Stop This Madness

July 21st, Simulations...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.52%	56.84%	LAN 2-0
Astros	Cubs	B.Myers vs T.Lilly	Cubs	60.63%	55.18%	HOU 4-3
Brewers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs Z.Duke	Brewers	54.75%	48.78%	PIT 15-3
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	53.05%	51.09%	FLA 5-2
Nationals	Reds	S.Strasburg vs B.Arroyo	Nationals	52.61%	56.86%	WAS 8-5
Padres	Braves	J.Garland vs T.Hanson	Braves	60.78%	67.71%	SD 6-4
Phillies	Cardinals	J.Blanton vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	57.98%	66.37%	STL 5-1
Mets	DBacks	J.Niese vs D.Haren	DBacks	55.36%	51.73%	ARI 4-3
Rays	Orioles	J.Shields vs B.Bergesen	Rays	64.79%	55.09%	TB 5-4
Angels	Yankees	J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez	Yankees	63.77%	58.01%	NYA 10-6
Indians	Twins	J.Westbrook vs F.Liriano	Twins	67.74%	72.94%	MIN 6-0
Blue Jays	Royals	M.Rzepcynski vs Z.Greinke	Royals	60.78%	60.17%	KC 5-2
Red Sox	A's	C.Buchholz vs G.Gonzalez	Red Sox	53.05%	49.66%	OAK 6-4
Rangers	Tigers	C.Lewis vs M.Scherzer	Rangers	51.22%	48.67%	DET 4-1
White Sox	Mariners	G.Floyd vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	56.71%	49.74%	SEA 2-1

Red Flag Pitchers

Lucky
1. Randy Wolf-MIL (BABIP .278)
2. Clay Buchholz-BOS (BABIP .275, HR/FB 3.6%)
3. Jaime Garcia-STL (LOB% 79.8%, HR/FB 5.3%)
4. Jon Garland-SD (BABIP .276)

Unlucky
1. Francisco Liriano-MIN (BABIP .358, LOB% 69.5%, but a HR/FB of 2.4%)
2. Joe Blanton-PHI (BABIP .331, LOB% 62.6%, HR/FB 12.6%)
3. Chad Billingsley-LAN (BABIP .347, LOB% 67.5%)
4. Brad Bergesen-BAL (BABIP .329, LOB% 62.1%)
5. Tommy Hanson-ATL (BABIP .349, LOB% 70.8%, but a HR/FB of 6.2%)


Current ROI: 2.99%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	7/21	7/20	7/19	7/18	7/17	7/16	7/15
1	Padres	40.62%	44.09%	42.52%	37.12%	33.01%	29.36%	28.48%
2	Giants	24.07%	19.94%	16.28%	19.88%	17.02%	14.71%	12.35%
3	Dodgers	20.04%	23.84%	27.36%	31.34%	35.52%	39.18%	43.33%
4	Rockies	15.28%	12.13%	13.84%	11.66%	14.44%	16.75%	15.84%

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