Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Opening Day Simulation

March 31st Opening Day Simulations ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Units Bet Final Score
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 50.50% 54.59% LAN/0.8 LAN 2-1
Tigers Yankees J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia Yankees 59.35% 58.91% 0.0 NYA 6-3
Royals Angels L.Hochevar vs J.Weaver Angels 58.51% 57.60% 0.0 LAA 4-2
Braves Nationals D.Lowe vs L.Hernandez Braves 58.33% 41.10% WAS/3.4 ATL 2-0
Padres Cardinals T.Stauffer vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 65.52% 60.79% SD/0.6 SD 5-3
Brewers Reds Y.Gallardo vs E.Volquez Reds 53.27% 56.88% CIN/1.0 CIN 7-6

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

Dodgers simulation details/contest at True Blue LA

MLB Scoreboard


Josh Engleman said...

Happy Opening Day! There has to be a typo in the Braves/Nats game, right? If not, what does the sim see that everyone else doesn't?

Xeifrank said...

Josh, yeah - simulator says the Braves are way overrated by Vegas in this game. Probably not by 17% win expectancy though. I'd split the difference. :)

Nationals offense is right up there with Braves. Better defense for the Nats at key positions of 3B, CF, 2B and C (but not at SS).

Pitching matchup is even if you use FIP and solid edge to Lowe if you use xFIP.

Home field advantage swings to Washington.

An argument could be made to favor the Braves but not at 58.33%. I see the line is moving towards the Nats side slightly this morning.

Thanks for the comment!