Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, June 28th

Simulations for Thursday, June 28th. Current prediction record is 124-88.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome
Dodgers vs DBacks R.Wolf vs R.Johnson DBacks 56.35 Dodgers
Rockies vs Astros A.Cook vs R.Oswalt Rockies 50.95 Astros

3 comments:

kegtron said...

Webmeister, have you ever checked the vegas odds to see how your sim would stack up against a sportsbook?

My book has COL at +153, which means (according to them) they have a 39.5% chance to win. Obviously, they overestimate Oswalt.

The book has ARI at -137 which = 57.8% chance to win. Slightly overvaluing the Dbacks but not by much.

I'd probably lay off ARI, but bet heavily on COL. Just thought you might find this interesting. I check out the blog everyday, keep up the good work.

Webmeister said...

Thanks for the post kegtron. I've taken a look at the vegas lines once in a while to see how the odds stacked up against the simulators win probability. Perhaps some day I will start posting the vegas line along with the simulator data. It's a good idea. I think putting a little money on Colorado as "underdogs" would be a decent little bet.
vr, Xeifrank

Griffster said...

A quick line to say I drop in every so often to check you simulations. Thanks for keeping it up!