Thursday, July 29, 2010

Beating LA!



July 30th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum Giants 63.90% 67.94% SF 6-5
Pirates Cardinals J.Karstens vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 75.00% 75.18% STL 1-0
Cubs Rockies R.Dempster vs J.Francis Rockies 53.70% 60.98% COL 17-2
Marlins Padres C.Volstad vs W.LeBlanc Padres 55.56% 53.56% FLA 4-2
Phillies Nationals R.Oswalt vs C.Stammen Phillies 62.55% 51.26% WAS 8-1
DBacks Mets I.Kennedy vs M.Pelfrey Mets 58.16% 59.17% ARI 9-6
Braves Reds K.Medlen vs J.Cueto Reds 57.08% 53.92% ATL 6-4
Brewers Astros M.Parra vs J.Happ Brewers 51.92% 52.24% HOU 5-0
Indians Blue Jays J.Masterson vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 63.50% 61.65% TOR 8-1
Tigers Red Sox A.Galarraga vs J.Lester Red Sox 71.01% 71.35% DET 6-5
Yankees Rays P.Hughes vs W.Davis Yankees 51.46% 56.04% TB 3-2
Mariners Twins D.Fister vs S.Baker Twins 62.96% 61.53% MIN 5-3
Orioles Royals J.Arrieta vs S.O'Sullivan Royals 55.75% 55.17% KC 7-5
A's White Sox B.Anderson vs D.Hudson A's 50.74% 53.29% CHA 6-1
Rangers Angels T.Hunter vs E.Santana Angels 52.38% 54.62% LAA 9-7


Current ROI: 2.76%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20
1 Padres 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09%
2 Giants 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94%
3 Dodgers 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84%
4 Rockies 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13%


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