April 30th Simulations

The Streak Continues ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	56.08%	49.71%	SD 5-2
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	TBD	61.98%	PHI 2-1
Giants	Nationals	J.Sanchez vs J.Lannan	Giants	TBD	51.93%	SF 2-1
Blue Jays	Yankees	K.Drabek vs A.Burnett	Yankees	TBD	64.39%	NYA 5-4
Angels	Rays	J.Pineiro vs J.Shields	Rays	TBD	54.27%	TB 2-1
Pirates	Rockies	P.Maholm vs J.Hammel	Rockies	TBD	55.79%	COL 4-1
Rangers	Athletics	C.Lewis vs B.Anderson	Athletics	TBD	65.28%	TEX 11-2
Marlins	Reds	J.Johnson vs E.Volquez	Marlins	TBD	58.16%	CIN 4-3
Mariners	Red Sox	D.Fister vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	TBD	57.57%	SEA 2-0
Orioles	White Sox	C.Tillman vs P.Humber	White Sox	TBD	54.95%	BAL 6-2
Tigers	Indians	R.Porcello vs A.White	Tigers	TBD	52.59%	CLE 2-1
Cardinals	Braves	J.Westbrook vs B.Beachy	Braves	TBD	55.54%	STL 3-2
Twins	Royals	B.Duensing vs S.O'Sullivan	Twins	TBD	53.49%	KC 11-2
Brewers	Astros	R.Wolf vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	TBD	54.33%	HOU 2-1
Cubs	DBacks	M.Garza vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	TBD	54.17%	CHN 5-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.99%

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April 29th Simulations

Dodgers Hoping Padres Keep Sucking ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	C.Richard vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	54.34%	46.00%	TBD
Rangers	Athletics	C.Wilson vs T.Cahill	Athletics	51.69%	48.31%	TBD
Brewers	Astros	S.Marcum vs B.Myers	Astros	56.52%	51.51%	MIL 5-0
Cubs	DBacks	C.Zambrano vs A.Galarraga	Cubs	51.46%	53.46%	CHN 4-2
Twins	Royals	S.Baker vs B.Chen	Royals	50.74%	48.14%	KC 4-3
Mariners	Red Sox	J.Vargas vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	66.10%	57.30%	SEA 5-4
Pirates	Rockies	K.Correia vs J.Chacin	Rockies	64.79%	68.57%	PIT 3-0
Cardinals	Braves	C.Carpenter vs T.Hudson	Braves	51.92%	48.38%	STL 5-3
Tigers	Indians	M.Scherzer vs J.Gomez	Tigers	52.38%	56.40%	CLE 9-5
Angels	Rays	E.Santana vs D.Price	Rays	57.45%	54.22%	LAA 8-5
Giants	Nationals	T.Lincecum vs J.Marquis	Giants	61.24%	55.71%	WAS 3-0
Blue Jays	Yankees	R.Romero vs F.Garcia	Yankees	59.02%	61.20%	TOR 5-3
Mets	Phillies	M.Pelfrey vs V.Worley	Phillies	TBD	51.72%	PHI 10-3
Orioles	White Sox	J.Arrieta vs J.Danks	White Sox	59.84%	52.61%	BAL 10-4
Marlins	Reds	J.Vazquez vs T.Wood	Reds	58.85%	68.02%	FLA 7-6

Seasonal ROI: -1.03%

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April 28th Simulations

Dodger Ownership Rests In Peace ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rays	Twins	J.Hellickson vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.38%	54.02%	TB 15-3
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs A.Swarzak	Rays	52.38%	45.62%	TB 6-1
Blue Jays	Rangers	B.Morrow vs A.Ogando	Rangers	60.00%	59.43%	TOR 5-2
Cardinals	Astros	K.McClellan vs N.Figueroa	Cardinals	57.26%	58.88%	STL 11-7
Royals	Indians	K.Davies vs F.Carmona	Indians	60.78%	55.58%	CLE 8-2
White Sox	Yankees	E.Jackson vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	66.10%	68.46%	NYA 12-3
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Lester vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	63.77%	60.71%	BOS 6-2
Giants	Pirates	R.Vogelsong vs J.Karstens	Pirates	51.92%	51.05%	SF 5-2
Mariners	Tigers	M.Pineda vs B.Penny	Tigers	53.27%	54.50%	SEA 7-2
Cubs	DBacks	R.Dempster vs B.Enright	Cubs	52.15%	47.94%	ARI 11-2
Mets	Nationals	C.Capuano vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	51.46%	58.22%	WAS 4-3

Seasonal ROI: -1.06%

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April 27th Simulations

Pitching Wins Championships, Shitty Defense Loses Games ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Billingsley vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	53.92%	57.76%	LAN 5-4
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Reyes vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.24%	63.01%	TEX 7-6
Mets	Nationals	R.Dickey vs T.Gorzelanny	Nationals	51.92%	48.29%	NYN 6-3
Mariners	Tigers	E.Bedard vs J.Verlander	Tigers	66.10%	63.60%	SEA 10-1
Rays	Twins	J.Niemann vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.90%	59.46%	TB 8-2
Braves	Padres	T.Hanson vs M.Latos	Braves	50.98%	48.79%	ATL 7-0
Cardinals	Astros	K.Lohse vs J.Happ	Cardinals	56.71%	64.05%	STL 6-5
Athletics	Angels	T.Ross vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.64%	OAK 2-1
Reds	Brewers	S.LeCure vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.51%	57.02%	CIN 7-6
Red Sox	Orioles	J.Beckett vs J.Guthrie	Red Sox	59.68%	50.95%	BAL 5-4
Giants	Pirates	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Giants	54.75%	54.04%	PIT 2-0
Rockies	Cubs	J.Chacin vs C.Coleman	Rockies	57.45%	56.62%	Ppd.
White Sox	Yankees	M.Buehrle vs B.Colon	Yankees	59.68%	59.40%	NYA 3-1
Phillies	DBacks	C.Hamels vs J.Saunders	Phillies	60.16%	59.23%	PHI 8-4
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs J.Tomlin	Indians	57.26%	55.32%	CLE 7-2

Seasonal ROI: -2.10%

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April 26th Simulations

Hook, Line and Sinker Ball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	C.Kershaw vs C.Volstad	Dodgers	57.08%	51.13%	FLA 4-2
Rockies	Cubs	J.delaRosa vs J.Russell	Rockies	57.63%	52.85%	COL 4-3
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs A.Harang	Braves	52.38%	40.41%	ATL 8-2
Rays	Twins	W.Davis vs F.Liriano	Twins	56.71%	56.84%	Ppd.
Royals	Indians	L.Hochevar vs J.Masterson	Indians	59.84%	63.99%	CLE 9-4
Phillies	DBacks	R.Oswalt vs D.Hudson	Phillies	54.55%	51.95%	ARI 7-5
Mets	Nationals	C.Young vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	53.70%	56.06%	NYN 6-4
Athletics	Angels	B.McCarthy vs T.Chatwood	Athletics	53.92%	57.70%	LAA 8-3
White Sox	Yankees	G.Floyd vs I.Nova	Yankees	55.56%	62.48%	CHA 3-2
Mariners	Tigers	F.Hernandez vs P.Coke	Mariners	53.05%	51.86%	SEA 7-3
Cardinals	Astros	J.Garcia vs B.Norris	Cardinals	56.33%	61.14%	HOU 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	C.Buchholz vs Z.Britton	Orioles	55.75%	42.48%	BAL 4-1
Giants	Pirates	M.Cain vs C.Morton	Giants	57.08%	57.46%	SF 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs M.Estrada	Brewers	52.83%	44.46%	MIL 3-2
Blue Jays	Rangers	J.Litsch vs M.Harrison	Rangers	62.41%	60.01%	TOR 10-3

Seasonal ROI: -0.08%

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April 25th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Reel In For Real Marlins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Marlins	J.Garland vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	57.63%	61.42%	FLA 5-4
White Sox	Yankees	P.Humber vs I.Nova	Yankees	65.03%	67.87%	CHA 2-0
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs D.Moseley	Braves	55.16%	50.82%	SD 5-3
Blue Jays	Rangers	K.Drabek vs C.Lewis	Rangers	59.02%	58.42%	TOR 6-4
Athletics	Angels	G.Gonzalez vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.35%	57.45%	LAA 5-0
Reds	Brewers	B.Arroyo vs C.Narveson	Brewers	54.55%	51.14%	CIN 9-5
Phillies	DBacks	C.Lee vs I.Kennedy	Phillies	59.68%	58.31%	ARI 4-0
Rockies	Cubs	E.Rogers vs M.Garza	Cubs	55.56%	57.37%	COL 5-3
Nationals	Pirates	J.Lannan vs P.Maholm	Pirates	53.70%	54.02%	PIT 4-2

Below are the results from the simulation of Monday's Dodgers/Marlins game. Keep in mind it is nearly impossible to correctly project out the exact lineups this far out in advance, but they should hopefully be pretty close.

Dodgers Hitting Results
Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Jamey Carroll	4.4	1.25	0.826	0.301	0.046	0.076	0.289	0.261	0.896	0.327	0.342
Casey Blake	4.28	1.169	0.695	0.314	0.02	0.139	0.418	0.248	1.054	0.331	0.334
Andre Ethier	4.157	1.221	0.715	0.313	0.012	0.181	0.527	0.365	0.94	0.368	0.343
Matt Kemp	4.094	1.19	0.743	0.246	0.018	0.183	0.586	0.282	1.078	0.357	0.356
Juan Uribe	4.063	1.062	0.62	0.28	0.026	0.135	0.514	0.217	0.885	0.319	0.305
James Loney	3.924	1.13	0.691	0.304	0.016	0.119	0.473	0.287	0.727	0.347	0.329
Jerry Sands	3.832	0.985	0.662	0.19	0.007	0.127	0.439	0.218	0.973	0.308	0.314
Rod Barajas	3.653	0.815	0.514	0.184	0.006	0.11	0.364	0.299	1.059	0.286	0.284
Pitchers Spot	3.72	0.46	0.366	0.077	0.003	0.014	0.13	0.118	1.842	0.141	0.239

Dodgers Pitching Results
Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jon Garland	5.65	3.943	2.173	6.807	0.647	93.501	4.447
Johnathan Broxton	0.393	0.468	0.154	0.358	0.035	6.467	3.156
Matt Guerrier	0.434	0.325	0.122	0.489	0.036	6.878	3.635
Mike MacDougal	0.714	0.544	0.314	0.798	0.063	11.885	4.146
Blake Hawksworth	0.402	0.298	0.183	0.48	0.057	6.811	4.925
Vicente Padilla	0.691	0.606	0.248	0.783	0.084	11.388	4.107
Kenley Jansen	0.334	0.403	0.161	0.324	0.04	5.717	3.803
Lance Cormier	0.018	0.011	0.01	0.022	0.002	0.314	5.1

Seasonal ROI: -0.01%

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April 24th Simulations

Dodgers Dogs In Rubber Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	H.Kuroda vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	54.55%	59.94%	LAN 7-3
White Sox	Tigers	J.Danks vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	54.55%	56.79%	DET 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	U.Jimenez vs J.Johnson	Marlins	57.63%	55.88%	FLA 6-3
DBacks	Mets	A.Galarraga vs J.Niese	Mets	57.98%	63.88%	NYN 8-4
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lackey vs M.Palmer	Red Sox	57.26%	58.82%	BOS 7-0
Nationals	Pirates	J.Marquis vs K.Correia	Pirates	55.56%	52.88%	WAS 6-3
Royals	Rangers	B.Chen vs C.Wilson	Rangers	67.21%	72.70%	TEX 8-7
Reds	Cardinals	S.LeCure vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	52.61%	53.04%	STL 3-0
Astros	Brewers	W.Rodriguez vs R.Wolf	Brewers	59.51%	51.21%	MIL 4-1
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Shields vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	56.52%	58.49%	TB 2-0
Phillies	Padres	R.Halladay vs W.LeBlanc	Phillies	65.28%	56.42%	PHI 3-1
Indians	Twins	C.Carrasco vs C.Pavano	Twins	54.55%	55.15%	MIN 4-3
Athletics	Mariners	B.Anderson vs D.Fister	Athletics	55.56%	53.99%	OAK 5-2
Braves	Giants	B.Beachy vs J.Sanchez	Giants	55.95%	65.58%	ATL 9-6
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs C.Tillman	Yankees	54.34%	50.70%	NYA 6-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 23rd Simulations

Lilly Longs For Lull In Longball ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	T.Lilly vs R.Dempster	Cubs	54.55%	60.04%	CHN 10-8
Rays	Blue Jays	D.Price vs B.Morrow	Rays	53.49%	51.76%	TB 6-4
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen	Yankees	63.24%	63.57%	NYA 15-3
Phillies	Padres	J.Blanton vs T.Stauffer	Padres	50.00%	55.15%	PHI 4-2
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs B.Duensing	Twins	54.95%	57.60%	MIN 10-3
Red Sox	Angels	D.Matsuzaka vs E.Santana	Angels	52.15%	49.58%	LAA 5-0
Braves	Giants	T.Hudson vs T.Lincecum	Giants	60.00%	64.95%	ATL 5-2
Royals	Rangers	K.Davies vs A.Ogando	Rangers	66.44%	62.20%	TEX 3-1
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs J.Vazquez	Rockies	50.74%	57.72%	COL 3-1
White Sox	Tigers	E.Jackson vs B.Penny	White Sox	51.46	48.86%	DET 9-0
Athletics	Mariners	T.Cahill vs J.Vargas	Athletics	53.27%	48.88%	OAK 9-1
DBacks	Mets	B.Enright vs D.Gee	Mets	55.16%	59.75%	NYN 6-4
Astros	Brewers	B.Myers vs S.Marcum	Brewers	61.24%	58.17%	HOU 9-6
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	53.27%	47.71%	PIT 7-2
Reds	Cardinals	T.Wood vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.84%	53.94%	CIN 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 0.00%

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April 22nd Simulations

Dodgers Blow Into Chicago ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Cubs	C.Billingsley vs C.Coleman	Dodgers	50.74%	50.91%	LAN 13-2
Braves	Giants	T.Hanson vs M.Bumgarner	Braves	51.22%	46.27%	ATL 4-1
Astros	Brewers	N.Figueroa vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	66.22%	60.25%	MIL 14-7
Rockies	Marlins	J.Chacin vs A.Sanchez	Rockies	51.46%	54.33%	FLA 4-1
Reds	Cardinals	E.Volquez vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	56.71%	52.46%	STL 4-2
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs J.Karstens	Pirates	52.38%	47.15%	Ppd.
Diamondbacks	Mets	J.Saunders vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	55.95%	60.07%	NYN 4-1
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lester vs D.Haren	Red Sox	51.69%	52.56%	BOS 4-3
White Sox	Tigers	M.Buehrle vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.63%	63.43%	DET 9-3
Athletics	Mariners	T.Ross vs M.Pineda	Mariners	55.95%	53.04%	SEA 4-0
Indians	Twins	F.Carmona vs B.Duensing	Twins	53.27%	57.51%	Ppd.
Yankees	Orioles	C.Sabathia vs B.Bergesen	Yankees	63.24%	62.48%	Ppd.
Phillies	Padres	C.Hamels vs C.Richard	Phillies	53.70%	49.62%	PHI 2-0
Royals	Rangers	J.Francis vs D.Holland	Rangers	61.24%	61.80%	TEX 11-6
Rays	Blue Jays	J.Hellickson vs J.Reyes	Rays	51.92%	49.58%	TOR 6-4

Seasonal ROI: 0.01%

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April 21st Simulations

This Bud's For Selig ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.33%	58.87%	LAN 5-3
Twins	Orioles	S.Baker vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	56.52%	63.85%	MIN 3-1
Nationals	Cardinals	T.Gorzelanny vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	61.54%	63.60%	STL 5-0
Diamondbacks	Reds	D.Hudson vs M.Leake	Reds	55.16%	58.29%	CIN 7-4
Athletics	Mariners	B.McCarthy vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	58.16%	55.17%	SEA 1-0
Red Sox	Angels	J.Beckett vs T.Chatwood	Red Sox	61.09%	60.21%	BOS 4-2
Indians	Royals	J.Tomlin vs S.O'Sullivan	Indians	51.69%	49.69%	KC 3-2
Pirates	Marlins	J.McDonald vs C.Volstad	Marlins	55.56%	53.35%	FLA 9-5
Phillies	Padres	R.Oswalt vs M.Latos	Phillies	51.98%	48.66%	PHI 3-0
White Sox	Rays	G.Floyd vs J.Niemann	White Sox	50.74%	54.47%	CHA 9-2
Astros	Mets	J.Happ vs C.Capuano	Mets	55.56%	60.17%	NYN 9-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.91%

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April 20th Simulations

Battle Of The Innings Eaters ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	Derek Lowe vs Jon Garland	Braves	57.26%	56.57%	LAN 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Chris Narveson vs Cliff Lee	Phillies	66.67%	66.71%	PHI 4-3
Nationals	Cardinals	Jordan Zimmerman vs Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	62.26%	66.48%	STL 5-3
Red Sox	Athletics	Clay Buchholz vs Gio Gonzalez	Athletics	52.38%	60.38%	BOS 5-3
Astros	Mets	Bud Norris vs R.A. Dickey	Mets	59.18%	62.14%	HOU 4-3
Pirates	Marlins	Charlie Morton vs Ricky Nolasco	Marlins	60.78%	59.11%	FLA 6-0
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs Matt Garza	Cubs	57.81%	61.95%	CHN 2-1
Yankees	Blue Jays	Bartolo Colon vs Brett Cecil	Yankees	53.49%	56.40%	NYA 6-2
Giants	Rockies	Matt Cain vs Jorge de la Rosa	Rockies	54.55%	55.55%	COL 10-2
Indians	Royals	Justin Masterson vs Luke Hochevar	Indians	52.38%	55.42%	CLE 7-5
White Sox	Rays	Phil Humber vs Wade Davis	Rays	55.56%	55.15%	TB 4-1
Angels	Rangers	Jered Weaver vs Matt Harrison	Rangers	51.22%	52.60%	LAA 4-1
Diamondbacks	Reds	Ian Kennedy vs Bronson Arroyo	Reds	60.00%	60.78%	ARI 3-1
Twins	Orioles	Nick Blackburn vs Zach Britton	Orioles	57.45%	62.33%	BAL 5-4
Tigers	Mariners	Rick Porcello vs Erik Bedard	Tigers	50.00%	50.38%	DET 3-2
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.35%	54.81%	WAS 8-6
Padres	Cubs	Aaron Harang vs James Russell	Padres	52.61%	49.45%	SD 5-4

Seasonal ROI: 0.68%

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April 19th Simulations

Dodgers Undefeated With Jerry Sands ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	B.Beachy vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	52.61%	55.62%	ATL 10-1
Indians	Royals	Jeanmar Gomez vs Bruce Chen	Royals	53.27%	52.54%	KC 5-4
Yankees	Blue Jays	A.J. Burnett vs Kyle Drabek	Yankees	50.98%	54.11%	TOR 6-5
Diamondbacks	Reds	Armando Galarraga vs Sam LeCure	Reds	60.00%	65.87%	ARI 5-4
Red Sox	Athletics	John Lackey vs Brett Anderson	Athletics	53.05%	62.65%	OAK 5-0
Tigers	Mariners	Phil Coke vs Doug Fister	Tigers	51.69%	45.32%	SEA 13-3
Nationals	Cardinals	John Lannan vs Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	59.68%	53.82%	Ppd.
Padres	Cubs	Dustin Moseley vs James Russell	Cubs	53.05%	55.02%	Ppd.
Giants	Rockies	Jonathan Sanchez vs Ubaldo Jimenez	Rockies	59.68%	54.06%	SF 6-3
Twins	Orioles	Carl Pavano vs Jake Arrieta	Orioles	50.74%	60.91%	BAL 11-0
Astros	Mets	Wandy Rodriguez vs John Niese	Mets	55.56%	55.68%	HOU 6-1
Brewers	Phillies	Randy Wolf vs Roy Halladay	Phillies	67.21%	68.07%	MIL 9-0
Pirates	Marlins	Paul Maholm vs Josh Johnson	Marlins	65.16%	61.96%	FLA 6-0
Angels	Rangers	Matt Palmer vs Colby Lewis	Rangers	63.37%	64.88%	LAA 15-4
White Sox	Rays	John Danks vs James Shields	White Sox	51.22%	49.95%	TB 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.23%

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Jerry Sands Major League Debut Game

April 18th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Dodgers	T.Hudson vs T.Lilly	Braves	55.56%	50.50%	LAN 4-2
Skinny: Expect a lot of ugly effectiveness from Tim Hudson who pounds the strike zone and gets a ton of ground balls. The Dodgers will need some BABIP luck to beat Hudson. The Braves meanwhile will be looking to blast one of the many fly balls that Ted Lilly serves up into the outfield bleachers.
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs E.Rogers	Giants	55.75%	49.60%	SF 8-1
Padres	Cubs	T.Stauffer vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	58.33%	52.50%	CHN 1-0
Angels	Rangers	E.Santana vs C.Wilson	Rangers	59.02%	65.02%	TEX 7-1

Seasonal ROI: 0.80%

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Try Now We Can Only Lose

April 17th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs C.Billingsley	Cardinals	55.16%	50.09%	LAN 2-1

Interesting simulation tidbits:
Most HRs in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Most triples in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Carroll
Most doubles in game: STL:Rasmus, LAN:Blake
Most hits in game: STL:Pujols, LAN:Ethier
Strikeouts/Walks C.Carpenter: 5.3/1.5
Strikeouts/Walks C.Billingsley: 6.1/1.9


Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

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Clayton And Chad, The Rest Are Bad!

April 16th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	K.McClellan vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	58.85%	61.55%	STL 9-2

Seasonal ROI: Less Than 0%

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Dodgers Pitching Looking For A Refund

April 15th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	K.Lohse vs J.Garland	Dodgers	53.05%	51.06%	STL 11-2
Giants	Diamondbacks	M.Cain vs D.Hudson	Giants	53.05%	48.29%	SF 5-2
Padres	Astros	A.Harang vs J.Happ	Astros	51.92%	50.53%	SD 4-2
Cubs	Rockies	M.Garza vs J.Chacin	Rockies	59.18%	59.86%	COL 5-0
Angels	White Sox	J.Weaver vs P.Humber	Angels	55.36%	58.16%	LAA 4-3
Blue Jays	Red Sox	B.Cecil vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	63.90%	55.14%	TOR 7-6

Seasonal ROI: Negative infinity

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Cherry Garcia or Kreamy Kuroda

April 14th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Dodgers	J.Garcia vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	55.16%	45.35%	STL 9-5
Skinny: Jaime Garcia is one of the pitchers that my simulator loves much more than the betting public obviously does. Let's see who is right!
Results: Well, the simulator called this result right. Of course one game sample sizes mean squat. But I'll take it.

Seasonal ROI: -1.28%

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April 13, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 13th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez	Giants	58.85%	62.46%	SF 4-3
Skinny: Simulator sees some value in these odds for the Giants. Will come down to which pitcher can keep their fly balls in the park better.
Results: Ted Lilly couldn't keep his fly balls in the park and Giants bullpen was lights out.

Seasonal ROI: 6.34%

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April 12th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation

April 12th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum	Giants	62.55%	63.76%	SF 5-4
Skinny: Pretty good agreement between Vegas and Sim. Lincecum outclasses Billingsley and along with HFA is the difference maker.
Results: Game went according to the book as 9th most likely score hits.
Phillies	Nationals	J.Blanton vs L.Hernandez	Phillies	54.13%	48.17%	WAS 7-4
Skinny: Even with R.Zimmerman out the Nationals have an even shot of winning this home game against Phillies worst starter.
Results: Big win for the simulator here as it nails this one.
Indians	Angels	F.Carmona vs D.Haren	Angels	62.12%	59.47%	LAA 2-0
Skinny: Decent pitching matchup with edge to Angels. Simulator thinks Angels are over bet a little.
Results: Haren brings the Indians back down to reality.
Cubs	Astros	J.Russell vs B.Myers	Astros	53.49%	54.43%	HOU 11-2
Skinny: Cubs put a replacement level pitcher out there on the road against one of the Astros best pitchers. Home field advantage is the difference between being favored or a dog. Pennies on the Astros.
Results: Astros eat up replacement level pitcher.
Reds	Padres	S.LeCure vs C.Richard	Padres	53.05%	54.66%	CIN 8-2
Skinny: Should be a pretty close, low scoring game (7 runs?). Padres favored by their HFA margin. Pennies on the Padres.
Results: Well pitched low scoring game just like the sim said, until the Padres bullpen bombs in extra frames.
Athletics	White Sox	T.Cahill vs E.Jackson	White Sox	54.55%	50.12%	CHA 6-5
Skinny: Will the clock strike midnight on Edwin Jackson today? Simulator says to bet on it, as it's not ready to jump completely on his bandwagon yet.
Results: Athletics were able to get to Edwin Jackson but the bullpen couldn't hold on to a slim lead.
Rays	Red Sox	D.Price vs J.Lester	Red Sox	62.96%	57.44%	TB 3-2
Skinny: The starting pitching matchup is pretty even. HFA and offense give the Red Sox a decent sized edge, but the Rays defense cuts into that edge a little. Too much Red Sox love in the ML.
Results: Nice payout for a David Price pitched game, even if it was on the road in Boston against J.Lester.
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs B.Penny	Rangers	55.95%	56.91%	DET 5-4
Skinny: A very favorable pitching matchup for the Rangers. A pretty fair line. Pennies on the Rangers.
Results: Even game. Texas was let down by their bullpen and losing Josh Hamilton to injury early in the game didn't help matters.
Marlins	Braves	C.Volstad vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	60.69%	TBD
Skinny: A likely win for the Braves but slightly over bet. Take the underdog and hope for the best.
Results: C.Volstad dug himself a hole early and Tommy Hanson was just too tough.
Royals	Twins	J.Francis vs B.Duensing	Twins	58.33%	61.60%	MIN 4-3
Skinny: Never fun to take a pitcher like Duensing at -140 (ML) but in this case you pretty much have to. Prepare to sweat it out.
Results: Twins fans definitely had to sweat this one out.
Orioles	Yankees	C.Tillman vs A.Burnett	Yankees	62.96%	59.35%	Rained out.
Skinny: You would've made a lot of money betting the Orioles every game so far. Let's see if the trend continues against the Yankees. Sim says to ride the horse again.
Results:
Rockies	Mets	E.Rogers vs J.Niese	Mets	52.38%	55.76%	Rained out.
Skinny: A good value play on the Mets here. Just be prepared to sweat this one out as it should be a close game.
Results:
Brewers	Pirates	S.Marcum vs K.Correia	Brewers	53.27%	45.89%	TBD
Skinny: Simulator showing some love for the 5-5 Pirates here. I would probably split the difference here making a moderate wager on Pirates.
Results: Rained out.
Cardinals	Diamondbacks	C.Carpenter vs A.Galarraga	Cardinals	57.63%	60.99%	ARI 13-8
Skinny: Big pitching mismatch here. Only big worry is HFA for the Diamondbacks. Sim still says to make a solid wager here on the Cardinals.
Results: Definitely did not expect to see the Diamondbacks shell Carpenter.

Seasonal ROI: 0.98%

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The table of likely game scores is here.

April 11th, Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

April 11th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	51.92%	51.33%	LAN 6-1
Skinny: Very good agreement on the likely outcome of this game (a toss up). Kershaw is obviously the better pitcher, but the Giants even things out with the slightly better offense and the home field advantage.
Results: Nicely done Mr. Kershaw. The difference in class between the two starting pitchers definitely showed tonight.
Rangers	Tigers	A.Ogando vs J.Verlander	Tigers	56.52%	61.38%	DET 2-0
Skinny: The Rangers are definitely a hot team right now and the betting public seems to be buying into this as their new true talent baseline. The simulator isn't drinking the kool-aid yet and puts its money on Verlander, the obvious superior starting pitcher.
Results: Ogando matched Verlander pitch for pitch. Another sample in Ogando's sample size will help predicting his outcomes going forward. A loss for the simulator.
Indians	Angels	M.Talbot vs T.Chatwood	Angels	56.52%	51.41%	CLE 4-0
Skinny: The Angels leadoff man and regular SS is on the DL and they are putting a replacement level pitcher on the mound. The Indians aren't as good as the Mariners made them look this weekend but are probably a good bet here given the circumstances.
Results: This one was pretty easy to call. Minor league pitcher who saw his peripherals drop as he moved up the minor league chain. Only surprise is that the Angels got blanked, but those things happen.
Reds	Padres	E.Volquez vs M.Latos	Padres	52.61%	56.63%	CIN 3-2
Skinny: The Edinson Volquez HR/K/BB machine rolls into San Diego where the Padres Mat Latos will be making his first start of the season. Taking the Padres here, Latos is too good.
Results: The good (but not great) Volquez showed up and Mat Latos was generous with the long ball. Ramon Hernandez killed the Padres with his throwing arm tonight. Opportunities were there, tough loss.
Blue Jays	Mariners	J.Litsch vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	62.96%	63.75%	SEA 8-7
Skinny: As bad as the Mariners offense is, one does a double-take when seeing the Mariners as such large favorites. The first thing that comes to my mind is the standard operation procedure for how the Mariners will likely lose this game. Hmmmm, 1-1 tie - Felix gets pulled late in the game and Mariners lose 2-1 in 10 innings. That sounds about right! :) In all seriousness, simulator says put a penny or two on the Mariners.
Skinny: In what was probably a game result in the 0.001th percentile of likely outcomes the Mariners accepted a gift from the Toronto bullpen.
Athletics	White Sox	D.Braden vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	54.55%	50.93%	OAK 2-1
Skinny: Lots of ground balls and good infield defense is what makes Dallas Braden so successful and it should be good enough to make this game a toss-up. Given those odds, simulator throws a couple pennies towards the Athletics.
Results: Great pitching duel. Buehrle only gave up 2 hits on 19 batted balls in play. Oakland's bullpen was the difference maker. Simulator pockets a few pennies.
Rockies	Mets	J.Hammel vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	52.83%	48.97%	COL 7-6
Skinny: With a bad first start Jason Hammel's true talent (back to back 3.70 FIPs in Colorado) level slips through the cracks here. A toss-up game, but given the odds you have to take the Rockies.
Results: Hammel slightly outpitched Pelfrey and Tulowitzki's bomb came at a good time. A win for the simulator.

Seasonal ROI: 1.01%

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April 10th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 10th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	J.Ely vs A.Harang	Padres	54.34%	56.71%	SD 7-2

Seasonal ROI: 2.58%

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April 9th, Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 9th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	H.Kuroda vs D.Moseley	Dodgers	53.05%	51.34%	LAN 4-0
Nationals	Mets	T.Gorzelanny vs C.Capuano	Mets	56.33%	47.34%	NYN 8-4

Seasonal ROI: 6.44%

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Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 8th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	T.Lilly vs C.Richard	Padres	51.22%	55.88%	LAN 4-2
Rays	Angels	K.Drabek vs E.Santana	Angels	54.95%	57.20%	TOR 3-2

Seasonal ROI: 17.83%

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April 7th Simulations

April 7th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Reds	B.Myers vs S.LeCure	Reds	58.33%	58.15%	HOU 3-2
Red Sox	Indians	J.Lester vs F.Carmona	Red Sox	64.03%	58.77%	CLE 1-0
Braves	Brewers	T.Hanson vs S.Marcum	Braves	53.27%	54.76%	MIL 4-2
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs C.Tillman	Orioles	56.52%	56.73%	BAL 9-5
Rays	White Sox	D.Price vs E.Jackson	White Sox	56.52%	49.88%	CHA 5-1
Rockies	Pirates	E.Rogers vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.15%	50.96%	COL 7-1
Twins	Yankees	F.Liriano vs A.Burnett	Yankees	59.02%	55.35%	NYA 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	J.Lannan vs J.Johnson	Marlins	64.29%	58.82%	WAS 5-3
Mets	Phillies	J.Niese vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.10%	62.78%	PHI 11-0
Athletics	Blue Jays	T.Cahill vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	54.55%	49.83%	OAK 2-1

Seasonal ROI: 17.03%

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April 6th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 6th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.92%	55.30%	COL 7-5
Angels	Rays	D.Haren vs J.Hellickson	Angels	51.46%	53.55%	LAA 5-1

Seasonal ROI: 28.84%

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April 5th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 5th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Chacin	Rockies	50.00%	51.71%	COL 3-0
Angels	Rays	J.Weaver vs J.Niemann	Angels	50.50%	53.55%	LAA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 32.68%

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April 4th Baseball Simulations

April 4th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Orioles	R.Porcello vs J.Arrieta	Orioles	55.16%	57.00%	BAL 5-1
Braves	Brewers	B.Beachy vs C.Narveson	Brewers	50.00%	53.21%	ATL 2-1
Twins	Yankees	S.Baker vs I.Nova	Yankees	59.35%	59.21%	NYA 4-3
Mariners	Rangers	E.Bedard vs D.Holland	Rangers	60.63%	58.91%	TEX 6-4
Pirates	Cardinals	C.Morton vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	59.84%	60.58%	PIT 4-3

Seasonal ROI: 33.39%

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April 3rd, Giants vs Dodgers Simulation

April 3rd Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	57.45%	57.50%	LAN 7-5
Skinny: Dodgers advantage in this game is mostly due to the starting pitching matchup. Zito has the tendancy to walk more batters and give up more HRs than Kuroda.

Seasonal ROI: 23.54%

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April 2nd Simulations - Sweep Time?

April 2nd Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs T.Lilly	Giants	50.00%	51.14%	SF 10-0

Seasonal ROI: -3.80%

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