Nobody likes surprises, right? Unless it is your birthday and then maybe you do. But when it comes to park factors (runs) it is often difficult to nail down a teams park factor and randomness plays havoc with what smart people think the park factors should be. As you know, I keep track of the runs scored portion of a teams park factor along with a Vegas park factor that I reverse engineer from each teams over/under, where I replace the actual runs scored in each game with the Vegas over/under total. This gives me another aspect of the park factor. The aspect of the wisdom of the crowd of the people who are actually risking their hard earned money on knowing how many runs scored each game is likely to have. I love comparing things like over/unders, expected win totals and player projections to the people who risk their money on each game. What I have listed in the table below is each teams current 2014 park factor for runs scored along with their Vegas park factor. The table is sorted by the most similar park factors with the biggest surprises at the bottom of the table. Enjoy!
|Team||Actual PF||Vegas PF||2014 Delta|