Dodger Sims: July 2012

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

July 31st - Diamondbacks vs Dodgers (Simulator Box Scores)

Hitters Statistics

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Gerardo Parra	4.432	1.221	0.923	0.211	0.022	0.065	0.274	0.239	0.275	1.146	0.308
Aaron Hill	4.289	1.130	0.729	0.281	0.014	0.107	0.370	0.199	0.265	0.806	0.313
Jason Kubel	4.183	1.032	0.703	0.181	0.008	0.140	0.419	0.169	0.328	1.449	0.306
Paul Goldschmidt	4.090	1.169	0.679	0.352	0.005	0.133	0.489	0.193	0.321	1.056	0.350
Justin Upton	3.978	1.133	0.779	0.236	0.008	0.110	0.463	0.192	0.334	1.091	0.339
Miguel Montero	3.873	0.944	0.709	0.162	0.005	0.068	0.364	0.144	0.331	1.316	0.290
Chris Johnson	3.882	1.076	0.721	0.278	0.007	0.070	0.405	0.143	0.210	1.101	0.316
Stephen Drew	3.766	0.926	0.691	0.176	0.012	0.048	0.334	0.128	0.212	1.053	0.277
Pitchers Spot	3.744	0.473	0.378	0.083	0.001	0.010	0.155	0.079	0.139	1.853	0.146
Dodgers
Mark Ellis	4.278	1.220	0.842	0.291	0.022	0.065	0.297	0.266	0.330	0.683	0.329
Juan Rivera	4.154	1.175	0.793	0.277	0.005	0.100	0.382	0.236	0.317	0.622	0.333
Matt Kemp	4.067	1.315	0.838	0.309	0.028	0.140	0.524	0.258	0.355	0.799	0.387
Andre Ethier	4.001	1.109	0.779	0.224	0.008	0.098	0.501	0.194	0.322	1.005	0.327
Hanley Ramirez	3.872	1.189	0.755	0.315	0.013	0.106	0.540	0.233	0.348	0.710	0.367
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3.772	1.051	0.707	0.241	0.008	0.095	0.504	0.193	0.325	0.629	0.333
Luis Cruz	3.756	1.044	0.672	0.305	0.025	0.042	0.416	0.174	0.234	0.652	0.319
A.J. Ellis	3.541	0.982	0.734	0.200	0.008	0.041	0.375	0.135	0.341	0.753	0.321
Pitchers Spot	3.631	0.555	0.439	0.103	0.003	0.011	0.172	0.100	0.155	1.405	0.174

Pitching Statistics

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Wade Miley	6.101	4.609	1.837	6.972	0.494	97.68	3.645
J.J. Putz	0.439	0.527	0.081	0.382	0.030	6.69	2.248
David Hernandez	0.412	0.552	0.137	0.342	0.027	6.64	2.373
Brad Ziegler	0.614	0.493	0.191	0.641	0.019	9.71	2.930
Craig Breslow	0.277	0.250	0.105	0.294	0.026	4.54	3.734
Takashi Saito	0.215	0.213	0.081	0.214	0.017	3.50	3.350
Mike Zagurski	0.474	0.437	0.220	0.512	0.057	8.02	4.299
Brad Bergesen	0.241	0.176	0.077	0.284	0.030	3.91	4.295
Dodgers
Chris Capuano	6.405	7.344	1.540	6.412	0.573	101.72	2.792
Kenley Jansen	0.458	0.834	0.115	0.286	0.027	7.24	1.084
Brandon League	0.408	0.388	0.108	0.426	0.020	6.46	2.722
Randy Choate	0.620	0.757	0.186	0.574	0.034	9.96	2.379
Josh Lindblom	0.263	0.306	0.072	0.261	0.032	4.22	3.293
Javy Guerra	0.147	0.151	0.053	0.146	0.007	2.40	2.847
Ronald Belisario	0.647	0.723	0.190	0.631	0.035	10.36	2.548
Jamey Wright	0.361	0.370	0.150	0.369	0.021	6.01	3.175

This is the box score output from today's simulation of the Diamondbacks / Dodgers game. The simulation was ran before some of today's trades were made.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

July 24th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BOS	TEX	Clay Buchholz vs Martin Perez	TEX	56.04%	59.57%	- - -
DET	CLE	Doug Fister vs Ubaldo Jimenez	DET	53.60%	57.74%	- - -
KC	LAA	Wil Smith vs Garrett Richards	LAA	61.83%	58.58%	- - -
MIN	CHA	Cole DeVries vs Jose Quintana	CHA	61.83%	58.19%	- - -
CHN	PIT	Paul Maholm vs James McDonald	PIT	60.40%	57.58%	- - -
MIL	PHI	Zach Greinke vs Cliff Lee	PHI	55.85%	58.02%	- - -
TB	BAL	Jeremy Hellickson vs Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	54.65%	58.25%	- - -
OAK	TOR	Travis Blackley vs Brett Cecil	TOR	55.85%	50.37%	- - -
ATL	FLA	Tim Hudson vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	50.74%	53.26%	- - -
WAS	NYN	Gio Gonzalez vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	51.57%	55.23%	- - -
CIN	HOU	Mike Leake vs Lucas Harrell	CIN	57.17%	55.61%	- - -
LAN	STL	Clayton Kershaw vs Adam Wainwright	STL	55.06%	59.30%	- - -
COL	ARI	Edwar Cabrera vs Joe Saunders	ARI	60.40%	56.85%	- - -
NYA	SEA	Freddy Garcia vs Jason Vargas	SEA	53.05%	45.05%	NYA, 2.5u
SD	SF	Edinson Volquez vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	62.19%	64.08%	- - -

Previous Day: NA
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, July 23, 2012

July 23rd Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Tommy Hunter vs Justin Masterson	CLE	TBD	59.78%	TBD
BOS	TEX	Felix Doubront vs Scott Feldman	TEX	TBD	57.06%	TBD
KC	LAA	Bruce Chen vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	TBD	62.87%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Francisco Liriano vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	51.37%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Jeff Samardzija vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.38%	TBD
MIL	PHI	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	PHI	TBD	65.06%	TBD
ATL	FLA	Mike Minor vs Josh Johnson	FLA	TBD	61.06%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Jordan Zimmerman vs Chris Young	WAS	TBD	52.26%	TBD
CIN	HOU	Mat Latos vs Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	TBD	57.89%	TBD
LAN	STL	Chad Billingsley vs Joe Kelly	STL	TBD	53.44%	TBD
COL	ARI	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	TBD	61.91%	TBD
NYA	SEA	Hiroki Kuroda vs Kevin Millwood	NYA	TBD	54.34%	TBD
SD	SF	Clayton Richard vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	55.95%	TBD

Previous Day: NA
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 22, 2012

July 22nd Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Zach Britton vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	56.43%	51.82%	- - -
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Ross Ohlendorf	COL	50.25%	49.19%	- - -
MIL	CIN	Michael Fiers vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	57.17%	56.08%	- - -
MIN	KC	Samuel Deduno vs Jeremy Guthrie	KC	56.04%	56.26%	- - -
SEA	TB	Blake Beavan vs Matt Moore	TB	63.96%	59.24%	- - -
SF	PHI	Barry Zito vs Joe Blanton	PHI	58.07%	60.12%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Dan Haren	TEX	50.25%	49.97%	- - -
TOR	BOS	Henderson Alvarez vs Jon Lester	BOS	62.62%	65.84%	- - -
CHA	DET	Phil Humber vs Jacob Turner	DET	52.27%	57.64%	- - -
LAN	NYN	Nathan Eovaldi vs John Niese	NYN	59.43%	64.66%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Jair Jurrjens vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	55.46%	57.77%	- - -
FLA	PIT	Anibal Sanchez vs Jeff Karstens	PIT	53.60%	52.03%	- - -
CHN	STL	Travis Wood vs Lance Lynn	STL	65.64%	73.59%	- - -
NYA	OAK	C.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	62.89%	58.60%	- - -
HOU	ARI	Jordan Lyles vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	67.21%	66.49%	- - -

Today's Pitching Matchups

Previous Day: -2.8 units on ML
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 21, 2012

July 21st Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister	CLE	59.27%	60.0%	- - -
COL	SD	Jeff Francis vs Kip Wells	COL	51.81%	46.5%	SD, 0.7
MIL	CIN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	50.86%	53.0%	- - -
MIN	KC	Scott Diamond vs Luis Mendoza	KC	54.65%	50.0%	MIN, 0.7
SEA	TB	Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb	TB	58.93%	61.5%	TB, 0.7
TEX	LAA	Yu Darvish vs Ervin Santana	TEX	54.23%	49.5%	LAA, 0.7
TOR	BOS	Carlos Villanueva vs Aaron Cook	BOS	55.46%	59.0%	BOS, 0.7
LAN	NYN	Chris Capuano vs Miguel Batista	LAN	53.81%	51.5%	- - -
CHN	STL	Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.36%	56.5%	- - -
SF	PHI	Matt Cain vs Cole Hamels	PHI	56.04%	54.0%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	52.94%	56.0%	WAS, 0.7
ATL	WAS	Randall Delgado vs John Lannan	WAS	52.49%	53.5%	- - -
CHA	DET	Chris Sale vs Rick Porcello	CHA	53.16%	50.5%	DET, 0.7
FLA	PIT	Carlos Zambrano vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	56.04%	60.0%	PIT, 0.7
HOU	ARI	Dallas Keuchel vs Wade Miley	ARI	63.03%	63.0%	- - -
NYA	OAK	Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker	NYA	55.06%	53.05%	- - -

Previous Day: -5.3 units (risked 9.3u) ML and +0.7 units (risked 2.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 2.95%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: -0.01%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: +9.07%

Notes: Tough day yesterday mostly due to the Nationals amazing failure last night of holding a 9-0 lead in a game that Stephen Strasburg started. The failure was not his fault but it was a truly amazing comeback by the Braves. Today, I am trying something a little bit new. I am going to just make flat ML bets on games that meet a certain threshold. I may return to the Kelly Criterion for betting at a later time, but it is time to try something different that a few readers have suggested trying. I am also rounding of the sim output to the nearest half.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Friday, July 20, 2012

July 20th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CLE	Miguel Gonzalez vs Derek Lowe	CLE	56.04%	55.96%	- - -
COL	SD	Drew Pomeranz vs Jason Marquis	SD	50.25%	54.62%	SD, 1.6u
MIL	CIN	Marco Estrada vs Homer Bailey	CIN	56.04%	48.98%	MIL, 2.4u
MIN	KC	Nick Blackburn vs Luke Hochevar	KC	57.89%	58.54%	- - -
SEA	TB	Hisashi Iwakuma vs James Shields	TB	63.17%	62.81%	- - -
TEX	LAA	Derek Holland vs Jered Weaver	LAA	58.76%	57.32%	TEX, 0.3u
TOR	BOS	Aaron Laffey vs Josh Beckett	BOS	62.76%	62.38%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Tommy Hanson vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	58.93%	63.80%	WAS, 2.2u
CHA	DET	Jake Peavy vs Justin Verlander	DET	62.76%	59.82%	CHA, 0.8u
FLA	PIT	Ricky Nolasco vs Kevin Correia	PIT	50.74%	50.80%	- - -
SF	PHI	Tim Lincecum vs Vance Worley	PHI	55.06%	56.41%	PHI, 0.4u
LAN	NYN	Aaron Harang vs Johan Santana	NYN	58.25%	58.08%	- - -
CHN	STL	Ryan Dempster vs Kyle Lohse	STL	59.27%	57.63%	CHN, 0.4u
HOU	ARI	Bud Norris vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	64.73%	61.67%	HOU, 0.8u
NYA	OAK	Ivan Nova vs Tom Milone	NYA	54.23%	52.68%	OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes: A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3. Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there. Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching. He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing. They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest. Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, July 19, 2012

July 19th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Joe Saunders vs Mike Leake	CIN	57.54%	58.09%	- - -
CHA	BOS	Jose Quintana vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	54.85%	53.18%	CHA, 0.4u
CLE	TB	Ubaldo Jimenez vs David Price	TB	61.83%	63.47%	TB, 0.6u
HOU	SD	Lucas Harrell vs Edinson Volquez	SD	59.10%	56.71%	- - -
SEA	KC	Felix Hernandez vs Wil Smith	SEA	55.06%	53.48%	- - -
SF	ATL	Madison Bumgarner vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	52.14%	- - -
NYN	WAS	R.A. Dickey vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	55.65%	54.31%	NYN, 0.3u
LAA	DET	Jerome Williams vs Max Scherzer	DET	57.36%	58.28%	DET, 0.2u
BAL	MIN	Wei-Yin Chen vs Cole DeVries	MIN	50.86%	53.58%	MIN, 0.9u
FLA	CHN	Mark Buehrle vs Paul Maholm	FLA	54.65%	50.29%	CHN, 1.4u
NYA	OAK	Freddy Garcia vs A.J. Griffin	NYA	53.38%	51.36%	OAK, 0.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
NYN vs WAS, Under 7.5 -120, 1.4 units
HOU vs SD, Over 6.5 +100, 1.0 units
NYA vs OAK, Over 7.5 -115, 2.0 units

Previous Day: +4.5 units (risked 7.1u) ML and -1.5 units (risked 1.5u) on Run Totals
Current ML ROI: 3.61%

Notes: Big win on the Tigers game yesterday with the ML bet and almost nailed the Run Total bet too but the Angels tacked on a meaningless 9th inning run for the push. Big bet today is the Yankees and Athletics going over 7.5 runs and the Cubs beating the Marlins on the ML.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

July 18th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Ian Kennedy vs Mat Latos	CIN	57.72%	55.33%	ARI, 0.7u
CHA	BOS	Pedro Hernandez vs Felix Doubront	BOS	62.05%	61.36%	- - -
CLE	TB	Justin Masterson vs Jeremy Hellickson	CLE	50.62%	49.63%	- - -
HOU	SD	Wandy Rodriguez vs Clayton Richard	SD	56.99%	54.21%	- - -
PHI	LAN	Cliff Lee vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	51.22%	51.31%	- - -
SEA	KC	Kevin Millwood vs Bruce Chen	KC	55.85%	55.40%	- - -
SF	ATL	Ryan Vogelsong vs Mike Minor	ATL	52.72%	54.74%	ATL, 0.6u
TOR	NYA	Ricky Romero vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	63.17%	63.02%	- - -
STL	MIL	Adam Wainwright vs Tyler Thornburg	STL	57.72%	54.91%	MIL, 0.8u
PIT	COL	James McDonald vs Jeremy Guthrie	PIT	54.44%	51.72%	COL, 0.8u
TEX	OAK	Colby Lewis vs Travis Blackley	TEX	55.65%	55.70%	- - -
LAA	DET	C.J. Wilson vs Doug Fister	LAA	50.86%	44.27%	DET, 2.4u
NYN	WAS	Chris Young vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	59.60%	59.56%	- - -
FLA	CHN	Josh Johnson vs Jeff Samardzija	FLA	55.26%	50.52%	CHN, 1.5u
BAL	MIN	Tommy Hunter vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	58.07%	59.09%	MIN, 0.3u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAA vs DET, Under 9 +104, 3.0 units
SEA vs KC, Under 9 +110, 1.5 units

Previous Day: +2.7 units on 9.1 units risked
Current ML ROI: 2.85%

Notes: The simulator thinks that the Vegas odds are off on the Angels vs Tigers game. The simulator thinks Fister is a stronger pitcher and Wilson a weaker pitcher than Vegas does and also believes that the game will be much lower scoring than Vegas does. The main disagreement appears to be from Fister.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

July 17th Simulations?

Sorry, no time to post today's simulation results. Life got in the way! :)

Monday, July 16, 2012

July 16th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Wade Miley vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	55.26%	55.98%	- - -
CHA	BOS	Dylan Axelrod vs Aaron Cook	BOS	55.26%	53.11%	CHA, 0.6u
CLE	TB	Zach McAllister vs Alex Cobb	TB	56.24%	55.12%	CLE, 0.3u
HOU	SD	J.A. Happ vs Kip Wells	SD	53.60%	51.20%	- - -
PHI	LAN	Joe Blanton vs Nathan Eovaldi	PHI	51.34%	52.44%	- - -
SEA	KC	Jason Vargas vs Jonathan Sanchez	KC	51.57%	54.88%	KC, 1.2u
LAA	DET	Ervin Santana vs Rick Porcello	DET	53.16%	56.33%	DET, 1.0u
TOR	NYA	Henderson Alvarez vs Phil Hughes	NYA	63.03%	59.77%	TOR, 0.8u
WAS	FLA	Edwin Jackson vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	50.74%	50.02%	- - -
BAL	MIN	Chris Tillman vs Scott Diamond	MIN	54.02%	55.25%	MIN, 0.2u
STL	MIL	Lance Lynn vs Michael Fiers	MIL	52.27%	52.96%	- - -
PIT	COL	Jeff Karstens vs Jeff Francis	COL	53.81%	49.18%	PIT, 1.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
STL vs MIL, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units
HOU vs SD, Over 7 +105, 0.5 units
CLE vs TB, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 15, 2012

July 15th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	NYA	Jered Weaver vs Ivan Nova	LAA	51.57%	48.08%	TBD
BOS	TB	Josh Beckett vs James Shields	TB	50.74%	51.52%	TBD
CHA	KC	Chris Sale vs Luis Mendoza	CHA	59.27%	56.09%	TBD
NYN	ATL	Johan Santana vs Ben Sheets	ATL	50.25%	51.15%	TBD
SD	LAN	Jason Marquis vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	60.40%	61.71%	TBD
STL	CIN	Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey	CIN	52.04%	51.80%	TBD
CLE	TOR	Derek Lowe vs Carlos Villanueva	TOR	57.36%	51.98%	TBD
WAS	FLA	Stephen Strasburg vs Ricky Nolasco	WAS	56.62%	54.60%	TBD
DET	BAL	Justin Verlander vs Miguel Gonzalez	DET	61.69%	57.28%	TBD
OAK	MIN	Jarrod Parker vs Brian Duensing	MIN	51.10%	51.29%	TBD
PIT	MIL	A.J. Burnett vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	57.89%	55.09%	TBD
ARI	CHN	Trevor Cahill vs Matt Garza	CHN	52.04%	55.77%	TBD
PHI	COL	Cole Hamels vs Drew Pomeranz	PHI	54.85%	55.56%	TBD
HOU	SF	Bud Norris vs Matt Cain	SF	68.75%	66.15%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Matt Harrison vs Hisashi Iwakuma	TEX	61.54%	61.05%	TBD

No bets today!

Previous Day: +3.5 Units
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 14, 2012

July 14th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BOS	TB	Clay Buchholz vs David Price	TB	60.08%	57.15%	BOS, 0.8u
CHA	KC	Jake Peavy vs Luke Hochevar	CHA	54.44%	55.08%	- - -
NYN	ATL	R.A. Dickey vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	51.34%	52.09%	- - -
PHI	COL	Vance Worley vs Jeremy Guthrie	PHI	54.44%	52.00%	- - -
SD	LAN	Edinson Volquez vs Aaron Harang	LAN	56.43%	58.91%	LAN, 0.8u
STL	CIN	Kyle Lohse vs Mike Leake	CIN	52.26%	56.11%	CIN, 1.1u
LAA	NYA	Jerome Williams vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	56.80%	56.12%	- - -
CLE	TOR	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Aaron Laffey	TOR	53.38%	58.22%	TOR, 1.5u
ARI	CHN	Joe Saunders vs Ryan Dempster	CHN	54.85%	55.94%	CHN, 0.2u
DET	BAL	Max Scherzer vs Wei-Yin Chen	DET	52.49%	50.07%	BAL, 0.6u
OAK	MIN	Tom Milone vs Cole DeVries	MIN	52.72%	52.13%	- - -
PIT	MIL	Kevin Correia vs Marco Estrada	MIL	57.17%	57.10%	- - -
WAS	FLA	Gio Gonzalez vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	50.74%	47.12%	WAS, 0.9u
HOU	SF	Lucas Harrell vs Tim Lincecum	SF	62.26%	59.05%	- - -
TEX	SEA	Yu Darvish vs Felx Hernandez	TEX	52.27%	52.89%	- - -

Run Total Bets:
Pirates vs Brewers, Risking 2.0 units to win 2.0 units, Over 9 runs
Nationals vs Marlins, Risking 1.0 unit to win 1.0 unit, Under 7-1/2 runs

Previous Day: 5.8 units of Run Total bets; 3.1 units won
Current ML ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Friday, July 13, 2012

July 13th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	TB	Franklin Morales vs Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	50.86%	49.68%	TBD
CHA	KC	Jose Quintana vs Bruce Chen	KC	55.65%	55.64%	TBD
NYN	ATL	Chris Young vs Tim Hudson	ATL	59.76%	61.91%	TBD
SD	LAN	Clayton Richard vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	65.22%	63.20%	TBD
STL	CIN	Adam Wainwright vs Mat Latos	CIN	53.81%	51.76%	TBD
ARI	CHN	Ian Kennedy vs Paul Maholm	ARI	56.43%	58.28%	TBD
LAA	NYA	C.J. Wilson vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	52.49%	50.50%	TBD
DET	BAL	Doug Fister vs Jason Hammel	BAL	51.57%	53.68%	TBD
CLE	TOR	Justin Masterson vs Ricky Romero	TOR	53.81%	50.25%	TBD
WAS	FLA	Jordan Zimmerman vs Josh Johnson	FLA	54.02%	58.51%	TBD
OAK	MIN	A.J. Griffin vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	56.80%	60.55%	TBD
PIT	MIL	James McDonald vs Zach Greinke	MIL	58.93%	61.74%	TBD
PHI	COL	Cliff Lee vs Chris Friedrich	PHI	59.43%	55.70%	TBD
TEX	SEA	Derek Holland vs Kevin Millwood	TEX	56.80%	54.24%	TBD
HOU	SF	Jordan Lyles vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	68.75%	69.45%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 08, 2012

July 8th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	PHI	Jair Jurrjens vs Vance Worley	PHI	55.06%	54.02%	TBD
BAL	LAA	Wei-Yin Chen vs Brad Mills	LAA	NA	50.25%	TBD
CIN	SD	Johnny Cueto vs Jason Marquis	CIN	59.76%	59.98%	TBD
MIN	TEX	Cole DeVries vs Roy Oswalt	TEX	65.40%	65.04%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Ivan Nova vs Jon Lester	BOS	53.27%	52.49%	TBD
TB	CLE	James Shields vs Zach McAllister	CLE	51.10%	48.11%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Brett Cecil vs Dylan Axelrod	CHA	55.26%	56.88%	TBD
KC	DET	Everett Teaford vs Max Scherzer	DET	62.76%	64.12%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Ryan Dempster vs John Niese	NYN	57.89%	57.98%	TBD
COL	WAS	Jeremy Guthrie vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	64.97%	62.34%	TBD
SF	PIT	Tim Lincecum vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	54.23%	55.79%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Marco Estrada vs Jordan Lyles	MIL	55.85%	51.21%	TBD
FLA	STL	Anibal Sanchez vs Joe Kelly	STL	54.65%	49.26%	TBD
SEA	OAK	Felx Hernandez vs Bartolo Colon	SEA	52.49%	49.23%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Chris Capuano vs Trevor Bauer	ARI	54.02%	57.20%	TBD

Previous Day: -1.8 units
Current ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

With Trevor Bauer pitching today against the Dodgers here is some ridiculous video of him long tossing 400? feet before he pitches.

Friday, July 06, 2012

July 7th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bet
BAL	LAA	Jason Hammel vs Jered Weaver	LAA	63.70%	58.99%	BAL, 1.4u
CIN	SD	Homer Bailey vs Clayton Richard	CIN	51.57%	49.91%	- - -
MIN	TEX	Samuel Deduno vs Derek Holland	TEX	66.10%	62.09%	MIN, 0.6u
NYA	BOS	Phil Hughes vs Felix Doubront	BOS	NA	53.71%	- - -
SEA	OAK	Jason Vargas vs Jarrod Parker	OAK	58.76%	57.34%	OAK, 0.8u
TB	CLE	Matt Moore vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	52.72%	51.87%	TB, 0.7u
TOR	CHA	Ricky Romero vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	57.72%	56.92%	- - -
FLA	STL	Carlos Zambrano vs Kyle Lohse	STL	59.10%	56.30%	STL, 0.8u
COL	WAS	Jeff Francis vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	65.93%	63.77%	- - -
SF	PIT	Ryan Vogelsong vs James McDonald	PIT	53.38%	50.74%	PIT, 0.6u
KC	DET	Bruce Chen vs Doug Fister	DET	59.76%	61.69%	DET, 1.4u
MIL	HOU	Zach Greinke vs Wandy Rodriguez	MIL	59.92%	61.06%	- - -
CHN	NYN	Jeff Samardzija vs Dillon Gee	NYN	57.72%	60.28%	NYN, 1.4u
ATL	PHI	Tommy Hanson vs Joe Blanton	PHI	50.25%	53.53%	PHI, 1.1u
LAN	ARI	Chad Billingsley vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	60.08%	58.74%	LAN, 0.2u

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 6th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Miguel Gonzalez vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	64.91%	64.68%	TBD
CIN	SD	Bronson Arroyo vs Kip Wells	CIN	53.70%	55.79%	TBD
MIN	TEX	Francisco Liriano vs Martin Perez	TEX	59.35%	59.40%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Hiroki Kuroda vs Josh Beckett	NYA	52.15%	46.09%	TBD
TB	CLE	Alex Cobb vs Justin Masterson	CLE	57.81%	61.07%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Aaron Laffey vs Jake Peavy	CHA	59.35%	63.89%	TBD
ATL	PHI	Tim Hudson vs Kyle Kendrick	ATL	53.70%	51.59%	TBD
COL	WAS	Drew Pomeranz vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	67.21%	68.19%	TBD
KC	DET	Jonathan Sanchez vs Drew Smyly	DET	64.91%	62.35%	TBD
SF	PIT	Barry Zito vs Erik Bedard	PIT	58.85%	55.28%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Travis Wood vs Johan Santana	NYN	61.83%	63.77%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Yovanni Gallardo vs J.A. Happ	MIL	56.90%	53.95%	TBD
FLA	STL	Ricky Nolasco vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.265%	57.261%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Clayton Kershaw vs Josh Collmenter	LAN	51.46%	47.42%	TBD
SEA	OAK	Kevin Millwood vs Tom Milone	OAK	60.78%	55.13%	TBD

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Trying something new today as I have a little extra time to run simulations and study output data. I am making a few prop bets for fun with some of the house money I have earned. I have been spinning my wheels on money line bets the past month and a half so I am giving this a go. Below are my prop bets for today. (And it turned out to be a dumb thing to try!)
* 4 units (-110) on Josh Willingham to have more total bases than Nelson Cruz. (Loss, -4 units)
* 2.2 units (-115) for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks to have less than 25-1/2 combined runs+hits+errors. (Loss, -2.2 units)
* 1 unit (+150) that the Astros score first against the Brewers. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Diamondbacks score first against the Dodgers (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Padres score first against the Reds. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+120) that no runs are scored in the 1st inning Twins vs Rangers. (Win, +1.2 units)

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, July 05, 2012

July 5th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Jake Arrieta vs Garrett Richards	LAA	59.60%	55.44%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Matt Garza vs Mike Minor	ATL	55.06%	63.06%	TBD
CIN	SD	Mat Latos vs Edinson Volquez	CIN	56.99%	55.57%	TBD
TB	CLE	Jeremy Hellickson vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	51.34%	60.65%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Matt Harrison vs Jose Quintana	TEX	56.04%	56.98%	TBD
MIN	DET	Scott Diamond vs Rick Porcello	DET	58.25%	56.15%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Mark Buehrle vs Michael Fiers	MIL	55.26%	54.92%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Bud Norris vs Jeff Karstens	PIT	57.17%	52.65%	TBD
SF	WAS	Matt Cain vs Ross Detwiler	SF	54.02%	54.98%	TBD
KC	TOR	Luke Hochevar vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	56.43%	46.67%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Cole Hamels vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	55.46%	50.89%	TBD
COL	STL	Chris Friedrich vs Lance Lynn	STL	65.64%	63.73%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Nathan Eovaldi vs Wade Miley	ARI	61.83%	64.75%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Independence Day Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Ervin Santana vs Derek Lowe	CLE	50.00%	52.95%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Paul Maholm vs Randall Delgado	ATL	62.12%	64.82%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Mike Leake vs Aaron Harang	CIN	56.90%	54.40%	TBD
NYA	TB	David Phelps vs David Price	TB	59.51%	55.05%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Scott Feldman vs Dylan Axelrod	TEX	52.15%	55.13%	TBD
SF	WAS	Madison Bumgarner vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	TBD	52.67%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Cliff Lee vs Chris Young	PHI	TBD	60.83%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Dallas Keuchel vs Kevin Correia	PIT	TBD	56.11%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Aaron Cook vs A.J. Griffin	OAK	54.13%	51.36%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Chris Tillman vs Hector Noesi	SEA	50.00%	50.04%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Josh Johnson vs Randy Wolf	FLA	55.56%	56.98%	TBD
MIN	DET	Brian Duensing vs Justin Verlander	DET	71.83%	63.66%	TBD
KC	TOR	Luis Mendoza vs Carlos Villanueva	TOR	59.02%	48.93%	TBD
COL	STL	Jeremy Guthrie vs Adam Wainwright	STL	65.81%	62.34%	TBD
SD	ARI	Jason Marquis vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	65.81%	69.64%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

July 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Dan Haren vs Zach McAllister	CLE	TBD	52.40%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Chris Volstad vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	64.94%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Johnny Cueto vs Chris Capuano	CIN	TBD	54.37%	TBD
NYA	TB	Ivan Nova vs James Shields	NYA	TBD	54.13%	TBD
TEX	CHA	Roy Oswalt vs Chris Sale	CHA	TBD	51.04%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Anibal Sanchez vs Marco Estrada	FLA	TBD	54.04%	TBD
SF	WAS	Tim Lincecum vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	TBD	52.60%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Lucas Harrell vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	TBD	59.12%	TBD
MIN	DET	Nick Blackburn vs Duane Below	DET	TBD	63.21%	TBD
KC	TOR	Vin Mazzaro vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	53.32%	TBD
PHI	NYN	Vance Worley vs John Niese	PHI	TBD	54.40%	TBD
COL	STL	Jeff Francis vs Joe Kelly	STL	TBD	56.09%	TBD
SD	ARI	Andrew Cashner vs Trevor Bauer	ARI	TBD	61.44%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Jon Lester vs Bartolo Colon	BOS	TBD	52.94%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Wei-Yin Chen vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	59.28%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 01, 2012

July 2nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Jered Weaver vs Ubaldo Jimenez	LAA	57.54%	57.10%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Jeff Samardzija vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	64.35%	62.83%	TBD
CIN	LAN	Homer Bailey vs Chad Billingsley	CIN	54.02%	48.91%	TBD
NYA	TB	Freddy Garcia vs Matt Moore	TB	54.03%	49.34%	TBD
HOU	PIT	Jordan Lyles vs James McDonald	PIT	62.48%	65.54%	TBD
MIN	DET	Liam Hendriks vs Doug Fister	DET	64.22%	65.70%	TBD
KC	TOR	Everett Teaford vs Ricky Romero	TOR	60.86%	55.79%	TBD
FLA	MIL	Carlos Zambrano vs Zach Greinke	MIL	61.32%	61.86%	TBD
COL	STL	Josh Outman vs Kyle Lohse	STL	65.64%	60.22%	TBD
SD	ARI	Clayton Richard vs Trevor Cahill	ARI	60.86%	61.87%	TBD
BOS	OAK	Daisuke Matsuzaka vs Jarrod Parker	BOS	50.74%	49.25%	TBD
BAL	SEA	Jason Hammel vs Hisashi Iwakuma	BAL	54.85%	53.03%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 1st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHA	NYA	Gavin Floyd vs Phil Hughes	NYA	59.02%	62.89%	TBD
DET	TB	Drew Smyly vs Alex Cobb	TB	53.05%	47.23%	TBD
NYN	LAN	Dillon Gee vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	57.81%	54.62%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Travis Blackley vs Yu Darvish	TEX	66.67%	68.62%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Gio Gonzalez vs Tim Hudson	ATL	51.46%	51.80%	TBD
PHI	FLA	Joe Blanton vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	51.46%	52.15%	TBD
CLE	BAL	Justin Masterson vs Brian Matusz	CLE	51.46%	48.00%	TBD
ARI	MIL	Josh Collmenter vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	57.45%	55.47%	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	55.95%	52.00%	TBD
PIT	STL	Erik Bedard vs Jake Westbrook	STL	62.12%	61.11%	TBD
HOU	CHN	Wandy Rodriguez vs Travis Wood	CHN	51.92%	51.69%	TBD
LAA	TOR	C.J. Wilson vs Aaron Laffey	LAA	59.02%	60.67%	TBD
SD	COL	Kip Wells vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	60.16%	63.16%	TBD
CIN	SF	Bronson Arroyo vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	57.45%	55.20%	TBD
BOS	SEA	Felix Doubront vs Jason Vargas	BOS	55.16%	55.73%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard