2012 MLB Simulations
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Final Score |
| LAA | TEX | Jered Weaver vs Neftali Feliz | TEX | 55.65% | 58.56% | TBD |
| CLE | BOS | Justin Masterson vs Daniel Bard | BOS | 56.04% | 49.92% | TBD |
| COL | LAN | Alex White vs Ted Lilly | LAN | 59.60% | NA | TBD |
| KC | CHA | Danny Duffy vs Phil Humber | CHA | 54.85% | 58.15% | TBD |
| SEA | NYA | Kevin Millwood vs Andy Pettitte | NYA | 63.57% | 68.15% | TBD |
| WAS | CIN | Edwin Jackson vs Bronson Arroyo | CIN | 55.26% | 50.41% | TBD |
| NYN | FLA | John Niese vs Carlos Zambrano | FLA | 57.17% | 60.21% | TBD |
| HOU | PIT | Wandy Rodriguez vs A.J. Burnett | PIT | 53.16% | 55.11% | TBD |
| SD | PHI | Jeff Suppan vs Cole Hamels | PHI | 65.81% | 63.15% | TBD |
| TB | BAL | James Shields vs Jake Arrieta | TB | 54.23% | 49.66% | TBD |
| CHN | MIL | Jeff Samardzija vs Marco Estrada | MIL | 53.60% | 57.16% | TBD |
| TOR | MIN | Ricky Romero vs Scott Diamond | TOR | 59.60% | NA | TBD |
| ATL | STL | Tommy Hanson vs Lance Lynn | STL | 59.10% | 53.51% | TBD |
| DET | OAK | Justin Verlander vs Jarrod Parker | DET | 62.62% | 61.41% | TBD |
| SF | ARI | Barry Zito vs Joe Saunders | ARI | 57.54% | 59.84% | TBD |
Current ROI: 9.40%
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2 comments:
Wondering how you calc. ROI. Is it the return for games above a certain implied edge? If so, what threshold do you use?
Calculating bet sizes based off of a modified Kelly criterion system.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
And then ROI is simply...
(Total winnings / Amount of total bets)
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