Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Simulation for World Series, Game #2

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Phillies vs Rays B.Myers vs J.Shields Rays 63.06% 9.75 6 Rays
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
Las Vegas Hilton Odds

What's riding on tonight's game?
Situation Rays Odds to win W.S. Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds 46.78% 53.22%
Rays Win Game #2 59.97% 40.03%
Phillies Win Game #2 35.39% 74.85%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.

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