## Sunday, November 20, 2011

### How Did Vegas Do Predicting MLB Games?

A good way to tell how well Vegas (and my simulator) did at predicting winners during the season is to compare blocks of games that had similar odds to each other. For example, I took the 100 games that had the highest favorite to win and calculated the average Vegas win expectancy of those games and compared across the board to my simulator and the actual results. I did this for all 100 blocks of games as well as blocks of 300 and blocks of 600. The smaller the block size the more noise you will have but the more interesting trends you will see. Below are tables of those three types of blocks of games.

100 Blocks of Games 300 Blocks of Games 600 Blocks of Games
BlocksVegSimActual  VegasSimActual  VegasSimActual
1-1000.69100.67230.6700 1-3000.66150.64760.6267 1-6000.63960.63010.6450
101-2000.65490.64080.6100 301-6000.61770.61260.6633 601-12000.58310.57620.5867
201-3000.63870.62970.6000 601-9000.59260.58580.5700 1201-18000.54860.54100.5517
301-4000.62720.62170.6500 901-12000.57360.56660.6033 1801-24140.51710.51380.5220
401-5000.61770.60590.6400 1201-15000.55690.55040.6033
501-6000.60810.61010.7000 1501-18000.54040.53170.5000
601-7000.59930.59430.6900 1801-21000.52510.51960.5033
701-8000.59270.58210.5100 2101-24140.50950.50830.5399
801-9000.58580.58100.5100
901-10000.57880.57840.5900
1000-11000.57340.55950.6100
1100-12000.56850.56200.6100
1201-13000.56290.55280.6500
1301-14000.55700.55190.6000
1401-15000.55070.54660.5600
1501-16000.54610.53600.5500
1601-17000.54020.52930.5400
1701-18000.53480.52980.4100
1801-19000.53030.53220.4600
1901-20000.52520.52300.5300
2001-21000.51990.50340.5200
2101-22000.51420.51110.5000
2201-23000.50980.51100.5400
2301-24140.50500.50350.5702

## Friday, November 18, 2011

### Matt Kemp, Rich Dude

The Dodgers signed Matt Kemp to an impressive contract this afternoon. Kemp will make \$160M over 8 years. Is this a good deal for the Dodgers? I sure hope so. A lot can go wrong in 8 years. Some of the things that should worry Dodgers fans about this contract are Kemp regressing, defense in center field and of course the always unpredictable injury bug. As good as Matt Kemp is, he by no means is an 8.7 WAR player. His "true talent" level may be unknown but the most likely level is probably around 5.5 WAR. A sizeable chunk of Kemp's value comes from his ability to play a scarce position (center field). Kemp is likely an average to slightly above average center fielder. As he gets older he may be moved out of CF to one of the corner outfield positions where more will be expected out of his bat (if not, he gets docked). The injury bug hasn't been a problem for Kemp, so he gets a pass on this one, but of course fluke injuries can happen to the most healthiest of players. That is a risk you just can't mitigate and comes with every player.

In the table below, I take a look at how I value this contract. It of course is a swag but a fun exercise nevertheless. Please feel free to ad your opinion to the mix. In this exercise I am going to start Matt Kemp off as a 5.5 WAR player for 2012 and 2013 before I slowly drop his WAR value down in each of the subsuquent years. I am setting the initial \$/WAR value at 4.5M per WAR and assuming a salary inflation rate of 4%.

Year\$/WARWARValue
20124.55.524.75
20134.685.525.74
20144.87524.34
20155.064.522.78
20165.26421.06
20175.473.519.16
20185.69317.08
20195.922.514.80
Total 33.5169.71

Assuming my parameters are correct, Kemp's value comes in close to what he is getting paid. There is a total surplus of around \$9.7M but a slight adjustment here and there to my input parameters can easily move that up or down another \$10M or so. From the looks of things, this does look like a very fair deal to me.

## Monday, November 07, 2011

### Dodgers Season, Against The Odds

Here is the compiled list of all 161 Dodgers games this season. The list is sorted by the games the Dodgers were the largest favorites in. The game in which the Dodgers were the biggest favorites was an August 13th game at Dodger Stadium against the Houston Astros. Wandy Rodriguez was on the mound for the Astros and Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 67.213% favorites to win that game in Vegas and did end up winning 6-1. If you add up the Vegas win expectancy of all 161 Dodgers games, they should have won 49.94% of their games or won 80.4 games. The Dodgers ended the season with an 82-79 record, so they slightly outperformed their Vegas expectations. Below is the entire list...

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercLAN Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
108-13-2011Wandy RodriguezClayton KershawHOULANLAN67.21367.213LAN167
205-02-11James RussellClayton KershawCHNLANLAN65.21765.217LAN257
308-14-2011Jordan LylesHiroki KurodaHOULANLAN64.85164.851LAN077
409-15-2011Ross OhlendorfDana EvelandPITLANLAN64.28664.286PIT628
509-16-2011Jeff LockeHiroki KurodaPITLANLAN64.09364.093LAN279
605-13-2011Joe SaundersClayton KershawARILANLAN63.30363.303LAN347
708-29-2011Mat LatosClayton KershawSDLANLAN61.01461.014LAN145
907-26-2011Jhoulys ChacinClayton KershawCOLLANLAN59.43259.432LAN235
1106-19-2011Bud NorrisHiroki KurodaHOULANLAN59.26759.267LAN011
1209-17-2011James McDonaldTed LillyPITLANLAN59.26759.267LAN167
1406-17-2011Brett MyersTed LillyHOULANLAN59.18459.184HOU7310
1507-07-11Dillon GeeClayton KershawNYNLANLAN58.76358.763LAN066
1608-30-2011Tim StaufferHiroki KurodaSDLANLAN58.76358.763LAN5813
1704-16-2011Kyle McClellanClayton KershawSTLLANLAN58.4258.42STL9211
1907-27-2011Aaron CookHiroki KurodaCOLLANLAN58.33358.333COL314
2008-12-11Bud NorrisNathan EovaldiHOULANLAN57.89557.895LAN011
2207-22-2011John LannanHiroki KurodaWASLANLAN57.35657.356WAS729
2304-03-11Barry ZitoHiroki KurodaSFLANLAN57.26557.265LAN5712
2409-25-2011Clayton KershawCory LuebkeLANSDLAN57.17357.173LAN628
2504-30-2011Tim StaufferHiroki KurodaSDLANLAN56.89756.897SD527
2609-14-2011Daniel HudsonClayton KershawARILANLAN56.80356.803LAN235
2806-25-2011Tyler ChatwoodHiroki KurodaLAALANLAN56.61656.616LAA617
3105-01-11Dustin MoseleyJon GarlandSDLANLAN56.1456.14SD707
3207-23-2011Tom GorzelannyTed LillyWASLANLAN56.04456.044LAN6713
3308-26-2011Esmil RogersTed LillyCOLLANLAN56.04456.044LAN167
3404-21-2011Jair JurrjensClayton KershawATLLANLAN55.8555.85LAN358
3505-29-2011Ricky NolascoClayton KershawFLALANLAN55.8555.85LAN088
3808-01-11Clayton KershawCory LuebkeLANSDLAN55.55655.556LAN628
3905-23-2011Clayton KershawBud NorrisLANHOULAN55.45755.457HOU347
4005-17-2011Randy WolfHiroki KurodaMILLANLAN55.15755.157LAN033
4106-18-2011Wandy RodriguezRubby DeLaRosaHOULANLAN55.15755.157HOU707
4205-28-2011Brian SanchesHiroki KurodaFLALANLAN54.85354.853FLA617
4306-14-2011Johnny CuetoClayton KershawCINLANLAN54.85354.853CIN325
4407-09-11Aaron HarangRubby DeLaRosaSDLANLAN54.64954.649LAN011
4507-15-2011Clayton KershawJoe SaundersLANARILAN54.64954.649LAN6410
4607-05-11Mike PelfreyTed LillyNYNLANLAN54.44254.442NYN606
4807-06-11John NieseHiroki KurodaNYNLANLAN54.23354.233NYN538
5005-18-2011Matt CainClayton KershawSFLANLAN54.23354.233SF8513
5107-04-11Chris CapuanoRubby DeLaRosaNYNLANLAN54.02354.023NYN527
5404-29-2011Clayton RichardTed LillySDLANLAN53.81153.811LAN235
5505-25-2011Ted LillyAneury RodriguezLANHOULAN53.81153.811HOU123
5708-28-2011Jhoulys ChacinNathan EovaldiCOLLANLAN53.81153.811COL7613
5809-20-2011Tim LincecumClayton KershawSFLANLAN53.59653.596LAN123
6009-12-11Joe SaundersTed LillyARILANLAN53.3853.38ARI729
6106-13-2011Bronson ArroyoHiroki KurodaCINLANLAN53.3853.38CIN6410
6207-31-2011Joe SaundersRubby DeLaRosaARILANLAN53.3853.38ARI639
6305-31-2011Clay MortensenTed LillyCOLLANLAN53.16253.162LAN2810
6404-14-2011Jaime GarciaHiroki KurodaSTLLANLAN52.8352.83STL9514
6505-04-11Carlos ZambranoTed LillyCHNLANLAN52.71952.719CHN516
6804-15-2011Kyle LOhseJon GarlandSTLLANLAN52.49452.494STL11213
6905-27-2011Javier VazquezJon GarlandFLALANLAN52.49452.494LAN347
7007-25-2011Juan NicasioRubby DeLaRosaCOLLANLAN52.49452.494LAN5813
7204-19-2011Brandon BeachyHiroki KurodaATLLANLAN52.03852.038ATL10111
7309-05-11Hiroki KurodaJohn LannanLANWASLAN51.80751.807WAS279
7506-26-2011Jered WeaverClayton KershawLAALANLAN51.151.1LAN235
7607-10-11Tim StaufferTed LillySDLANLAN50.9850.98LAN145
7706-22-2011Rick PorcelloTed LillyDETLANLAN50.61750.617DET7512
7803-31-2011Tim LincecumClayton KershawSFLANLAN50.49550.495LAN123
8104-02-11Matt CainTed LillySFLANSF5050SF10010
8404-05-11Clayton KershawJhoulys ChacinLANCOLCOL50.49549.505COL033
8505-11-11Hiroki KurodaPaul MaholmLANPITPIT50.73949.261LAN202
8608-19-2011Hiroki KurodaJason HammelLANCOLCOL50.8649.14LAN8210
8708-02-11Hiroki KurodaMat LatosLANSDSD51.148.9LAN101
8808-07-11Clayton KershawIan KennedyLANARIARI51.2248.78ARI347
9005-15-2011Ian KennedyTed LillyARILANARI51.2248.78ARI415
9109-27-2011Hiroki KurodaJarrod ParkerLANARIARI51.45648.544ARI6713
9207-01-11Hiroki KurodaTyler ChatwoodLANLAALAA51.57448.426LAN505
9306-28-2011Ted LillyBrian DuensingLANMINMIN51.57448.426MIN4610
9408-23-2011Clayton KershawKyle LohseLANSTLSTL52.15347.847LAN13215
9607-29-2011Josh CollmenterTed LillyARILANARI52.26747.733LAN9514
9906-01-11Ubaldo JimenezJon GarlandCOLLANCOL52.71947.281COL303
10004-08-11Ted LillyClayton RichardLANSDSD52.71947.281LAN426
10105-16-2011Shaun MarcumJon GarlandMILLANMIL52.71947.281MIL213
10206-04-11Clayton KershawJohnny CuetoLANCINCIN52.94147.059LAN11819
10309-28-2011Ted LillyJoe SaundersLANARIARI52.94147.059LAN7512
10505-10-11Ted LillyKevin CorreiaLANPITPIT53.27146.729LAN10313
10709-21-2011Ryan VogelsongDana EvelandSFLANSF53.3846.62SF8513
10905-08-11Clayton KershawR.A. DickeyLANNYNNYN53.70446.296LAN426
11008-03-11Ted LillyTim StaufferLANSDSD53.81146.189SD033
11105-06-11Hiroki KurodaJohn NieseLANNYNNYN53.81146.189NYN369
11204-10-11John ElyAaron HarangLANSDSD53.81146.189SD279
11308-20-2011Ted LillyEsmil RogersLANCOLCOL53.81146.189COL6713
11409-09-11Clayton KershawTim LincecumLANSFSF54.02345.977LAN213
11504-23-2011Ted LillyRyan DempsterLANCHNCHN54.02345.977CHN81018
11604-24-2011Hiroki KurodaCarlos ZambranoLANCHNCHN54.02345.977LAN7310
11806-09-11Clayton KershawJuan NicasioLANCOLCOL54.64945.351COL7916
12207-02-11Clayton KershawJered WeaverLANLAALAA55.05644.944LAA178
12306-03-11Hiroki KurodaBronson ArroyoLANCINCIN55.05644.944CIN123
12405-07-11Jon GarlandChris YoungLANNYNNYN55.45744.543NYN246
12604-18-2011Tim HudsonTed LillyATLLANATL55.65444.346LAN246
12707-16-2011Hiroki KurodaIan KennedyLANARIARI55.65444.346ARI235
12804-20-2011Derek LoweJon GarlandATLLANATL55.75244.248LAN167
12907-20-2011Clayton KershawTim LincecumLANSFSF55.8544.15LAN101
13106-24-2011Dan HarenRubby DeLaRosaLAALANLAA56.04443.956LAA8311
13205-22-2011Hiroki KurodaEdwin JacksonLANCHACHA56.80343.197CHA3811
13404-25-2011Jon GarlandRicky NolascoLANFLAFLA57.17342.827FLA459
13606-29-2011Rubby DeLaRosaScott BakerLANMINMIN57.71742.283MIN011
13808-06-11Nathan EovaldiJoe SaundersLANARIARI58.33341.667LAN538
13909-10-11Dana EvelandRyan VogelsongLANSFSF58.33341.667LAN303
14004-13-2011Ted LillyJonathan SanchezLANSFSF58.4241.58SF347
14105-20-2011Ted LillyPhil HumberLANCHACHA58.4241.58LAN6410
14208-24-2011Hiroki KurodaJaime GarciaLANSTLSTL58.59241.408LAN9413
14409-06-11Ted LillyStephen StrasburgLANWASWAS59.140.9LAN7310
14509-03-11Nathan EovaldiMike MinorLANATLATL59.18440.816LAN213
14606-11-11Ted LillyJason HammelLANCOLCOL59.18440.816LAN11718
14705-21-2011Jon GarlandMark BuehrleLANCHACHA59.51440.486CHA2911
14807-17-2011Ted LillyDaniel HudsonLANARIARI60.15939.841ARI145
15108-15-2011Ted LillyRandy WolfLANMILMIL61.16538.835MIL033
15309-26-2011Dana EvelandDaniel HudsonLANARIARI62.04937.951LAN426
15408-09-11Cliff LeeTed LillyPHILANPHI62.47737.523PHI213
15606-07-11Rubby DeLaRosaRoy OswaltLANPHIPHI62.89437.106LAN628
15706-08-11Hiroki KurodaCole HamelsLANPHIPHI63.83436.166PHI022
15806-06-11Ted LillyCliff LeeLANPHIPHI64.22235.778PHI134
15908-22-2011Nathan EovaldiChris CarpenterLANSTLSTL64.34935.651LAN213
16008-17-2011Nathan EovaldiZach GreinkeLANMILMIL65.45834.542MIL134
16106-12-11Rubby DeLaRosaUbaldo JimenezLANCOLCOL65.81234.188LAN10818

## ... Or not enough respect!?

I have taken all the Vegas odds along with empirical 2011 results to tally up which MLB starting pitchers helped their team garner better than expected results. The methodology was to take the win percentage of the games each starting pitcher pitched in, then comparing that to the expected win percentage of those same games based on the win expectancy provided by Vegas odds. If a team was a 60% Vegas favorite to win a game then that pitcher was credited with 0.6 expected wins and 0.4 expected losses. I weighted the difference between actual and expected wins based off of games started. Below are the results...

RankPitcherTeam StartsWinsLossesWins(E)Losses(E)Win PercExp Win Perc
1Ian KennedyARI35251017.8917.1171.4351.12
2Clayton KershawLAN33231017.8315.1769.754.03
3Jason MarquisWAS2416810.9013.1066.6745.43
4Justin VerlanderDET37271022.1114.8972.9759.76
5Vance WorleyPHI2116511.549.4676.1954.96
6Rick PorcelloDET33211217.0315.9763.6451.6
7Zach GreinkeMIL3122918.0312.9770.9758.17
8Aaron HarangSD28171113.2314.7760.7147.25
9Mark BuehrleCHA30191115.2314.7763.3350.78
10Luke HochevarKC31181314.2416.7658.0645.92
11Dillon GeeNYN26161012.3013.7061.5447.31
12Matt HarrisonTEX34221218.3815.6264.7154.06
13Bruce ChenKC25151011.3913.616045.55
14Randy WolfMIL35211417.7617.246050.73
15Jeff NiemannTB2415911.8012.2062.549.18
16Javier VazquezFLA32181414.8517.1556.2546.42
17Jair JurrjensATL2316712.9110.0969.5756.15
18Justin MastersonCLE33201316.9616.0460.6151.39
20James ShieldsTB34211317.9816.0261.7652.87
21Jeff KarstensPIT28151312.0515.9553.5743.05
22Kyle DrabekTOR13946.166.8469.2347.41
23Tommy MiloneWAS5502.252.7510044.95
24Max ScherzerDET36221419.2716.7361.1153.53
25Derek HollandTEX35221319.2815.7262.8655.09
26Andrew MillerBOS12936.365.647552.96
27Ivan NovaNYA29191016.4212.5865.5256.63
28Jeanmar GomezCLE10734.605.417045.95
29Kevin CorreiaPIT26141211.7214.2853.8545.07
30Micah OwingsARI4401.782.2210044.55
31Johnny CuetoCIN2415912.8111.1962.553.38
32Jered WeaverLAA33211218.8814.1263.6457.21
33Josh BeckettBOS30201017.8912.1166.6759.62
34Mike MinorATL151058.026.9866.6753.47
35Yovanni GallardoMIL36221420.1515.8561.1155.98
36Phil HughesNYA151058.226.7866.6754.81
37Jake WestbrookSTL34191517.2216.7855.8850.66
38Wandy RodriguezHOU33161714.2318.7748.4843.12
39C.J. WilsonTEX40241622.2717.736055.67
40Jerome WilliamsLAA6513.272.7383.3354.49
41Tommy HunterBAL11654.316.6954.5539.15
43Kevin MillwoodCOL9634.334.6766.6748.11
44Chris YoungNYN5412.342.668046.77
45Eric SurkampSF5412.502.508049.91
47Brandon MorrowTOR30171315.5414.4656.6751.8
48Greg ReynoldsCOL3301.581.4210052.81
49Joe SaundersARI33171615.6117.3951.5247.29
50Ryan DempsterCHN34181616.6417.3652.9448.93
51Chris NarvesonMIL28161214.6413.3657.1452.29
52Nathan EovaldiLAN6422.643.3666.6744.06
53Cliff LeePHI33221120.6412.3666.6762.56
54Alex WhiteCLE10644.655.366046.45
55Zach BrittonBAL27141312.7214.2851.8547.11
56Carlos ZambranoCHN24131111.7212.2854.1748.84
57Ryan VogelsongSF28161214.7313.2757.1452.6
58Clay BuchholzBOS14957.756.2564.2955.39
60Jake ArrietaBAL2111109.8111.1952.3846.7
61Mike LeakeCIN26151113.8612.1457.6953.3
62Matt GarzaCHN30161414.8715.1453.3349.55
63Edwin JacksonCHA35191617.9117.0954.2951.16
64Daniel HudsonARI34191517.9116.0955.8852.67
66C.C. SabathiaNYA34221220.9213.0864.7161.53
67Miguel BatistaNYN4311.932.077548.14
68Gio GonzalezOAK32181416.9315.0756.2552.9
69Matt MooreTB2200.951.0610047.25
70Luis MendozaKC2200.951.0510047.37
71John NieseNYN26131311.9614.045046
72John LannanWAS33161714.9718.0348.4845.37
73Carlos VillanuevaTOR13766.026.9853.8546.28
74Ricky RomeroTOR33181517.0315.9754.5551.62
75Ross DetwilerWAS11655.045.9654.5545.84
76Josh JohnsonFLA9635.123.8866.6756.88
77Kyle LohseSTL33181517.1315.8754.5551.92
78Jo-Jo ReyesTOR26121411.1414.8646.1542.83
79Randy WellsCHN23111210.1412.8647.8344.08
80Tommy HansonATL2314913.179.8360.8757.27
82Jason VargasSEA32151714.2117.7946.8844.41
83Anthony BassSD3211.281.7266.6742.77
84Chien-Ming WangWAS10554.305.705042.97
85Matt PalmerLAA3211.301.7066.6743.35
86Dana EvelandLAN5322.362.646047.15
87Brandon DicksonSTL1100.370.6310036.83
88Josh CollmenterARI24131112.3711.6354.1751.56
90Aaron ThompsonPIT1100.440.5610043.57
91Josh TomlinCLE26131312.4413.565047.84
92Kyle KendrickPHI14867.456.5557.1453.21
93Brian GordonNYA1100.470.5310046.51
94Jesse LitschTOR8443.484.525043.49
95Kyle McClellanSTL181089.508.5055.5652.77
96Juan NicasioCOL13766.506.5053.8550.02
97Everett TeafordKC3211.511.4966.6750.3
98Jarrod ParkerARI1100.510.4910051.22
99Sergio MitreMIL1100.510.4910051.22
100Dan RunzlerSF1100.520.4810052.04
101Alan JohnsonCOL1100.540.4610053.6
102Matt BeavenSEA1100.540.4610053.6
103Joel PineiroLAA25131212.5512.465250.18
104Graham GodfreyOAK4221.562.445039.07
105Brian BurresPIT1100.570.4310056.99
106Andrew CashnerCHN1100.580.4210057.63
107James McDonaldPIT32151714.5917.4146.8845.58
108Chris JakubauskasBAL6332.583.425043.08
109Dylan AxelrodCHA3211.601.4066.6753.18
110Vin MazzaroKC4221.602.405039.92
111Freddy GarciaNYA27151214.6312.3755.5654.17
112Jordan ZimmermanWAS26131312.6413.365048.61
113Henderson AlvarezTOR10554.655.355046.54
114Rick VandenHurkBAL2110.681.325033.94
115Jeremy HellicksonTB30161415.7114.2953.3352.36
116Ross OhlendorfPIT9453.745.2644.4441.58
117Barry ZitoSF8443.784.225047.3
118Chris CapuanoNYN31151614.7916.2148.3947.7
120Luis PerezTOR4221.832.175045.82
121Drew PomeranzCOL4221.862.145046.58
122Brian DuensingMIN27121511.9015.1044.4444.08
123Esmil RogersCOL13675.907.1046.1545.42
124Dave BushTEX2110.911.095045.43
125Jorge de la RosaCOL9544.924.0855.5654.64
126Guillermo MoscosoOAK2110119.9411.0647.6247.34
127Brian SanchesFLA2110.951.055047.45
128Alexi OgandoTEX30171316.9713.0456.6756.55
129Anthony SwarzakMIN11564.976.0345.4545.17
132Cory LuebkeSD17898.038.9747.0647.23
133Scott FeldmanTEX2111.030.975051.48
136Lance LynnSTL2111.060.945052.82
137Alfredo SimonBAL15696.068.944040.4
138Cole HamelsPHI32191319.0612.9459.3859.57
139Zach DukeARI9454.064.9444.4445.14
140Mitch TalbotCLE12575.076.9341.6742.21
141Bartolo ColonNYA26141214.0911.9153.8554.19
142Daisuke MatsuzakaBOS7434.172.8357.1459.52
143Chris TillmanBAL14686.177.8342.8644.07
144Felix HernandezSEA33171617.2715.7351.5252.33
145Mitch AtkinsBAL3121.281.7233.3342.69
147Charlie MortonPIT28121612.3015.7042.8643.94
148Matt CainSF34181618.3215.6852.9453.87
149Dan HarenLAA33181518.3414.6654.5555.57
150D.J. CarrascoNYN1010.360.64036.1
151Tim WakefieldBOS23121112.3710.6352.1753.8
152Elih VillanuevaFLA1010.400.60039.76
153Jay BuenteFLA1010.420.58042.46
154Joe BlantonPHI9454.434.5744.4449.2
155Jake PeavyCHA18999.438.575052.41
156Nick BlackburnMIN26111511.4514.5542.3144.03
157Dustin McGowanTOR3121.451.5533.3348.47
158John ElyLAN1010.460.54046.19
159Felipe PaulinoKC219129.4611.5442.8645.06
160Alex CobbTB9454.474.5344.4449.67
161Homer BaileyCIN22111111.4710.535052.14
162Armando GalarragaARI8353.484.5237.543.52
163Carl PavanoMIN33141914.4818.5242.4243.88
164Sean O'SullivanKC10464.495.514044.87
165Scott KazmirLAA1010.490.51048.78
166Tyson RossOAK7343.493.5142.8649.89
167Julio TeheranATL3121.501.5033.3349.94
168Clay HensleyFLA8353.514.4937.543.88
169Jeff LockePIT4131.512.492537.87
170Doug FisterSEA33151815.5217.4845.4547.02
171Ervin SantanaLAA34171717.5216.485051.54
172Sam LeCureCIN5232.542.464050.8
173Brandon McCarthyOAK24111311.5612.4445.8348.17
174Alex SanabiaFLA2020.591.41029.27
175Tim HudsonATL33181518.6014.4054.5556.35
176Jaime GarciaSTL37201720.6116.3954.0555.69
178Erik BedardSEA24121212.6211.385052.57
179Rodrigo LopezCHN177107.669.3441.1845.04
180Yunesky MayaWAS4131.662.342541.59
181Bud NorrisHOU31131813.6817.3241.9444.14
182Rubby DeLaRosaLAN10464.705.304046.99
183Liam HendriksMIN4131.732.272543.3
184R.A. DickeyNYN32151715.7416.2646.8849.19
185Jonathan SanchezSF199109.749.2647.3751.28
186Charles FurbushSEA10373.766.243037.57
187Brett MyersHOU33132013.7619.2439.3941.69
188Henry SosaHOU9363.785.2233.3342.05
189Francisco LirianoMIN24111311.7912.2145.8349.12
190Trevor CahillOAK33151815.7917.2145.4547.85
192Lucas HarrellHOU2020.841.16041.92
193Andy SonnanstineTB4131.842.162546.03
194Clay MortensenCOL6242.843.1633.3347.39
195Brett AndersonOAK13676.876.1346.1552.82
196Ramon OrtizCHN2020.901.10044.83
197Andrew OliverDET2020.901.10045.13
198Blake BeavanSEA14595.908.1035.7142.17
199Hector NoesiNYA2020.911.09045.32
200Bronson ArroyoCIN32151715.9216.0846.8849.74
201Colby LewisTEX35181718.9216.0851.4354.07
202Charlie FurbushDET2020.931.07046.73
203Scott BakerMIN219129.9511.0542.8647.37
204Zachary McAllisterCLE4131.962.042548.96
205Ted LillyLAN33151815.9717.0345.4548.39
206Neslon FigueroaHOU5141.993.012039.8
208Stephen StrasburgWAS5233.002.004060.08
209A.J. BurnettNYA32171518.0113.9953.1356.27
210Rich HardenOAK166107.048.9637.543.99
211Carlos CarrascoCLE2191210.0510.9542.8647.86
212John LackeyBOS28141415.0512.955053.76
213Garrett RichardsLAA3031.101.90036.69
214Tyler ChatwoodLAA24101411.1312.8741.6746.37
215Jeremy GuthrieBAL33141915.1317.8742.4245.85
217Jacob TurnerDET2021.200.80060.06
218Barry EnrightARI7253.213.7928.5745.88
219Travis WoodCIN16798.217.7943.7551.34
220Alfredo AcevesBOS4132.221.782555.59
221Tim StaufferSD31131814.3816.6241.9446.38
222Duane BelowDET3031.421.58047.48
223Mat LatosSD31141715.4715.5345.1649.9
224Aneury RodriguezHOU6152.513.4916.6741.88
225Jason HammelCOL27121513.5513.4544.4450.19
226Anthony VasquezSEA7162.624.3814.2937.36
227Phil HumberCHA26111512.6613.3442.3148.71
228Kyle DaviesKC144105.678.3328.5740.49
229Kyle WeilandBOS5142.672.332053.44
230David PriceTB35181719.7015.3051.4356.28
231Derek LoweATL34161817.7216.2847.0652.12
232Chris SchwindenNYN4041.762.24044.07
233Chris CarpenterSTL39201921.7917.2151.2855.86
234Scott DiamondMIN7162.804.2014.2940.03
235John DanksCHA27121513.9013.1044.4451.49
236Michael PinedaSEA28121613.9614.0442.8649.87
237David HuffCLE9273.975.0322.2244.06
238Gavin FloydCHA31141715.9915.0145.1651.59
239Tom GorzelannyWAS155107.017.9933.3346.76
240James RussellCHN5052.082.92041.56
241Fausto CarmonaCLE32131915.1316.8740.6347.27
242Ricky NolascoFLA33141916.1816.8242.4249.04
243Edinson VolquezCIN2081210.209.804050.99
244Josh OutmanOAK9274.204.8022.2246.65
245Clayton RichardSD186128.269.7433.3345.89
246Jon GarlandLAN9274.284.7222.2247.53
247Anibal SanchezFLA33141916.3316.6742.4249.49
248Hiroki KurodaLAN32141816.3615.6443.7551.12
249Zach StewartTOR11385.365.6427.2748.74
250Shaun MarcumMIL36171919.4716.5347.2254.08
251Tim LincecumSF34171719.6014.405057.64
252Mike PelfreyNYN33122114.6118.3936.3644.27
253Brett CecilTOR217149.7211.2833.3346.28
254Danny DuffyKC195147.7311.2726.3240.67
255Phil CokeDET144106.787.2228.5748.4
256Livan HernandezWAS29101912.7816.2234.4844.06
257Doug DavisCHN9183.815.1911.1142.3
258Aaron CookCOL175128.009.0029.4147.07
259Jordan LylesHOU153126.018.992040.07
260Casey ColemanCHN174137.029.9823.5341.27
261Jon LesterBOS31161519.0711.9351.6161.52