Tuesday, April 02, 2013

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results April 2


Here are the simulation results for the April 2nd game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Madison Bumgarner vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

Record: 1-0
RS: 4
RA: 0
Pythag Record: Infinity
Record As Favorites: 1-0
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 48.89%
Giants on average score 3.395 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.127 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.522

Starting Pitching Lines:
Madison Bumgarner - 6.4ip, 6.8so, 1.6bb, 6.2hits, 0.56hrs, 101pitches, 2.982fip
Hyun-Jin Ryu - 6.2ip, 6.6so, 2.3bb, 5.8hits, 0.50hrs, 100pitches, 3.233fip

Giants players most likely to hit a HR: Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval
Dodgers players most likely to hit a HR: Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier

Giants hitters most strikeouts: Brandon Belt (1.4 times), Gregor Blanco (1.2), Hunter Pence (1.1)
Dodgers hitters most strikeouts: Carl Crawford (1.2 times), Matt Kemp (1.2), Andre Ethier (1.2)

Giants hitter most walks: Buster Posey (0.51 times)
Dodgers hitter most walks: AJ Ellis (0.48 times)

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 50.37%
Over/Under: 6.5 -120o +110u (or about 6.7 runs)

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 2-1
2. Dodgers 3-2
3. Giants 2-1
4. Giants 3-2
5. Dodgers 4-3
6. Dodgers 1-0
7. Giants 3-1
8. Giants 4-3
9. Dodgers 3-1
10. Giants 1-0
11. Giants 4-2
12. Giants 2-0
13. Dodgers 4-2
14. Dodgers 2-0
15. Dodgers 5-4
16. Giants 4-1
17. Giants 3-0
18. Dodgers 4-1
19. Dodgers 3-0
20. Giants 5-2
.
.
100. Dodgers 10-0

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