Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, June 28th

Simulations for Thursday, June 28th. Current prediction record is 124-88.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome
Dodgers vs DBacks R.Wolf vs R.Johnson DBacks 56.35 Dodgers
Rockies vs Astros A.Cook vs R.Oswalt Rockies 50.95 Astros


kegtron said...

Webmeister, have you ever checked the vegas odds to see how your sim would stack up against a sportsbook?

My book has COL at +153, which means (according to them) they have a 39.5% chance to win. Obviously, they overestimate Oswalt.

The book has ARI at -137 which = 57.8% chance to win. Slightly overvaluing the Dbacks but not by much.

I'd probably lay off ARI, but bet heavily on COL. Just thought you might find this interesting. I check out the blog everyday, keep up the good work.

Webmeister said...

Thanks for the post kegtron. I've taken a look at the vegas lines once in a while to see how the odds stacked up against the simulators win probability. Perhaps some day I will start posting the vegas line along with the simulator data. It's a good idea. I think putting a little money on Colorado as "underdogs" would be a decent little bet.
vr, Xeifrank

Griffster said...

A quick line to say I drop in every so often to check you simulations. Thanks for keeping it up!