Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 3/30

                                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	LAN	SD	Count		Rank	LAN	SD	Count
1	1	2	63372		51	7	4	3538
2	2	3	50442		52	8	1	3329
3	2	1	50127		53	1	8	3232
4	0	1	49629		54	8	2	3187
5	1	0	41080		55	6	7	2959
6	3	2	38846		56	4	7	2914
7	0	2	33625		57	7	5	2820
8	1	3	32681		58	8	0	2766
9	2	0	32648		59	2	8	2751
10	3	1	32492		60	0	8	2678
11	3	4	30468		61	8	3	2662
12	0	3	26056		62	7	6	2331
13	4	3	23522		63	5	7	2247
14	3	0	23089		64	3	8	2153
15	4	2	22796		65	9	1	2023
16	2	4	22177		66	8	4	1957
17	1	4	22148		67	9	2	1851
18	4	1	21139		68	1	9	1736
19	0	4	18623		69	2	9	1640
20	4	5	15670		70	9	0	1617
21	4	0	15404		71	4	8	1561
22	1	5	14530		72	8	5	1548
23	5	2	13876		73	9	3	1539
24	2	5	13777		74	0	9	1518
25	5	1	13404		75	3	9	1242
26	5	3	13113		76	5	8	1175
27	0	5	12291		77	10	1	1170
28	5	4	12112		78	8	6	1130
29	3	5	11725		79	7	8	1114
30	5	0	10538		80	9	4	1075
31	1	6	8849		81	10	2	1071
32	6	2	8717		82	1	10	975
33	6	1	8420		83	8	7	949
34	2	6	8242		84	2	10	929
35	0	6	7868		85	10	0	926
36	6	3	7620		86	0	10	877
37	6	0	7040		87	4	9	870
38	5	6	6993		88	9	5	867
39	3	6	6850		89	6	8	864
40	6	4	6337		90	10	3	848
41	6	5	5554		91	3	10	647
42	4	6	5519		92	9	6	623
43	7	1	5468		93	10	4	617
44	1	7	5440		94	11	1	605
45	7	2	5281		95	5	9	600
46	0	7	4752		96	11	2	567
47	2	7	4733		97	11	0	536
48	7	3	4570		98	1	11	535
49	7	0	4384		99	11	3	531
50	3	7	3839		100	2	11	509

Notes: Game simulated one million times.

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Pittsburgh Pirates.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros | Red Sox
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                   Pirates 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections

	K%	BB%	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Jose Tabata	14.9%	7.4%	0.265	0.329	0.381	0.710	0.312
Starling Marte	23.8%	4.3%	0.265	0.318	0.430	0.748	0.324
Neil Walker	17.7%	8.3%	0.261	0.330	0.418	0.748	0.324
Gaby Sanchez	15.7%	10.0%	0.252	0.333	0.401	0.734	0.322
Andrew McCutchen	17.5%	11.3%	0.288	0.375	0.484	0.859	0.367
Pedro Alvarez	32.0%	8.9%	0.234	0.303	0.465	0.768	0.328
Russell Martin	19.4%	10.5%	0.234	0.326	0.384	0.710	0.315
Jordy Mercer	17.6%	5.7%	0.252	0.302	0.385	0.687	0.295

See the results after the jump