Using my simulator to play out the 2011 schedules for NL West teams. Each game of each team's actual schedule was simulated 10,000 times. There is obviously some margin of error in these numbers. But they should be as good as anything anybody else puts out there.
Notes: My simulator uses a proprietary set of player projections as input. It also takes into consideration defense, home field advantage, park factors, splits, bullpens, speed, among many other things.