Quality Starts R Us

May 23rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Tigers	Dodgers	R.Porcello vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	61.54%	60.56%	DET 6-2
Braves	Pirates	K.Medlen vs Z.Duke	Braves	54.75%	53.79%	PIT 3-2
Reds	Indians	H.Bailey vs D.Huff	Reds	55.56%	52.99%	CIN 4-3
Red Sox	Phillies	T.Wakefield vs R.Halladay	Phillies	65.40%	70.23%	BOS 8-3
Orioles	Nationals	K.Millwood vs J.Lannan	Nationals	53.05%	55.03%	WAS 4-3
Marlins	White Sox	J.Johnson vs F.Garcia	Marlins	56.33%	55.34%	FLA 13-0
Rays	Astros	D.Price vs B.Norris	Rays	62.26%	52.90%	TB 10-6
Cubs	Rangers	C.Silva vs C.WIlson	Rangers	62.55%	63.75%	CHN 5-4
Brewers	Twins	M.Estrada vs C.Pavano	Twins	64.79%	65.86%	MIL 4-3
Rockies	Royals	A.Cook vs Z.Greinke	Royals	57.63%	56.29%	COL 11-7
Angels	Cardinals	J.Weaver vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	58.85%	61.40%	STL 6-5
Giants	A's	J.Sanchez vs B.Sheets	A's	51.46%	52.94%	OAK 3-0
Padres	Mariners	M.Latos vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	57.45%	55.70%	SD 8-1
Blue Jays	DBacks	S.Marcum vs B.Buckner	Blue Jays	54.95%	54.89%	TOR 12-4
Yankees	Mets	C.Sabathia vs J.Santana	Yankees	57.45%	49.56%	NYN 6-4

Current ROI: 2.42%

MLB Scoreboard

Tied To Be First

May 22nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Tigers	Dodgers	A.Galarraga vs J.Ely	Dodgers	58.85%	62.78%	LAN 6-4
Braves	Pirates	D.Lowe vs C.Morton	Braves	59.02%	53.14%	ATL 4-2
Marlins	White Sox	C.Volstad vs G.Floyd	White Sox	54.55%	60.09%	CHA 4-1
Angels	Cardinals	S.Kazmir vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	58.33%	59.76%	LAA 10-7
Giants	A's	M.Cain vs G.Gonzalez	A's	51.22%	60.13%	OAK 1-0
Orioles	Nationals	B.Bergesen vs C.Stammen	Nationals	58.16%	61.94%	WAS 7-6
Rockies	Royals	J.Francis vs K.Davies	Rockies	54.13%	49.88%	COL 3-0
Brewers	Twins	Y.Gallardo vs K.Slowey	Twins	56.14%	51.59%	MIN 8-7
Rays	Astros	J.Niemann vs W.Rodriguez	Rays	58.68%	48.91%	TB 4-2
Reds	Indians	J.Cueto vs F.Carmona	Indians	51.22%	50.10%	CIN 6-4
Cubs	Rangers	R.Wells vs D.Holland	Rangers	60.32%	45.90%	CHN 5-4
Yankees	Mets	P.Hughes vs M.Pelfrey	Yankees	60.63%	52.95%	NYN 5-3
Red Sox	Phillies	D.Matsuzaka vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	57.81%	57.58%	BOS 5-0
Blue Jays	DBacks	D.Eveland vs E.Jackson	DBacks	56.33%	57.54%	DBacks 8-5
Padres	Mariners	C.Richard vs I.Snell	Padres	51.92%	53.35%	SD 2-1

Current ROI: 1.77%

NFL undrafted free agents

The Dontrelle Of A New Winning Streak

May 21th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Tigers	Dodgers	D.Willis vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	63.37%	64.99%	LAN 4-1
Braves	Pirates	T.Hudson vs R.Ohlendorf	Braves	60.16%	56.20%	ATL 7-0
Reds	Indians	B.Arroyo vs J.Westbrook	Reds	53.49%	51.48%	CIN 7-4
Red Sox	Phillies	J.Lackey vs C.Hamels	Phillies	56.71%	61.11%	PHI 5-1
Orioles	Nationals	D.Hernandez vs S.Olsen	Nationals	61.39%	67.31%	BAL 5-3
Yankees	Mets	J.Vazquez vs H.Takahashi	Yankees	60.32%	53.88%	NYA 2-1
Rays	Astros	M.Garza vs B.Myers	Rays	63.37%	60.01%	HOU 2-1
Cubs	Rangers	T.Lilly vs C.Lewis	Rangers	57.63%	51.37%	TEX 2-1
Marlins	White Sox	R.Nolasco vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	51.69%	49.71%	CHA 8-0
Brewers	Twins	D.Bush vs N.Blackburn	Twins	62.12%	58.08%	MIN 15-3
Rockies	Royals	J.Hammel vs B.Bannister	Rockies	51.92%	57.76%	KC 9-2
Angels	Cardinals	J.Pineiro vs B.Penny	Cardinals	59.18%	54.08%	STL 9-5
Blue Jays	DBacks	B.Morrow vs D.Haren	DBacks	61.24%	56.49%	ARI 8-6
Giants	A's	B.Zito vs T.Cahill	Giants	52.15%	55.63%	OAK 6-1
Padres	Mariners	W.LeBlanc vs C.Lee	Mariners	62.69%	62.07%	SEA 15-8

Current ROI: 2.65%

baseball whip

Can't Win Em All

May 20th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	K.Correia vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	61.54%	63.89%	LAN 4-1
Reds	Braves	M.Leake vs T.Hanson	Braves	60.16%	66.19%	ATL 10-9
Cubs	Phillies	R.Dempster vs J.Blanton	Phillies	53.92%	52.04%	PHI 5-4
Marlins	Cardinals	N.Robertson vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	69.23%	68.03%	STL 4-2
Brewers	Pirates	C.Narveson vs P.Maholm	Brewers	53.27%	48.87%	MIL 4-3
Mets	Nationals	J.Maine vs L.Atilano	Nationals	53.92%	59.61%	NYN 10-7
Rockies	Astros	U.Jimenez vs R.Oswalt	Rockies	58.16%	54.19%	COL 4-0
Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez	Giants	62.69%	61.22%	ARI 8-7
Tigers	A's	J.Bonderman vs T.Ross	Tigers	53.92%	52.80%	DET 5-2
Royals	Indians	L.Hochever vs M.Talbot	Indians	55.36%	45.25%	KC 9-3
Blue Jays	Mariners	R.Romero vs J.Vargas	Blue Jays	54.95%	52.71%	SEA 4-3
Rays	Yankees	J.Shields vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	57.98%	57.46%	TB 8-6
Twins	Red Sox	F.Liriano vs J.Lester	Red Sox	57.45%	51.28%	BOS 6-2
Orioles	Rangers	B.Matusz vs S.Feldman	Rangers	57.98%	49.32%	TEX 13-7
Angels	White Sox	E.Santana vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	53.92%	57.98%	LAA 6-5

Current ROI: 3.55%

Odds to win the World Series

NL West Tightens Up

May 19th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	J.Garland vs R.Ortiz	Dodgers	54.13%	52.76%	SD 10-5
Brewers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs B.Buress	Brewers	59.68%	49.42%	PIT 6-4
Cubs	Phillies	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Moyer	Phillies	57.08%	44.56%	CHN 4-1
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	58.68%	60.92%	WAS 5-3
Reds	Braves	A.Harang vs K.Kawakami	Braves	56.52%	56.00%	ATL 5-4
Rockies	Astros	G.Smith vs F.Paulino	Rockies	53.27%	40.49%	HOU 7-3
Marlins	Cardinals	A.Sanchez vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	62.41%	60.00%	FLA 5-1
Giants	DBacks	T.Wellemeyer vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	59.51%	58.74%	ARI 13-1
Royals	Indians	G.Meche vs J.Masterson	Indians	56.52%	58.48%	KC 8-5
Rays	Yankees	W.Davis vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.68%	61.71%	TB 10-6
Twins	Red Sox	S.Baker vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	55.56%	49.46%	BOS 3-2
Orioles	Rangers	J.Guthrie vs R.Harden	Rangers	61.54%	53.71%	TEX 4-3
Angels	White Sox	J.Saunders vs J.Danks	White Sox	58.51%	63.95%	LAA 3-2
Tigers	A's	J.Verlander vs D.Braden	Tigers	54.55%	49.78%	DET 5-1
Blue Jays	Mariners	B.Cecil vs D.Fister	Mariners	55.56%	56.78%	TOR 3-2

Current ROI: 2.94%

MLB Scoreboard

Eight! Eight! I Forget What Eight Was For

May 18th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Astros	Dodgers	B.Norris vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	67.74%	62.45%	LAN 7-3
Brewers	Reds	M.Parra vs H.Bailey	Reds	56.52%	54.18%	CIN 5-4
DBacks	Marlins	B.Buckner vs J.Johnson	Marlins	65.64%	69.31%	FLA 8-0
Pirates	Phillies	Z.Duke vs R.Halladay	Phillies	76.69%	73.22%	PIT 2-1
Mets	Braves	J.Santana vs K.Medlan	Mets	52.15%	42.64%	ATL 3-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Silva	Cubs	53.49%	54.91%	CHN 6-2
Nationals	Cardinals	J.Lannan vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	72.22%	63.87%	STL 3-2
Giants	Padres	J.Sanchez vs M.Latos	Padres	51.46%	47.62%	SF 7-6
Twins	Blue Jays	C.Pavano vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	53.92%	50.55%	TOR 11-2
White Sox	Tigers	F.Garcia vs R.Porcello	Tigers	56.52%	54.42%	CHA 6-2
Indians	Rays	D.Huff vs D.Price	Rays	70.59%	72.83%	TB 6-2
Royals	Orioles	Z.Greinke vs K.Millwood	Royals	52.15%	55.98%	BAL 4-3
Red Sox	Yankees	J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	64.91%	58.29%	BOS 7-6
Angels	Rangers	J.Weaver vs C.Wilson	Rangers	54.95%	61.74%	TEX 8-7
Mariners	A's	F.Hernandez vs B.Sheets	Mariners	56.14%	52.04%	OAK 6-5

Current ROI: 1.95%

MLB Scoreboard

Backseat To Purple And Gold

May 17th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Astros	Dodgers	W.Rodriguez vs J.Ely	Dodgers	61.39%	54.81%	LAN 6-2
Pirates	Phillies	C.Morton vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	68.05%	63.15%	PHI 12-2
DBacks	Marlins	E.Jackson vs C.Volstad	Marlins	59.18%	56.77%	ARI 5-1
Brewers	Reds	Y.Gallardo vs J.Cueto	Reds	50.74%	50.85%	CIN 6-3
Mets	Braves	M.Pelfrey vs D.Lowe	Braves	57.63%	56.86%	NYN 3-2
Rockies	Cubs	A.Cook vs R.Wells	Cubs	57.98%	59.72%	CHN 4-2
Nationals	Cardinals	C.Stammen vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	60.78%	55.34%	STL 6-2
Giants	Padres	M.Cain vs C.Richard	Giants	53.92%	46.06%	SD 3-1
Royals	Orioles	K.Davies vs B.Bergesen	Orioles	56.52%	53.46%	KC 4-3
White Sox	Tigers	F.Garcia vs R.Porcello	Tigers	57.81%	53.48%	Ppd
Red Sox	Yankees	D.Matsuzaka vs P.Hughes	Yankees	65.28%	66.89%	NYA 11-9
Twins	Blue Jays	K.Slowey vs D.Eveland	Twins	53.49%	43.94%	MIN 8-3
Indians	Rays	F.Carmona vs J.Niemann	Rays	66.67%	63.94%	TB 4-3
Angels	Rangers	S.Kazmir vs D.Holland	Rangers	57.98%	56.01%	TEX 4-3
Mariners	A's	R.Smith vs G.Gonzalez	A's	57.98%	63.93%	OAK 8-4

Current ROI: 1.99%

MLB Scoreboard

Home Sweet San Diego

May 16th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	C.Billingsley vs W.LeBlanc	Dodgers	52.15%	47.88%	LAN 1-0
Mets	Marlins	J.Niese vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	63.24%	63.14%	FLA 10-8
Cardinals	Reds	B.Penny vs B.Arroyo	Cardinals	55.56%	53.21%	CIN 7-2
DBacks	Braves	D.Haren vs T.Hudson	Braves	54.13%	51.58%	ATL 13-1
Pirates	Cubs	R.Ohlendorf vs T.Lilly	Cubs	70.15%	63.32%	CHN 4-3
Nationals	Rockies	S.Olsen vs J.Francis	Rockies	56.71%	51.94%	COL 2-1
Astros	Giants	B.Myers vs B.Zito	Giants	62.55%	64.57%	SF 4-3
Red Sox	Tigers	J.Lackey vs A.Galarraga	Red Sox	59.18%	57.28%	DET 5-1
Twins	Yankees	N.Blackburn vs S.Mitre	Yankees	57.81%	52.94%	MIN 6-3
Rangers	Blue Jays	C.Lewis vs B.Morrow	Rangers	53.49%	44.48%	TOR 5-2
Indians	Orioles	J.Westbrook vs D.Hernandez	Indians	53.05%	44.13%	CLE 5-1
Mariners	Rays	C.Lee vs M.Garza	Rays	57.81%	53.32%	TB 2-1
White Sox	Royals	G.Floyd vs B.Bannister	White Sox	51.22%	53.56%	KC 5-3
A's	Angels	T.Cahill vs J.Pineiro	Angels	60.78%	67.61%	LAA 4-0

Current ROI: 2.10%

The War Of 18-17

May 15th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	C.Kershaw vs K.Correia	Dodgers	54.75%	53.17%	LAN 4-1
Pirates	Cubs	P.Maholm vs R.Dempster	Cubs	68.75%	66.53%	PIT 4-3
Nationals	Rockies	L.Hernandez vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	70.93%	69.29%	COL 6-2
Astros	Giants	R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum	Giants	68.15%	63.60%	SF 2-1
Phillies	Brewers	J.Blanton vs C.Narveson	Brewers	51.69%	50.99%	PHI 10-6
Cardinals	Reds	A.Wainwright vs M.Leake	Cardinals	59.51%	59.48%	CIN 4-3
DBacks	Braves	R.Lopez vs T.Hanson	Braves	67.21%	68.79%	ARI 11-1
Mets	Marlins	J.Maine vs N.Robertson	Marlins	53.70%	57.98%	FLA 7-5
Nationals	Rockies	L.Atilano vs J.Hammel	Rockies	60.63%	63.40%	COL 4-3
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	56.33%	55.26%	NYA 7-1
Rangers	Blue Jays	S.Feldman vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	57.98%	63.92%	TOR 6-0
Mariners	Rays	J.Vargas vs J.Shields	Rays	67.21%	60.03%	TB 2-1
Red Sox	Tigers	J.lester vs D.Willis	Red Sox	60.63%	54.50%	DET 7-6
Indians	Orioles	M.Talbot vs B.Matusz	Orioles	57.45%	67.17%	CLE 8-2
White Sox	Royals	J.Peavy vs L.Hochevar	White Sox	57.45%	48.57%	CHA 5-4
A's	Angels	J.Duchscherer vs E.Santana	Angels	56.90%	58.54%	LAA 12-3

Current ROI: 2.44%

Most Profitable MLB Teams To Bet On

Little Pitcher In Big Game

May 14th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	R.Ortiz vs J.Garland	Padres	57.45%	55.47%	LAN 4-3
Pirates	Cubs	B.Buress vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	66.67%	68.83%	PIT 10-6
Mets	Marlins	O.Perez vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	57.81%	60.88%	FLA 7-2
Cardinals	Reds	J.Garcia vs A.Harang	Cardinals	54.13%	53.49%	STL 4-3
DBacks	Braves	I.Kennedy vs K.Kawakami	Braves	55.75%	58.04%	ATL 6-5
Phillies	Brewers	J.Blanton vs R.Wolf	Brewers	54.75%	51.70%	PHI 9-5
Nationals	Rockies	L.Hernandez vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	69.88%	68.92%	PPd
Astros	Giants	F.Paulino vs T.Wellemeyer	Giants	58.16%	47.33%	SF 8-2
Indians	Orioles	J.Masterson vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	53.70%	52.84%	BAL 8-1
Red Sox	Tigers	C.Buchholz vs M.Scherzer	Red Sox	53.49%	51.49%	BOS 7-2
Twins	Yankees	S.Baker vs A.Burnett	Yankees	61.54%	57.14%	NYA 8-4
Rangers	Blue Jays	R.Harden vs B.Cecil	Blue Jays	51.46%	57.89%	TOR 16-10
Mariners	Rays	D.Fister vs W.Davis	Rays	63.24%	55.44%	SEA 4-3
White Sox	Royals	M.Buehrle vs G.Meche	White Sox	54.95%	53.30%	KC 6-1
A's	Angels	D.Braden vs J.Saunders	Angels	53.27%	43.86%	LAA 4-0

Current ROI: 3.30%

Doc's Sports Betting Blog

Resting at .500

May 13th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Astros	Cardinals	B.Norris vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	72.22%	66.12%	HOU 4-1
Padres	Giants	M.Latos vs J.Sanchez	Giants	60.32%	65.77%	SD 1-0
Mets	Marlins	J.Santana vs J.Johnson	Marlins	54.55%	59.16%	FLA 2-1
Nationals	Rockies	J.Lannan vs J.Chacin	Rockies	65.16%	58.75%	TBD
Yankees	Tigers	C.Sabathia vs J.Verlander	Yankees	55.56%	47.91%	DET 6-0
Mariners	Orioles	F.Hernandez vs K.Millwood	Mariners	56.52%	48.66%	BAL 6-5
A's	Rangers	B.Sheets vs C.Wilson	Rangers	62.26%	70.92%	TEX 2-1
Indians	Royals	D.Huff vs Z.Greinke	Royals	65.52%	69.13%	KC 6-4

Current ROI: 2.03%

Probable Pitchers

Desert Hospitality

May 12th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	H.Kuroda vs E.Jackson	Dodgers	52.83%	57.85%	LAN 6-3
Reds	Pirates	H.Bailey vs Z.Duke	Pirates	52.15%	52.58%	CIN 5-0
Braves	Brewers	D.Lowe vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	61.24%	58.58%	ATL 9-2
Nationals	Mets	C.Stammen vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	61.83%	56.07%	WAS 6-4
Marlins	Cubs	C.Volstad vs C.Silva	Cubs	54.13%	57.53%	CHN 4-3
Phillies	Rockies	R.Halladay vs A.Cook	Phillies	62.96%	59.39%	COL 4-3
Phillies	Rockies	J.Moyer vs J.Hammel	Phillies	51.92%	42.29%	Ppd
Astros	Cardinals	W.Rodriguez vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	63.10%	54.54%	HOU 9-6
Padres	Giants	C.Richard vs M.Cain	Giants	63.10%	58.43%	SD 5-2
Yankees	Tigers	J.Vazquez vs R.Porcello	Yankees	58.51%	51.69%	DET 2-0
Yankees	Tigers	P.Hughes vs J.Bonderman	Yankees	62.69%	60.47%	NYA 8-0
White Sox	Twins	J.Danks vs C.Pavano	Twins	56.90%	55.49%	MIN 3-2
Blue Jays	Red Sox	S.Marcum vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	51.22%	50.69%	TOR 3-2
Rays	Angels	D.Price vs J.Weaver	Angels	51.22%	52.73%	TB 4-3
Mariners	Orioles	R.Smith vs B.Bergessen	Orioles	52.15%	54.18%	BAL 5-2
A's	Rangers	G.Gonzalez vs D.Holland	Rangers	54.75%	46.82%	TEX 10-1
Indians	Royals	F.Carmona vs K.Davies	Royals	50.74%	54.37%	CLE 4-0

Current ROI: 1.94%

Probable Pitchers

Ely Man II

May 11th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	J.Ely vs D.Haren	DBacks	60.78%	58.55%	LAN 13-3
Reds	Pirates	J.Cueto vs C.Morton	Reds	54.55%	50.69%	CIN 9-0
Nationals	Mets	S.Olsen vs J.Niese	Mets	57.26%	52.35%	NYN 8-6
Marlins	Cubs	R.Nolasco vs R.Wells	Cubs	52.15%	60.97%	FLA 3-2
Braves	Brewers	T.Hudson vs D.Bush	Braves	53.27%	50.89%	ATL 11-3
Astros	Cardinals	B.Myers vs B.Penny	Cardinals	68.25%	66.08%	HOU 6-3
Phillies	Rockies	R.Halladay vs A.Cook	Phillies	63.24%	59.12%	Ppd
Padres	Giants	W.LeBlanc vs B.Zito	Giants	60.00%	59.45%	SD 3-2
Mariners	Orioles	C.Lee vs D.Hernandez	Mariners	59.35%	59.69%	SEA 5-1
Yankees	Tigers	J.Vazquez vs R.Porcello	Yankees	56.52%	51.53%	Ppd
Blue Jays	Red Sox	D.Eveland vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	62.41%	50.87%	BOS 6-1
A's	Rangers	T.Cahill vs C.Lewis	Rangers	62.69%	59.41%	OAK 7-6
White Sox	Twins	F.Garcia vs K.Slowey	Twins	61.54%	53.40%	CHA 5-2
Indians	Royals	J.Westbrook vs B.Bannister	Royals	51.22%	56.48%	CLE 8-2
Rays	Angels	J.Niemann vs S.Kazmir	Rays	52.38%	52.34%	TB 7-2

Current ROI: 2.01%

Probable Pitchers

In The Zona

May 10th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Billingsley vs R.Lopez	Dodgers	54.13%	55.80%	LAN 7-3
Reds	Pirates	B.Arroyo vs R.Ohlendorf	Reds	53.05%	52.40%	CIN 2-1
Nationals	Mets	L.Atilano vs J.Maine	Mets	60.63%	52.96%	WAS 3-2
Marlins	Cubs	N.Robertson vs T.Lilly	Cubs	60.00%	64.57%	FLA 4-2
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs D.Davis	Braves	56.52%	50.91%	ATL 8-2
Phillies	Rockies	K.Kendrick vs G.Smith	Rockies	51.69%	52.11%	PHI 9-5
Yankees	Tigers	S.Mitre vs D.Willis	Yankees	54.13%	48.99%	DET 5-4
Blue Jays	Red Sox	B.Morrow vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	62.55%	60.93%	BOS 7-6
Rays	Angels	M.Garza vs J.Pineiro	Rays	58.85%	46.41%	LAA 5-4

Current ROI: 1.97%

Probable Pitchers

Kerplunk

May 9th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs C.Kershaw	Rockies	54.55%	47.36%	LAN 2-0

Current ROI: 1.97%

Today's Scoreboard

Manny Reasons For Dodgers Fans To Be Happy

May 8th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Chacin vs C.Haeger	Dodgers	52.61%	54.92%	COL 8-0

Current ROI (as of Friday): 1.97%

Fangraphs unveils great new stat.

Rockies vs Dodgers - Simulation

May 7th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	E.Rogers vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	62.12%	62.80%	LAN 6-5
Cardinals	Pirates	C.Carpenter vs Z.Duke	Cardinals	68.25%	60.38%	STL 4-3
Braves	Phillies	D.Lowe vs J.Moyer	Phillies	55.75%	53.72%	PHI 7-0
Marlins	Nationals	C.Volstad vs C.Stammen	Marlins	53.27%	43.25%	FLA 4-2
Giants	Mets	J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	53.70%	49.03%	NYN 6-4
Cubs	Reds	C.Silva vs H.Bailey	Reds	50.74%	52.78%	CHN 14-7
Padres	Astros	M.Latos vs B.Norris	Padres	54.13%	38.57%	SD 7-0
Brewers	DBacks	Y.Gallardo vs E.Jackson	Brewers	55.56%	53.06%	MIL 3-2
Tigers	Indians	J.Bonderman vs D.Huff	Tigers	50.74%	52.56%	PPD
Yankees	Red Sox	P.Hughes vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	51.69%	52.17%	NYA 10-3
Royals	Rangers	Z.Greinke vs C.Wilson	Rangers	54.34%	55.49%	TEX 4-1
Orioles	Twins	K.Millwood vs F.Liriano	Twins	69.14%	66.44%	PPD
Blue Jays	White Sox	S.Marcum vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	51.92%	50.43%	TOR 7-4
Rays	A's	D.Price vs G.Gonzalez	Rays	59.68%	51.31%	TB 4-1
Angels	Mariners	J.Weaver vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	58.51%	55.38%	LAA 8-0

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 1.97%

Look at the score updated LA Dodgers schedule includes winning and losing pitchers for each team.

Home Cooking Ails Dodgers

May 6th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Brewers	Dodgers	D.Bush vs J.Ely	Dodgers	54.95%	57.82%	LAN 7-3
Cardinals	Phillies	K.Lohse vs R.Halladay	Phillies	69.23%	61.61%	PHI 7-2
Cubs	Pirates	R.Wells vs Z.Duke	Cubs	59.18%	61.72%	PIT 11-1
Braves	Nationals	T.Hudson vs S.Olsen	Braves	57.08%	47.98%	WAS 3-2
Giants	Marlins	M.Cain vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	55.36%	51.86%	SF 6-3
DBacks	Astros	D.Haren vs W.Rodriguez	DBacks	56.33%	45.23%	ARI 6-3
Angels	Red Sox	S.Kazmir vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	57.45%	50.82%	BOS 11-6
Royals	Rangers	K.Davies vs M.Harrison	Rangers	59.35%	54.32%	TEX 13-12
Orioles	Twins	B.Bergesen vs C.Pavano	Twins	69.60%	69.09%	BAL 2-0
Blue Jays	White Sox	D.Eveland vs J.Danks	White Sox	64.79%	56.41%	TOR 2-0
Rays	Mariners	J.Niemann vs R.Smith	Rays	57.63%	57.98%	TB 8-0

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 2.05%

Check out the Sports Betting Champ system review at Doc's Sports.

Converting From A Win Percentage To A Money Line

I was recently asked if there was a formula for converting a win percentage to a Money Line. For example, if we think a team has a 65% chance of winning a game, what would the "fair" money line be for that game?

Money lines are generally given as a negative number for the favorite and a positive number for the underdog. There are cases that both teams will be listed with a negative number if the odds are very even and there is juice on the game. A site that has a dime juice, will have the money line listed as -105/-105 on a 50/50 game. Without the juice, both teams would be listed as +100 or -100 (same thing).

Now back to our request for a formula for converting from win percentage to money line. Since the favorite will be listed as a negative number and the underdog as a positive number, we have to use two similar but slightly different formulas. One for the favorite and one for the underdog.

Depending on what type of juice you’d be expecting you’d add/subtract an offset in. With a dime juice you’d subtract a nickel (from -150 to -155) from the favorite and subtract a nickel from the dog too (+150 to +145). Let's ignore the juice for now, as it can easily be added in at the end of the process.

P = Probability of the team winning
X = Money Line (not adjusted for juice)

Favorites: X = -100P / (1 – P)

Underdog X = (100 – 100P) / P

Example, Team A has a 65% chance of winning and Team B has a 35% chance of winning.

ML for Team A would be:
= (-100 * .65) / (1 – .65)
= -65 / .35
= -185.7

ML for Team B would be:
= (100 – (100 * .35)) / .35
= (100 – 35) / .35
= 65 / .35
= +185.7

Let's round it off a little bit and call this a -186/+186 game. So if a team was listed on the money line as -186 favorite (with no juice) they would have a 65% chance of winning according to the money line. If you were to add a dime juice to this line you would end up with something like -191/+181. But keep in mind that juice tends to increase as a team becomes a larger and larger favorite.

Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google Docs.

Bad To The Bone

May 5th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Brewers	Dodgers	D.Davis vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.66%	63.88%	LAN 11-3
Mets	Reds	J.Niese vs J.Cueto	Reds	55.16%	51.61%	CIN 5-4
Cubs	Pirates	T.Lilly vs C.Morton	Cubs	60.00%	58.31%	PIT 4-2
Cardinals	Phillies	B.Penny vs K.Kendrick	Cardinals	53.05%	54.25%	PHI 4-0
Braves	Nationals	T.Hanson vs L.Atilano	Braves	58.33%	55.78%	ATL 7-6
Giants	Marlins	B.Zito vs N.Robertson	Giants	56.52%	56.87%	SF 3-2
DBacks	Astros	R.Lopez vs B.Myers	DBacks	50.01%	50.48%	HOU 4-2
Rockies	Padres	A.Cook vs C.Richard	Padres	53.92%	55.77%	COL 6-5
Blue Jays	Indians	B.Morrow vs F.Carmona	Indians	53.70%	53.48%	TOR 5-4
Orioles	Yankees	D.Hernandez vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	73.68%	68.61%	NYA 7-5
Tigers	Twins	R.Porcello vs K.Slowey	Twins	60.32%	56.90%	MIN 5-4
Rangers	A's	C.Lewis vs T.Cahill	Rangers	55.75%	48.82%	OAK 4-1
Angels	Red Sox	J.Pineiro vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	62.26%	50.48%	BOS 3-1
Royals	White Sox	B.Bannister vs F.Garcia	White Sox	57.26%	57.02%	CHA 9-2
Rays	Mariners	M.Garza vs C.Lee	Rays	51.46%	48.30%	TB 8-3

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 3.22%

View Doc's Sports baseball betting system for more infomation about picking winners.

The Chronicles Of Narveson

May 4th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Brewers	Dodgers	C.Narveson vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	65.52%	69.81%	MIL 11-6
Cubs	Pirates	R.Dempster vs P.Maholm	Cubs	59.35%	57.10%	PIT 3-2
Cardinals	Phillies	A.Wainwright vs C.Hamels	Cardinals	50.98%	54.08%	PHI 2-1
Braves	Nationals	K.Kawakami vs L.Hernandez	Braves	51.69%	48.01%	WAS 6-3
Mets	Reds	J.Maine vs B.Arroyo	Reds	56.33%	59.34%	NYN 5-4
Giants	Marlins	T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez	Giants	62.69%	60.06%	SF 9-6
DBacks	Astros	I.Kennedy vs R.Oswalt	Astros	52.38%	61.64%	ARI 1-0
Rockies	Padres	G.Smith vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	56.33%	59.07%	SD 3-2
Blue Jays	Indians	R.Romero vs J.Westbrook	Blue Jays	54.34%	54.96%	TOR 8-5
Orioles	Yankees	B.Matusz vs A.Burnett	Yankees	68.75%	62.21%	NYA 4-1
Angels	Red Sox	E.Santana vs J.Lester	Red Sox	63.24%	63.78%	BOS 5-1
Tigers	Twins	D.Willis vs N.Blackburn	Twins	56.33%	52.65%	MIN 4-3
Royals	White Sox	L.Hochevar vs G.Floyd	White Sox	62.96%	60.06%	KC 7-2
Rangers	A's	S.Feldman vs V.Mazzaro	Rangers	50.98%	52.65%	OAK 7-6
Rays	Mariners	J.Shields vs J.Vargas	Rays	56.14%	50.61%	TB 5-2

Current ROI (as of Monday): 5.12%

Check out a list of sports betting systems that work all at Doc's Sports.

Sabathia, Yanks Huge Favorites Today

May 3rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Cardinals	Phillies	J.Garcia vs J.Blanton	Cardinals	52.61%	52.33%	STL 6-3
Mets	Reds	O.Perez vs M.Leake	Reds	58.16%	54.19%	CIN 3-2
DBacks	Astros	C.Valdez vs F.Paulino	Astros	51.46%	57.15%	ARI 9-1
Rockies	Padres	U.Jimenez vs K.Correia	Rockies	57.26%	54.31%	COL 5-2
Blue Jays	Indians	B.Cecil vs M.Talbot	Indians	52.38%	50.18%	TOR 5-1
Orioles	Yankees	J.Guthrie vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	75.00%	68.48%	NYA 4-1
Angels	Red Sox	J.Saunders vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	62.55%	60.51%	BOS 17-8
Royals	White Sox	G.Meche vs J.Peavy	White Sox	63.37%	61.86%	CHA 5-1
Tigers	Twins	M.Scherzer vs S.Baker	Twins	56.90%	58.89%	MIN 10-4
Rangers	A's	R.Harden vs D.Braden	A's	57.26%	60.38%	TEX 4-2

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 6.53%

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Undefeated In May

May 2nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	J.Karstens vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	70.67%	65.38%	LAN 9-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	65.87%	62.28%	FLA 9-3
Astros	Braves	B.Norris vs D.Lowe	Braves	62.83%	56.24%	ATL 7-1
Reds	Cardinals	A.Harang vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	70.59%	65.34%	STL 6-0
DBacks	Cubs	E.Jackson vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	59.18%	61.63%	CHN 10-5
Brewers	Padres	R.Wolf vs J.Garland	Brewers	51.69%	48.51%	SD 8-0
Rockies	Giants	J.Chacin vs J.Sanchez	Giants	61.09%	64.56%	COL 4-1
Mets	Phillies	J.Santana vs J.Moyer	Mets	56.71%	53.34%	PHI 11-5
Twins	Indians	F.Liriano vs D.Huff	Twins	60.63%	54.66%	MIN 8-3
Angels	Tigers	J.Weaver vs J.Verlander	Tigers	54.55%	54.48%	DET 5-1
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs P.Hughes	Yankees	66.78%	58.03%	NYA 12-3
A's	Blue Jays	B.Sheets vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	57.81%	61.55%	TOR 9-3
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs K.Millwood	Red Sox	59.18%	50.77%	BAL 3-2
Royals	Rays	Z.Greinke vs W.Davis	Rays	56.52%	48.05%	TB 1-0
Rangers	Mariners	C.Wilson vs D.Fister	Mariners	52.15%	49.59%	TEX 3-1

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 8.37%

Duke It Out

May 1st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	Z.Duke vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	63.90%	58.92%	LAN 5-1
DBacks	Cubs	D.Haren vs C.Silva	Cubs	50.98%	55.37%	CHN 7-5
Reds	Cardinals	H.Bailey vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	64.03%	57.65%	CIN 6-3
Astros	Braves	W.Rodriguez vs T.Hudson	Braves	65.87%	52.32%	ATL 10-1
Mets	Phillies	M.Pelfrey vs R.Halladay	Phillies	67.53%	63.53%	PHI 10-0
Rockies	Giants	E.Rogers vs M.Cain	Giants	59.51%	58.33%	SF 6-1
Nationals	Marlins	C.Stammen vs C.Volstad	Marlins	61.54%	49.00%	FLA 7-1
Brewers	Padres	Y.Gallardo vs M.Latos	Brewers	55.95%	53.40%	MIL 2-1
White Sox	Yankees	J.Danks vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	60.16%	56.73%	CHA 7-6
A's	Blue Jays	G.Gonzalez vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	54.13%	57.07%	OAK 4-3
Rangers	Mariners	M.Harrison vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	69.33%	66.04%	TEX 6-3
Royals	Rays	K.Davies vs D.Price	Rays	72.22%	66.14%	KC 4-2
Twins	Indians	J.Manship vs J.Masterson	Indians	51.92%	54.83%	CLE 5-4
Red Sox	Orioles	D.Matsuzaka vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	61.69%	51.05%	BAL 12-9

Current ROI (as of Friday): 8.95%

Sports Betting Professor Review

Dodgers Are Strange

April 30th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	C.Morton vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	69.23%	68.34%	LAN 6-2
DBacks	Cubs	R.Lopez vs R.Wells	Cubs	60.32%	67.72%	CHN 11-5
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	59.84%	52.69%	NYN 9-1
Nationals	Marlins	S.Olsen vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	68.75%	57.38%	WAS 7-1
Astros	Braves	B.Myers vs T.Hanson	Braves	66.67%	63.29%	ATL 4-2
Reds	Cardinals	J.Cueto vs B.Penny	Cardinals	66.55%	63.49%	CIN 3-2
Brewers	Padres	D.Bush vs C.Richard	Padres	56.52%	60.76%	SD 3-0
Rockies	Giants	A.Cook vs B.Zito	Giants	57.98%	57.72%	SF 5-2
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Lackey vs D.Hernandez	Red Sox	60.00%	57.11%	BAL 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	F.Garcia vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	71.43%	67.61%	NYA 6-4
Twins	Indians	K.Slowey vs F.Carmona	Twins	51.92%	52.17%	MIN 9-3
Angels	Tigers	J.Pineiro vs R.Porcello	Angels	53.49%	58.36%	DET 10-6
A's	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	55.95%	57.92%	TOR 10-2
Royals	Rays	B.Bannister vs J.Niemann	Rays	70.85%	63.42%	KC 3-2
Rangers	Mariners	C.Lewis vs C.Lee	Mariners	59.51%	63.49%	TEX 2-0

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 5.47%

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Last Place Team Returns Home

April 29th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	B.Buress vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	70.67%	73.26%	PIT 2-0
Braves	Cardinals	J.Jurrjens vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	65.64%	62.75%	STL 10-4
DBacks	Cubs	I.Kennedy vs T.Lilly	Cubs	61.98%	67.95%	ARI 13-5
Reds	Astros	B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt	Astros	62.41%	58.33%	CIN 4-2
Brewers	Padres	D.Davis vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	57.45%	54.14%	SD 9-0
Twins	Tigers	C.Pavano vs D.Willis	Twins	56.90%	59.48%	DET 3-0
White Sox	Rangers	G.Floyd vs S.Feldman	Rangers	56.52%	50.75%	CHA 7-5
Yankees	Orioles	A.Burnett vs B.Matusz	Yankees	63.24%	51.89%	NYA 4-0
A's	Blue Jays	J.Duchscherer vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	55.36%	60.63%	TOR 6-3
Royals	Rays	L.Hochevar vs M.Garza	Rays	70.59%	65.10%	TB 11-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 7.72%

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El Y

April 28th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	J.Ely vs J.Maine	Mets	50.49%	51.35%	NYN 7-3
Padres	Marlins	K.Correia vs N.Robertson	Padres	57.08%	51.62%	SD 6-4
Pirates	Brewers	P.Maholm vs C.Narveson	Brewers	58.85%	52.25%	PIT 6-5
Nationals	Cubs	L.Atilano vs R.Dempster	Cubs	66.10%	66.70%	WAS 3-2
DBacks	Rockies	K.Benson vs G.Smith	Rockies	58.33%	61.15%	ARI 12-11
Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum	Giants	58.68%	61.86%	PHI 7-6
Reds	Astros	M.Leake vs F.Paulino	Astros	52.61%	57.14%	CIN 6-4
Braves	Cardinals	K.Kawakami vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	59.18%	54.40%	STL 6-0
Mariners	Royals	R.Smith vs G.Meche	Mariners	52.38%	48.80%	SEA 6-5
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs J.Guthrie	Yankees	68.15%	64.87%	NYA 8-3
Twins	Tigers	S.Baker vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	51.46%	47.91%	DET 11-6
Indians	Angels	J.Westbrook vs E.Santana	Angels	61.54%	60.14%	LAA 4-3
A's	Rays	D.Braden vs J.Shields	Rays	60.47%	55.88%	TB 10-3

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 9.51%

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Take Two Bites Out Of Big Apple

April 27th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	H.Kuroda vs J.Santana	Mets	57.45%	52.14%	NYN 4-0
Dodgers	Mets	C.Haeger vs O.Perez	Mets	52.15%	57.84%	NYN 10-5

Current ROI (as of Monday): 11.09%

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On Broadway

April 26th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Mets	H.Kuroda vs O.Perez	Dodgers	56.52%	55.16%	PPD
Padres	Marlins	M.Latos vs J.Johnson	Marlins	59.68%	64.67%	FLA 10-1
Nationals	Cubs	J.Lannan vs C.Silva	Cubs	60.16%	60.04%	CHN 4-3
Pirates	Brewers	Z.Duke vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	67.21%	63.05%	MIL 17-3
Braves	Cardinals	T.Hudson vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	53.49%	55.21%	STL 4-3
DBacks	Rockies	D.Haren vs J.Hammel	DBacks	51.92%	38.17%	ARI 5-3
Phillies	Giants	R.Halladay vs J.Sanchez	Phillies	60.63%	51.36%	SF 5-1
Red Sox	Blue Jays	J.Beckett vs D.Eveland	Red Sox	58.68%	47.88%	BOS 13-12
Tigers	Rangers	J.Bonderman vs M.Harrison	Rangers	58.85%	54.45%	DET 8-6
Mariners	Royals	F.Hernandez vs K.Davies	Mariners	61.83%	59.57%	KC 3-1
Indians	Angels	D.Huff vs J.Weaver	Angels	63.64%	61.53%	LAA 5-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.18%

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Billingsley For .500?

April 25th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Billingsley vs S.Olsen	Dodgers	59.18%	53.38%	WAS 1-0
Padres	Reds	C.Richard vs H.Bailey	Padres	52.38%	50.57%	CIN 5-4
Pirates	Astros	C.Morton vs B.Myers	Astros	62.55%	56.79%	HOU 10-3
Cubs	Brewers	R.Wells vs D.Bush	Brewers	52.83%	46.46%	CHN 12-2
Cardinals	Giants	B.Penny vs M.Cain	Giants	54.13%	50.60%	STL 2-0
Phillies	DBacks	K.Kendrick vs R.Lopez	Phillies	53.70%	52.10%	ARI 8-6
Marlins	Rockies	C.Volstad vs J.De la Rosa	Rockies	61.09%	68.61%	COL 8-4
Braves	Mets	T.Hanson vs M.Pelfrey	Braves	53.27%	47.17%	NYN 1-0
Orioles	Red Sox	D.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	61.54%	59.89%	BAL 7-6
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Morrow vs D.Price	Rays	68.75%	60.99%	TB 6-0
Mariners	White Sox	J.Vargas vs J.Danks	White Sox	60.00%	59.66%	CHA 3-2
Twins	Royals	K.Slowey vs B.Bannister	Twins	56.90%	53.04%	KC 4-3
Tigers	Rangers	R.Porcello vs C.Lewis	Rangers	55.75%	53.98%	TEX 8-4
Yankees	Angels	J.Vazquez vs S.Kazmir	Yankees	56.90%	53.97%	LAA 8-4
Indians	A's	J.Masterson vs G.Gonzalez	A's	52.15%	52.37%	OAK 11-0

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 9.91%

Alternate Run Lines

Wine Cellar Dwellars

April 24th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Kershaw vs C.Stammen	Dodgers	62.12%	56.34%	LAN 4-3
Padres	Reds	W.LeBlanc vs J.Cueto	Reds	55.95%	56.51%	SD 5-0
Braves	Mets	J.Jurrjens vs J.Niese	Braves	57.45%	51.06%	NYN 3-1
Pirates	Astros	C.Jakubauskas vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	63.37%	67.83%	HOU 5-2
Cubs	Brewers	T.Lilly vs D.Davis	Cubs	52.61%	52.00%	CHN 5-1
Marlins	Rockies	N.Robertson vs A.Cook	Rockies	60.00%	58.66%	COL 8-1
Phillies	DBacks	N.Figueroa vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	50.98%	43.16%	PHI 3-2
Cardinals	Giants	A.Wainwright vs B.Zito	Cardinals	59.18%	55.02%	SF 2-0
Indians	A's	F.Carmona vs B.Anderson	A's	59.18%	63.97%	CLE 6-1
Yankees	Angels	A.Pettitte vs J.Pineiro	Yankees	53.49%	47.19%	NYA 7-1
Mariners	White Sox	D.Fister vs F.Garcia	White Sox	52.83%	53.44%	CHA 5-4
Blue Jays	Rays	R.Romero vs J.Niemann	Rays	58.51%	53.41%	TB 9-3
Twins	Royals	N.Blackburn vs L.Hochevar	Twins	54.95%	48.47%	MIN 9-7
Orioles	Red Sox	B.Matusz vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	66.89%	54.93%	BOS 7-6
Tigers	Rangers	D.Willis vs S.Feldman	Rangers	61.54%	60.07%	DET 8-4

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 12.62%

World Series Odds

Thanks God It's Nats Day

April 23rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Haeger vs L.Atilano	Dodgers	54.13%	48.73%	WAS 5-1
Braves	Mets	K.Kawakami vs J.Maine	Braves	56.52%	53.72%	NYN 5-2
Padres	Reds	K.Correia vs J.Cueto	Reds	53.70%	51.41%	SD 10-4
Pirates	Astros	P.Maholm vs R.Oswalt	Astros	61.54%	60.93%	HOU 4-3
Cubs	Brewers	R.Dempster vs J.Suppan	Cubs	54.34%	59.71%	CHN 8-1
Marlins	Rockies	R.Nolasco vs G.Smith	Marlins	52.38%	45.19%	PPD
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs K.Benson	Phillies	63.64%	63.35%	ARI 7-4
Cardinals	Giants	J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum	Giants	61.98%	65.12%	SF 4-1
Orioles	Red Sox	J.Guthrie vs J.Lester	Red Sox	69.23%	62.24%	BOS 4-3
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs M.Garza	Rays	69.23%	69.22%	TOR 6-5
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs S.Feldman	Rangers	54.55%	56.73%	TEX 5-4
Mariners	White Sox	R.Rowland vs G.Floyd	White Sox	54.55%	57.41%	CHA 7-6
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs G.Meche	Twins	57.45%	61.29%	MIN 8-3
Indians	A's	J.Westbrook vs J.Duchscherer	A's	59.35%	57.05%	OAK 10-0
Yankees	Angels	A.Burnett vs E.Santana	Yankees	56.14%	56.11%	NYA 6-4

Current ROI (as of Friday): 10.35%

Baseball Sportsbook

Dodgers Anxious To Take A Leake

April 22nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	V.Padilla vs M.Leake	Dodgers	52.38%	51.26%	CIN 8-5
Brewers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs D.McCutchen	Brewers	59.68%	60.79%	MIL 20-0
Rockies	Nationals	U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez	Rockies	62.69%	57.52%	COL 2-0
Cubs	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Santana	Mets	61.24%	56.94%	NYN 5-2
Phillies	Braves	J.Moyer vs D.Lowe	Braves	57.98%	49.12%	PHI 8-3
Marlins	Astros	A.Sanchez vs F.Paulino	Marlins	54.75%	45.05%	FLA 5-1
Indians	Twins	M.Talbot vs S.Baker	Twins	66.67%	67.45%	CLE 8-1
Yankees	A's	C.Sabathia vs D.Braden	Yankees	63.50%	60.48%	OAK 4-2
Rangers	Red Sox	C.Wilson vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	58.68%	48.91%	TEX 3-0
Rays	White Sox	J.Shields vs J.Peavy	White Sox	53.05%	53.36%	TB 10-2
Tigers	Angels	J.Verlander vs J.Saunders	Tigers	53.05%	55.54%	DET 5-4

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 9.36%

baseball betting

Nines Not Enough

April 21th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	H.Kuroda vs A.Harang	Dodgers	54.75%	59.10%	LAN 14-6
Giants	Padres	T.Wellemeyer vs J.Garland	Padres	55.56%	59.83%	SD 5-2
Brewers	Pirates	Y.Gallardo vs Z.Duke	Brewers	56.71%	49.92%	MIL 8-0
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs J.Lannan	Rockies	52.15%	52.11%	WAS 6-4
Cubs	Mets	C.Silva vs O.Perez	Mets	51.22%	49.78%	CHN 9-3
Phillies	Braves	R.Halladay vs T.Hudson	Phillies	59.18%	61.36%	PHI 2-0
Marlins	Astros	J.Johnson vs B.Norris	Marlins	58.85%	57.12%	HOU 5-4
Cardinals	Diamondbacks	C.Carpenter vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	59.51%	54.88%	STL 9-4
Royals	Blue Jays	Z.Greinke vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	51.46%	44.88%	KC 4-3
Rangers	Red Sox	M.Harrison vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	62.28%	62.18%	BOS 8-7
Indians	Twins	D.Huff vs F.Liriano	Twins	63.64%	59.62%	MIN 6-0
Rays	White Sox	W.Davis vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	52.61%	57.11%	TB 12-0
Yankees	A's	P.Hughes vs B.Sheets	Yankees	57.45%	53.36%	NYA 3-1
Tigers	Angels	J.Bonderman vs J.Weaver	Angels	62.41%	62.55%	DET 4-3
Orioles	Mariners	K.Millwood vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	65.52%	62.91%	SEA 4-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 10.67%

MLB Schedule

Dodgers Likely To Hit Homer

April 20th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey	Dodgers	55.95%	54.85%	CIN 11-9
Brewers	Pirates	D.Bush vs C.Morton	Brewers	55.36%	51.31%	MIL 8-1
Rockies	Nationals	J.De la Rosa vs S.Olsen	Rockies	57.81%	58.70%	COL 10-4
Cubs	Mets	C.Zambrano vs M.Pelfrey	Cubs	51.69%	47.65%	NYN 4-0
Phillies	Braves	K.Kendrick vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	56.87%	ATL 4-3
Marlins	Astros	C.Volstad vs B.Myers	Marlins	51.46%	48.52%	HOU 7-5
Cardinals	DBacks	K.Lohse vs D.Haren	DBacks	58.16%	57.89%	ARI 9-7
Giants	Padres	J.Sanchez vs M.Latos	Giants	52.61%	57.98%	SD 1-0
Royals	Blue Jays	K.Davies vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	57.26%	59.34%	TOR 4-3
Rangers	Red Sox	C.Lewis vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	57.26%	59.34%	BOS 7-6
Indians	Twins	J.Masterson vs K.Slowey	Twins	60.16%	57.35%	MIN 5-1
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs J.Danks	Rays	51.92%	48.28%	CHA 4-1
Yankees	A's	J.Vazquez vs G.Gonzalez	Yankees	62.55%	57.00%	TBD
Tigers	Angels	R.Porcello vs S.Kazmir	Angels	55.75%	52.50%	LAA 6-5
Orioles	Mariners	D.Hernandez vs J.Vargas	Mariners	56.90%	59.71%	SEA 3-1

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 12.74%

baseball handicappers

Nati Eve

April 19th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Nationals	A.Cook vs C.Stammen	Rockies	59.18%	49.80%	WAS 5-2
Cubs	Mets	R.Wells vs J.Niese	Cubs	54.13%	55.76%	NYN 6-1
Cardinals	DBacks	B.Penny vs R.Lopez	Cardinals	56.52%	54.60%	STL 4-2
Giants	Padres	M.Cain vs C.Richard	Giants	55.95%	48.54%	SD 3-2
Rays	Red Sox	J.Niemann vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	62.96%	56.76%	TB 8-2
Royals	Blue Jays	B.Bannister vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	53.49%	49.66%	TOR 8-1
Tigers	Angels	D.Willis vs J.Pineiro	Angels	62.26%	66.08%	LAA 2-0
Orioles	Mariners	B.Bergesen vs D.Fister	Mariners	60.16%	57.78%	SEA 8-2

Current ROI (as of Monday): 9.03%

MLB Odds

Kershaw Day

April 18th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	61.39%	61.88%	LAN 2-1
Reds	Pirates	B.Arroyo vs P.Maholm	Reds	53.70%	46.33%	PIT 5-3
Marlins	Phillies	N.Robertson vs C.Hamels	Phillies	66.67%	66.31%	FLA 2-0
Brewers	Nationals	D.Davis vs J.Marquis	Brewers	52.61%	44.22%	MIL 11-7
Rockies	Braves	G.Smith vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	59.18%	59.40%	ATL 4-3
Astros	Cubs	W.Rodriguez vs R.Dempster	Cubs	63.50%	61.20%	HOU 3-2
DBacks	Padres	I.Kennedy vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	52.38%	54.42%	SD 5-3
Mets	Cardinals	J.Maine vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	70.67%	69.94%	NYN 5-3
White Sox	Indians	G.Floyd vs F.Carmona	Indians	54.13%	42.99%	CLE 7-4
Rangers	Yankees	R.Harden vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	68.25%	68.30%	NYA 5-2
Angels	Blue Jays	E.Santana vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.14%	61.81%	LAA 3-1
Rays	Red Sox	M.Garza vs J.Lester	Red Sox	57.45%	59.09%	TB 7-1
Royals	Twins	L.Hochevar vs C.Pavano	Twins	65.28%	64.28%	KC 10-5
Orioles	A's	B.Matusz vs B.Anderson	A's	62.12%	60.41%	BAL 8-3
Tigers	Mariners	M.Scherzer vs I.Snell	Tigers	54.13%	50.92%	DET 4-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.50%

MLB Odds

Mission Improbable

April 17th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger	Giants	60.78%	61.05%	SF 9-0
Brewers	Nationals	R.Wolf vs L.Hernandez	Brewers	60.78%	52.69%	WAS 8-0
Astros	Cubs	R.Oswalt vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	56.52%	55.65%	HOU 4-3
Mets	Cardinals	J.Santana vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	51.22%	51.85%	NYN 2-1
Reds	Pirates	J.Cueto vs D.McCutchen	Reds	55.56%	57.25%	PIT 5-4
Marlins	Phillies	R.Nolasco vs J.Moyer	Phillies	51.22%	57.33%	FLA 5-1
Rockies	Braves	U.Jimenez vs K.Kawakami	Rockies	53.49%	55.12%	COL 4-0
DBacks	Padres	K.Benson vs K.Correia	Padres	56.52%	59.17%	SD 5-0
Rangers	Yankees	S.Feldman vs A.Burnett	Yankees	63.90%	61.85%	NYA 7-3
Angels	Blue Jays	J.Saunders vs B.Tallet	Angels	51.92%	44.46%	LAA 6-3
Royals	Twins	G.Meche vs N.Blackburn	Twins	63.10%	58.15%	MIN 6-5
Orioles	A's	J.Guthrie vs J.Duchscherer	A's	61.54%	53.93%	OAK 4-3
White Sox	Indians	J.Peavy vs J.Westbrook	White Sox	55.95%	53.22%	CLE 3-2
Rays	Red Sox	J.Shields vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	55.16%	51.71%	TB 6-5
Tigers	Mariners	J.Verlander vs R.Smith	Tigers	56.71%	55.18%	SEA 4-2

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 15.59%

MLB Odds

Haters Coming To Town

April 16th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Wellemeyer vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	58.68%	59.33%	LAN 10-8
Astros	Cubs	F.Paulino vs T.Gorzelanny	Cubs	63.10%	62.52%	CHN 7-2
Reds	Pirates	M.Leake vs Z.Duke	Pirates	51.46%	55.45%	PIT 4-3
Marlins	Phillies	A.Sanchez vs R.Halladay	Phillies	71.43%	72.36%	PHI 8-6
Brewers	Nationals	Y.Gallardo vs J.Lannan	Brewers	59.68%	48.65%	WAS 5-3
Rockies	Braves	J.Hammel vs D.Lowe	Braves	56.90%	47.02%	ATL 9-5
Mets	Cardinals	O.Perez vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	71.43%	62.91%	STL 4-3
DBacks	Padres	E.Jackson vs J.Garland	DBacks	51.92%	48.98%	SD 6-3
White Sox	Indians	M.Buehrle vs M.Talbot	White Sox	56.71%	57.35%	CLE 6-2
Rangers	Yankees	C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	67.74%	67.48%	TBD
Angels	Blue Jays	J.Weaver vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	50.98%	48.75%	LAA 7-5
Rays	Red Sox	W.Davis vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	64.91%	60.26%	TBD
Royals	Twins	Z.Greinke vs S.Baker	Twins	55.56%	52.09%	MIN 10-3
Orioles	A's	K.Millwood vs D.Braden	A's	58.68%	61.17%	OAK 4-2
Tigers	Mariners	J.Bonderman vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	64.41%	64.89%	SEA 11-3

Current ROI (as of Friday): 15.46%

MLB Odds

Taxation Without Ortizitation

April 15th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	D.Haren vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.38%	53.77%	LAN 6-5
Astros	Cardinals	B.Norris vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	69.70%	61.86%	HOU 5-1
Brewers	Cubs	J.Suppan vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	63.37%	63.38%	MIL 8-6
Nationals	Phillies	S.Olsen vs J.Happ	Phillies	69.70%	64.80%	WAS 7-5
Mets	Rockies	M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	66.78%	65.79%	NYN 5-0
Braves	Padres	T.Hudson vs M.Latos	Braves	55.36%	53.20%	ATL 6-2
Reds	Marlins	A.Harang vs J.Johnson	Marlins	59.51%	59.57%	FLA 10-2
Rangers	Indians	M.Harrison vs D.Huff	Rangers	53.27%	45.90%	CLE 3-2
Red Sox	Twins	T.Wakefield vs F.Liriano	Twins	55.16%	55.48%	MIN 8-0
Angels	Yankees	S.Kazmir vs P.Hughes	Yankees	62.96%	57.45%	NYA 6-2
White Sox	Blue Jays	F.Garcia vs D.Eveland	Blue Jays	53.49%	52.05%	TOR 7-3
Orioles	A's	D.Hernandez vs B.Sheets	A's	60.00%	56.44%	OAK 6-2

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 10.90%

MLB Odds

Outfield Of Dingers

April 14th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	R.Lopez vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	65.03%	63.91%	ARI 9-7
Brewers	Cubs	D.Bush vs R.Wells	Cubs	57.81%	57.85%	CHN 7-6
Pirates	Giants	C.Morton vs J.Sanchez	Giants	63.24%	60.83%	SF 6-0
Nationals	Phillies	C.Stammen vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	68.15%	57.85%	PHI 14-7
Reds	Marlins	H.Bailey vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.16%	48.96%	FLA 5-3
Astros	Cardinals	B.Myers vs B.Penny	Cardinals	68.75%	64.43%	STL 2-1
Mets	Rockies	J.Niese vs A.Cook	Rockies	64.54%	59.55%	COL 6-5
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs C.Richard	Braves	58.51%	48.69%	ATL 6-1
Royals	Tigers	K.Davies vs R.Porcello	Tigers	62.26%	58.51%	KC 7-3
Angels	Yankees	J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	66.89%	59.01%	LAA 5-3
Red Sox	Twins	J.Lackey vs K.Slowey	Red Sox	55.36%	52.76%	BOS 6-3
Rays	Orioles	D.Price vs B.Bergesen	Rays	57.81%	52.80%	TB 9-1
Rangers	Indians	C.Wilson vs J.Masterson	Rangers	51.46%	49.02%	TEX 6-2
White Sox	Blue Jays	J.Danks vs B.Morrow	White Sox	53.92%	53.24%	CHA 11-1
A's	Mariners	G.Gonzalez vs J.Vargas	A's	51.22%	46.72%	SEA 4-2

If you were betting today's games, here is the list of teams to bet on ranked in order of confidence level (biggest to smallest bet). Higher number = Highest bets
15 - SD
14 - WAS
13 - LAA
12 - CIN
11 - BAL
10 - SEA
9 - NYN
8 - HOU
7 - KC
6 - MIN
5 - CLE
4 - PIT
3 - CHN
2 - ARI
1 - TOR

Current ROI (as of Monday): 17.59%

MLB Odds

Kershaw The Golden Flower

April 13th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	I.Kennedy vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.55%	63.90%	LAN 9-5
Reds	Marlins	B.Arroyo vs N.Robertson	Marlins	54.34%	51.78%	CIN 10-8
Mets	Rockies	J.Maine vs G.Smith	Rockies	58.33%	60.05%	COL 11-3
Pirates	Giants	P.Maholm vs M.Cain	Giants	60.32%	60.25%	SF 6-5
Royals	Tigers	B.Bannister vs D.Willis	Tigers	57.26%	56.64%	DET 6-5
Angels	Yankees	E.Santana vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	63.64%	65.62%	NYA 7-5
Rays	Orioles	J.Niemann vs B.Matusz	Rays	53.49%	52.85%	TB 8-6
White Sox	Blue Jays	G.Floyd vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	52.15%	51.95%	TOR 4-2
A's	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	A's	55.36%	53.71%	SEA 3-0

Current ROI (as of Monday): 14.03%

MLB Odds

Shades Of Mediocrity

April 12th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Brewers	Cubs	D.Davis vs R.Dempster	Cubs	59.51%	63.57%	CHN 9-5
Nationals	Phillies	J.Marquis vs C.Hamels	Phillies	71.83%	66.91%	PHI 7-4
Astros	Cardinals	W.Rodriguez vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	67.32%	61.13%	STL 5-0
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs K.Correia	Braves	59.68%	51.71%	SD 17-2
Reds	Marlins	J.Cueto vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	59.51%	59.45%	CIN 6-5
Pirates	Giants	R.Ohlendorf vs B.Zito	Giants	62.41%	63.69%	SF 9-3
Royals	Tigers	L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	65.16%	61.45%	KC 10-5
Rangers	Indians	R.Harden vs F.Carmona	Rangers	52.61%	51.43%	TEX 4-2
Red Sox	Twins	J.Lester vs C.Pavano	Red Sox	58.85%	48.68%	MIN 5-2
A's	Mariners	J.Duchscherer vs R.Smith	Mariners	53.27%	59.30%	OAK 4-0
Rays	Orioles	M.Garza vs J.Guthrie	Rays	59.35%	55.28%	TB 5-1
White Sox	Blue Jays	J.Peavy vs B.Tallet	White Sox	55.36%	51.38%	CHA 8-7

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.68%

MLB Odds

Torre! Torre! Tora!

The bombing of the Dodgers bullpen...

April 11th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Haeger vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	55.16%	51.86%	FLA 7-6
Padres	Rockies	J.Garland vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	70.59%	66.07%	COL 4-2
Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum	Giants	65.87%	64.18%	SF 6-3
Nationals	Mets	L.Hernandez vs J.Santana	Mets	70.15%	56.14%	WAS 5-2
Cubs	Reds	T.Gorzelanny vs M.Leake	Reds	53.92%	49.63%	CIN 3-1
Phillies	Astros	R.Halladay vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	64.66%	58.44%	PHI 2-1
Cardinals	Brewers	C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf	Cardinals	59.84%	50.43%	MIL 8-7
Pirates	DBacks	Z.Duke vs E.Jackson	DBacks	67.85%	58.81%	ARI 15-6
Indians	Tigers	J.Westbrook vs J.Verlander	Tigers	65.28%	70.48%	DET 9-8
Blue Jays	Orioles	S.Marcum vs K.Millwood	Orioles	53.70%	57.15%	TOR 5-2
Yankees	Rays	A.Burnett vs J.Shields	Rays	52.61%	54.43%	NYA 7-3
Mariners	Rangers	I.Snell vs S.Feldman	Rangers	59.51%	58.22%	TEX 9-2
Red Sox	Royals	C.Buchholz vs G.Meche	Red Sox	58.33%	52.88%	BOS 8-6
Twins	White Sox	N.Blackburn vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	54.75%	54.22%	CHA 5-4
A's	Angels	D.Braden vs J.Saunders	Angels	56.14%	53.25%	OAK 9-4

Current ROI: 11.41%

MLB Odds

Third Wins A Charm

April 10th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	V.Padilla vs J.Johnson	Marlins	58.85%	56.56%	FLA 7-6
Padres	Rockies	M.Latos vs J.Hammel	Rockies	60.00%	66.08%	SD 5-4
Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Wellemeyer	Braves	54.95%	50.22%	ATL 7-2
Nationals	Mets	J.Lannan vs O.Perez	Mets	54.95%	48.40%	WAS 4-3
Cubs	Reds	C.Zambrano vs A.Harang	Reds	53.92%	48.19%	CHN 4-3
Phillies	Astros	J.Moyer vs F.Paulino	Phillies	56.90%	58.30%	PHI 9-6
Cardinals	Brewers	J.Garcia vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	56.52%	57.52%	STL 7-1
Pirates	DBacks	D.McCutchen vs D.Haren	DBacks	72.14%	69.03%	PIT 6-3
Indians	Tigers	M.Talbot vs J.Bonderman	Tigers	60.47%	57.40%	DET 4-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	D.Eveland vs D.Hernandez	Orioles	57.98%	49.13%	TOR 3-0
Yankees	Rays	C.Sabathia vs W.Davis	Yankees	57.67%	54.67%	NYA 10-0
Mariners	Rangers	F.Hernandez vs M.Harrison	Mariners	59.02%	56.64%	SEA 4-3
Red Sox	Royals	J.Beckett vs Z.Greinke	Red Sox	53.92%	45.05%	BOS 8-3
Twins	White Sox	S.Baker vs F.Garcia	Twins	55.16%	52.06%	MIN 2-1
A's	Angels	B.Sheets vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.02%	60.88%	LAA 4-3

Current ROI: 15.90%

MLB Odds

Big In Florida

April 9th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Marlins	H.Kuroda vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	54.13%	56.06%	LAN 7-3
Padres	Rockies	C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	63.24%	63.69%	COL 7-0
Braves	Giants	T.Hudson vs J.Sanchez	Braves	54.75%	42.62%	SF 5-4
Nationals	Mets	G.Mock vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	57.26%	55.23%	NYN 8-2
Cubs	Reds	C.Silva vs H.Bailey	Reds	55.95%	56.15%	CIN 5-4
Phillies	Astros	J.Happ vs B.Norris	Phillies	59.84%	57.65%	PHI 8-0
Cardinals	Brewers	K.Lohse vs D.Bush	Cardinals	51.22%	46.06%	STL 5-4
Pirates	DBacks	C.Morton vs R.Lopez	DBacks	57.26%	55.55%	ARI 9-1
Indians	Tigers	D.Huff vs R.Porcello	Tigers	58.33%	52.24%	DET 5-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	B.Morrow vs B.Bergesen	Orioles	57.08%	59.66%	TOR 7-6
Yankees	Rays	J.Vazquez vs D.Price	Yankees	52.38%	53.89%	TB 9-3
Mariners	Rangers	J.Vargas vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.84%	52.30%	TEX 6-2
Red Sox	Royals	T.Wakefield vs K.Davies	Red Sox	59.51%	53.62%	KC 4-3
Twins	White Sox	F.Liriano vs J.Danks	White Sox	52.15%	54.23%	MIN 4-3
A's	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs M.Palmer	Angels	56.71%	55.36%	OAK 10-4

Current ROI: 24.65%

MLB Odds

Leaving Loss Pittsburgh

April 8th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Billingsley vs P.Maholm	Dodgers	59.18%	52.14%	LAN 10-2
Phillies	Nationals	K.Kendrick vs C.Stammen	Phillies	58.68%	51.06%	WAS 6-5
Marlins	Mets	N.Robertson vs J.Niese	Mets	54.13%	54.07%	FLA 3-1
Cardinals	Reds	B.Penny vs B.Arroyo	Cardinals	51.92%	46.25%	CIN 2-1
Cubs	Braves	R.Wells vs T.Hanson	Braves	65.52%	55.84%	CHN 2-0
Orioles	Rays	B.Matusz vs J.Niemann	Rays	63.50%	63.22%	BAL 5-4
Twins	Angels	K.Slowey vs J.Pineiro	Angels	54.95%	61.56%	MIN 10-1
Mariners	A's	D.Fister vs B.Anderson	A's	62.26%	61.26%	OAK 6-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	R.Romero vs C.Wilson	Rangers	61.39%	53.40%	TOR 3-1
Tigers	Royals	D.Willis vs B.Bannister	Royals	53.49%	54.63%	DET 7-3
Indians	White Sox	J.Masterson vs G.Floyd	White Sox	57.45%	58.65%	CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 11.52%

MLB Odds

Kershaw For The Win?

April 7th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Kershaw vs R.Ohlendorf	Dodgers	61.09%	60.72%	PIT 4-3
Giants	Astros	M.Cain vs B.Myers	Giants	59.68%	54.82%	SF 10-4
Rockies	Brewers	A.Cook vs D.Davis	Brewers	52.15%	53.28%	MIL 5-4
Phillies	Nationals	C.Hamels vs J.Marquis	Phillies	61.54%	54.78%	PHI 8-4
Marlins	Mets	R.Nolasco vs J.Maine	Marlins	53.92%	53.48%	FLA 7-6
Cardinals	Reds	A.Wainwright vs J.Cueto	Cardinals	57.26%	56.84%	STL 6-3
Cubs	Braves	R.Dempster vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	59.68%	54.04%	ATL 3-2
Padres	DBacks	K.Correia vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	58.16%	47.48%	ARI 5-3
Yankees	Red Sox	A.Pettitte vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	59.02%	55.72%	NYA 3-1
Orioles	Rays	J.Guthrie vs M.Garza	Rays	67.95%	63.46%	TB 4-3
Twins	Angels	C.Pavano vs E.Santana	Angels	59.68%	49.22%	MIN 4-2
Mariners	A's	R.Smith vs J.Duchscherer	A's	55.16%	48.90%	OAK 6-5
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Tallet vs R.Harden	Rangers	64.91%	56.56%	TOR 7-4
Tigers	Royals	M.Scherzer vs L.Hochevar	Tigers	56.14%	51.28%	KC 3-2
Indians	White Sox	F.Carmona vs J.Peavy	White Sox	61.83%	59.94%	CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 42.3%

MLB Odds

The Seven Simulations

April 6th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Astros	B.Zito vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	56.33%	54.80%	SF 3-0
Rockies	Brewers	G.Smith vs R.Wolf	Brewers	58.16%	61.48%	MIL 7-5
Padres	DBacks	C.Young vs E.Jackson	DBacks	60.32%	60.41%	SD 6-3
Yankees	Red Sox	A.Burnett vs J.Lester	Red Sox	58.33%	59.50%	NYA 6-4
Orioles	Rays	K.Millwood vs J.Shields	Rays	63.64%	60.83%	TB 4-3
Twins	Angels	N.Blackburn vs J.Saunders	Angels	55.36%	51.03%	MIN 5-3
Mariners	A's	I.Snell vs D.Braden	A's	55.95%	56.71%	OAK 2-1

MLB Odds

First Of Manny Wins

April 5th, Dodgers vs Pirates

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	V.Padilla vs Z.Duke	Dodgers	57.08%	51.08%	PIT 11-5

MLB Odds

Realigned - And It Feels So Good

With all the recent talk about realignment of the baseball divisions, I decided to have a little fun with the topic. The following realignment idea is not something that I am necessarily in favor of, but something that I think could work though the purists would likely think that it is evil. My realignment proposal is one of relegation. Similar in some ways to the English Premier Soccer League in that successful teams are moved up and unsuccessful ones moved down. Mine would add a few twists and would give teams even in the lower division(s) a chance for glory. Even though a handful of teams in MLB realistically have a very slim chance of making the playoffs and winning the World Series, they do have a chance and should be given one. Without that chance, chances are their attendance would dry up and the team would likely fold.

My proposal has three tiers of divisions. Tier #1 would be for the best teams, Tier #2 for the mediocre teams and Tier #3 for the worst teams. Tier #1 would have 12 teams, Tier #2 would have 10 teams and Tier #3 would have 8 teams. Teams would play more games against teams from their same tier, but would play games against teams in every tier. The post-season would have 8 teams, just like the current setup has. The top five teams from Tier #1 would make the playoffs (41.7%). The top two teams from Tier #2 would make the playoffs (20.0%). The two top teams in Tier #3 would have a play in game into the playoffs, giving them one playoff birth (12.5%).

The playoff seedings would be as follows:
(T3#1 vs T3#2) vs T1#1
T1#4 vs T1#5
T2#1 vs T1#3
T2#2 vs T1#2


The bottom two teams from each division are moved down a tier. The top two teams from each division are moved up a tier. This is just a rough draft and the details would need to be worked out. For example, what would you do with the DH. My suggestion would be to let the home team decide whether or not the DH would be used in any game.

The 2010 alignment would look something like this...

Tier #1	Tier #2	Tier #3
Yankees	Mariners	Mets
Angels	Braves	Diamondbacks
Red Sox	Cubs	Indians
Phillies	Brewers	Royals
Dodgers	White Sox	Padres
Cardinals	Reds	Orioles
Rays	A's	Pirates
Twins	Blue Jays	Nationals
Rockies	Rangers
Tigers	Astros
Marlins
Giants

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