Monday, April 11, 2011

April 12th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 12th Simulations ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum Giants 62.55% 63.76% SF 5-4
Skinny: Pretty good agreement between Vegas and Sim. Lincecum outclasses Billingsley and along with HFA is the difference maker.
Results: Game went according to the book as 9th most likely score hits.
Phillies Nationals J.Blanton vs L.Hernandez Phillies 54.13% 48.17% WAS 7-4
Skinny: Even with R.Zimmerman out the Nationals have an even shot of winning this home game against Phillies worst starter.
Results: Big win for the simulator here as it nails this one.
Indians Angels F.Carmona vs D.Haren Angels 62.12% 59.47% LAA 2-0
Skinny: Decent pitching matchup with edge to Angels. Simulator thinks Angels are over bet a little.
Results: Haren brings the Indians back down to reality.
Cubs Astros J.Russell vs B.Myers Astros 53.49% 54.43% HOU 11-2
Skinny: Cubs put a replacement level pitcher out there on the road against one of the Astros best pitchers. Home field advantage is the difference between being favored or a dog. Pennies on the Astros.
Results: Astros eat up replacement level pitcher.
Reds Padres S.LeCure vs C.Richard Padres 53.05% 54.66% CIN 8-2
Skinny: Should be a pretty close, low scoring game (7 runs?). Padres favored by their HFA margin. Pennies on the Padres.
Results: Well pitched low scoring game just like the sim said, until the Padres bullpen bombs in extra frames.
Athletics White Sox T.Cahill vs E.Jackson White Sox 54.55% 50.12% CHA 6-5
Skinny: Will the clock strike midnight on Edwin Jackson today? Simulator says to bet on it, as it's not ready to jump completely on his bandwagon yet.
Results: Athletics were able to get to Edwin Jackson but the bullpen couldn't hold on to a slim lead.
Rays Red Sox D.Price vs J.Lester Red Sox 62.96% 57.44% TB 3-2
Skinny: The starting pitching matchup is pretty even. HFA and offense give the Red Sox a decent sized edge, but the Rays defense cuts into that edge a little. Too much Red Sox love in the ML.
Results: Nice payout for a David Price pitched game, even if it was on the road in Boston against J.Lester.
Rangers Tigers C.Wilson vs B.Penny Rangers 55.95% 56.91% DET 5-4
Skinny: A very favorable pitching matchup for the Rangers. A pretty fair line. Pennies on the Rangers.
Results: Even game. Texas was let down by their bullpen and losing Josh Hamilton to injury early in the game didn't help matters.
Marlins Braves C.Volstad vs T.Hanson Braves 62.83% 60.69% TBD
Skinny: A likely win for the Braves but slightly over bet. Take the underdog and hope for the best.
Results: C.Volstad dug himself a hole early and Tommy Hanson was just too tough.
Royals Twins J.Francis vs B.Duensing Twins 58.33% 61.60% MIN 4-3
Skinny: Never fun to take a pitcher like Duensing at -140 (ML) but in this case you pretty much have to. Prepare to sweat it out.
Results: Twins fans definitely had to sweat this one out.
Orioles Yankees C.Tillman vs A.Burnett Yankees 62.96% 59.35% Rained out.
Skinny: You would've made a lot of money betting the Orioles every game so far. Let's see if the trend continues against the Yankees. Sim says to ride the horse again.
Rockies Mets E.Rogers vs J.Niese Mets 52.38% 55.76% Rained out.
Skinny: A good value play on the Mets here. Just be prepared to sweat this one out as it should be a close game.
Brewers Pirates S.Marcum vs K.Correia Brewers 53.27% 45.89% TBD
Skinny: Simulator showing some love for the 5-5 Pirates here. I would probably split the difference here making a moderate wager on Pirates.
Results: Rained out.
Cardinals Diamondbacks C.Carpenter vs A.Galarraga Cardinals 57.63% 60.99% ARI 13-8
Skinny: Big pitching mismatch here. Only big worry is HFA for the Diamondbacks. Sim still says to make a solid wager here on the Cardinals.
Results: Definitely did not expect to see the Diamondbacks shell Carpenter.

Seasonal ROI: 0.98%

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The table of likely game scores is here.

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