|2007 Dodgers, BaseRunning Study|
|Player||Average LI||Ave LI on SB||Ave LI on CS||Total WPA||Runs Added||Linear Weights Wins||Linear Weights Runs||WPA / SB Attempt|
Ok, now what does all of this tell us. It says that Juan Pierre's base stealing exploits were worth nearly 6.8 runs or 0.648 wins last year. So while Juan Pierre is about 0.21 wins below "replacement level" as a left fielder his base running abilities are the only thing keeping him in the league.
Russell Martin and Matt Kemp are attempting steals in the highest leveraged situations on average (1.366 and 1.330 respectively). Juan Pierre is a fairly close third and Rafael Furcal a distant 4th. Furcal does a good job of picking and choosing when to steal, but can't always be counted on to steal in a high leverage situation. Russell Martin, while the bravest base stealer on the Dodgers, was not very efficient and probably would've been better off staying put a little more, especially in high leverage situations. Juan Pierre and Matt Kemp had the best success at stealing bases in higher leverage situations and getting caught only in lower leverage situations on average. Rafael Furcal made up a lot of ground by only getting caught 6 times, while swiping 22 bags. Let's take a quick look at the extremes in LI on successful and unsuccessful stolen base attempts.
|Player||(High LI) SB||(High LI) CS|
In conclusion the Dodgers have three good base stealers, Pierre, Furcal and Kemp. Russell Martin would be advised not to steal in such high leverage situations. He has a propensity for being caught in high leverage attempts. I see nothing wrong with allowing the other three to steal when appropriate.