Sunday, April 10, 2011

April 11th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

April 11th Simulations ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Giants C.Kershaw vs M.Bumgarner Giants 51.92% 51.33% LAN 6-1
Skinny: Very good agreement on the likely outcome of this game (a toss up). Kershaw is obviously the better pitcher, but the Giants even things out with the slightly better offense and the home field advantage.
Results: Nicely done Mr. Kershaw. The difference in class between the two starting pitchers definitely showed tonight.
Rangers Tigers A.Ogando vs J.Verlander Tigers 56.52% 61.38% DET 2-0
Skinny: The Rangers are definitely a hot team right now and the betting public seems to be buying into this as their new true talent baseline. The simulator isn't drinking the kool-aid yet and puts its money on Verlander, the obvious superior starting pitcher.
Results: Ogando matched Verlander pitch for pitch. Another sample in Ogando's sample size will help predicting his outcomes going forward. A loss for the simulator.
Indians Angels M.Talbot vs T.Chatwood Angels 56.52% 51.41% CLE 4-0
Skinny: The Angels leadoff man and regular SS is on the DL and they are putting a replacement level pitcher on the mound. The Indians aren't as good as the Mariners made them look this weekend but are probably a good bet here given the circumstances.
Results: This one was pretty easy to call. Minor league pitcher who saw his peripherals drop as he moved up the minor league chain. Only surprise is that the Angels got blanked, but those things happen.
Reds Padres E.Volquez vs M.Latos Padres 52.61% 56.63% CIN 3-2
Skinny: The Edinson Volquez HR/K/BB machine rolls into San Diego where the Padres Mat Latos will be making his first start of the season. Taking the Padres here, Latos is too good.
Results: The good (but not great) Volquez showed up and Mat Latos was generous with the long ball. Ramon Hernandez killed the Padres with his throwing arm tonight. Opportunities were there, tough loss.
Blue Jays Mariners J.Litsch vs F.Hernandez Mariners 62.96% 63.75% SEA 8-7
Skinny: As bad as the Mariners offense is, one does a double-take when seeing the Mariners as such large favorites. The first thing that comes to my mind is the standard operation procedure for how the Mariners will likely lose this game. Hmmmm, 1-1 tie - Felix gets pulled late in the game and Mariners lose 2-1 in 10 innings. That sounds about right! :) In all seriousness, simulator says put a penny or two on the Mariners.
Skinny: In what was probably a game result in the 0.001th percentile of likely outcomes the Mariners accepted a gift from the Toronto bullpen.
Athletics White Sox D.Braden vs M.Buehrle White Sox 54.55% 50.93% OAK 2-1
Skinny: Lots of ground balls and good infield defense is what makes Dallas Braden so successful and it should be good enough to make this game a toss-up. Given those odds, simulator throws a couple pennies towards the Athletics.
Results: Great pitching duel. Buehrle only gave up 2 hits on 19 batted balls in play. Oakland's bullpen was the difference maker. Simulator pockets a few pennies.
Rockies Mets J.Hammel vs M.Pelfrey Mets 52.83% 48.97% COL 7-6
Skinny: With a bad first start Jason Hammel's true talent (back to back 3.70 FIPs in Colorado) level slips through the cracks here. A toss-up game, but given the odds you have to take the Rockies.
Results: Hammel slightly outpitched Pelfrey and Tulowitzki's bomb came at a good time. A win for the simulator.

Seasonal ROI: 1.01%

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