Saturday, October 22, 2011

World Series Game #4 Simulation

Pujols Dominates ...

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Cardinals Rangers E.Jackson vs D.Holland Rangers 63.57% 56.72% TEX 4-0

Game Notes: Last nights crazy 16-7 game was the 302nd most likely final score in the simulation. The run total line in Vegas opened at 9.8 runs (9.5 O -120) and overnight jumped to 10.3 runs (10 O -120) which is almost unheard of. Could it be a psychological over-reaction to last nights slugfest? The run total line of 10.3 runs is the tied for 19th highest run total line of any game so far this season. Two Derek Holland pitched games are on the list ahead of this one. They were home games against the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros. The Marlins pitcher was Brad Hand (#2 Rank, Vegas 10.8 runs, Actual runs 14) and the Astros pitcher was J.A. Happ (#14 Rank, Vegas 10.4 runs, Actual runs 11). What does tonight have in store?

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