## Friday, May 16, 2014

### What Does The Leverage Index Look Like

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Leverage index was a statistic invented by Tom Tango that measures the importance or pressure of a situation in a baseball game. An average leverage index is 1.0 and anything higher than that indicates that the current state is an above average pressure situation. I used my simulator to determine what the average leverage index was for when there were 0, 1 and 2 outs in any inning of a game. I then used the simulator to also determine the average leverage index for each half inning of a game. The results are below. For these simulations I used a few random games so results could be slightly different running other games but the trends should be similar.  The results are that you generally see higher leverage situations the lower the number of outs are and you also tend to see higher leverage situations later in the games.  Those conclusions may be obvious but at least you can get a visual image of it.  Five millions games were simulated.

Table 1
Average Leverage Index Based on Outs State
OutsAverage LI
01.159
11.083
20.952

Table 2
Average Leverage Index Based on Half Inning of Game (0=Top of first, 1=Bottom of first etc...)
InningAverage LI
00.913
10.906
20.897
30.902
40.909
50.930
60.970
70.996
80.990
91.009
101.038
111.065
121.065
131.085
141.091
151.164
161.123
171.968
182.437
192.727

Graph of Table 2

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