Wednesday, May 02, 2012

May 3rd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHNCINRyan Dempster vs Homer BaileyCIN58.42%60.16%TBD
CLECHAJustin Masterson vs John DanksCHA53.16%51.48%TBD
NYAKCDavid Phelps vs Danny DuffyNYA55.06%52.44%TBD
PHIATLJoe Blanton vs Randall DelgadoATL54.65%56.27%TBD
SEATBKevin Millwood vs Jeff NiemannTB64.60%62.33%TBD
TORLAABrandon Morrow vs Dan HarenLAA55.46%62.62%TBD
PITSTLErik Bedard vs Jake WestbrookSTL59.92%56.88%TBD
FLASFAnibal Sanchez vs Ryan VogelsongFLA50.86%55.19%TBD
ARIWASIan Kennedy vs Ross DetwilerARI50.86%51.68%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Curious if you have tested your sim's performance vs. Vegas odds. Say, by recording record when probabilites differ by > x%. Thanks.

Xeifrank said...

Yes, it has been back-tested and tracked for the current year vs Vegas odds.

Anonymous said...

If you get a chance, can you post the results?

Xeifrank said...

I can't publish too much detail, otherwise I lose my edge. But ROI so far this season is 6.2%. I expect it to regress to the 3-4% area by the end of the season. I use a Kelly system for determining units.