Top 20 Games With The Largest Favorites

I found the Top 20 games that had the largest Vegas favorite this season as I was curious to see which teams and or pitchers frequented the list. The Astros(9), Cubs(4) and Twins(3) were the teams that showed up the most on the losing side with the Tigers(6), Athletics(3) and Cardinals(3) showing up the most on the favored side. No pitcher on the favored side shows up more than twice (Verlander, Tanaka, Scherzer, Wainwright). A win expectancy of 73.28% was the largest favorite we have seen so far when Jarred Cossart and the Astros lost to Justin Verlander and the Tigers by the score of 2-0. In these 20 games (SSS) the favorites did very well. You'd expect them to win around 13 or 14 of the 20 games but they won 16 of them for an 80% winning percentage. Of course 20 games is a tiny sample so there is nothing out of the ordinary for winning 16 out of these 20 games. Anyways, most of the fun is just in the list... and here it is.

Date	Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Vegas Fave	ML Fave	ML Dog	Vegas Win Exp	Result
5/5/2014	HOU	DET	Jarred Cosart	Max Scherzer	DET	-270	254	72.38	DET 2-0
4/21/2014	HOU	SEA	Dallas Keuchel	Felix Hernandez	SEA	-262	247	71.79	HOU 7-2
4/20/2014	HOU	OAK	Brad Peacock	Jesse Chavez	OAK	-255	235	71.01	OAK 4-1
4/22/2014	CHA	DET	Chris Leesman	Justin Verlander	DET	-250	230	70.59	DET 8-6
5/9/2014	MIN	DET	Phil Hughes	Justin Verlander	DET	-235	225	69.70	MIN 2-1
5/7/2014	HOU	DET	Brad Peacock	Rick Porcello	DET	-230	220	69.23	DET 3-2
5/10/2014	MIN	DET	Kyle Gibson	Max Scherzer	DET	-228	218	69.04	DET 9-3
4/11/2014	HOU	TEX	Scott Feldman	Yu Darvish	TEX	-225	215	68.75	TEX 1-0
5/13/2014	CHN	STL	Jake Arrieta	Adam Wainwright	STL	-230	210	68.75	STL 4-3
4/10/2014	MIA	WAS	Tom Koehler	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	-216	206	67.85	WAS 7-1
4/10/2014	HOU	TOR	Dallas Keuchel	R.A. Dickey	TOR	-215	205	67.74	HOU 6-4
4/13/2014	CHN	STL	Edwin Jackson	Michael Wacha	STL	-215	205	67.74	STL 6-4
4/12/2014	CHN	STL	Carlos Villanueva	Adam Wainwright	STL	-213	203	67.53	STL 10-4
4/19/2014	HOU	OAK	Brad Oberholtzer	Scott Kazmir	OAK	-215	195	67.21	OAK 4-3
4/18/2014	HOU	OAK	Jarred Cosart	Sonny Gray	OAK	-200	190	66.10	OAK 11-3
4/22/2014	MIN	TB	Kyle Gibson	David Price	TB	-203	187	66.10	TB 7-3
4/9/2014	MIA	WAS	Brad Hand	Jordan Zimmermann	WAS	-202	185	65.93	WAS 10-7
4/16/2014	CHN	NYA	Jason Hammel	Masahiro Tanaka	NYA	-200	185	65.81	NYA 3-0
5/8/2014	HOU	DET	Dallas Keuchel	Drew Smyly	DET	-197	188	65.81	HOU 6-2
5/3/2014	TB	NYA	Jake Odorizzi	Masahiro Tanaka	NYA	-195	187	65.64	NYA 9-3

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcer	Fave	ML	ML	Win %	O/U	Over Vig	Under Vig	Exp Runs
LAN	ARI	Clayton Kershaw	Chase Anderson	LAN	-158	153	60.86	8	105	-115	7.76
NYN	WAS	Bartolo Colon	Gio Gonzalaz	WAS	-150	145	59.60	7.5	117	-127	7.10
TB	LAA	Carlos Ramos	C.J. Wilson	LAA	-143	138	58.42	8.5	100	-110	8.33
MIA	SF	Tom Koehler	Tim Lincecum	SF	-141	136	58.07	7.5	112	-122	7.16
OAK	CLE	Scott Kazmir	Josh Tomlin	OAK	-135	130	56.99	7.5	-113	103	7.52
SD	COL	Robbie Erlin	Jordan Lyles	COL	-133	128	56.62	9.5	-108	-102	9.44
PIT	NYA	Edinson Volquez	David Phelps	NYA	-127	122	55.46	9	105	-115	8.76
BAL	KC	Bud Norris	Danny Duffy	KC	-124	119	54.85	7.5	100	-110	7.33
DET	BOS	Rick Porcello	John Lackey	BOS	-123	118	54.65	8.5	107	-117	8.23
CIN	PHI	Homer Bailey	Cole Hamels	PHI	-119	114	53.81	7.5	-105	-105	7.40
ATL	STL	Aaron Harang	Shelby Miller	STL	-118	113	53.60	7	-115	105	7.04
MIL	CHN	Matt Garza	Edwin Jackson	MIL	-117	112	53.38	7.5	-115	-105	7.47
CHA	HOU	Hector Noesi	Jarred Cosart	HOU	-115	110	52.94	9	112	-122	8.66
SEA	MIN	Roenis Elias	Samuel Deduno	MIN	-110	105	51.81	8	104	-114	7.77
TOR	TEX	Mark Buehrle	Robbie Ross	TEX	-105	-105	50.00	9	-115	-105	8.97

Notes: Table sorted by largest favorite

What Does The Leverage Index Look Like

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Leverage index was a statistic invented by Tom Tango that measures the importance or pressure of a situation in a baseball game. An average leverage index is 1.0 and anything higher than that indicates that the current state is an above average pressure situation. I used my simulator to determine what the average leverage index was for when there were 0, 1 and 2 outs in any inning of a game. I then used the simulator to also determine the average leverage index for each half inning of a game. The results are below. For these simulations I used a few random games so results could be slightly different running other games but the trends should be similar.  The results are that you generally see higher leverage situations the lower the number of outs are and you also tend to see higher leverage situations later in the games.  Those conclusions may be obvious but at least you can get a visual image of it.  Five millions games were simulated.

Table 1
Average Leverage Index Based on Outs State

Outs	Average LI
0	1.159
1	1.083
2	0.952

Table 2
Average Leverage Index Based on Half Inning of Game (0=Top of first, 1=Bottom of first etc...)

Inning	Average LI
0	0.913
1	0.906
2	0.897
3	0.902
4	0.909
5	0.930
6	0.970
7	0.996
8	0.990
9	1.009
10	1.038
11	1.065
12	1.065
13	1.085
14	1.091
15	1.164
16	1.123
17	1.968
18	2.437
19	2.727

Graph of Table 2

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Friday's MLB Vegas Numbers

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	ML	ML	Win %	O/U	Over Vig	Under Vig	Exp Runs
TOR	TEX	Drew Hutchison	Yu Darvish	TEX	-166	159	61.90	8.5	100	-110	8.33
SD	COL	Eric Stults	Jorge de la Rosa	COL	-153	148	60.08	10.5	-105	-105	10.40
LAN	ARI	Zack Greinke	Wade Miley	LAN	-138	128	57.08	8.5	-105	115	8.54
TB	LAA	Chris Archer	Jered Weaver	LAA	-135	130	56.99	8	-110	100	7.97
MIA	SF	Henderson Alvarez	Yusmeiro Petit	SF	-136	126	56.71	7.5	105	-125	7.19
NYN	WAS	Jonathan Niese	Tanner Roark	WAS	-131	126	56.24	7	-105	-105	6.90
OAK	CLE	Sonny Gray	Zach McAllister	OAK	-127	122	55.46	7.5	105	-115	7.26
PIT	NYA	Edinson Volquez	David Phelps	NYA	-123	118	54.65	8.5	-115	105	8.54
MIL	CHN	Kyle Lohse	Jeff Samardzija	CHN	-111	106	52.04	6.5	-110	-110	6.40
CIN	PHI	Alfredo Simon	Kyle Kendrick	CIN	-110	105	51.81	8	-116	106	8.06
ATL	STL	Ervin Santana	Lance Lynn	STL	-109	104	51.57	7	117	-127	6.60
CHA	HOU	Jose Quintana	Collin McHugh	HOU	-108	103	51.34	8	-120	110	8.11
SEA	MIN	Chris Young	Kyle Gibson	MIN	-107	102	51.10	8	-110	100	7.97
DET	BOS	Max Scherzer	Jon Lester	BOS	-105	100	50.62	8	110	-120	7.69
BAL	KC	Chris Tillman	Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	-104	-101	50.37	8	102	-112	7.80

Notes: Table sorted by largest Vegas favorite.

How Is Vegas Doing On Park Factors?

Below is a table showing each teams actual park factor (runs) and the Vegas park factor which is calculated by reverse engineering their over/unders for each game and using that as a proxy for actual runs scored for each game. The table is sorted by which actual park factor is closest to the Vegas park factor. The teams at the top of the list are playing in a run environment at home close to where the betting public is predicting it to be. The teams at the bottom of the list are having a lot of random variation when it comes to their home park run environment so far in this young season. Small sample sizes and regression to the mean are at play here but it is interesting to see how things are shaping up so far with the empirical data.

Team	Actual PF	Vegas PF	Delta
Dodgers	0.992	0.998	0.005
Reds	1.118	1.082	0.036
Padres	0.945	0.908	0.037
Twins	0.941	0.978	0.037
Mets	0.791	0.847	0.056
Rangers	1.009	1.065	0.056
DBacks	1.013	1.071	0.058
Braves	0.922	0.981	0.059
White Sox	1.035	0.962	0.073
Phillies	0.827	0.910	0.083
Marlins	1.136	1.034	0.103
Giants	0.849	0.951	0.103
A's	0.783	0.888	0.106
Indians	0.907	1.014	0.106
Blue Jays	1.219	1.103	0.116
Tigers	0.930	1.060	0.130
Pirates	1.047	0.912	0.136
Rockies	1.473	1.321	0.152
Yankees	0.872	1.037	0.165
Cubs	1.167	0.993	0.174
Mariners	0.738	0.931	0.192
Rays	1.123	0.927	0.195
Nats	0.773	0.988	0.215
Red Sox	1.248	1.021	0.227
Royals	1.285	1.052	0.233
Astros	1.261	1.020	0.241
Angels	1.253	0.964	0.288
Orioles	0.694	1.017	0.324
Brewers	0.667	1.056	0.388
Cardinals	1.375	0.974	0.402

Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Madison Bumgarner	Paul Maholm	Giants	4.00408	3.28917	55.448	7.29325

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4259		51	4	7	586
2	1	2	3706		52	0	5	572
3	3	4	3699		53	3	7	563
4	3	2	3406		54	5	7	559
5	2	1	2928		55	7	6	533
6	4	3	2693		56	2	7	506
7	3	1	2688		57	8	4	504
8	4	2	2568		58	8	0	467
9	4	5	2500		59	9	3	462
10	4	1	2287		60	9	2	454
11	1	3	2200		61	9	1	445
12	5	3	1959		62	1	7	421
13	0	1	1958		63	0	6	400
14	2	4	1958		64	8	5	388
15	5	2	1935		65	3	8	375
16	5	1	1797		66	7	8	372
17	5	4	1779		67	2	8	345
18	3	0	1713		68	8	6	320
19	2	0	1608		69	9	4	316
20	1	0	1573		70	4	8	287
21	3	5	1538		71	9	0	287
22	1	4	1529		72	1	8	280
23	5	6	1481		73	10	2	276
24	0	2	1461		74	10	1	273
25	6	3	1451		75	6	8	266
26	6	2	1437		76	9	5	264
27	4	0	1433		77	10	3	260
28	2	5	1395		78	5	8	256
29	6	1	1329		79	0	7	252
30	5	0	1222		80	8	7	249
31	6	4	1212		81	3	9	243
32	0	3	1136		82	10	4	230
33	6	5	1088		83	2	9	214
34	7	2	1084		84	10	0	212
35	7	1	1017		85	9	6	199
36	1	5	980		86	1	9	175
37	4	6	973		87	4	9	173
38	6	0	966		88	0	8	167
39	7	3	938		89	11	1	166
40	3	6	917		90	8	9	164
41	2	6	873		91	10	5	154
42	0	4	820		92	5	9	152
43	7	4	806		93	11	2	150
44	6	7	739		94	11	3	146
45	8	2	719		95	6	9	144
46	8	1	709		96	9	7	142
47	7	0	677		97	11	0	142
48	1	6	676		98	3	10	140
49	8	3	673		99	2	10	131
50	7	5	661		100	11	4	119

Giants vs Dodgers - Thursday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Giants	Dodgers	Ryan Vogelsong	Josh Beckett	Dodgers	3.28815	4.06382	61.104	7.35197

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Giants	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4723		51	7	4	618
2	3	4	4028		52	5	7	590
3	1	2	3963		53	3	8	576
4	3	2	2855		54	7	5	560
5	1	3	2775		55	5	0	550
6	2	4	2727		56	7	1	479
7	4	5	2519		57	7	6	471
8	2	1	2466		58	4	8	455
9	4	3	2432		59	2	9	427
10	1	4	2350		60	0	8	416
11	2	5	2069		61	8	2	414
12	4	2	2050		62	8	4	409
13	0	1	2017		63	6	0	404
14	3	1	1952		64	1	9	390
15	0	2	1936		65	7	8	390
16	0	3	1907		66	3	9	379
17	3	5	1838		67	5	8	378
18	1	5	1732		68	8	3	374
19	5	4	1670		69	8	5	332
20	0	4	1588		70	8	1	308
21	5	3	1556		71	0	9	307
22	5	6	1547		72	4	9	304
23	4	1	1450		73	8	6	292
24	5	2	1415		74	6	8	288
25	3	6	1356		75	2	10	284
26	2	6	1351		76	1	10	267
27	1	6	1287		77	9	4	257
28	1	0	1239		78	7	0	248
29	0	5	1217		79	9	3	247
30	2	0	1171		80	9	2	236
31	4	6	1142		81	3	10	234
32	6	3	1080		82	5	9	230
33	6	5	1073		83	8	7	219
34	5	1	1040		84	9	1	197
35	2	7	1012		85	4	10	191
36	6	4	1012		86	2	11	189
37	3	0	982		87	0	10	185
38	0	6	937		88	1	11	185
39	6	2	926		89	8	9	184
40	1	7	924		90	9	5	183
41	3	7	860		91	6	9	177
42	6	7	849		92	9	6	161
43	4	7	775		93	10	3	161
44	4	0	762		94	3	11	157
45	6	1	712		95	9	7	151
46	7	3	704		96	10	2	144
47	1	8	662		97	5	10	140
48	7	2	660		98	10	4	138
49	0	7	659		99	8	0	134
50	2	8	647		100	6	10	128

Disclaimer: Game simulated 100K times.

Thursday's MLB Vegas Numbers

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	ML	ML	Win %	O/U	Over Vig	Under Vig	Exp Runs
HOU	DET	Dallas Keuchel	Drew Smyly	DET	-197	188	65.81	8.5	-106	-104	8.41
BAL	TB	Ubaldo Jimenez	David Price	TB	-170	163	62.48	7.5	115	-125	7.13
MIN	CLE	Kevin Correia	Justin Masterson	CLE	-169	162	62.34	8	110	-120	7.69
MIA	SD	Jacob Turner	Ian Kennedy	SD	-148	143	59.27	7	113	-123	6.65
SF	LAN	Ryan Vogelsong	Josh Beckett	LAN	-148	143	59.27	7.5	107	-117	7.23
KC	SEA	Danny Duffy	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	-128	123	55.65	7	-115	105	7.04
COL	TEX	Franklin Morales	Matt Harrison	TEX	-126	121	55.26	9.5	-112	102	9.50
PHI	TOR	A.J. Burnett	R.A. Dickey	TOR	-122	117	54.44	8.5	-125	115	8.67
CHN	CHA	Jake Arrieta	Steve Carroll	CHA	-118	113	53.60	8.5	-125	115	8.67

Source: Opening lines from 5Dimes.com

Notes: Table sorted by largest favorite

Wednesday's Vegas Numbers

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	ML	ML	Win %	O/U	Over Vig	Under Vig	Exp Run Total
HOU	DET	Brad Peacock	Rick Porcello	DET	-230	220	69.23	8.5	-110	100	8.47
MIN	CLE	Ricky Nolasco	Dennis Salazar	CLE	-156	151	60.55	8	102	-112	7.80
CIN	BOS	Mike Leake	Jake Peavy	BOS	-141	136	58.07	8.5	101	-111	8.31
ARI	MIL	Bronson Arroyo	Wily Peralta	MIL	-138	133	57.54	8	-110	100	7.97
LAN	WAS	Dan Haren	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	-137	132	57.36	6.5	-120	110	6.61
BAL	TB	Bud Norris	Carlos Ramos	TB	-134	129	56.80	7.5	-108	-102	7.44
SF	PIT	Tim Lincecum	Garrit Cole	PIT	-130	125	56.04	7	-107	-103	6.93
NYA	LAA	Vic Nuno	Hector Santiago	LAA	-128	123	55.65	8.5	-110	100	8.47
COL	TEX	Jorge de la Rosa	Colby Lewis	TEX	-125	120	55.06	9.5	105	-115	9.26
STL	ATL	Adam Wainwright	Mike Minor	STL	-120	115	54.02	6.5	-120	110	6.61
CHN	CHA	Travis Wood	John Danks	CHA	-119	114	53.81	8	-115	105	8.04
SEA	OAK	Felix Hernandez	Daniel Straily	SEA	-118	113	53.60	7	-105	-105	6.90
NYN	MIA	Zack Wheeler	Tom Koehler	MIA	-115	110	52.94	7.5	100	-110	7.33
KC	SD	James Shields	Andrew Cashner	SD	-106	101	50.86	6.5	115	-125	6.13
PHI	TOR	Cliff Lee	Mark Buehrle	TOR	-105	100	50.62	7.5	-125	115	7.67

Note: Table sorted by largest favorite to win game.

Dodgers vs Nationals - Monday's Simulation Results

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Dodgers	Nationals	Zach Greinke	Jordan Zimmermann	Dodgers	3.45	3.19	51.68%	6.64

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Nats	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Nats	Occurrences
1	1	2	4712		51	6	7	500
2	2	3	4694		52	4	7	494
3	3	2	3704		53	7	0	475
4	2	1	3617		54	8	2	461
5	3	4	3483		55	8	1	457
6	3	1	3064		56	7	6	431
7	4	3	2785		57	8	3	414
8	4	2	2774		58	2	8	399
9	0	1	2585		59	0	7	380
10	1	3	2555		60	5	7	375
11	4	1	2346		61	8	4	370
12	2	0	2245		62	1	8	344
13	2	4	2187		63	3	8	336
14	4	5	2187		64	8	0	329
15	1	0	2150		65	9	2	315
16	0	2	1972		66	4	8	309
17	3	0	1932		67	8	5	294
18	5	2	1898		68	9	1	280
19	5	3	1829		69	9	3	271
20	1	4	1812		70	0	8	266
21	5	4	1751		71	7	8	233
22	5	1	1659		72	8	6	229
23	4	0	1597		73	9	0	226
24	3	5	1512		74	5	8	225
25	0	3	1474		75	1	9	224
26	2	5	1426		76	2	9	212
27	1	5	1334		77	3	9	211
28	5	6	1238		78	9	4	206
29	6	3	1199		79	10	2	205
30	0	4	1192		80	4	9	190
31	6	2	1159		81	6	8	173
32	5	0	1136		82	8	7	171
33	6	1	1085		83	10	1	167
34	6	4	993		84	10	3	149
35	3	6	970		85	0	9	147
36	2	6	922		86	5	9	147
37	1	6	882		87	9	5	146
38	6	5	875		88	2	10	132
39	4	6	836		89	3	10	126
40	0	5	824		90	9	6	124
41	6	0	789		91	10	4	118
42	7	2	734		92	11	2	118
43	7	1	679		93	1	10	115
44	7	3	669		94	8	9	115
45	7	4	597		95	10	0	113
46	2	7	580		96	11	3	104
47	0	6	555		97	11	1	100
48	1	7	549		98	4	10	99
49	3	7	542		99	6	9	96
50	7	5	530		100	9	7	95

Note: 100,000 games were simulated.

Sunday's Vegas Numbers

Vegas odds sorted by largest win expectancy

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	ML	ML	Win %	O/U	Over Vig	Under Vig	Exp Runs
LAN	MIA	Stephen Fife	Jose Fernandez	MIA	-168	161	62.19	7	-122	112	7.14
CHA	CLE	Andre Rienzo	Corey Kluber	CLE	-153	148	60.08	8.5	-105	-105	8.40
TB	NYA	Eric Bedard	CC Sabathia	NYA	-152	147	59.92	9	-110	100	8.97
NYN	COL	Dillon Gee	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	-143	138	58.42	10	-120	110	10.11
STL	CHN	Lance Lynn	Jason Hammel	STL	-136	131	57.17	7	-110	-110	6.90
WAS	PHI	Gio Gonzalez	Roberto Hernandez	WAS	-136	126	56.71	8	-110	-110	7.90
SF	ATL	Madison Bumgarner	Alex Wood	ATL	-133	128	56.62	7	100	-110	6.83
TOR	PIT	Dustin McGowan	Edinson Volquez	PIT	-122	117	54.44	8	-113	103	8.02
MIL	CIN	Kyle Lohse	Alfredo Simon	CIN	-121	116	54.23	7.5	112	-122	7.16
DET	KC	Justin Verlander	Jason Vargas	DET	-120	115	54.02	8	-103	-107	7.87
TEX	LAA	Yu Darvish	Tyler Skaggs	TEX	-114	109	52.72	7.5	100	-110	7.33
ARI	SD	Wade Miley	Tyson Ross	SD	-114	109	52.72	7	112	-122	6.66
BAL	MIN	Miguel Gonzalez	Phil Hughes	MIN	-108	103	51.34	8.5	-105	-105	8.40
SEA	HOU	Brandon Mauer	Charles McHugh	HOU	-107	102	51.10	8.5	100	-110	8.33
OAK	BOS	Sonny Gray	John Lackey	OAK	-106	101	50.86	8.5	-108	-102	8.44

Source: 5dimes.com

Dodgers vs Marlins - Saturday's Simulation Results

Simulation Results...

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Away RS	Home RS	Win %	Total Runs
Dodgers	Marlins	Paul Maholm	Jacob Turner	Dodgers	4.88594	4.04291	56.097	8.92885

Box Score...


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Marlins	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Marlins	Occurrences
1	2	3	2995		51	8	5	708
2	3	4	2896		52	7	8	704
3	4	5	2593		53	3	7	701
4	4	3	2498		54	2	7	675
5	3	2	2459		55	8	1	660
6	1	2	2167		56	6	0	658
7	4	2	2109		57	9	2	650
8	5	4	2086		58	9	3	623
9	2	1	1865		59	0	4	612
10	5	3	1852		60	8	6	562
11	2	4	1826		61	5	8	561
12	5	2	1756		62	9	4	557
13	5	6	1754		63	4	8	553
14	3	1	1752		64	7	0	547
15	3	5	1731		65	8	7	532
16	4	1	1608		66	9	1	531
17	1	3	1535		67	3	8	522
18	6	3	1519		68	1	7	513
19	6	5	1474		69	0	5	486
20	6	4	1448		70	6	8	485
21	2	5	1401		71	9	5	474
22	6	2	1358		72	2	8	468
23	5	1	1321		73	10	2	437
24	1	4	1311		74	8	0	415
25	3	6	1240		75	10	1	414
26	4	6	1212		76	10	3	407
27	7	4	1158		77	10	4	387
28	6	7	1141		78	9	6	375
29	7	3	1108		79	8	9	350
30	7	2	1061		80	3	9	343
31	6	1	1031		81	1	8	342
32	7	5	1002		82	9	7	338
33	2	6	955		83	4	9	337
34	2	0	927		84	0	6	333
35	3	0	923		85	10	5	316
36	0	1	913		86	11	3	311
37	1	5	905		87	11	2	304
38	7	6	895		88	9	0	301
39	4	0	865		89	5	9	297
40	7	1	864		90	6	9	290
41	8	3	841		91	9	8	282
42	8	2	829		92	0	7	273
43	5	7	815		93	10	6	271
44	0	2	806		94	2	9	270
45	1	0	804		95	11	4	253
46	4	7	796		96	11	1	247
47	0	3	779		97	11	5	233
48	8	4	762		98	12	4	230
49	5	0	714		99	7	9	226
50	1	6	712		100	3	10	224

Disclaimer: Based off of 100K simulations with input statistics from Fangraphs Zips(U)

Pros/Cons of a 40-pitch scoreless first inning

Beyond The Boxscore and Tom Tango asked the following question.

Would you rather be down 1 run, with your starting pitcher having thrown no more than 10 pitches, or would you rather throw a scoreless inning, but your starting pitcher having thrown at least 40 pitches?

To me it kind of seemed like a no brainer. I would rather keep the run off the board. So I put my simulator to the test to see what it thought. My simulator has an engine that worsens pitcher performance based on the number of pitches thrown. It is a good proxy for times through the batting order. Both have an effect on how a pitcher usually gets worse as the game goes on.

What I did is take a game between the Dodgers and Twins early in the week where Zack Greinke pitched against Kyle Gibson. First off, I simulated the game from the very beginning to set a baseline for how often the Dodgers should win this game and how long and how well Zack Greinke pitches. Next, I set the game state to the top of the second inning with the first batter of the inning up. I tell the simulator that the Dodgers number five hitter leads off the 2nd inning and the Twins number six hitter leads off the bottom half. These settings are then kept constant for the remaining trials.

Results: Dodgers win 62.793%, Greinke pitches an average of 6.598 innings with an average FIP of 3.108

The next simulation is with Greinke having made 10 first inning pitches and the Twins starter 15. The score is 1-0 Twins and then 100K games are simulated. So in this simulation the Dodgers are starting the 2nd inning down one run but Greinke starts the inning only having made 10 first inning pitches.

Results: Twins win 50.161%, Greinke pitches an average of 6.875 innings with an average FIP (2nd inning on) of 3.118

Up next I ran the simulation with Greinke having made 40 pitches in the first inning but not having given up a run. So the score is tied 0-0 in the top of the 2nd. The Dodgers have a pretty good bullpen on paper (projection systems) and some of their long reliever options are not terrible.

Results: Dodgers win 60.047%, Greinke pitches an average of 4.969 innings with an average FIP (2nd inning on) of 3.162

Then for fun I had Greinke throw both an 80 and a 100 pitch first inning with the score tied 0-0 heading in to the second inning. Those results are below. I think the one run hole that the away team is put in is a much much larger hole than a first inning where a starting pitcher throws 40 vs 10 pitches. And of course the difference will be a little bit different for each team based on the differences in talent level of the starting pitcher and the bullpen, namely the long reliever. My study just looks at one game but the nearly two innings lost from the starting pitcher will have an impact on the next couple of games as the bullpen will be tired and perhaps a few of them unavailable to pitch the next game. So you can take my results and adjust for those things I just mentioned but I think it is more than safe to say that for a one time deal, the 40 pitch no run first inning is a much better scenario for the Dodgers.

Remarks	Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Fave	Away Runs	Home Runs	Win %	Total Runs	Greinke IP	Greinke FIP
Full 9 innings	LAN	MIN	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	LAN	4.490	3.142	62.793	7.632	6.598	3.108
Greinke 10 pitch 1 run first inning	LAN	MIN	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	MIN	3.933	3.719	50.161	7.652	6.875	3.118
Greinke 40 pitch 0 run first inning	LAN	MIN	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	LAN	3.957	2.941	60.047	6.898	4.969	3.162
Greinke 80 pitch 0 run first inning	LAN	MIN	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	LAN	3.952	3.016	59.175	6.968	2.569	3.236
Greinke 100 pitch 0 run first inning	LAN	MIN	Zach Greinke	Kyle Gibson	LAN	3.948	3.149	57.425	7.097	1.640	3.499