Monday, January 22, 2007

ZIPS Simulation: Rockies vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column.
Rockies vs Dodgers
Pitcher  Cook Francis Fogg Kim Lopez
Schmidt .645 .652 .687 .682 .697
Lowe .593 .613 .639 .616 .648
Penny .614 .621 .660 .614 .654
Wolf .569 .593 .617 .604 .629
Billingsley .602 .604 .661 .610 .665
Guo .622 .637 .679 .668 .692
Standard error: 0.01

  > .675 > .650 > .625 > .600 > .575 > .550 > .525 > .500
Rockies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dodgers 5 6 5 11 2 1 0 0

6 comments:

Steve Sax said...

Thanks for the headsup comment posted on SoSG. I don't think I had looked at DodgerSims as of yet, and this is really interesting data. Looks like we could fare well vs. the Rockies, if your simulation is on the mark. Can't wait to comb through the rest of it!

One question though, who is this "Guo"?

jk, SoSG Steve Sax

Steve Sax said...

Xeifrank,

Would you mind changing the sidebar to our blog's full name, Sons of Steve Garvey?

Thank you.

Steve Sax said...

Thanks, Xeifrank!

--Steve

Steve Sax said...

P.S. (And sorry to dominate the postings.) I think the sims thing is very interesting. Is it possible that you could post a recap of how "accurate" the sim program was at predicting outcomes during last year? As a newbie to your site, that would be helpful to know. Thanks

Webmeister said...

Saxxy, I didn't sim enough games last year to do a very thorough analysis on how well the program predicted winners. Plus I've made some minor modifications (upgrades hopefully!) to the program since last October. The sim did correctly predict three out of four winners of the divisional series and the Cards to beat the Tigers. It didn't get each individual game correct, but predicted winners of most of the playoff series' last year. I will run sims of Dodger games (and perhaps other NL West teams) during the season the day of the game, post results and keep track of how well the sim outcomes do. At some point during the season I will replace the ZIPS projections, with actual 2007 data. I have a few other usages for the simulator that I will unvail shortly. Next up will be the Giants vs Padres pitching matchups.
vr, Xei

Steve Sax said...

Xeifrank, just wanted to make sure you saw my comment to the Guo postings. Thanks for being a good sport about all of this--