Monday, May 30, 2011

May 31st Simulations



Coming Alive ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers C.Mortensen vs T.Lilly Dodgers 53.16% 50.90% LAN 8-2
Giants Cardinals R.Vogelsong vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 61.46% 60.32% STL 4-3
Padres Braves M.Latos vs M.Minor Braves 53.38% 51.99% SD 5-4
Indians Blue Jays M.Talbot vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 62.05% 62.29% CLE 6-3
Rangers Rays C.Wilson vs A.Cobb Rangers 55.06% 55.62% TB 5-4
Marlins DBacks A.Sanchez vs I.Kennedy DBacks 54.44% 53.93% FLA 5-2
Pirates Mets J.McDonald vs R.Dickey Mets 53.81% 55.13% PIT 5-1
Angels Royals J.Pineiro vs J.Francis Angels 51.81% 52.03% KC 7-3
Astros Cubs J.Lyles vs C.Zambrano Cubs 62.19% 64.77% HOU 7-3
Twins Tigers B.Duensing vs M.Scherzer Tigers 63.30% 62.07% DET 8-7
White Sox Red Sox P.Humber vs A.Aceves Red Sox 61.24% 57.17% CHA 10-7
Brewers Reds Z.Greinke vs C.Reineke Reds 55.06% 53.05% MIL 7-2
Phillies Nationals C.Lee vs J.Marquis Phillies 62.48% 62.33% WAS 10-2
Yankees Athletics F.Garcia vs B.Anderson Athletics 55.46% 61.60% NYA 10-3
Orioles Mariners J.Guthrie vs E.Bedard Mariners 56.43% 52.19% SEA 3-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
TEX vs TB, Under 8.5 -120, 2.9 units LOSS
CLE vs TOR, Under 8.5 -110, 1.9 units LOSS
MIN vs DET, Under 8.5 -108, 1.5 units LOSS
NYA vs OAK, Under 7 +113, 3.1 units LOSS
SD vs ATL, Over 7 -117, 2.2 units WIN
FLA vs ARI, Over 8 -110, 1.1 units LOSS
COL vs LAN, Over 7 -128, 2.0 units WIN
Daily Profit: -7.0 units

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May 30th Simulations



I Heart USA ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers J.Hammel vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 52.38% 53.11% LAN 7-1
Marlins DBacks C.Volstad vs J.Saunders DBacks 54.55% 49.58% ARI 15-4
Indians Blue Jays F.Carmona vs J.Reyes Blue Jays 51.22% 52.66% TOR 11-1
Brewers Reds C.Narveson vs T.Wood Reds 51.46% 62.27% CIN 7-3
Twins Tigers N.Blackburn vs B.Penny Tigers 57.08% 62.10% DET 6-5
Yankees Athletics B.Colon vs T.Cahill Athletics 51.46% 50.27% NYA 5-0
Phillies Nationals R.Halladay vs L.Hernandez Phillies 64.91% 62.74% PHI 5-4
Rangers Rays D.Holland vs W.Davis Rays 51.22% 46.39% TEX 11-5
Giants Cardinals M.Bumgarner vs K.McClellan Cardinals 58.51% 50.15% SF 7-3
White Sox Red Sox J.Peavy vs J.Lester Red Sox 64.29% 64.08% CHA 7-3
Angels Royals E.Santana vs L.Hochevar Angels 51.22% 58.08% LAA 10-8
Padres Braves A.Harang vs T.Hudson Braves 62.69% 58.11% SD 3-2
Orioles Mariners J.Arrieta vs D.Fister Mariners 51.69% 57.18% SEA 4-3
Astros Cubs A.Rodriguez vs R.Lopez Cubs 58.33% 57.21% HOU 12-7
Pirates Mets C.Morton vs D.Gee Mets 52.15% 56.92% NYN 7-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
No bets today. Day off.
Daily Profit: NA

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Sunday, May 29, 2011

May 29th Simulations



Burn Baby Burn ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Marlins Dodgers R.Nolasco vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.85% 59.26% LAN 8-0
Royals Rangers D.Duffy vs A.Ogando Rangers 67.74% 68.16% TEX 7-6
Red Sox Tigers J.Beckett vs J.Verlander Tigers 62.26% 48.42% DET 3-0
Phillies Mets V.Worley vs J.Niese Phillies 51.81% 43.37% NYN 9-5
Pirates Cubs J.Karstens vs R.Dempster Cubs 56.62% 60.22% CHN 3-2
White Sox Blue Jays J.Danks vs R.Romero Blue Jays 59.76% 55.36% TOR 13-4
Padres Nationals D.Moseley vs Y.Maya Nationals 51.34% 51.53% SD 5-4
Orioles Athletics Z.Britton vs G.Moscoso Athletics 52.04% 51.12% OAK 6-4
Red Sox Tigers C.Buchholz vs A.Oliver Red Sox 52.38% 52.18% BOS 4-3
DBacks Astros J.Collmenter vs J.Happ DBacks 54.85% 53.95% ARI 4-2
Reds Braves J.Cueto vs J.Jurrjens Braves 57.36% 53.74% ATL 2-1
Indians Rays J.Masterson vs J.Hellickson Rays 57.54% 50.90% TB 7-0
Yankees Mariners C.Sabathia vs J.Vargas Yankees 59.27% 60.36% NYA 7-1
Angels Twins D.Haren vs C.Pavano Angels 57.54% 57.26% LAA 6-5
Giants Brewers M.Cain vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 56.99% 50.25% MIL 6-0
Cardinals Rockies K.Lohse vs J.Chacin Rockies 55.46% 54.79% STL 4-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
PHI vs NYN, Under 7.5 -110, bet 0.7 units. LOSS
SD vs WAS, Over 8 +107, bet 0.5 units. WIN
SF vs MIL, Over 7 -106, bet 0.4 units. LOSS
CIN vs ATL, Under 7.5 -117, bet 0.7 units. WIN
CLE vs TB, Under 7.5 +102, bet 0.3 units. WIN
KC vs TEX, Over 9 +100, bet 1.1 units. WIN
Daily Profit: 1.5 units

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Friday, May 27, 2011

May 28th Simulations



Six Games Out, Six Feet Under? ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Marlins Dodgers B.Sanches vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 54.85% 59.79% FLA 6-1
Reds Braves B.Arroyo vs D.Lowe Braves 58.76% 54.06% ATL 7-6
Orioles Athletics B.Bergesen vs J.Outman Athletics 57.17% 52.87% OAK 4-2
Giants Brewers J.Sanchez vs R.Wolf Giants 56.62% 53.33% MIL 4-3
Cardinals Rockies J.Garcia vs J.Nicasio Cardinals 54.44% 58.06% ARI 11-3
Royals Rangers S.O'Sullivan vs M.Harrison Rangers 64.48% 66.65% TEX 10-1
Pirates Cubs P.Maholm vs R.Wells Cubs 56.24% 52.53% PIT 10-0
Yankees Mariners I.Nova vs F.Hernandez Mariners 56.04% 55.53% SEA 5-4
DBacks Astros Z.Duke vs B.Norris Astros 53.27% 58.13% ARI 11-3
Red Sox Tigers C.Buchholz vs A.Oliver Red Sox 57.72% 51.68% Ppd.
Padres Nationals T.Stauffer vs J.Zimmerman Nationals 56.24% 51.23% SD 2-1
Indians Rays C.Carrasco vs J.Shields Rays 63.44% 57.78% CLE 7-3
Phillies Mets C.Hamels vs M.Pelfrey Phillies 59.76% 59.01% PHI 5-2
White Sox Blue Jays E.Jackson vs C.Villanueva White Sox 53.38% 54.17% TOR 9-8
Angels Twins J.Weaver vs A.Swarzak Angels 61.54% 61.80% MIN 1-0

Run Total Picks of The Day!
FLA vs LAN, Over 7 -105, bet 0.5 units. PUSH
KC vs TEX, Over 9.5 -113, bet 2.2 units. WIN
BAL vs OAK, Under 7.5 -101, bet 0.5 units. WIN
Daily Profit: 2.5 units

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Thursday, May 26, 2011

May 27th Simulations



Return Of The Walking Wounded ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Marlins Dodgers J.Vazquez vs J.Garland Dodgers 52.49% 57.78% LAN 3-2
Indians Rays J.Tomlin vs D.Price Rays 60.86% 63.28% TB 5-0
Orioles Athletics C.Tillman vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 61.31% 61.16% OAK 6-2
Padres Nationals C.Richard vs J.Lannan Nationals 54.65% 52.71% WAS 2-1
Angels Twins T.Chatwood vs S.Baker Twins 55.06% 53.14% LAA 6-5
Phillies Mets R.Oswalt vs C.Capuano Phillies 55.65% 58.31% PHI 6-3
Giants Brewers T.Lincecum vs S.Marcum Brewers 51.57% 47.92% SF 5-4
Red Sox Tigers T.Wakefield vs R.Porcello Tigers 52.27% 51.11% BOS 6-3
Royals Rangers N.Adcock vs C.Lewis Rangers 66.10% 66.24% KC 12-7
Pirates Cubs K.Correia vs D.Davis Cubs 50.62% 57.62% PIT 4-2
Cardinals Rockies J.Westbrook vs U.Jimenez Rockies 59.76% 58.53% STL 10-3
Reds Braves M.Leake vs T.Hanson Braves 60.71% 56.86% CIN 5-1
DBacks Astros D.Hudson vs B.Myers DBacks 52.72% 57.19% ARI 7-6
Yankees Mariners A.Burnett vs M.Pineda Mariners 52.27% 55.39% SEA 4-3
White Sox Blue Jays M.Buehrle vs K.Drabek Blue Jays 56.24% 46.69% TOR 4-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
BAL vs OAK, Under 7 -110, bet 0.6 units. LOSS
PHI vs NYN, Under 7 +110, bet 1.7 units. LOSS
KC vs TEX, Over 9 -120, bet 3.4 units. WIN
CIN vs ATL, Under 7.5 -110, bet 2.0 units. WIN
CHA vs TOR, Under 8.5 -110, bet 2.1 units. WIN
Daily Profit: 4.2 units

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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

May 26th Simulations



Off Day, Off Season ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Athletics Angels B.Anderson vs J.Pineiro Athletics 50.62% 59.59% OAK 4-3
Royals Orioles J.Francis vs J.Guthrie Orioles 57.36% 55.59% BAL 6-5
White Sox Blue Jays P.Humber vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 56.43% 56.77% CHA 3-1
Reds Phillies H.Bailey vs C.Lee Phillies 59.76% 60.40% PHI 10-4
Mets Cubs R.Dickey vs C.Zambrano Cubs 58.42% 56.95% CHN 9-3
Marlins Giants A.Sanchez vs R.Vogelsong Giants 50.62% 55.98% FLA 1-0
Red Sox Tigers A.Aceves vs M.Scherzer Tigers 52.49% 53.89% BOS 14-1
DBacks Rockies M.Owings vs C.Mortensen Rockies 60.40% 63.39% ARI 6-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CIN vs PHI, Under 7 +110, bet 4.4 units. LOSS
CHA vs TOR, Under 8 -108, bet 7.3 units. WIN
KC vs BAL, Over 8.5 +100, bet 5.8 units. WIN
Daily Profit: +7.8 unitsTBD

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May 25th Simulations



Sands and Guera Rub Astros The Right Way ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Astros T.Lilly vs A.Rodriguez Dodgers 53.81% 52.42% HOU 2-1
Red Sox Indians J.Lester vs M.Talbot Red Sox 61.17% 57.33% BOS 14-2
Mets Cubs D.Gee vs C.Coleman Mets 50.62% 48.90% NYN 7-4
Royals Orioles L.Hochevar vs J.Arrieta Orioles 63.30% 63.37% BAL 9-2
Cardinals Padres C.Carpenter vs M.Latos Cardinals 53.60% 53.39% SD 3-1
Athletics Angels T.Cahill vs E.Santana Athletics 50.62% 53.12% LAA 4-1
Reds Phillies T.Wood vs R.Halladay Phillies 64.85% 58.25% PHI 5-4
Marlins Giants C.Volstad vs M.Bumgarner Giants 57.89% 66.35% FLA 7-6
Rays Tigers A.Sonnanstine vs B.Penny Tigers 56.99% 53.29% Ppd.
Braves Pirates M.Minor vs J.McDonald Braves 50.62% 48.38% ATL 4-2
Blue Jays Yankees J.Reyes vs F.Garcia Yankees 62.05% 58.62% NYA 7-3
Nationals Brewers J.Marquis vs Z.Greinke Brewers 62.48% 58.32% MIL 6-4
DBacks Rockies I.Kennedy vs J.Hammel Rockies 53.38% 60.59% ARI 2-1
White Sox Rangers G.Floyd vs C.Wilson Rangers 58.42% 62.81% TEX 2-1
Mariners Twins E.Bedard vs B.Duensing Mariners 50.62% 47.00% SEA 3-0

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CIN vs PHI, Under 7 -105, bet 4.9 units.
TOR vs NYA, Under 9 +102, bet 1.7 units. LOSS
CHA vs TEX, Under 8.5 -103, bet 2.2 units. WIN
OAK vs LAA, Over 6.5 -120, bet 2.2 units. Loss
Daily Profit: TBD

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Monday, May 23, 2011

May 24th Simulations



Chicks Dig The Blown Save! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Astros C.Billingsley vs J.Happ Dodgers 54.44% 54.69% LAN 5-4
Marlins Giants R.Nolasco vs M.Cain Giants 55.85% 61.803 FLA 5-1
Mariners Twins D.Fister vs N.Blackburn Twins 52.04% 46.53% MIN 4-2
Reds Phillies J.Cueto vs V.Worley Phillies 51.10% 46.36% CIN 6-3
Blue Jays Yankees R.Romero vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.62% 70.44% NYA 5-4
Nationals Brewers L.Hernandez vs C.Narveson Brewers 59.92% 59.25% MIL 7-6
Braves Pirates J.Jurrjens vs C.Morton Braves 54.65% 52.01% ATL 2-0
Royals Orioles D.Duffy vs Z.Britton Orioles 60.86% 62.54% BAL 5-3
Rays Tigers W.Davis vs J.Verlander Tigers 61.01% 60.30% DET 7-6
Athletics Angels G.Moscoso vs D.Haren Angels 65.40% 60.80% OAK 6-1
White Sox Rangers J.Peavy vs D.Holland Rangers 53.60% 63.00% CHA 8-6
Mets Cubs J.Niese vs R.Dempster Cubs 53.60% 53.00% CHN 11-1
Cardinals Padres K.McClellan vs A.Harang Cardinals 54.65% 51.94% STL 3-2
Red Sox Indians J.Beckett vs F.Carmona Red Sox 56.24% 56.18% BOS 4-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
SEA vs MIN, Under 7.5 +110, bet 0.7 units. WIN
CIN vs PHI, Under 8 +100, bet 1.0 units. LOSS
TOR vs NYA, Under 8 -115, bet 0.9 units. LOSS
WAS vs MIL, Under 8 -105, bet 1.2 units. LOSS
CHA vs TEX, Under 8.5 +120, bet 1.7 units. LOSS
KC vs BAL, Over 8 -122, bet 1.2 units. PUSH
Daily Profit: -4.0 units

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Sunday, May 22, 2011

May 23rd Simulation



Banged Up ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Astros C.Kershaw vs B.Norris Dodgers 55.46% 51.59% HOU 4-3
Mariners Twins J.Vargas vs C.Pavano Twins 50.86% 47.43% SEA 8-7
Rays Tigers J.Hellickson vs P.Coke Tigers 51.34% 54.31% DET 6-3
Cardinals Padres K.Lohse vs D.Moseley Cardinals 56.24% 56.39% STL 3-1
Red Sox Indians C.Buchholz vs J.Masterson Red Sox 53.60% 47.76% CLE 3-2
Reds Phillies B.Arroyo vs C.Hamels Phillies 61.17% 63.99% PHI 10-3
Athletics Angels J.Outman vs J.Weaver Angels 64.85% 59.92% LAA 4-1
Blue Jays Yankees C.Villanueva vs B.Colon Yankees 61.46% 70.01% TOR 7-3
White Sox Rangers J.Danks vs A.Ogando Rangers 59.76% 59.10% TEX 4-0
Nationals Brewers T.Gorzelanny vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 62.62% 60.47% MIL 11-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CIN vs PHI, Under 7.5 -118, bet 1.4 units. LOSS
TB vs DET, Under 8 +100, bet 0.5 units. LOSS
BOS vs CLE, Under 8.5 -110, bet 2.2 units. WIN
CHA vs TEX, Under 8.5 -118, bet 0.8 units. WIN
OAK vs LAA, Over 7 +105, bet 0.5 units. LOSS
Daily Profit: 0.2 units

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Saturday, May 21, 2011

May 22nd Simulations



The Long And Windy City Road ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers White Sox H.Kuroda vs E.Jackson White Sox 56.80% 54.38% CHA 8-3
Athletics Giants G.Gonzalez vs J.Sanchez Giants 52.27% 56.12% SF 5-4
Rangers Phillies M.Harrison vs R.Oswalt Phillies 59.43% 61.01% TEX 2-0
Braves Angels D.Lowe vs T.Chatwood Braves 56.24% 54.77% LAA 4-1
Twins DBacks F.Liriano vs D.Hudson DBacks 58.42% 64.37% ARI 3-2
Tigers Pirates R.Porcello vs P.Maholm Tigers 52.04% 44.31% DET 2-0
Cubs Red Sox J.Russell vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 65.40% 59.73% BOS 5-1
Reds Indians E.Volquez vs C.Carrasco Indians 50.62% 48.73% CLE 12-4
Rays Marlins J.Shields vs J.Buente Rays 57.54% 52.39% TB 4-0
Mets Yankees M.Pelfrey vs I.Nova Yankees 63.03% 66.73% NYA 9-3
Mariners Padres F.Hernandez vs T.Stauffer Mariners 55.06% 45.46% SEA 6-1
Rockies Brewers U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf Rockies 52.04% 56.67% MIL 3-1
Nationals Orioles J.Zimmerman vs C.Tillman Orioles 51.34% 53.60% BAL 2-1
Cardinals Royals J.Garcia vs S.O'Sullivan Cardinals 61.69% 68.15% STL 9-8
Astros Blue Jays W.Rodriguez vs K.Drabek Blue Jays 55.85% 51.10% HOU 3-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
STL vs KC, Over 8 -116, bet 0.8 units. WIN
CIN vs CLE, Under 8.5 -115, bet 1.2 units. LOSS
NYN vs NYA, Under 9.5 -115, bet 1.2 units. LOSS
TEX vs PHI, Under 8 -114, bet 1.1 units. WIN
SEA vs SD, Under 6 -112, bet 0.9 units. LOSS
MIN vs ARI, Under 8 +106, bet 0.8 units. WIN
CHN vs BOS, Under 10.5 -130, bet 0.7 units. WIN


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May 21st Simulations



Beating Up The American League ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers White Sox J.Garland vs M.Buehrle White Sox 59.51% 65.56% CHA 9-2
Rockies Brewers C.Mortensen vs S.Marcum Brewers TBD 55.83% MIL 3-2
Astros Blue Jays B.Myers vs B.Morrow Blue Jays TBD 63.11% TOR 7-5
Braves Angels T.Hanson vs J.Pineiro Braves TBD 53.72% ATL 5-4
Mets Yankees C.Capuano vs A.Burnett Yankees TBD 61.69% NYA 7-3
Cardinals Royals J.Westbrook vs N.Adcock Cardinals TBD 62.21% STL 3-0
Twins DBacks S.Baker vs M.Owings DBacks TBD 55.17% ARI 9-6
Cubs Red Sox C.Zambrano vs A.Aceves Red Sox TBD 56.40% Cubs
Mariners Padres M.Pineda vs C.Richard Mariners TBD 50.32% SEA 4-0
Tigers Pirates M.Scherzer vs K.Correia Pirates TBD 50.94% PIT 6-2
Rays Marlins D.Price vs J.Vazquez Rays TBD 57.73% FLA 5-3
Nationals Orioles J.Lannan vs J.Guthrie Orioles TBD 54.85% BAL 8-3
Rangers Phillies C.Lewis vs C.Lee Phillies TBD 63.19% PHI 2-0
Reds Indians H.Bailey vs J.Tomlin Reds TBD 57.34% CLE 2-1
Athletics Giants B.Anderson vs T.Lincecum Giants TBD 53.51% SF 3-0

Run Total Picks of The Day!
Astros vs Blue Jays, Under 7.5 -120, bet 0.6 units. LOSS
Dodgers vs White Sox, Over 8.0 -120, bet 0.8 units. WIN
Nationals vs Orioles, Over 8.5 +100, bet 0.5 units. WIN
Rangers vs Phillies, Under 7.0 +100, bet 0.5 units. WIN
Twins vs Diamondbacks, Under 9.5 -115, bet 1 unit. LOSS


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Friday, May 20, 2011

May 20th Simulations



Get Rich Quick Scheme, Dodgers Under ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers White Sox T.Lilly vs P.Humber White Sox 58.42% 60.11% LAN 6-4
Nationals Orioles J.Marquis vs J.Arrieta Orioles 59.43% 55.37% WAS 17-5
Cubs Red Sox D.Davis vs J.Lester Red Sox 69.42% 65.53% BOS 15-5
Mariners Padres E.Bedard vs M.Latos Pares 56.43% 57.93% SEA 4-1
Rockies Brewers J.Hammel vs Z.Greinke Brewers 57.54% 49.60% MIL 7-6
Reds Indians T.Wood vs A.White Reds 50.62% 59.76% CLE 5-4
Twins DBacks B.Duensing vs I.Kennedy DBacks 63.03% 64.31% ARI 8-7
Cardinals Royals C.Carpenter vs J.Francis Cardinals 54.65% 57.18% KC 3-0
Rangers Phillies C.Wilson vs R.Halladay Phillies 62.05% 56.79% PHI 3-2
Mets Yankees R.Dickey vs F.Garcia Yankees 61.54% 61.56% NYN 2-1
Rays Marlins A.Sonnanstine vs A.Sanchez Marlins 60.40% 63.61% FLA 5-3
Astros Blue Jays W.Rodriguez vs J.Reyes Blue Jays 59.10% 53.44% HOU 5-2
Athletics Giants T.Cahill vs R.Vogelsong Athletics 51.58% 47.18% SD 2-1
Tigers Pirates B.Penny vs J.Karstens Tigers 54.65% 47.14% PIT 10-1
Braves Angels T.Hudson vs E.Santana Braves 52.27% 50.93% LAA 9-0

Run Total Picks of The Day!
Dodgers vs White Sox, Over 8 -102, bet 1 unit. WIN
Mariners vs Padres, Under 6.5 -125, bet 1 unit. WIN
Reds vs Indians, Under 8.5 -107, bet 1.6 units. LOSS
Twins vs DBacks, Under 8.5 -115, bet 1.4 units. LOSS
Rangers vs Phillies, Under 7 +100, bet 2.4 units. WIN
Mets vs Yankees, Under 9 +112, bet 0.6 units. WIN
Rays vs Marlins, Under 8.5 -116, bet 1.4 units. WIN
Astros vs Blue Jays, Under 9 +100, bet 2.3 units. WIN
Braves vs Angels, Over 7 +104, bet 2 units. WIN


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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

May 19th Simulations



Dodgers Score Five For Their Lonely ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Giants Dodgers M.Bumgarner vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.02% 48.64% SF 3-1
Braves DBacks J.Jurrjens vs J.Collmenter Braves 51.00% 53.35% ARI 2-0
Rays Blue Jays W.Davis vs R.Romero Blue Jays 56.43% 53.23% TOR 3-2
Rockies Phillies J.Chacin vs J.Blanton Rockies 52.27% 49.59% COL 7-1
Tigers Red Sox J.Verlander vs J.Beckett Red Sox 56.99% 61.87% BOS 4-3
Yankees Orioles C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen Yankees TBD 62.93% NYA 13-2
Astros Cardinals J.Happ vs K.McClellan Cardinals 62.19% 62.82% STL 4-2
Twins Athletics N.Blackburn vs T.Ross Athletics 62.48% 65.35% MIN 11-1
Pirates Reds J.McDonald vs J.Cueto Reds 63.57% 64.13% PIT 5-3
Brewers Padres C.Narveson vs A.Harang Brewers 50.62% 52.43% SD 1-0
Cubs Marlins C.Coleman vs C.Volstad Marlins 60.86% 59.18% CHN 5-1
Indians White Sox F.Carmona vs G.Floyd White Sox 54.44% 54.27% CHA 8-2
Rangers Royals D.Holland vs L.Hochevar Rangers 50.86% 58.15% KC 2-1
Angels Mariners D.Haren vs D.Fister Mariners 56.80% 49.94% SEA 2-1
Nationals Mets L.Hernandez vs D.Gee Mets 54.65% 53.80% NYN 1-0


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May18th Simulations



Matt Kemp Saves The Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Giants Dodgers M.Cain vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 54.23% 47.35% SF 8-5
Angels Mariners J.Weaver vs J.Vargas Angels 56.24% 51.29% SEA 3-0
Cubs Marlins R.Dempster vs R.Nolasco Marlins 58.85% 60.86% CHN 7-5
Rangers Royals A.Ogando vs D.Duffy Rangers 56.24% 54.87% TEX 5-4
Rays Blue Jays J.Hellickson vs J.Litsch Rays 50.00% 51.86% TB 6-5
Tigers Red Sox P.Coke vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 61.17% 57.10% BOS 1-0
Indians White Sox J.Masterson vs J.Peavy White Sox 53.38% 43.38% CHA 1-0
Nationals Mets T.Gorzelanny vs J.Niese Mets 53.27% 58.36% NYN 3-0
Braves DBacks J.Teheran vs J.Saunders Braves 52.27% 51.58% ARI 5-4
Twins Athletics C.Pavano vs B.McCarthy Athletics 61.69% 68.81% MIN 4-3
Yankees Orioles B.Colon vs Z.Britton Orioles 54.13% 54.17% NYA 4-1
Rockies Phillies J.de la Rosa vs C.Hamels Phillies 57.54% 59.04% PHI 2-1
Astros Cardinals B.Norris vs K.Lohse Cardinals 62.62% 64.56% STL 5-1
Brewers Padres Y.Gallardo vs D.Moseley Brewers 55.46% 48.90% MIL 5-2
Pirates Reds C.Morton vs B.Arroyo Reds 59.92% 60.39% PIT 5-0


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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

May 17th Simulations



Dodgers Season Slip Sliding Away ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Brewers Dodgers R.Wolf vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 55.16% 55.85% LAN 3-0
Giants Rockies J.Sanchez vs U.Jimenez Rockies 57.08% 54.01% COL 5-3
Pirates Naitonals C.Morton vs J.Zimmerman Nationals 58.51% 58.55% Ppd.
Rangers White Sox M.Harrison vs J.Danks White Sox 57.26% 54.64% CHA 4-3
Astros Braves W.Rodriguez vs D.Lowe Braves 60.94% 58.13% ATL 3-1
Cubs Reds M.Garza vs E.Volquez Reds 55.75% 53.78% CIN 7-5
Orioles Red Sox Z.Britton vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 51.22% 50.32% Ppd.
Phillies Cardinals R.Oswalt vs J.Garcia Cardinals 57.63% 62.20% STL 2-1
Blue Jays Tigers J.Litsch vs R.Porcello Tigers 57.26% 60.03% Ppd.
Padres DBacks T.Stauffer vs D.Hudson DBacks 57.81% 58.82% ARI 6-1
Marlins Mets R.Nolasco vs J.Niese Marlins 51.92% 50.76% Ppd.
Yankees Rays I.Nova vs J.Shields Rays 59.51% 50.37% NYA 6-2
Twins Mariners F.Liriano vs F.Hernandez Mariners 64.54% 62.48% MIN 2-1
Angels Athletics T.Chatwood vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 59.68% 65.53% OAK 14-0
Indians Royals C.Carrasco vs S.O'Sullivan Indians 51.22% 53.61% CLE 7-3


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Sunday, May 15, 2011

May 16th Simulations



Dodgers Hope To Brew Up A Win ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Brewers Dodgers S.Marcum vs J.Garland Brewers 52.72% 53.99% MIL 2-1
Twins Mariners S.Baker vs M.Pineda Mariners 60.24% 56.46% SEA 5-2
Orioles Red Sox C.Tillman vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox 63.30% 57.77% BOS 8-7
Phillies Cardinals C.Lee vs J.Westbrook Phillies 55.85% 52.21% STL 3-1
Marlins Mets J.Johnson vs M.Pelfrey Marlins 59.43% 57.20% FLA 2-1
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs C.Mortensen Giants 58.07% 56.58% COL 7-4
Blue Jays Tigers K.Drabek vs M.Scherzer Tigers 58.59% 62.95% TOR 4-2
Pirates Nationals P.Maholm vs J.Lannan Nationals 52.49% 51.95% WAS 4-2
Cubs Reds C.Zambrano vs H.Bailey Reds 57.72% 58.95% Reds 7-4
Padres DBacks C.Richard vs A.Galarraga DBacks 52.27% 47.52% SD 8-4
Indians Royals J.Tomlin vs K.Davies Indians 54.02% 47.18% CLE 19-1
Yankees Rays A.Burnett vs D.Price Rays 56.80% 56.12% TB 6-5
Rangers White Sox C.Lewis vs E.Jackson White Sox 53.81% 52.73% TEX 4-0
Astros Braves B.Myers vs T.Hanson Braves 69.23% 67.24% ATL 3-2
Angels Athletics J.Pineiro vs B.Anderson Athletics 56.43% 67.62% OAK 5-4


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May 15th Simulations



Dodgers Woes Date Back to 1914 ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers I.Kennedy vs T.Lilly DBacks 51.22% 52.61% ARI 4-1
Cardinals Reds C.Carpenter vs T.Wood Cardinals 51.22% 41.17% CIN 9-7
Mariners Indians M.Pineda vs J.Tomlin Indians 51.46% 49.86% Ppd.
Red Sox Yankees J.Lester vs F.Garcia Red Sox 55.95% 50.67% BOS 7-5
Blue Jays Twins B.Morrow vs B.Duensing Blue Jays 56.14% 46.77% TOR 11-3
White Sox Athletics M.Buehrle vs T.Cahill Athletics 60.16% 60.23% CHA 4-3
Orioles Rays J.Arrieta vs A.Sonnanstine Rays 52.61% 48.61% BAL 9-3
Marlins Nationals J.Vazquez vs J.Marquis Nationals 54.75% 56.76% WAS 8-4
Angels Rangers E.Santana vs C.Wilson Rangers 56.14% 63.33% TEX 5-4
Pirates Brewers K.Correia vs Z.Greinke Brewers 62.26% 60.43% MIL 9-6
Padres Rockies M.Latos vs J.Hammel Rockies 57.26% 64.95% SD 8-2
Phillies Braves R.Halladay vs T.Hudson Phillies 52.38% 54.81% ATL 3-2
Mets Astros C.Capuano vs A.Rodriguez Mets 53.05% 54.45% NYN 7-4


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Saturday, May 14, 2011

May 14th Simulations



Dodgers Look To Tomahawk Diamondbacks Rookie Pitcher ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers J.Collmenter vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 57.36% 61.11% ARI 1-0
Pirates Brewers J.Karstens vs C.Narveson Brewers 59.60% 64.86% MIL 8-2
White Sox Athletics G.Floyd vs T.Ross Athletics 51.10% 57.89% OAK 6-2
Marlins Nationals A.Sanchez vs L.Hernandez Marlins 53.81% 52.58% FLA 1-0
Royals Tigers J.Francis vs B.Penny Tigers 57.17% 58.81% DET 3-0
Mets Astros R.Dickey vs J.Happ Mets 51.81% 51.00% HOU 7-3
Cardinals Reds K.McClellan vs J.Cueto Reds 54.65% 54.67% CIN 7-3
Blue Jays Twins J.Reyes vs N.Blackburn Twins 51.81% 49.64% TOR 9-3
Phillies Braves J.Blanton vs J.Jurrjens Braves 60.24% 52.17% ATL 5-3
Mariners Indians E.Bedard vs A.White Indians 55.85% 55.46% Ppd.
Giants Cubs R.Vogelsong vs D.Davis Giants 50.62% 51.40% SF 3-0
Angels Rangers D.Haren vs D.Holland Rangers 51.34% 50.68% LAA 3-2
Orioles Rays B.Bergesen vs W.Davis Rays 59.27% 52.10% BAL 6-0
Red Sox Yankees J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia Yankees 55.26% 63.18% BOS 6-0
Padres Rockies A.Harang vs J.Chacin Rockies 62.62% 63.71% SD 9-7


Interesting story about Diamondbacks rookie starting pitcher Josh Collmenter.
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Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator


I have created an online (Google Docs Spreadsheet) Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator. Click on the link and enter the ML for the favorite and underdog teams and the expected win percentage based on those odds will be calculated for you. Please give me feedback if you can if the calculator works for you.

Friday, May 13, 2011

May 13th Simulations



Battle of Third Place ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
DBacks Dodgers J.Saunders vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.30% 60.95% LAN 4-3
Mets Astros D.Gee vs B.Norris Astros 50.62% 56.66% NYN 6-4
Padres Rockies D.Moseley vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 60.86% 70.77% COL 12-7
Giants Cubs M.Bumgarner vs R.Dempster Giants 50.62% 54.86% CHN 11-4
Mariners Indians D.Fister vs F.Carmona Indians 61.83% 51.10% CLE 5-4
Phillies Braves C.Hamels vs B.Beachy Phillies 50.62% 54.93% PHI 5-4
Blue Jays Twins R.Romero vs C.Pavano Blue Jays 51.10% 50.38% TOR 2-0
Pirates Brewers J.McDonald vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 60.55% 60.01% MIL 5-2
Red Sox Yankees C.Buchholz vs B.Colon Yankees 53.16% 57.79% BOS 5-4
Orioles Rays J.Guthrie vs J.Hellickson Rays 58.25% 51.05% TB 3-0
Royals Tigers L.Hochevar vs J.Verlander Tigers 63.30% 69.40% DET 3-1
Angels Rangers J.Weaver vs A.Ogando Rangers 51.34% 47.65% TEX 4-1
Marlins Nationals C.Volstad vs T.Gorzelanny Nationals 52.72% 56.66% FLA 6-5
Cardinals Reds K.Lohse vs B.Arroyo Reds 53.81% 42.10% CIN 6-5
White Sox Athletics P.Humber vs B.McCarthy Athletics 53.16% 64.90% CHA 4-3


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -4.24%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +7.06%

Pitching Machines

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

May 12th Simulations



Pi Rates Squared ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Pirates J.Garland vs C.Morton Pirates 54.65% 58.24% TBD
Mets Rockies J.Niese vs U.Jimenez Rockies 63.17% 59.23% TBD
DBacks Giants D.Hudson vs M.Cain Giants 56.99% 53.57% TBD
Nationals Braves J.Zimmerman vs D.Lowe Braves 63.70% 60.94% TBD
Royals Yankees S.O'Sullivan vs I.Nova Yankees 64.85% 72.30% TBD
Mariners Orioles J.Vargas vs Z.Britton Orioles 59.43% 59.24% TBD
Cardinals Cubs J.Garcia vs C.Coleman Cardinals 57.72% 64.52% TBD
Rays Indians J.Shields vs J.Masterson Indians 52.27% 56.41% TBD


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.74%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +8.38%

Pitching Machines

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

May 11th Simulations



Dodgers Offense Catches On In A Flash ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Pirates H.Kuroda vs P.Maholm Pirates 50.62% 59.12% TBD
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Lackey vs J.Litsch Red Sox 53.81% 58.01% TBD
Reds Astros E.Volquez vs W.Rodriguez Reds 52.27% 48.77% TBD
Phillies Marlins C.Lee vs R.Nolasco Phillies 51.10% 56.77% TBD
Mariners Orioles F.Hernandez vs C.Tillman Mariners 55.46% 48.01% TBD
Athletics Rangers G.Gonzalez vs M.Harrison Rangers 51.10% 47.58% TBD
White Sox Angels J.Peavy vs T.Chatwood Angels 50.62% 51.33% TBD
Cardinals Cubs J.Westbrook vs M.Garza Cubs 54.44% 54.43% TBD
Royals Yankees V.Mazzaro vs A.Burnett Yankees 67.21% 73.86% TBD
Nationals Braves J.Lannan vs T.Hanson Braves 66.10% 65.13% TBD
Tigers Twins P.Coke vs S.Baker Twins 50.62% 48.83% TBD
Rays Indians D.Price vs C.Carrasco Rays 52.94% 53.60% TBD
Mets Rockies J.Niese vs U.Jimenez Rockies 62.62% 60.69% TBD
DBacks Giants A.Galarraga vs J.Sanchez Giants 60.86% 67.17% TBD
Padres Brewers T.Stauffer vs R.Wolf Brewers 55.06% 48.63% TBD


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -4.30%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +10.47%

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Monday, May 09, 2011

May 10th Simulations



Dodgers No Can Do ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Pirates T.Lilly vs K.Correia Pirates 51.92% 56.27% LAN 10-3
Phillies Marlins R.Halladay vs J.Johnson Phillies 52.27% 49.93% FLA 2-1
DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum Giants 64.85% 64.22% SF 1-0
Tigers Twins R.Porcello vs F.Liriano Twins 52.27% 48.88% DET 10-2
White Sox Angels J.Danks vs J.Pineiro Angels 55.75% 52.63% LAA 6-2
Nationals Braves J.Marquis vs T.Hudson Braves 66.67% 59.63% WAS 7-6
Padres Brewers C.Richard vs S.Marcum Brewers 61.46% 56.35% MIL 8-6
Athletics Rangers B.Anderson vs C.Lewis Rangers 51.34% 40.64% TEX 7-2
Mets Rockies M.Pelfrey vs J.Hammel Rockies 60.71% 59.80% NYN 4-3
Royals Yankees K.Davies vs F.Garcia Yankees 68.25% 70.98% NYA 3-1
Mariners Orioles M.Pineda vs J.Arrieta Orioles 50.86% 58.97% BAL 7-6
Reds Astros H.Bailey vs B.Myers Reds 53.38% 53.40% CIN 7-3
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Lester vs K.Drabek Red Sox 60.24% 64.17% TOR 7-6
Rays Indians A.Sonnanstine vs J.Tomlin Indians 56.43% 51.13% CLE 5-4
Cardinals Cubs C.Carpenter vs C.Zambrano Cardinals 52.49% 50.49% STL 6-4


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -4.08%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.73%

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Sunday, May 08, 2011

May 9th Simulations



Dodgers Avoid Bus Ride In To Pittsburgh ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Pirates C.Billingsley vs J.Karstens Dodgers 54.02% 51.83% PIT 4-1
Phillies Marlins J.Blanton vs J.Vazquez Phillies 50.62% 53.87% PHI 6-4
Mets Rockies C.Capuano vs J.Chacin Rockies 62.05% 57.93% COL 2-1
Athletics Rangers T.Cahill vs C.Wilson Rangers 54.23% 58.89% OAK 7-2
Padres Brewers M.Latos vs Z.Greinke Brewers 57.89% 55.31% MIL 4-3
Tigers Blue Jays M.Scherzer vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 52.72% 54.52% DET 10-5
Twins Red Sox N.Blackburn vs J.Beckett Red Sox 67.74% 70.22% BOS 2-1
Reds Astros T.Wood vs A.Rodriguez Reds 55.65% 59.80% CIN 6-1
White Sox Angels E.Jackson vs E.Santana Angels 58.59% 56.29% CHA 8-0


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.70%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +10.78%

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May 8th Simulations



Can Kershaw Stop The Bleeding ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Mets C.Kershaw vs R.Dickey Mets 53.70% 55.93% LAN 4-2
Braves Phillies J.Jurrjens vs C.Hamels Phillies 57.81% 64.24% ATL 5-2
Tigers Blue Jays B.Penny vs J.Reyes Blue Jays TBD 53.53% DET 5-2
Yankees Rangers C.Sabathia vs A.Ogando Yankees 60.94% 60.79% NYA 12-5
Reds Cubs J.Cueto vs R.Dempster Cubs 50.00% 51.00% CIN 2-0
Twins Red Sox C.Pavano vs D.Matsuzaka Red Sox TBD 64.54% BOA 9-5
Rockies Giants J.de la Rosa vs R.Vogelsong Rockies 55.75% 56.18% SF 3-0
Nationals Marlins L.Hernandez vs A.Sanchez Marlins 61.39% 58.79% FLA 8-0
Indians Angels F.Carmona vs D.Haren Angels 60.00% 62.24% LAA 6-5
Athletics Royals T.Ross vs J.Francis Athletics 52.38% 54.27% OAK 5-2
Brewers Cardinals C.Narveson vs K.McClellan Cardinals 56.14% 61.28% Stl 3-1
Astros Pirates J.Happ vs J.McDonald Pirates 56.33% 55.02% PIT 5-4
DBacks Padres J.Saunders vs A.Harang Padres 53.70% 54.23% SD 4-3
Rays Orioles W.Davis vs B.Bergesen Orioles TBD 53.94% TB 5-3
White Sox Mariners M.Buehrle vs E.Bedard Mariners 53.27% 51.33% CHA 5-2


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.52%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.57%

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Saturday, May 07, 2011

May 7th Simulations



Dodgers 3 Under For The Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Mets J.Garland vs C.Young Mets 55.46% 59.39% NYN 4-2
OAK KC Brandon McCarthy vs Luke Hochevar OAK TBD 61.77 KC 4-3
DET TOR Justin Verlander vs Ricky Romero TOR TBD 52.333 DET 9-0
CLE LAA Alex White vs Jered Weaver LAA TBD 68.056 CLE 4-3
TB BAL Jeremy Hellickson vs Jeremy Guthrie BAL TBD 61.241 TB 8-2
MIN BOS Brian Duensing vs Clay Buchholz BOS TBD 56.885 BOS 4-0
NYA TEX Bartolo Colon vs Derek Holland NYA TBD 50.253 TEX 7-5
COL SF Clay Mortensen vs Madison Bumgarner SF TBD 61.051 SF 3-2
CHA SEA Gavin Floyd vs Doug Fister SEA TBD 58.182 CHA 6-0
CIN CHN Bronson Arroyo vs Casey Coleman CIN TBD 51.916 CHN 3-2
ATL PHI Julio Teheren vs Kyle Kendrick PHI TBD 55.991 PHI 3-0
WAS FLA Tom Gorzelanny vs Chris Volstad WAS TBD 50.334 WAS 5-2
HOU PIT Bud Norris vs Charlie Morton HOU TBD 50.042 PIT 6-1
ARI SD Daniel Hudson vs Dustin Moseley ARI TBD 53.524 ARI 6-0
MIL STL Yovanni Gallardo vs Kyle Lohse STL TBD 63.783 MIL 4-0


Seasonal Money Line ROI: -1.93%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +9.48%

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Friday, May 06, 2011

May 6th Simulations



Troubled Franchises On Paper, Battle It Out On Field ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Mets H.Kuroda vs J.Niese Mets 53.81% 57.26% NYN 6-3
Astros Pirates W.Rodriguez vs P.Maholm Pirates 52.94% 55.89% HOU 3-2
Yankees Rangers I.Nova vs M.Harrison Yankees 51.10% 45.58% NYA 4-1
Athletics Royals G.Gonzalez vs S.O'Sullivan Athletics 52.72% 60.71% OAK 3-2
White Sox Mariners P.Humber vs F.Hernandez Mariners 62.19% 62.04% SEA 3-2
Nationals Marlins J.Zimmerman vs R.Nolasco Marlins 60.08% 54.21% WAS 4-2
Brewers Cardinals R.Wolf vs J.Garcia Cardinals 58.59% 70.69% STL 6-0
Braves Phillies D.Lowe vs C.Lee Phillies 60.24% 62.95% ATL 5-0
Twins Red Sox S.Baker vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 57.72% 59.58% MIN 9-2
Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs M.Cain Giants 52.27% 51.42% SF 4-3
Indians Angels J.Masterson vs T.Chatwood Indians 52.04% 54.62% LAA 2-1
Rays Orioles J.Shields vs Z.Britton Orioles 52.27% 57.05% TB 6-2
Reds Cubs E.Volquez vs M.Garza Cubs 54.44% 57.95% CIN 5-4
Tigers Blue Jays P.Coke vs J.Litsch Blue Jays 52.04% 50.97% TOR 7-4
DBacks Padres A.Galarraga vs T.Stauffer Padres 57.17% 63.09% SD 4-3


Vegas Daily Total Runs: 126 -110

Seasonal Money Line ROI: -3.32%
Seasonal Total Runs ROI: +8.56%

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Thursday, May 05, 2011

May 5th Simulations



Sell The Team McCourt ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Blue Jays Rays R.Romero vs D.Price Rays 61.98% 57.05% TB 3-1
Rangers Mariners C.Lewis vs J.Vargas Rangers 51.46% 46.83% SEA 3-1
Marlins Cardinals J.Johnson vs J.Westbrook Marlins 57.08% 50.08% STL 6-3
Giants Mets J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey Giants 50.00% 53.61% NYN 5-2
Indians Athletics J.Gomez vs B.Anderson Athletics 62.83% 70.26% CLE 4-3
Angels Red Sox J.Pineiro vs J.Lackey Red Sox 59.35% 63.76% LAA 11-0
Rockies DBacks J.Hammel vs I.Kennedy DBacks 52.15% 51.96% ARI 3-2
Nationals Phillies J.Lannan vs R.Halladay Phillies 68.25% 64.51% PHI 7-3
Yankees Tigers A.Burnett vs R.Porcello Yankees 51.22% 51.90% DET 6-3
Orioles Royals C.Tillman vs B.Chen Royals 51.22% 42.91% KC 9-1
Brewers Braves S.Marcum vs B.Beachy Braves 55.56% 53.46% ATL 2-1
Astros Reds B.Myers vs H.Bailey Reds 59.68% 62.64% CIN 10-4


Seasonal ROI: -2.18%

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Tuesday, May 03, 2011

May 4th Simulations



29 So Devine ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Cubs Dodgers C.Zambrano vs T.Lilly Dodgers 52.72% 47.78% CHN 5-1
Orioles Royals J.Arrieta vs K.Davies Orioles 50.62% 57.96% BAL 3-2
Indians Athletics J.Tomlin vs T.Cahill Athletics 58.42% 64.25% OAK 3-1
Marlins Cardinals J.Vazquez vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 63.57% 68.65% FLA 8-7
Twins White Sox N.Blackburn vs J.Danks White Sox 62.19% 63.40% MIN 3-2
Rangers Mariners C.Wilson vs M.Pineda Mariners 50.62% 46.64% TEX 5-2
Yankees Tigers F.Garcia vs M.Scherzer Tigers 51.81% 46.96% DET 4-0
Astros Reds A.Rodriguez vs T.Wood Reds 65.10% 69.98% CIN 3-2
Brewers Braves M.Estrada vs T.Hanson Braves TBD 64.90% ATL 8-3
Brewers Braves Z.Greinke vs T.Hudson Braves 56.62% 58.98% ATL 8-0
Nationals Phillies J.Marquis vs V.Worley Phillies 59.60% 48.43% PHI 7-4
Pirates Padres K.Correia vs C.Richard Padres 57.54% 59.85% PIT 7-4
Blue Jays Rays B.Morrow vs J.Niemann Rays 53.60% 51.91% TOR 3-2
Rockies DBacks J.Chacin vs B.Enright Rockies 55.46% 58.97% COL 6-4
Giants Mets T.Lincecum vs C.Capuano Giants 56.80% 58.71% SF 2-0
Angels Red Sox E.Santana vs J.Beckett Red Sox 63.57% 62.54% LAA 5-3


Seasonal ROI: -2.80%

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Monday, May 02, 2011

May 3rd Simulations



28 In A Row!!! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Cubs Dodgers R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 59.18% 60.97% CHN 4-1
Twins White Sox F.Liriano vs E.Jackson White Sox 55.16% 55.70% MIN 1-0
Brewers Braves M.Estrada vs T.Hanson Braves 60.78% 65.21% Ppd.
Rangers Mariners A.Ogando vs E.Bedard Rangers 54.75% 54.40% SEA 4-3
Nationals Phillies L.Hernandez vs C.Hamels Phillies 68.75% 62.36% PHI 4-1
Yankees Tigers C.Sabathia vs B.Penny Yankees 61.39% 64.90% DET 4-2
Giants Mets R.Vogelsong vs R.Dickey Mets 54.13% 58.44% SF 7-6
Orioles Royals B.Bergesen vs J.Francis Royals 54.13% 47.41% KC 6-5
Angels Red Sox D.Haren vs J.Lester Red Sox 59.02% 60.32% BOS 7-3
Blue Jays Rays J.Reyes vs W.Davis Rays 61.69% 58.33% TB 3-2
Indians Athletics F.Carmona vs T.Ross Athletics 53.27% 55.76% CLE 4-1
Astros Reds J.Happ vs M.Leake Reds 63.24% 64.38% HOU 10-4
Marlins Cardinals A.Sanchez vs K.McClellan Cardinals 56.14% 56.10% STL 7-5
Pirates Padres J.Karstens vs M.Latos Padres 60.00% 61.67% SD 6-5
Rockies DBacks J.de la Rosa vs J.Saunders Rockies 54.55% 56.28% ARI 4-3


Seasonal ROI: -1.19%

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Sunday, May 01, 2011

May 2nd Simulations



Many Thanks to US Navy Seals ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Cubs Dodgers J.Russell vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 65.22% 58.53% LAN 5-2
Angels Red Sox J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz Angels 50.62% 49.93% BOS 9-5
Orioles White Sox J.Guthrie vs M.Buehrle White Sox 50.86% 48.23% CHA 6-2
Rangers Athletics D.Holland vs B.McCarthy Athletics 51.81% 54.52% OAK 5-4
Astros Reds J.Happ vs M.Leake Reds 62.48% 64.42% Ppd.
Pirates Padres J.McDonald vs A.Harang Padres 59.10% 63.31% PIT 4-3
Giants Nationals M.Bumgarner vs T.Gorzelanny Nationals 50.62% 50.26% WAS 2-0
Brewers Braves Y.Gallardo vs J.Jurrjens Braves 57.17% 55.99% ATL 6-2
Marlins Cardinals C.Volstad vs K.Lohse Cardinals 61.69% 68.04% FLA 6-5
Yankees Tigers B.Colon vs J.Verlander Tigers 52.72% 50.50% NYA 5-3


Seasonal ROI: 0.05%

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James Loney's Long And Winding Road

back towards Replacement Level

James Loney is off to an awful start offensively. What to do with him both in the short and long term is a popular topic. Not much can be done short term as Loney has very little trade value. The best you can do is to sit him against left handed pitchers and start a right handed bat at first base on those days. Long term, a tough decision will have to be made at the end of the 2011 season as to whether or not the Dodgers should tender Loney a contract or give him a raise in arbitration. Luckily for the Dodgers, that bridge does not need to be crossed for a while. Without further ado, here are some stats that James Loney would have to attain in order to bring his batting line back to replacement level for a first-baseman (wOBA - 0.312).

NameABH1B2B3BHRBBAveOBPSLGOPSwOBAGoal
J.Loney105222010140.20950.23640.24760.48400.2123Current hitting line.
MR Walk1052220101310.20950.38690.24760.63450.312327 straight walks.
MR Single124413910140.33060.34880.36290.71170.313619 straight singles.
MR Double1173420130140.29060.31150.42740.73880.313412 straight doubles.
MR Triple114312019140.27190.29410.46490.75900.31429 straight triples
MR HR112292010840.25890.28210.48210.76420.31627 straight homeruns.
Normal117342750280.29060.33330.38460.71790.313012 for 12 with 7 singles, 4 doubles, 7 HRs and 4 walks.


May 1st Simulations



Joltin' Andre ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Padres Dodgers D.Moseley vs J.Garland Dodgers 55.65% 47.86% LAN 7-0
Pirates Rockies C.Morton vs U.Jimenez Rockies 65.10% 69.52% PIT 8-4
Cardinals Braves J.Garcia vs D.Lowe Braves 51.81% 42.95% ATL 6-5
Tigers Indians P.Coke vs J.Masterson Indians 56.71% 57.19% CLE 5-4
Mariners Red Sox F.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield Mariners 51.81% 48.51% BOS 3-2
Rangers Athletics M.Harrison vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 53.16% 57.32% OAK 7-2
Mets Phillies C.Young vs C.Lee Phillies 62.48% 69.06% TBD
Blue Jays Yankees J.Litsch vs I.Nova Yankees 57.17% 69.22% NYA 5-2
Twins Royals C.Pavano vs L.Hochevar Royals 50.62% 46.63% KC 10-3
Brewers Astros C.Narveson vs B.Norris Brewers 53.16% 48.22% HOU 5-0
Giants Nationals M.Cain vs J.Zimmerman Giants 53.60% 50.31% WAS 5-2
Marlins Reds R.Nolasco vs B.Arroyo Reds 51.34% 57.24% FLA 9-5
Cubs DBacks C.Coleman vs D.Hudson DBacks 61.01% 62.94% ARI 4-3
Orioles White Sox Z.Britton vs G.Floyd White Sox 53.38% 50.46% BAL 6-4
Angels Rays T.Chatwood vs A.Cobb Rays 57.45% 53.95% LAA 6-5


Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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