Monday, September 22, 2008

Who Will Win The NL West? - DOUBLE UPDATED

I am using my simulator to determine the Dodgers' odds of winning the NL West. I simulated each remaining game for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, using what should be the likely starters for the remainder of games. I then use a random number generator from 0 to 1 to determine if each game is a win or a loss for each of the two teams. I do this 1 million times, calculating how many times each team ends up winning the NL West. If the two teams tie for first place, I then do the same thing for a 163rd game. Below is a table showing the win probabilities and likely pitching matchups for each remaining game, with the results of my simulation.
Date Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Win Probability Result
9/23 Padres Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs C.Billingsley .7087 Win
9/23 DBacks Cardinals R.Johnson vs K.Lohse .4492 Loss
9/24 Padres Dodgers S.Estes vs C.Kershaw .6811 Win
9/24 DBacks Cardinals M.Scherzer vs A.Wainwright .4441 Loss
9/25 Padres Dodgers J.Peavy vs G.Maddux .6211 TBD
9/25 DBacks Cardinals D.Davis vs J.Pineiro .4841 Loss
9/26 Dodgers Giants H.Kuroda vs B.Hennessey .6400 TBD
9/26 Rockies DBacks J.Hirsh vs D.Haren .6566 TBD
9/27 Dodgers Giants D.Lowe vs M.Cain .5696 TBD
9/27 Rockies DBacks G.Reynolds vs B.Webb .7505 TBD
9/28 Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum .4998 TBD
9/28 Rockies DBacks J.Jimenez vs R.Johnson .5384 TBD
9/29 DBacks Dodgers M.Scherzer vs C.Kershaw .5499 TBD
Note: All win probabilities are listed for the Dodgers or Diamondbacks, and for the Dodgers on the 9/29 game.
Team Divisions Titles
Dodgers 100.00%
DBacks 0.00%
1 million iterations were ran.

Update: It's all over folks. The Cardinals defeated the Diamondbacks three times in a row and on September 25th eliminated the Diamondbacks from contention. Good luck to the Dodgers in the playoffs.

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