Friday, April 30, 2010

Duke It Out



May 1st, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Pirates Dodgers Z.Duke vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 63.90% 58.92% LAN 5-1
DBacks Cubs D.Haren vs C.Silva Cubs 50.98% 55.37% CHN 7-5
Reds Cardinals H.Bailey vs K.Lohse Cardinals 64.03% 57.65% CIN 6-3
Astros Braves W.Rodriguez vs T.Hudson Braves 65.87% 52.32% ATL 10-1
Mets Phillies M.Pelfrey vs R.Halladay Phillies 67.53% 63.53% PHI 10-0
Rockies Giants E.Rogers vs M.Cain Giants 59.51% 58.33% SF 6-1
Nationals Marlins C.Stammen vs C.Volstad Marlins 61.54% 49.00% FLA 7-1
Brewers Padres Y.Gallardo vs M.Latos Brewers 55.95% 53.40% MIL 2-1
White Sox Yankees J.Danks vs J.Vazquez Yankees 60.16% 56.73% CHA 7-6
A's Blue Jays G.Gonzalez vs D.Eveland Blue Jays 54.13% 57.07% OAK 4-3
Rangers Mariners M.Harrison vs F.Hernandez Mariners 69.33% 66.04% TEX 6-3
Royals Rays K.Davies vs D.Price Rays 72.22% 66.14% KC 4-2
Twins Indians J.Manship vs J.Masterson Indians 51.92% 54.83% CLE 5-4
Red Sox Orioles D.Matsuzaka vs B.Bergesen Red Sox 61.69% 51.05% BAL 12-9

Current ROI (as of Friday): 8.95%

Sports Betting Professor Review

Dodgers Are Strange



April 30th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Pirates Dodgers C.Morton vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 69.23% 68.34% LAN 6-2
DBacks Cubs R.Lopez vs R.Wells Cubs 60.32% 67.72% CHN 11-5
Mets Phillies J.Niese vs K.Kendrick Phillies 59.84% 52.69% NYN 9-1
Nationals Marlins S.Olsen vs R.Nolasco Marlins 68.75% 57.38% WAS 7-1
Astros Braves B.Myers vs T.Hanson Braves 66.67% 63.29% ATL 4-2
Reds Cardinals J.Cueto vs B.Penny Cardinals 66.55% 63.49% CIN 3-2
Brewers Padres D.Bush vs C.Richard Padres 56.52% 60.76% SD 3-0
Rockies Giants A.Cook vs B.Zito Giants 57.98% 57.72% SF 5-2
Red Sox Orioles J.Lackey vs D.Hernandez Red Sox 60.00% 57.11% BAL 5-4
White Sox Yankees F.Garcia vs A.Pettitte Yankees 71.43% 67.61% NYA 6-4
Twins Indians K.Slowey vs F.Carmona Twins 51.92% 52.17% MIN 9-3
Angels Tigers J.Pineiro vs R.Porcello Angels 53.49% 58.36% DET 10-6
A's Blue Jays T.Cahill vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 55.95% 57.92% TOR 10-2
Royals Rays B.Bannister vs J.Niemann Rays 70.85% 63.42% KC 3-2
Rangers Mariners C.Lewis vs C.Lee Mariners 59.51% 63.49% TEX 2-0

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 5.47%

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Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Last Place Team Returns Home



April 29th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Pirates Dodgers B.Buress vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 70.67% 73.26% PIT 2-0
Braves Cardinals J.Jurrjens vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 65.64% 62.75% STL 10-4
DBacks Cubs I.Kennedy vs T.Lilly Cubs 61.98% 67.95% ARI 13-5
Reds Astros B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt Astros 62.41% 58.33% CIN 4-2
Brewers Padres D.Davis vs W.LeBlanc Padres 57.45% 54.14% SD 9-0
Twins Tigers C.Pavano vs D.Willis Twins 56.90% 59.48% DET 3-0
White Sox Rangers G.Floyd vs S.Feldman Rangers 56.52% 50.75% CHA 7-5
Yankees Orioles A.Burnett vs B.Matusz Yankees 63.24% 51.89% NYA 4-0
A's Blue Jays J.Duchscherer vs R.Romero Blue Jays 55.36% 60.63% TOR 6-3
Royals Rays L.Hochevar vs M.Garza Rays 70.59% 65.10% TB 11-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 7.72%

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Tuesday, April 27, 2010

El Y



April 28th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Mets J.Ely vs J.Maine Mets 50.49% 51.35% NYN 7-3
Padres Marlins K.Correia vs N.Robertson Padres 57.08% 51.62% SD 6-4
Pirates Brewers P.Maholm vs C.Narveson Brewers 58.85% 52.25% PIT 6-5
Nationals Cubs L.Atilano vs R.Dempster Cubs 66.10% 66.70% WAS 3-2
DBacks Rockies K.Benson vs G.Smith Rockies 58.33% 61.15% ARI 12-11
Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum Giants 58.68% 61.86% PHI 7-6
Reds Astros M.Leake vs F.Paulino Astros 52.61% 57.14% CIN 6-4
Braves Cardinals K.Kawakami vs J.Garcia Cardinals 59.18% 54.40% STL 6-0
Mariners Royals R.Smith vs G.Meche Mariners 52.38% 48.80% SEA 6-5
Yankees Orioles C.Sabathia vs J.Guthrie Yankees 68.15% 64.87% NYA 8-3
Twins Tigers S.Baker vs M.Scherzer Tigers 51.46% 47.91% DET 11-6
Indians Angels J.Westbrook vs E.Santana Angels 61.54% 60.14% LAA 4-3
A's Rays D.Braden vs J.Shields Rays 60.47% 55.88% TB 10-3

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 9.51%

Bookmaker bonus

Take Two Bites Out Of Big Apple



April 27th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Mets H.Kuroda vs J.Santana Mets 57.45% 52.14% NYN 4-0
Dodgers Mets C.Haeger vs O.Perez Mets 52.15% 57.84% NYN 10-5

Current ROI (as of Monday): 11.09%

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Sunday, April 25, 2010

On Broadway



April 26th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Mets H.Kuroda vs O.Perez Dodgers 56.52% 55.16% PPD
Padres Marlins M.Latos vs J.Johnson Marlins 59.68% 64.67% FLA 10-1
Nationals Cubs J.Lannan vs C.Silva Cubs 60.16% 60.04% CHN 4-3
Pirates Brewers Z.Duke vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 67.21% 63.05% MIL 17-3
Braves Cardinals T.Hudson vs K.Lohse Cardinals 53.49% 55.21% STL 4-3
DBacks Rockies D.Haren vs J.Hammel DBacks 51.92% 38.17% ARI 5-3
Phillies Giants R.Halladay vs J.Sanchez Phillies 60.63% 51.36% SF 5-1
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Beckett vs D.Eveland Red Sox 58.68% 47.88% BOS 13-12
Tigers Rangers J.Bonderman vs M.Harrison Rangers 58.85% 54.45% DET 8-6
Mariners Royals F.Hernandez vs K.Davies Mariners 61.83% 59.57% KC 3-1
Indians Angels D.Huff vs J.Weaver Angels 63.64% 61.53% LAA 5-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.18%

baseball whip

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Billingsley For .500?



April 25th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals C.Billingsley vs S.Olsen Dodgers 59.18% 53.38% WAS 1-0
Padres Reds C.Richard vs H.Bailey Padres 52.38% 50.57% CIN 5-4
Pirates Astros C.Morton vs B.Myers Astros 62.55% 56.79% HOU 10-3
Cubs Brewers R.Wells vs D.Bush Brewers 52.83% 46.46% CHN 12-2
Cardinals Giants B.Penny vs M.Cain Giants 54.13% 50.60% STL 2-0
Phillies DBacks K.Kendrick vs R.Lopez Phillies 53.70% 52.10% ARI 8-6
Marlins Rockies C.Volstad vs J.De la Rosa Rockies 61.09% 68.61% COL 8-4
Braves Mets T.Hanson vs M.Pelfrey Braves 53.27% 47.17% NYN 1-0
Orioles Red Sox D.Hernandez vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 61.54% 59.89% BAL 7-6
Blue Jays Rays B.Morrow vs D.Price Rays 68.75% 60.99% TB 6-0
Mariners White Sox J.Vargas vs J.Danks White Sox 60.00% 59.66% CHA 3-2
Twins Royals K.Slowey vs B.Bannister Twins 56.90% 53.04% KC 4-3
Tigers Rangers R.Porcello vs C.Lewis Rangers 55.75% 53.98% TEX 8-4
Yankees Angels J.Vazquez vs S.Kazmir Yankees 56.90% 53.97% LAA 8-4
Indians A's J.Masterson vs G.Gonzalez A's 52.15% 52.37% OAK 11-0

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 9.91%

Alternate Run Lines

Friday, April 23, 2010

Wine Cellar Dwellars



April 24th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals C.Kershaw vs C.Stammen Dodgers 62.12% 56.34% LAN 4-3
Padres Reds W.LeBlanc vs J.Cueto Reds 55.95% 56.51% SD 5-0
Braves Mets J.Jurrjens vs J.Niese Braves 57.45% 51.06% NYN 3-1
Pirates Astros C.Jakubauskas vs W.Rodriguez Astros 63.37% 67.83% HOU 5-2
Cubs Brewers T.Lilly vs D.Davis Cubs 52.61% 52.00% CHN 5-1
Marlins Rockies N.Robertson vs A.Cook Rockies 60.00% 58.66% COL 8-1
Phillies DBacks N.Figueroa vs I.Kennedy DBacks 50.98% 43.16% PHI 3-2
Cardinals Giants A.Wainwright vs B.Zito Cardinals 59.18% 55.02% SF 2-0
Indians A's F.Carmona vs B.Anderson A's 59.18% 63.97% CLE 6-1
Yankees Angels A.Pettitte vs J.Pineiro Yankees 53.49% 47.19% NYA 7-1
Mariners White Sox D.Fister vs F.Garcia White Sox 52.83% 53.44% CHA 5-4
Blue Jays Rays R.Romero vs J.Niemann Rays 58.51% 53.41% TB 9-3
Twins Royals N.Blackburn vs L.Hochevar Twins 54.95% 48.47% MIN 9-7
Orioles Red Sox B.Matusz vs J.Lackey Red Sox 66.89% 54.93% BOS 7-6
Tigers Rangers D.Willis vs S.Feldman Rangers 61.54% 60.07% DET 8-4

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 12.62%

World Series Odds

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Thanks God It's Nats Day



April 23rd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals C.Haeger vs L.Atilano Dodgers 54.13% 48.73% WAS 5-1
Braves Mets K.Kawakami vs J.Maine Braves 56.52% 53.72% NYN 5-2
Padres Reds K.Correia vs J.Cueto Reds 53.70% 51.41% SD 10-4
Pirates Astros P.Maholm vs R.Oswalt Astros 61.54% 60.93% HOU 4-3
Cubs Brewers R.Dempster vs J.Suppan Cubs 54.34% 59.71% CHN 8-1
Marlins Rockies R.Nolasco vs G.Smith Marlins 52.38% 45.19% PPD
Phillies DBacks C.Hamels vs K.Benson Phillies 63.64% 63.35% ARI 7-4
Cardinals Giants J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum Giants 61.98% 65.12% SF 4-1
Orioles Red Sox J.Guthrie vs J.Lester Red Sox 69.23% 62.24% BOS 4-3
Blue Jays Rays B.Cecil vs M.Garza Rays 69.23% 69.22% TOR 6-5
Tigers Rangers M.Scherzer vs S.Feldman Rangers 54.55% 56.73% TEX 5-4
Mariners White Sox R.Rowland vs G.Floyd White Sox 54.55% 57.41% CHA 7-6
Twins Royals C.Pavano vs G.Meche Twins 57.45% 61.29% MIN 8-3
Indians A's J.Westbrook vs J.Duchscherer A's 59.35% 57.05% OAK 10-0
Yankees Angels A.Burnett vs E.Santana Yankees 56.14% 56.11% NYA 6-4

Current ROI (as of Friday): 10.35%

Baseball Sportsbook

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Dodgers Anxious To Take A Leake



April 22nd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Reds V.Padilla vs M.Leake Dodgers 52.38% 51.26% CIN 8-5
Brewers Pirates R.Wolf vs D.McCutchen Brewers 59.68% 60.79% MIL 20-0
Rockies Nationals U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez Rockies 62.69% 57.52% COL 2-0
Cubs Mets T.Gorzelanny vs J.Santana Mets 61.24% 56.94% NYN 5-2
Phillies Braves J.Moyer vs D.Lowe Braves 57.98% 49.12% PHI 8-3
Marlins Astros A.Sanchez vs F.Paulino Marlins 54.75% 45.05% FLA 5-1
Indians Twins M.Talbot vs S.Baker Twins 66.67% 67.45% CLE 8-1
Yankees A's C.Sabathia vs D.Braden Yankees 63.50% 60.48% OAK 4-2
Rangers Red Sox C.Wilson vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 58.68% 48.91% TEX 3-0
Rays White Sox J.Shields vs J.Peavy White Sox 53.05% 53.36% TB 10-2
Tigers Angels J.Verlander vs J.Saunders Tigers 53.05% 55.54% DET 5-4

Current ROI (as of Thursday): 9.36%

baseball betting

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Nines Not Enough



April 21th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Reds H.Kuroda vs A.Harang Dodgers 54.75% 59.10% LAN 14-6
Giants Padres T.Wellemeyer vs J.Garland Padres 55.56% 59.83% SD 5-2
Brewers Pirates Y.Gallardo vs Z.Duke Brewers 56.71% 49.92% MIL 8-0
Rockies Nationals J.Hammel vs J.Lannan Rockies 52.15% 52.11% WAS 6-4
Cubs Mets C.Silva vs O.Perez Mets 51.22% 49.78% CHN 9-3
Phillies Braves R.Halladay vs T.Hudson Phillies 59.18% 61.36% PHI 2-0
Marlins Astros J.Johnson vs B.Norris Marlins 58.85% 57.12% HOU 5-4
Cardinals Diamondbacks C.Carpenter vs E.Jackson Cardinals 59.51% 54.88% STL 9-4
Royals Blue Jays Z.Greinke vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 51.46% 44.88% KC 4-3
Rangers Red Sox M.Harrison vs J.Beckett Red Sox 62.28% 62.18% BOS 8-7
Indians Twins D.Huff vs F.Liriano Twins 63.64% 59.62% MIN 6-0
Rays White Sox W.Davis vs M.Buehrle White Sox 52.61% 57.11% TB 12-0
Yankees A's P.Hughes vs B.Sheets Yankees 57.45% 53.36% NYA 3-1
Tigers Angels J.Bonderman vs J.Weaver Angels 62.41% 62.55% DET 4-3
Orioles Mariners K.Millwood vs F.Hernandez Mariners 65.52% 62.91% SEA 4-1

Current ROI (as of Wednesday): 10.67%

MLB Schedule

Monday, April 19, 2010

Dodgers Likely To Hit Homer



April 20th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey Dodgers 55.95% 54.85% CIN 11-9
Brewers Pirates D.Bush vs C.Morton Brewers 55.36% 51.31% MIL 8-1
Rockies Nationals J.De la Rosa vs S.Olsen Rockies 57.81% 58.70% COL 10-4
Cubs Mets C.Zambrano vs M.Pelfrey Cubs 51.69% 47.65% NYN 4-0
Phillies Braves K.Kendrick vs T.Hanson Braves 62.83% 56.87% ATL 4-3
Marlins Astros C.Volstad vs B.Myers Marlins 51.46% 48.52% HOU 7-5
Cardinals DBacks K.Lohse vs D.Haren DBacks 58.16% 57.89% ARI 9-7
Giants Padres J.Sanchez vs M.Latos Giants 52.61% 57.98% SD 1-0
Royals Blue Jays K.Davies vs D.Eveland Blue Jays 57.26% 59.34% TOR 4-3
Rangers Red Sox C.Lewis vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 57.26% 59.34% BOS 7-6
Indians Twins J.Masterson vs K.Slowey Twins 60.16% 57.35% MIN 5-1
Rays White Sox D.Price vs J.Danks Rays 51.92% 48.28% CHA 4-1
Yankees A's J.Vazquez vs G.Gonzalez Yankees 62.55% 57.00% TBD
Tigers Angels R.Porcello vs S.Kazmir Angels 55.75% 52.50% LAA 6-5
Orioles Mariners D.Hernandez vs J.Vargas Mariners 56.90% 59.71% SEA 3-1

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 12.74%

baseball handicappers

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Nati Eve



April 19th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Rockies Nationals A.Cook vs C.Stammen Rockies 59.18% 49.80% WAS 5-2
Cubs Mets R.Wells vs J.Niese Cubs 54.13% 55.76% NYN 6-1
Cardinals DBacks B.Penny vs R.Lopez Cardinals 56.52% 54.60% STL 4-2
Giants Padres M.Cain vs C.Richard Giants 55.95% 48.54% SD 3-2
Rays Red Sox J.Niemann vs J.Lackey Red Sox 62.96% 56.76% TB 8-2
Royals Blue Jays B.Bannister vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 53.49% 49.66% TOR 8-1
Tigers Angels D.Willis vs J.Pineiro Angels 62.26% 66.08% LAA 2-0
Orioles Mariners B.Bergesen vs D.Fister Mariners 60.16% 57.78% SEA 8-2

Current ROI (as of Monday): 9.03%

MLB Odds

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Kershaw Day



April 18th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 61.39% 61.88% LAN 2-1
Reds Pirates B.Arroyo vs P.Maholm Reds 53.70% 46.33% PIT 5-3
Marlins Phillies N.Robertson vs C.Hamels Phillies 66.67% 66.31% FLA 2-0
Brewers Nationals D.Davis vs J.Marquis Brewers 52.61% 44.22% MIL 11-7
Rockies Braves G.Smith vs J.Jurrjens Braves 59.18% 59.40% ATL 4-3
Astros Cubs W.Rodriguez vs R.Dempster Cubs 63.50% 61.20% HOU 3-2
DBacks Padres I.Kennedy vs W.LeBlanc Padres 52.38% 54.42% SD 5-3
Mets Cardinals J.Maine vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 70.67% 69.94% NYN 5-3
White Sox Indians G.Floyd vs F.Carmona Indians 54.13% 42.99% CLE 7-4
Rangers Yankees R.Harden vs A.Pettitte Yankees 68.25% 68.30% NYA 5-2
Angels Blue Jays E.Santana vs R.Romero Blue Jays 56.14% 61.81% LAA 3-1
Rays Red Sox M.Garza vs J.Lester Red Sox 57.45% 59.09% TB 7-1
Royals Twins L.Hochevar vs C.Pavano Twins 65.28% 64.28% KC 10-5
Orioles A's B.Matusz vs B.Anderson A's 62.12% 60.41% BAL 8-3
Tigers Mariners M.Scherzer vs I.Snell Tigers 54.13% 50.92% DET 4-2

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.50%

MLB Odds

Friday, April 16, 2010

Mission Improbable



April 17th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger Giants 60.78% 61.05% SF 9-0
Brewers Nationals R.Wolf vs L.Hernandez Brewers 60.78% 52.69% WAS 8-0
Astros Cubs R.Oswalt vs T.Gorzelanny Cubs 56.52% 55.65% HOU 4-3
Mets Cardinals J.Santana vs J.Garcia Cardinals 51.22% 51.85% NYN 2-1
Reds Pirates J.Cueto vs D.McCutchen Reds 55.56% 57.25% PIT 5-4
Marlins Phillies R.Nolasco vs J.Moyer Phillies 51.22% 57.33% FLA 5-1
Rockies Braves U.Jimenez vs K.Kawakami Rockies 53.49% 55.12% COL 4-0
DBacks Padres K.Benson vs K.Correia Padres 56.52% 59.17% SD 5-0
Rangers Yankees S.Feldman vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.90% 61.85% NYA 7-3
Angels Blue Jays J.Saunders vs B.Tallet Angels 51.92% 44.46% LAA 6-3
Royals Twins G.Meche vs N.Blackburn Twins 63.10% 58.15% MIN 6-5
Orioles A's J.Guthrie vs J.Duchscherer A's 61.54% 53.93% OAK 4-3
White Sox Indians J.Peavy vs J.Westbrook White Sox 55.95% 53.22% CLE 3-2
Rays Red Sox J.Shields vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 55.16% 51.71% TB 6-5
Tigers Mariners J.Verlander vs R.Smith Tigers 56.71% 55.18% SEA 4-2

Current ROI (as of Saturday): 15.59%

MLB Odds

Haters Coming To Town



April 16th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers T.Wellemeyer vs V.Padilla Dodgers 58.68% 59.33% LAN 10-8
Astros Cubs F.Paulino vs T.Gorzelanny Cubs 63.10% 62.52% CHN 7-2
Reds Pirates M.Leake vs Z.Duke Pirates 51.46% 55.45% PIT 4-3
Marlins Phillies A.Sanchez vs R.Halladay Phillies 71.43% 72.36% PHI 8-6
Brewers Nationals Y.Gallardo vs J.Lannan Brewers 59.68% 48.65% WAS 5-3
Rockies Braves J.Hammel vs D.Lowe Braves 56.90% 47.02% ATL 9-5
Mets Cardinals O.Perez vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 71.43% 62.91% STL 4-3
DBacks Padres E.Jackson vs J.Garland DBacks 51.92% 48.98% SD 6-3
White Sox Indians M.Buehrle vs M.Talbot White Sox 56.71% 57.35% CLE 6-2
Rangers Yankees C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia Yankees 67.74% 67.48% TBD
Angels Blue Jays J.Weaver vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 50.98% 48.75% LAA 7-5
Rays Red Sox W.Davis vs J.Beckett Red Sox 64.91% 60.26% TBD
Royals Twins Z.Greinke vs S.Baker Twins 55.56% 52.09% MIN 10-3
Orioles A's K.Millwood vs D.Braden A's 58.68% 61.17% OAK 4-2
Tigers Mariners J.Bonderman vs F.Hernandez Mariners 64.41% 64.89% SEA 11-3

Current ROI (as of Friday): 15.46%

MLB Odds

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Taxation Without Ortizitation



April 15th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers D.Haren vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 52.38% 53.77% LAN 6-5
Astros Cardinals B.Norris vs K.Lohse Cardinals 69.70% 61.86% HOU 5-1
Brewers Cubs J.Suppan vs C.Zambrano Cubs 63.37% 63.38% MIL 8-6
Nationals Phillies S.Olsen vs J.Happ Phillies 69.70% 64.80% WAS 7-5
Mets Rockies M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 66.78% 65.79% NYN 5-0
Braves Padres T.Hudson vs M.Latos Braves 55.36% 53.20% ATL 6-2
Reds Marlins A.Harang vs J.Johnson Marlins 59.51% 59.57% FLA 10-2
Rangers Indians M.Harrison vs D.Huff Rangers 53.27% 45.90% CLE 3-2
Red Sox Twins T.Wakefield vs F.Liriano Twins 55.16% 55.48% MIN 8-0
Angels Yankees S.Kazmir vs P.Hughes Yankees 62.96% 57.45% NYA 6-2
White Sox Blue Jays F.Garcia vs D.Eveland Blue Jays 53.49% 52.05% TOR 7-3
Orioles A's D.Hernandez vs B.Sheets A's 60.00% 56.44% OAK 6-2

Current ROI (as of Tuesday): 10.90%

MLB Odds

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Outfield Of Dingers



April 14th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers R.Lopez vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 65.03% 63.91% ARI 9-7
Brewers Cubs D.Bush vs R.Wells Cubs 57.81% 57.85% CHN 7-6
Pirates Giants C.Morton vs J.Sanchez Giants 63.24% 60.83% SF 6-0
Nationals Phillies C.Stammen vs K.Kendrick Phillies 68.15% 57.85% PHI 14-7
Reds Marlins H.Bailey vs C.Volstad Marlins 55.16% 48.96% FLA 5-3
Astros Cardinals B.Myers vs B.Penny Cardinals 68.75% 64.43% STL 2-1
Mets Rockies J.Niese vs A.Cook Rockies 64.54% 59.55% COL 6-5
Braves Padres T.Hanson vs C.Richard Braves 58.51% 48.69% ATL 6-1
Royals Tigers K.Davies vs R.Porcello Tigers 62.26% 58.51% KC 7-3
Angels Yankees J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez Yankees 66.89% 59.01% LAA 5-3
Red Sox Twins J.Lackey vs K.Slowey Red Sox 55.36% 52.76% BOS 6-3
Rays Orioles D.Price vs B.Bergesen Rays 57.81% 52.80% TB 9-1
Rangers Indians C.Wilson vs J.Masterson Rangers 51.46% 49.02% TEX 6-2
White Sox Blue Jays J.Danks vs B.Morrow White Sox 53.92% 53.24% CHA 11-1
A's Mariners G.Gonzalez vs J.Vargas A's 51.22% 46.72% SEA 4-2

If you were betting today's games, here is the list of teams to bet on ranked in order of confidence level (biggest to smallest bet). Higher number = Highest bets
15 - SD
14 - WAS
13 - LAA
12 - CIN
11 - BAL
10 - SEA
9 - NYN
8 - HOU
7 - KC
6 - MIN
5 - CLE
4 - PIT
3 - CHN
2 - ARI
1 - TOR

Current ROI (as of Monday): 17.59%

MLB Odds

Monday, April 12, 2010

Kershaw The Golden Flower



April 13th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers I.Kennedy vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 62.55% 63.90% LAN 9-5
Reds Marlins B.Arroyo vs N.Robertson Marlins 54.34% 51.78% CIN 10-8
Mets Rockies J.Maine vs G.Smith Rockies 58.33% 60.05% COL 11-3
Pirates Giants P.Maholm vs M.Cain Giants 60.32% 60.25% SF 6-5
Royals Tigers B.Bannister vs D.Willis Tigers 57.26% 56.64% DET 6-5
Angels Yankees E.Santana vs A.Pettitte Yankees 63.64% 65.62% NYA 7-5
Rays Orioles J.Niemann vs B.Matusz Rays 53.49% 52.85% TB 8-6
White Sox Blue Jays G.Floyd vs R.Romero Blue Jays 52.15% 51.95% TOR 4-2
A's Mariners B.Anderson vs D.Fister A's 55.36% 53.71% SEA 3-0

Current ROI (as of Monday): 14.03%

MLB Odds

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Shades Of Mediocrity



April 12th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Brewers Cubs D.Davis vs R.Dempster Cubs 59.51% 63.57% CHN 9-5
Nationals Phillies J.Marquis vs C.Hamels Phillies 71.83% 66.91% PHI 7-4
Astros Cardinals W.Rodriguez vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 67.32% 61.13% STL 5-0
Braves Padres J.Jurrjens vs K.Correia Braves 59.68% 51.71% SD 17-2
Reds Marlins J.Cueto vs R.Nolasco Marlins 59.51% 59.45% CIN 6-5
Pirates Giants R.Ohlendorf vs B.Zito Giants 62.41% 63.69% SF 9-3
Royals Tigers L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer Tigers 65.16% 61.45% KC 10-5
Rangers Indians R.Harden vs F.Carmona Rangers 52.61% 51.43% TEX 4-2
Red Sox Twins J.Lester vs C.Pavano Red Sox 58.85% 48.68% MIN 5-2
A's Mariners J.Duchscherer vs R.Smith Mariners 53.27% 59.30% OAK 4-0
Rays Orioles M.Garza vs J.Guthrie Rays 59.35% 55.28% TB 5-1
White Sox Blue Jays J.Peavy vs B.Tallet White Sox 55.36% 51.38% CHA 8-7

Current ROI (as of Sunday): 12.68%

MLB Odds

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Torre! Torre! Tora!


The bombing of the Dodgers bullpen...

April 11th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Marlins C.Haeger vs A.Sanchez Marlins 55.16% 51.86% FLA 7-6
Padres Rockies J.Garland vs U.Jimenez Rockies 70.59% 66.07% COL 4-2
Braves Giants K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum Giants 65.87% 64.18% SF 6-3
Nationals Mets L.Hernandez vs J.Santana Mets 70.15% 56.14% WAS 5-2
Cubs Reds T.Gorzelanny vs M.Leake Reds 53.92% 49.63% CIN 3-1
Phillies Astros R.Halladay vs R.Oswalt Phillies 64.66% 58.44% PHI 2-1
Cardinals Brewers C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf Cardinals 59.84% 50.43% MIL 8-7
Pirates DBacks Z.Duke vs E.Jackson DBacks 67.85% 58.81% ARI 15-6
Indians Tigers J.Westbrook vs J.Verlander Tigers 65.28% 70.48% DET 9-8
Blue Jays Orioles S.Marcum vs K.Millwood Orioles 53.70% 57.15% TOR 5-2
Yankees Rays A.Burnett vs J.Shields Rays 52.61% 54.43% NYA 7-3
Mariners Rangers I.Snell vs S.Feldman Rangers 59.51% 58.22% TEX 9-2
Red Sox Royals C.Buchholz vs G.Meche Red Sox 58.33% 52.88% BOS 8-6
Twins White Sox N.Blackburn vs M.Buehrle White Sox 54.75% 54.22% CHA 5-4
A's Angels D.Braden vs J.Saunders Angels 56.14% 53.25% OAK 9-4

Current ROI: 11.41%

MLB Odds

Third Wins A Charm


April 10th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Marlins V.Padilla vs J.Johnson Marlins 58.85% 56.56% FLA 7-6
Padres Rockies M.Latos vs J.Hammel Rockies 60.00% 66.08% SD 5-4
Braves Giants K.Kawakami vs T.Wellemeyer Braves 54.95% 50.22% ATL 7-2
Nationals Mets J.Lannan vs O.Perez Mets 54.95% 48.40% WAS 4-3
Cubs Reds C.Zambrano vs A.Harang Reds 53.92% 48.19% CHN 4-3
Phillies Astros J.Moyer vs F.Paulino Phillies 56.90% 58.30% PHI 9-6
Cardinals Brewers J.Garcia vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 56.52% 57.52% STL 7-1
Pirates DBacks D.McCutchen vs D.Haren DBacks 72.14% 69.03% PIT 6-3
Indians Tigers M.Talbot vs J.Bonderman Tigers 60.47% 57.40% DET 4-2
Blue Jays Orioles D.Eveland vs D.Hernandez Orioles 57.98% 49.13% TOR 3-0
Yankees Rays C.Sabathia vs W.Davis Yankees 57.67% 54.67% NYA 10-0
Mariners Rangers F.Hernandez vs M.Harrison Mariners 59.02% 56.64% SEA 4-3
Red Sox Royals J.Beckett vs Z.Greinke Red Sox 53.92% 45.05% BOS 8-3
Twins White Sox S.Baker vs F.Garcia Twins 55.16% 52.06% MIN 2-1
A's Angels B.Sheets vs J.Weaver Angels 59.02% 60.88% LAA 4-3

Current ROI: 15.90%

MLB Odds

Friday, April 09, 2010

Big In Florida


April 9th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Marlins H.Kuroda vs C.Volstad Dodgers 54.13% 56.06% LAN 7-3
Padres Rockies C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 63.24% 63.69% COL 7-0
Braves Giants T.Hudson vs J.Sanchez Braves 54.75% 42.62% SF 5-4
Nationals Mets G.Mock vs M.Pelfrey Mets 57.26% 55.23% NYN 8-2
Cubs Reds C.Silva vs H.Bailey Reds 55.95% 56.15% CIN 5-4
Phillies Astros J.Happ vs B.Norris Phillies 59.84% 57.65% PHI 8-0
Cardinals Brewers K.Lohse vs D.Bush Cardinals 51.22% 46.06% STL 5-4
Pirates DBacks C.Morton vs R.Lopez DBacks 57.26% 55.55% ARI 9-1
Indians Tigers D.Huff vs R.Porcello Tigers 58.33% 52.24% DET 5-2
Blue Jays Orioles B.Morrow vs B.Bergesen Orioles 57.08% 59.66% TOR 7-6
Yankees Rays J.Vazquez vs D.Price Yankees 52.38% 53.89% TB 9-3
Mariners Rangers J.Vargas vs C.Lewis Rangers 59.84% 52.30% TEX 6-2
Red Sox Royals T.Wakefield vs K.Davies Red Sox 59.51% 53.62% KC 4-3
Twins White Sox F.Liriano vs J.Danks White Sox 52.15% 54.23% MIN 4-3
A's Angels G.Gonzalez vs M.Palmer Angels 56.71% 55.36% OAK 10-4

Current ROI: 24.65%

MLB Odds

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Leaving Loss Pittsburgh


April 8th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates C.Billingsley vs P.Maholm Dodgers 59.18% 52.14% LAN 10-2
Phillies Nationals K.Kendrick vs C.Stammen Phillies 58.68% 51.06% WAS 6-5
Marlins Mets N.Robertson vs J.Niese Mets 54.13% 54.07% FLA 3-1
Cardinals Reds B.Penny vs B.Arroyo Cardinals 51.92% 46.25% CIN 2-1
Cubs Braves R.Wells vs T.Hanson Braves 65.52% 55.84% CHN 2-0
Orioles Rays B.Matusz vs J.Niemann Rays 63.50% 63.22% BAL 5-4
Twins Angels K.Slowey vs J.Pineiro Angels 54.95% 61.56% MIN 10-1
Mariners A's D.Fister vs B.Anderson A's 62.26% 61.26% OAK 6-2
Blue Jays Rangers R.Romero vs C.Wilson Rangers 61.39% 53.40% TOR 3-1
Tigers Royals D.Willis vs B.Bannister Royals 53.49% 54.63% DET 7-3
Indians White Sox J.Masterson vs G.Floyd White Sox 57.45% 58.65% CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 11.52%

MLB Odds

Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Kershaw For The Win?


April 7th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates C.Kershaw vs R.Ohlendorf Dodgers 61.09% 60.72% PIT 4-3
Giants Astros M.Cain vs B.Myers Giants 59.68% 54.82% SF 10-4
Rockies Brewers A.Cook vs D.Davis Brewers 52.15% 53.28% MIL 5-4
Phillies Nationals C.Hamels vs J.Marquis Phillies 61.54% 54.78% PHI 8-4
Marlins Mets R.Nolasco vs J.Maine Marlins 53.92% 53.48% FLA 7-6
Cardinals Reds A.Wainwright vs J.Cueto Cardinals 57.26% 56.84% STL 6-3
Cubs Braves R.Dempster vs J.Jurrjens Braves 59.68% 54.04% ATL 3-2
Padres DBacks K.Correia vs I.Kennedy DBacks 58.16% 47.48% ARI 5-3
Yankees Red Sox A.Pettitte vs J.Lackey Red Sox 59.02% 55.72% NYA 3-1
Orioles Rays J.Guthrie vs M.Garza Rays 67.95% 63.46% TB 4-3
Twins Angels C.Pavano vs E.Santana Angels 59.68% 49.22% MIN 4-2
Mariners A's R.Smith vs J.Duchscherer A's 55.16% 48.90% OAK 6-5
Blue Jays Rangers B.Tallet vs R.Harden Rangers 64.91% 56.56% TOR 7-4
Tigers Royals M.Scherzer vs L.Hochevar Tigers 56.14% 51.28% KC 3-2
Indians White Sox F.Carmona vs J.Peavy White Sox 61.83% 59.94% CLE 5-3

Current ROI: 42.3%

MLB Odds

The Seven Simulations


April 6th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Giants Astros B.Zito vs W.Rodriguez Astros 56.33% 54.80% SF 3-0
Rockies Brewers G.Smith vs R.Wolf Brewers 58.16% 61.48% MIL 7-5
Padres DBacks C.Young vs E.Jackson DBacks 60.32% 60.41% SD 6-3
Yankees Red Sox A.Burnett vs J.Lester Red Sox 58.33% 59.50% NYA 6-4
Orioles Rays K.Millwood vs J.Shields Rays 63.64% 60.83% TB 4-3
Twins Angels N.Blackburn vs J.Saunders Angels 55.36% 51.03% MIN 5-3
Mariners A's I.Snell vs D.Braden A's 55.95% 56.71% OAK 2-1

MLB Odds

Monday, April 05, 2010

First Of Manny Wins


April 5th, Dodgers vs Pirates



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates V.Padilla vs Z.Duke Dodgers 57.08% 51.08% PIT 11-5

MLB Odds