May 2nd Simulations

Many Thanks to US Navy Seals ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cubs	Dodgers	J.Russell vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	65.22%	58.53%	LAN 5-2
Angels	Red Sox	J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz	Angels	50.62%	49.93%	BOS 9-5
Orioles	White Sox	J.Guthrie vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	50.86%	48.23%	CHA 6-2
Rangers	Athletics	D.Holland vs B.McCarthy	Athletics	51.81%	54.52%	OAK 5-4
Astros	Reds	J.Happ vs M.Leake	Reds	62.48%	64.42%	Ppd.
Pirates	Padres	J.McDonald vs A.Harang	Padres	59.10%	63.31%	PIT 4-3
Giants	Nationals	M.Bumgarner vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	50.62%	50.26%	WAS 2-0
Brewers	Braves	Y.Gallardo vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	57.17%	55.99%	ATL 6-2
Marlins	Cardinals	C.Volstad vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.69%	68.04%	FLA 6-5
Yankees	Tigers	B.Colon vs J.Verlander	Tigers	52.72%	50.50%	NYA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.05%

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James Loney's Long And Winding Road

back towards Replacement Level

James Loney is off to an awful start offensively. What to do with him both in the short and long term is a popular topic. Not much can be done short term as Loney has very little trade value. The best you can do is to sit him against left handed pitchers and start a right handed bat at first base on those days. Long term, a tough decision will have to be made at the end of the 2011 season as to whether or not the Dodgers should tender Loney a contract or give him a raise in arbitration. Luckily for the Dodgers, that bridge does not need to be crossed for a while. Without further ado, here are some stats that James Loney would have to attain in order to bring his batting line back to replacement level for a first-baseman (wOBA - 0.312).

Name	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	Goal
J.Loney	105	22	20	1	0	1	4	0.2095	0.2364	0.2476	0.4840	0.2123	Current hitting line.
MR Walk	105	22	20	1	0	1	31	0.2095	0.3869	0.2476	0.6345	0.3123	27 straight walks.
MR Single	124	41	39	1	0	1	4	0.3306	0.3488	0.3629	0.7117	0.3136	19 straight singles.
MR Double	117	34	20	13	0	1	4	0.2906	0.3115	0.4274	0.7388	0.3134	12 straight doubles.
MR Triple	114	31	20	1	9	1	4	0.2719	0.2941	0.4649	0.7590	0.3142	9 straight triples
MR HR	112	29	20	1	0	8	4	0.2589	0.2821	0.4821	0.7642	0.3162	7 straight homeruns.
Normal	117	34	27	5	0	2	8	0.2906	0.3333	0.3846	0.7179	0.3130	12 for 12 with 7 singles, 4 doubles, 7 HRs and 4 walks.

May 1st Simulations

Joltin' Andre ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	D.Moseley vs J.Garland	Dodgers	55.65%	47.86%	LAN 7-0
Pirates	Rockies	C.Morton vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	65.10%	69.52%	PIT 8-4
Cardinals	Braves	J.Garcia vs D.Lowe	Braves	51.81%	42.95%	ATL 6-5
Tigers	Indians	P.Coke vs J.Masterson	Indians	56.71%	57.19%	CLE 5-4
Mariners	Red Sox	F.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield	Mariners	51.81%	48.51%	BOS 3-2
Rangers	Athletics	M.Harrison vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	53.16%	57.32%	OAK 7-2
Mets	Phillies	C.Young vs C.Lee	Phillies	62.48%	69.06%	TBD
Blue Jays	Yankees	J.Litsch vs I.Nova	Yankees	57.17%	69.22%	NYA 5-2
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs L.Hochevar	Royals	50.62%	46.63%	KC 10-3
Brewers	Astros	C.Narveson vs B.Norris	Brewers	53.16%	48.22%	HOU 5-0
Giants	Nationals	M.Cain vs J.Zimmerman	Giants	53.60%	50.31%	WAS 5-2
Marlins	Reds	R.Nolasco vs B.Arroyo	Reds	51.34%	57.24%	FLA 9-5
Cubs	DBacks	C.Coleman vs D.Hudson	DBacks	61.01%	62.94%	ARI 4-3
Orioles	White Sox	Z.Britton vs G.Floyd	White Sox	53.38%	50.46%	BAL 6-4
Angels	Rays	T.Chatwood vs A.Cobb	Rays	57.45%	53.95%	LAA 6-5

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 30th Simulations

The Streak Continues ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	56.08%	49.71%	SD 5-2
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	TBD	61.98%	PHI 2-1
Giants	Nationals	J.Sanchez vs J.Lannan	Giants	TBD	51.93%	SF 2-1
Blue Jays	Yankees	K.Drabek vs A.Burnett	Yankees	TBD	64.39%	NYA 5-4
Angels	Rays	J.Pineiro vs J.Shields	Rays	TBD	54.27%	TB 2-1
Pirates	Rockies	P.Maholm vs J.Hammel	Rockies	TBD	55.79%	COL 4-1
Rangers	Athletics	C.Lewis vs B.Anderson	Athletics	TBD	65.28%	TEX 11-2
Marlins	Reds	J.Johnson vs E.Volquez	Marlins	TBD	58.16%	CIN 4-3
Mariners	Red Sox	D.Fister vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	TBD	57.57%	SEA 2-0
Orioles	White Sox	C.Tillman vs P.Humber	White Sox	TBD	54.95%	BAL 6-2
Tigers	Indians	R.Porcello vs A.White	Tigers	TBD	52.59%	CLE 2-1
Cardinals	Braves	J.Westbrook vs B.Beachy	Braves	TBD	55.54%	STL 3-2
Twins	Royals	B.Duensing vs S.O'Sullivan	Twins	TBD	53.49%	KC 11-2
Brewers	Astros	R.Wolf vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	TBD	54.33%	HOU 2-1
Cubs	DBacks	M.Garza vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	TBD	54.17%	CHN 5-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.99%

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April 29th Simulations

Dodgers Hoping Padres Keep Sucking ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	C.Richard vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	54.34%	46.00%	TBD
Rangers	Athletics	C.Wilson vs T.Cahill	Athletics	51.69%	48.31%	TBD
Brewers	Astros	S.Marcum vs B.Myers	Astros	56.52%	51.51%	MIL 5-0
Cubs	DBacks	C.Zambrano vs A.Galarraga	Cubs	51.46%	53.46%	CHN 4-2
Twins	Royals	S.Baker vs B.Chen	Royals	50.74%	48.14%	KC 4-3
Mariners	Red Sox	J.Vargas vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	66.10%	57.30%	SEA 5-4
Pirates	Rockies	K.Correia vs J.Chacin	Rockies	64.79%	68.57%	PIT 3-0
Cardinals	Braves	C.Carpenter vs T.Hudson	Braves	51.92%	48.38%	STL 5-3
Tigers	Indians	M.Scherzer vs J.Gomez	Tigers	52.38%	56.40%	CLE 9-5
Angels	Rays	E.Santana vs D.Price	Rays	57.45%	54.22%	LAA 8-5
Giants	Nationals	T.Lincecum vs J.Marquis	Giants	61.24%	55.71%	WAS 3-0
Blue Jays	Yankees	R.Romero vs F.Garcia	Yankees	59.02%	61.20%	TOR 5-3
Mets	Phillies	M.Pelfrey vs V.Worley	Phillies	TBD	51.72%	PHI 10-3
Orioles	White Sox	J.Arrieta vs J.Danks	White Sox	59.84%	52.61%	BAL 10-4
Marlins	Reds	J.Vazquez vs T.Wood	Reds	58.85%	68.02%	FLA 7-6

Seasonal ROI: -1.03%

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April 28th Simulations

Dodger Ownership Rests In Peace ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rays	Twins	J.Hellickson vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.38%	54.02%	TB 15-3
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs A.Swarzak	Rays	52.38%	45.62%	TB 6-1
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Morrow vs A.Ogando	Rangers	60.00%	59.43%	TOR 5-2
Cardinals	Astros	K.McClellan vs N.Figueroa	Cardinals	57.26%	58.88%	STL 11-7
Royals	Indians	K.Davies vs F.Carmona	Indians	60.78%	55.58%	CLE 8-2
White Sox	Yankees	E.Jackson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	66.10%	68.46%	NYA 12-3
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Lester vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	63.77%	60.71%	BOS 6-2
Giants	Pirates	R.Vogelsong vs J.Karstens	Pirates	51.92%	51.05%	SF 5-2
Mariners	Tigers	M.Pineda vs B.Penny	Tigers	53.27%	54.50%	SEA 7-2
Cubs	DBacks	R.Dempster vs B.Enright	Cubs	52.15%	47.94%	ARI 11-2
Mets	Nationals	C.Capuano vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	51.46%	58.22%	WAS 4-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.06%

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April 27th Simulations

Pitching Wins Championships, Shitty Defense Loses Games ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Billingsley vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	53.92%	57.76%	LAN 5-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.24%	63.01%	TEX 7-6
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	51.92%	48.29%	NYN 6-3
Mariners	Tigers	E.Bedard vs J.Verlander	Tigers	66.10%	63.60%	SEA 10-1
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.90%	59.46%	TB 8-2
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs M.Latos	Braves	50.98%	48.79%	ATL 7-0
Cardinals	Astros	K.Lohse vs J.Happ	Cardinals	56.71%	64.05%	STL 6-5
Athletics	Angels	T.Ross vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.64%	OAK 2-1
Reds	Brewers	S.LeCure vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.51%	57.02%	CIN 7-6
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs J.Guthrie	Red Sox	59.68%	50.95%	BAL 5-4
Giants	Pirates	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Giants	54.75%	54.04%	PIT 2-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Coleman	Rockies	57.45%	56.62%	Ppd.
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs B.Colon	Yankees	59.68%	59.40%	NYA 3-1
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs J.Saunders	Phillies	60.16%	59.23%	PHI 8-4
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs J.Tomlin	Indians	57.26%	55.32%	CLE 7-2

Seasonal ROI: -2.10%

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April 26th Simulations

Hook, Line and Sinker Ball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Kershaw vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	57.08%	51.13%	FLA 4-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.delaRosa vs J.Russell	Rockies	57.63%	52.85%	COL 4-3
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs A.Harang	Braves	52.38%	40.41%	ATL 8-2
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.71%	56.84%	Ppd.
Royals	Indians	L.Hochevar vs J.Masterson	Indians	59.84%	63.99%	CLE 9-4
Phillies	DBacks	R.Oswalt vs D.Hudson	Phillies	54.55%	51.95%	ARI 7-5
Mets	Nationals	C.Young vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	53.70%	56.06%	NYN 6-4
Athletics	Angels	B.McCarthy vs T.Chatwood	Athletics	53.92%	57.70%	LAA 8-3
White Sox	Yankees	G.Floyd vs I.Nova	Yankees	55.56%	62.48%	CHA 3-2
Mariners	Tigers	F.Hernandez vs P.Coke	Mariners	53.05%	51.86%	SEA 7-3
Cardinals	Astros	J.Garcia vs B.Norris	Cardinals	56.33%	61.14%	HOU 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	C.Buchholz vs Z.Britton	Orioles	55.75%	42.48%	BAL 4-1
Giants	Pirates	M.Cain vs C.Morton	Giants	57.08%	57.46%	SF 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs M.Estrada	Brewers	52.83%	44.46%	MIL 3-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Litsch vs M.Harrison	Rangers	62.41%	60.01%	TOR 10-3

Seasonal ROI: -0.08%

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April 25th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Reel In For Real Marlins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Garland vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	57.63%	61.42%	FLA 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	P.Humber vs I.Nova	Yankees	65.03%	67.87%	CHA 2-0
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs D.Moseley	Braves	55.16%	50.82%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	K.Drabek vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.02%	58.42%	TOR 6-4
Athletics	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.35%	57.45%	LAA 5-0
Reds	Brewers	B.Arroyo vs C.Narveson	Brewers	54.55%	51.14%	CIN 9-5
Phillies	DBacks	C.Lee vs I.Kennedy	Phillies	59.68%	58.31%	ARI 4-0
Rockies	Cubs	E.Rogers vs M.Garza	Cubs	55.56%	57.37%	COL 5-3
Nationals	Pirates	J.Lannan vs P.Maholm	Pirates	53.70%	54.02%	PIT 4-2

Below are the results from the simulation of Monday's Dodgers/Marlins game. Keep in mind it is nearly impossible to correctly project out the exact lineups this far out in advance, but they should hopefully be pretty close.

Dodgers Hitting Results
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Jamey Carroll	4.4	1.25	0.826	0.301	0.046	0.076	0.289	0.261	0.896	0.327	0.342
Casey Blake	4.28	1.169	0.695	0.314	0.02	0.139	0.418	0.248	1.054	0.331	0.334
Andre Ethier	4.157	1.221	0.715	0.313	0.012	0.181	0.527	0.365	0.94	0.368	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.19	0.743	0.246	0.018	0.183	0.586	0.282	1.078	0.357	0.356
Juan Uribe	4.063	1.062	0.62	0.28	0.026	0.135	0.514	0.217	0.885	0.319	0.305
James Loney	3.924	1.13	0.691	0.304	0.016	0.119	0.473	0.287	0.727	0.347	0.329
Jerry Sands	3.832	0.985	0.662	0.19	0.007	0.127	0.439	0.218	0.973	0.308	0.314
Rod Barajas	3.653	0.815	0.514	0.184	0.006	0.11	0.364	0.299	1.059	0.286	0.284
Pitchers Spot	3.72	0.46	0.366	0.077	0.003	0.014	0.13	0.118	1.842	0.141	0.239

Dodgers Pitching Results
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jon Garland	5.65	3.943	2.173	6.807	0.647	93.501	4.447
Johnathan Broxton	0.393	0.468	0.154	0.358	0.035	6.467	3.156
Matt Guerrier	0.434	0.325	0.122	0.489	0.036	6.878	3.635
Mike MacDougal	0.714	0.544	0.314	0.798	0.063	11.885	4.146
Blake Hawksworth	0.402	0.298	0.183	0.48	0.057	6.811	4.925
Vicente Padilla	0.691	0.606	0.248	0.783	0.084	11.388	4.107
Kenley Jansen	0.334	0.403	0.161	0.324	0.04	5.717	3.803
Lance Cormier	0.018	0.011	0.01	0.022	0.002	0.314	5.1

Seasonal ROI: -0.01%

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April 24th Simulations

Dodgers Dogs In Rubber Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	H.Kuroda vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	54.55%	59.94%	LAN 7-3
White Sox	Tigers	J.Danks vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	54.55%	56.79%	DET 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	U.Jimenez vs J.Johnson	Marlins	57.63%	55.88%	FLA 6-3
DBacks	Mets	A.Galarraga vs J.Niese	Mets	57.98%	63.88%	NYN 8-4
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lackey vs M.Palmer	Red Sox	57.26%	58.82%	BOS 7-0
Nationals	Pirates	J.Marquis vs K.Correia	Pirates	55.56%	52.88%	WAS 6-3
Royals	Rangers	B.Chen vs C.Wilson	Rangers	67.21%	72.70%	TEX 8-7
Reds	Cardinals	S.LeCure vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	52.61%	53.04%	STL 3-0
Astros	Brewers	W.Rodriguez vs R.Wolf	Brewers	59.51%	51.21%	MIL 4-1
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Shields vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.52%	58.49%	TB 2-0
Phillies	Padres	R.Halladay vs W.LeBlanc	Phillies	65.28%	56.42%	PHI 3-1
Indians	Twins	C.Carrasco vs C.Pavano	Twins	54.55%	55.15%	MIN 4-3
Athletics	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	Athletics	55.56%	53.99%	OAK 5-2
Braves	Giants	B.Beachy vs J.Sanchez	Giants	55.95%	65.58%	ATL 9-6
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs C.Tillman	Yankees	54.34%	50.70%	NYA 6-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 23rd Simulations

Lilly Longs For Lull In Longball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	T.Lilly vs R.Dempster	Cubs	54.55%	60.04%	CHN 10-8
Rays	Blue Jays	D.Price vs B.Morrow	Rays	53.49%	51.76%	TB 6-4
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen	Yankees	63.24%	63.57%	NYA 15-3
Phillies	Padres	J.Blanton vs T.Stauffer	Padres	50.00%	55.15%	PHI 4-2
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs B.Duensing	Twins	54.95%	57.60%	MIN 10-3
Red Sox	Angels	D.Matsuzaka vs E.Santana	Angels	52.15%	49.58%	LAA 5-0
Braves	Giants	T.Hudson vs T.Lincecum	Giants	60.00%	64.95%	ATL 5-2
Royals	Rangers	K.Davies vs A.Ogando	Rangers	66.44%	62.20%	TEX 3-1
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs J.Vazquez	Rockies	50.74%	57.72%	COL 3-1
White Sox	Tigers	E.Jackson vs B.Penny	White Sox	51.46	48.86%	DET 9-0
Athletics	Mariners	T.Cahill vs J.Vargas	Athletics	53.27%	48.88%	OAK 9-1
DBacks	Mets	B.Enright vs D.Gee	Mets	55.16%	59.75%	NYN 6-4
Astros	Brewers	B.Myers vs S.Marcum	Brewers	61.24%	58.17%	HOU 9-6
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	53.27%	47.71%	PIT 7-2
Reds	Cardinals	T.Wood vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.84%	53.94%	CIN 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

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April 22nd Simulations

Dodgers Blow Into Chicago ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	C.Billingsley vs C.Coleman	Dodgers	50.74%	50.91%	LAN 13-2
Braves	Giants	T.Hanson vs M.Bumgarner	Braves	51.22%	46.27%	ATL 4-1
Astros	Brewers	N.Figueroa vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	66.22%	60.25%	MIL 14-7
Rockies	Marlins	J.Chacin vs A.Sanchez	Rockies	51.46%	54.33%	FLA 4-1
Reds	Cardinals	E.Volquez vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	56.71%	52.46%	STL 4-2
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	52.38%	47.15%	Ppd.
Diamondbacks	Mets	J.Saunders vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	55.95%	60.07%	NYN 4-1
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lester vs D.Haren	Red Sox	51.69%	52.56%	BOS 4-3
White Sox	Tigers	M.Buehrle vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.63%	63.43%	DET 9-3
Athletics	Mariners	T.Ross vs M.Pineda	Mariners	55.95%	53.04%	SEA 4-0
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs B.Duensing	Twins	53.27%	57.51%	Ppd.
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen	Yankees	63.24%	62.48%	Ppd.
Phillies	Padres	C.Hamels vs C.Richard	Phillies	53.70%	49.62%	PHI 2-0
Royals	Rangers	J.Francis vs D.Holland	Rangers	61.24%	61.80%	TEX 11-6
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Hellickson vs J.Reyes	Rays	51.92%	49.58%	TOR 6-4

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 21st Simulations

This Bud's For Selig ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.33%	58.87%	LAN 5-3
Twins	Orioles	S.Baker vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	56.52%	63.85%	MIN 3-1
Nationals	Cardinals	T.Gorzelanny vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.54%	63.60%	STL 5-0
Diamondbacks	Reds	D.Hudson vs M.Leake	Reds	55.16%	58.29%	CIN 7-4
Athletics	Mariners	B.McCarthy vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	58.16%	55.17%	SEA 1-0
Red Sox	Angels	J.Beckett vs T.Chatwood	Red Sox	61.09%	60.21%	BOS 4-2
Indians	Royals	J.Tomlin vs S.O'Sullivan	Indians	51.69%	49.69%	KC 3-2
Pirates	Marlins	J.McDonald vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.56%	53.35%	FLA 9-5
Phillies	Padres	R.Oswalt vs M.Latos	Phillies	51.98%	48.66%	PHI 3-0
White Sox	Rays	G.Floyd vs J.Niemann	White Sox	50.74%	54.47%	CHA 9-2
Astros	Mets	J.Happ vs C.Capuano	Mets	55.56%	60.17%	NYN 9-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.91%

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April 20th Simulations

Battle Of The Innings Eaters ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	Derek Lowe vs Jon Garland	Braves	57.26%	56.57%	LAN 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Chris Narveson vs Cliff Lee	Phillies	66.67%	66.71%	PHI 4-3
Nationals	Cardinals	Jordan Zimmerman vs Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	62.26%	66.48%	STL 5-3
Red Sox	Athletics	Clay Buchholz vs Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	52.38%	60.38%	BOS 5-3
Astros	Mets	Bud Norris vs R.A. Dickey	Mets	59.18%	62.14%	HOU 4-3
Pirates	Marlins	Charlie Morton vs Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	60.78%	59.11%	FLA 6-0
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs Matt Garza	Cubs	57.81%	61.95%	CHN 2-1
Yankees	Blue Jays	Bartolo Colon vs Brett Cecil	Yankees	53.49%	56.40%	NYA 6-2
Giants	Rockies	Matt Cain vs Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	54.55%	55.55%	COL 10-2
Indians	Royals	Justin Masterson vs Luke Hochevar	Indians	52.38%	55.42%	CLE 7-5
White Sox	Rays	Phil Humber vs Wade Davis	Rays	55.56%	55.15%	TB 4-1
Angels	Rangers	Jered Weaver vs Matt Harrison	Rangers	51.22%	52.60%	LAA 4-1
Diamondbacks	Reds	Ian Kennedy vs Bronson Arroyo	Reds	60.00%	60.78%	ARI 3-1
Twins	Orioles	Nick Blackburn vs Zach Britton	Orioles	57.45%	62.33%	BAL 5-4
Tigers	Mariners	Rick Porcello vs Erik Bedard	Tigers	50.00%	50.38%	DET 3-2
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.35%	54.81%	WAS 8-6
Padres	Cubs	Aaron Harang vs James Russell	Padres	52.61%	49.45%	SD 5-4

Seasonal ROI: 0.68%

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April 19th Simulations

Dodgers Undefeated With Jerry Sands ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	B.Beachy vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.61%	55.62%	ATL 10-1
Indians	Royals	Jeanmar Gomez vs Bruce Chen	Royals	53.27%	52.54%	KC 5-4
Yankees	Blue Jays	A.J. Burnett vs Kyle Drabek	Yankees	50.98%	54.11%	TOR 6-5
Diamondbacks	Reds	Armando Galarraga vs Sam LeCure	Reds	60.00%	65.87%	ARI 5-4
Red Sox	Athletics	John Lackey vs Brett Anderson	Athletics	53.05%	62.65%	OAK 5-0
Tigers	Mariners	Phil Coke vs Doug Fister	Tigers	51.69%	45.32%	SEA 13-3
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.68%	53.82%	Ppd.
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs James Russell	Cubs	53.05%	55.02%	Ppd.
Giants	Rockies	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	59.68%	54.06%	SF 6-3
Twins	Orioles	Carl Pavano vs Jake Arrieta	Orioles	50.74%	60.91%	BAL 11-0
Astros	Mets	Wandy Rodriguez vs John Niese	Mets	55.56%	55.68%	HOU 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	Phillies	67.21%	68.07%	MIL 9-0
Pirates	Marlins	Paul Maholm vs Josh Johnson	Marlins	65.16%	61.96%	FLA 6-0
Angels	Rangers	Matt Palmer vs Colby Lewis	Rangers	63.37%	64.88%	LAA 15-4
White Sox	Rays	John Danks vs James Shields	White Sox	51.22%	49.95%	TB 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.23%

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Jerry Sands Major League Debut Game

April 18th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	T.Hudson vs T.Lilly	Braves	55.56%	50.50%	LAN 4-2
Skinny: Expect a lot of ugly effectiveness from Tim Hudson who pounds the strike zone and gets a ton of ground balls. The Dodgers will need some BABIP luck to beat Hudson. The Braves meanwhile will be looking to blast one of the many fly balls that Ted Lilly serves up into the outfield bleachers.
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs E.Rogers	Giants	55.75%	49.60%	SF 8-1
Padres	Cubs	T.Stauffer vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	58.33%	52.50%	CHN 1-0
Angels	Rangers	E.Santana vs C.Wilson	Rangers	59.02%	65.02%	TEX 7-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.80%

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Try Now We Can Only Lose

April 17th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs C.Billingsley	Cardinals	55.16%	50.09%	LAN 2-1

Interesting simulation tidbits:
Most HRs in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Most triples in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Carroll
Most doubles in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Blake
Most hits in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Strikeouts/Walks C.Carpenter: 5.3/1.5
Strikeouts/Walks C.Billingsley: 6.1/1.9


Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

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Clayton And Chad, The Rest Are Bad!

April 16th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	K.McClellan vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.85%	61.55%	STL 9-2

Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

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Dodgers Pitching Looking For A Refund

April 15th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	K.Lohse vs J.Garland	Dodgers	53.05%	51.06%	STL 11-2
Giants	Diamondbacks	M.Cain vs D.Hudson	Giants	53.05%	48.29%	SF 5-2
Padres	Astros	A.Harang vs J.Happ	Astros	51.92%	50.53%	SD 4-2
Cubs	Rockies	M.Garza vs J.Chacin	Rockies	59.18%	59.86%	COL 5-0
Angels	White Sox	J.Weaver vs P.Humber	Angels	55.36%	58.16%	LAA 4-3
Blue Jays	Red Sox	B.Cecil vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	63.90%	55.14%	TOR 7-6

Seasonal ROI: Negative infinity

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Cherry Garcia or Kreamy Kuroda

April 14th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	J.Garcia vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	55.16%	45.35%	STL 9-5
Skinny: Jaime Garcia is one of the pitchers that my simulator loves much more than the betting public obviously does. Let's see who is right!
Results: Well, the simulator called this result right. Of course one game sample sizes mean squat. But I'll take it.

Seasonal ROI: -1.28%

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April 13, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 13th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez	Giants	58.85%	62.46%	SF 4-3
Skinny: Simulator sees some value in these odds for the Giants. Will come down to which pitcher can keep their fly balls in the park better.
Results: Ted Lilly couldn't keep his fly balls in the park and Giants bullpen was lights out.

Seasonal ROI: 6.34%

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April 12th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 12th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum	Giants	62.55%	63.76%	SF 5-4
Skinny: Pretty good agreement between Vegas and Sim. Lincecum outclasses Billingsley and along with HFA is the difference maker.
Results: Game went according to the book as 9th most likely score hits.
Phillies	Nationals	J.Blanton vs L.Hernandez	Phillies	54.13%	48.17%	WAS 7-4
Skinny: Even with R.Zimmerman out the Nationals have an even shot of winning this home game against Phillies worst starter.
Results: Big win for the simulator here as it nails this one.
Indians	Angels	F.Carmona vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.47%	LAA 2-0
Skinny: Decent pitching matchup with edge to Angels. Simulator thinks Angels are over bet a little.
Results: Haren brings the Indians back down to reality.
Cubs	Astros	J.Russell vs B.Myers	Astros	53.49%	54.43%	HOU 11-2
Skinny: Cubs put a replacement level pitcher out there on the road against one of the Astros best pitchers. Home field advantage is the difference between being favored or a dog. Pennies on the Astros.
Results: Astros eat up replacement level pitcher.
Reds	Padres	S.LeCure vs C.Richard	Padres	53.05%	54.66%	CIN 8-2
Skinny: Should be a pretty close, low scoring game (7 runs?). Padres favored by their HFA margin. Pennies on the Padres.
Results: Well pitched low scoring game just like the sim said, until the Padres bullpen bombs in extra frames.
Athletics	White Sox	T.Cahill vs E.Jackson	White Sox	54.55%	50.12%	CHA 6-5
Skinny: Will the clock strike midnight on Edwin Jackson today? Simulator says to bet on it, as it's not ready to jump completely on his bandwagon yet.
Results: Athletics were able to get to Edwin Jackson but the bullpen couldn't hold on to a slim lead.
Rays	Red Sox	D.Price vs J.Lester	Red Sox	62.96%	57.44%	TB 3-2
Skinny: The starting pitching matchup is pretty even. HFA and offense give the Red Sox a decent sized edge, but the Rays defense cuts into that edge a little. Too much Red Sox love in the ML.
Results: Nice payout for a David Price pitched game, even if it was on the road in Boston against J.Lester.
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs B.Penny	Rangers	55.95%	56.91%	DET 5-4
Skinny: A very favorable pitching matchup for the Rangers. A pretty fair line. Pennies on the Rangers.
Results: Even game. Texas was let down by their bullpen and losing Josh Hamilton to injury early in the game didn't help matters.
Marlins	Braves	C.Volstad vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	60.69%	TBD
Skinny: A likely win for the Braves but slightly over bet. Take the underdog and hope for the best.
Results: C.Volstad dug himself a hole early and Tommy Hanson was just too tough.
Royals	Twins	J.Francis vs B.Duensing	Twins	58.33%	61.60%	MIN 4-3
Skinny: Never fun to take a pitcher like Duensing at -140 (ML) but in this case you pretty much have to. Prepare to sweat it out.
Results: Twins fans definitely had to sweat this one out.
Orioles	Yankees	C.Tillman vs A.Burnett	Yankees	62.96%	59.35%	Rained out.
Skinny: You would've made a lot of money betting the Orioles every game so far. Let's see if the trend continues against the Yankees. Sim says to ride the horse again.
Results:
Rockies	Mets	E.Rogers vs J.Niese	Mets	52.38%	55.76%	Rained out.
Skinny: A good value play on the Mets here. Just be prepared to sweat this one out as it should be a close game.
Results:
Brewers	Pirates	S.Marcum vs K.Correia	Brewers	53.27%	45.89%	TBD
Skinny: Simulator showing some love for the 5-5 Pirates here. I would probably split the difference here making a moderate wager on Pirates.
Results: Rained out.
Cardinals	Diamondbacks	C.Carpenter vs A.Galarraga	Cardinals	57.63%	60.99%	ARI 13-8
Skinny: Big pitching mismatch here. Only big worry is HFA for the Diamondbacks. Sim still says to make a solid wager here on the Cardinals.
Results: Definitely did not expect to see the Diamondbacks shell Carpenter.

Seasonal ROI: 0.98%

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The table of likely game scores is here.

April 11th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

April 11th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	51.92%	51.33%	LAN 6-1
Skinny: Very good agreement on the likely outcome of this game (a toss up). Kershaw is obviously the better pitcher, but the Giants even things out with the slightly better offense and the home field advantage.
Results: Nicely done Mr. Kershaw. The difference in class between the two starting pitchers definitely showed tonight.
Rangers	Tigers	A.Ogando vs J.Verlander	Tigers	56.52%	61.38%	DET 2-0
Skinny: The Rangers are definitely a hot team right now and the betting public seems to be buying into this as their new true talent baseline. The simulator isn't drinking the kool-aid yet and puts its money on Verlander, the obvious superior starting pitcher.
Results: Ogando matched Verlander pitch for pitch. Another sample in Ogando's sample size will help predicting his outcomes going forward. A loss for the simulator.
Indians	Angels	M.Talbot vs T.Chatwood	Angels	56.52%	51.41%	CLE 4-0
Skinny: The Angels leadoff man and regular SS is on the DL and they are putting a replacement level pitcher on the mound. The Indians aren't as good as the Mariners made them look this weekend but are probably a good bet here given the circumstances.
Results: This one was pretty easy to call. Minor league pitcher who saw his peripherals drop as he moved up the minor league chain. Only surprise is that the Angels got blanked, but those things happen.
Reds	Padres	E.Volquez vs M.Latos	Padres	52.61%	56.63%	CIN 3-2
Skinny: The Edinson Volquez HR/K/BB machine rolls into San Diego where the Padres Mat Latos will be making his first start of the season. Taking the Padres here, Latos is too good.
Results: The good (but not great) Volquez showed up and Mat Latos was generous with the long ball. Ramon Hernandez killed the Padres with his throwing arm tonight. Opportunities were there, tough loss.
Blue Jays	Mariners	J.Litsch vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	62.96%	63.75%	SEA 8-7
Skinny: As bad as the Mariners offense is, one does a double-take when seeing the Mariners as such large favorites. The first thing that comes to my mind is the standard operation procedure for how the Mariners will likely lose this game. Hmmmm, 1-1 tie - Felix gets pulled late in the game and Mariners lose 2-1 in 10 innings. That sounds about right! :) In all seriousness, simulator says put a penny or two on the Mariners.
Skinny: In what was probably a game result in the 0.001th percentile of likely outcomes the Mariners accepted a gift from the Toronto bullpen.
Athletics	White Sox	D.Braden vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	54.55%	50.93%	OAK 2-1
Skinny: Lots of ground balls and good infield defense is what makes Dallas Braden so successful and it should be good enough to make this game a toss-up. Given those odds, simulator throws a couple pennies towards the Athletics.
Results: Great pitching duel. Buehrle only gave up 2 hits on 19 batted balls in play. Oakland's bullpen was the difference maker. Simulator pockets a few pennies.
Rockies	Mets	J.Hammel vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	52.83%	48.97%	COL 7-6
Skinny: With a bad first start Jason Hammel's true talent (back to back 3.70 FIPs in Colorado) level slips through the cracks here. A toss-up game, but given the odds you have to take the Rockies.
Results: Hammel slightly outpitched Pelfrey and Tulowitzki's bomb came at a good time. A win for the simulator.

Seasonal ROI: 1.01%

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April 10th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 10th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	J.Ely vs A.Harang	Padres	54.34%	56.71%	SD 7-2

Seasonal ROI: 2.58%

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April 9th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 9th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	H.Kuroda vs D.Moseley	Dodgers	53.05%	51.34%	LAN 4-0
Nationals	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs C.Capuano	Mets	56.33%	47.34%	NYN 8-4

Seasonal ROI: 6.44%

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Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 8th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	T.Lilly vs C.Richard	Padres	51.22%	55.88%	LAN 4-2
Rays	Angels	K.Drabek vs E.Santana	Angels	54.95%	57.20%	TOR 3-2

Seasonal ROI: 17.83%

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April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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April 6th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 6th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.92%	55.30%	COL 7-5
Angels	Rays	D.Haren vs J.Hellickson	Angels	51.46%	53.55%	LAA 5-1

Seasonal ROI: 28.84%

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April 5th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 5th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Chacin	Rockies	50.00%	51.71%	COL 3-0
Angels	Rays	J.Weaver vs J.Niemann	Angels	50.50%	53.55%	LAA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 32.68%

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April 4th Baseball Simulations

April 4th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Orioles	R.Porcello vs J.Arrieta	Orioles	55.16%	57.00%	BAL 5-1
Braves	Brewers	B.Beachy vs C.Narveson	Brewers	50.00%	53.21%	ATL 2-1
Twins	Yankees	S.Baker vs I.Nova	Yankees	59.35%	59.21%	NYA 4-3
Mariners	Rangers	E.Bedard vs D.Holland	Rangers	60.63%	58.91%	TEX 6-4
Pirates	Cardinals	C.Morton vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	59.84%	60.58%	PIT 4-3

Seasonal ROI: 33.39%

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April 3rd, Giants vs Dodgers Simulation

April 3rd Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	57.45%	57.50%	LAN 7-5
Skinny: Dodgers advantage in this game is mostly due to the starting pitching matchup. Zito has the tendancy to walk more batters and give up more HRs than Kuroda.

Seasonal ROI: 23.54%

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April 2nd Simulations - Sweep Time?

April 2nd Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs T.Lilly	Giants	50.00%	51.14%	SF 10-0

Seasonal ROI: -3.80%

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April 1st, Baseball Simulations

April 1st Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Units Bet	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	J.Sanchez vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.55%	57.97%	LAN, 0.9	LAN 4-3
Mariners	Athletics	F.Hernandez vs T.Cahill	Athletics	52.83%	53.06%	0.0	SEA 6-2
Astros	Phillies	B.Myers vs R.Halladay	Phillies	71.43%	64.32%	HOU, 1.0	PHI 5-4
Twins	Blue Jays	C.Pavano vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	55.75%	54.23%	0.0	TOR 13-3
Mets	Marlins	M.Pelfrey vs J.Johnson	Marlins	62.83%	56.14%	NYN, 1.1	FLA 6-2
White Sox	Indians	M.Buehrle vs F.Carmona	Indians	50.00%	53.15%	CLE, 0.5	CHA 15-10
Orioles	Rays	J.Guthrie vs D.Price	Rays	65.16%	55.06%	BAL, 1.6	BAL 4-1
Red Sox	Rangers	J.Lester vs C.Wilson	Red Sox	54.34%	45.36%	TEX, 1.6	TEX 9-5
Pirates	Cubs	K.Correia vs R.Dempster	Cubs	63.24%	62.97%	0.0	PIT 6-3
Angels	Royals	D.Haren vs J.Francis	Angels	57.81%	55.36%	0.0	KC 2-1
DBacks	Rockies	I.Kennedy vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	65.52%	72.36%	COL, 2.5	ARI 7-6

Seasonal ROI: -12.00%

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Opening Day Simulation

March 31st Opening Day Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Units Bet	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	50.50%	54.59%	LAN/0.8	LAN 2-1
Tigers	Yankees	J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	59.35%	58.91%	0.0	NYA 6-3
Royals	Angels	L.Hochevar vs J.Weaver	Angels	58.51%	57.60%	0.0	LAA 4-2
Braves	Nationals	D.Lowe vs L.Hernandez	Braves	58.33%	41.10%	WAS/3.4	ATL 2-0
Padres	Cardinals	T.Stauffer vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	65.52%	60.79%	SD/0.6	SD 5-3
Brewers	Reds	Y.Gallardo vs E.Volquez	Reds	53.27%	56.88%	CIN/1.0	CIN 7-6

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

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Organizational Rankings

Inspired by the second annual MLB Organization Rankings done by Fangraphs, I have decided to calculate my own. Last year famously, Fangraphs took a lot of deserved heat for ranking the Seattle Mariners, the laughing stock of baseball in 2010, as the #6Org. There was much uproar about the validity of a system that could rank them so high. While the 2011 list from Fangraphs is just underway, they have already raised my eyebrows by ranking the Dodgers as the #23Org. So I took it upon myself to see how difficult it would be do come up with a more sensible organizational ranking system. Not only that, but I've made my spreadsheet used to come up with my rankings a public google document.

Of course I don't have the hoards of databases and "expert" writers at my disposal to create such a ranking, but I feel I have done as good of job in the 60 minutes time it took me to slap together this ranking system. Below are the inputs and weightings used.

Methodology
1. Recent success and future forecasted success (winning games, making playoffs). This takes into consideration the number of games the team won over the past three years, along with their expected win total from Vegas for the 2011 season, plus a multiplier for number of times the team has made the playoffs over the past three years.
2. Minor league system (Baseball Prospectus)
3. Market Cap / Value of team (Forbes)
4. $Win efficiency (2011 Expected Wins above replacment per millions in projected payroll). The number of wins above 48 that the team is expected to have in the 2011 season (Vegas over/under) divided by its expected 2011 payroll.

Weights
1. 50%
2. 25%
3. 10%
4. 15%

With that, here is the list...

Team	Recent Success	Minors	Market Cap	Efficiency Rank	Weighted Final Average	Final Rank
PHI	1	8	6	20	6.1	1
TB	4	2	28	6	6.2	2
NYY	2	4	1	29	6.45	3
TEX	6	10	8	4	6.9	4
ATL	8	3	13	10	7.55	5
MIN	5	15	12	14	9.55	6
SF	7	22	7	1	9.85	7
LAA	9	6	9	21	10.05	8
BOS	3	19	2	26	10.35	9
CIN	13	9	23	8	12.25	10
COL	11	14	17	11	12.35	11
LAN	12	18	3	17	13.35	12
STL	10	21	11	16	13.75	13
TOR	20	5	27	9	15.3	14
SD	21	11	19	2	15.45	15
OAK	18	16	29	3	16.35	16
CHA	14	25	10	22	17.55	17
FLA	15	29	24	5	17.9	18
MIL	16	30	22	12	19.5	19
CLE	26	7	25	19	20.1	20
CHN	19	23	4	30	20.15	21
SEA	24	13	15	23	20.2	22
WAS	28	12	16	15	20.85	23
DET	17	27	21	25	21.1	24
KC	29	1	26	27	21.4	25
NYN	22	24	5	28	21.7	26
ARI	27	20	20	13	22.45	27
PIT	30	17	30	7	23.3	28
HOU	23	28	14	24	23.5	29
BAL	25	26	18	18	23.5	29

Sources:
Baseball Prosectus
Forbes
MLB Contracts

2011 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format

I began looking for an online MLB schedule in text ascii format. I couldn't find one anywhere, so I decided to make my own. After scraping the schedules off of mlb.com and writing a program to parse the data, I have come up with my own text ascii (csv) 2011 MLB Schedule.

The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home
2431,2011,9,28,LAN,ARI

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2431 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii csv file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

Note: Second version (3/19) of file is currently loaded as first version listed FLA for all Seattle games.

Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulation

Here is a simulation of the Diamondbacks and Rockies opening day game. Both teams starting pitchers for their first game of the season are locks. I have used starting lineups from the wonderful site MLBDepthCharts.Com. Below are the box scores from the simulation along with the results.

Lineups

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Stephen Drew	SS		Dexter Fowler	CF
Justin Upton	RF		Seth Smith	RF
Kelly Johnson	2B		Carlos Gonzalez	LF
Chris Young	CF		Troy Tulowitzki	SS
Miguel Montero	C		Todd Helton	1B
Xavier Nady	LF		Ian Stewart	3B
Melvin Mora	3B		Jose Lopez	2B
Juan Miranda	1B		Chris Iannetta	C
Ian Kennedy	P		Ubaldo Jimenez	P

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win/Prob
ARI	COL	Ian Kennedy	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	71.79%

It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Stephen Drew	4.337	1.207	0.722	0.309	0.095	0.081	0.347	0.435	1.07	0.346
Justin Upton	4.196	1.176	0.771	0.266	0.017	0.123	0.433	0.392	1.401	0.343
Kelly Johnson	4.117	1.109	0.65	0.303	0.047	0.109	0.454	0.45	1.208	0.344
Chris Young	4.046	1.011	0.61	0.267	0.018	0.116	0.497	0.374	1.237	0.318
Miguel Montero	3.962	1.052	0.667	0.287	0.02	0.077	0.45	0.4	1.105	0.327
Xavier Nady	3.924	1.069	0.704	0.248	0.006	0.111	0.48	0.284	1.123	0.326
Melvin Mora	3.818	1.123	0.748	0.268	0.023	0.084	0.439	0.277	0.874	0.343
Juan Miranda	3.79	1.148	0.791	0.261	0.014	0.082	0.447	0.235	0.647	0.344
Ian Kennedy	3.755	0.427	0.346	0.068	0.003	0.01	0.144	0.143	2.15	0.134
Dexter Fowler	4.312	1.429	0.835	0.357	0.129	0.107	0.472	0.469	0.93	0.406
Seth Smith	4.195	1.373	0.772	0.345	0.044	0.212	0.679	0.501	0.884	0.419
Carlos Gonzalez	4.188	1.551	0.859	0.343	0.088	0.261	0.866	0.44	0.985	0.467
Troy Tulowitzki	4.114	1.437	0.806	0.361	0.057	0.213	0.855	0.357	0.767	0.433
Todd Helton	3.812	1.367	0.835	0.35	0.027	0.155	0.754	0.605	0.733	0.445
Ian Stewart	3.864	1.235	0.698	0.326	0.037	0.175	0.76	0.436	0.907	0.406
Jose Lopez	3.946	1.269	0.819	0.317	0.02	0.113	0.634	0.197	0.554	0.368
Chris Iannetta	3.656	1.099	0.685	0.279	0.016	0.119	0.563	0.382	0.775	0.37
Ubaldo Jimenez	3.784	0.593	0.474	0.098	0.006	0.015	0.216	0.162	1.694	0.178

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Ubaldo Jimenez	6.201	7.387	2.245	6.195	0.435	102.776	2.816
Huston Street	0.411	0.507	0.076	0.399	0.036	6.429	2.416
Matt Belisle	0.39	0.442	0.062	0.404	0.039	6.07	2.718
Rafael Betancourt	0.728	1.073	0.135	0.674	0.102	11.565	2.634
Matt Lindstrom	0.38	0.361	0.128	0.441	0.045	6.3	3.857
Matt Reynolds	0.77	0.781	0.254	0.917	0.104	12.898	3.918
Matt Daley	0.253	0.261	0.088	0.287	0.032	4.219	3.834
Franklin Morales	0.004	0.004	0.002	0.005	0.001	0.068	4.607
Ian Kennedy	5.214	5.088	2.034	7.062	0.839	91.367	4.51
J.J. Putz	0.326	0.411	0.099	0.351	0.03	5.424	2.796
Juan Gutierrez	0.425	0.407	0.158	0.57	0.076	7.372	4.722
David Hernandez	0.724	0.716	0.354	0.976	0.138	13.056	5.172
Esmerling Vasquez	0.476	0.484	0.312	0.61	0.07	8.909	5.058
Aaron Heilman	0.813	0.742	0.368	1.132	0.145	14.522	5.049
Joe Paterson	0.449	0.368	0.217	0.629	0.069	8.032	4.999
Mike Hampton	0.017	0.013	0.007	0.024	0.002	0.303	4.634

Simulated 2011 NL West Projected Wins

Using my simulator to play out the 2011 schedules for NL West teams. Each game of each team's actual schedule was simulated 10,000 times. There is obviously some margin of error in these numbers. But they should be as good as anything anybody else puts out there.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct
Giants	88.2	73.8	.544
Rockies	86.8	75.2	.536
Dodgers	85.2	76.8	.526
Padres	81.0	81.0	.500
Diamondbacks	68.9	93.1	.425

Notes: My simulator uses a proprietary set of player projections as input. It also takes into consideration defense, home field advantage, park factors, splits, bullpens, speed, among many other things.

NL Centra/East, Saves Over/Under

On the heels of the NL West saves over/under numbers, here are the saves over/unders for the NL Central and East. Once again, feel free to provide any feedback on numbers you feel are too high or low.

NL Centra/East

Player	Team	Saves Over/Under
Brandon Lyon	HOU	31.5
Wilton Lopez	HOU	2.5
Mark Melancon	HOU	2.5
Craig Kimbrel	ATL	21.5
Jonny Venters	ATL	9.5
John Axford	MIL	24.5
Takashi Saito	MIL	4.5
Ryan Franklin	STL	34.5
Jason Motte	STL	3.5
Carlos Marmol	CHC	40.5
Kerry Wood	CHC	2.5
Leo Nunez	FLA	32.5
Clay Hensley	FLA	4.5
Francisco Rodriguez	NYM	34.5
Bobby Parnell	NYM	3.5
Drew Storen	WAS	22.5
Sean Burnett	WAS	3.5
Tyler Clippard	WAS	3.5
Brad Lidge	PHI	36.5
Ryan Madson	PHI	3.5
Joel Hanrahan	PIT	20.5
Evan Meek	PIT	9.5
Francisco Cordero	CIN	24.5
Ardolis Chapman	CIN	7.5
Nick Masset	CIN	2.5

NL West Over/Under On Saves

There is a science behind baseball player projections. But one of the more difficult stats to project is one of the more important one for fantasy baseball enthusiasts and that is saves. Saves by itself is not a great indicator of a pitchers talent, but nonetheless it is important for this niche of fantasy baseball managers to have a good swag on how many saves a closer or closer in waiting will likely get. There is obviously a large margin of error on any projection of saves but a good over/under (or mean average) number shouldn't be too difficult to publish. I am beginning publishing some save over/under numbers, starting with the NL West. I would like to get as much feedback as possible, so these numbers can be as representative as possible of a "Vegas type" over/under number. Please provide your thoughts below.

NL West

Player	Team	Saves Over/Under
J.Broxton	LAD	34.5
H.Kuo	LAD	4.5
M.Guerrier	LAD	2.5
K.Jansen	LAD	2.5
B.Wilson	SF	41.5
S.Romo	SF	2.5
J.Affeldt	SF	2.5
J.Putz	ARI	26.5
J.Gutierrez	ARI	4.5
D.Hernandez	ARI	2.5
H.Street	COL	32.5
R.Betancourt	COL	4.5
M.Lindstrom	COL	2.5
M.Belisle	COL	2.5
H.Bell	SD	42.5
M.Adams	SD	2.5
L.Gregerson	SD	2.5

Angels vs Royals, Opening Day Simulation

Now let's look ahead for the Angels. It is March 31st, opening day and the Angels are on the road playing the Kansas City Royals. The opening day starters are likely to be Jered Weaver vs Luke Hochevar. Lineups and depth charts are taken from MLBDepthCharts.com and I know that some players (K.Morales) may not be ready by opening day. I ran the likely lineups through my baseball simulator for 100K games. Below are a detailed look at the results for us baseball starved fans.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Angels			Royals
Maicer Izturis	3B		Melky Cabrera	CF
Bobby Abreu	DH		Mike Aviles	3B
Torii Hunter	RF		Billy Butler	DH
Kendry Morales	1B		Kila Kaaihue	1B
Vernon Wells	LF		Alex Gordon	LF
Howie Kendrick	2B		Jeff Francoeur	RF
Erick Aybar	SS		Brayan Pena	C
Jeff Mathis	C		Chris Getz	2B
Peter Bourjos	CF		Alcides Escobar	SS

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
LAA	KC	Jered Weaver	Luke Hochevar	LAA	59.07%	8.55

No surprise as it looks like the Angels will be a solid favorite on the road in the season opener, but of course anything can happen.

Here is the hitters boxscore(s)

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Maicer Izturis	4.533	1.329	0.781	0.412	0.033	0.102	0.478	0.363	0.704	0.353	0.329
Bobby Abreu	4.231	1.264	0.755	0.329	0.024	0.156	0.547	0.592	0.928	0.385	0.352
Torii Hunter	4.343	1.246	0.775	0.303	0.007	0.16	0.606	0.359	0.826	0.352	0.323
Kendry Morales	4.208	1.265	0.751	0.338	0.017	0.159	0.657	0.386	0.681	0.372	0.328
Vernon Wells	4.182	1.202	0.68	0.319	0.025	0.178	0.68	0.304	0.682	0.359	0.308
Howie Kendrick	4.158	1.311	0.804	0.373	0.051	0.082	0.532	0.214	0.7	0.362	0.364
Erick Aybar	4.004	1.15	0.761	0.259	0.079	0.052	0.446	0.262	0.637	0.333	0.331
Jeff Mathis	3.889	0.909	0.584	0.238	0.015	0.072	0.417	0.268	0.825	0.283	0.28
Peter Bourjos	3.866	1.023	0.647	0.256	0.061	0.06	0.414	0.185	0.726	0.307	0.313
Melky Cabrera	4.263	1.14	0.698	0.327	0.057	0.059	0.358	0.305	0.756	0.319	0.314
Mike Aviles	4.237	1.244	0.831	0.297	0.021	0.095	0.435	0.21	0.727	0.334	0.336
Billy Butler	4.049	1.177	0.716	0.332	0.004	0.126	0.505	0.33	0.764	0.353	0.333
Kila Kaaihue	3.963	0.999	0.678	0.209	0.014	0.098	0.429	0.359	0.917	0.31	0.306
Alex Gordon	3.806	1.002	0.627	0.237	0.014	0.124	0.472	0.413	0.928	0.337	0.319
Jeff Francoeur	3.824	1.017	0.672	0.22	0.015	0.11	0.437	0.23	0.825	0.316	0.314
Brayan Pena	3.676	0.907	0.65	0.223	0.005	0.028	0.288	0.268	0.822	0.283	0.311
Chris Getz	3.607	0.932	0.597	0.236	0.048	0.052	0.347	0.267	0.693	0.309	0.308
Alcides Escobar	3.549	0.905	0.616	0.198	0.053	0.038	0.323	0.181	0.681	0.291	0.306

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jered Weaver	6.396	5.274	1.652	6.738	0.545	99.864	3.434
Fernando Rodney	0.481	0.36	0.181	0.49	0.03	7.691	3.657
Scott Downs	0.404	0.288	0.104	0.426	0.025	6.231	3.353
Kevin Jepsen	0.602	0.484	0.252	0.614	0.033	9.812	3.565
Jordan Walden	0.297	0.249	0.129	0.31	0.028	4.901	4.058
Hisanori Takahashi	0.433	0.316	0.159	0.477	0.043	7.003	4.141
Rich Thompson	0.216	0.134	0.079	0.251	0.023	3.496	4.47
Bobby Cassevah	0.016	0.008	0.007	0.018	0.001	0.261	4.256
Luke Hochevar	5.9	4.097	1.755	7.014	0.696	94.648	4.238
Joakim Soria	0.39	0.418	0.073	0.357	0.023	5.929	2.372
Blake Wood	0.451	0.322	0.144	0.523	0.051	7.259	4.202
Robison Tejeda	0.759	0.675	0.272	0.806	0.069	12.341	3.673
Tim Collins	0.453	0.321	0.19	0.534	0.053	7.547	4.568
Jeremy Jeffress	0.914	0.641	0.385	1.053	0.08	15.143	4.203
Jesse Chavez	0.332	0.232	0.112	0.405	0.049	5.435	4.749
Kanekoa Texeira	0.005	0.003	0.002	0.006	0	0.087	3.739