Having compiled all of the MLB run total lines from Vegas Odds (5Dimes, Opening Lines) I decided to reverse engineer (Runs) park factors from the Vegas lines. What I did is substituted total runs scored for each game with the Vegas run totals, then added up the expected run totals for the home games and away games for each team and plugged this in to the basic park factors equation of...
PF: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
Along with the Vegas park factors, I am listing and sorting by 2012 empirical park factors with the Vegas park factor listed to the right side. I am aware that this is a really small sample size for anything dealing with the empirical park factors, but it should give you a glimpse in to how the oddsmakers judge each park. As more games are played and the schedules even out, I will revisit this to see how things shake out. The table below lists the current "runs" park factor and Vegas park factor along with the average number of runs scored away stadium/home stadium for each of the two methods.
| Team | Away Stadium Runs | Home Stadium Runs | PF | Vegas Away Stadium Runs | Vegas Home Stadium Runs | Vegas PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | 7.20 | 12.94 | 1.80 | 7.73 | 9.39 | 1.21 |
| Blue Jays | 7.14 | 10.40 | 1.46 | 8.16 | 8.65 | 1.06 |
| Cardinals | 7.65 | 10.58 | 1.38 | 7.91 | 7.44 | 0.94 |
| Twins | 7.88 | 10.67 | 1.35 | 8.34 | 8.17 | 0.98 |
| Marlins | 6.39 | 8.45 | 1.32 | 7.07 | 7.23 | 1.02 |
| Royals | 7.77 | 10.13 | 1.30 | 7.85 | 8.61 | 1.10 |
| Diamondbacks | 7.63 | 9.79 | 1.28 | 7.32 | 8.61 | 1.18 |
| Tigers | 7.40 | 9.11 | 1.23 | 8.68 | 8.24 | 0.95 |
| Red Sox | 10.36 | 12.21 | 1.18 | 8.42 | 9.20 | 1.09 |
| White Sox | 7.25 | 8.43 | 1.16 | 7.79 | 8.21 | 1.05 |
| Nationals | 5.83 | 6.75 | 1.16 | 6.97 | 6.92 | 0.99 |
| Braves | 9.53 | 10.85 | 1.14 | 8.11 | 7.37 | 0.91 |
| Brewers | 8.56 | 9.62 | 1.12 | 7.13 | 7.95 | 1.12 |
| Reds | 7.21 | 7.93 | 1.10 | 7.51 | 8.06 | 1.07 |
| Yankees | 9.80 | 9.46 | 0.97 | 9.15 | 9.50 | 1.04 |
| Phillies | 7.79 | 7.09 | 0.91 | 6.79 | 7.20 | 1.06 |
| Cubs | 8.17 | 7.41 | 0.91 | 7.53 | 7.65 | 1.02 |
| Astros | 9.38 | 8.31 | 0.89 | 7.47 | 7.79 | 1.04 |
| Orioles | 8.94 | 7.85 | 0.88 | 8.74 | 8.80 | 1.01 |
| Angels | 8.08 | 6.88 | 0.85 | 8.16 | 7.52 | 0.92 |
| Mariners | 8.39 | 6.92 | 0.83 | 8.03 | 7.01 | 0.87 |
| Dodgers | 8.50 | 7.00 | 0.82 | 7.59 | 6.71 | 0.88 |
| Padres | 8.56 | 6.67 | 0.78 | 7.69 | 6.28 | 0.82 |
| Athletics | 8.00 | 6.23 | 0.78 | 7.48 | 7.02 | 0.94 |
| Rays | 10.00 | 7.75 | 0.78 | 8.66 | 7.58 | 0.88 |
| Indians | 10.42 | 7.94 | 0.76 | 7.68 | 7.98 | 1.04 |
| Rangers | 10.13 | 7.69 | 0.76 | 8.64 | 9.45 | 1.09 |
| Pirates | 7.56 | 5.08 | 0.67 | 7.31 | 7.44 | 1.02 |
| Mets | 11.00 | 6.50 | 0.59 | 7.92 | 7.24 | 0.92 |
| Giants | 9.86 | 5.60 | 0.57 | 8.06 | 6.48 | 0.80 |
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