Monday, July 11, 2011

The 2011 All-Flub Teams

Recently, Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs authored an article where he listed the 2011 All-Flub Teams. Steve included both an NL and AL team of players who are the kings of underachievers from both leagues. In the article Steve posed the question of which of these two teams would win a head to head matchup. I volunteered to run the two teams through my baseball simulator to find out. I ran two simulations, one with each league's flops as the home team. I selected Sean O'Sullivan as the American League's top flop pitcher and Armando Galarraga as the National League's starting pitcher. Each matchup was simulated 100K times. I also used neutral park factors for all of the simulated games. Below are the results as well as some of the stats.

Away Home Starting Pitchers Favorite Win Probability Total Runs
American National S.O'Sullivan vs A.Galarraga National 51.567% 9.69
National American A.Galarraga vs S.O'Sullivan American 56.979% 9.71

Results: The simulator thinks that the American League team is slightly better. If you average the win probability of the away/home series the American League wins 52.706% of the time, with right around 9.7 runs scoring on average. Below are some of the box score stats taken from the matchup where the National League was the home team.

Pitchers Boxscores
Sean O'Sullivan5.6973.0251.9826.8410.74891.5554.888
Jon Rauch0.4450.3430.1010.4650.0516.823.819
Mike Gonzalez0.4130.3640.1680.4320.0636.7914.641
Daniel Schlereth0.670.5730.3520.7210.10811.4585.158
Jason Berken0.4190.3170.1440.4710.0716.7754.912
Adam Russell0.6990.3650.3240.8050.05811.534.632
Joe Nathan0.3430.2980.1190.3650.0525.5514.484
Andy Sonnanstine0.0180.0090.0060.0220.0030.2865.647
Armando Galarraga5.8083.1642.1467.0730.62194.4354.609
Ryan Franklin0.4090.30.0850.4670.0616.3374.298
Michael Dunn0.4290.4450.1930.4140.0447.1493.8
Pat Neshek0.7120.5640.3670.7840.08712.1314.745
Sean Burnett0.4830.3510.1680.5350.0457.7713.996
Miguel Batista0.970.6370.461.1220.08616.2774.461
John Grabow0.3540.2280.1580.420.0445.9164.856
Aneury Rodriguez0.0070.0050.0020.0080.0010.1144.366

Hitters Boxscore
Juan Pierre4.571.4061.1380.170.0390.060.3990.420.3710.3430.325
Chone Figgins4.3891.3680.9590.3240.020.0640.4660.4060.6070.3570.351
Alex Rios4.4571.3740.9180.3230.0190.1140.590.2790.540.3540.331
Justin Morneau4.21.270.7730.3270.0110.160.6730.4810.5880.3790.322
Adam Dunn3.9231.0130.4970.290.0040.2210.6940.6511.1780.3750.314
David Murphy3.9621.2180.8130.2370.020.1480.6010.4910.5890.3820.332
Orlando Cabrera4.081.1680.7780.2970.0130.0810.5030.2210.470.3270.308
Cliff Pennington3.8661.0920.7540.2390.0360.0630.4490.3250.640.3310.325
Jeff Mathis3.7850.9150.5940.2380.0060.0770.4290.3050.7110.2950.28
Mike Cameron4.311.2450.6940.3750.0430.1330.4970.3810.6150.360.312
Ryan Spilborghs4.1291.2260.760.2930.0170.1570.5380.4420.6710.3710.324
Aubrey Huff4.0321.1510.7190.2460.0290.1580.560.5090.5490.3680.299
Chris Johnson4.1571.2310.7660.3170.0310.1180.5890.230.7330.3480.337
Raul Ibanez3.881.1320.6720.2720.0280.160.6140.4470.6230.3740.314
Casey McGehee3.8321.1130.690.280.0040.1390.5610.3310.5480.3560.31
Bill Hall3.7611.0370.590.2980.0340.1150.4980.2960.6970.3430.313
Yuniesky Betancourt3.7611.0670.6990.2420.0340.0930.4640.1870.3640.3290.295
Dioner Navarro3.4730.9180.5920.2270.0190.0810.3980.3730.4930.330.289

And here is a bar chart showing how the run totals are distributed. The x-axis the total runs scored in the game and the y-axis is how many occurrences this happened. As you can tell from the chart a run total of 7 and 9 runs is the most common occurrence.


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