July 31st Simulations

Furcal So Long ...

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
Favorite: Dodgers	ML: -117 +112 53.38%	Simulator: 59.53%
Vegas Over/Under: 7.5	Over +108	Under -118
Simulator Over/Under: 8.29	Over: 51.67%	Under: 48.33%	Result: OVER
Top 5 Most Likely Scores: LAN 3-2, LAN 4-3, LAN 2-1, LAN 5-4, ARI 3-2
Joe Saunders: IP 5.71, SO 3.70, BB 1.87, HR 0.71, FIP 4.50
Rubby De La Rosa: IP 6.00, SO 7.11, BB 2.24, HR 0.54, FIP 3.11
Final Score: #30 ARI 6-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Phillies	J.Karstens vs V.Worley	Phillies	65.52%	69.07%	TBD
Cubs	Cardinals	R.Dempster vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	58.07%	57.79%	TBD
NYN	WAS	John Niese vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	TBD	51.195	TBD
HOU	MIL	Brett Myers vs Chris Narveson	MIL	TBD	67.312	TBD
SF	CIN	Barry Zito vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	TBD	60.303	TBD
MIN	OAK	Carl Pavano vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	57.101	TBD
TEX	TOR	C.J. Wilson vs Brandon Morrow	TEX	TBD	51.134	TBD
LAA	DET	Jered Weaver vs Justin Verlander	DET	TBD	60.61	TBD
TB	SEA	Jeremy Hellickson vs Jason Vargas	SEA	TBD	51.742	TBD
BOS	CHA	Andrew Miller vs Mark Buehrle	CHA	TBD	51.28	TBD
BAL	NYA	Jake Arrieta vs Freddy Garcia	NYA	TBD	68.333	TBD
KC	CLE	Kyle Davies vs Fausto Carmona	CLE	TBD	56.65	TBD
COL	SD	Juan Nicasio vs Wade LeBlanc	COL	TBD	55.847	TBD
FLA	ATL	Ricky Nolasco vs Tommy Hanson	ATL	TBD	58.744	TBD

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July 30th Simulations

25-25 Vision ...

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers

Favorite: Dodgers, ML: -128 +123 55.65% Simulator: 63.05%

Vegas Over/Under: 7 Over -107 Under -103

Simulator Over/Under: 7.54 Over: 50.46% Under: 49.54%

Top 5 Most Likely Scores: LAN 3-2, LAN 2-1, LAN 4-3, LAN 3-1, LAN 5-4

Micah Owings: IP 5.85, SO 3.82, BB 1.95, HR 0.60, FIP 4.22

Chad Billingsley: IP 6.35, SO 7.33, BB 2.03, HR 0.42, FIP 2.70

Final Score: ARI 6-4 #35th Most Likely Score

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Orioles	Yankees	C.Tillman vs B.Colon	Yankees	TBD	64.28%	NYA 8-3
Orioles	Yankees	Z.Britton vs I.Nova	Yankees	TBD	57.59%	NYA 17-3
TEX	TOR	Derek Holland vs Brad Mills	TEX	53.16%	52.98%	TEX 3-0
MIN	OAK	Nick Blackburn vs Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	55.85%	51.58%	OAK 8-3
BOS	CHA	Jon Lester vs Phil Humber	BOS	58.07%	54.48%	BOS 10-2
KC	CLE	Felipe Paulino vs Justin Masterson	CLE	60.24%	59.95%	CLE 5-2
FLA	ATL	Anibal Sanchez vs Tim Hudson	ATL	58.42%	53.65%	ATL 5-1
TB	SEA	Alex Cobb vs Michael Pineda	SEA	52.04%	54.30%	SEA 3-2
CHN	STL	Rodrigo Lopez vs Kyle Lohse	STL	62.76%	65.03%	STL 13-5
HOU	MIL	J.A. Happ vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	71.35%	67.55%	MIL 6-2
Giants	Reds	M.Bumgarner vs M.Leake	Reds	52.72%	44.07%	CIN 7-2
LAA	DET	Dan Haren vs Duane Below	LAA	54.85%	50.09%	LAA 5-1
NYN	WAS	R.A. Dickey vs Jason Marquis	NYN	50.62%	48.73%	WAS 3-0
Pirates	Phillies	J.McDonald vs C.Lee	Phillies	70.76%	70.82%	PHI 7-4
Rockies	Padres	U.Jimenez vs A.Harang	Rockies	55.06%	56.53%	COL 10-6

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July 29th Simulations

Deadline Passes On Dodgers Season ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Collmenter vs T.Lilly	DBacks	52.27%	51.20%	LAN 9-5
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs C.Carrasco	Indians	55.46%	56.50%	KC 12-0
Rockies	Padres	J.Hammel vs T.Stauffer	Padres	54.02%	55.60%	COL 3-2
Rangers	Blue Jays	A.Ogando vs B.Cecil	Rangers	54.65%	55.60%	TOR 3-2
Marlins	Braves	C.Hensley vs B.Beachy	Braves	60.86%	62.93%	FLA 5-0
Angels	Tigers	T.Chatwood vs R.Porcello	Tigers	58.07%	61.20%	DET 12-2
Mets	Nationals	D.Gee vs C.Wang	Mets	52.941%	52.936%	NYN 8-5
Twins	Athletics	F.Liriano vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	57.17%	55.86%	MIN 9-5
Pirates	Phillies	C.Morton vs R.Halladay	Phillies	72.30%	67.64%	PHI 10-3
Red Sox	White Sox	T.Wakefield vs G.Floyd	White Sox	50.62%	52.07%	CHA 3-1
Rays	Mariners	J.Niemann vs E.Bedard	Rays	50.62%	46.85%	TB 8-0
Orioles	Yankees	J.Guthrie vs A.Burnett	Yankees	65.22%	60.54%	BAL 4-2
Astros	Brewers	J.Lyles vs R.Wolf	Brewers	63.57%	63.41%	MIL 4-0
Cubs	Cardinals	M.Garza vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	55.46%	63.97%	STL 9-2
Giants	Reds	R.Vogelsong vs D.Willis	Reds	50.86%	52.02%	CIN 4-3

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July 28th Simulations

So Long Farewell ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Reds	C.Capuano vs H.Bailey	Reds	57.17%	51.99%	NYN 10-9
Twins	Rangers	S.Baker vs M.Harrison	Rangers	59.27%	56.16%	TBD
Angels	Tigers	J.Pineiro vs B.Penny	Tigers	56.62%	59.08%	LAA 12-7
Astros	Cardinals	W.Rodriguez vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	64.35%	70.10%	TBD
Pirates	Braves	K.Correia vs D.Lowe	Braves	60.86%	64.01%	PIT 5-2
Cubs	Brewers	R.Wells vs S.Marcum	Brewers	64.22%	61.28%	MIL 4-2
Marlins	Nationals	C.Hensley vs J.Lannan	Nationals	TBD	59.41%	FLA 5-2
DBacks	Padres	D.Hudson vs M.Latos	Padres	50.62%	52.23%	SD 4-3
Rays	Athletics	W.Davis vs R.Harden	Athletics	54.65%	54.15%	TB 10-8
Giants	Phillies	T.Lincecum vs K.Kendrick	Giants	56.24%	56.35%	SF 4-1
Orioles	Blue Jays	B.Bergesen vs C.Villanueva	Blue Jays	59.76%	54.84%	TOR 8-5
Royals	Red Sox	L.Hochevar vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	72.86%	74.70%	KC 4-3

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July 27th Simulations

Swan Song ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	A.Cook vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	58.33%	52.16%	COL 3-1
Angels	Indians	E.Santana vs D.Huff	Angels	TBD	50.73%	LAA 3-1
Orioles	Blue Jays	A.Simon vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	TBD	53.30%	TOR 3-0
Mets	Reds	M.Pelfrey vs B.Arroyo	Reds	TBD	52.34%	NYN 8-2
Royals	Red Sox	B.Chen vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	TBD	68.75%	BOS 12-5
Pirates	Braves	P.Maholm vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	TBD	60.47%	ATL 2-1
Marlins	Nationals	J.Vazquez vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	TBD	59.63%	FLA 7-5
Cubs	Brewers	C.Zambrano vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	TBD	62.28%	MIL 2-0
DBacks	Padres	I.Kennedy vs C.Luebke	Padres	TBD	54.84%	ARI 4-3
Tigers	White Sox	M.Scherzer vs J.Danks	White Sox	TBD	50.33%	CHA 2-1
Rays	Athletics	J.Shields vs T.Cahill	Rays	TBD	50.16%	OAK 13-4
Twins	Rangers	B.Duensing vs C.Lewis	Rangers	TBD	55.35%	MIN 7-2
Astros	Cardinals	B.Norris vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	TBD	68.15%	HOU 4-2
Giants	Phillies	M.Cain vs C.Hamels	Phillies	TBD	60.71%	SF 2-1
Mariners	Yankees	F.Hernandez vs P.Hughes	Yankees	TBD	59.62%	SEA 9-2

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July 26th Simulations

Yippity Doo Dah ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	59.43%	57.09%	LAN 3-2
Mariners	Yankees	D.Fister vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	74.68%	68.54%	NYA 4-1
Astros	Cardinals	B.Myers vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	62.05%	65.01%	STL 3-1
Tigers	White Sox	J.Verlander vs J.Peavy	Tigers	60.08%	55.68%	DET 5-4
Giants	Phillies	T.Lincecum vs V.Worley	Phillies	51.34%	54.62%	PHI 7-2
Angels	Indians	J.Weaver vs J.Tomlin	Angels	56.24%	56.01%	LAA 2-1
DBacks	Padres	J.Saunders vs D.Moseley	Padres	52.49%	56.34%	ARI 6-1
Royals	Red Sox	D.Duffy vs A.Miller	Red Sox	63.70%	68.37%	BOS 13-9
Mets	Reds	J.Niese vs J.Cueto	Reds	58.59%	50.00%	NYN 8-6
Cubs	Brewers	R.Dempster vs C.Narveson	Brewers	57.54%	57.16%	MIL 3-2
Rays	Athletics	D.Price vs B.McCarthy	Rays	56.99%	48.78%	OAK 6-1
Twins	Rangers	C.Pavano vs C.Wilson	Rangers	67.21%	65.83%	MIN 9-8
Pirates	Braves	J.Karstens vs T.Hanson	Braves	63.96%	69.37%	ATL 4-3
Marlins	Nationals	R.Nolasco vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	56.62%	55.85%	FLA 11-2
Orioles	Blue Jays	J.Arrieta vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	63.30%	60.78%	BAL 12-4

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July 25th Simulations

Operation Third Place ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Nicasio vs R.De La Rosa	Dodgers	52.49%	48.82%	LAN 8-5
Mariners	Yankees	J.Vargas vs F.Garcia	Yankees	66.89%	65.47%	NYA 10-3
Pirates	Braves	J.McDonald vs T.Hudson	Braves	64.85%	64.88%	PIT 3-1
Rays	Athletics	J.Hellickson vs G.Moscoso	Rays	53.38%	49.36%	OAK 7-5
Angels	Indians	D.Haren vs F.Carmona	Angels	54.65%	55.20%	CLE 3-2
Astros	Cardinals	J.Happ vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	64.85%	65.31%	STL 10-5
Royals	Red Sox	K.Davies vs J.Lester	Red Sox	72.38%	73.05%	KC 3-1
Tigers	White Sox	D.Below vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	57.36%	53.99%	CHA 6-3
Twins	Rangers	N.Blackburn vs D.Holland	Rangers	62.76%	60.47%	TEX 20-6
Mets	Reds	R.Dickey vs M.Leake	Reds	56.99%	54.51%	NYN 4-2
Padres	Phillies	A.Harang vs C.Lee	Phillies	68.75%	68.77%	SD 5-4

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July 24th Simulations

Bet The Under on Dodgers and Billingsley ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Nationals	Dodgers	J.Marquis vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	55.85%	59.05%	LAN 3-1
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Cecil vs A.Ogando	Rangers	66.67%	66.77%	TOR 3-0
Mariners	Red Sox	M.Pineda vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	58.59%	57.95%	BOS 12-8
Angels	Orioles	T.Chatwood vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	53.16%	56.13%	LAA 9-3
Brewers	Giants	Y.Gallardo vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	51.10%	61.69%	SF 2-1
White Sox	Indians	P.Humber vs J.Masterson	Indians	56.04%	56.06%	CHA 4-2
Padres	Phillies	T.Stauffer vs R.Halladay	Phillies	68.75%	66.20%	PHI 5-3
Rockies	DBacks	U.Jimenez vs M.Owings	Rockies	TBD	58.84%	ARI 7-0
Rays	Royals	A.Cobb vs F.Paulino	Royals	TBD	56.77%	TB 5-0
Astros	Cubs	J.Lyles vs M.Garza	Cubs	TBD	66.54%	CHN 5-4
Athletics	Yankees	G.Gonzalez vs B.Colon	Yankees	TBD	58.88%	NYA 7-5
Cardinals	Pirates	K.Lohse vs C.Morton	Cardinals	TBD	52.89%	PIT 4-3
Tigers	Twins	R.Porcello vs F.Liriano	Twins	TBD	54.64%	DET 5-2
Mets	Marlins	D.Gee vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	TBD	57.15%	FLA 5-4
Braves	Reds	B.Beachy vs D.Willis	Reds	TBD	51.60%	CIN 4-3

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July 23rd Simulations

Ted Home Run Derby Lilly ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Nationals	Dodgers	T.Gorzelanny vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	56.04%	54.82%	LAN 7-6
White Sox	Indians	E.Jackson vs D.Huff	Indians	50.62%	47.61%	Ppd.
Cardinals	Pirates	J.Garcia vs K.Correia	Cardinals	56.62%	63.66%	STL 9-1
Padres	Phillies	M.Latos vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	57.17%	51.72%	PHI 8-6
Tigers	Twins	B.Penny vs S.Baker	Twins	56.24%	57.62%	MIN 4-1
Athletics	Yankees	R.Harden vs A.Burnett	Yankees	63.83%	64.50%	OAK 4-3
Mets	Marlins	C.Capuano vs C.Hensley	Marlins	54.85%	46.27%	FLA 8-5
Braves	Reds	D.Lowe vs H.Bailey	Reds	54.23%	52.08%	CIN 11-2
Brewers	Giants	R.Wolf vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	55.26%	55.84%	SF 4-2
Angels	Orioles	J.Pineiro vs B.Bergesen	Orioles	50.62%	55.34%	BAL 3-2
Rays	Royals	J.Niemann vs J.Francis	Rays	50.62%	50.57%	KC 5-4
Rockies	DBacks	J.Hammel vs J.Collmenter	DBacks	58.59%	57.72%	ARI 12-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	C.Villanueva vs M.Harrison	Rangers	60.55%	64.02%	TEX 5-4
Astros	Cubs	W.Rodriguez vs R.Wells	Cubs	52.72%	53.37%	CHN 5-1
Mariners	Red Sox	B.Beavan vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	72.49%	71.05%	BOS 3-1

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July 22nd Simulations

Hiroki Kuroda Appreciation Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Nationals	Dodgers	J.Lannan vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	57.36%	56.77%	WAS 7-2
Braves	Reds	J.Jurrjens vs B.Arroyo	Braves	53.81%	51.22%	ATL 6-4
Astros	Cubs	B.Norris vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	58.42%	57.38%	CHN 4-2
Angels	Orioles	E.Santana vs A.Simon	Angels	51.34%	46.62%	LAA 6-1
Cardinals	Pirates	C.Carpenter vs P.Maholm	Cardinals	55.85%	57.54%	STL 6-4
Athletics	Yankees	T.Cahill vs P.Hughes	Yankees	61.01%	61.86%	NYA 17-7
Tigers	Twins	M.Scherzer vs B.Duensing	Twins	TBD	52.45%	DET 8-2
Rockies	DBacks	A.Cook vs D.Hudson	DBacks	TBD	56.06%	COL 8-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs C.Lewis	Rangers	TBD	65.92%	TEX 12-2
White Sox	Indians	G.Floyd vs C.Carrasco	Indians	TBD	52.64%	CHA 3-0
Brewers	Giants	S.Marcum vs M.Cain	Giants	TBD	60.30%	MIL 4-2
Padres	Phillies	C.Luebke vs C.Hamels	Phillies	TBD	63.69%	PHI 3-1
Rays	Royals	W.Davis vs L.Hochevar	Rays	TBD	51.34%	KC 10-4
Mets	Marlins	M.Pelfrey vs C.Volstad	Marlins	TBD	53.09%	NYN 7-6
Mariners	Red Sox	F.Hernandez vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	56.99%	59.97%	BOS 7-4

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July 21st Simulations

Travel Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Twins	J.Verlander vs C.Pavano	Tigers	60.08%	58.19%	DET 6-2
Padres	Marlins	D.Moseley vs J.Vazquez	Marlins	61.32%	58.74%	SD 5-3
Braves	Rockies	T.Hanson vs J.Chacin	Rockies	50.62%	56.70%	ATL 9-6
Yankees	Rays	C.Sabathia vs J.Shields	Yankees	56.99%	58.63%	TB 2-1
Brewers	DBacks	Z.Greinke vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	51.10%	49.75%	ARI 4-0
Mariners	Blue Jays	D.Fister vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	63.30%	51.88%	TOR 7-5
Rangers	Angels	C.Wilson vs J.Weaver	Angels	54.23%	49.14%	LAA 1-0
Cardinals	Mets	J.Westbrook vs J.Niese	Mets	52.72%	55.13%	STL 6-2

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July 20th Simulations

Kershcum ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs T.Lincecum	Giants	55.85%	54.59%	LAN 1-0
Cardinals	Mets	K.McClellan vs R.Dickey	Mets	51.10%	48.92%	NYN 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	A.Miller vs J.Arrieta	Red Sox	52.94%	53.57%	BOS 4-0
Brewers	DBacks	C.Narveson vs J.Saunders	DBacks	50.86%	46.53%	MIL 5-2
Nationals	Astros	L.Hernandez vs B.Myers	Astros	52.49%	49.48%	HOU 3-2
White Sox	Royals	J.Danks vs B.Chen	White Sox	52.94%	51.19%	KC 2-1
Mariners	Blue Jays	J.Vargas vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	60.40%	60.84%	TOR 11-6
Yankees	Rays	F.Garcia vs D.Price	Rays	57.72%	53.86%	NYA 4-0
Athletics	Tigers	B.McCarthy vs D.Below	Tigers	54.65%	54.75%	OAK 7-5
Reds	Pirates	J.Cueto vs J.Karstens	Reds	54.85%	57.88%	CIN 3-1
Padres	Marlins	A.Harang vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	58.59%	62.04%	SD 14-3
Rangers	Angels	D.Holland vs D.Haren	Angels	56.62%	51.70%	LAA 9-8
Indians	Twins	J.Tomlin vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.49%	54.99%	MIN 7-5
Phillies	Cubs	V.Worley vs R.Dempster	Phillies	50.11%	45.34%	PHI 9-1
Braves	Rockies	T.Hudson vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	50.62%	58.22%	COL 3-2

Notes from today's Dodgers game: The over/under on today's game is 5.5 (O -117, U 107) is the 5th lowest over/under of the season so far from Vegas. According to the simulator it is the 27th lowest. The simulator says the OVER will hit 50.14% of the time, making this a very fair line.

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July 19th Simulations

Rubby Hopes To Garner A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	R.DeLaRosa vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	57.36%	64.06%	SF 5-3
Yankees	Rays	B.Colon vs J.Hellickson	Yankees	TBD	53.64%	TBD
Reds	Pirates	M.Leake vs J.McDonald	Reds	TBD	53.50%	TBD
CHA	KC	Jake Peavy vs Danny Duffy	CHA	TBD	54.694	TBD
OAK	DET	Guillermo Moscoso vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	61.302	TBD
SD	FLA	Tim Stauffer vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	TBD	56.548	TBD
CLE	MIN	Justin Masterson vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	TBD	55.325	TBD
MIL	ARI	Yovanni Gallardo vs Barry Enright	MIL	TBD	54.141	TBD
PHI	CHN	Cliff Lee vs Matt Garza	PHI	TBD	50.331	TBD
STL	NYN	Kyle Lohse vs Dillon Gee	STL	TBD	54.689	TBD
ATL	COL	Brandon Beachy vs Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	TBD	64.315	TBD
WAS	HOU	Jordan Zimmerman vs J.A. Happ	WAS	TBD	55.157	TBD
SEA	TOR	Michael Pineda vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	50.584	TBD
TEX	LAA	Alexi Ogando vs Tyler Chatwood	TEX	TBD	54.582	TBD
BOS	BAL	Kyle Weiland vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	50.153	TBD

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July 18th Simulations

Ryan Vogelsong, FIPster ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	55.46%	51.74%	SF 5-0
Brewers	DBacks	R.Wolf vs J.Collmenter	DBacks	54.85%	58.09%	ARI 3-0
Phillies	Cubs	R.Halladay vs R.Lopez	Phillies	64.48%	59.42%	TBD
Yankees	Rays	A.Burnett vs A.Cobb	Yankees	53.60%	51.48%	TBD
White Sox	Royals	M.Buehrle vs K.Davies	White Sox	54.02%	52.72%	TBD
Red Sox	Orioles	T.Wakefield vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	54.85%	52.04%	TBD
Reds	Pirates	D.Willis vs J.McDonald	Pirates	51.10%	49.63%	TBD
Braves	Rockies	D.Lowe vs J.Hammel	Rockies	54.23%	57.85%	TBD
Nationals	Astros	J.Marquis vs J.Lyles	Nationals	50.62%	52.51%	TBD
Indians	Twins	D.Huff vs A.Swarzak	Twins	TBD	55.27%	CLE 5-2
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs S.Diamond	Twins	TBD	54.52%	TBD
Marlins	Mets	C.Hensley vs C.Capuano	Mets	55.85%	57.72%	TBD

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July 17th Simulations

Lilly Free Baseball Souvenir Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	T.Lilly vs D.Hudson	DBacks	60.16%	64.51%	ARI 4-1
BOS	TB	Josh Beckett vs Jeff Niemann	BOS	57.08%	58.53%	BOS 1-0
MIL	COL	Shaun Marcum vs Aaron Cook	COL	50.00%	59.84%	MIL 4-3
NYA	TOR	Phil Hughes vs Carlos Villanueva	NYA	53.49%	54.47%	NYA 7-2
PIT	HOU	Kevin Correia vs Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	55.36%	56.33%	PIT 7-5
Cardinals	Reds	J.Garcia vs H.Bailey	Reds	51.22%	41.35%	CIN 3-1
Marlins	Cubs	C.Volstad vs R.Wells	Marlins	51.22%	42.80%	FLA 7-5
LAA	OAK	Joel Pineiro vs Gio Gonzalez	OAK	56.71%	57.45%	OAK 9-1
CLE	BAL	Jeanmar Gomez vs Mitch Atkins	BAL	50.20%	57.50%	BAL 8-3
KC	MIN	Felipe Paulino vs Brian Duensing	MIN	54.75%	57.79%	MIN 4-3
Giants	Padres	M.Cain vs M.Latos	Padres	51.92%	52.42%	SF 4-3
WAS	ATL	Tom Gorzelanny vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	62.26%	62.98%	ATL 9-8
TEX	SEA	Matt Harrison vs Blake Beavan	TEX	56.90%	57.75%	TEX 3-1
PHI	NYN	Kyle Kendrick vs Mike Pelfrey	PHI	50.80%	50.78%	PHI 8-5
White Sox	Tigers	P.Humber vs B.Penny	Tigers	51.92%	54.59%	DET 4-3

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July 16th Simulations

Kuroda Trade Bait ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	H.Kuroda vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	55.65%	55.85%	ARI 3-2
Nationals	Braves	J.Lannan vs T.Hanson	Braves	63.57%	62.04%	WAS 5-2
White Sox	Tigers	E.Jackson vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	TBD	57.28%	CHA 5-0
Cardinals	Reds	C.Carpenter vs B.Arroyo	Cardinals	TBD	59.80%	STL 4-1
Brewers	Rockies	Z.Greinke vs J.Chacin	Rockies	TBD	56.43%	MIL 8-7
Royals	Twins	J.Francis vs C.Pavano	Twins	TBD	58.61%	MIN 4-3
Rangers	Mariners	C.Wilson vs F.Hernandez	Rangers	TBD	53.56%	TBD
Yankees	Blue Jays	C.Sabathia vs R.Romero	Yankees	TBD	63.03%	NYA 4-1
Giants	Padres	B.Zito vs C.Luebke	Padres	TBD	58.14%	SD 11-3
Red Sox	Rays	J.Lackey vs J.Shields	Rays	TBD	51.07%	BOS 9-5
Pirates	Astros	P.Maholm vs B.Norris	Astros	TBD	55.51%	HOU 6-4
Phillies	Mets	C.Hamels vs J.Niese	Phillies	TBD	52.05%	NYN 11-2
Indians	Orioles	C.Carrasco vs A.Simon	Orioles	TBD	53.10%	BAL 6-5
Marlins	Cubs	J.Vazquez vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	TBD	62.38%	FLA 13-3
Angels	Atheletics	J.Weaver vs T.Cahill	Angels	TBD	51.66%	LAA 4-2
Angels	Atheletics	E.Santana vs R.Harden	Atheletics	TBD	50.66%	OAK 4-3

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July 15th Simulations

Kershaw's Last Stand ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs J.Saunders	Dodgers	54.65%	57.88%	LAN 6-4
Cardinals	Reds	J.Westbrook vs J.Cueto	Reds	60.24%	53.60%	CIN 6-5
Phillies	Mets	V.Worley vs R.Dickey	Phillies	50.86%	51.99%	PHI 7-2
Royals	Twins	L.Hochevar vs N.Blackburn	Twins	54.65%	60.06%	KC 2-1
Rangers	Mariners	C.Lewis vs D.Fister	Rangers	52.72%	47.45%	TEX 4-0
Marlins	Cubs	R.Nolasco vs R.Dempster	Cubs	52.49%	54.19%	CHN 2-1
Angels	Athletics	D.Haren vs B.McCarthy	Angels	53.60%	46.48%	OAK 5-3
Yankees	Blue Jays	F.Garcia vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	50.62%	50.60%	TOR 7-1
Pirates	Astros	J.Karstens vs B.Myers	Astros	50.86%	53.57%	PIT 4-0
White Sox	Tigers	G.Floyd vs J.Verlander	Tigers	65.22%	65.29%	CHA 8-2
Brewers	Rockies	C.Narveson vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	54.44%	54.95%	COL 4-0
Indians	Orioles	J.Tomlin vs J.Arrieta	Orioles	52.27%	52.40%	CLE 6-5
Nationals	Braves	L.Hernandez vs T.Hudson	Braves	62.89%	57.84%	ATL 11-1
Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs D.Moseley	Giants	56.04%	55.04%	SF 6-1
Red Sox	Rays	A.Miller vs D.Price	Rays	58.59%	58.96%	TB 9-6

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July 14th Simulations

Dodgers Earn Home Field Advantage in the World Series ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Indians	Orioles	J.Masterson vs J.Guthrie	Indians	50.86%	52.11%	CLE 8-4
Brewers	Rockies	Y.Gallardo vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.17%	65.17%	COL 12-3
Royals	Twins	B.Chen vs F.Liriano	Twins	59.76%	61.93%	MIN 8-4
Yankees	Blue Jays	B.Colon vs J.Reyes	Yankees	57.54%	53.43%	TOR 16-7
Giants	Padres	M.Bumgarner vs A.Harang	Padres	51.10%	42.96%	SF 6-2
Rangers	Mariners	D.Holland vs J.Vargas	Rangers	52.04%	53.39%	TEX 5-0
Marlins	Cubs	A.Sanchez vs M.Garza	Cubs	52.72%	53.19%	FLA 6-3

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The 2011 All-Flub Teams

Recently, Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs authored an article where he listed the 2011 All-Flub Teams. Steve included both an NL and AL team of players who are the kings of underachievers from both leagues. In the article Steve posed the question of which of these two teams would win a head to head matchup. I volunteered to run the two teams through my baseball simulator to find out. I ran two simulations, one with each league's flops as the home team. I selected Sean O'Sullivan as the American League's top flop pitcher and Armando Galarraga as the National League's starting pitcher. Each matchup was simulated 100K times. I also used neutral park factors for all of the simulated games. Below are the results as well as some of the stats.

Away	Home	Starting Pitchers	Favorite	Win Probability	Total Runs
American	National	S.O'Sullivan vs A.Galarraga	National	51.567%	9.69
National	American	A.Galarraga vs S.O'Sullivan	American	56.979%	9.71

Results: The simulator thinks that the American League team is slightly better. If you average the win probability of the away/home series the American League wins 52.706% of the time, with right around 9.7 runs scoring on average. Below are some of the box score stats taken from the matchup where the National League was the home team.

Pitchers Boxscores

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Sean O'Sullivan	5.697	3.025	1.982	6.841	0.748	91.555	4.888
Jon Rauch	0.445	0.343	0.101	0.465	0.051	6.82	3.819
Mike Gonzalez	0.413	0.364	0.168	0.432	0.063	6.791	4.641
Daniel Schlereth	0.67	0.573	0.352	0.721	0.108	11.458	5.158
Jason Berken	0.419	0.317	0.144	0.471	0.071	6.775	4.912
Adam Russell	0.699	0.365	0.324	0.805	0.058	11.53	4.632
Joe Nathan	0.343	0.298	0.119	0.365	0.052	5.551	4.484
Andy Sonnanstine	0.018	0.009	0.006	0.022	0.003	0.286	5.647
Armando Galarraga	5.808	3.164	2.146	7.073	0.621	94.435	4.609
Ryan Franklin	0.409	0.3	0.085	0.467	0.061	6.337	4.298
Michael Dunn	0.429	0.445	0.193	0.414	0.044	7.149	3.8
Pat Neshek	0.712	0.564	0.367	0.784	0.087	12.131	4.745
Sean Burnett	0.483	0.351	0.168	0.535	0.045	7.771	3.996
Miguel Batista	0.97	0.637	0.46	1.122	0.086	16.277	4.461
John Grabow	0.354	0.228	0.158	0.42	0.044	5.916	4.856
Aneury Rodriguez	0.007	0.005	0.002	0.008	0.001	0.114	4.366

Hitters Boxscore

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Juan Pierre	4.57	1.406	1.138	0.17	0.039	0.06	0.399	0.42	0.371	0.343	0.325
Chone Figgins	4.389	1.368	0.959	0.324	0.02	0.064	0.466	0.406	0.607	0.357	0.351
Alex Rios	4.457	1.374	0.918	0.323	0.019	0.114	0.59	0.279	0.54	0.354	0.331
Justin Morneau	4.2	1.27	0.773	0.327	0.011	0.16	0.673	0.481	0.588	0.379	0.322
Adam Dunn	3.923	1.013	0.497	0.29	0.004	0.221	0.694	0.651	1.178	0.375	0.314
David Murphy	3.962	1.218	0.813	0.237	0.02	0.148	0.601	0.491	0.589	0.382	0.332
Orlando Cabrera	4.08	1.168	0.778	0.297	0.013	0.081	0.503	0.221	0.47	0.327	0.308
Cliff Pennington	3.866	1.092	0.754	0.239	0.036	0.063	0.449	0.325	0.64	0.331	0.325
Jeff Mathis	3.785	0.915	0.594	0.238	0.006	0.077	0.429	0.305	0.711	0.295	0.28
Mike Cameron	4.31	1.245	0.694	0.375	0.043	0.133	0.497	0.381	0.615	0.36	0.312
Ryan Spilborghs	4.129	1.226	0.76	0.293	0.017	0.157	0.538	0.442	0.671	0.371	0.324
Aubrey Huff	4.032	1.151	0.719	0.246	0.029	0.158	0.56	0.509	0.549	0.368	0.299
Chris Johnson	4.157	1.231	0.766	0.317	0.031	0.118	0.589	0.23	0.733	0.348	0.337
Raul Ibanez	3.88	1.132	0.672	0.272	0.028	0.16	0.614	0.447	0.623	0.374	0.314
Casey McGehee	3.832	1.113	0.69	0.28	0.004	0.139	0.561	0.331	0.548	0.356	0.31
Bill Hall	3.761	1.037	0.59	0.298	0.034	0.115	0.498	0.296	0.697	0.343	0.313
Yuniesky Betancourt	3.761	1.067	0.699	0.242	0.034	0.093	0.464	0.187	0.364	0.329	0.295
Dioner Navarro	3.473	0.918	0.592	0.227	0.019	0.081	0.398	0.373	0.493	0.33	0.289

And here is a bar chart showing how the run totals are distributed. The x-axis the total runs scored in the game and the y-axis is how many occurrences this happened. As you can tell from the chart a run total of 7 and 9 runs is the most common occurrence.

July 10th Simulations

Another 1-0 game? ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	50.50%	49.53%	LAN 4-1
Braves	Phillies	D.Lowe vs C.Hamels	Phillies	62.55%	61.52%	PHI 14-1
COL	WAS	Jhoulys Chacin vs Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	TBD	55.131	WAS 2-0
HOU	FLA	Wandy Rodriguez vs Chris Volstad	FLA	TBD	53.094	FLA 5-4
CHN	PIT	Ramon Ortiz vs Paul Maholm	PIT	TBD	56.784	PIT 9-1
MIN	CHA	Anthony Swarzak vs Jake Peavy	CHA	TBD	59.954	MIN 6-3
NYN	SF	Mike Pelfrey vs Matt Cain	SF	TBD	64.596	SF 4-2
TB	NYA	James Shields vs C.C. Sabathia	NYA	TBD	70.348	NYA 1-0
OAK	TEX	Trevor Cahill vs Matt Harrison	TEX	TBD	55.208	TEX 2-0
ARI	STL	Zach Duke vs Jaime Garcia	STL	TBD	66.504	STL 4-2
DET	KC	Justin Verlander vs Jeff Francis	DET	TBD	59.532	DET 2-1
SEA	LAA	Felx Hernandez vs Dan Haren	LAA	TBD	55.951	LAA 4-2
TOR	CLE	Brett Cecil vs Carlos Carrasco	CLE	TBD	60.03	TOR 7-1
BAL	BOS	Mitch Atkins vs Kyle Weiland	BOS	TBD	63.585	BOS 8-6
CIN	MIL	Dontrelle Willis vs Randy Wolf	MIL	TBD	61.503	MIL 4-3

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July 9th Simulations

First One To Score Wins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	A.Harang vs R.DeLaRosa	Dodgers	54.65%	56.15%	LAN 1-0
DBacks	Cardinals	D.Hudson vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	57.17%	59.83%	TBD
Tigers	Royals	C.Furbush vs L.Hochevar	Royals	52.94%	45.58%	TBD
Orioles	Red Sox	A.Simon vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	TBD	61.84%	TBD
Athletics	Rangers	B.McCarthy vs C.Lewis	Rangers	62.62%	48.31%	TBD
Reds	Brewers	J.Cueto vs S.Marcum	Brewers	50.62%	59.62%	TBD
CHN	PIT	Ryan Dempster vs Kevin Correia	CHN	TBD	53.307	TBD
COL	WAS	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Jason Marquis	COL	TBD	54.396	TBD
TOR	CLE	Brandon Morrow vs Josh Tomlin	TOR	TBD	52.694	TBD
Mariners	Angels	M.Pineda vs J.Pineiro	Mariners	50.86%	48.16%	TBD
HOU	FLA	Brett Myers vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	TBD	63.105	TBD
NYN	SF	Chris Capuano vs Tim Lincecum	SF	TBD	62.64	TBD
ATL	PHI	Tommy Hanson vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	58.793	TBD
TB	NYA	David Price vs A.J. Burnett	NYA	TBD	53.349	TBD
Twins	White Sox	B.Duensing vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	59.76%	52.61%	TBD

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July 8th Simulations

Latos Intolerable ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.23%	57.97%	LAN 1-0
Athletics	Rangers	G.Gonzalez vs C.Wilson	Rangers	60.24%	62.52%	TEX 8-5
Rays	Yankees	J.Hellickson vs F.Garcia	Yankees	58.93%	67.35%	Ppd.
Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	56.43%	60.30%	NYN 5-2
Astros	Marlins	J.Lyles vs J.Vazquez	Marlins	58.07%	56.83%	FLA 6-3
Blue Jays	Indians	J.Reyes vs M.Talbot	Indians	51.57%	50.53%	TOR 11-7
Tigers	Royals	R.Porcello vs K.Davies	Tigers	53.16%	57.55%	DET 6-4
DBacks	Cardinals	I.Kennedy vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	54.02%	63.04%	ARI 7-6
Braves	Phillies	B.Beachy vs R.Halladay	Phillies	62.76%	69.37%	PHI 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	56.43%	56.42%	MIL 8-7
Cubs	Pirates	R.Lopez vs J.McDonald	Pirates	56.24%	53.24%	PIT 7-4
Mariners	Angels	B.Beavan vs E.Santana	Angels	61.46%	58.53%	LAA 4-3
Twins	White Sox	N.Blackburn vs G.Floyd	White Sox	61.01%	57.68%	MIN 8-5
Orioles	Red Sox	Z.Britton vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	67.00%	59.84%	BOS 10-3
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs J.Lannan	Nationals	56.43%	50.35%	COL 3-2

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July 7th Simulations

Kershaw Hoping To Avoid Area 52 Losses ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	D.Gee vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.76%	64.96%	LAN 6-0
Reds	Brewers	H.Bailey vs C.Narveson	Brewers	52.04%	49.88%	TBD
Athletics	Rangers	R.Harden vs D.Holland	Rangers	55.65%	63.47%	TBD
Tigers	Royals	M.Scherzer vs D.Duffy	Tigers	55.06%	60.95%	TBD
DBacks	Cardinals	J.Saunders vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	57.36%	65.69%	TBD
Rockies	Braves	J.Nicasio vs T.Hudson	Braves	TBD	58.79%	ATL 6-3
BAL	BOS	Jake Arrieta vs Andrew Miller	BOS	TBD	58.809	TBD
SD	SF	Cory Luebke vs Barry Zito	SF	TBD	53.069	TBD
HOU	FLA	J.A. Happ vs Brad Hand	FLA	TBD	54.909	TBD
MIN	CHA	Carl Pavano vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	56.915	TBD
TOR	CLE	Carlos Villanueva vs Zach McAllister	TOR	TBD	52.34	TBD
SEA	LAA	Doug Fister vs Jered Weaver	LAA	TBD	58.55	TBD
CHN	WAS	Matt Garza vs Livan Hernandez	WAS	TBD	55.314	TBD
TB	NYA	Jeff Niemann vs Bartolo Colon	NYA	TBD	70.682	TBD

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July 6th Simulations

50 Ways To Lose Your Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	J.Niese vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	54.23%	50.97%	TBD
Rockies	Braves	A.Cook vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	64.85%	58.69%	TBD
Reds	Cardinals	B.Arroyo vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	54.85%	59.93%	TBD
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	54.23%	58.82%	TB 12-5
DBacks	Brewers	J.Collmenter vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	60.08%	57.43%	MIL 3-1
Orioles	Rangers	J.Guthrie vs A.Ogando	Rangers	63.83%	64.67%	TBD
Blue Jays	Red Sox	R.Romero vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	52.49%	53.17%	TBD
Phillies	Marlins	K.Kendrick vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	55.06%	58.89%	TBD
Padres	Giants	D.Moseley vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	60.71%	66.01%	TBD
Mariners	Athletics	J.Vargas vs G.Moscoso	Athletics	54.02%	50.56%	OAK 2-0
Cubs	Nationals	R.Wells vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	56.24%	54.23%	TBD
Astros	Pirates	B.Norris vs C.Morton	Pirates	53.16%	51.37%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	B.Chen vs E.Jackson	White Sox	58.59%	64.62%	KC 4-1
Yankees	Indians	P.Hughes vs J.Masterson	Indians	50.62%	53.98%	TBD
Tigers	Angels	B.Penny vs T.Chatwood	Angels	52.72%	50.52%	DET 5-4

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July 5th Simulations

Blogger Night! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Mets	Dodgers	M.Pelfrey vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	54.44%	55.30%	NYN 6-0
Astros	Pirates	W.Rodriguez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	53.81%	48.66%	PIT 5-1
Orioles	Rangers	M.Atkins vs M.Harrison	Rangers	61.90%	61.92%	TEX 4-2
Rays	Twins	J.Shields vs S.Baker	Rays	51.81%	47.46%	MIN 3-2
Cubs	Nationals	R.Ortiz vs R.Detwiler	Nationals	56.43%	56.42%	WAS 3-2
Phillies	Marlins	C.Hamels vs C.Volstad	Phillies	60.71%	66.46%	PHI 14-2
Tigers	Angels	J.Verlander vs D.Haren	Tigers	52.94%	52.35%	LAA 1-0
KC	CHA	Felipe Paulino vs Jake Peavy	CHA	TBD	56.98%	KC 5-3
CIN	STL	Edinson Volquez vs Jaime Garcia	STL	TBD	60.47%	STL 8-1
SEA	OAK	Felx Hernandez vs Trevor Cahill	OAK	TBD	51.59%	SEA 4-2
ARI	MIL	Zach Duke vs Randy Wolf	MIL	TBD	53.78%	ARI 7-3
NYA	CLE	C.C. Sabathia vs Carlos Carrasco	NYA	TBD	61.48%	NYA 9-2
COL	ATL	Jhoulys Chacin vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	51.06%	ATL 5-3
Padres	Giants	T.Stauffer vs M.Cain	Giants	60.24%	55.63%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Red Sox	B.Cecil vs J.Lester	Red Sox	67.21%	66.92%	BOS 3-2

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July 3rd Simulations

Interleague Buh-Bye ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Angels	C.Billingsley vs E.Santana	Angels	TBD	53.38%	LAA 3-1
BOS	HOU	Josh Beckett vs Jordan Lyles	BOS	TBD	65.086	TBD
PIT	WAS	Kevin Correia vs Jason Marquis	WAS	TBD	64.521	TBD
FLA	TEX	Javier Vazquez vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	76.006	TBD
MIL	MIN	Zach Greinke vs Nick Blackburn	MIN	TBD	50.285	TBD
SF	DET	Ryan Vogelsong vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	56.979	TBD
BAL	ATL	Zach Britton vs Brandon Beachy	BAL	TBD	50.603	TBD
ARI	OAK	Ian Kennedy vs Gio Gonzalez	OAK	TBD	58.057	TBD
NYA	NYN	Freddy Garcia vs R.A. Dickey	NYA	TBD	57.979	TBD
STL	TB	Kyle Lohse vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	TBD	54.907	TBD
PHI	TOR	Cliff Lee vs Jo-Jo Reyes	PHI	TBD	60.566	TBD
KC	COL	Luke Hochevar vs Jason Hammel	COL	TBD	68.708	TBD
CHA	CHN	Gavin Floyd vs Rodrigo Lopez	CHA	TBD	52.009	TBD
CLE	CIN	Mitch Talbot vs Mike Leake	CIN	TBD	64.237	TBD
Padres	Mariners	M.Latos vs E.Bedard	Mariners	TBD	59.34%	TBD

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Note: I am on vacation this weekend. Simulations were ran two days in advance. Next simulation will be up Monday night (for Tuesday's games).

July 2nd Simulations

Kershaw vs Weaver, This Time It Almost Counts ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Angels	C.Kershaw vs J.Weaver	Angels	55.06%	57.85%	LAA 7-1
NYA	NYN	Bartolo Colon vs Dillon Gee	NYA	TBD	55.155	TBD
BAL	ATL	Jake Arrieta vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	56.552	TBD
ARI	OAK	Joe Saunders vs Josh Outman	OAK	TBD	58.519	TBD
MIL	MIN	Chris Narveson vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	56.149	TBD
BOS	HOU	Andrew Miller vs J.A. Happ	BOS	TBD	53.998	TBD
CLE	CIN	Fausto Carmona vs Homer Bailey	CIN	TBD	61.863	TBD
PIT	WAS	James McDonald vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	63.172	TBD
PIT	WAS	Scott Olsen vs Livan Hernandez	WAS	TBD	68.622	TBD
SF	DET	Barry Zito vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	67.136	TBD
CHA	CHN	Phil Humber vs Matt Garza	CHN	TBD	52.367	TBD
SD	SEA	Cory Luebke vs Doug Fister	SEA	TBD	59.59	TBD
FLA	TEX	Brad Hand vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	70.943	TBD
PHI	TOR	Roy Halladay vs Carlos Villanueva	PHI	TBD	64.421	TBD
STL	TB	Kyle McClellan vs Jeff Niemann	TB	TBD	55.041	TBD
Royals	Rockies	K.Davies vs G.Reynolds	Rockies	TBD	66.12%	TBD

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