Dodger Sims: May 2012

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Brewers vs Dodgers - May 31st Simulation Results

Here is a peak into some of the output capabilities of my simulator. This is the box score output from today's (5/31) Brewers vs Dodgers game. This simulation was done a couple of hours before the lineups were known, but it shouldn't make too big of a difference.

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Zach Greinke	6.599	6.958	1.687	6.336	0.271	103.43	2.393
John Axford	0.487	0.625	0.156	0.395	0.014	7.741	1.965
Francisco Rodriguez	0.423	0.419	0.152	0.414	0.023	6.837	3.015
Jose Veras	0.567	0.575	0.243	0.552	0.029	9.379	3.127
Kameron Loe	0.244	0.190	0.072	0.260	0.014	3.845	3.26
Manny Parra	0.176	0.177	0.065	0.170	0.009	2.852	2.961
Tim Dillard	0.301	0.244	0.106	0.323	0.020	4.852	3.488
Wily Peralta	0.097	0.072	0.041	0.108	0.007	1.602	3.970

Chad Billingsley	6.543	5.930	1.444	6.670	0.476	101.041	2.995
Kenley Jansen	0.446	0.800	0.115	0.263	0.027	7.002	1.183
Josh Lindblom	0.444	0.506	0.117	0.405	0.040	6.970	2.871
Javy Guerra	0.617	0.620	0.214	0.581	0.029	9.868	2.834
Scott Elbert	0.261	0.301	0.073	0.235	0.022	4.117	2.835
Ronald Belisario	0.136	0.131	0.052	0.131	0.009	2.198	3.252
Todd Coffey	0.582	0.573	0.202	0.565	0.041	9.346	3.182
Jamey Wright	0.305	0.335	0.119	0.286	0.021	4.991	3.078

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Corey Hart	4.407	1.177	0.740	0.288	0.010	0.139	0.385	0.286	1.145	0.323
Norichika Aoki	4.254	1.149	0.796	0.24	0.021	0.092	0.351	0.329	0.883	0.319
Ryan Braun	4.220	1.268	0.860	0.242	0.014	0.152	0.536	0.275	0.948	0.354
Aramis Ramirez	4.158	1.118	0.732	0.290	0.011	0.085	0.453	0.239	0.785	0.312
George Kottaras	3.987	0.977	0.723	0.222	0.005	0.027	0.303	0.342	0.838	0.285
Ricky Weeks	3.892	0.954	0.637	0.229	0.015	0.073	0.380	0.290	1.131	0.295
Cody Ransom	3.901	0.925	0.658	0.213	0.015	0.038	0.328	0.174	0.968	0.265
Nyjer Morgan	3.704	1.091	0.789	0.235	0.019	0.048	0.364	0.279	0.711	0.333
Pitchers Spot	3.747	0.475	0.389	0.076	0.002	0.009	0.157	0.122	1.786	0.143

Tony Gwynn	4.248	1.118	0.764	0.257	0.066	0.031	0.271	0.281	0.901	0.303
Bobby Abreu	3.939	1.054	0.710	0.259	0.015	0.070	0.345	0.454	1.048	0.329
Andre Ethier	3.957	1.091	0.710	0.276	0.012	0.094	0.424	0.389	1.03	0.337
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3.998	0.981	0.691	0.235	0.011	0.044	0.342	0.212	0.936	0.311
James Loney	3.785	1.067	0.711	0.285	0.009	0.063	0.406	0.356	0.731	0.334
A.J. Ellis	3.721	0.922	0.693	0.192	0.009	0.028	0.318	0.271	0.983	0.282
Elian Herrera	3.676	0.967	0.664	0.247	0.029	0.027	0.306	0.216	0.870	0.297
Dee Gordon	3.575	0.968	0.687	0.229	0.029	0.023	0.352	0.217	0.750	0.303
Pitchers Spot	3.556	0.389	0.316	0.063	0.003	0.007	0.161	0.127	2.009	0.128

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

May 31st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
DET	BOS	Max Scherzer vs Josh Beckett	BOS	57.17%	52.62%	---
MIL	LAN	Zach Greinke vs Chad Billingsley	MIL	53.16%	51.06%	---
HOU	COL	Bud Norris vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	52.94%	57.06%	---

Wednesday's Results: -0.6 units
Current ROI: 5.47%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

May 30th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

			Vegas	Win Probability
Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas	Simulator	Units Bet
CHA	TB	Jose Quintana vs Alex Cobb	TB	58.07%	55.66%	CHA, 0.3
DET	BOS	Drew Smyly vs Jon Lester	BOS	57.89%	52.94%	DET, 0.8
KC	CLE	Bruce Chen vs Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	54.02%	49.63%	KC, 0.7
MIL	LAN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	59.76%	58.41%	---
NYA	LAA	Ivan Nova vs Ervin Santana	LAA	52.04%	49.01%	NYA, 0.5
SEA	TEX	Blake Beavan vs Derek Holland	TEX	69.70%	73.59%	TEX, 1.4
STL	ATL	Kyle Lohse vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	56.42%	ATL, 0.6
WAS	FLA	ChienMing Wang vs Josh Johnson	FLA	61.83%	61.59%	---
OAK	MIN	Tyson Ross vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	52.49%	57.24%	MIN, 0.9
SD	CHN	Anthony Bass vs Ryan Dempster	CHN	55.85%	56.33%	---
CIN	PIT	Johnny Cueto vs A.J. Burnett	CIN	54.85%	51.69%	PIT, 0.5
BAL	TOR	Jason Hammel vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	56.62%	50.00%	BAL, 0.9
PHI	NYN	Cliff Lee vs Dillon Gee	PHI	56.62%	54.76%	NYN, 0.3
HOU	COL	Lucas Harrell vs Chris Friedrich	COL	59.10%	62.58%	COL, 0.7
ARI	SF	Ian Kennedy vs Tim Lincecum	SF	54.65%	64.55%	SF, 1.4

Tuesday's Results: +5.6 units
Current ROI: 5.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Monday, May 28, 2012

May 29th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Units
CHA	TB	Phil Humber vs James Shields	TB	60.55%	57.24%	1.0
DET	BOS	Justin Verlander vs Daniel Bard	DET	59.60%	56.25%	1.0
KC	CLE	Wil Smith vs Justin Masterson	CLE	59.60%	55.81%	1.1
MIL	LAN	Michael Fiers vs Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	52.94%	56.08%	1.1
NYA	LAA	Andy Pettitte vs Dan Haren	LAA	55.85%	53.84%	0.5
SEA	TEX	Jason Vargas vs Scott Feldman	TEX	64.85%	65.77%	0.3
STL	ATL	Jake Westbrook vs Randall Delgado	STL	51.10%	48.50%	0.8
SD	CHN	Eric Stults vs Jeff Samardzija	CHN	60.24%	59.77%	0.9
CIN	PIT	Homer Bailey vs Charlie Morton	CIN	53.60%	56.22%	---
BAL	TOR	Jake Arrieta vs Ricky Romero	TOR	57.36%	52.18%	1.7
PHI	NYN	Joe Blanton vs Jeremy Hefner	PHI	51.10%	50.28%	---
WAS	FLA	Edwin Jackson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	57.36%	59.46%	0.8
OAK	MIN	Jarrod Parker vs Cole DeVries	OAK	50.74%	48.64%	0.3
ARI	SF	Joe Saunders vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	54.02%	60.64%	2.7

Current ROI: 4.65%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Sunday, May 27, 2012

May 27th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	CHA	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	56.86%	TBD
COL	CIN	Jamie Moyer vs Mat Latos	CIN	TBD	61.78%	TBD
HOU	LAN	J.A. Happ vs Chris Capuano	LAN	TBD	61.06%	TBD
TB	BOS	Jeremy Hellickson vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	TBD	52.96%	TBD
TOR	TEX	Kyle Drabek vs Yu Darvish	TEX	TBD	69.39%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Gio Gonzalez vs Brandon Beachy	WAS	TBD	50.68%	TBD
SD	NYN	Edinson Volquez vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	TBD	54.01%	TBD
SF	FLA	Matt Cain vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	TBD	50.68%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Matt Garza vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	56.35%	TBD
KC	BAL	Luke Hochevar vs Brian Matusz	BAL	TBD	56.48%	TBD
DET	MIN	Rick Porcello vs P.J. Walters	DET	TBD	52.03%	TBD
PHI	STL	Roy Halladay vs Adam Wainwright	STL	TBD	51.21%	TBD
NYA	OAK	Hiroki Kuroda vs Tom Milone	NYA	TBD	50.68%	TBD
LAA	SEA	C.J. Wilson vs Hector Noesi	LAA	TBD	59.15%	TBD
MIL	ARI	Randy Wolf vs Daniel Hudson	ARI	TBD	54.49%	TBD

Current ROI: 4.65%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Has Clayton Kershaw Been Unlucky?

There has been some online discussion about Clayton Kershaw being unlucky in the sense that the opposing starting pitchers he has faced have pitched really well. Much better than opposing pitchers have done against other Dodgers starting pitchers.

Eric Stephen at True Blue LA pointed out in his article (linked in previous paragraph) that Kershaw's opposing starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 and have pitched a Quality Start in 7 of 9 games, while opposing pitchers facing any other Dodgers starter have only gotten quality starts in 17 of 35 games.

This got me interested in digging a little deeper from a different perspective at this research. What I would like to do is account for the talent level of the opposing pitchers Kershaw has faced (in the 2012 season). Maybe Kershaw has faced better pitchers on average than the rest of the Dodgers staff. What I did is looked at the Vegas odds and expected run totals of all games that Clayton Kershaw pitched in. From this I can compute how many runs the Dodgers and their opponents were expected to score in games that Kershaw started in. This also adds bullpens in to the mix, which I will get to a little later. Here is what I've found.

Number of Kershaw starts: 10
Dodgers runs scored in games Kershaw starts: 36
Dodgers opponents runs scored in games Kershaw starts: 25
Dodgers record in games Kershaw starts: 7-3, 0.700
Dodgers pythagorean in games Kershaw starts: 0.675

Now some Vegas numbers...

Dodgers expected runs in games Kershaw started: 36.5
Dodgers opponents expected runs in games Kershaw started: 27.4
Dodgers expected record in games Kershaw started: 6.4-3.6, 0.640

So the Dodgers have actually done a little better according to Vegas compared to what they've actually done (won 0.6 more games than expected). But what about those opposing pitchers. You would expect to see the Dodgers actual runs scored to be much lower than the Vegas expected runs scored. But what we see is that the Dodgers have only scored a half a run less than what was expected. On the otherhand, the Dodgers have given up 2.4 more runs than expected in Kershaw starts. So the problem, if there is one... is that the Dodgers are giving up too many runs in Kershaw starts. That could be from Kershaw himself, the bullpen or the defense. So it doesn't really appear that the Dodgers are scoring a significantly less amount of runs than expected in games that Kershaw starts. Whether that be off of the opposing starting pitcher or the opposing bullpen.

The next step here would be to repeat this study for the games in which Kershaw did not start.

For reference here is how the Dodgers bullpen has done in games that Kershaw has started:

Date	Start #	Opp	IP	H	ER	R	SO	BB	HR	ERA	FIP
4/5/2012	1	@ SD	6	3	3	3	4	2	1	4.50	5.03
4/10/2012	2	vs PIT	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	0.00	0.20
4/15/2012	3	vs SD	3.67	2	0	0	2	3	0	0.00	4.56
4/21/2012	4	@ HOU	2	1	1	1	1	3	0	4.50	6.70
4/27/2012	5	vs WAS	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.20
5/2/2012	6	@ COL	1	2	3	3	2	3	1	27.00	21.20
5/8/2012	7	vs SF	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.20
5/14/2012	8	vs ARI	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	4.50	8.70
5/19/2012	9	vs STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00
5/25/2012	10	vs HOU	2	2	0	0	2	3	0	0.00	5.70
Total			20.67	13	8	8	16	14	3	3.48	5.57

Saturday, May 26, 2012

May 26th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	CHA	Derek Lowe vs Jake Peavy	CHA	61.09%	57.69%	TBD
COL	CIN	Jeremy Guthrie vs Mike Leake	CIN	57.26%	55.57%	TBD
HOU	LAN	Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	52.61%	56.58%	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs Josh Beckett	BOS	51.92%	50.54%	TBD
TOR	TEX	Henderson Alvarez vs Colby Lewis	TEX	61.98%	65.33%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Stephen Strasburg vs Mike Minor	WAS	52.38%	53.03%	TBD
DET	MIN	Max Scherzer vs Carl Pavano	DET	56.71%	50.91%	TBD
NYA	OAK	C.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	61.69%	58.00%	TBD
KC	BAL	Felipe Paulino vs Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	52.83%	57.06%	TBD
SD	NYN	Clayton Richard vs Johan Santana	NYN	60.00%	61.15%	TBD
SF	FLA	Madison Bumgarner vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	51.92%	54.05%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Jerome Williams vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	55.75%	54.97%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Paul Maholm vs Kevin Correia	PIT	53.27%	54.13%	TBD
PHI	STL	Kyle Kendrick vs Jaime Garcia	STL	60.00%	63.75%	TBD
MIL	ARI	Zach Greinke vs Wade Miley	MIL	52.61%	65.07%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Thursday, May 24, 2012

May 25th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	CHA	Jeanmar Gomez vs Jose Quintana	CLE	51.81%	51.76%	TBD
COL	CIN	Chris Friedrich vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	60.86%	61.40%	TBD
HOU	LAN	Lucas Harrell vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	68.25%	64.99%	TBD
TB	BOS	Alex Cobb vs Jon Lester	BOS	59.60%	59.75%	TBD
TOR	TEX	Brandon Morrow vs Derek Holland	TEX	56.62%	60.56%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Ross Detwiler vs Tim Hudson	ATL	60.55%	55.98%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Ryan Dempster vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	53.16%	53.22%	TBD
KC	BAL	Bruce Chen vs Jason Hammel	BAL	56.80%	59.49%	TBD
SD	NYN	Anthony Bass vs Dillon Gee	NYN	53.16%	51.37%	TBD
SF	FLA	Tim Lincecum vs Josh Johnson	FLA	57.54%	56.11%	TBD
DET	MIN	Drew Smyly vs Anthony Swarzak	DET	56.80%	51.86%	TBD
PHI	STL	Cliff Lee vs Kyle Lohse	PHI	53.16%	44.36%	TBD
MIL	ARI	Yovanni Gallardo vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	54.44%	46.48%	TBD
NYA	OAK	Ivan Nova vs Tyson Ross	NYA	57.36%	52.76%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Ervin Santana vs Blake Beavan	LAA	54.65%	52.41%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.62%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

May 24th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	CIN	Randall Delgado vs Homer Bailey	CIN	52.27%	53.55%	TBD
DET	CLE	Justin Verlander vs Justin Masterson	DET	60.40%	52.21%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Cole DeVries vs Phil Humber	CHA	58.59%	56.50%	TBD
SD	NYN	Eric Stults vs Jeremy Hefner	NYN	54.44%	50.80%	TBD
SF	FLA	Ryan Vogelsong vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	60.55%	59.81%	TBD
PHI	STL	Joe Blanton vs Jake Westbrook	STL	59.27%	56.66%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Dan Haren vs Jason Vargas	LAA	52.04%	57.67%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

May 23rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	CIN	Tommy Hanson vs Bronson Arroyo	ATL	53.81%	53.72%	TBD
BOS	BAL	Daniel Bard vs Jake Arrieta	BOS	52.04%	42.73%	TBD
DET	CLE	Doug Fister vs Zach McAllister	DET	52.94%	51.21%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Scott Diamond vs Chris Sale	CHA	59.92%	58.74%	TBD
TOR	TB	Ricky Romero vs James Shields	TB	53.38%	53.74%	TBD
NYN	PIT	John Niese vs Charlie Morton	PIT	51.57%	46.32%	TBD
SF	MIL	Barry Zito vs Marco Estrada	MIL	55.26%	57.19%	TBD
LAA	OAK	Jered Weaver vs Jarrod Parker	LAA	59.76%	55.55%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Ted Lilly vs Joe Saunders	ARI	50.74%	52.64%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Scott Feldman vs Kevin Millwood	TEX	59.43%	58.05%	TBD
KC	NYA	Wil Smith vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	Offline	63.13%	TBD
WAS	PHI	Edwin Jackson vs Cole Hamels	PHI	59.92%	59.77%	TBD
COL	FLA	Alex White vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	58.93%	52.54%	TBD
CHN	HOU	Jeff Samardzija vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	54.85%	55.35%	TBD
SD	STL	Jeff Suppan vs Lance Lynn	STL	66.89%	64.57%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 21, 2012

May 22nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	CIN	Brandon Beachy vs Mat Latos	ATL	52.94%	52.49%	TBD
DET	CLE	Rick Porcello vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	52.27%	55.24%	TBD
MIN	CHA	P.J. Walters vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	62.19%	58.23%	TBD
TOR	TB	Drew Hutchison vs Matt Moore	TB	55.85%	53.14%	TBD
BOS	BAL	Felix Doubront vs Brian Matusz	BOS	54.23%	42.79%	TBD
KC	NYA	Luke Hochevar vs Phil Hughes	NYA	63.17%	56.14%	TBD
NYN	PIT	R.A. Dickey vs James McDonald	PIT	55.06%	52.15%	TBD
WAS	PHI	Jordan Zimmerman vs Roy Halladay	PHI	59.10%	60.63%	TBD
COL	FLA	Juan Nicasio vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	55.26%	NA	TBD
CHN	HOU	Travis Wood vs J.A. Happ	HOU	54,44%	52.81%	TBD
SF	MIL	Matt Cain vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	50.25%	53.57%	TBD
SD	STL	Edinson Volquez vs Adam Wainwright	STL	60.40%	56.07%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Aaron Harang vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	57.72%	48.63%	TBD
LAA	OAK	C.J. Wilson vs Graham Godfrey	LAA	60.24%	56.18%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Matt Harrison vs Hector Noesi	TEX	61.94%	63.66%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

May 21st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	CIN	Mike Minor vs Homer Bailey	CIN	51.57%	54.23%	TBD
TOR	TB	Kyle Drabek vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	58.76%	55.71%	TBD
BOS	BAL	Clay Buchholz vs Tommy Hunter	BOS	52.72%	42.73%	TBD
KC	NYA	Felipe Paulino vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	61.83%	60.65%	TBD
NYN	PIT	Johan Santana vs Erik Bedard	PIT	50.74%	55.75%	TBD
WAS	PHI	Gio Gonzalez vs Kyle Kendrick	WAS	53.16%	51.62%	TBD
COL	FLA	Jamie Moyer vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	61.54%	NA	TBD
CHN	HOU	Matt Garza vs Bud Norris	HOU	50.62%	49.48%	TBD
SF	MIL	Madison Bumgarner vs Randy Wolf	SF	50.62%	44.71%	TBD
SD	STL	Clayton Richard vs Jaime Garcia	STL	63.57%	64.66%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Chris Capuano vs Pat Corbin	ARI	51.10%	57.24%	TBD
LAA	OAK	Jerome Williams vs Tom Milone	OAK	51.57%	54.65%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Yu Darvish vs Felx Hernandez	TEX	57.89%	56.44%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 20, 2012

May 20th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	SD	Ervin Santana vs Anthony Bass	SD	53.60%	49.56%	TBD
ARI	KC	Wade Miley vs Nathan Adcock	KC	52.94%	52.98%	TBD
ATL	TB	Tim Hudson vs David Price	TB	56.80%	56.08%	TBD
FLA	CLE	Josh Johnson vs Derek Lowe	FLA	50.86%	49.91%	TBD
MIN	MIL	Jason Marquis vs Zach Greinke	MIL	68.25%	68.18%	TBD
SEA	COL	Blake Beavan vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	57.89%	NA	TBD
STL	LAN	Kyle Lohse vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	51.57%	47.80%	TBD
CIN	NYA	Johnny Cueto vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	60.55%	62.23%	TBD
NYN	TOR	Dillon Gee vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	61.83%	53.87%	TBD
OAK	SF	Bartolo Colon vs Tim Lincecum	SF	59.76%	58.25%	TBD
PIT	DET	Kevin Correia vs Max Scherzer	DET	62.89%	69.42%	TBD
TEX	HOU	Colby Lewis vs Jordan Lyles	TEX	60.86%	67.22%	TBD
BAL	WAS	Wei-Yin Chen vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	59.92%	55.00%	TBD
BOS	PHI	Josh Beckett vs Cliff Lee	PHI	59.43%	62.19%	TBD
CHA	CHN	Jake Peavy vs Paul Maholm	CHA	53.60%	62.04%	TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets for interleague games.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Most Surprising Teams

A quick comparison of actual MLB teams winning percentage with their expected wins from Vegas to show which teams are the most and least surprising in a good and bad way. Vegas expected wins are calculated by adding up the chances of a team winning each game based on the Vegas money line. If a team had a 55% chance of winning a game according to Vegas they got 0.55 wins and 0.45 losses for that game. The teams at the top of this chart are way outperforming their win totals according to Vegas odds and the teams at the bottom of the chart are way underperforming. Teams in the middle are doing what they were expected to do.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct	Vegas Exp Wins	Vegas Exp Losses	Vegas Exp WPct	Diff Win Exp
Orioles	27	14	0.659	18.248	22.752	0.445	0.213
Dodgers	27	13	0.675	21.736	18.264	0.543	0.132
Indians	23	17	0.575	19.702	20.298	0.493	0.082
Braves	25	16	0.610	21.693	19.307	0.529	0.081
Rays	24	17	0.585	21.263	19.737	0.519	0.067
Pirates	19	21	0.475	16.940	23.060	0.424	0.051
Athletics	20	21	0.488	17.930	23.070	0.437	0.050
Astros	18	22	0.450	16.293	23.707	0.407	0.043
Mets	20	20	0.500	18.438	21.562	0.461	0.039
Nationals	23	17	0.575	21.690	18.310	0.542	0.033
Blue Jays	23	18	0.561	21.705	19.295	0.529	0.032
Rangers	25	16	0.610	24.085	16.915	0.587	0.022
Reds	21	18	0.538	20.135	18.865	0.516	0.022
Giants	21	19	0.525	20.757	19.243	0.519	0.006
Marlins	21	19	0.525	21.164	18.836	0.529	-0.004
White Sox	20	21	0.488	20.263	20.737	0.494	-0.006
Mariners	18	24	0.429	18.316	23.684	0.436	-0.008
Cardinals	21	19	0.525	21.780	18.220	0.545	-0.020
Royals	16	23	0.410	17.259	21.741	0.443	-0.032
Red Sox	20	20	0.500	21.456	18.544	0.536	-0.036
Phillies	21	20	0.512	22.719	18.281	0.554	-0.042
Yankees	21	19	0.525	22.693	17.307	0.567	-0.042
Diamondbacks	18	23	0.439	20.037	20.963	0.489	-0.050
Twins	14	26	0.350	16.014	23.986	0.400	-0.050
Cubs	15	25	0.375	17.587	22.413	0.440	-0.065
Tigers	19	21	0.475	22.262	17.738	0.557	-0.082
Brewers	17	23	0.425	21.327	18.673	0.533	-0.108
Padres	14	27	0.341	18.539	22.461	0.452	-0.111
Rockies	15	24	0.385	19.628	19.372	0.503	-0.119
Angels	18	23	0.439	23.340	17.660	0.569	-0.130

May 19th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	SD	Dan Haren vs Eric Stults	LAA	59.27%	59.36%	TBD
ARI	KC	Ian Kennedy vs Bruce Chen	ARI	51.81%	49.12%	TBD
ATL	TB	Randall Delgado vs Alex Cobb	TB	50.25%	50.30%	TBD
FLA	CLE	Anibal Sanchez vs Jeanmar Gomez	FLA	51.10%	51.95%	TBD
MIN	MIL	Carl Pavano vs Yovani Gallardo	MIL	61.69%	62.36%	TBD
SEA	COL	Jason Vargas vs Chris Friedrich	COL	59.10%	63.71%	TBD
STL	LAN	Jake Westbrook vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	58.93%	53.02%	TBD
CIN	NYA	Homer Bailey vs Ivan Nova	NYA	60.71%	62.44%	TBD
NYN	TOR	Miguel Batista vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	67.00%	62.25%	TBD
OAK	SF	Tyson Ross vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	54.04%	53.92%	TBD
PIT	DET	A.J. Burnett vs Drew Smyly	DET	60.71%	63.43%	TBD
TEX	HOU	Derek Holland vs Lucas Harrell	TEX	62.48%	68.32%	TBD
BAL	WAS	Jason Hammel vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	50.74%	50.12%	TBD
BOS	PHI	Jon Lester vs Joe Blanton	BOS	51.10%	41.98%	TBD
CHA	CHN	John Danks vs Ryan Dempster	CHN	56.99%	51.36%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.14%

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Friday, May 18, 2012

May 18th Simulations Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	SD	Jered Weaver vs Jeff Suppan	LAA	61.98%	62.20%	TBD
ARI	KC	Joe Saunders vs Luis Mendoza	ARI	53.92%	NA	TBD
ATL	TB	Tommy Hanson vs James Shields	TB	55.75%	53.00%	TBD
FLA	CLE	Carlos Zambrano vs Justin Masterson	CLE	53.70%	61.23%	TBD
STL	LAN	Lance Lynn vs Ted Lilly	STL	53.27%	55.58%	TBD
CHA	CHN	Phil Humber vs Jeff Samardzija	CHN	54.13%	51.43%	TBD
BAL	WAS	Jake Arrieta vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	53.05%	56.13%	TBD
BOS	PHI	Daniel Bard vs Cole Hamels	PHI	58.16%	60.87%	TBD
CIN	NYA	Bronson Arroyo vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	57.45%	64.41%	TBD
PIT	DET	Charlie Morton vs Justin Verlander	DET	68.75%	73.87%	TBD
NYN	TOR	John Niese vs Ricky Romero	TOR	58.85%	62.71%	TBD
TEX	HOU	Neftali Feliz vs Wandy Rodriguez	TEX	60.00%	65.76%	TBD
MIN	MIL	Scott Diamond vs Marco Estrada	MIL	56.90%	60.00%	TBD
SEA	COL	Kevin Millwood vs Alex White	COL	56.14%	NA	TBD
OAK	SF	Jarrod Parker vs Barry Zito	SF	51.92%	51.55%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.17%
Notes: Half bets on interleague

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Thursday, May 17, 2012

May 17th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	KC	Brian Matusz vs Luke Hochevar	KC	55.06%	53.34%	TBD
BOS	TB	Felix Doubront vs Matt Moore	TB	54.65%	54.14%	TBD
CHA	LAA	Chris Sale vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	60.40%	64.26%	TBD
LAN	SD	Aaron Harang vs Edinson Volquez	SD	54.02%	55.64%	TBD
FLA	ATL	Ricky Nolasco vs Brandon Beachy	ATL	59.60%	57.47%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Brandon McCarthy vs Matt Harrison	TEX	64.09%	68.46%	TBD
SEA	CLE	Hector Noesi vs Zach McAllister	CLE	59.92%	66.11%	TBD
MIN	DET	P.J. Walters vs Doug Fister	DET	69.23%	68.47%	TBD
CIN	NYN	Mat Latos vs R.A. Dickey	CIN	51.34%	55.24%	TBD
ARI	COL	Trevor Cahill vs Juan Nicasio	COL	51.34%	NA	TBD
STL	SF	Adam Wainwright vs Matt Cain	SF	53.16%	52.56%	TBD
PIT	WAS	James McDonald vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	58.59%	59.93%	TBD
NYA	TOR	Phil Hughes vs Drew Hutchison	NYA	50.62%	49.79%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Shaun Marcum vs J.A. Happ	MIL	57.54%	64.35%	TBD
PHI	CHN	Roy Halladay vs Chris Volstad	PHI	62.62%	64.05%	TBD

Current ROI: 10.19%
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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

May 16th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	KC	Tommy Hunter vs Felipe Paulino	KC	54.95%	55.70%	TBD
BOS	TB	Clay Buchholz vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	57.26%	53.57%	TBD
CHA	LAA	Gavin Floyd vs Jerome Williams	LAA	51.69%	57.98%	TBD
LAN	SD	Chris Capuano vs Clayton Richard	LAN	52.83%	45.48%	TBD
FLA	ATL	Mark Buehrle vs Mike Minor	ATL	51.46%	51.12%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Tom Milone vs Yu Darvish	TEX	67.74%	73.88%	TBD
SEA	CLE	Felx Hernandez vs Ubaldo Jimenez	SEA	53.27%	45.16%	TBD
MIN	DET	Nick Blackburn vs Rick Porcello	DET	63.37%	67.05%	TBD
PIT	WAS	Erik Bedard vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	58.33%	55.25%	TBD
NYA	TOR	Hiroki Kuroda vs Kyle Drabek	NYA	55.56%	52.27%	TBD
CIN	NYN	Mike Leake vs Johan Santana	NYN	56.52%	59.26%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Randy Wolf vs Bud Norris	HOU	52.38%	48.45%	TBD
PHI	CHN	Kyle Kendrick vs Matt Garza	CHN	59.18%	54.48%	TBD
ARI	COL	Pat Corbin vs Jamie Moyer	COL	50.00%	NA	TBD
STL	SF	Jaime Garcia vs Madison Bumgarner	STL	50.00%	51.67%	TBD

Current ROI: 10.19%
Note: No bets today.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

May 15th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	LAN	Wade Miley vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	56.99%	55.54%	TBD
CIN	ATL	Johnny Cueto vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.04%	54.38%	TBD
DET	CHA	Max Scherzer vs Jake Peavy	CHA	55.26%	49.84%	TBD
KC	TEX	Vin Mazzaro vs Colby Lewis	TEX	69.70%	67.58%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Bartolo Colon vs Ervin Santana	LAA	59.76%	59.56%	TBD
SEA	BOS	Blake Beavan vs Josh Beckett	BOS	64.22%	65.65%	TBD
HOU	PHI	Jordan Lyles vs Cliff Lee	PHI	72.41%	72.42%	TBD
SD	WAS	Anthony Bass vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	68.15%	62.23%	TBD
CLE	MIN	Derek Lowe vs Jason Marquis	CLE	56.24%	54.50%	TBD
CHN	STL	Paul Maholm vs Kyle Lohse	STL	63.70%	67.12%	TBD
NYA	BAL	C.C. Sabathia vs Wei-Yin Chen	NYA	59.60%	57.67%	TBD
TB	TOR	David Price vs Henderson Alvarez	TB	50.25%	48.44%	TBD
MIL	NYN	Zach Greinke vs Dillon Gee	MIL	56.99%	55.75%	TBD
PIT	FLA	Kevin Correia vs Josh Johnson	FLA	64.60%	68.15%	TBD
COL	SF	Jeremy Guthrie vs Tim Lincecum	SF	58.76%	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

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MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 14, 2012

May 14th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	LAN	Ian Kennedy vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	59.84%	57.55%	TBD
CIN	ATL	Homer Bailey vs Randall Delgado	ATL	56.71%	53.30%	TBD
DET	CHA	Drew Smyly vs John Danks	DET	53.49%	51.16%	TBD
KC	TEX	Bruce Chen vs Scott Feldman	TEX	63.77%	66.28%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Tyson Ross vs Dan Haren	LAA	65.99%	65.76%	TBD
SEA	BOS	Jason Vargas vs Jon Lester	BOS	62.55%	64.26%	TBD
HOU	PHI	Lucas Harrell vs Joe Blanton	PHI	61.98%	65.05%	TBD
NYA	BAL	Ivan Nova vs Jason Hammel	NYA	51.22%	51.50%	TBD
SD	WAS	Tim Stauffer vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	59.18%	56.64%	TBD
TB	TOR	Jeff Niemann vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	57.81%	55.93%	TBD
MIL	NYN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Miguel Batista	MIL	57.08%	57.40%	TBD
PIT	FLA	Brad Lincoln vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	65.03%	70.09%	TBD
CLE	MIN	Jeanmar Gomez vs Carl Pavano	CLE	54.55%	NA	TBD
CHN	STL	Ryan Dempster vs Jake Westbrook	STL	60.16%	63.58%	TBD
COL	SF	Chris Friedrich vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	53.49%	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

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MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 13, 2012

May 13th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TEX	Jered Weaver vs Neftali Feliz	TEX	55.65%	58.56%	TBD
CLE	BOS	Justin Masterson vs Daniel Bard	BOS	56.04%	49.92%	TBD
COL	LAN	Alex White vs Ted Lilly	LAN	59.60%	NA	TBD
KC	CHA	Danny Duffy vs Phil Humber	CHA	54.85%	58.15%	TBD
SEA	NYA	Kevin Millwood vs Andy Pettitte	NYA	63.57%	68.15%	TBD
WAS	CIN	Edwin Jackson vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	55.26%	50.41%	TBD
NYN	FLA	John Niese vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	57.17%	60.21%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Wandy Rodriguez vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	53.16%	55.11%	TBD
SD	PHI	Jeff Suppan vs Cole Hamels	PHI	65.81%	63.15%	TBD
TB	BAL	James Shields vs Jake Arrieta	TB	54.23%	49.66%	TBD
CHN	MIL	Jeff Samardzija vs Marco Estrada	MIL	53.60%	57.16%	TBD
TOR	MIN	Ricky Romero vs Scott Diamond	TOR	59.60%	NA	TBD
ATL	STL	Tommy Hanson vs Lance Lynn	STL	59.10%	53.51%	TBD
DET	OAK	Justin Verlander vs Jarrod Parker	DET	62.62%	61.41%	TBD
SF	ARI	Barry Zito vs Joe Saunders	ARI	57.54%	59.84%	TBD

Current ROI: 9.40%

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MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 12, 2012

May 12th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TEX	C.J. Wilson vs Matt Harrison	TEX	60.00%	56.28%	TBD
CHN	MIL	Chris Volstad vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	64.09%	66.38%	TBD
CLE	BOS	Josh Tomlin vs Felix Doubront	BOS	56.24%	55.66%	TBD
COL	LAN	Juan Nicasio vs Aaron Harang	LAN	55.85%	NA	TBD
KC	CHA	Luke Hochevar vs Jake Peavy	CHA	57.98%	60.51%	TBD
WAS	CIN	Jordan Zimmerman vs Mat Latos	CIN	54.02%	60.67%	TBD
SEA	NYA	Hector Noesi vs Phil Hughes	NYA	64.35%	69.52%	TBD
HOU	PIT	J.A. Happ vs Charlie Morton	PIT	55.65%	63.29%	TBD
SD	PHI	Edinson Volquez vs Roy Halladay	PHI	65.93%	63.47%	TBD
TB	BAL	Matt Moore vs Brian Matusz	TB	53.81%	49.22%	TBD
NYN	FLA	R.A. Dickey vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	55.65%	62.94%	TBD
TOR	MIN	Drew Hutchison vs P.J. Walters	TOR	55.26%	NA	TBD
ATL	STL	Brandon Beachy vs Adam Wainwright	STL	54.95%	51.35%	TBD
DET	OAK	Doug Fister vs Brandon McCarthy	DET	55.85%	55.29%	TBD
SF	ARI	Matt Cain vs Trevor Cahill	SF	50.62%	50.14%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.97%

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MLB Depth Charts

Friday, May 11, 2012

May 11th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TEX	C.J. Wilson vs Yu Darvish	TEX	58.93%	62.33%	TBD
CLE	BOS	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Clay Buchholz	CLE	53.16%	50.46%	TBD
COL	LAN	Jamie Moyer vs Chris Capuano	LAN	63.03%	TBD	TBD
KC	CHA	Felipe Paulino vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	58.07%	59.90%	TBD
WAS	CIN	Gio Gonzalez vs Mike Leake	WAS	51.81%	50.68%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Bud Norris vs James McDonald	PIT	55.65%	59.88%	TBD
SD	PHI	Clayton Richard vs Vance Worley	PHI	62.62%	58.58%	TBD
SEA	NYA	Felx Hernandez vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	56.80%	57.89%	TBD
TB	BAL	Jeremy Hellickson vs Dana Eveland	BAL	NA	55.49%	TBD
NYN	FLA	Johan Santana vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	53.38%	56.56%	TBD
CHN	MIL	Matt Garza vs Randy Wolf	CHN	50.62%	46.55%	TBD
TOR	MIN	Kyle Drabek vs Nick Blackburn	TOR	57.89%	TBD	TBD
ATL	STL	Mike Minor vs Jaime Garcia	STL	58.76%	59.96%	TBD
SF	ARI	Madison Bumgarner vs Pat Corbin	SF	54.65%	49.09%	TBD
DET	OAK	Rick Porcello vs Tom Milone	DET	53.81%	52.65%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.70%

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MLB Depth Charts

Thursday, May 10, 2012

May 10th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	BOS	Derek Lowe vs Josh Beckett	BOS	58.93%	52.48%	TBD
TB	NYA	David Price vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	59.27%	60.08%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Colby Lewis vs Wei-Yin Chen	TEX	54.75%	54.04%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Derek Holland vs Tommy Hunter	TEX	59.18%	59.48%	TBD
WAS	PIT	Stephen Strasburg vs Kevin Correia	WAS	61.69%	57.78%	TBD
TOR	MIN	Henderson Alvarez vs Jason Marquis	TOR	57.72%	48.59%	TBD
DET	OAK	Max Scherzer vs Bartolo Colon	DET	50.86%	56.33%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.33%

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MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

May 9th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Jon Lester vs Bruce Chen	BOS	TBD	53.10%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Jake Peavy vs Jeanmar Gomez	CHA	TBD	50.08%	TBD
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Anthony Bass	COL	TBD	51.93%	TBD
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	TBD	53.50%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Johnny Cueto vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	56.80%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Josh Johnson vs Lucas Harrell	FLA	TBD	65.75%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Tim Hudson vs Paul Maholm	ATL	TBD	55.62%	TBD
TOR	OAK	Brandon Morrow vs Tyson Ross	TOR	TBD	50.56%	TBD
STL	ARI	Kyle Lohse vs Wade Miley	STL	TBD	51.32%	TBD
NYN	PHI	Dillon Gee vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	69.90%	TBD
TB	NYA	Jeff Niemann vs David Phelps	NYA	TBD	54.27%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Colby Lewis vs Wei-Yin Chen	TEX	TBD	53.97%	TBD
WAS	PIT	Ross Detwiler vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.65%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Ervin Santana vs Carl Pavano	LAA	TBD	51.92%	TBD
DET	SEA	Drew Smyly vs Jason Vargas	DET	TBD	56.98%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.33%

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MLB Depth Charts

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Las Vegas MLB Park Factors

Having compiled all of the MLB run total lines from Vegas Odds (5Dimes, Opening Lines) I decided to reverse engineer (Runs) park factors from the Vegas lines. What I did is substituted total runs scored for each game with the Vegas run totals, then added up the expected run totals for the home games and away games for each team and plugged this in to the basic park factors equation of...

PF: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

Along with the Vegas park factors, I am listing and sorting by 2012 empirical park factors with the Vegas park factor listed to the right side. I am aware that this is a really small sample size for anything dealing with the empirical park factors, but it should give you a glimpse in to how the oddsmakers judge each park. As more games are played and the schedules even out, I will revisit this to see how things shake out. The table below lists the current "runs" park factor and Vegas park factor along with the average number of runs scored away stadium/home stadium for each of the two methods.

Team	Away Stadium Runs	Home Stadium Runs	PF	Vegas Away Stadium Runs	Vegas Home Stadium Runs	Vegas PF
Rockies	7.20	12.94	1.80	7.73	9.39	1.21
Blue Jays	7.14	10.40	1.46	8.16	8.65	1.06
Cardinals	7.65	10.58	1.38	7.91	7.44	0.94
Twins	7.88	10.67	1.35	8.34	8.17	0.98
Marlins	6.39	8.45	1.32	7.07	7.23	1.02
Royals	7.77	10.13	1.30	7.85	8.61	1.10
Diamondbacks	7.63	9.79	1.28	7.32	8.61	1.18
Tigers	7.40	9.11	1.23	8.68	8.24	0.95
Red Sox	10.36	12.21	1.18	8.42	9.20	1.09
White Sox	7.25	8.43	1.16	7.79	8.21	1.05
Nationals	5.83	6.75	1.16	6.97	6.92	0.99
Braves	9.53	10.85	1.14	8.11	7.37	0.91
Brewers	8.56	9.62	1.12	7.13	7.95	1.12
Reds	7.21	7.93	1.10	7.51	8.06	1.07
Yankees	9.80	9.46	0.97	9.15	9.50	1.04
Phillies	7.79	7.09	0.91	6.79	7.20	1.06
Cubs	8.17	7.41	0.91	7.53	7.65	1.02
Astros	9.38	8.31	0.89	7.47	7.79	1.04
Orioles	8.94	7.85	0.88	8.74	8.80	1.01
Angels	8.08	6.88	0.85	8.16	7.52	0.92
Mariners	8.39	6.92	0.83	8.03	7.01	0.87
Dodgers	8.50	7.00	0.82	7.59	6.71	0.88
Padres	8.56	6.67	0.78	7.69	6.28	0.82
Athletics	8.00	6.23	0.78	7.48	7.02	0.94
Rays	10.00	7.75	0.78	8.66	7.58	0.88
Indians	10.42	7.94	0.76	7.68	7.98	1.04
Rangers	10.13	7.69	0.76	8.64	9.45	1.09
Pirates	7.56	5.08	0.67	7.31	7.44	1.02
Mets	11.00	6.50	0.59	7.92	7.24	0.92
Giants	9.86	5.60	0.57	8.06	6.48	0.80

May 8th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Daniel Bard vs Danny Duffy	BOS	53.81%	49.81%	TBD
CHA	CLE	John Danks vs Justin Masterson	CLE	57.54%	58.79%	TBD
COL	SD	Alex White vs Jeff Suppan	COL	50.86%	54.18%	TBD
SF	LAN	Ryan Vogelsong vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	65.10%	63.05%	TBD
NYN	PHI	Miguel Batista vs Joe Blanton	PHI	62.19%	61.26%	TBD
TB	NYA	James Shields vs Ivan Nova	NYA	52.27%	55.79%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Neftali Feliz vs Wei-Yin Chen	TEX	55.65%	55.86%	TBD
WAS	PIT	Edwin Jackson vs A.J. Burnett	WAS	51.81%	52.59%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Randall Delgado vs Ryan Dempster	CHN	51.34%	52.46%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Anibal Sanchez vs Anuery Rodriguez	FLA	58.25%	68.02%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Dan Haren vs Scott Diamond	LAA	62.89%	61.95%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Homer Bailey vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	56.04%	60.78%	TBD
STL	ARI	Jake Westbrook vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	54.65%	54.36%	TBD
TOR	OAK	Ricky Romero vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	54.65%	55.74%	TBD
DET	SEA	Justin Verlander vs Kevin Millwood	DET	66.10%	66.85%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.96%

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MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 07, 2012

May 7th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Felix Doubront vs Jonathan Sanchez	BOS	51.10%	50.78%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Phil Humber vs Zach McAllister	CLE	51.57%	53.71%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Eric Stults vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	56.99%	55.60%	TBD
COL	SD	Drew Pomeranz vs Edinson Volquez	SD	51.10%	50.82%	TBD
SF	LAN	Barry Zito vs Ted Lilly	LAN	NA	60.93%	TBD
NYN	PHI	John Niese vs Roy Halladay	PHI	65.34%	66.71%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Matt Harrison vs Brian Matusz	TEX	58.76%	58.42%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Tommy Hanson vs Jeff Samardzija	ATL	54.65%	57.34%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Carlos Zambrano vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	52.04%	41.46%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Jered Weaver vs Francisco Liriano	LAA	63.83%	62.14%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Bronson Arroyo vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	55.06%	60.43%	TBD
STL	ARI	Lance Lynn vs Joe Saunders	STL	52.94%	56.39%	TBD
DET	SEA	Doug Fister vs Blake Beavan	DET	56.04%	62.75%	TBD

Current ROI: 9.02%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 06, 2012

May 6th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Tommy Hunter vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	58.42%	55.96%	TBD
FLA	SD	Ricky Nolasco vs Joe Wieland	FLA	54.23%	56.80%	TBD
NYA	KC	Phil Hughes vs Luke Hochevar	NYA	53.60%	51.32%	TBD
OAK	TB	Tom Milone vs Matt Moore	TB	60.86%	60.40%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Yu Darvish vs Ubaldo Jimenez	TEX	61.69%	56.36%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Drew Hutchison vs Jerome Williams	LAA	55.65%	60.15%	TBD
CHA	DET	Dylan Axelrod vs Rick Porcello	DET	58.25%	62.22%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Trevor Cahill vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	50.62%	53.86%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Mat Latos vs Charlie Morton	CIN	54.02%	54.94%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Cole Hamels vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	52.49%	51.29%	TBD
STL	HOU	Adam Wainwright vs J.A. Happ	STL	58.93%	63.32%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Aaron Harang vs Travis Wood	LAN	52.04%	52.11%	TBD
ATL	COL	Brandon Beachy vs Juan Nicasio	ATL	53.60%	NA	TBD
MIL	SF	Shaun Marcum vs Matt Cain	SF	57.89%	54.34%	TBD
MIN	SEA	Nick Blackburn vs Hector Noesi	SEA	54.65%	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 6.89%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 05, 2012

Cinco de Mayo Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Jason Hammel vs Aaron Cook	BOS	TBD	52.57%	TBD
FLA	SD	Mark Buehrle vs Clayton Richard	FLA	TBD	56.27%	TBD
NYA	KC	Hiroki Kuroda vs Felipe Paulino	NYA	TBD	54.14%	TBD
OAK	TB	Bartolo Colon vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	TBD	58.57%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Derek Holland vs Derek Lowe	TEX	TBD	56.26%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Kyle Drabek vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	TBD	63.13%	TBD
CHA	DET	Gavin Floyd vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	61.60%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Chris Capuano vs Chris Volstad	LAN	TBD	50.72%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Vance Worley vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	TBD	52.07%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Pat Corbin vs Johan Santana	NYN	TBD	60.68%	TBD
MIL	SF	Randy Wolf vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	55.72%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Mike Leake vs James McDonald	PIT	TBD	50.08%	TBD
STL	HOU	Jaime Garcia vs Bud Norris	STL	TBD	61.22%	TBD
ATL	COL	Mike Minor vs Jamie Moyer	COL	TBD	NA	TBD
MIN	SEA	Jason Marquis vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	NA	TBD

Current ROI: 8.13%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Vegas MLB Standings

Here is the actual MLB Standings and the Vegas Standings. The Vegas Standings are calculated by adding up the Vegas win expectancy for each team from each game they played. If Vegas said a team had a 50% chance of winning, each team was given 0.5 wins.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct	Vegas Exp Wins	Vegas Exp Losses	Vegas Exp WPct
Dodgers	17	9	0.654	13.909	12.091	0.535
Diamondbacks	14	13	0.519	13.235	13.765	0.490
Rockies	12	13	0.480	12.974	12.026	0.519
Giants	12	14	0.462	13.673	12.327	0.526
Padres	8	19	0.296	12.494	14.506	0.463

Cardinals	16	10	0.615	14.245	11.755	0.548
Reds	14	11	0.560	13.476	11.524	0.539
Brewers	13	13	0.500	13.828	12.172	0.532
Astros	12	14	0.462	10.370	15.630	0.399
Pirates	11	15	0.423	10.670	15.330	0.410
Cubs	9	17	0.346	10.990	15.010	0.423

Nationals	17	9	0.654	14.113	11.887	0.543
Braves	16	11	0.593	14.674	12.326	0.543
Phillies	13	14	0.481	14.501	12.499	0.537
Marlins	12	14	0.462	13.601	12.399	0.523
Mets	12	14	0.462	12.249	13.751	0.471

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct	Vegas Exp Wins	Vegas Exp Losses	Vegas Exp WPct
Rangers	17	9	0.654	14.987	11.013	0.576
Athletics	13	14	0.481	12.172	14.828	0.451
Mariners	11	17	0.393	12.250	15.750	0.437
Angels	10	17	0.370	15.476	11.524	0.573

Tigers	13	12	0.520	13.479	11.521	0.539
Indians	14	10	0.583	11.790	12.210	0.491
White Sox	12	14	0.462	13.083	12.917	0.503
Royals	8	17	0.320	11.032	13.968	0.441
Twins	7	18	0.280	9.998	15.002	0.400

Yankees	14	12	0.538	14.680	11.320	0.565
Rays	18	9	0.667	14.122	12.878	0.523
Orioles	17	9	0.654	11.413	14.587	0.439
Blue Jays	16	11	0.593	14.143	12.857	0.524
Red Sox	12	13	0.480	13.375	11.625	0.535

Thursday, May 03, 2012

May 4th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	BOS	Wei-Yin Chen vs Jon Lester	BOS	61.32%	57.29%	TBD
FLA	SD	Josh Johnson vs Anthony Bass	FLA	53.81%	59.76%	TBD
NYA	KC	C.C. Sabathia vs Bruce Chen	NYA	61.17%	59.67%	TBD
OAK	TB	Tyson Ross vs David Price	TB	65.93%	66.27%	TBD
TEX	CLE	Colby Lewis vs Jeanmar Gomez	TEX	58.59%	53.59%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Henderson Alvarez vs Ervin Santana	LAA	55.26%	58.83%	TBD
LAN	CHN	Chad Billingsley vs Paul Maholm	LAN	56.99%	50.79%	TBD
CHA	DET	Jake Peavy vs Drew Smyly	DET	50.25%	54.84%	TBD
CIN	PIT	Johnny Cueto vs Kevin Correia	CIN	57.72%	57.22%	TBD
PHI	WAS	Kyle Kendrick vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	65.75%	61.98%	TBD
ARI	NYN	Wade Miley vs Dillon Gee	ARI	50.74%	49.26%	TBD
STL	HOU	Kyle Lohse vs Lucas Harrell	STL	58.42%	61.15%	TBD
ATL	COL	Tim Hudson vs Guillermo Moscoso	ATL	51.81%	49.08%	TBD
MIN	SEA	Carl Pavano vs Jason Vargas	SEA	56.62%	49.42%	TBD
MIL	SF	Zach Greinke vs Tim Lincecum	SF	50.62%	51.64%	TBD

Current ROI: 6.09%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

How Badly Did Jim Tracy Blow It?

During the May 2nd Dodgers vs Rockies game, the Rockies were leading 5-3 with two outs in the top of the 9th inning (Dodgers batting). Matt Kemp was at the plate with Adam Kennedy at first base. The Dodgers were down to their last out and Matt Kemp represented the tying run at the plate. Even with a HR, the Rockies could do no worse in Kemp's at-bat than a tie ball game. The on deck batter was Dee Gordon, inserted in to the lineup in the latter part of the game. Dee Gordon represented the potential go-ahead run.

Worried about the hot hitting Matt Kemp, Rockies manager Jim Tracy decided to take his chances with the slender Dee Gordon by walking Matt Kemp intentionally. The strategy ended up backfiring badly on the Rockies as Dee Gordon hit a two run double, scoring both Adam Kennedy and Matt Kemp to tie the game. The Rockies went on to later win the game in the bottom of the 9th inning on a pinch hit three run HR by Jason Giambi, overcoming the managerial blunder by Jim Tracy.

Or was it a blunder? And if it was, how much of a blunder was it? I ran both scenarios, the pitch to Kemp and the walk Kemp through my simulator 100,000 times to see how the strategy effected the Rockies win expectancy. The simulator is good for these kinds of scenarios because it can take in to consideration the actual pitchers, batters and runners. A simple analysis would be to just look at the empirical data from past history to get an idea of the Rockies win expectancy in both scenarios. Below are my results along with the empirical results.

Scenario	Dodgers Win Exp	Rockies Win Exp
Sim Pitch to Kemp	5.64%	94.36%
Sim IBB Kemp	7.64%	92.36%
Empirical Pitch to Kemp	3.19%	96.81%
Empirical IBB Kemp	6.82%	93.18%

So there you have it. The simulator says the Rockies lost around 2% of win expectancy by intentionally walking Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. The empirical data says they lost just over 3.5% of win expectancy. Not exactly a game changing move, but definitely the WRONG move.

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

May 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHN	CIN	Ryan Dempster vs Homer Bailey	CIN	58.42%	60.16%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Justin Masterson vs John Danks	CHA	53.16%	51.48%	TBD
NYA	KC	David Phelps vs Danny Duffy	NYA	55.06%	52.44%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Joe Blanton vs Randall Delgado	ATL	54.65%	56.27%	TBD
SEA	TB	Kevin Millwood vs Jeff Niemann	TB	64.60%	62.33%	TBD
TOR	LAA	Brandon Morrow vs Dan Haren	LAA	55.46%	62.62%	TBD
PIT	STL	Erik Bedard vs Jake Westbrook	STL	59.92%	56.88%	TBD
FLA	SF	Anibal Sanchez vs Ryan Vogelsong	FLA	50.86%	55.19%	TBD
ARI	WAS	Ian Kennedy vs Ross Detwiler	ARI	50.86%	51.68%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

May 2nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHN	CIN	Jeff Samardzija vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	TBD	63.87%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Josh Tomlin vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	53.29%	TBD
MIL	SD	Yovanni Gallardo vs Jeff Suppan	MIL	TBD	53.82%	TBD
MIN	LAA	Liam Hendriks vs Jered Weaver	LAA	TBD	65.01%	TBD
OAK	BOS	Brandon McCarthy vs Daniel Bard	BOS	TBD	55.45%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Roy Halladay vs Tommy Hanson	PHI	TBD	54.34%	TBD
SEA	TB	Blake Beavan vs James Shields	TB	TBD	66.65%	TBD
TEX	TOR	Matt Harrison vs Ricky Romero	TEX	TBD	58.58%	TBD
NYN	HOU	Chris Schwinden vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	TBD	50.94%	TBD
LAN	COL	Clayton Kershaw vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	TBD	50.67%	TBD
ARI	WAS	Joe Saunders vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	TBD	55.41%	TBD
BAL	NYA	Jake Arrieta vs Ivan Nova	NYA	TBD	63.02%	TBD
KC	DET	Jonathan Sanchez vs Justin Verlander	DET	TBD	71.20%	TBD
PIT	STL	A.J. Burnett vs Lance Lynn	STL	TBD	61.80%	TBD
FLA	SF	Carlos Zambrano vs Barry Zito	FLA	TBD	52.55%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard