Here are the odds of each remaining World Series game based on the knowledge of the Vegas odds that each team wins the World Series and the Vegas odds for games 1,2 and 3. The odds for games 1,2 and 3 give us a good approximation for the odds in games 5,6 and 7 and we can move the game four odds around in such a way that the chances for each team winning the series match the Vegas odds.
Here is a look at the table with the individual game odds.
| Game # | Red Sox | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Game 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Game 3 | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Game 4 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Game 5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| Game 6 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Game 7 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Series | 52.4% | 47.6% |
And here is a table with the chances of the series ending with one team winning in X number of games.
| Result | Chance % | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 52.4% | ||
| Red Sox in 4 | 0.0% | NA |
| Red Sox in 5 | 11.5% | 7.73 |
| Red Sox in 6 | 19.0% | 4.28 |
| Red Sox in 7 | 22.0% | 3.55 |
| 47.6% | ||
| Cardinals in 4 | 0.0% | NA |
| Cardinals in 5 | 13.5% | 6.38 |
| Cardinals in 6 | 18.5% | 4.40 |
| Cardinals in 7 | 15.5% | 5.43 |
Notes
- HFA of 4% is assumed
- Data was computed with spreadsheet provided by one of my readers.
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