Aaron Harang, The Worst Of The Bunch

Time to move on and look at the comparables for the last Dodgers starting pitcher. Keep in mind I am looking at 2010/2011 data using the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats. These stats are used because they are important skill stats, only slightly effected by such things as defense and park factors. Below are Aaron Harang's closest comparable starting pitchers along with links to the other four Dodgers pitchers I've already looked at.

Clayton Kershaw | Chad Billingsley | Ted Lilly | Chris Capuano

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
1	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
2	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
3	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
4	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
5	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
6	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
7	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
8	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
9	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
10	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
11	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
12	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
13	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
14	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
15	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
16	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
17	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
18	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
19	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
20	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
21	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
22	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
23	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
24	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
25	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
26	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
27	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
28	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
29	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
30	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
31	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
32	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
33	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
34	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
35	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
38	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
39	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
40	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
41	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
42	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
43	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
44	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
45	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
46	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
47	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
48	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
49	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
50	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
51	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
52	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
53	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
54	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
55	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
56	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
57	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
58	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
59	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
60	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
61	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
62	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
63	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
64	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
65	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
66	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
67	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
68	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
69	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
70	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
71	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
72	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
73	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
74	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
75	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
76	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
77	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
78	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
79	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
80	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
81	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
82	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
83	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
84	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
85	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
86	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
87	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
88	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
89	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
90	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
91	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
92	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
93	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
94	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
95	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
96	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
97	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
98	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
99	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
100	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
101	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
102	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
103	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
104	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
105	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
106	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
107	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
110	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
111	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
112	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
113	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
114	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
115	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
116	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
117	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
118	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
119	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
120	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
121	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
122	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
123	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
124	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
125	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
126	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
127	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
128	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
129	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
130	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
131	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
132	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
133	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
134	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
135	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
136	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
137	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
138	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
139	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
140	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
141	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
142	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
143	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
144	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
145	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
146	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
147	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
148	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
149	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
150	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
151	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
152	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
153	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
154	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
157	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
158	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91

Chris Capuano, Better Than You Think

It's time to look at one of the new additions to the Dodgers rotation and which pitchers around the majors have a similar skill set as him. Chris Capuano was signed as a free-agent after leaving the New York Mets. Capuano does have peripherals that compare to some pretty good pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Matt Garza. Capuano did put up much better stats at home than on the road but I am looking at three skill stats in which park factors do not play a big role in. Below are Capuano's closest comparables (using 2010 and 2011 stats, min of 150 IP).

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
1	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
2	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
3	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
4	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
5	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
6	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
7	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
8	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
9	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
10	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
11	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
12	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
13	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
14	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
15	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
16	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
17	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
18	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
19	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
20	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
21	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
24	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
25	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
26	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
27	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
28	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
29	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
30	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
31	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
32	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
35	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
36	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
37	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
38	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
39	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
40	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
41	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
42	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
43	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
44	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
45	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
46	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
47	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
48	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
49	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
50	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
51	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
52	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
53	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
54	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
55	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
56	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
57	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
58	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
59	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
60	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
61	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
62	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
63	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
64	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
65	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
66	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
67	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
68	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
69	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
70	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
71	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
72	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
73	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
74	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
75	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
76	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
77	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
80	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
81	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
82	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
83	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
84	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
85	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
86	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
87	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
88	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
89	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
90	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
91	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
92	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
93	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
94	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
95	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
96	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
97	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
98	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
99	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
100	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
101	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
102	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
103	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
104	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
105	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
106	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
107	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
108	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
111	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
112	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
113	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
114	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
115	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
116	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
117	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
118	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
119	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
120	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
121	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
124	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
125	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
126	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
127	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
128	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
129	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
130	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
131	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
132	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
133	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
134	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
135	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
136	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
137	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
138	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
139	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
140	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
141	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
144	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
145	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
146	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
147	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
148	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
149	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Nobody Wants To Be Ted Lilly

Next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher similarity scores is Ted Lilly the left handed pitcher for the Dodgers that has a tendency to give up a lot of fly balls which in turn leads to a souvenir bonanza for those fans brave enough to sit in the outfield bleachers.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
1	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
2	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
3	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
4	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
5	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
6	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
7	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
8	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
9	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
10	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
11	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
12	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
13	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
14	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
15	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
16	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
17	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
18	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
19	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
20	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
21	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
24	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
25	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
26	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
27	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
28	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
29	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
30	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
31	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
38	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
39	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
40	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
41	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
42	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
43	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
44	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
45	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
46	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
47	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
48	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
49	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
50	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
51	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
52	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
53	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
54	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
55	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
56	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
57	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
58	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
59	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
60	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
61	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
62	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
63	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
64	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
65	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
66	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
67	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
68	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
69	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
70	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
71	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
72	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
73	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
74	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
75	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
76	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
77	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
80	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
81	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
82	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
83	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
84	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
85	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
86	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
87	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
88	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
89	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
90	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
91	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
92	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
93	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
94	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
95	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
96	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
97	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
98	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
99	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
100	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
103	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
104	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
105	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
106	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
107	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
110	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
111	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
112	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
113	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
114	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
115	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
116	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
117	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
118	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
119	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
120	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
121	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
122	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
123	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
124	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
125	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
126	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
127	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
128	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
129	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
130	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
131	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
132	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
133	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
134	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
135	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
136	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
137	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
138	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
139	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
140	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
141	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
144	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
145	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
146	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
147	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
148	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
149	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
152	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
153	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
154	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Chad Billingsley, A Mixed Bag

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Chad Billingsley. There are a mixed bag of pitchers who have a similar skill set as Billingsley. A.J. Burnett is not the best player to be comparable to in the world, yet C.J. Wilson isn't too bad. I will have lists for a few of the other Dodgers starting pitchers up in the next couple of days.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
1	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
2	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
3	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
4	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
5	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
6	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
7	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
8	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
9	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
10	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
11	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
12	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
13	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
14	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
15	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
16	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
17	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
18	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
19	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
20	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
21	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
22	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
23	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
24	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
25	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
26	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
27	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
28	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
29	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
36	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
37	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
38	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
39	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
40	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
41	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
42	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
43	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
44	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
45	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
46	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
47	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
48	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
49	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
50	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
51	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
52	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
53	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
54	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
55	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
56	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
57	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
58	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
59	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
60	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
61	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
62	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
63	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
64	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
65	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
66	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
67	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
68	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
69	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
70	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
71	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
72	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
73	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
74	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
75	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
76	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
77	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
80	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
81	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
82	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
83	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
84	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
85	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
86	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
87	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
88	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
89	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
90	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
91	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
92	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
93	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
94	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
95	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
96	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
97	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
98	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
105	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
106	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
107	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
108	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
109	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
110	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
111	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
112	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
113	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
114	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
115	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
116	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
117	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
118	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
119	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
120	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
121	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
122	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
125	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
126	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
127	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
128	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
131	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
132	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
133	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
134	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
135	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
136	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
137	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
138	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
139	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
140	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
141	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
142	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
143	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
144	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
145	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
146	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
147	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
148	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
149	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
150	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
151	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
152	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
153	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64

Kershaw Wannabes

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. Note this chart was revised when first brought to my attention that I had only included 2011 data.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
1	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
2	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
3	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
4	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
5	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
6	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
7	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
8	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
9	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
10	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
11	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
12	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
14	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
15	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
16	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
17	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
18	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
19	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
20	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
21	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
22	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
23	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
24	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
25	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
26	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
27	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
28	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
29	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
32	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
33	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
34	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
35	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
36	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
37	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
38	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
39	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
40	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
41	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
42	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
43	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
44	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
45	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
46	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
47	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
48	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
49	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
50	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
51	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
52	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
53	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
54	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
55	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
56	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
57	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
58	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
59	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
60	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
61	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
62	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
63	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
64	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
65	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
66	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
67	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
68	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
69	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
70	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
71	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
72	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
73	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
74	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
75	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
76	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
77	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
80	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
81	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
82	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
83	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
84	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
85	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
86	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
87	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
88	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
89	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
90	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
91	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
92	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
93	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
94	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
95	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
96	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
97	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
98	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
101	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
102	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
105	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
106	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
107	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
108	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
111	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
112	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
113	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
114	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
115	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
116	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
117	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
118	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
119	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
120	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
121	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
125	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
126	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
127	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
128	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
131	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
132	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
133	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
134	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
135	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
136	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
137	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
138	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
139	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
140	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
141	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
142	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
143	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
144	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
145	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
146	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
147	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
148	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
149	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
150	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58

Looking Ahead to 2012

I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

Month	Wins	Losses	WPct
April	13.46	13.54	0.4984
May	14.11	12.89	0.5225
June	13.62	13.38	0.5043
July	13.18	13.82	0.4880
August	13.08	13.92	0.4846
September	12.70	14.30	0.4703
Overall	80.14	81.86	0.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

Name	Wins	Losses	WPct
Kershaw	18.54	14.46	0.5620
Billingsley	15.79	17.22	0.4783
Lilly	15.50	16.50	0.4843
Capuano	15.46	16.54	0.4831
Harang	14.85	17.15	0.4641

Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.

2012 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format

The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home 2430,2012,10,3,LAA,SEA

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2430 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii (comma delimited) file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

How To Handicap Defense In Baseball

Hitting and pitching, they both play a big role in how you should handicap a baseball game. The often forgotten and important piece of the puzzle is defense. Just how much does the removal or addition of a good defensive player effect the likely outcome (think win probability) of a single baseball game?

I am sure there are many ways of solving this problem. The method I am going to use is a theoretical one. First let's take a swag at how many runs per season a good defensive player saves over an average defensive player. I think 20 runs per season is a good conservative number for a good (think Brett Gardner) and a bad one (think Raul Ibanez) costing his team 20 runs per season.

20 runs over a 162 games averages out to around 0.123 runs per game. If we set our run environment to 9 runs per game, which is fairly accurate but the round number makes the math easier, we get a 50/50 game having 4.5 runs for both Team A and Team B. On Vegas with no juice this would be a -100/+100 game on the Money Line (ML). Now let's assume an average defensive player on Team A is replaced with a player who the only difference is, is that he is a +20 (runs saved per season) player. Team A now scores 4.5 runs per 27 outs but Team B now only scores (4.5 - 0.123) 4.377 runs per 27. Using the pythagorean formula for a quick and dirty win probability calculation Team A now has a win probability of 51.3853%. So his glove is worth approximately 1.39% win expectancy. On the Vegas ML the -100/+100 (no juice) line would now look like -106/+106.

This would mean that if we instead put a -20 run defensive player in, instead of the +20 player. We would see Team A get a 48.6147% win probability and be on the other side of the -106/+106 line, for a whopping drop in win expectancy of 2.46% in this example. Of course things are effected a little bit differently based on the run environment and type of pitcher pitching. An infielder in a low run environment game playing behind a ground ball pitcher will have a bigger effect on the game outcome than he would in a game being played in a higher run environment with a strikeout pitcher who sees very few balls put in play.

These are all things to take into consideration and each defensive replacement must be looked at on a case by case basis, but for a rough calculation replacing a great fielder with an average one will cost your team a little over 1% in win probability and replacing a great fielder with a very bad one will cost you around 2.5% in win probability, looking at defense only.