Kershaw Wannabes

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. Note this chart was revised when first brought to my attention that I had only included 2011 data.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
1	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
2	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
3	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
4	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
5	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
6	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
7	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
8	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
9	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
10	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
11	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
12	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
14	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
15	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
16	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
17	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
18	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
19	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
20	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
21	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
22	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
23	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
24	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
25	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
26	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
27	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
28	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
29	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
32	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
33	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
34	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
35	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
36	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
37	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
38	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
39	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
40	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
41	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
42	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
43	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
44	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
45	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
46	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
47	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
48	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
49	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
50	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
51	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
52	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
53	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
54	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
55	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
56	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
57	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
58	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
59	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
60	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
61	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
62	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
63	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
64	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
65	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
66	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
67	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
68	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
69	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
70	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
71	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
72	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
73	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
74	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
75	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
76	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
77	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
80	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
81	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
82	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
83	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
84	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
85	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
86	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
87	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
88	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
89	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
90	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
91	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
92	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
93	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
94	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
95	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
96	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
97	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
98	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
101	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
102	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
105	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
106	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
107	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
108	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
111	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
112	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
113	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
114	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
115	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
116	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
117	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
118	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
119	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
120	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
121	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
125	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
126	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
127	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
128	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
131	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
132	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
133	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
134	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
135	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
136	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
137	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
138	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
139	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
140	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
141	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
142	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
143	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
144	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
145	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
146	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
147	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
148	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
149	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
150	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58

Looking Ahead to 2012

I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

Month	Wins	Losses	WPct
April	13.46	13.54	0.4984
May	14.11	12.89	0.5225
June	13.62	13.38	0.5043
July	13.18	13.82	0.4880
August	13.08	13.92	0.4846
September	12.70	14.30	0.4703
Overall	80.14	81.86	0.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

Name	Wins	Losses	WPct
Kershaw	18.54	14.46	0.5620
Billingsley	15.79	17.22	0.4783
Lilly	15.50	16.50	0.4843
Capuano	15.46	16.54	0.4831
Harang	14.85	17.15	0.4641

Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.

2012 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format

The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home 2430,2012,10,3,LAA,SEA

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2430 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii (comma delimited) file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

How To Handicap Defense In Baseball

Hitting and pitching, they both play a big role in how you should handicap a baseball game. The often forgotten and important piece of the puzzle is defense. Just how much does the removal or addition of a good defensive player effect the likely outcome (think win probability) of a single baseball game?

I am sure there are many ways of solving this problem. The method I am going to use is a theoretical one. First let's take a swag at how many runs per season a good defensive player saves over an average defensive player. I think 20 runs per season is a good conservative number for a good (think Brett Gardner) and a bad one (think Raul Ibanez) costing his team 20 runs per season.

20 runs over a 162 games averages out to around 0.123 runs per game. If we set our run environment to 9 runs per game, which is fairly accurate but the round number makes the math easier, we get a 50/50 game having 4.5 runs for both Team A and Team B. On Vegas with no juice this would be a -100/+100 game on the Money Line (ML). Now let's assume an average defensive player on Team A is replaced with a player who the only difference is, is that he is a +20 (runs saved per season) player. Team A now scores 4.5 runs per 27 outs but Team B now only scores (4.5 - 0.123) 4.377 runs per 27. Using the pythagorean formula for a quick and dirty win probability calculation Team A now has a win probability of 51.3853%. So his glove is worth approximately 1.39% win expectancy. On the Vegas ML the -100/+100 (no juice) line would now look like -106/+106.

This would mean that if we instead put a -20 run defensive player in, instead of the +20 player. We would see Team A get a 48.6147% win probability and be on the other side of the -106/+106 line, for a whopping drop in win expectancy of 2.46% in this example. Of course things are effected a little bit differently based on the run environment and type of pitcher pitching. An infielder in a low run environment game playing behind a ground ball pitcher will have a bigger effect on the game outcome than he would in a game being played in a higher run environment with a strikeout pitcher who sees very few balls put in play.

These are all things to take into consideration and each defensive replacement must be looked at on a case by case basis, but for a rough calculation replacing a great fielder with an average one will cost your team a little over 1% in win probability and replacing a great fielder with a very bad one will cost you around 2.5% in win probability, looking at defense only.

How Did Vegas Do Predicting MLB Games?

A good way to tell how well Vegas (and my simulator) did at predicting winners during the season is to compare blocks of games that had similar odds to each other. For example, I took the 100 games that had the highest favorite to win and calculated the average Vegas win expectancy of those games and compared across the board to my simulator and the actual results. I did this for all 100 blocks of games as well as blocks of 300 and blocks of 600. The smaller the block size the more noise you will have but the more interesting trends you will see. Below are tables of those three types of blocks of games.

100 Blocks of Games					300 Blocks of Games					600 Blocks of Games
Blocks	Veg	Sim	Actual			Vegas	Sim	Actual			Vegas	Sim	Actual
1-100	0.6910	0.6723	0.6700		1-300	0.6615	0.6476	0.6267		1-600	0.6396	0.6301	0.6450
101-200	0.6549	0.6408	0.6100		301-600	0.6177	0.6126	0.6633		601-1200	0.5831	0.5762	0.5867
201-300	0.6387	0.6297	0.6000		601-900	0.5926	0.5858	0.5700		1201-1800	0.5486	0.5410	0.5517
301-400	0.6272	0.6217	0.6500		901-1200	0.5736	0.5666	0.6033		1801-2414	0.5171	0.5138	0.5220
401-500	0.6177	0.6059	0.6400		1201-1500	0.5569	0.5504	0.6033
501-600	0.6081	0.6101	0.7000		1501-1800	0.5404	0.5317	0.5000
601-700	0.5993	0.5943	0.6900		1801-2100	0.5251	0.5196	0.5033
701-800	0.5927	0.5821	0.5100		2101-2414	0.5095	0.5083	0.5399
801-900	0.5858	0.5810	0.5100
901-1000	0.5788	0.5784	0.5900
1000-1100	0.5734	0.5595	0.6100
1100-1200	0.5685	0.5620	0.6100
1201-1300	0.5629	0.5528	0.6500
1301-1400	0.5570	0.5519	0.6000
1401-1500	0.5507	0.5466	0.5600
1501-1600	0.5461	0.5360	0.5500
1601-1700	0.5402	0.5293	0.5400
1701-1800	0.5348	0.5298	0.4100
1801-1900	0.5303	0.5322	0.4600
1901-2000	0.5252	0.5230	0.5300
2001-2100	0.5199	0.5034	0.5200
2101-2200	0.5142	0.5111	0.5000
2201-2300	0.5098	0.5110	0.5400
2301-2414	0.5050	0.5035	0.5702

Matt Kemp, Rich Dude

The Dodgers signed Matt Kemp to an impressive contract this afternoon. Kemp will make $160M over 8 years. Is this a good deal for the Dodgers? I sure hope so. A lot can go wrong in 8 years. Some of the things that should worry Dodgers fans about this contract are Kemp regressing, defense in center field and of course the always unpredictable injury bug. As good as Matt Kemp is, he by no means is an 8.7 WAR player. His "true talent" level may be unknown but the most likely level is probably around 5.5 WAR. A sizeable chunk of Kemp's value comes from his ability to play a scarce position (center field). Kemp is likely an average to slightly above average center fielder. As he gets older he may be moved out of CF to one of the corner outfield positions where more will be expected out of his bat (if not, he gets docked). The injury bug hasn't been a problem for Kemp, so he gets a pass on this one, but of course fluke injuries can happen to the most healthiest of players. That is a risk you just can't mitigate and comes with every player.

In the table below, I take a look at how I value this contract. It of course is a swag but a fun exercise nevertheless. Please feel free to ad your opinion to the mix. In this exercise I am going to start Matt Kemp off as a 5.5 WAR player for 2012 and 2013 before I slowly drop his WAR value down in each of the subsuquent years. I am setting the initial $/WAR value at 4.5M per WAR and assuming a salary inflation rate of 4%.

Year	$/WAR	WAR	Value
2012	4.5	5.5	24.75
2013	4.68	5.5	25.74
2014	4.87	5	24.34
2015	5.06	4.5	22.78
2016	5.26	4	21.06
2017	5.47	3.5	19.16
2018	5.69	3	17.08
2019	5.92	2.5	14.80
Total		33.5	169.71

Assuming my parameters are correct, Kemp's value comes in close to what he is getting paid. There is a total surplus of around $9.7M but a slight adjustment here and there to my input parameters can easily move that up or down another $10M or so. From the looks of things, this does look like a very fair deal to me.

Dodgers Season, Against The Odds

Here is the compiled list of all 161 Dodgers games this season. The list is sorted by the games the Dodgers were the largest favorites in. The game in which the Dodgers were the biggest favorites was an August 13th game at Dodger Stadium against the Houston Astros. Wandy Rodriguez was on the mound for the Astros and Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 67.213% favorites to win that game in Vegas and did end up winning 6-1. If you add up the Vegas win expectancy of all 161 Dodgers games, they should have won 49.94% of their games or won 80.4 games. The Dodgers ended the season with an 82-79 record, so they slightly outperformed their Vegas expectations. Below is the entire list...

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	LAN Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-13-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Clayton Kershaw	HOU	LAN	LAN	67.213	67.213	LAN	1	6	7
2	05-02-11	James Russell	Clayton Kershaw	CHN	LAN	LAN	65.217	65.217	LAN	2	5	7
3	08-14-2011	Jordan Lyles	Hiroki Kuroda	HOU	LAN	LAN	64.851	64.851	LAN	0	7	7
4	09-15-2011	Ross Ohlendorf	Dana Eveland	PIT	LAN	LAN	64.286	64.286	PIT	6	2	8
5	09-16-2011	Jeff Locke	Hiroki Kuroda	PIT	LAN	LAN	64.093	64.093	LAN	2	7	9
6	05-13-2011	Joe Saunders	Clayton Kershaw	ARI	LAN	LAN	63.303	63.303	LAN	3	4	7
7	08-29-2011	Mat Latos	Clayton Kershaw	SD	LAN	LAN	61.014	61.014	LAN	1	4	5
8	06-20-2011	Brad Penny	Clayton Kershaw	DET	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	0	4	4
9	07-26-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Clayton Kershaw	COL	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	2	3	5
10	09-18-2011	Brad Lincoln	Chad Billingsley	PIT	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	1	15	16
11	06-19-2011	Bud Norris	Hiroki Kuroda	HOU	LAN	LAN	59.267	59.267	LAN	0	1	1
12	09-17-2011	James McDonald	Ted Lilly	PIT	LAN	LAN	59.267	59.267	LAN	1	6	7
13	05-03-11	Ryan Dempster	Chad Billingsley	CHN	LAN	LAN	59.184	59.184	CHN	4	1	5
14	06-17-2011	Brett Myers	Ted Lilly	HOU	LAN	LAN	59.184	59.184	HOU	7	3	10
15	07-07-11	Dillon Gee	Clayton Kershaw	NYN	LAN	LAN	58.763	58.763	LAN	0	6	6
16	08-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	58.763	58.763	LAN	5	8	13
17	04-16-2011	Kyle McClellan	Clayton Kershaw	STL	LAN	LAN	58.42	58.42	STL	9	2	11
18	08-31-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	58.42	58.42	LAN	2	4	6
19	07-27-2011	Aaron Cook	Hiroki Kuroda	COL	LAN	LAN	58.333	58.333	COL	3	1	4
20	08-12-11	Bud Norris	Nathan Eovaldi	HOU	LAN	LAN	57.895	57.895	LAN	0	1	1
21	05-14-2011	Josh Collmenter	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	LAN	57.356	57.356	ARI	1	0	1
22	07-22-2011	John Lannan	Hiroki Kuroda	WAS	LAN	LAN	57.356	57.356	WAS	7	2	9
23	04-03-11	Barry Zito	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	LAN	57.265	57.265	LAN	5	7	12
24	09-25-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	57.173	57.173	LAN	6	2	8
25	04-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	56.897	56.897	SD	5	2	7
26	09-14-2011	Daniel Hudson	Clayton Kershaw	ARI	LAN	LAN	56.803	56.803	LAN	2	3	5
27	04-26-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Chris Volstad	LAN	FLA	LAN	56.616	56.616	FLA	2	4	6
28	06-25-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Hiroki Kuroda	LAA	LAN	LAN	56.616	56.616	LAA	6	1	7
29	08-27-2011	Kevin Millwood	Chad Billingsley	COL	LAN	LAN	56.616	56.616	LAN	6	7	13
30	09-04-11	Clayton Kershaw	Randall Delgado	LAN	ATL	LAN	56.427	56.427	ATL	3	4	7
31	05-01-11	Dustin Moseley	Jon Garland	SD	LAN	LAN	56.14	56.14	SD	7	0	7
32	07-23-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Ted Lilly	WAS	LAN	LAN	56.044	56.044	LAN	6	7	13
33	08-26-2011	Esmil Rogers	Ted Lilly	COL	LAN	LAN	56.044	56.044	LAN	1	6	7
34	04-21-2011	Jair Jurrjens	Clayton Kershaw	ATL	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	3	5	8
35	05-29-2011	Ricky Nolasco	Clayton Kershaw	FLA	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	0	8	8
36	07-24-2011	Jason Marquis	Chad Billingsley	WAS	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	1	3	4
37	07-30-2011	Micah Owings	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	LAN	55.654	55.654	ARI	6	4	10
38	08-01-11	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	55.556	55.556	LAN	6	2	8
39	05-23-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Bud Norris	LAN	HOU	LAN	55.457	55.457	HOU	3	4	7
40	05-17-2011	Randy Wolf	Hiroki Kuroda	MIL	LAN	LAN	55.157	55.157	LAN	0	3	3
41	06-18-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Rubby DeLaRosa	HOU	LAN	LAN	55.157	55.157	HOU	7	0	7
42	05-28-2011	Brian Sanches	Hiroki Kuroda	FLA	LAN	LAN	54.853	54.853	FLA	6	1	7
43	06-14-2011	Johnny Cueto	Clayton Kershaw	CIN	LAN	LAN	54.853	54.853	CIN	3	2	5
44	07-09-11	Aaron Harang	Rubby DeLaRosa	SD	LAN	LAN	54.649	54.649	LAN	0	1	1
45	07-15-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	LAN	54.649	54.649	LAN	6	4	10
46	07-05-11	Mike Pelfrey	Ted Lilly	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.442	54.442	NYN	6	0	6
47	05-24-2011	Chad Billingsley	J.A. Happ	LAN	HOU	LAN	54.442	54.442	LAN	5	4	9
48	07-06-11	John Niese	Hiroki Kuroda	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	NYN	5	3	8
49	07-08-11	Mat Latos	Chad Billingsley	SD	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	LAN	0	1	1
50	05-18-2011	Matt Cain	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	SF	8	5	13
51	07-04-11	Chris Capuano	Rubby DeLaRosa	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.023	54.023	NYN	5	2	7
52	05-09-11	Chad Billingsley	Jeff Karstens	LAN	PIT	LAN	54.023	54.023	PIT	1	4	5
53	05-19-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	54.023	54.023	SF	3	1	4
54	04-29-2011	Clayton Richard	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	LAN	2	3	5
55	05-25-2011	Ted Lilly	Aneury Rodriguez	LAN	HOU	LAN	53.811	53.811	HOU	1	2	3
56	06-15-2011	Travis Wood	Chad Billingsley	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	CIN	7	2	9
57	08-28-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Nathan Eovaldi	COL	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	COL	7	6	13
58	09-20-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	53.596	53.596	LAN	1	2	3
59	04-01-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	53.488	53.488	LAN	3	4	7
60	09-12-11	Joe Saunders	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	ARI	7	2	9
61	06-13-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Hiroki Kuroda	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	CIN	6	4	10
62	07-31-2011	Joe Saunders	Rubby DeLaRosa	ARI	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	ARI	6	3	9
63	05-31-2011	Clay Mortensen	Ted Lilly	COL	LAN	LAN	53.162	53.162	LAN	2	8	10
64	04-14-2011	Jaime Garcia	Hiroki Kuroda	STL	LAN	LAN	52.83	52.83	STL	9	5	14
65	05-04-11	Carlos Zambrano	Ted Lilly	CHN	LAN	LAN	52.719	52.719	CHN	5	1	6
66	08-18-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Marco Estrada	LAN	MIL	LAN	52.719	52.719	LAN	5	1	6
67	04-09-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Dustin Moseley	LAN	SD	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	4	0	4
68	04-15-2011	Kyle LOhse	Jon Garland	STL	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	STL	11	2	13
69	05-27-2011	Javier Vazquez	Jon Garland	FLA	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	3	4	7
70	07-25-2011	Juan Nicasio	Rubby DeLaRosa	COL	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	5	8	13
71	05-30-2011	Jason Hammel	Chad Billingsley	COL	LAN	LAN	52.381	52.381	LAN	1	7	8
72	04-19-2011	Brandon Beachy	Hiroki Kuroda	ATL	LAN	LAN	52.038	52.038	ATL	10	1	11
73	09-05-11	Hiroki Kuroda	John Lannan	LAN	WAS	LAN	51.807	51.807	WAS	2	7	9
74	09-24-2011	Chad Billingsley	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	LAN	51.22	51.22	SD	0	3	3
75	06-26-2011	Jered Weaver	Clayton Kershaw	LAA	LAN	LAN	51.1	51.1	LAN	2	3	5
76	07-10-11	Tim Stauffer	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	50.98	50.98	LAN	1	4	5
77	06-22-2011	Rick Porcello	Ted Lilly	DET	LAN	LAN	50.617	50.617	DET	7	5	12
78	03-31-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	50.495	50.495	LAN	1	2	3
79	09-23-2011	Ted Lilly	Wade LeBlanc	LAN	SD	LAN	50.495	50.495	LAN	2	0	2
80	04-22-2011	Chad Billingsley	Casey Coleman	LAN	CHN	LAN	50.249	50.249	LAN	12	2	14
81	04-02-11	Matt Cain	Ted Lilly	SF	LAN	SF	50	50	SF	10	0	10
82	09-08-11	Chad Billingsley	Chien-Ming Wang	LAN	WAS	WAS	50	50	LAN	7	4	11
83	08-21-2011	Chad Billingsley	Kevin Millwood	LAN	COL	COL	50.249	49.751	COL	3	5	8
84	04-05-11	Clayton Kershaw	Jhoulys Chacin	LAN	COL	COL	50.495	49.505	COL	0	3	3
85	05-11-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Paul Maholm	LAN	PIT	PIT	50.739	49.261	LAN	2	0	2
86	08-19-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	50.86	49.14	LAN	8	2	10
87	08-02-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Mat Latos	LAN	SD	SD	51.1	48.9	LAN	1	0	1
88	08-07-11	Clayton Kershaw	Ian Kennedy	LAN	ARI	ARI	51.22	48.78	ARI	3	4	7
89	04-11-11	Clayton Kershaw	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	51.22	48.78	LAN	6	1	7
90	05-15-2011	Ian Kennedy	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	ARI	51.22	48.78	ARI	4	1	5
91	09-27-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jarrod Parker	LAN	ARI	ARI	51.456	48.544	ARI	6	7	13
92	07-01-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Tyler Chatwood	LAN	LAA	LAA	51.574	48.426	LAN	5	0	5
93	06-28-2011	Ted Lilly	Brian Duensing	LAN	MIN	MIN	51.574	48.426	MIN	4	6	10
94	08-23-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Kyle Lohse	LAN	STL	STL	52.153	47.847	LAN	13	2	15
95	06-21-2011	Max Scherzer	Chad Billingsley	DET	LAN	DET	52.267	47.733	LAN	1	6	7
96	07-29-2011	Josh Collmenter	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	ARI	52.267	47.733	LAN	9	5	14
97	06-27-2011	Chad Billingsley	Nick Blackburn	LAN	MIN	MIN	52.494	47.506	LAN	15	0	15
98	04-06-11	Chad Billingsley	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	52.607	47.393	COL	5	7	12
99	06-01-11	Ubaldo Jimenez	Jon Garland	COL	LAN	COL	52.719	47.281	COL	3	0	3
100	04-08-11	Ted Lilly	Clayton Richard	LAN	SD	SD	52.719	47.281	LAN	4	2	6
101	05-16-2011	Shaun Marcum	Jon Garland	MIL	LAN	MIL	52.719	47.281	MIL	2	1	3
102	06-04-11	Clayton Kershaw	Johnny Cueto	LAN	CIN	CIN	52.941	47.059	LAN	11	8	19
103	09-28-2011	Ted Lilly	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	ARI	52.941	47.059	LAN	7	5	12
104	06-05-11	Chad Billingsley	Travis Wood	LAN	CIN	CIN	53.162	46.838	LAN	9	6	15
105	05-10-11	Ted Lilly	Kevin Correia	LAN	PIT	PIT	53.271	46.729	LAN	10	3	13
106	04-27-2011	Chad Billingsley	Anibal Sanchez	LAN	FLA	FLA	53.38	46.62	LAN	5	4	9
107	09-21-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Dana Eveland	SF	LAN	SF	53.38	46.62	SF	8	5	13
108	09-13-2011	Ian Kennedy	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	ARI	53.596	46.404	ARI	5	4	9
109	05-08-11	Clayton Kershaw	R.A. Dickey	LAN	NYN	NYN	53.704	46.296	LAN	4	2	6
110	08-03-11	Ted Lilly	Tim Stauffer	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	46.189	SD	0	3	3
111	05-06-11	Hiroki Kuroda	John Niese	LAN	NYN	NYN	53.811	46.189	NYN	3	6	9
112	04-10-11	John Ely	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	46.189	SD	2	7	9
113	08-20-2011	Ted Lilly	Esmil Rogers	LAN	COL	COL	53.811	46.189	COL	6	7	13
114	09-09-11	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	54.023	45.977	LAN	2	1	3
115	04-23-2011	Ted Lilly	Ryan Dempster	LAN	CHN	CHN	54.023	45.977	CHN	8	10	18
116	04-24-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Carlos Zambrano	LAN	CHN	CHN	54.023	45.977	LAN	7	3	10
117	09-11-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	54.442	45.558	SF	1	8	9
118	06-09-11	Clayton Kershaw	Juan Nicasio	LAN	COL	COL	54.649	45.351	COL	7	9	16
119	04-17-2011	Chris Carpenter	Chad Billingsley	STL	LAN	STL	54.649	45.351	LAN	1	2	3
120	09-01-11	Dana Eveland	Brad Lincoln	LAN	PIT	PIT	54.751	45.249	LAN	6	4	10
121	08-10-11	Vance Worley	Chad Billingsley	PHI	LAN	PHI	54.853	45.147	PHI	9	8	17
122	07-02-11	Clayton Kershaw	Jered Weaver	LAN	LAA	LAA	55.056	44.944	LAA	1	7	8
123	06-03-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Bronson Arroyo	LAN	CIN	CIN	55.056	44.944	CIN	1	2	3
124	05-07-11	Jon Garland	Chris Young	LAN	NYN	NYN	55.457	44.543	NYN	2	4	6
125	07-18-2011	Chad Billingsley	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	55.457	44.543	SF	0	5	5
126	04-18-2011	Tim Hudson	Ted Lilly	ATL	LAN	ATL	55.654	44.346	LAN	2	4	6
127	07-16-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Ian Kennedy	LAN	ARI	ARI	55.654	44.346	ARI	2	3	5
128	04-20-2011	Derek Lowe	Jon Garland	ATL	LAN	ATL	55.752	44.248	LAN	1	6	7
129	07-20-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	55.85	44.15	LAN	1	0	1
130	09-22-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	SF	55.947	44.053	LAN	2	8	10
131	06-24-2011	Dan Haren	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAA	LAN	LAA	56.044	43.956	LAA	8	3	11
132	05-22-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Edwin Jackson	LAN	CHA	CHA	56.803	43.197	CHA	3	8	11
133	08-05-11	Chad Billingsley	Josh Collmenter	LAN	ARI	ARI	56.989	43.011	LAN	7	4	11
134	04-25-2011	Jon Garland	Ricky Nolasco	LAN	FLA	FLA	57.173	42.827	FLA	4	5	9
135	07-19-2011	Rubby DeLaRosa	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	57.356	42.644	SF	3	5	8
136	06-29-2011	Rubby DeLaRosa	Scott Baker	LAN	MIN	MIN	57.717	42.283	MIN	0	1	1
137	07-03-11	Chad Billingsley	Ervin Santana	LAN	LAA	LAA	57.983	42.017	LAA	1	3	4
138	08-06-11	Nathan Eovaldi	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	ARI	58.333	41.667	LAN	5	3	8
139	09-10-11	Dana Eveland	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	58.333	41.667	LAN	3	0	3
140	04-13-2011	Ted Lilly	Jonathan Sanchez	LAN	SF	SF	58.42	41.58	SF	3	4	7
141	05-20-2011	Ted Lilly	Phil Humber	LAN	CHA	CHA	58.42	41.58	LAN	6	4	10
142	08-24-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jaime Garcia	LAN	STL	STL	58.592	41.408	LAN	9	4	13
143	06-10-11	Chad Billingsley	Jhoulys Chacin	LAN	COL	COL	58.932	41.068	COL	5	6	11
144	09-06-11	Ted Lilly	Stephen Strasburg	LAN	WAS	WAS	59.1	40.9	LAN	7	3	10
145	09-03-11	Nathan Eovaldi	Mike Minor	LAN	ATL	ATL	59.184	40.816	LAN	2	1	3
146	06-11-11	Ted Lilly	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	59.184	40.816	LAN	11	7	18
147	05-21-2011	Jon Garland	Mark Buehrle	LAN	CHA	CHA	59.514	40.486	CHA	2	9	11
148	07-17-2011	Ted Lilly	Daniel Hudson	LAN	ARI	ARI	60.159	39.841	ARI	1	4	5
149	09-02-11	Chad Billingsley	Brandon Beachy	LAN	ATL	ATL	60.861	39.139	LAN	8	6	14
150	08-08-11	Roy Halladay	Hiroki Kuroda	PHI	LAN	PHI	61.014	38.986	PHI	5	3	8
151	08-15-2011	Ted Lilly	Randy Wolf	LAN	MIL	MIL	61.165	38.835	MIL	0	3	3
152	04-12-11	Chad Billingsley	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	62.049	37.951	SF	4	5	9
153	09-26-2011	Dana Eveland	Daniel Hudson	LAN	ARI	ARI	62.049	37.951	LAN	4	2	6
154	08-09-11	Cliff Lee	Ted Lilly	PHI	LAN	PHI	62.477	37.523	PHI	2	1	3
155	08-16-2011	Chad Billingsley	Yovanni Gallardo	LAN	MIL	MIL	62.617	37.383	MIL	1	2	3
156	06-07-11	Rubby DeLaRosa	Roy Oswalt	LAN	PHI	PHI	62.894	37.106	LAN	6	2	8
157	06-08-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Cole Hamels	LAN	PHI	PHI	63.834	36.166	PHI	0	2	2
158	06-06-11	Ted Lilly	Cliff Lee	LAN	PHI	PHI	64.222	35.778	PHI	1	3	4
159	08-22-2011	Nathan Eovaldi	Chris Carpenter	LAN	STL	STL	64.349	35.651	LAN	2	1	3
160	08-17-2011	Nathan Eovaldi	Zach Greinke	LAN	MIL	MIL	65.458	34.542	MIL	1	3	4
161	06-12-11	Rubby DeLaRosa	Ubaldo Jimenez	LAN	COL	COL	65.812	34.188	LAN	10	8	18

Better Than Expected

... Or not enough respect!?

I have taken all the Vegas odds along with empirical 2011 results to tally up which MLB starting pitchers helped their team garner better than expected results. The methodology was to take the win percentage of the games each starting pitcher pitched in, then comparing that to the expected win percentage of those same games based on the win expectancy provided by Vegas odds. If a team was a 60% Vegas favorite to win a game then that pitcher was credited with 0.6 expected wins and 0.4 expected losses. I weighted the difference between actual and expected wins based off of games started. Below are the results...

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Starts	Wins	Losses	Wins(E)	Losses(E)	Win Perc	Exp Win Perc
1	Ian Kennedy	ARI	35	25	10	17.89	17.11	71.43	51.12
2	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	33	23	10	17.83	15.17	69.7	54.03
3	Jason Marquis	WAS	24	16	8	10.90	13.10	66.67	45.43
4	Justin Verlander	DET	37	27	10	22.11	14.89	72.97	59.76
5	Vance Worley	PHI	21	16	5	11.54	9.46	76.19	54.96
6	Rick Porcello	DET	33	21	12	17.03	15.97	63.64	51.6
7	Zach Greinke	MIL	31	22	9	18.03	12.97	70.97	58.17
8	Aaron Harang	SD	28	17	11	13.23	14.77	60.71	47.25
9	Mark Buehrle	CHA	30	19	11	15.23	14.77	63.33	50.78
10	Luke Hochevar	KC	31	18	13	14.24	16.76	58.06	45.92
11	Dillon Gee	NYN	26	16	10	12.30	13.70	61.54	47.31
12	Matt Harrison	TEX	34	22	12	18.38	15.62	64.71	54.06
13	Bruce Chen	KC	25	15	10	11.39	13.61	60	45.55
14	Randy Wolf	MIL	35	21	14	17.76	17.24	60	50.73
15	Jeff Niemann	TB	24	15	9	11.80	12.20	62.5	49.18
16	Javier Vazquez	FLA	32	18	14	14.85	17.15	56.25	46.42
17	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	23	16	7	12.91	10.09	69.57	56.15
18	Justin Masterson	CLE	33	20	13	16.96	16.04	60.61	51.39
19	Roy Halladay	PHI	34	25	9	21.96	12.04	73.53	64.59
20	James Shields	TB	34	21	13	17.98	16.02	61.76	52.87
21	Jeff Karstens	PIT	28	15	13	12.05	15.95	53.57	43.05
22	Kyle Drabek	TOR	13	9	4	6.16	6.84	69.23	47.41
23	Tommy Milone	WAS	5	5	0	2.25	2.75	100	44.95
24	Max Scherzer	DET	36	22	14	19.27	16.73	61.11	53.53
25	Derek Holland	TEX	35	22	13	19.28	15.72	62.86	55.09
26	Andrew Miller	BOS	12	9	3	6.36	5.64	75	52.96
27	Ivan Nova	NYA	29	19	10	16.42	12.58	65.52	56.63
28	Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	10	7	3	4.60	5.41	70	45.95
29	Kevin Correia	PIT	26	14	12	11.72	14.28	53.85	45.07
30	Micah Owings	ARI	4	4	0	1.78	2.22	100	44.55
31	Johnny Cueto	CIN	24	15	9	12.81	11.19	62.5	53.38
32	Jered Weaver	LAA	33	21	12	18.88	14.12	63.64	57.21
33	Josh Beckett	BOS	30	20	10	17.89	12.11	66.67	59.62
34	Mike Minor	ATL	15	10	5	8.02	6.98	66.67	53.47
35	Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	36	22	14	20.15	15.85	61.11	55.98
36	Phil Hughes	NYA	15	10	5	8.22	6.78	66.67	54.81
37	Jake Westbrook	STL	34	19	15	17.22	16.78	55.88	50.66
38	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	33	16	17	14.23	18.77	48.48	43.12
39	C.J. Wilson	TEX	40	24	16	22.27	17.73	60	55.67
40	Jerome Williams	LAA	6	5	1	3.27	2.73	83.33	54.49
41	Tommy Hunter	BAL	11	6	5	4.31	6.69	54.55	39.15
42	Wade Davis	TB	28	16	12	14.32	13.68	57.14	51.15
43	Kevin Millwood	COL	9	6	3	4.33	4.67	66.67	48.11
44	Chris Young	NYN	5	4	1	2.34	2.66	80	46.77
45	Eric Surkamp	SF	5	4	1	2.50	2.50	80	49.91
46	Wade Miley	ARI	7	5	2	3.51	3.49	71.43	50.1
47	Brandon Morrow	TOR	30	17	13	15.54	14.46	56.67	51.8
48	Greg Reynolds	COL	3	3	0	1.58	1.42	100	52.81
49	Joe Saunders	ARI	33	17	16	15.61	17.39	51.52	47.29
50	Ryan Dempster	CHN	34	18	16	16.64	17.36	52.94	48.93
51	Chris Narveson	MIL	28	16	12	14.64	13.36	57.14	52.29
52	Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	6	4	2	2.64	3.36	66.67	44.06
53	Cliff Lee	PHI	33	22	11	20.64	12.36	66.67	62.56
54	Alex White	CLE	10	6	4	4.65	5.36	60	46.45
55	Zach Britton	BAL	27	14	13	12.72	14.28	51.85	47.11
56	Carlos Zambrano	CHN	24	13	11	11.72	12.28	54.17	48.84
57	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	28	16	12	14.73	13.27	57.14	52.6
58	Clay Buchholz	BOS	14	9	5	7.75	6.25	64.29	55.39
59	Brad Peacock	WAS	2	2	0	0.79	1.21	100	39.73
60	Jake Arrieta	BAL	21	11	10	9.81	11.19	52.38	46.7
61	Mike Leake	CIN	26	15	11	13.86	12.14	57.69	53.3
62	Matt Garza	CHN	30	16	14	14.87	15.14	53.33	49.55
63	Edwin Jackson	CHA	35	19	16	17.91	17.09	54.29	51.16
64	Daniel Hudson	ARI	34	19	15	17.91	16.09	55.88	52.67
65	Randall Delgado	ATL	6	4	2	2.92	3.08	66.67	48.62
66	C.C. Sabathia	NYA	34	22	12	20.92	13.08	64.71	61.53
67	Miguel Batista	NYN	4	3	1	1.93	2.07	75	48.14
68	Gio Gonzalez	OAK	32	18	14	16.93	15.07	56.25	52.9
69	Matt Moore	TB	2	2	0	0.95	1.06	100	47.25
70	Luis Mendoza	KC	2	2	0	0.95	1.05	100	47.37
71	John Niese	NYN	26	13	13	11.96	14.04	50	46
72	John Lannan	WAS	33	16	17	14.97	18.03	48.48	45.37
73	Carlos Villanueva	TOR	13	7	6	6.02	6.98	53.85	46.28
74	Ricky Romero	TOR	33	18	15	17.03	15.97	54.55	51.62
75	Ross Detwiler	WAS	11	6	5	5.04	5.96	54.55	45.84
76	Josh Johnson	FLA	9	6	3	5.12	3.88	66.67	56.88
77	Kyle Lohse	STL	33	18	15	17.13	15.87	54.55	51.92
78	Jo-Jo Reyes	TOR	26	12	14	11.14	14.86	46.15	42.83
79	Randy Wells	CHN	23	11	12	10.14	12.86	47.83	44.08
80	Tommy Hanson	ATL	23	14	9	13.17	9.83	60.87	57.27
81	Brad Lincoln	PIT	7	4	3	3.21	3.79	57.14	45.8
82	Jason Vargas	SEA	32	15	17	14.21	17.79	46.88	44.41
83	Anthony Bass	SD	3	2	1	1.28	1.72	66.67	42.77
84	Chien-Ming Wang	WAS	10	5	5	4.30	5.70	50	42.97
85	Matt Palmer	LAA	3	2	1	1.30	1.70	66.67	43.35
86	Dana Eveland	LAN	5	3	2	2.36	2.64	60	47.15
87	Brandon Dickson	STL	1	1	0	0.37	0.63	100	36.83
88	Josh Collmenter	ARI	24	13	11	12.37	11.63	54.17	51.56
89	Dallas Braden	OAK	3	2	1	1.39	1.61	66.67	46.4
90	Aaron Thompson	PIT	1	1	0	0.44	0.56	100	43.57
91	Josh Tomlin	CLE	26	13	13	12.44	13.56	50	47.84
92	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	14	8	6	7.45	6.55	57.14	53.21
93	Brian Gordon	NYA	1	1	0	0.47	0.53	100	46.51
94	Jesse Litsch	TOR	8	4	4	3.48	4.52	50	43.49
95	Kyle McClellan	STL	18	10	8	9.50	8.50	55.56	52.77
96	Juan Nicasio	COL	13	7	6	6.50	6.50	53.85	50.02
97	Everett Teaford	KC	3	2	1	1.51	1.49	66.67	50.3
98	Jarrod Parker	ARI	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
99	Sergio Mitre	MIL	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
100	Dan Runzler	SF	1	1	0	0.52	0.48	100	52.04
101	Alan Johnson	COL	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
102	Matt Beaven	SEA	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
103	Joel Pineiro	LAA	25	13	12	12.55	12.46	52	50.18
104	Graham Godfrey	OAK	4	2	2	1.56	2.44	50	39.07
105	Brian Burres	PIT	1	1	0	0.57	0.43	100	56.99
106	Andrew Cashner	CHN	1	1	0	0.58	0.42	100	57.63
107	James McDonald	PIT	32	15	17	14.59	17.41	46.88	45.58
108	Chris Jakubauskas	BAL	6	3	3	2.58	3.42	50	43.08
109	Dylan Axelrod	CHA	3	2	1	1.60	1.40	66.67	53.18
110	Vin Mazzaro	KC	4	2	2	1.60	2.40	50	39.92
111	Freddy Garcia	NYA	27	15	12	14.63	12.37	55.56	54.17
112	Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	26	13	13	12.64	13.36	50	48.61
113	Henderson Alvarez	TOR	10	5	5	4.65	5.35	50	46.54
114	Rick VandenHurk	BAL	2	1	1	0.68	1.32	50	33.94
115	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	30	16	14	15.71	14.29	53.33	52.36
116	Ross Ohlendorf	PIT	9	4	5	3.74	5.26	44.44	41.58
117	Barry Zito	SF	8	4	4	3.78	4.22	50	47.3
118	Chris Capuano	NYN	31	15	16	14.79	16.21	48.39	47.7
119	Nathan Adcock	KC	2	1	1	0.79	1.21	50	39.47
120	Luis Perez	TOR	4	2	2	1.83	2.17	50	45.82
121	Drew Pomeranz	COL	4	2	2	1.86	2.14	50	46.58
122	Brian Duensing	MIN	27	12	15	11.90	15.10	44.44	44.08
123	Esmil Rogers	COL	13	6	7	5.90	7.10	46.15	45.42
124	Dave Bush	TEX	2	1	1	0.91	1.09	50	45.43
125	Jorge de la Rosa	COL	9	5	4	4.92	4.08	55.56	54.64
126	Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	21	10	11	9.94	11.06	47.62	47.34
127	Brian Sanches	FLA	2	1	1	0.95	1.05	50	47.45
128	Alexi Ogando	TEX	30	17	13	16.97	13.04	56.67	56.55
129	Anthony Swarzak	MIN	11	5	6	4.97	6.03	45.45	45.17
130	Chad Reineke	CIN	2	1	1	1.01	0.99	50	50.59
131	Wade LeBlanc	SD	14	6	8	6.02	7.98	42.86	43.01
132	Cory Luebke	SD	17	8	9	8.03	8.97	47.06	47.23
133	Scott Feldman	TEX	2	1	1	1.03	0.97	50	51.48
134	Marco Estrada	MIL	6	3	3	3.03	2.97	50	50.52
135	Brad Mills	TOR	4	2	2	2.05	1.95	50	51.16
136	Lance Lynn	STL	2	1	1	1.06	0.94	50	52.82
137	Alfredo Simon	BAL	15	6	9	6.06	8.94	40	40.4
138	Cole Hamels	PHI	32	19	13	19.06	12.94	59.38	59.57
139	Zach Duke	ARI	9	4	5	4.06	4.94	44.44	45.14
140	Mitch Talbot	CLE	12	5	7	5.07	6.93	41.67	42.21
141	Bartolo Colon	NYA	26	14	12	14.09	11.91	53.85	54.19
142	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	7	4	3	4.17	2.83	57.14	59.52
143	Chris Tillman	BAL	14	6	8	6.17	7.83	42.86	44.07
144	Felix Hernandez	SEA	33	17	16	17.27	15.73	51.52	52.33
145	Mitch Atkins	BAL	3	1	2	1.28	1.72	33.33	42.69
146	Brad Penny	DET	31	15	16	15.30	15.70	48.39	49.35
147	Charlie Morton	PIT	28	12	16	12.30	15.70	42.86	43.94
148	Matt Cain	SF	34	18	16	18.32	15.68	52.94	53.87
149	Dan Haren	LAA	33	18	15	18.34	14.66	54.55	55.57
150	D.J. Carrasco	NYN	1	0	1	0.36	0.64	0	36.1
151	Tim Wakefield	BOS	23	12	11	12.37	10.63	52.17	53.8
152	Elih Villanueva	FLA	1	0	1	0.40	0.60	0	39.76
153	Jay Buente	FLA	1	0	1	0.42	0.58	0	42.46
154	Joe Blanton	PHI	9	4	5	4.43	4.57	44.44	49.2
155	Jake Peavy	CHA	18	9	9	9.43	8.57	50	52.41
156	Nick Blackburn	MIN	26	11	15	11.45	14.55	42.31	44.03
157	Dustin McGowan	TOR	3	1	2	1.45	1.55	33.33	48.47
158	John Ely	LAN	1	0	1	0.46	0.54	0	46.19
159	Felipe Paulino	KC	21	9	12	9.46	11.54	42.86	45.06
160	Alex Cobb	TB	9	4	5	4.47	4.53	44.44	49.67
161	Homer Bailey	CIN	22	11	11	11.47	10.53	50	52.14
162	Armando Galarraga	ARI	8	3	5	3.48	4.52	37.5	43.52
163	Carl Pavano	MIN	33	14	19	14.48	18.52	42.42	43.88
164	Sean O'Sullivan	KC	10	4	6	4.49	5.51	40	44.87
165	Scott Kazmir	LAA	1	0	1	0.49	0.51	0	48.78
166	Tyson Ross	OAK	7	3	4	3.49	3.51	42.86	49.89
167	Julio Teheran	ATL	3	1	2	1.50	1.50	33.33	49.94
168	Clay Hensley	FLA	8	3	5	3.51	4.49	37.5	43.88
169	Jeff Locke	PIT	4	1	3	1.51	2.49	25	37.87
170	Doug Fister	SEA	33	15	18	15.52	17.48	45.45	47.02
171	Ervin Santana	LAA	34	17	17	17.52	16.48	50	51.54
172	Sam LeCure	CIN	5	2	3	2.54	2.46	40	50.8
173	Brandon McCarthy	OAK	24	11	13	11.56	12.44	45.83	48.17
174	Alex Sanabia	FLA	2	0	2	0.59	1.41	0	29.27
175	Tim Hudson	ATL	33	18	15	18.60	14.40	54.55	56.35
176	Jaime Garcia	STL	37	20	17	20.61	16.39	54.05	55.69
177	Madison Bumgarner	SF	33	17	16	17.62	15.38	51.52	53.38
178	Erik Bedard	SEA	24	12	12	12.62	11.38	50	52.57
179	Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	17	7	10	7.66	9.34	41.18	45.04
180	Yunesky Maya	WAS	4	1	3	1.66	2.34	25	41.59
181	Bud Norris	HOU	31	13	18	13.68	17.32	41.94	44.14
182	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAN	10	4	6	4.70	5.30	40	46.99
183	Liam Hendriks	MIN	4	1	3	1.73	2.27	25	43.3
184	R.A. Dickey	NYN	32	15	17	15.74	16.26	46.88	49.19
185	Jonathan Sanchez	SF	19	9	10	9.74	9.26	47.37	51.28
186	Charles Furbush	SEA	10	3	7	3.76	6.24	30	37.57
187	Brett Myers	HOU	33	13	20	13.76	19.24	39.39	41.69
188	Henry Sosa	HOU	9	3	6	3.78	5.22	33.33	42.05
189	Francisco Liriano	MIN	24	11	13	11.79	12.21	45.83	49.12
190	Trevor Cahill	OAK	33	15	18	15.79	17.21	45.45	47.85
191	Chad Billingsley	LAN	32	15	17	15.80	16.20	46.88	49.37
192	Lucas Harrell	HOU	2	0	2	0.84	1.16	0	41.92
193	Andy Sonnanstine	TB	4	1	3	1.84	2.16	25	46.03
194	Clay Mortensen	COL	6	2	4	2.84	3.16	33.33	47.39
195	Brett Anderson	OAK	13	6	7	6.87	6.13	46.15	52.82
196	Ramon Ortiz	CHN	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	44.83
197	Andrew Oliver	DET	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	45.13
198	Blake Beavan	SEA	14	5	9	5.90	8.10	35.71	42.17
199	Hector Noesi	NYA	2	0	2	0.91	1.09	0	45.32
200	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	32	15	17	15.92	16.08	46.88	49.74
201	Colby Lewis	TEX	35	18	17	18.92	16.08	51.43	54.07
202	Charlie Furbush	DET	2	0	2	0.93	1.07	0	46.73
203	Scott Baker	MIN	21	9	12	9.95	11.05	42.86	47.37
204	Zachary McAllister	CLE	4	1	3	1.96	2.04	25	48.96
205	Ted Lilly	LAN	33	15	18	15.97	17.03	45.45	48.39
206	Neslon Figueroa	HOU	5	1	4	1.99	3.01	20	39.8
207	Chris Volstad	FLA	29	12	17	12.99	16.01	41.38	44.81
208	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	5	2	3	3.00	2.00	40	60.08
209	A.J. Burnett	NYA	32	17	15	18.01	13.99	53.13	56.27
210	Rich Harden	OAK	16	6	10	7.04	8.96	37.5	43.99
211	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	21	9	12	10.05	10.95	42.86	47.86
212	John Lackey	BOS	28	14	14	15.05	12.95	50	53.76
213	Garrett Richards	LAA	3	0	3	1.10	1.90	0	36.69
214	Tyler Chatwood	LAA	24	10	14	11.13	12.87	41.67	46.37
215	Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	33	14	19	15.13	17.87	42.42	45.85
216	Brad Hand	FLA	12	4	8	5.19	6.81	33.33	43.21
217	Jacob Turner	DET	2	0	2	1.20	0.80	0	60.06
218	Barry Enright	ARI	7	2	5	3.21	3.79	28.57	45.88
219	Travis Wood	CIN	16	7	9	8.21	7.79	43.75	51.34
220	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	4	1	3	2.22	1.78	25	55.59
221	Tim Stauffer	SD	31	13	18	14.38	16.62	41.94	46.38
222	Duane Below	DET	3	0	3	1.42	1.58	0	47.48
223	Mat Latos	SD	31	14	17	15.47	15.53	45.16	49.9
224	Aneury Rodriguez	HOU	6	1	5	2.51	3.49	16.67	41.88
225	Jason Hammel	COL	27	12	15	13.55	13.45	44.44	50.19
226	Anthony Vasquez	SEA	7	1	6	2.62	4.38	14.29	37.36
227	Phil Humber	CHA	26	11	15	12.66	13.34	42.31	48.71
228	Kyle Davies	KC	14	4	10	5.67	8.33	28.57	40.49
229	Kyle Weiland	BOS	5	1	4	2.67	2.33	20	53.44
230	David Price	TB	35	18	17	19.70	15.30	51.43	56.28
231	Derek Lowe	ATL	34	16	18	17.72	16.28	47.06	52.12
232	Chris Schwinden	NYN	4	0	4	1.76	2.24	0	44.07
233	Chris Carpenter	STL	39	20	19	21.79	17.21	51.28	55.86
234	Scott Diamond	MIN	7	1	6	2.80	4.20	14.29	40.03
235	John Danks	CHA	27	12	15	13.90	13.10	44.44	51.49
236	Michael Pineda	SEA	28	12	16	13.96	14.04	42.86	49.87
237	David Huff	CLE	9	2	7	3.97	5.03	22.22	44.06
238	Gavin Floyd	CHA	31	14	17	15.99	15.01	45.16	51.59
239	Tom Gorzelanny	WAS	15	5	10	7.01	7.99	33.33	46.76
240	James Russell	CHN	5	0	5	2.08	2.92	0	41.56
241	Fausto Carmona	CLE	32	13	19	15.13	16.87	40.63	47.27
242	Ricky Nolasco	FLA	33	14	19	16.18	16.82	42.42	49.04
243	Edinson Volquez	CIN	20	8	12	10.20	9.80	40	50.99
244	Josh Outman	OAK	9	2	7	4.20	4.80	22.22	46.65
245	Clayton Richard	SD	18	6	12	8.26	9.74	33.33	45.89
246	Jon Garland	LAN	9	2	7	4.28	4.72	22.22	47.53
247	Anibal Sanchez	FLA	33	14	19	16.33	16.67	42.42	49.49
248	Hiroki Kuroda	LAN	32	14	18	16.36	15.64	43.75	51.12
249	Zach Stewart	TOR	11	3	8	5.36	5.64	27.27	48.74
250	Shaun Marcum	MIL	36	17	19	19.47	16.53	47.22	54.08
251	Tim Lincecum	SF	34	17	17	19.60	14.40	50	57.64
252	Mike Pelfrey	NYN	33	12	21	14.61	18.39	36.36	44.27
253	Brett Cecil	TOR	21	7	14	9.72	11.28	33.33	46.28
254	Danny Duffy	KC	19	5	14	7.73	11.27	26.32	40.67
255	Phil Coke	DET	14	4	10	6.78	7.22	28.57	48.4
256	Livan Hernandez	WAS	29	10	19	12.78	16.22	34.48	44.06
257	Doug Davis	CHN	9	1	8	3.81	5.19	11.11	42.3
258	Aaron Cook	COL	17	5	12	8.00	9.00	29.41	47.07
259	Jordan Lyles	HOU	15	3	12	6.01	8.99	20	40.07
260	Casey Coleman	CHN	17	4	13	7.02	9.98	23.53	41.27
261	Jon Lester	BOS	31	16	15	19.07	11.93	51.61	61.52
262	Brad Bergesen	BAL	12	2	10	5.10	6.90	16.67	42.53
263	Kevin Slowey	MIN	8	0	8	3.44	4.56	0	43.06
264	Dontrelle Willis	CIN	15	4	11	7.50	7.50	26.67	50.03
265	Brandon Beachy	ATL	25	10	15	13.60	11.40	40	54.39
266	Roy Oswalt	PHI	24	10	14	13.65	10.35	41.67	56.88
267	Brian Matusz	BAL	11	1	10	4.80	6.20	9.09	43.63
268	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	30	12	18	15.94	14.06	40	53.14
269	Dustin Moseley	SD	20	5	15	9.03	10.97	25	45.15
270	Jeff Francis	KC	31	10	21	14.10	16.90	32.26	45.48
271	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	32	13	19	17.46	14.54	40.63	54.55
272	J.A. Happ	HOU	28	7	21	11.85	16.15	25	42.31
273	Paul Maholm	PIT	26	7	19	12.01	13.99	26.92	46.18

World Series Game #6 Simulation

Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	53.38%	58.48%	STL 10-9

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World Series Game #5

Winner Take All? ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	C.Carpenter vs C.Wilson	Rangers	54.02%	56.28%	TEX 4-2

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World Series Game #4 Simulation

Pujols Dominates ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	E.Jackson vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.57%	56.72%	TEX 4-0

Game Notes: Last nights crazy 16-7 game was the 302nd most likely final score in the simulation. The run total line in Vegas opened at 9.8 runs (9.5 O -120) and overnight jumped to 10.3 runs (10 O -120) which is almost unheard of. Could it be a psychological over-reaction to last nights slugfest? The run total line of 10.3 runs is the tied for 19th highest run total line of any game so far this season. Two Derek Holland pitched games are on the list ahead of this one. They were home games against the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros. The Marlins pitcher was Brad Hand (#2 Rank, Vegas 10.8 runs, Actual runs 14) and the Astros pitcher was J.A. Happ (#14 Rank, Vegas 10.4 runs, Actual runs 11). What does tonight have in store?

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World Series Game #3 Simulation

All Tied Up ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	K.Lohse vs M.Harrison	Rangers	63.90%	58.73%	STL 16-7

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