Post Trade Mortem

August 1st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs M.Cain	Giants	51.92%	48.95%	SF 2-0

Current ROI: 3.35%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/31	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22
1	Padres	45.00%	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%
2	Giants	38.84%	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%
3	Dodgers	12.80%	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%
4	Rockies	3.35%	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%

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Playoff Hopes Dimming

July 31st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs B.Zito	Giants	52.38%	50.73%	SF 2-1

Current ROI: 3.25%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/31	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21
1	Padres	49.89%	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%
2	Giants	32.21%	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%
3	Dodgers	15.26%	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%
4	Rockies	2.64%	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%

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Beating LA!

July 30th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum	Giants	63.90%	67.94%	SF 6-5
Pirates	Cardinals	J.Karstens vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	75.00%	75.18%	STL 1-0
Cubs	Rockies	R.Dempster vs J.Francis	Rockies	53.70%	60.98%	COL 17-2
Marlins	Padres	C.Volstad vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	55.56%	53.56%	FLA 4-2
Phillies	Nationals	R.Oswalt vs C.Stammen	Phillies	62.55%	51.26%	WAS 8-1
DBacks	Mets	I.Kennedy vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	58.16%	59.17%	ARI 9-6
Braves	Reds	K.Medlen vs J.Cueto	Reds	57.08%	53.92%	ATL 6-4
Brewers	Astros	M.Parra vs J.Happ	Brewers	51.92%	52.24%	HOU 5-0
Indians	Blue Jays	J.Masterson vs S.Marcum	Blue Jays	63.50%	61.65%	TOR 8-1
Tigers	Red Sox	A.Galarraga vs J.Lester	Red Sox	71.01%	71.35%	DET 6-5
Yankees	Rays	P.Hughes vs W.Davis	Yankees	51.46%	56.04%	TB 3-2
Mariners	Twins	D.Fister vs S.Baker	Twins	62.96%	61.53%	MIN 5-3
Orioles	Royals	J.Arrieta vs S.O'Sullivan	Royals	55.75%	55.17%	KC 7-5
A's	White Sox	B.Anderson vs D.Hudson	A's	50.74%	53.29%	CHA 6-1
Rangers	Angels	T.Hunter vs E.Santana	Angels	52.38%	54.62%	LAA 9-7

Current ROI: 2.76%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/30	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20
1	Padres	54.38%	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%
2	Giants	26.98%	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%
3	Dodgers	16.69%	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%
4	Rockies	1.95%	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%

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Dodgers Make Small Deal Out Of Loss

July 29th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	V.Padilla vs C.Richard	Padres	56.90%	58.45%	SD 3-2

Current ROI: 2.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/29	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19
1	Padres	47.70%	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%
2	Giants	31.89%	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%
3	Dodgers	18.76%	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%
4	Rockies	1.65%	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%

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Dodgers Full Of Bull-Pen

July 28th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	H.Kuroda vs C.Richard	Padres	51.92%	52.54%	SD 6-1

Current ROI: 3.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/28	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18
1	Padres	43.71%	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%
2	Giants	29.28%	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%
3	Dodgers	24.39%	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%
4	Rockies	2.62%	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%

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Dodgers Hope To Wake Padres Up From Dream Season

July 27th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Padres	C.Billingsley vs J.Garland	Padres	52.61%	46.77%	LAN 2-0
DBacks	Phillies	R.Lopez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	68.75%	70.89%	PHI 9-5
Cardinals	Mets	J.Garcia vs J.Niese	Cardinals	57.98%	51.32%	NYN 8-2
Cubs	Astros	T.Lilly vs B.Myers	Cubs	50.98%	44.48%	HOU 6-1
Reds	Brewers	E.Volquez vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	59.18%	68.62%	CIN 12-4
Pirates	Rockies	Z.Duke vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	67.32%	67.91%	PIT 4-2
Marlins	Giants	J.Johnson vs M.Cain	Marlins	52.15%	52.83%	SF 6-4
Yankees	Indians	C.Sabathia vs C.Carasco	Yankees	58.94%	64.83%	CLE 4-1
Orioles	Blue Jays	K.Millwood vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	67.32%	69.18%	TOR 8-2
Tigers	Rays	J.Verlander vs J.Shields	Rays	55.95%	53.24%	TB 3-2
A's	Rangers	G.Gonzalez vs C.Lee	Rangers	70.41%	64.79%	TEX 3-1
Twins	Royals	C.Pavano vs B.Chen	Twins	58.51%	51.90%	MIN 11-2
Mariners	White Sox	R.Rowland vs G.Floyd	White Sox	69.33%	74.71%	CHA 11-0
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lackey vs J.Weaver	Angels	59.51%	52.65%	BOS 4-2

Current ROI: 3.03%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/27	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	49.82%	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	25.34%	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	21.18%	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	3.66%	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Big Upcoming Series in San Diego

July 26th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Phillies	J.Hammel vs J.Blanton	Phillies	53.49%	50.35%	PHI 5-4
Marlins	Giants	R.Nolasco vs B.Zito	Giants	56.33%	55.90%	FLA 4-3

Current ROI: 2.92%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/26	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	47.34%	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	28.79%	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	19.73%	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	4.14%	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Bullpen Doesn't Blow It

July 25th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Mets	Dodgers	R.Dickey vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.64%	60.96%	LAN 1-0

Current ROI: 2.94%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/25	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	46.16%	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	28.29%	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	19.65%	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	5.90%	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Losing Ground In Playoff Race

July 24th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Mets	Dodgers	M.Pelfrey vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	54.55%	48.45%	LAN 3-2

Current ROI: 3.09%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/24	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	45.01%	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	27.05%	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	19.72%	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	8.22%	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Second Verse, Same As The First

July 23rd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Mets	Dodgers	J.Santana vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	53.49%	53.99%	NYN 6-1
Cardinals	Cubs	J.Suppan vs R.Wells	Cubs	60.47%	61.26%	CHN 5-0
Padres	Pirates	K.Correia vs P.Maholm	Padres	52.38%	48.32%	SD 5-3
Rockies	Phillies	A.Cook vs R.Halladay	Phillies	66.89%	66.46%	PHI 6-0
Braves	Marlins	D.Lowe vs A.Sanabia	Braves	50.74%	53.48%	FLA 7-6
Reds	Astros	T.Wood vs B.Norris	Reds	58.85%	45.78%	CIN 6-4
Nationals	Brewers	C.Stammen vs C.Narveson	Brewers	57.45%	56.61%	MIL 7-5
Giants	DBacks	J.Sanchez vs E.Jackson	Giants	51.22%	50.56%	SF 7-4
Twins	Orioles	N.Blackburn vs J.Guthrie	Twins	56.33%	47.84%	BAL 3-2
Rays	Indians	J.Nieman vs F.Carmona	Rays	59.18%	54.06%	CLE 3-1
Royals	Yankees	B.Bannister vs A.Burnett	Yankees	69.51%	66.69%	NYA 7-1
Angels	Rangers	J.Saunders vs C.Wilson	Rangers	65.03%	63.44%	TEX 1-0
White Sox	A's	M.Buehrle vs T.Cahill	A's	56.71%	50.31%	CHA 5-1
Red Sox	Mariners	J.Becket vs J.Vargas	Red So	54.34%	48.72%	BOS 2-1

Current ROI: 3.23%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/23	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	41.42%	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Dodgers	24.69%	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
3	Giants	23.63%	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	10.26%	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Bullpen Rests, Dodgers Win

July 22nd, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Mets	Dodgers	H.Takahashi vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	61.69%	63.88%	LAN 2-0
Rockies	Marlins	J.de la Rosa vs J.Johnson	Marlins	65.99%	70.86%	FLA 3-2
Nationals	Reds	L.Hernandez vs E.Volquez	Reds	62.41%	47.09%	WAS 7-1
Padres	Braves	C.Richard vs T.Hudson	Braves	60.16%	53.87%	ATL 8-0
Phillies	Cardinals	C.Hamels vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	60.32%	61.31%	PHI 2-0
Brewers	Pirates	Y.Gallardo vs R.Ohlendorf	Brewers	60.94%	63.22%	MIL 3-2
Giants	DBacks	M.Cain vs R.Lopez	Giants	54.75%	57.51%	SF 3-0
Blue Jays	Tigers	R.Romero vs J.Verlander	Tigers	59.02%	57.56%	DET 5-2
Twins	Orioles	C.Pavano vs K.Millwood	Twins	60.00%	57.63%	MIN 5-0
Royals	Yankees	B.Chen vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	71.91%	69.30%	NYA 10-4
Angels	Rangers	J.Weaver vs C.Lee	Rangers	62.55%	62.28%	TEX 3-2
Red Sox	Mariners	J.Lackey vs R.Rowland	Red Sox	60.00%	62.49%	TBD

Current ROI: 2.86%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/22	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	45.55%	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Dodgers	21.65%	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
3	Giants	20.33%	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	12.47%	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Stop This Madness

July 21st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.52%	56.84%	LAN 2-0
Astros	Cubs	B.Myers vs T.Lilly	Cubs	60.63%	55.18%	HOU 4-3
Brewers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs Z.Duke	Brewers	54.75%	48.78%	PIT 15-3
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	53.05%	51.09%	FLA 5-2
Nationals	Reds	S.Strasburg vs B.Arroyo	Nationals	52.61%	56.86%	WAS 8-5
Padres	Braves	J.Garland vs T.Hanson	Braves	60.78%	67.71%	SD 6-4
Phillies	Cardinals	J.Blanton vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	57.98%	66.37%	STL 5-1
Mets	DBacks	J.Niese vs D.Haren	DBacks	55.36%	51.73%	ARI 4-3
Rays	Orioles	J.Shields vs B.Bergesen	Rays	64.79%	55.09%	TB 5-4
Angels	Yankees	J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	63.77%	58.01%	NYA 10-6
Indians	Twins	J.Westbrook vs F.Liriano	Twins	67.74%	72.94%	MIN 6-0
Blue Jays	Royals	M.Rzepcynski vs Z.Greinke	Royals	60.78%	60.17%	KC 5-2
Red Sox	A's	C.Buchholz vs G.Gonzalez	Red Sox	53.05%	49.66%	OAK 6-4
Rangers	Tigers	C.Lewis vs M.Scherzer	Rangers	51.22%	48.67%	DET 4-1
White Sox	Mariners	G.Floyd vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	56.71%	49.74%	SEA 2-1

Red Flag Pitchers

Lucky
1. Randy Wolf-MIL (BABIP .278)
2. Clay Buchholz-BOS (BABIP .275, HR/FB 3.6%)
3. Jaime Garcia-STL (LOB% 79.8%, HR/FB 5.3%)
4. Jon Garland-SD (BABIP .276)

Unlucky
1. Francisco Liriano-MIN (BABIP .358, LOB% 69.5%, but a HR/FB of 2.4%)
2. Joe Blanton-PHI (BABIP .331, LOB% 62.6%, HR/FB 12.6%)
3. Chad Billingsley-LAN (BABIP .347, LOB% 67.5%)
4. Brad Bergesen-BAL (BABIP .329, LOB% 62.1%)
5. Tommy Hanson-ATL (BABIP .349, LOB% 70.8%, but a HR/FB of 6.2%)


Current ROI: 2.99%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

MLB Scoreboard
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Pocket Aces

July 20th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	53.70%	54.67%	SF 7-5
Rockies	Marlins	J.Francis vs N.Robertson	Rockies	52.15%	47.86%	COL 10-0
Padres	Braves	W.LeBlanc vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	63.24%	62.26%	ATL 4-1
Mets	DBacks	R.Dickey vs B.Enright	Mets	53.92%	59.24%	ARI 3-2
Brewers	Pirates	D.Bush vs B.Lincoln	Brewers	53.92%	55.27%	PIT 11-9
Nationals	Reds	L.Atilano vs M.Leake	Reds	61.98%	56.61%	CIN 8-7
Astros	Cubs	W.Wright vs R.Dempster	Cubs	69.14%	69.49%	CHN 14-7
Phillies	Cardinals	J.Moyer vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	62.96%	61.43%	STL 7-1
Rays	Orioles	M.Garza vs J.Arrieta	Rays	65.03%	54.36%	BAL 11-10
Rangers	Tigers	T.Hunter vs A.Galarraga	Rangers	53.49%	50.42%	TEX 8-0
Angels	Yankees	S.Kazmir vs P.Hughes	Yankees	70.06%	72.38%	LAA 10-2
Indians	Twins	J.Masterson vs K.Slowey	Twins	63.24%	59.40%	CLE 4-3
Blue Jays	Royals	J.Litsch vs A.Larew	Blue Jays	50.98%	54.11%	TOR 13-1
Red Sox	A's	T.Wakefield vs D.Braden	A's	52.83%	59.82%	OAK 5-4
White Sox	Mariners	J.Danks vs D.Fister	White Sox	53.92%	53.23%	CHA 4-0

Current ROI: 3.06%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Dodgers	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
3	Giants	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Rough Seas

July 19th, Simulations of Interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald	Dodgers	53.92%	51.06%	SF 5-2
Rockies	Marlins	U.Jimenez vs A.Sanchez	Rockies	59.02%	49.14%	FLA 9-8
Mets	DBacks	M.Pelfrey vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	52.15%	48.89%	ARI 13-2

Current ROI: 2.69%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Dodgers	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
3	Giants	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	13.84	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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That Sinking Feeling

July 18th, Simulations of Interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Cardinals	V.Padilla vs J.Suppan	Dodgers	58.68%	55.06%	STL 5-4
Phillies	Cubs	R.Halladay vs T.Gorzellany	Phillies	61.83%	48.33%	CHN 11-6
Mets	Giants	J.Santana vs J.Sanchez	Mets	51.69%	41.27%	NYN 4-3
Nationals	Marlins	C.Stammen vs A.Sanabia	Marlins	57.63%	50.77%	FLA 1-0

Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Dodgers	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
3	Giants	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Man Ham Strung

July 17th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Cardinals	H.Kuroda vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	61.69%	60.29%	STL 2-0

Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Dodgers	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
2	Padres	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
3	Giants	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
4	Rockies	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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Some Don't Like It Hot

July 16th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Cardinals	C.Billingsley vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	56.90%	57.08%	STL 8-4
Astros	Pirates	B.Myers vs Z.Duke	Astros	50.74%	52.32%	HOU 5-2
Rockies	Reds	J.Hammel vs B.Arroyo	Reds	54.75%	49.02%	CIN 3-2
Nationals	Marlins	S.Strasburg vs R.Nolasco	Nationals	53.27%	51.95%	WAS 4-0
Mets	Giants	J.Niese vs B.Zito	Giants	54.75%	56.25%	SF 1-0
Tigers	Indians	M.Scherzer vs J.Westbrook	Tigers	58.33%	57.31%	CLE 8-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	R.Romero vs B.Bergesen	Blue Jays	60.00%	61.56%	TOR 4-2
Rays	Yankees	J.Shields vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	64.66%	63.79%	NYA 5-4
Rangers	Red Sox	C.Lewis vs F.Doubront	Rangers	54.75%	53.64%	TEX 8-4
A's	Royals	G.Gonzalez vs Z.Greinke	Royals	58.33%	56.93%	OAK 5-1
White Sox	Twins	G.Floyd vs F.Liriano	Twins	57.08%	61.92%	MIN 7-4
Mariners	Angels	F.Hernandez vs J.Weaver	Angels	56.14%	55.07%	LAA 3-2
Brewers	Braves	R.Wolf vs T.Hanson	Braves	62.83%	71.44%	MIL 9-3

Current ROI: 2.72%

50,000 NL West Seasonal Simulations

NL West Title Hopes
Place	Team	Likely Sim Wins	Likely Sim Losses	Max Wins	Min Wins	NL West Champs	Yesterday
1	Dodgers	88.86	73.14	105	70	39.18%	43.33%
2	Padres	87.88	74.12	108	70	29.36%	28.48%
3	Rockies	86.10	75.90	103	69	16.75%	15.84%
4	Giants	85.69	76.31	104	68	14.71%	12.35%

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Seasonal Team Projections, Read View Mirror

It's time to take a look at how the simulators pre-season team projections are working out. Keep in mind that the simulator simulated the season 10,000 times, and the actual empirical result is nothing more than one sample, so you are bound to see a few teams miss their projected win totals by quite a bit. Here is how the projections look thus far.

Team	Division	On Pace Wins	Simulator Wins	Delta Wins	Closest Rank
Padres	NL West	93.9	72.3	21.6	30th
Dodgers	NL West	90.2	93.8	3.6	10th
Rockies	NL West	90.2	86.7	3.5	9th
Giants	NL West	86.5	75.6	10.9	19th
DBacks	NL West	61.9	82.7	20.8	29th
Reds	NL Central	88.2	75.1	13.1	23rd
Cardinals	NL Central	86.5	84.6	1.9	5th
Brewers	NL Central	72.8	78.0	5.2	13th
Cubs	NL Central	71.0	87.9	16.9	24th
Astros	NL Central	65.5	71.9	6.4	16th
Pirates	NL Central	55.2	72.5	17.3	26th
Braves	NL East	95.7	90.3	5.4	15th
Mets	NL East	88.4	75.7	12.7	22nd
Phillies	NL East	87.5	90.1	2.6	6th
Marlins	NL East	77.3	81.2	3.9	11th
Nationals	NL East	71.0	74.9	3.9	12th
Rangers	AL West	92.0	80.9	11.1	20th
Angels	AL West	83.7	82.2	1.5	3rd
A's	AL West	78.3	81.5	3.2	8th
Mariners	AL West	64.4	82.4	18.0	27th
White Sox	AL Central	91.2	82.1	9.1	18th
Tigers	AL Central	90.4	77.9	12.5	21st
Twins	AL Central	84.7	86.5	1.8	4th
Royals	AL Central	71.8	72.2	0.4	1st
Indians	AL Central	62.6	69.9	7.3	17th
Yankees	AL East	103.1	102.0	1.1	2nd
Rays	AL East	99.4	82.2	17.2	25th
Red Sox	AL East	93.9	91.0	2.9	7th
Blue Jays	AL East	80.1	74.7	5.4	14th
Orioles	AL East	53.4	71.5	18.1	28th

Notes: The five closest seasonal win total projections so far are the Royals, Yankees, Angels, Twins and Cardinals. The five biggest surprises have been the Padres, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners and Pirates.

Around The Clubhouse Turn

July 15th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Cardinals	C.Kershaw vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	54.34%	51.48%	STL 7-1
Brewers	Braves	D.Bush vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	62.26%	59.93%	ATL 2-1
Phillies	Cubs	J.Moyer vs R.Dempster	Cubs	56.52%	57.21%	CHN 12-6
Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum	Giants	63.24%	58.22%	SF 2-0
Rangers	Red Sox	T.Hunter vs T.Wakefield	Red Sox	51.46%	48.03%	TEX 7-2
White Sox	Twins	J.Danks vs K.Slowey	Twins	52.15%	47.24%	CHA 8-7
Mariners	Angels	D.Fister vs J.Pineiro	Angels	60.00%	56.06%	LAA 8-3

Current ROI: 2.76%

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Stage Fright Game

July 11th, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	C.Silva vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	58.33%	50.66%	LAN 7-0

Current ROI: 3.39%

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