May 1st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHN	CIN	Jeff Samardzija vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	59.92%	63.87%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Chris Sale	CHA	55.46%	55.25%	TBD
MIL	SD	Shaun Marcum vs Edinson Volquez	MIL	52.27%	48.38%	TBD
MIN	LAA	Francisco Liriano vs Jerome Williams	LAA	59.92%	62.81%	TBD
OAK	BOS	Jarrod Parker vs Felix Doubront	BOS	61.83%	58.74%	TBD
PHI	ATL	Cole Hamels vs Brandon Beachy	ATL	54.65%	56.52%	TBD
SEA	TB	Hector Noesi vs Matt Moore	TB	65.34%	66.50%	TBD
ARI	WAS	Trevor Cahill vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	56.62%	56.14%	TBD
BAL	NYA	Brian Matusz vs Phil Hughes	NYA	63.70%	59.47%	TBD
KC	DET	Luke Hochevar vs Rick Porcello	DET	NA	64.42%	TBD
TEX	TOR	Neftali Feliz vs Drew Hutchison	TEX	57.72%	57.10%	TBD
NYN	HOU	John Niese vs J.A. Happ	NYN	55.26%	58.07%	TBD
PIT	STL	Charlie Morton vs Adam Wainwright	STL	63.70%	57.66%	TBD
LAN	COL	Ted Lilly vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	52.72%	63.14%	TBD
FLA	SF	Ricky Nolasco vs Matt Cain	SF	59.92%	54.34%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 30th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
MIL	SD	Randy Wolf vs Joe Wieland	SD	51.81%	51.28%	TBD
MIN	LAA	Nick Blackburn vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	69.23%	70.55%	TBD
OAK	BOS	Tom Milone vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	60.86%	56.07%	TBD
PIT	ATL	James McDonald vs Mike Minor	ATL	62.62%	64.68%	TBD
SEA	TB	Felx Hernandez vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	54.02%	56.87%	TBD
ARI	FLA	Pat Corbin vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	61.01%	61.88%	TBD
BAL	NYA	Jason Hammel vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	61.90%	64.67%	TBD
CHN	PHI	Chris Volstad vs Vance Worley	PHI	61.32%	64.59%	TBD
KC	DET	Luke Hochevar vs Duane Below	DET	58.59%	63.18%	TBD
TEX	TOR	Yu Darvish vs Kyle Drabek	TEX	58.76%	57.25%	TBD
NYN	HOU	R.A. Dickey vs Bud Norris	NYN	51.81%	53.63%	TBD
LAN	COL	Aaron Harang vs Juan Nicasio	COL	57.17%	64.04%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 29th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Ervin Santana vs Derek Lowe	CLE	51.10%	51.93%	TBD
BOS	CHA	Josh Beckett vs Gavin Floyd	BOS	53.81%	51.38%	TBD
CHN	PHI	Matt Garza vs Kyle Kendrick	CHN	50.74%	47.63%	TBD
DET	NYA	Max Scherzer vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	63.30%	65.02%	TBD
HOU	CIN	Jordan Lyles vs Mat Latos	CIN	64.97%	73.14%	TBD
PIT	ATL	Kevin Correia vs Tim Hudson	ATL	62.19%	63.35%	TBD
TB	TEX	David Price vs Derek Holland	TEX	54.65%	57.85%	TBD
WAS	LAN	Gio Gonzalez vs Chris Capuano	WAS	51.10%	49.02%	TBD
SEA	TOR	Jason Vargas vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	57.89%	59.25%	TBD
ARI	FLA	Wade Miley vs Josh Johnson	FLA	62.76%	67.21%	TBD
OAK	BAL	Bartolo Colon vs Tommy Hunter	BAL	51.34%	56.03%	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Jason Marquis	KC	52.49%	45.11%	TBD
MIL	STL	Zach Greinke vs Jaime Garcia	STL	53.16%	50.12%	TBD
NYN	COL	Johan Santana vs Jamie Moyer	COL	52.27%	43.12%	TBD
SD	SF	Clayton Richard vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	61.83%	62.93%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 28th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Dan Haren vs Jeanmar Gomez	LAA	56.80%	57.19%	TBD
BOS	CHA	Jon Lester vs Jake Peavy	CHA	50.74%	51.69%	TBD
HOU	CIN	Lucas Harrell vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	65.93%	70.55%	TBD
PIT	ATL	Erik Bedard vs Randall Delgado	ATL	57.89%	51.11%	TBD
TB	TEX	Jeff Niemann vs Colby Lewis	TEX	60.24%	58.43%	TBD
WAS	LAN	Stephen Strasburg vs Chad Billingsley	WAS	52.94%	51.50%	TBD
DET	NYA	Drew Smyly vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	53.60%	55.81%	TBD
MIL	STL	Marco Estrada vs Kyle Lohse	STL	58.42%	57.98%	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Jason Marquis	KC	52.72%	47.17%	TBD
SEA	TOR	Kevin Millwood vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	63.70%	63.37%	TBD
CHN	PHI	Randy Wells vs Joe Blanton	PHI	58.07%	58.86%	TBD
OAK	BAL	Tyson Ross vs Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	58.93%	63.72%	TBD
ARI	FLA	Ian Kennedy vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	54.65%	57.91%	TBD
NYN	COL	Dillon Gee vs Guillermo Moscoso	COL	NA	62.69%	TBD
SD	SF	Anthony Bass vs Tim Lincecum	SF	62.48%	63.24%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 27th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	CLE	Jered Weaver vs Justin Masterson	LAA	57.36%	49.07%	TBD
BOS	CHA	Daniel Bard vs John Danks	BOS	51.34%	47.28%	TBD
HOU	CIN	Wandy Rodriguez vs Mike Leake	CIN	58.42%	64.76%	TBD
PIT	ATL	A.J. Burnett vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	64.22%	64.21%	TBD
TB	TEX	James Shields vs Matt Harrison	TEX	56.80%	61.47%	TBD
WAS	LAN	Ross Detwiler vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	66.10%	65.91%	TBD
CHN	PHI	Paul Maholm vs Roy Halladay	PHI	71.51%	73.21%	TBD
DET	NYA	Justin Verlander vs Ivan Nova	DET	55.06%	47.18%	TBD
OAK	BAL	Brandon McCarthy vs Jake Arrieta	BAL	55.26%	51.23%	TBD
SEA	TOR	Blake Beavan vs Ricky Romero	TOR	66.67%	60.41%	TBD
ARI	FLA	Joe Saunders vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	56.43%	61.93%	TBD
KC	MIN	Everett Teaford vs Carl Pavano	MIN	55.06%	56.26%	TBD
MIL	STL	Yovanni Gallardo vs Jake Westbrook	STL	55.26%	51.15%	TBD
NYN	COL	Chris Schwinden vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	61.17%	67.22%	TBD
SD	SF	Cory Luebke vs Eric Hacker	SD	OFF	55.46%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 26th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TB	Jerome Williams vs Matt Moore	TB	60.86%	58.21%	TBD
BOS	CHA	Felix Doubront vs Phil Humber	CHA	52.94%	53.72%	TBD
KC	CLE	Luis Mendoza vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	58.76%	61.12%	TBD
SF	CIN	Ryan Vogelsong vs Homer Bailey	CIN	54.85%	53.52%	TBD
WAS	SD	Edwin Jackson vs Edinson Volquez	SD	50.25%	55.32%	TBD
SEA	DET	Hector Noesi vs Rick Porcello	DET	65.10%	67.47%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Ricky Nolasco vs John Niese	NYN	53.38%	46.94%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Drew Hutchison vs Brian Matusz	TOR	52.27%	43.40%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 25th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TB	C.J. Wilson vs Jeremy Hellickson	LAA	50.62%	53.97%	TBD
ATL	LAN	Brandon Beachy vs Ted Lilly	LAN	50.86%	44.93%	TBD
KC	CLE	Luke Hochevar vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	62.34%	62.33%	TBD
NYA	TEX	Phil Hughes vs Scott Feldman	TEX	54.85%	55.04%	TBD
SF	CIN	Barry Zito vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	55.46%	58.82%	TBD
WAS	SD	Jordan Zimmerman vs Joe Wieland	WAS	56.43%	49.46%	TBD
COL	PIT	Juan Nicasio vs James McDonald	COL	51.34%	55.70%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jhoulys Chacin vs Charlie Morton	COL	53.60%	51.97%	TBD
HOU	MIL	J.A. Happ vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	64.97%	68.93%	TBD
STL	CHN	Lance Lynn vs Chris Volstad	STL	59.60%	58.94%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Chris Sale vs Jarrod Parker	CHA	55.26%	47.53%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Cole Hamels vs Trevor Cahill	PHI	50.74%	51.45%	TBD
SEA	DET	Felx Hernandez vs Adam Wilk	SEA	50.86%	43.02%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Kyle Drabek vs Jason Hammel	BAL	50.62%	52.38%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Mark Buehrle vs R.A. Dickey	FLA	51.57%	55.24%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Clay Buchholz vs Liam Hendriks	BOS	53.60%	51.54%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 24th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	TB	Ervin Santana vs David Price	TB	59.27%	54.35%	TBD
ATL	LAN	Mike Minor vs Aaron Harang	ATL	52.49%	53.45%	TBD
KC	CLE	Jonathan Sanchez vs Derek Lowe	CLE	55.46%	61.20%	TBD
NYA	TEX	Hiroki Kuroda vs Yu Darvish	TEX	57.36%	57.58%	TBD
SF	CIN	Matt Cain vs Mat Latos	CIN	50.25%	54.26%	TBD
WAS	SD	Gio Gonzalez vs Clayton Richard	WAS	52.72%	52.13%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia	PIT	51.10%	44.61%	TBD
SEA	DET	Jason Vargas vs Max Scherzer	DET	63.83%	65.51%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Henderson Alvarez vs Tommy Hunter	TOR	52.49%	47.16%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Josh Johnson vs Johan Santana	FLA	51.81%	59.29%	TBD
STL	CHN	Adam Wainwright vs Jeff Samardzija	STL	57.17%	60.50%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Josh Beckett vs Nick Blackburn	BOS	60.08%	55.67%	TBD
HOU	MIL	Bud Norris vs Randy Wolf	MIL	56.62%	63.09%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Vance Worley vs Josh Collmenter	PHI	52.27%	54.39%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Gavin Floyd vs Tom Milone	OAK	50.74%	53.72%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 23rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ATL	LAN	Jair Jurrjens vs Chris Capuano	LAN	TBD	52.78%	TBD
NYA	TEX	C.C. Sabathia vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	50.53%	TBD
TOR	KC	Brandon Morrow vs Bruce Chen	TOR	TBD	50.43%	TBD
COL	PIT	Jamie Moyer vs Kevin Correia	COL	TBD	55.32%	TBD
SF	NYN	Tim Lincecum vs Miguel Batista	SF	TBD	53.70%	TBD
SF	NYN	Madison Bumgarner vs Dillon Gee	SF	TBD	61.61%	TBD
STL	CHN	Jaime Garcia vs Matt Garza	STL	TBD	52.06%	TBD
BOS	MIN	Jon Lester vs Jason Marquis	BOS	TBD	55.56%	TBD
HOU	MIL	Lucas Harrell vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	71.08%	TBD
PHI	ARI	Kyle Kendrick vs Wade Miley	PHI	TBD	52.95%	TBD
CHA	OAK	Jake Peavy vs Bartolo Colon	OAK	TBD	51.21%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 22nd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Wei-Yin Chen vs Dan Haren	LAA	60.94%	64.11%	TBD
MIN	TB	Francisco Liriano vs Jeff Niemann	TB	61.54%	61.91%	TBD
NYA	BOS	C.C. Sabathia vs Daniel Bard	NYA	55.95%	56.76%	TBD
PHI	SD	Joe Blanton vs Anthony Bass	SD	51.46%	52.08%	TBD
TOR	KC	Ricky Romero vs Danny Duffy	TOR	51.46%	50.25%	TBD
TEX	DET	Colby Lewis vs Drew Smyly	TEX	55.75%	47.47%	TBD
SF	NYN	Tim Lincecum vs Dillon Gee	SF	54.13%	52.98%	Ppd
FLA	WAS	Josh Johnson vs Gio Gonzalez	FLA	NA	56.02%	Ppd
STL	PIT	Kyle Lohse vs Erik Bedard	STL	54.13%	49.65%	TBD
LAN	HOU	Chad Billingsley vs Wandy Rodriguez	LAN	55.16%	54.65%	TBD
COL	MIL	Jeremy Guthrie vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	59.02%	54.30%	TBD
CIN	CHN	Johnny Cueto vs Randy Wells	CIN	58.68%	61.95%	TBD
CLE	OAK	Justin Masterson vs Tyson Ross	OAK	51.69%	46.11%	TBD
ATL	ARI	Randall Delgado vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	58.68%	60.74%	TBD
CHA	SEA	John Danks vs Kevin Millwood	CHA	51.46%	50.71%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 21st Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Jake Arrieta vs Jered Weaver	LAA	64.91%	64.67%	TBD
MIN	TB	Carl Pavano vs James Shields	TB	64.91%	62.35%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Freddy Garcia vs Felix Doubront	BOS	53.70%	51.70%	TBD
PHI	SD	Roy Halladay vs Cory Luebke	PHI	58.16%	57.47%	TBD
TOR	KC	Drew Hutchison vs Luis Mendoza	TOR	51.22%	48.65%	TBD
CIN	CHN	Mike Leake vs Paul Maholm	CIN	54.75%	51.34%	TBD
FLA	WAS	Anibal Sanchez vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	60.00%	51.30%	TBD
TEX	DET	Matt Harrison vs Rick Porcello	TEX	50.00%	54.53%	TBD
TEX	DET	Neftali Feliz vs Justin Verlander	DET	59.51%	52.55%	TBD
SF	NYN	Ryan Vogelsong vs Mike Pelfrey	NYN	51.22%	48.25%	TBD
CHA	SEA	Phil Humber vs Blake Beavan	CHA	51.22%	53.71%	TBD
LAN	HOU	Clayton Kershaw vs Kyle Weiland	LAN	66.27%	65.85%	TBD
STL	PIT	Jake Westbrook vs Kevin Correia	STL	55.75%	53.30%	TBD
COL	MIL	Drew Pomeranz vs Marco Estrada	MIL	55.75%	52.21%	TBD
ATL	ARI	Tommy Hanson vs Joe Saunders	ATL	52.61%	54.50%	TBD
CLE	OAK	Jeanmar Gomez vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	56.33%	57.98%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 20th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Brian Matusz vs Jerome Williams	LAA	59.27%	60.14%	TBD
MIN	TB	Liam Hendriks vs Matt Moore	TB	63.44%	67.26%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Ivan Nova vs Clay Buchholz	NYA	50.25%	51.51%	TBD
PHI	SD	Cole Hamels vs Edinson Volquez	PHI	55.85%	52.08%	TBD
TOR	KC	Kyle Drabek vs Luke Hochevar	KC	50.25%	54.49%	TBD
CIN	CHN	Homer Bailey vs Chris Volstad	CIN	53.60%	54.73%	TBD
FLA	WAS	Carlos Zambrano vs Ross Detwiler	WAS	52.94%	46.16%	TBD
STL	PIT	Lance Lynn vs Charlie Morton	STL	55.65%	47.12%	TBD
TEX	DET	Matt Harrison vs Rick Porcello	TEX	50.74%	54.50%	TBD
SF	NYN	Barry Zito vs John Niese	NYN	56.04%	56.82%	TBD
LAN	HOU	Ted Lilly vs J.A. Happ	LAN	55.46%	57.21%	TBD
COL	MIL	Jhoulys Chacin vs Shaun Marcum	COL	56.04%	48.94%	TBD
ATL	ARI	Brandon Beachy vs Trevor Cahill	ATL	52.72%	57.47%	TBD
CLE	OAK	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Graham Godfrey	CLE	52.94%	51.21%	TBD
CHA	SEA	Chris Sale vs Hector Noesi	CHA	53.81%	48.06%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 19th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Jason Hammel vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	56.43%	53.85%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Tom Milone vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	65.64%	69.68%	TBD
PHI	SD	Vance Worley vs Joe Wieland	PHI	53.81%	54.13%	TBD
CHN	FLA	Jeff Samardzija vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	59.10%	65.47%	TBD
LAN	MIL	Aaron Harang vs Randy Wolf	MIL	55.65%	57.03%	TBD
CIN	STL	Bronson Arroyo vs Adam Wainwright	STL	60.08%	55.52%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Bud Norris vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	60.08%	62.10%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Anthony Swarzak vs Phil Hughes	NYA	67.21%	64.01%	TBD
TEX	DET	Yu Darvish vs Adam Wilk	TEX	52.27%	56.90%	TBD
TB	TOR	Jeremy Hellickson vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	52.27%	55.03%	TBD
ATL	ARI	Mike Minor vs Josh Collmenter	ATL	52.27%	53.00%	TBD
CLE	SEA	Josh Tomlin vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	58.93%	56.10%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 18th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Tommy Hunter vs Jake Peavy	CHA	59.10%	56.77%	TBD
DET	KC	Max Scherzer vs Jonathan Sanchez	DET	55.06%	55.05%	TBD
NYN	ATL	R.A. Dickey vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	55.65%	56.37%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Bartolo Colon vs Ervin Santana	LAA	61.01%	62.69%	TBD
TEX	BOS	Derek Holland vs Josh Beckett	BOS	53.38%	47.54%	TBD
PIT	ARI	James McDonald vs Daniel Hudson	ARI	62.19%	59.56%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Lucas Harrell vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	65.64%	65.80%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Jason Marquis vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	68.75%	66.38%	TBD
TB	TOR	David Price vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	52.27%	50.35%	TBD
CHN	FLA	Matt Garza vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	55.26%	55.46%	TBD
LAN	MIL	Chris Capuano vs Zach Greinke	MIL	61.54%	67.35%	TBD
CIN	STL	Mat Latos vs Jaime Garcia	STL	55.06%	51.27%	TBD
SD	COL	Clayton Richard vs Juan Nicasio	COL	59.10%	64.66%	TBD
CLE	SEA	Derek Lowe vs Jason Vargas	CLE	50.74%	49.46%	TBD
PHI	SF	Cliff Lee vs Matt Cain	SF	50.86%	50.29%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Dodgers vs Brewers - April 17th Simulation Box Score

Team	RS	RA	Sim Win %	Vegas Win %
Dodgers	3.191	3.665	41.636%	45.767%
Brewers	3.665	3.191	58.364%	54.233%

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Dee Gordon	4.406	1.072	0.780	0.215	0.035	0.042	0.184	0.164	1.084	0.268
Mark Ellis	4.253	1.049	0.719	0.225	0.013	0.093	0.346	0.181	1.033	0.283
Matt Kemp	4.073	1.015	0.554	0.169	0.024	0.269	0.575	0.316	1.662	0.341
Andre Ethier	3.923	1.025	0.614	0.247	0.006	0.159	0.466	0.397	1.103	0.339
Juan Rivera	3.939	0.948	0.620	0.186	0.008	0.134	0.406	0.250	1.046	0.296
James Loney	3.799	1.051	0.647	0.264	0.014	0.127	0.412	0.302	0.719	0.340
Juan Uribe	3.790	0.853	0.539	0.204	0.008	0.102	0.369	0.176	1.114	0.272
A.J. Ellis	3.636	0.841	0.581	0.178	0.008	0.074	0.301	0.221	1.062	0.274
Pitchers Spot	3.642	0.331	0.259	0.054	0.002	0.015	0.098	0.114	2.270	0.111
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Ricky Weeks	4.078	1.104	0.690	0.267	0.028	0.120	0.371	0.463	0.979	0.344
Nyjer Morgan	4.065	1.201	0.820	0.256	0.079	0.047	0.359	0.368	0.667	0.346
Ryan Braun	3.937	1.230	0.768	0.261	0.034	0.167	0.632	0.415	0.727	0.389
Aramis Ramirez	3.894	1.118	0.734	0.233	0.010	0.141	0.579	0.354	0.585	0.352
Mat Gamel	3.785	0.999	0.676	0.223	0.016	0.084	0.424	0.365	0.760	0.322
Alex Gonzalez	3.836	0.917	0.603	0.218	0.012	0.083	0.402	0.196	0.876	0.282
Jonathan Lucroy	3.610	0.923	0.690	0.168	0.007	0.058	0.326	0.316	0.819	0.301
Carlos Gomez	3.552	0.877	0.573	0.208	0.038	0.057	0.333	0.253	0.775	0.296
Pitchers Spot	3.537	0.473	0.380	0.079	0.004	0.010	0.172	0.178	1.539	0.160

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Chad Billingsley	6.064	5.052	2.082	6.303	0.563	97.138	3.771
Javy Guerra	0.432	0.435	0.110	0.383	0.027	6.631	2.763
Kenley Jansen	0.408	0.644	0.123	0.275	0.024	6.467	1.704
Matt Guerrier	0.610	0.482	0.156	0.635	0.057	9.455	3.598
Scott Elbert	0.264	0.236	0.109	0.260	0.023	4.302	3.803
Mike MacDougal	0.206	0.164	0.078	0.209	0.016	3.308	3.721
Josh Lindblom	0.521	0.510	0.157	0.484	0.029	8.168	2.873
Jamey Wright	0.268	0.205	0.094	0.291	0.027	4.313	4.036
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Yovanni Gallardo	6.542	7.951	1.364	5.779	0.787	101.045	2.958
John Axford	0.476	0.626	0.112	0.351	0.024	7.264	1.925
Francisco Rodriguez	0.414	0.504	0.110	0.337	0.026	6.429	2.387
Jose Veras	0.584	0.694	0.211	0.493	0.050	9.376	3.015
Kameron Loe	0.248	0.244	0.049	0.225	0.016	3.741	2.678
Manny Parra	0.127	0.128	0.051	0.121	0.017	2.070	4.127
Tim Dillard	0.585	0.560	0.131	0.559	0.057	8.972	3.232
Marco Estrada	0.346	0.385	0.093	0.319	0.038	5.443	3.219

Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores

1 MIL 3-2		51 MIL 8-2		101 MIL 9-6
2 MIL 2-1		52 MIL 7-5		102 MIL 9-7
3 MIL 4-3		53 MIL 8-1		103 LAN 10-5
4 LAN 3-2		54 MIL 7-0		104 MIL 11-0
5 LAN 2-1		55 LAN 7-5		105 MIL 11-4
6 MIL 3-1		56 LAN 6-0		106 LAN 10-0
7 MIL 4-2		57 MIL 8-3		107 LAN 11-4
8 MIL 1-0		58 LAN 7-6		108 LAN 9-8
9 MIL 5-4		59 LAN 8-2		109 MIL 12-3
10 LAN 4-3		60 MIL 8-4		110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 3-1		61 LAN 8-3		111 MIL 12-2
12 MIL 4-1		62 MIL 8-0		112 MIL 12-1
13 MIL 2-0		63 LAN 8-4		113 MIL 10-6
14 LAN 4-2		64 MIL 9-2		114 LAN 10-7
15 MIL 3-0		65 LAN 8-1		115 MIL 11-5
16 MIL 5-2		66 MIL 8-5		116 LAN 11-5
17 MIL 5-3		67 MIL 9-1		117 LAN 11-1
18 LAN 4-1		68 LAN 7-0		118 LAN 11-2
19 LAN 1-0		69 MIL 8-7		119 MIL 10-9
20 LAN 5-4		70 MIL 9-3		120 LAN 11-3
21 LAN 2-0		71 LAN 8-5		121 MIL 12-4
22 MIL 5-1		72 LAN 9-3		122 MIL 10-7
23 LAN 5-3		73 LAN 9-2		123 LAN 12-3
24 MIL 6-5		74 MIL 8-6		124 MIL 13-2
25 LAN 5-2		75 MIL 9-4		125 MIL 11-6
26 MIL 4-0		76 LAN 8-6		126 MIL 13-3
27 LAN 3-0		77 MIL 9-0		127 LAN 12-2
28 MIL 6-3		78 MIL 10-1		128 MIL 12-0
29 MIL 6-2		79 LAN 9-1		129 MIL 12-5
30 LAN 5-1		80 MIL 10-2		130 MIL 10-8
31 MIL 6-1		81 LAN 9-4		131 LAN 10-9
32 MIL 5-0		82 LAN 8-7		132 LAN 11-0
33 MIL 6-4		83 LAN 8-0		133 LAN 10-8
34 LAN 6-4		84 LAN 9-5		134 LAN 12-1
35 LAN 6-3		85 MIL 10-3		135 LAN 12-4
36 LAN 6-2		86 MIL 9-5		136 MIL 13-4
37 LAN 4-0		87 MIL 10-0		137 LAN 13-2
38 LAN 6-5		88 LAN 10-3		138 LAN 11-6
39 LAN 6-1		89 LAN 10-2		139 MIL 14-3
40 MIL 7-2		90 MIL 11-2		140 LAN 13-3
41 MIL 7-1		91 MIL 10-4		141 LAN 12-5
42 MIL 6-0		92 MIL 11-3		142 MIL 11-7
43 MIL 7-6		93 LAN 9-0		143 MIL 14-1
44 MIL 7-3		94 MIL 9-8		144 MIL 13-0
45 LAN 5-0		95 LAN 9-6		145 MIL 14-0
46 MIL 7-4		96 LAN 10-1		146 LAN 11-8
47 LAN 7-2		97 MIL 11-1		147 MIL 13-5
48 LAN 7-3		98 LAN 9-7		148 LAN 13-1
49 LAN 7-4		99 LAN 10-4		149 LAN 11-9
50 LAN 7-1		100 MIL 10-5		150 LAN 12-6

April 17th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Wei-Yin Chen vs John Danks	CHA	55.65%	51.67%	TBD
DET	KC	Drew Smyly vs Bruce Chen	DET	52.49%	52.16%	TBD
NYN	ATL	Johan Santana vs Randall Delgado	ATL	50.74%	45.85%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Tyson Ross vs Dan Haren	LAA	65.64%	68.13%	TBD
TEX	BOS	Colby Lewis vs Jon Lester	BOS	53.38%	51.35%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Wandy Rodriguez vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	61.54%	66.26%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Francisco Liriano vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	69.23%	71.58%	TBD
TB	TOR	Jeff Niemann vs Ricky Romero	TOR	57.36%	53.77%	TBD
CHN	FLA	Ryan Dempster vs Josh Johnson	FLA	62.34%	66.35%	TBD
LAN	MIL	Chad Billingsley vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	54.23%	58.37%	TBD
CIN	STL	Johnny Cueto vs Kyle Lohse	STL	52.94%	51.38%	TBD
SD	COL	Anthony Bass vs Jamie Moyer	COL	52.27%	61.59%	TBD
PIT	ARI	Jeff Karstens vs Ian Kennedy	ARI	63.83%	63.32%	TBD
CLE	SEA	Justin Masterson vs Kevin Millwood	CLE	54.02%	57.44%	TBD
PHI	SF	Joe Blanton vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	57.54%	58.90%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 16th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	CHA	Jake Arrieta vs Phil Humber	CHA	54.44%	55.99%	TBD
DET	KC	Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy	DET	64.60%	59.58%	TBD
NYN	ATL	Dillon Gee vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	61.46%	65.10%	TBD
OAK	LAA	Brandon McCarthy vs Jered Weaver	LAA	65.64%	60.91%	TBD
TB	BOS	James Shields vs Daniel Bard	BOS	53.81%	52.89%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Kyle Weiland vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	71.01%	71.86%	TBD
MIN	NYA	Carl Pavano vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	TBD	62.88%	TBD
SD	COL	Cory Luebke vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	55.85%	54.03%	TBD
PIT	ARI	Erik Bedard vs Joe Saunders	ARI	56.24%	49.70%	TBD
PHI	SF	Roy Halladay vs Tim Lincecum	PHI	50.86%	52.37%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 15th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	NYA	Jerome Williams vs Ivan Nova	NYA	63.03%	60.69%	TBD
CLE	KC	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Luis Mendoza	CLE	52.94%	55.82%	TBD
DET	CHA	Rick Porcello vs Chris Sale	CHA	51.34%	46.30%	TBD
MIL	ATL	Chris Narveson vs Brandon Beachy	ATL	58.42%	63.90%	TBD
NYN	PHI	Mike Pelfrey vs Cole Hamels	PHI	64.09%	64.72%	TBD
SD	LAN	Edinson Volquez vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	67.74%	62.55%	TBD
TB	BOS	Matt Moore vs Felix Doubront	TB	52.94%	49.60%	TBD
BAL	TOR	Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek	TOR	59.43%	52.33%	TBD
HOU	FLA	J.A. Happ vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	65.99%	75.25%	TBD
CIN	WAS	Mike Leake vs Ross Detwiler	CIN	50.25%	49.12%	TBD
TEX	MIN	Neftali Feliz vs Liam Hendriks	TEX	62.48%	60.08%	TBD
CHN	STL	Paul Maholm vs Jake Westbrook	STL	63.30%	59.93%	TBD
ARI	COL	Trevor Cahill vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	52.49%	58.07%	TBD
PIT	SF	Kevin Correia vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	59.76%	61.21%	TBD
OAK	SEA	Graham Godfrey vs Blake Beavan	OAK	50.86%	49.42%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 14th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	KC	Jeanmar Gomez vs Jonathan Sanchez	KC	56.62%	54.80%	TBD
DET	CHA	Adam Wilk vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	54.02%	50.57%	TBD
MIL	ATL	Shaun Marcum vs Mike Minor	ATL	50.62%	53.20%	TBD
SD	LAN	Joe Wieland vs Ted Lilly	LAN	56.04%	56.31%	TBD
TB	BOS	Jeremy Hellickson vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	56.24%	57.18%	TBD
CHN	STL	Chris Volstad vs Lance Lynn	STL	64.48%	60.24%	TBD
NYN	PHI	John Niese vs Vance Worley	PHI	58.25%	62.64%	TBD
TEX	MIN	Yu Darvish vs Nick Blackburn	TEX	60.40%	63.35%	TBD
LAA	NYA	C.J. Wilson vs Phil Hughes	NYA	52.49%	47.38%	TBD
CIN	WAS	Homer Bailey vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	52.94%	49.54%	TBD
BAL	TOR	Jason Hammel vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	61.01%	56.15%	TBD
HOU	FLA	Bud Norris vs Carlos Zambrano	FLA	61.69%	65.36%	TBD
ARI	COL	Josh Collmenter vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	58.25%	61.96%	TBD
PIT	SF	Charlie Morton vs Barry Zito	SF	58.76%	52.33%	TBD
OAK	SEA	Tom Milone vs Hector Noesi	SEA	50.62%	49.96%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

NL West Vegas Standings

Here we are only a week or so in to the season. Let's take a look at the NL West Standings and compare the empirical results with the Vegas expectations and see which teams are doing better or worse than expected and by how much.

Team	Veg Exp Wins	Veg Exp Losses	Veg Exp Win%	Actual Wins	Actual Losses	Actual Win%		Delta Wins
Dodgers	3.84	3.16	0.549	6	1	0.857		2.16
Dbacks	2.96	3.04	0.494	5	1	0.833		2.04
Giants	3.03	2.97	0.505	2	4	0.333		-1.03
Rockies	3.20	2.80	0.533	2	4	0.333		-1.20
Padres	3.47	3.53	0.496	2	5	0.286		-1.47

April 13th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CLE	KC	Derek Lowe vs Luke Hochevar	KC	54.23%	50.67%	TBD
DET	CHA	Max Scherzer vs Jake Peavy	DET	51.10%	48.91%	TBD
MIL	ATL	Randy Wolf vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	54.85%	52.81%	TBD
SD	LAN	Clayton Richard vs Aaron Harang	LAN	54.44%	54.81%	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs Josh Beckett	BOS	53.16%	57.38%	TBD
LAA	NYA	Ervin Santana vs Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	57.36%	57.50%	TBD
CHN	STL	Jeff Samardzija vs Adam Wainwright	STL	64.22%	61.94%	TBD
PIT	SF	James McDonald vs Matt Cain	SF	62.19%	64.51%	TBD
CIN	WAS	Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	57.17%	51.57%	TBD
NYN	PHI	R.A. Dickey vs Cliff Lee	PHI	62.19%	69.04%	TBD
BAL	TOR	Tommy Hunter vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	64.35%	58.17%	TBD
HOU	MIA	Lucas Harrell vs Ricky Nolasco	MIA	65.52%	70.74%	TBD
TEX	MIN	Matt Harrison vs Anthony Swarzak	TEX	59.76%	58.74%	TBD
ARI	COL	Daniel Hudson vs Juan Nicasio	COL	50.86%	58.57%	TBD
OAK	SEA	Bartolo Colon vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	60.86%	55.94%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 12th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	SD	Ian Kennedy vs Anthony Bass	ARI	55.65%	56.37%	TBD
PIT	LAN	Jeff Karstens vs Chris Capuano	LAN	57.36%	55.72%	TBD
SEA	TEX	Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland	TEX	68.94%	71.23%	TBD
CIN	WAS	Mat Latos vs Gio Gonzalez	CIN	50.25%	56.11%	TBD
TB	DET	Jeff Niemann vs Drew Smyly	DET	52.49%	58.15%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Dan Haren vs Francisco Liriano	LAA	58.93%	60.19%	TBD
MIL	CHN	Zach Greinke vs Matt Garza	MIL	54.65%	51.28%	TBD
SF	COL	Madison Bumgarner vs Jamie Moyer	SF	54.85%	49.68%	TBD
FLA	PHI	Mark Buehrle vs Joe Blanton	FLA	51.10%	50.14%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 11th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	SD	Joe Saunders vs Cory Luebke	SD	54.44%	61.49%	TBD
CHA	CLE	John Danks vs Justin Masterson	CLE	56.80%	56.70%	TBD
NYA	BAL	C.C. Sabathia vs Jake Arrieta	NYA	61.69%	62.59%	TBD
PIT	LAN	Erik Bedard vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	56.62%	52.40%	TBD
SEA	TEX	Kevin Millwood vs Colby Lewis	TEX	68.75%	68.95%	TBD
STL	CIN	Jaime Garcia vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	54.23%	53.08%	TBD
BOS	TOR	Jon Lester vs Ricky Romero	BOS	52.94%	55.07%	TBD
TB	DET	James Shields vs Justin Verlander	DET	62.89%	62.73%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Stephen Strasburg vs Johan Santana	WAS	50.86%	55.99%	TBD
ATL	HOU	Randall Delgado vs Wandy Rodriguez	ATL	53.81%	50.59%	TBD
MIL	CHN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Ryan Dempster	MIL	53.81%	51.85%	TBD
KC	OAK	Bruce Chen vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	55.26%	55.07%	TBD
FLA	PHI	Josh Johnson vs Roy Halladay	PHI	56.43%	57.88%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Jered Weaver vs Carl Pavano	LAA	62.34%	55.70%	TBD
SF	COL	Tim Lincecum vs Jeremy Guthrie	SF	53.60%	47.54%	TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 10th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
ARI	SD	Trevor Cahill vs Edinson Volquez	ARI	50.74%	48.68%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Phil Humber vs Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	54.02%	53.00%	TBD
PIT	LAN	Kevin Correia vs Clayton Kershaw	LAN	69.23%	68.45%	TBD
SEA	TEX	Blake Beavan vs Neftali Feliz	TEX	70.15%	69.61%	TBD
STL	CIN	Kyle Lohse vs Mike Leake	CIN	51.10%	48.17%	TBD
TB	DET	Matt Moore vs Rick Porcello	DET	51.81%	53.92%	TBD
NYA	BAL	Freddy Garcia vs Wei-Yin Chen	NYA	55.65%	51.39%	TBD
BOS	TOR	Daniel Bard vs Kyle Drabek	BOS	53.81%	53.18%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Ross Detwiler vs Dillon Gee	NYN	54.02%	49.47%	TBD
ATL	HOU	Tommy Hanson vs Kyle Weiland	ATL	64.09%	62.60%	TBD
MIL	CHN	Chris Narveson vs Paul Maholm	MIL	51.57%	51.80%	TBD
KC	OAK	Danny Duffy vs Graham Godfrey	OAK	51.10%	53.01%	TBD

April 9th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
CHA	CLE	Chris Sale vs Josh Tomlin	CLE	51.92%	52.62%	TBD
SEA	TEX	Hector Noesi vs Yu Darvish	TEX	69.23%	73.29%	TBD
STL	CIN	Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey	CIN	51.92%	52.81%	TBD
FLA	PHI	Anibal Sanchez vs Cole Hamels	PHI	57.63%	48.20%	TBD
LAA	MIN	C.J. Wilson vs Nick Blackburn	LAA	60.78%	62.60%	TBD
SF	COL	Barry Zito vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	61.09%	63.71%	TBD
NYA	BAL	Ivan Nova vs Brian Matusz	NYA	58.33%	51.05%	TBD
BOS	TOR	Felix Doubront vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	53.49%	49.68%	TBD
WAS	NYN	Edwin Jackson vs Mike Pelfrey	NYN	50.00%	50.90%	TBD
ATL	HOU	Brandon Beachy vs J.A. Happ	ATL	61.69%	62.00%	TBD
MIL	CHN	Shaun Marcum vs Chris Volstad	MIL	56.33%	51.86%	TBD
KC	OAK	Luis Mendoza vs Tom Milone	OAK	51.22%	57.08%	TBD

April 5th Simulations

Simulations will return on Monday 4/9

2012 MLB Simulations

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Vegas Fave	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Sim Win Prob	Sim O/U
LAN	SD	C.Kershaw	E.Volquez	LAN	58.93%	5.8	57.23%	5.59
Skinny: Two fairly weak offenses, a pitchers park and Clayton Kershaw on the mound all point to a very low scoring game. As long as Volquez is half way decent, it should be a pretty easy under on this one.
TOR	CLE	R.Romero	J.Masterson	TOR	53.16%	7.4	40.90%	7.13
Skinny: Justin Masterson is a better pitcher than given credit for here. He was basically a very similar pitcher to Ricky Romero in the 2011 season. Combine that with HFA and a decent lineup and the Indians make a nice underdog bet here.
BOS	DET	J.Lester	J.Verlander	DET	57.72%	6.9	54.78%	8.71
Skinny: Two very good pitchers meet two good very lineups. Simulator confidently says to take the over on this one.
ATL	NYN	T.Hanson	J.Santana	ATL	50.62%	6.8	47.62%	7.58
Skinny: Kind of hard to say what you are going to get from Johan Santana, but the simulator thinks that the Braves are a little overrated in this game. Take the Mets at home and the over.
PHI	PIT	R.Halladay	E.Bedard	PHI	61.32%	6.6	60.51%	6.40%
Skinny: Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement on this game. Nothing to see here... move on.
WAS	CHN	S.Strasburg	R.Dempster	WAS	59.27%	NA	54.60%	6.91
Skinny: A little bit of value on the ML with the Cubs playing at home. Cubs will need to get to the Nationals bullpen in a close game to win this one.
MIA	CIN	M.Buehrle	J.Cueto	CIN	58.07%	7.8	58.17%	7.93
Skinny: Very little value here. Best to sit this one out.

April 4th Simulations

Cardinals VS Marlins

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Vegas Fave	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Sim Win Prob	Sim Away Runs	Sim Home Runs	Sim O/U	Most Likely Score
STL	MIA	K.Lohse	J.Johnson	Miami	62.05%	6.9	57.10%	4.38	4.88	9.26	MIA 3-2
Skinny: Simulator sees this as a much higher scoring game than Vegas does. In fact after you adjust for home park, the simulator has these two offenses as the NL's two best. Josh Johnson is a tough pitcher, but coming off of an injury riddled season. Lohse is a bit of an enigma as one could easily argue that his good ERA and FIP were luck driven in 2011. At -160 on the ML there looks to be decent value on the Cardinals and with a run total of 7 +100 (Over) an over looks to be the smart play.

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Kyle Lohse	5.84	4.41	1.68	7.47	0.58	95.73	3.845
Jason Motte	0.41	0.46	0.10	0.41	0.02	6.51	2.448
Fernando Salas	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.44	0.04	6.71	3.317
Marc Rzepczynski	0.59	0.60	0.32	0.65	0.06	10.28	4.038
Scott Linebrink	0.29	0.26	0.13	0.35	0.04	5.02	4.506
Kyle McClellan	0.24	0.17	0.09	0.32	0.04	4.10	4.858
J.C. Romero	0.54	0.46	0.38	0.65	0.05	9.99	4.886
Mitchell Boggs	0.32	0.28	0.14	0.38	0.03	5.49	3.910
Josh Johnson	6.00	6.25	1.95	6.67	0.60	99.05	3.393
Heath Bell	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.40	0.03	6.61	2.865
Edward Mujica	0.38	0.39	0.08	0.43	0.05	6.07	3.376
Michael Dunn	0.58	0.63	0.30	0.64	0.08	10.13	4.430
Ryan Webb	0.28	0.22	0.12	0.33	0.01	4.68	3.471
Randy Choate	0.17	0.17	0.09	0.19	0.02	2.94	4.345
Steven Cishek	0.83	0.90	0.34	0.87	0.05	13.99	2.992
Chad Gaudin	0.52	0.50	0.27	0.63	0.09	9.18	5.000

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.517	1.296	0.856	0.328	0.024	0.089	0.375	0.353	0.837	0.337
Carlos Beltran	4.245	1.286	0.755	0.334	0.041	0.156	0.560	0.491	0.949	0.383
Matt Holliday	4.247	1.255	0.737	0.344	0.003	0.171	0.624	0.421	1.144	0.371
Lance Berkman	3.959	1.149	0.725	0.233	0.016	0.175	0.621	0.616	0.946	0.383
David Freese	4.201	1.213	0.837	0.271	0.011	0.093	0.515	0.257	1.153	0.331
Yadier Molina	4.071	1.230	0.858	0.276	0.005	0.090	0.510	0.263	0.637	0.343
Jon Jay	3.982	1.227	0.838	0.277	0.035	0.077	0.475	0.277	0.843	0.353
Daniel Descalso	3.701	1.036	0.683	0.259	0.030	0.064	0.452	0.447	0.868	0.345
Pitchers Spot	3.896	0.453	0.363	0.076	0.003	0.011	0.175	0.149	2.137	0.137
Jose Reyes	4.403	1.515	1.043	0.289	0.117	0.066	0.370	0.324	0.397	0.390
Emilio Bonifacio	4.233	1.342	0.994	0.239	0.064	0.045	0.490	0.369	0.815	0.357
Hanley Ramirez	4.182	1.370	0.939	0.313	0.011	0.107	0.720	0.346	0.723	0.377
Giancarlo Stanton	3.996	1.172	0.657	0.276	0.030	0.208	0.785	0.431	1.107	0.383
Logan Morrison	3.892	1.189	0.688	0.282	0.056	0.163	0.653	0.445	0.718	0.391
Gaby Sanchez	3.801	1.158	0.760	0.288	0.006	0.104	0.549	0.391	0.613	0.366
Omar Infante	3.882	1.294	0.958	0.217	0.059	0.060	0.511	0.204	0.476	0.364
John Buck	3.668	1.033	0.743	0.188	0.006	0.096	0.494	0.319	0.821	0.333
Pitchers Spot	3.743	0.596	0.481	0.099	0.005	0.011	0.196	0.147	1.429	0.178

>

Cory Luebke Budding Ace Or Mirage

Cory Luebke, the Padres 27 year old pitcher made news this spring signing a four year deal with the club. Luebke who didn't really show all that much promise in the minor leagues has impressed heavily in over 100 innings pitched as a starter in the big leagues. While it is a very small sample size (IP-116), Luebke's skill related numbers have been great. How great? Let's take a look at the closest comparables to Luebke using the pitching skilled related stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB over the past two seasons. Like I mentioned above, keep in mind the small sample size and the high probability for some regression from Luebke. The comparables are interesting though.

	Cory Luebke	9.75	2.55	0.96
Rank	Pitcher	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
1	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
2	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
3	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
4	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
5	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
6	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
7	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
8	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
9	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
10	Mike Minor	8.7	2.95	0.92
11	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
12	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
13	Erik Bedard	8.7	3.34	1.11
14	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
15	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
16	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
17	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
18	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
19	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
20	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18

Giants Able To Sign Matt Cain

The Giants signed Matt Cain to a 6 year $127.5M deal. Is he worth this kind of money? No, probably not. He did amass 5.2 fWAR last year and if for some reason you think that is his new baseline then one could probably make an argument in his favor. But let's keep in mind that he did so putting up an unsustainable 0.37 HR/9, 70.6 LOB% and a low BABIP against of 0.260. The Giants bought high on Matt Cain. Let's take a look at three of the main skill stats (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB) that a pitcher can control and compare Matt Cain to his recent peers. The comparison will not take into consideration age, as I am just looking at current skill comparables. I looked at 2010 and 2011 data only.

	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
1	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
2	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
3	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
4	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
5	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
6	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
7	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
8	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
9	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
10	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
11	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
12	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
13	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
14	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
15	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
16	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
17	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
18	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
19	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
20	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
21	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
22	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
23	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
24	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
25	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
26	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34

So, not exactly a stellar group of comparables. Good but not elite or record breaking good.

2012 Organization Rankings (1 - 10)

1-10 | 11 - 20 | 21 - 30

2012 Rank	2011 Rank	Team	Skinny
10	14	Blue Jays	Great minor league system. Good team without bloated payroll.
9	11	Rockies	Solid all the way across.
8	8	Angels	One of the better and richer teams in baseball. Money not always spent wisely though.
7	1	Phillies	Very successful team but core is aging and paid well. Minors is depleted.
6	5	Braves	Good team. Good minor league depth. No terrible contracts dragging them down.
5	9	Red Sox	A consistent winner with deep pockets and decent minor league system.
4	3	Yankees	Big time winner with average minor league system, but you money can't buy you a #1 ranking.
3	13	Cardinals	Your 2011 Champions have a strong minor league system to replace aging vets. Payroll is spent efficiently.
2	2	Rays	Consistent winner, solid minors, efficient payroll... All done on a shoe-string budget. Impressive!!!
1	4	Rangers	Back to back trips to the World Series and all signs point to the Rangers being good for a long time.

Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Prospectus
Forbes

Early Opening Day Simulation

Here is a screen shot of the output of the simulation for the opening day game on April 5th between the Dodgers and Padres. I made my best guess at lineups. The screenshot image will appear small on your screen. Click on it and you will see a larger and more readable version.