011

July 19th Simulations



Rubby Hopes To Garner A Win ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Giants R.DeLaRosa vs M.Bumgarner Giants 57.36% 64.06% SF 5-3
Yankees Rays B.Colon vs J.Hellickson Yankees TBD 53.64% TBD
Reds Pirates M.Leake vs J.McDonald Reds TBD 53.50% TBD
CHA KC Jake Peavy vs Danny Duffy CHA TBD 54.694 TBD
OAK DET Guillermo Moscoso vs Rick Porcello DET TBD 61.302 TBD
SD FLA Tim Stauffer vs Anibal Sanchez FLA TBD 56.548 TBD
CLE MIN Justin Masterson vs Francisco Liriano MIN TBD 55.325 TBD
MIL ARI Yovanni Gallardo vs Barry Enright MIL TBD 54.141 TBD
PHI CHN Cliff Lee vs Matt Garza PHI TBD 50.331 TBD
STL NYN Kyle Lohse vs Dillon Gee STL TBD 54.689 TBD
ATL COL Brandon Beachy vs Ubaldo Jimenez COL TBD 64.315 TBD
WAS HOU Jordan Zimmerman vs J.A. Happ WAS TBD 55.157 TBD
SEA TOR Michael Pineda vs Brett Cecil TOR TBD 50.584 TBD
TEX LAA Alexi Ogando vs Tyler Chatwood TEX TBD 54.582 TBD
BOS BAL Kyle Weiland vs Jeremy Guthrie BAL TBD 50.153 TBD


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Sunday, July 17, 2011

July 18th Simulations



Ryan Vogelsong, FIPster ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs R.Vogelsong Giants 55.46% 51.74% SF 5-0
Brewers DBacks R.Wolf vs J.Collmenter DBacks 54.85% 58.09% ARI 3-0
Phillies Cubs R.Halladay vs R.Lopez Phillies 64.48% 59.42% TBD
Yankees Rays A.Burnett vs A.Cobb Yankees 53.60% 51.48% TBD
White Sox Royals M.Buehrle vs K.Davies White Sox 54.02% 52.72% TBD
Red Sox Orioles T.Wakefield vs B.Bergesen Red Sox 54.85% 52.04% TBD
Reds Pirates D.Willis vs J.McDonald Pirates 51.10% 49.63% TBD
Braves Rockies D.Lowe vs J.Hammel Rockies 54.23% 57.85% TBD
Nationals Astros J.Marquis vs J.Lyles Nationals 50.62% 52.51% TBD
Indians Twins D.Huff vs A.Swarzak Twins TBD 55.27% CLE 5-2
Indians Twins F.Carmona vs S.Diamond Twins TBD 54.52% TBD
Marlins Mets C.Hensley vs C.Capuano Mets 55.85% 57.72% TBD


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July 17th Simulations



Lilly Free Baseball Souvenir Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers DBacks T.Lilly vs D.Hudson DBacks 60.16% 64.51% ARI 4-1
BOS TB Josh Beckett vs Jeff Niemann BOS 57.08% 58.53% BOS 1-0
MIL COL Shaun Marcum vs Aaron Cook COL 50.00% 59.84% MIL 4-3
NYA TOR Phil Hughes vs Carlos Villanueva NYA 53.49% 54.47% NYA 7-2
PIT HOU Kevin Correia vs Wandy Rodriguez HOU 55.36% 56.33% PIT 7-5
Cardinals Reds J.Garcia vs H.Bailey Reds 51.22% 41.35% CIN 3-1
Marlins Cubs C.Volstad vs R.Wells Marlins 51.22% 42.80% FLA 7-5
LAA OAK Joel Pineiro vs Gio Gonzalez OAK 56.71% 57.45% OAK 9-1
CLE BAL Jeanmar Gomez vs Mitch Atkins BAL 50.20% 57.50% BAL 8-3
KC MIN Felipe Paulino vs Brian Duensing MIN 54.75% 57.79% MIN 4-3
Giants Padres M.Cain vs M.Latos Padres 51.92% 52.42% SF 4-3
WAS ATL Tom Gorzelanny vs Jair Jurrjens ATL 62.26% 62.98% ATL 9-8
TEX SEA Matt Harrison vs Blake Beavan TEX 56.90% 57.75% TEX 3-1
PHI NYN Kyle Kendrick vs Mike Pelfrey PHI 50.80% 50.78% PHI 8-5
White Sox Tigers P.Humber vs B.Penny Tigers 51.92% 54.59% DET 4-3


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Saturday, July 16, 2011

July 16th Simulations



Kuroda Trade Bait ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers DBacks H.Kuroda vs I.Kennedy DBacks 55.65% 55.85% ARI 3-2
Nationals Braves J.Lannan vs T.Hanson Braves 63.57% 62.04% WAS 5-2
White Sox Tigers E.Jackson vs M.Scherzer Tigers TBD 57.28% CHA 5-0
Cardinals Reds C.Carpenter vs B.Arroyo Cardinals TBD 59.80% STL 4-1
Brewers Rockies Z.Greinke vs J.Chacin Rockies TBD 56.43% MIL 8-7
Royals Twins J.Francis vs C.Pavano Twins TBD 58.61% MIN 4-3
Rangers Mariners C.Wilson vs F.Hernandez Rangers TBD 53.56% TBD
Yankees Blue Jays C.Sabathia vs R.Romero Yankees TBD 63.03% NYA 4-1
Giants Padres B.Zito vs C.Luebke Padres TBD 58.14% SD 11-3
Red Sox Rays J.Lackey vs J.Shields Rays TBD 51.07% BOS 9-5
Pirates Astros P.Maholm vs B.Norris Astros TBD 55.51% HOU 6-4
Phillies Mets C.Hamels vs J.Niese Phillies TBD 52.05% NYN 11-2
Indians Orioles C.Carrasco vs A.Simon Orioles TBD 53.10% BAL 6-5
Marlins Cubs J.Vazquez vs C.Zambrano Cubs TBD 62.38% FLA 13-3
Angels Atheletics J.Weaver vs T.Cahill Angels TBD 51.66% LAA 4-2
Angels Atheletics E.Santana vs R.Harden Atheletics TBD 50.66% OAK 4-3


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Thursday, July 14, 2011

July 15th Simulations



Kershaw's Last Stand ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs J.Saunders Dodgers 54.65% 57.88% LAN 6-4
Cardinals Reds J.Westbrook vs J.Cueto Reds 60.24% 53.60% CIN 6-5
Phillies Mets V.Worley vs R.Dickey Phillies 50.86% 51.99% PHI 7-2
Royals Twins L.Hochevar vs N.Blackburn Twins 54.65% 60.06% KC 2-1
Rangers Mariners C.Lewis vs D.Fister Rangers 52.72% 47.45% TEX 4-0
Marlins Cubs R.Nolasco vs R.Dempster Cubs 52.49% 54.19% CHN 2-1
Angels Athletics D.Haren vs B.McCarthy Angels 53.60% 46.48% OAK 5-3
Yankees Blue Jays F.Garcia vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 50.62% 50.60% TOR 7-1
Pirates Astros J.Karstens vs B.Myers Astros 50.86% 53.57% PIT 4-0
White Sox Tigers G.Floyd vs J.Verlander Tigers 65.22% 65.29% CHA 8-2
Brewers Rockies C.Narveson vs J.Nicasio Rockies 54.44% 54.95% COL 4-0
Indians Orioles J.Tomlin vs J.Arrieta Orioles 52.27% 52.40% CLE 6-5
Nationals Braves L.Hernandez vs T.Hudson Braves 62.89% 57.84% ATL 11-1
Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs D.Moseley Giants 56.04% 55.04% SF 6-1
Red Sox Rays A.Miller vs D.Price Rays 58.59% 58.96% TB 9-6


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Tuesday, July 12, 2011

July 14th Simulations



Dodgers Earn Home Field Advantage in the World Series ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Indians Orioles J.Masterson vs J.Guthrie Indians 50.86% 52.11% CLE 8-4
Brewers Rockies Y.Gallardo vs U.Jimenez Rockies 57.17% 65.17% COL 12-3
Royals Twins B.Chen vs F.Liriano Twins 59.76% 61.93% MIN 8-4
Yankees Blue Jays B.Colon vs J.Reyes Yankees 57.54% 53.43% TOR 16-7
Giants Padres M.Bumgarner vs A.Harang Padres 51.10% 42.96% SF 6-2
Rangers Mariners D.Holland vs J.Vargas Rangers 52.04% 53.39% TEX 5-0
Marlins Cubs A.Sanchez vs M.Garza Cubs 52.72% 53.19% FLA 6-3


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Monday, July 11, 2011

The 2011 All-Flub Teams


Recently, Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs authored an article where he listed the 2011 All-Flub Teams. Steve included both an NL and AL team of players who are the kings of underachievers from both leagues. In the article Steve posed the question of which of these two teams would win a head to head matchup. I volunteered to run the two teams through my baseball simulator to find out. I ran two simulations, one with each league's flops as the home team. I selected Sean O'Sullivan as the American League's top flop pitcher and Armando Galarraga as the National League's starting pitcher. Each matchup was simulated 100K times. I also used neutral park factors for all of the simulated games. Below are the results as well as some of the stats.

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Win Probability Total Runs
American National S.O'Sullivan vs A.Galarraga National 51.567% 9.69
National American A.Galarraga vs S.O'Sullivan American 56.979% 9.71

Results: The simulator thinks that the American League team is slightly better. If you average the win probability of the away/home series the American League wins 52.706% of the time, with right around 9.7 runs scoring on average. Below are some of the box score stats taken from the matchup where the National League was the home team.

Pitchers Boxscores
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Sean O'Sullivan5.6973.0251.9826.8410.74891.5554.888
Jon Rauch0.4450.3430.1010.4650.0516.823.819
Mike Gonzalez0.4130.3640.1680.4320.0636.7914.641
Daniel Schlereth0.670.5730.3520.7210.10811.4585.158
Jason Berken0.4190.3170.1440.4710.0716.7754.912
Adam Russell0.6990.3650.3240.8050.05811.534.632
Joe Nathan0.3430.2980.1190.3650.0525.5514.484
Andy Sonnanstine0.0180.0090.0060.0220.0030.2865.647
        
Armando Galarraga5.8083.1642.1467.0730.62194.4354.609
Ryan Franklin0.4090.30.0850.4670.0616.3374.298
Michael Dunn0.4290.4450.1930.4140.0447.1493.8
Pat Neshek0.7120.5640.3670.7840.08712.1314.745
Sean Burnett0.4830.3510.1680.5350.0457.7713.996
Miguel Batista0.970.6370.461.1220.08616.2774.461
John Grabow0.3540.2280.1580.420.0445.9164.856
Aneury Rodriguez0.0070.0050.0020.0080.0010.1144.366

Hitters Boxscore
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBABABIP
Juan Pierre4.571.4061.1380.170.0390.060.3990.420.3710.3430.325
Chone Figgins4.3891.3680.9590.3240.020.0640.4660.4060.6070.3570.351
Alex Rios4.4571.3740.9180.3230.0190.1140.590.2790.540.3540.331
Justin Morneau4.21.270.7730.3270.0110.160.6730.4810.5880.3790.322
Adam Dunn3.9231.0130.4970.290.0040.2210.6940.6511.1780.3750.314
David Murphy3.9621.2180.8130.2370.020.1480.6010.4910.5890.3820.332
Orlando Cabrera4.081.1680.7780.2970.0130.0810.5030.2210.470.3270.308
Cliff Pennington3.8661.0920.7540.2390.0360.0630.4490.3250.640.3310.325
Jeff Mathis3.7850.9150.5940.2380.0060.0770.4290.3050.7110.2950.28
            
Mike Cameron4.311.2450.6940.3750.0430.1330.4970.3810.6150.360.312
Ryan Spilborghs4.1291.2260.760.2930.0170.1570.5380.4420.6710.3710.324
Aubrey Huff4.0321.1510.7190.2460.0290.1580.560.5090.5490.3680.299
Chris Johnson4.1571.2310.7660.3170.0310.1180.5890.230.7330.3480.337
Raul Ibanez3.881.1320.6720.2720.0280.160.6140.4470.6230.3740.314
Casey McGehee3.8321.1130.690.280.0040.1390.5610.3310.5480.3560.31
Bill Hall3.7611.0370.590.2980.0340.1150.4980.2960.6970.3430.313
Yuniesky Betancourt3.7611.0670.6990.2420.0340.0930.4640.1870.3640.3290.295
Dioner Navarro3.4730.9180.5920.2270.0190.0810.3980.3730.4930.330.289


And here is a bar chart showing how the run totals are distributed. The x-axis the total runs scored in the game and the y-axis is how many occurrences this happened. As you can tell from the chart a run total of 7 and 9 runs is the most common occurrence.

Photobucket

Sunday, July 10, 2011

July 10th Simulations



Another 1-0 game? ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Padres Dodgers T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly Dodgers 50.50% 49.53% LAN 4-1
Braves Phillies D.Lowe vs C.Hamels Phillies 62.55% 61.52% PHI 14-1
COL WAS Jhoulys Chacin vs Jordan Zimmerman WAS TBD 55.131 WAS 2-0
HOU FLA Wandy Rodriguez vs Chris Volstad FLA TBD 53.094 FLA 5-4
CHN PIT Ramon Ortiz vs Paul Maholm PIT TBD 56.784 PIT 9-1
MIN CHA Anthony Swarzak vs Jake Peavy CHA TBD 59.954 MIN 6-3
NYN SF Mike Pelfrey vs Matt Cain SF TBD 64.596 SF 4-2
TB NYA James Shields vs C.C. Sabathia NYA TBD 70.348 NYA 1-0
OAK TEX Trevor Cahill vs Matt Harrison TEX TBD 55.208 TEX 2-0
ARI STL Zach Duke vs Jaime Garcia STL TBD 66.504 STL 4-2
DET KC Justin Verlander vs Jeff Francis DET TBD 59.532 DET 2-1
SEA LAA Felx Hernandez vs Dan Haren LAA TBD 55.951 LAA 4-2
TOR CLE Brett Cecil vs Carlos Carrasco CLE TBD 60.03 TOR 7-1
BAL BOS Mitch Atkins vs Kyle Weiland BOS TBD 63.585 BOS 8-6
CIN MIL Dontrelle Willis vs Randy Wolf MIL TBD 61.503 MIL 4-3


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Saturday, July 09, 2011

July 9th Simulations



First One To Score Wins ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Padres Dodgers A.Harang vs R.DeLaRosa Dodgers 54.65% 56.15% LAN 1-0
DBacks Cardinals D.Hudson vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 57.17% 59.83% TBD
Tigers Royals C.Furbush vs L.Hochevar Royals 52.94% 45.58% TBD
Orioles Red Sox A.Simon vs J.Lackey Red Sox TBD 61.84% TBD
Athletics Rangers B.McCarthy vs C.Lewis Rangers 62.62% 48.31% TBD
Reds Brewers J.Cueto vs S.Marcum Brewers 50.62% 59.62% TBD
CHN PIT Ryan Dempster vs Kevin Correia CHN TBD 53.307 TBD
COL WAS Ubaldo Jimenez vs Jason Marquis COL TBD 54.396 TBD
TOR CLE Brandon Morrow vs Josh Tomlin TOR TBD 52.694 TBD
Mariners Angels M.Pineda vs J.Pineiro Mariners 50.86% 48.16% TBD
HOU FLA Brett Myers vs Ricky Nolasco FLA TBD 63.105 TBD
NYN SF Chris Capuano vs Tim Lincecum SF TBD 62.64 TBD
ATL PHI Tommy Hanson vs Cliff Lee PHI TBD 58.793 TBD
TB NYA David Price vs A.J. Burnett NYA TBD 53.349 TBD
Twins White Sox B.Duensing vs M.Buehrle White Sox 59.76% 52.61% TBD


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Friday, July 08, 2011

July 8th Simulations



Latos Intolerable ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.23% 57.97% LAN 1-0
Athletics Rangers G.Gonzalez vs C.Wilson Rangers 60.24% 62.52% TEX 8-5
Rays Yankees J.Hellickson vs F.Garcia Yankees 58.93% 67.35% Ppd.
Mets Giants R.Dickey vs R.Vogelsong Giants 56.43% 60.30% NYN 5-2
Astros Marlins J.Lyles vs J.Vazquez Marlins 58.07% 56.83% FLA 6-3
Blue Jays Indians J.Reyes vs M.Talbot Indians 51.57% 50.53% TOR 11-7
Tigers Royals R.Porcello vs K.Davies Tigers 53.16% 57.55% DET 6-4
DBacks Cardinals I.Kennedy vs K.Lohse Cardinals 54.02% 63.04% ARI 7-6
Braves Phillies B.Beachy vs R.Halladay Phillies 62.76% 69.37% PHI 3-2
Reds Brewers M.Leake vs Z.Greinke Brewers 56.43% 56.42% MIL 8-7
Cubs Pirates R.Lopez vs J.McDonald Pirates 56.24% 53.24% PIT 7-4
Mariners Angels B.Beavan vs E.Santana Angels 61.46% 58.53% LAA 4-3
Twins White Sox N.Blackburn vs G.Floyd White Sox 61.01% 57.68% MIN 8-5
Orioles Red Sox Z.Britton vs J.Beckett Red Sox 67.00% 59.84% BOS 10-3
Rockies Nationals J.Hammel vs J.Lannan Nationals 56.43% 50.35% COL 3-2


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Thursday, July 07, 2011

July 7th Simulations



Kershaw Hoping To Avoid Area 52 Losses ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Mets Dodgers D.Gee vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 58.76% 64.96% LAN 6-0
Reds Brewers H.Bailey vs C.Narveson Brewers 52.04% 49.88% TBD
Athletics Rangers R.Harden vs D.Holland Rangers 55.65% 63.47% TBD
Tigers Royals M.Scherzer vs D.Duffy Tigers 55.06% 60.95% TBD
DBacks Cardinals J.Saunders vs K.McClellan Cardinals 57.36% 65.69% TBD
Rockies Braves J.Nicasio vs T.Hudson Braves TBD 58.79% ATL 6-3
BAL BOS Jake Arrieta vs Andrew Miller BOS TBD 58.809 TBD
SD SF Cory Luebke vs Barry Zito SF TBD 53.069 TBD
HOU FLA J.A. Happ vs Brad Hand FLA TBD 54.909 TBD
MIN CHA Carl Pavano vs Phil Humber CHA TBD 56.915 TBD
TOR CLE Carlos Villanueva vs Zach McAllister TOR TBD 52.34 TBD
SEA LAA Doug Fister vs Jered Weaver LAA TBD 58.55 TBD
CHN WAS Matt Garza vs Livan Hernandez WAS TBD 55.314 TBD
TB NYA Jeff Niemann vs Bartolo Colon NYA TBD 70.682 TBD


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Wednesday, July 06, 2011

July 6th Simulations



50 Ways To Lose Your Game ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Mets Dodgers J.Niese vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 54.23% 50.97% TBD
Rockies Braves A.Cook vs J.Jurrjens Braves 64.85% 58.69% TBD
Reds Cardinals B.Arroyo vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 54.85% 59.93% TBD
Rays Twins W.Davis vs F.Liriano Twins 54.23% 58.82% TB 12-5
DBacks Brewers J.Collmenter vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 60.08% 57.43% MIL 3-1
Orioles Rangers J.Guthrie vs A.Ogando Rangers 63.83% 64.67% TBD
Blue Jays Red Sox R.Romero vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 52.49% 53.17% TBD
Phillies Marlins K.Kendrick vs A.Sanchez Marlins 55.06% 58.89% TBD
Padres Giants D.Moseley vs M.Bumgarner Giants 60.71% 66.01% TBD
Mariners Athletics J.Vargas vs G.Moscoso Athletics 54.02% 50.56% OAK 2-0
Cubs Nationals R.Wells vs T.Gorzelanny Nationals 56.24% 54.23% TBD
Astros Pirates B.Norris vs C.Morton Pirates 53.16% 51.37% TBD
Royals White Sox B.Chen vs E.Jackson White Sox 58.59% 64.62% KC 4-1
Yankees Indians P.Hughes vs J.Masterson Indians 50.62% 53.98% TBD
Tigers Angels B.Penny vs T.Chatwood Angels 52.72% 50.52% DET 5-4


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Tuesday, July 05, 2011

July 5th Simulations



Blogger Night! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Mets Dodgers M.Pelfrey vs T.Lilly Dodgers 54.44% 55.30% NYN 6-0
Astros Pirates W.Rodriguez vs J.Karstens Pirates 53.81% 48.66% PIT 5-1
Orioles Rangers M.Atkins vs M.Harrison Rangers 61.90% 61.92% TEX 4-2
Rays Twins J.Shields vs S.Baker Rays 51.81% 47.46% MIN 3-2
Cubs Nationals R.Ortiz vs R.Detwiler Nationals 56.43% 56.42% WAS 3-2
Phillies Marlins C.Hamels vs C.Volstad Phillies 60.71% 66.46% PHI 14-2
Tigers Angels J.Verlander vs D.Haren Tigers 52.94% 52.35% LAA 1-0
KC CHA Felipe Paulino vs Jake Peavy CHA TBD 56.98% KC 5-3
CIN STL Edinson Volquez vs Jaime Garcia STL TBD 60.47% STL 8-1
SEA OAK Felx Hernandez vs Trevor Cahill OAK TBD 51.59% SEA 4-2
ARI MIL Zach Duke vs Randy Wolf MIL TBD 53.78% ARI 7-3
NYA CLE C.C. Sabathia vs Carlos Carrasco NYA TBD 61.48% NYA 9-2
COL ATL Jhoulys Chacin vs Derek Lowe ATL TBD 51.06% ATL 5-3
Padres Giants T.Stauffer vs M.Cain Giants 60.24% 55.63% SD 5-3
Blue Jays Red Sox B.Cecil vs J.Lester Red Sox 67.21% 66.92% BOS 3-2


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Saturday, July 02, 2011

July 3rd Simulations



Interleague Buh-Bye ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Angels C.Billingsley vs E.Santana Angels TBD 53.38% LAA 3-1
BOS HOU Josh Beckett vs Jordan Lyles BOS TBD 65.086 TBD
PIT WAS Kevin Correia vs Jason Marquis WAS TBD 64.521 TBD
FLA TEX Javier Vazquez vs C.J. Wilson TEX TBD 76.006 TBD
MIL MIN Zach Greinke vs Nick Blackburn MIN TBD 50.285 TBD
SF DET Ryan Vogelsong vs Rick Porcello DET TBD 56.979 TBD
BAL ATL Zach Britton vs Brandon Beachy BAL TBD 50.603 TBD
ARI OAK Ian Kennedy vs Gio Gonzalez OAK TBD 58.057 TBD
NYA NYN Freddy Garcia vs R.A. Dickey NYA TBD 57.979 TBD
STL TB Kyle Lohse vs Jeremy Hellickson TB TBD 54.907 TBD
PHI TOR Cliff Lee vs Jo-Jo Reyes PHI TBD 60.566 TBD
KC COL Luke Hochevar vs Jason Hammel COL TBD 68.708 TBD
CHA CHN Gavin Floyd vs Rodrigo Lopez CHA TBD 52.009 TBD
CLE CIN Mitch Talbot vs Mike Leake CIN TBD 64.237 TBD
Padres Mariners M.Latos vs E.Bedard Mariners TBD 59.34% TBD


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Note: I am on vacation this weekend. Simulations were ran two days in advance. Next simulation will be up Monday night (for Tuesday's games).

July 2nd Simulations



Kershaw vs Weaver, This Time It Almost Counts ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Angels C.Kershaw vs J.Weaver Angels 55.06% 57.85% LAA 7-1
NYA NYN Bartolo Colon vs Dillon Gee NYA TBD 55.155 TBD
BAL ATL Jake Arrieta vs Tim Hudson ATL TBD 56.552 TBD
ARI OAK Joe Saunders vs Josh Outman OAK TBD 58.519 TBD
MIL MIN Chris Narveson vs Carl Pavano MIN TBD 56.149 TBD
BOS HOU Andrew Miller vs J.A. Happ BOS TBD 53.998 TBD
CLE CIN Fausto Carmona vs Homer Bailey CIN TBD 61.863 TBD
PIT WAS James McDonald vs John Lannan WAS TBD 63.172 TBD
PIT WAS Scott Olsen vs Livan Hernandez WAS TBD 68.622 TBD
SF DET Barry Zito vs Max Scherzer DET TBD 67.136 TBD
CHA CHN Phil Humber vs Matt Garza CHN TBD 52.367 TBD
SD SEA Cory Luebke vs Doug Fister SEA TBD 59.59 TBD
FLA TEX Brad Hand vs Derek Holland TEX TBD 70.943 TBD
PHI TOR Roy Halladay vs Carlos Villanueva PHI TBD 64.421 TBD
STL TB Kyle McClellan vs Jeff Niemann TB TBD 55.041 TBD
Royals Rockies K.Davies vs G.Reynolds Rockies TBD 66.12% TBD


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