Best Dodgers Lineup

Every season there is much talk about lineups. Which lineup will score the most runs and win the most games. There are many theories about how the batting order should be constructed. Speed and on base guy(s) near the top followed by your best power hitters. I have put this theory to the test using my simulator, which plays 100K games using different lineups to see which one produces the most runs and wins. In this exercise I made the Dodgers the away team, always giving them 9 at bats in every regulation length game. I kept the home team constant, and in this exercise I had the Dodgers facing the Washington Nationals. I had the Nationals throw (LHP) Gio Gonzalez and (RHP) Jordan Zimmerman in an attempt to find the Dodgers best lineup to use against both left handed and right handed pitchers. Of course I did not run through every single permuation of lineup possibilities, but after a while you can easily hone in on the best ones. And without any further ado, here is the Dodgers best lineups vs LHP and RHP. Note that in this exercise, I used the 2012 Zips Projections for all Dodgers hitters.

vs LHP Lineup	vs RHP Lineup
A.J. Ellis	A.J. Ellis
Andre Ethier	Andre Ethier
Matt Kemp	Matt Kemp
Juan Rivera	James Loney
James Loney	Juan Rivera
Juan Uribe	Juan Uribe
Mark Ellis	Mark Ellis
Dee Gordon	Dee Gordon
Pitchers Spot	Pitchers Spot

Notes: Zips loves A.J. Ellis' OBP and hates Dee Gordon's OBP. The simulator is pretty consistent on which lineup it likes the best facing both a LHP or a RHP pitcher with the only difference being the swap of Loney/Rivera in the number four and five holes. Facing a RHP the Dodgers did score slightly more runs with Adam Kennedy playing 2B instead of Mark Ellis, but the runs were more than lost on the defensive side. How much does it hurt the Dodgers batting Gordon and M.Ellis at the top of the lineup as opposed to what the simulator says is the best lineup? Against the LHP around 1 win and against the RHP lineup around 0.15 wins. Probably not enough to get red in the face about, especially against RHP.

www.onlinecasinoclub32.com

Pick Your Poison, A Sad Fan's Guide To The Dodgers Off-Season

Many people have railed against the off-season signings Ned Colletti has made for the Dodgers. Colletti was quick to fill out most of his roster this off-season. And in doing so made a few questionable signings. None of the signings as a single entity really hurt the Dodgers chances, but in aggregate they have possibly kept the Dodgers from making the big splash they need to compete for a playoff chance in the next two years.

Instead of signing the likes of Mark Ellis, Juan Rivera, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Adam Kennedy and Tony Gwynn Jr., the Dodgers could've used in house replacements making close to league minimum like Jerry Sands (LF), Justin Sellers (2B) and Nathan Eovaldi (P) plus probably few other replacement level players or NRIs. The savings many argued would allow the Dodgers to bid on such high profiled sluggers like 1B free agent Prince Fielder and maybe there'd be enough left over to sign Kuroda for a one year $13M deal (or along those lines).

Sure, the short-term money may come close to adding up - but all you are really doing is giving yourself a shot at making a bid for a player like Fielder. There is no gaurantee that you would win the bidding for him. And no gaurantee that he'd even want to come to play for the Dodgers. If he didn't there would be a mad scramble to put together the pieces of a team that would have some reasonable depth like the team currently assembled does. Depth is an important and often overlooked part of a team. The Dodgers as currently constructed have depth, perhaps not assembled in the most financially efficient way - but they have depth.

The Dodgers really have three possible big fish they can land. Two in-house and one in the free agent market. That being Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Prince Fielder. In my opinion there is NO WAY the Dodgers are signing all three to big long-term deals. And there is really no way you can plan for a Prince Fielder short-term deal. Thus if I had to take my choice of two out of three of these players signing long-term with us it has to be Kemp and Kershaw. Kemp has already signed and now Kershaw is headed to arbitration a few months after winning the 2011 Cy Young award. There is a possibility that the Dodgers and Kershaw will use this process to ink out a long-term contract with Kershaw buying out his remaining three years of arbitration and a few of his first free agency years.

Which scenario would you rather have?

Scenario A: Sellers starting 2B, Fielder signed to 8 year deal, Loney traded for scraps, Sands/Gwynn platoon in LF, Kuroda ($13M), Eovaldi 5th starter. With neither Kemp nor Kershaw signed to long term deals.

Scenario B: What has happened so far with Kershaw extended for 6 years at some fair but pretty high amount.

Yes, there are probably other scenarios but none much different than the two above in terms of landfall off-seasons for the Dodgers. And in the end I am not defending all of Colletti's moves, but there has been nothing done this off-season to harm the Dodgers long-term (2+ years) chances of competing. And lastly, one other thing to keep in mind is that the Dodgers are up for sale (finally!!!). McCourt wants to maximize the price he can get for the Dodgers. And in doing so he appears to be making an attempt to limit the risk of the Dodgers ability to compete in the win column in the long-term - thus all the short term non bargain contracts. In other words... be patient and cross your fingers that the new ownership puts people in place that more than half-way know what they are doing.

Looking Ahead to 2012

I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

Month	Wins	Losses	WPct
April	13.46	13.54	0.4984
May	14.11	12.89	0.5225
June	13.62	13.38	0.5043
July	13.18	13.82	0.4880
August	13.08	13.92	0.4846
September	12.70	14.30	0.4703
Overall	80.14	81.86	0.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

Name	Wins	Losses	WPct
Kershaw	18.54	14.46	0.5620
Billingsley	15.79	17.22	0.4783
Lilly	15.50	16.50	0.4843
Capuano	15.46	16.54	0.4831
Harang	14.85	17.15	0.4641

Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.