August 31st Simulations

Down The Stretch ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	W.LeBlanc vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	58.42%	52.06%	LAN 4-2
Blue Jays	Orioles	H.Alvarez vs J.Reyes	Blue Jays	53.38%	41.01%	TBD
Pirates	Astros	J.McDonald vs J.Happ	Pirates	52.72%	48.77%	TBD
Athletics	Indians	R.Harden vs U.Jimenez	Indians	56.62%	61.71%	TBD
WAS	ATL	John Lannan vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	62.38%	TBD
CHN	SF	Rodrigo Lopez vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	69.27%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Chris Volstad vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	62.84%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Dan Haren vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	51.39%	TBD
TB	TEX	James Shields vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	59.83%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Scott Diamond vs Jake Peavy	CHA	TBD	62.72%	TBD
KC	DET	Felipe Paulino vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	60.56%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Phil Hughes vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	57.82%	TBD
STL	MIL	Jake Westbrook vs Randy Wolf	STL	TBD	51.31%	TBD
COL	ARI	Esmil Rogers vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	TBD	50.01%	TBD
PHI	CIN	Cliff Lee vs Dontrelle Willis	PHI	TBD	54.79%	TBD

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August 30th Simulations

Moving On Up In The Standings ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	58.76%	59.77%	LAN 8-5
COL	ARI	Aaron Cook vs Wade Miley	ARI	TBD	51.99%	TBD
FLA	NYN	Javier Vazquez vs Mike Pelfrey	NYN	TBD	57.84%	TBD
WAS	ATL	Livan Hernandez vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	58.96%	TBD
KC	DET	Jeff Francis vs Doug Fister	DET	TBD	66.70%	TBD
STL	MIL	Edwin Jackson vs Shaun Marcum	STL	TBD	51.73%	TBD
MIN	CHA	Anthony Swarzak vs Zach Stewart	CHA	TBD	53.41%	TBD
PIT	HOU	Charlie Morton vs Henry Sosa	PIT	TBD	57.12%	TBD
LAA	SEA	Jerome Williams vs Anthony Vasquez	SEA	TBD	50.47%	TBD
PHI	CIN	Roy Halladay vs Bronson Arroyo	PHI	TBD	58.91%	TBD
CHN	SF	Matt Garza vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	55.36%	TBD
TB	TEX	Jeremy Hellickson vs Scott Feldman	TEX	TBD	59.59%	TBD
OAK	CLE	Trevor Cahill vs Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	TBD	52.94%	TBD
NYA	BOS	C.C. Sabathia vs John Lackey	NYA	TBD	54.47%	TBD
TOR	BAL	Brett Cecil vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	58.43%	TBD

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August 29th Simulations

Pitchers Duel At The OK Ravine ...

Dodgers Game Notes: Today's Dodgers game will likely be a very low scoring affair (Latos vs Kershaw). The Vegas Run Total line is 5-1/2 runs with -125 juice on the Over portion, which amounts to a non-juice over/under of right around 5.9 runs. The simulator has the over/under at 6.10 runs. When simulated 100K times 49.78% of the time the game went Over, which is basically a 50/50 split. Historically, by Vegas standards today's game is the 12th lowest Over/Under of the season. Amazingly this ranks tied for 4th, for the lowest Over/Under in a Kershaw pitched game (Weaver, Cain, Luebke, Chacin). The top three most likely scores have the Dodgers winning 3-2, 2-1, 1-0, with the fourth most likely score a Padres 2-1 victory.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	61.01%	59.41%	LAN 4-1
Marlins	Mets	R.Nolasco vs D.Gee	Mets	53.60%	49.61%	TBD
Marlins	Mets	A.Sanchez vs R.Dickey	Mets	55.26%	52.80%	TBD
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs J.Guthrie	Yankees	TBD	59.81%	TBD
Pirates	Astros	R.Ohlendorf vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	55.65%	56.73%	TBD
Rockies	DBacks	A.White vs D.Hudson	DBacks	60.55%	56.72%	TBD
Athletics	Indians	B.McCarthy vs D.Huff	Indians	54.44%	53.27%	TBD
Rays	Blue Jays	W.Davis vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	59.27%	57.77%	TBD
Phillies	Reds	C.Hamels vs H.Bailey	Phillies	58.25%	55.27%	TBD
Twins	White Sox	K.Slowey vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	65.22%	56.80%	TBD
Cubs	Giants	R.Wells vs T.Lincecum	Giants	69.42%	68.88%	TBD
Angels	Mariners	J.Pineiro vs B.Beavan	Angels	54.02%	50.33%	TBD
Royals	Tigers	L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	61.69%	66.16%	TBD

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August 27th Simulations

Dodgers In Midst Of 22 Game Winning Streak? ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	K.Millwood vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.62%	53.65%	LAN 7-6
DET	MIN	Justin Verlander vs Carl Pavano	DET	TBD	59.428	TBD
LAA	TEX	Ervin Santana vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	69.367	TBD
KC	CLE	Danny Duffy vs Fausto Carmona	CLE	TBD	60.879	TBD
CHA	SEA	John Danks vs Michael Pineda	SEA	TBD	50.997	TBD
FLA	PHI	Anibal Sanchez vs Roy Halladay	PHI	TBD	69.244	TBD
PIT	STL	Jeff Karstens vs Chris Carpenter	STL	TBD	72.301	TBD
OAK	BOS	Guillermo Moscoso vs Jon Lester	BOS	TBD	68.943	TBD
OAK	BOS	Graham Godfrey vs Erik Bedard	BOS	TBD	71.096	TBD
SD	ARI	Aaron Harang vs Joe Saunders	ARI	TBD	54.897	TBD
CHN	MIL	Ryan Dempster vs Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	TBD	58.146	TBD
WAS	CIN	Ross Detwiler vs Mike Leake	CIN	TBD	61.581	TBD
TB	TOR	Jeff Niemann vs Luis Perez	TB	TBD	51.461	TBD
HOU	SF	Brett Myers vs Eric Surkamp	SF	TBD	58.031	TBD

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August 26th Simulations

Ted Lilly Tries To Keep Dodgers Pulse Alive ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rockies	Dodgers	E.Rogers vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	56.04%	43.55%	LAN 6-1
Cubs	Brewers	R.Lopez vs R.Wolf	Brewers	63.44%	60.16%	MIL 5-2
FLA	PHI	Clay Hensley vs Roy Oswalt	PHI	TBD	69.299	TBD
LAA	TEX	Dan Haren vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	60.838	TBD
TB	TOR	James Shields vs Henderson Alvarez	TB	TBD	51.345	TBD
Astros	Giants	J.Happ vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	69.23%	69.27%	TBD
Nationals	Reds	C.Wang vs D.Willis	Reds	57.54%	64.68%	TBD
ATL	NYN	Tim Hudson vs Chris Capuano	ATL	TBD	52.914	TBD
OAK	BOS	Gio Gonzalez vs Tim Wakefield	BOS	TBD	54.106	TBD
DET	MIN	Rick Porcello vs Scott Diamond	DET	TBD	57.133	TBD
SD	ARI	Wade LeBlanc vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	TBD	61.173	TBD
KC	CLE	Felipe Paulino vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	TBD	59.245	TBD
NYA	BAL	A.J. Burnett vs Tommy Hunter	NYA	TBD	50.942	TBD
PIT	STL	James McDonald vs Jake Westbrook	STL	TBD	67.049	TBD
CHA	SEA	Jake Peavy vs Charles Furbush	CHA	TBD	55.534	TBD

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August 25th Simulations

Dodgers Rest After Ripping Apart Cardinals ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
PIT	STL	Charlie Morton vs Edwin Jackson	STL	TBD	66.45%	TBD
DET	TB	Doug Fister vs Jeremy Hellickson	DET	TBD	54.06%	TBD
BOS	TEX	Andrew Miller vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	60.95%	TBD
KC	TOR	Jeff Francis vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	57.11%	TBD
OAK	NYA	Rich Harden vs Phil Hughes	NYA	TBD	66.93%	TBD
ARI	WAS	Wade Miley vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	53.97%	TBD
HOU	SF	Henry Sosa vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	66.02%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Brandon Beachy vs Matt Garza	CHN	TBD	52.46%	TBD
BAL	MIN	Jo-Jo Reyes vs Francisco Liriano	MIN	TBD	55.54%	TBD

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August 21st Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Chop Some Millwood ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs K.Millwood	Rockies	50.62%	59.08%	COL 5-3
ARI	ATL	Josh Collmenter vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	58.393	TBD
PHI	WAS	Roy Halladay vs Chien-Ming Wang	PHI	TBD	64.818	TBD
SEA	TB	Michael Pineda vs James Shields	TB	TBD	60.075	TBD
SF	HOU	Dan Runzler vs Henry Sosa	SF	TBD	51.932	TBD
BOS	KC	Jon Lester vs Danny Duffy	BOS	TBD	63.213	TBD
TEX	CHA	Derek Holland vs Gavin Floyd	TEX	TBD	52.65	TBD
CLE	DET	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	55.275	TBD
STL	CHN	Jake Westbrook vs Rodrigo Lopez	STL	TBD	57.973	TBD
CIN	PIT	Mike Leake vs James McDonald	CIN	TBD	53.877	TBD
FLA	SD	Anibal Sanchez vs Cory Luebke	SD	TBD	58.559	TBD
MIL	NYN	Yovanni Gallardo vs R.A. Dickey	MIL	TBD	51.624	TBD
BAL	LAA	Brian Matusz vs Jerome Williams	BAL	TBD	50.361	TBD
TOR	OAK	Luis Perez vs Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	TBD	55.123	TBD
NYA	MIN	Ivan Nova vs Nick Blackburn	NYA	TBD	54.983	TBD

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August 20th Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Make Mess of Mr. Rogers Neighborhood ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	T.Lilly vs E.Rogers	Rockies	53.81%	66.85%	COL 7-6
Brewers	Mets	R.Wolf vs C.Capuano	Brewers	53.38%	45.22%	TBD
Marlins	Padres	C.Hensley vs A.Harang	Padres	TBD	59.40%	TBD
Indians	Tigers	D.Huff vs D.Fister	Tigers	TBD	63.26%	TBD
Rangers	White Sox	A.Ogando vs J.Danks	Rangers	TBD	55.12%	TBD
Mariners	Rays	C.Furbush vs J.Hellickson	Rays	TBD	63.09%	TBD
Giants	Astros	M.Bumgarner vs J.Lyles	Giants	TBD	63.76%	TBD
Yankees	Twins	A.Burnett vs F.Liriano	Twins	TBD	51.35%	TBD
Blue Jays	Athletics	H.Alvarez vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	TBD	62.91%	TBD
Orioles	Angels	T.Hunter vs J.Pineiro	Orioles	TBD	52.34%	TBD
DBacks	Braves	W.Miley vs B.Beachy	Braves	TBD	60.98%	TBD
Red Sox	Royals	T.Wakefield vs F.Paulino	Red Sox	TBD	52.32%	TBD
Phillies	Nationals	K.Kendrick vs J.Lannan	Nationals	TBD	54.01%	TBD
Reds	Pirates	D.Willis vs C.Morton	Pirates	TBD	52.13%	TBD
Cardinals	Cubs	E.Jackson vs M.Garza	Cardinals	TBD	52.17%	TBD

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August 19th Simulations

Battle de Third Place ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	H.Kuroda vs J.Hammel	Rockies	50.86%	59.71%	LAN 8-2
Reds	Pirates	H.Bailey vs K.Correia	Reds	55.85%	55.33%	TBD
DBacks	Braves	D.Hudson vs D.Lowe	Braves	52.27%	54.34%	TBD
Cardinals	Cubs	J.Garcia vs R.Wells	Cardinals	57.89%	65.07%	TBD
Mariners	Rays	F.Hernandez vs W.Davis	Mariners	52.94%	45.97%	TBD
Phillies	Nationals	R.Oswalt vs L.Hernandez	Phillies	57.54%	52.41%	TBD
Blue Jays	Athletics	B.Cecil vs R.Harden	Athletics	51.10%	52.73%	TBD
Giants	Astros	R.Vogelsong vs W.Rodriguez	Giants	56.99%	52.56%	TBD
Brewers	Mets	S.Marcum vs M.Pelfrey	Brewers	57.54%	52.74%	TBD
Indians	Tigers	J.Tomlin vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	56.62%	61.18%	TBD
Marlins	Padres	C.Volstad vs W.LeBlanc	Padres	56.42%	56.56%	TBD
Orioles	Angels	J.Reyes vs D.Haren	Angels	69.23%	59.98%	TBD
Rangers	White Sox	M.Harrison vs J.Peavy	White Sox	51.57%	46.80%	TBD
Yankees	Twins	P.Hughes vs K.Slowey	Yankees	61.01%	52.12%	TBD
Red Sox	Royals	A.Miller vs J.Francis	Red Sox	54.65%	54.17%	TBD

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August 18th Simulations

Can Kershaw Overcome Pathetic Offense ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	C.Kershaw vs M.Estrada	Dodgers	52.72%	50.47%	LAN 5-1
Marlins	Padres	J.Vazquez vs T.Stauffer	Padres	57.17%	55.50%	TBD
DBacks	Phillies	I.Kennedy vs V.Worley	Phillies	58.93%	60.01%	TBD
Indians	White Sox	J.Masterson vs P.Humber	Indians	54.65%	55.49%	TBD
Rangers	Angels	C.Lewis vs J.Weaver	Angels	57.54%	54.61%	TBD
Giants	Braves	T.Lincecum vs M.Minor	Giants	55.85%	45.62%	TBD
Blue Jays	Athletics	R.Romero vs T.Cahill	Blue Jays	52.72%	45.06%	TBD
Yankees	Twins	C.Sabathia vs B.Duensing	Yankees	66.10%	57.55%	TBD
Reds	Nationals	B.Arroyo vs J.Zimmerman	Nationals	56.24%	62.31%	TBD
Red Sox	Royals	J.Beckett vs L.Hochevar	Red Sox	64.22%	63.38%	TBD

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August 17th Simulations

Eovaldi Given Tough Task ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	N.Eovaldi vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	65.46%	69.19%	MIL 3-1
STL	PIT	Kyle Lohse vs Paul Maholm	STL	TBD	55.054	STL 7-2
TOR	SEA	Brandon Morrow vs Blake Beavan	TOR	TBD	57.995	TBD
NYA	KC	Bartolo Colon vs Bruce Chen	NYA	TBD	59.752	TBD
SF	ATL	Matt Cain vs Jair Jurrjens	ATL	TBD	51.988	TBD
NYN	SD	Dillon Gee vs Mat Latos	SD	TBD	61.198	TBD
TB	BOS	David Price vs John Lackey	BOS	TBD	58.813	TBD
FLA	COL	Ricky Nolasco vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	61.644	TBD
ARI	PHI	Joe Saunders vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	70.064	TBD
BAL	OAK	Alfredo Simon vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	59.63	TBD
CIN	WAS	Johnny Cueto vs Ross Detwiler	CIN	TBD	54.064	TBD
CHN	HOU	Casey Coleman vs Bud Norris	HOU	TBD	53.405	TBD
CLE	CHA	Fausto Carmona vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	54.314	TBD
MIN	DET	Carl Pavano vs Brad Penny	DET	TBD	53.365	TBD
TEX	LAA	C.J. Wilson vs Ervin Santana	TEX	TBD	57.15	TBD

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August 16th Simulations

Dodgers Triple Their Displeasure ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	C.Billingsley vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	62.62%	60.04%	MIL 2-1
TB	BOS	James Shields vs Jon Lester	BOS	TBD	65.308	BOS 3-1
TB	BOS	Jeff Niemann vs Erik Bedard	BOS	TBD	66.066	TBD
FLA	COL	Anibal Sanchez vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	63.595	TBD
CHN	HOU	Ryan Dempster vs Brett Myers	CHN	TBD	57.564	TBD
CIN	WAS	Mike Leake vs Chien-Ming Wang	CIN	TBD	52.676	TBD
ARI	PHI	Josh Collmenter vs Roy Halladay	PHI	TBD	67.094	TBD
MIN	DET	Nick Blackburn vs Justin Verlander	DET	TBD	68.168	TBD
STL	PIT	Chris Carpenter vs Jeff Karstens	STL	TBD	65.703	TBD
CLE	CHA	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	50.486	TBD
NYA	KC	Ivan Nova vs Danny Duffy	NYA	TBD	57.001	TBD
TEX	LAA	Derek Holland vs Tyler Chatwood	TEX	TBD	55.761	TBD
SF	ATL	Jonathan Sanchez vs Randall Delgado	ATL	TBD	55.936	TBD
NYN	SD	John Niese vs Cory Luebke	SD	TBD	55.887	TBD
TOR	SEA	Brad Mills vs Jason Vargas	SEA	TBD	51.496	TBD
BAL	OAK	Brian Matusz vs Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	TBD	53.372	TBD

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August 15th Simulations

The Ides of August ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Brewers	T.Lilly vs R.Wolf	Brewers	61.17%	61.19%	MIL 3-0
Blue Jays	Mariners	H.Alvarez vs M.Pineda	Mariners	58.07%	57.49%	SEA 6-5
STL	PIT	Jake Westbrook vs James McDonald	STL	TBD	59.71%	TBD
BAL	OAK	Tommy Hunter vs Gio Gonzalez	OAK	TBD	59.60%	TBD
SF	ATL	Madison Bumgarner vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	50.86%	TBD
FLA	COL	Clay Hensley vs Kevin Millwood	COL	TBD	66.41%	TBD
NYA	KC	A.J. Burnett vs Felipe Paulino	KC	TBD	51.71%	TBD
TEX	LAA	Alexi Ogando vs Garrett Richards	TEX	TBD	60.22%	TBD
NYN	SD	R.A. Dickey vs Aaron Harang	SD	TBD	52.17%	TBD
MIN	DET	Francisco Liriano vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	57.57%	TBD
CHN	HOU	Rodrigo Lopez vs Henry Sosa	CHN	TBD	53.53%	TBD

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August 14th Simulations

Dodgers Look To Sweep Astros ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Dodgers	J.Lyles vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	64.85%	61.78%	LAN 7-0
COL	STL	Esmil Rogers vs Edwin Jackson	STL	TBD	59.85%	TBD
SF	FLA	Ryan Vogelsong vs Chris Volstad	SF	TBD	53.49%	TBD
LAA	TOR	Dan Haren vs Brett Cecil	LAA	TBD	53.08%	TBD
BOS	SEA	Tim Wakefield vs Charles Furbush	BOS	TBD	58.28%	TBD
PIT	MIL	Charlie Morton vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	TBD	60.66%	TBD
KC	CHA	Jeff Francis vs John Danks	CHA	TBD	57.49%	TBD
Nationals	Phillies	C.Wang vs R.Halladay	Phillies	73.61%	75.04%	TBD
MIN	CLE	Kevin Slowey vs David Huff	CLE	TBD	52.98%	TBD
TEX	OAK	Matt Harrison vs Rich Harden	TEX	TBD	55.68%	TBD
NYN	ARI	Chris Capuano vs Jason Marquis	ARI	TBD	57.39%	TBD
TB	NYA	James Shields vs A.J. Burnett	NYA	TBD	58.55%	TBD
SD	CIN	Wade LeBlanc vs Dontrelle Willis	CIN	TBD	61.48%	TBD
CHN	ATL	Matt Garza vs Brandon Beachy	ATL	TBD	57.54%	TBD
DET	BAL	Doug Fister vs Jo-Jo Reyes	DET	TBD	56.89%	TBD

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August 13th Simulations

The Kershaw, The Bad and The Ugly ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Dodgers	W.Rodriguez vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	67.21%	63.90%	LAN 6-1
Twins	Indians	Brian Duensing vs Josh Tomlin	Twins	57.54%	50.67%	TBD
Nationals	Phillies	John Lannan vs Roy Oswalt	Phillies	67.00%	61.65%	TBD
Padres	Reds	Tim Stauffer vs Homer Bailey	Reds	55.06%	57.92%	TBD
Mets	DBacks	Mike Pelfrey vs Daniel Hudson	DBacks	61.54%	66.85%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	Luke Hochevar vs Jake Peavy	White Sox	59.76%	66.16%	TBD
Rangers	Athletics	C.Lewis vs T.Cahill	Rangers	51.81%	48.21%	TBD
Rockies	Cardinals	Jason Hammel vs Jaime Garcia	Cardinals	63.17%	66.99%	TBD
Red Sox	Mariners	Josh Beckett vs Felx Hernandez	Red Sox	57.54%	57.34%	TBD
Cubs	Braves	Randy Wells vs Derek Lowe	Braves	62.62%	63.30%	TBD
Pirates	Brewers	Kevin Correia vs Marco Estrada	Brewers	60.86%	66.16%	TBD
Giants	Marlins	Tim Lincecum vs Javier Vazquez	Giants	57.17%	57.13%	TBD
Tigers	Orioles	Max Scherzer vs Jeremy Guthrie	Tigers	55.06%	52.23%	TBD
Angels	Blue Jays	Jered Weaver vs Ricky Romero	Angels	52.94%	50.86%	TBD
Rays	Yankees	J.Hellickson vs P.Hughes	Yankees	56.99%	63.65%	TBD

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August 12th Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Be A Pain In The Astros ...

HummaKavula breaks down the Astros/Dodgers series in a masterful poem over at TBLA.

Oh, there’s a chance, I’ll accept,
but unlikely the Dodgers get swept.
It’s most likely you’ll see
them take two of three
In the battle of who’s more inept.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Astros	Dodgers	B.Norris vs N.Eovaldi	Dodgers	TBD	57.11%	LAN 1-0
Angels	Blue Jays	E.Santana vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	TBD	59.12%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	B.Chen vs Z.Stewart	White Sox	TBD	59.64%	TBD
Tigers	Orioles	B.Penny vs A.Simon	Orioles	TBD	50.76%	TBD
Giants	Marlins	M.Cain vs R.Nolasco	Giants	TBD	52.35%	TBD
Cubs	Braves	C.Zambrano vs M.Minor	Braves	TBD	59.86%	TBD
Red Sox	Mariners	J.Lackey vs B.Beavan	Red Sox	TBD	59.66%	TBD
Rangers	Athletics	C.Wilson vs B.McCarthy	Rangers	TBD	54.21%	TBD
Rays	Yankees	D.Price vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	TBD	68.13%	TBD
Padres	Reds	M.Latos vs B.Arroyo	Reds	TBD	51.72%	TBD
Twins	Indians	C.Pavano vs J.Masterson	Indians	TBD	58.06%	TBD
Mets	DBacks	D.Gee vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	TBD	64.52%	TBD
Nationals	Phillies	L.Hernandez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	TBD	69.22%	TBD
Rockies	Cardinals	A.Cook vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	TBD	58.89%	TBD
Pirates	Brewers	P.Maholm vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	TBD	63.95%	TBD

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August 11th Simulations

Phils Bad To Get Swept ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Brewers	Cardinals	Y.Gallardo vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	TBD	56.97%	TBD
Tigers	Indians	J.Verlander vs F.Carmona	Tigers	TBD	60.31%	TBD
White Sox	Orioles	M.Buehrle vs C.Tillman	Orioles	TBD	54.98%	TBD
Angels	Yankees	T.Chatwood vs B.Colon	Yankees	TBD	67.69%	NYA 6-5
Padres	Mets	C.Luebke vs J.Niese	Mets	TBD	54.70%	SD 3-2
Astros	DBacks	B.Myers vs J.Saunders	DBacks	TBD	61.60%	TBD
Rockies	Reds	J.Chacin vs J.Cueto	Reds	TBD	54.55%	CIN 2-1
Athletics	Blue Jays	G.Moscoso vs B.Mills	Blue Jays	TBD	55.93%	OAK 10-3
Royals	Rays	D.Duffy vs J.Niemann	Rays	TBD	64.54%	TB 4-1
Nationals	Cubs	J.Zimmerman vs R.Dempster	Cubs	TBD	54.93%	CHN 4-3

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August 10th Simulations

Dodgers Hope To Steal A House Money Game ...

Phillies vs Dodgers
Vance Worley vs Chad Billingsley
Favorite: Phillies	ML: -124 +119, 54.85%	Simulator: 51.74%
Vegas Over/Under: 7.0	Over -105	Under -105
Simulator Over/Under: 7.05	Over: 45.53%	Under: 54.47%	Result: OVER
Final Score: #112 PHI 9-8

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Giants	J.Karstens vs J.Sanchez	Giants	TBD	64.66%	PIT 9-2
DET	CLE	Rick Porcello vs Ubaldo Jimenez	CLE	TBD	53.679	TBD
ATL	FLA	Tim Hudson vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	TBD	55.047	TBD
KC	TB	Felipe Paulino vs Wade Davis	TB	TBD	52.549	TBD
CHA	BAL	Phil Humber vs Tommy Hunter	BAL	TBD	51.38	TBD
HOU	ARI	Wandy Rodriguez vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	TBD	64.177	TBD
BOS	MIN	Jon Lester vs Nick Blackburn	BOS	TBD	59.394	TBD
MIL	STL	Randy Wolf vs Jake Westbrook	STL	TBD	62.488	TBD
SD	NYN	Aaron Harang vs R.A. Dickey	NYN	TBD	56.524	TBD
SEA	TEX	Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	66.568	TBD
WAS	CHN	Ross Detwiler vs Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	TBD	54.652	TBD
LAA	NYA	Garrett Richards vs Ivan Nova	NYA	TBD	68.512	TBD
OAK	TOR	Gio Gonzalez vs Henderson Alvarez	OAK	TBD	52.68	TBD
COL	CIN	Kevin Millwood vs Mike Leake	CIN	TBD	56.615	TBD

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Dodger underDOGS

I was recently asked how Tuesday's Dodgers game ranked as far as how big of an underdog the Dodgers were in all of their 2011 games to this date. One would think that the Cliff Lee / Ted Lilly matchup would see the Dodgers as a rather large underdog compared to all the previous games. The one thing working in the Dodgers favor is that they are playing at home. Here is the top 10 list.

Biggest Underdogs
Rank	Date	Teams	Pitching Matchup	Dodgers Win%	Result
1	June 12th	Dodgers vs Rockies	De La Rosa vs Jimenez	34.19%	LAN 10-8
2	June 6th	Dodgers vs Phillies	Lilly vs Lee	35.78%	PHI 3-1
3	June 8th	Dodgers vs Phillies	Kuroda vs Hamels	36.17%	PHI 2-0
4	June 7th	Dodgers vs Phillies	De La Rosa vs Oswalt	37.11%	LAN 6-2
5	August 9th	Phillies vs Dodgers	Lee vs Lilly	37.52%	TBD
6	April 12th	Dodgers vs Giants	Billingsley vs Lincecum	37.95%	SF 5-4
7	August 8th	Phillies vs Dodgers	Halladay vs Kuroda	38.99%	PHI 5-3
8	July 17th	Dodgers vs Diamondbacks	Lilly vs Hudson	39.84%	ARI 4-1
9	May 21st	Dodgers vs White Sox	Garland vs Buehrle	40.49%	CHA 9-2
10	June 11th	Dodgers vs Rockies	Lilly vs Hammel	40.82%	LAN 11-7

As the chart shows, today's game ranks 5th in terms of lowest Vegas win probability for a Dodgers game this season. The game does however rank first when only taking home games into account. And last nights game (Halladay vs Kuroda) ranks second for home games.

August 9th Simulations

One Of These Things Doesn't Belong With The Other (Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly) ...

Phillies vs Dodgers
Cliff Lee vs Ted Lilly
Favorite: Phillies	ML: -170 +163, 62.48%	Simulator: 64.43%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.5	Over +110	Under -120
Simulator Over/Under: 7.30	Over: 54.65%	Under: 45.35%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #4 PHI 2-1

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
SD	NYN	Wade LeBlanc vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	59.877	TBD
CHA	BAL	Gavin Floyd vs Jo-Jo Reyes	BAL	TBD	54.234	TBD
WAS	CHN	Ross Detwiler vs Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	TBD	54.482	TBD
KC	TB	Jeff Francis vs James Shields	TB	TBD	59.571	TBD
PIT	SF	James McDonald vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	71.006	TBD
LAA	NYA	Dan Haren vs A.J. Burnett	NYA	TBD	55.868	TBD
COL	CIN	Esmil Rogers vs Dontrelle Willis	CIN	TBD	50.929	TBD
SEA	TEX	Michael Pineda vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	64.797	TBD
DET	CLE	Doug Fister vs Justin Masterson	CLE	TBD	53.247	TBD
HOU	ARI	Jordan Lyles vs Jason Marquis	ARI	TBD	66.976	TBD
ATL	FLA	Brandon Beachy vs Clay Hensley	ATL	TBD	51.435	TBD
BOS	MIN	Erik Bedard vs Francisco Liriano	BOS	TBD	53.634	TBD
MIL	STL	Shaun Marcum vs Edwin Jackson	STL	TBD	63.942	TBD
OAK	TOR	Rich Harden vs Brett Cecil	TOR	TBD	57.668	TBD

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August 8th Simulations

Putrid vs Goliath ...

Phillies vs Dodgers
Roy Halladay vs Hiroki Kuroda
Favorite: Phillies	ML: -159 +154, 61.01%	Simulator: 60.79%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.0	Over -102	Under -108
Simulator Over/Under: 6.63	Over: 50.96%	Under: 49.04%	Result: OVER
Final Score: #21 PHI 5-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Giants	C.Morton vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	62.76%	61.56%	TBD
Red Sox	Twins	T.Wakefield vs S.Baker	Red Sox	54.22%	43.51%	TBD
Astros	DBacks	W.Rodriguez vs D.Hudson	DBacks	62.89%	67.31%	TBD
Nationals	Cubs	C.Wang vs M.Garza	Cubs	64.22%	64.55%	TBD
Braves	Marlins	D.Lowe vs B.Hand	Braves	52.04%	52.11%	TBD
Padres	Mets	T.Stauffer vs M.Pelfrey	Padres	50.62%	50.96%	TBD
Royals	Rays	L.Hochevar vs J.Hellickson	Rays	61.69%	60.48%	TBD
Rockies	Reds	J.Hammel vs H.Bailey	Reds	53.60%	53.63%	TBD
Mariners	Rangers	C.Furbush vs M.Harrison	Rangers	68.05%	69.58%	TBD
White Sox	Orioles	J.Danks vs J.Guthrie	White Sox	53.16%	46.39%	TBD

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August 7th Simulations

Sweep Time ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs I.Kennedy	DBacks	51.22%	53.66%	ARI 4-3
CIN	CHN	Bronson Arroyo vs Randy Wells	CHN	TBD	52.791	TBD
CHA	MIN	Jake Peavy vs Brian Duensing	MIN	TBD	53.349	TBD
MIL	HOU	Zach Greinke vs Bud Norris	MIL	TBD	58.24	TBD
CLE	TEX	Josh Tomlin vs Colby Lewis	TEX	TBD	60.331	TBD
NYA	BOS	Freddy Garcia vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	57.301	TBD
DET	KC	Max Scherzer vs Bruce Chen	DET	TBD	57.158	TBD
OAK	TB	Trevor Cahill vs David Price	TB	TBD	59.044	TBD
SD	PIT	Mat Latos vs Kevin Correia	SD	TBD	54.809	TBD
STL	FLA	Jaime Garcia vs Javier Vazquez	STL	TBD	60.715	TBD
SEA	LAA	Felx Hernandez vs Ervin Santana	LAA	TBD	55.804	TBD
PHI	SF	Roy Oswalt vs Tim Lincecum	SF	TBD	57.818	TBD
TOR	BAL	Ricky Romero vs Alfredo Simon	BAL	TBD	51.046	TBD
ATL	NYN	Mike Minor vs Dillon Gee	NYN	TBD	55.991	TBD
WAS	COL	John Lannan vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	57.04	TBD

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August 6th Simulations

Captain EO Debuts ...

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Nathan Eovaldi vs Joe Saunders
Favorite: Diamondbacks	ML: -145 +135, 58.33%	Simulator: 59.30%
Vegas Over/Under: 9.0	Over -120	Under +110
Simulator Over/Under: 9.95	Over: 54.51%	Under: 45.49%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #13 LAN 5-3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Marlins	C.Carpenter vs R.Nolasco	Cardinals	55.46%	54.40%	TBD
WAS	COL	Livan Hernandez vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	59.861	TBD
CIN	CHN	Johnny Cueto vs Carlos Zambrano	CIN	TBD	51.521	TBD
PHI	SF	Cole Hamels vs Matt Cain	PHI	TBD	50.115	TBD
NYA	BOS	C.C. Sabathia vs John Lackey	NYA	TBD	55.417	TBD
ATL	NYN	Tommy Hanson vs John Niese	NYN	TBD	58.359	TBD
MIL	HOU	Chris Narveson vs Brett Myers	MIL	TBD	55.844	TBD
TOR	BAL	Brandon Morrow vs Chris Tillman	TOR	TBD	50.809	TBD
OAK	TB	Brandon McCarthy vs Alex Cobb	TB	TBD	53.47	TBD
SEA	LAA	Blake Beavan vs Tyler Chatwood	LAA	TBD	59.062	TBD
SD	PIT	Cory Luebke vs Paul Maholm	PIT	TBD	50.118	TBD
CLE	TEX	Fausto Carmona vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	71.609	TBD
CHA	MIN	Zach Stewart vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	57.53	TBD
DET	KC	Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy	DET	TBD	62.118	TBD

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August 5th Simulations

Last Chance? Or Pipe Dream?? ...

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks
Chad Billingsley vs Josh Collmenter
Favorite: Diamondbacks	ML: -135 +130, 56.99%	Simulator: 58.17%
Vegas Over/Under: 8.5	Over -116	Under +106
Simulator Over/Under: 8.71	Over: 48.54%	Under: 51.46%	Result: OVER
Final Score: #42 LAN 7-4

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Athletics	Rays	G.Moscoso vs J.Niemann	Rays	62.19%	62.38%	TB 8-4
Phillies	Giants	V.Worley vs J.Sanchez	Phillies	53.16%	48.23%	PHI 9-2
Braves	Mets	T.Hudson vs R.Dickey	Braves	53.81%	47.58%	ATL 4-1
Yankees	Red Sox	B.Colon vs J.Lester	Red Sox	60.40%	58.37%	NYA 3-2
Indians	Rangers	U.Jimenez vs D.Holland	Rangers	55.65%	60.44%	TEX 9-8
Tigers	Royals	R.Porcello vs F.Paulino	Tigers	51.34%	48.03%	DET 4-3
Mariners	Angels	J.Vargas vs J.Weaver	Angels	70.59%	65.21%	LAA 1-0
Cardinals	Marlins	J.Westbrook vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	54.65%	53.46%	STL 3-2
Reds	Cubs	M.Leake vs R.Dempster	Reds	52.72%	43.28%	CHN 4-3
White Sox	Twins	M.Buehrle vs N.Blackburn	White Sox	51.34%	45.63%	CHA 5-3
Nationals	Rockies	J.Zimmerman vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	55.06%	57.83%	WAS 5-3
Blue Jays	Orioles	B.Mills vs T.Hunter	Blue Jays	51.81%	42.24%	TOR 5-4
Brewers	Astros	Y.Gallardo vs J.Happ	Brewers	66.67%	58.06%	MIL 8-1
Padres	Pirates	A.Harang vs J.Karstens	Pirates	58.42%	51.89%	SD 15-5

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August 4th Simulations

Spoiler Weekend ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Twins	Angels	F.Liriano vs T.Chatwood	Twins	TBD	51.61%	LAA 7-1
Indians	Red Sox	J.Masterson vs E.Bedard	Red Sox	61.90%	60.58%	CLE 7-3
Cubs	Pirates	R.Lopez vs J.McDonald	Pirates	57.54%	58.16%	CHN 7-6
Orioles	Royals	Z.Britton vs J.Francis	Royals	56.04%	50.47%	KC 9-4
Nationals	Rockies	R.Detwiler vs E.Rogers	Rockies	57.36%	61.43%	COL 6-3
Rangers	Tigers	A.Ogando vs B.Penny	Rangers	55.85%	53.82%	TEX 5-2
Cardinals	Marlins	K.Lohse vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	TBD	52.91%	STL 7-4
Phillies	Giants	C.Lee vs M.Bumgarner	Phillies	56.99%	46.40%	PHI 3-0
Yankees	White Sox	I.Nova vs P.Humber	Yankees	52.27%	49.69%	NYA 7-2
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs W.Davis	Rays	54.44%	52.70%	TB 7-6

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August 3rd Simulations

Kuroda Eats Padres Alive ...

Dodgers vs Padres
Favorite: Padres	ML: -119 +114 53.81%	Simulator: 60.14%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.5	Over +105	Under -115
Simulator Over/Under: 6.76	Over: 48.57%	Under: 51.43%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #14 SD 3-0

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Braves	Nationals	B.Beachy vs C.Wang	Braves	59.60%	53.41%	ATL 6-4
PHI	COL	Roy Halladay vs Jason Hammel	PHI	TBD	58.181	PHI 8-6
CHN	PIT	Matt Garza vs Charlie Morton	PIT	TBD	51.196	CHN 1-0
NYA	CHA	A.J. Burnett vs Gavin Floyd	CHA	TBD	50.615	NYA 18-7
CIN	HOU	Dontrelle Willis vs Jordan Lyles	CIN	TBD	52.192	HOU 5-4
OAK	SEA	Gio Gonzalez vs Charles Furbush	OAK	TBD	56.584	SEA 7-4
BAL	KC	Jeremy Guthrie vs Luke Hochevar	BAL	TBD	52.023	KC 6-2
ARI	SF	Jason Marquis vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	57.879	SF 8-1
FLA	NYN	Clay Hensley vs Dillon Gee	NYN	TBD	59.729	Ppd
CLE	BOS	Carlos Carrasco vs Tim Wakefield	BOS	TBD	59.998	BOS 4-3
TEX	DET	Matt Harrison vs Doug Fister	DET	TBD	55.098	DET 5-4
TOR	TB	Carlos Villanueva vs James Shields	TB	TBD	57.799	TB 9-1
MIN	LAA	Scott Baker vs Joel Pineiro	MIN	TBD	54.933	MIN 11-4
STL	MIL	Edwin Jackson vs Randy Wolf	STL	TBD	57.658	MIL 10-5

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August 2nd Simulations

Season From Hell ...

Dodgers vs Padres
Favorite: Padres	ML: -107 +102 51.10%	Simulator: 57.39%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.0	Over -115	Under +105
Simulator Over/Under: 6.49	Over: 49.42%	Under: 50.58%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #5 LAN 1-0

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
MIN	LAA	Brian Duensing vs Ervin Santana	LAA	TBD	54.462	TBD
FLA	NYN	Brad Hand vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	63.646	TBD
OAK	SEA	Rich Harden vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	58.765	TBD
TEX	DET	Colby Lewis vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	55.987	TBD
STL	MIL	Jaime Garcia vs Shaun Marcum	STL	TBD	58.131	TBD
BAL	KC	Alfredo Simon vs Bruce Chen	BAL	TBD	52.381	TBD
CHN	PIT	Randy Wells vs Kevin Correia	PIT	TBD	55.685	TBD
NYA	CHA	Phil Hughes vs John Danks	CHA	TBD	50.018	TBD
ARI	SF	Daniel Hudson vs Tim Lincecum	SF	TBD	60.44	TBD
CIN	HOU	Homer Bailey vs Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	TBD	50.803	TBD
CLE	BOS	David Huff vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	71.642	TBD
ATL	WAS	Derek Lowe vs John Lannan	ATL	TBD	50.589	TBD
PHI	COL	Kyle Kendrick vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	57.47	TBD
TOR	TB	Ricky Romero vs David Price	TB	TBD	57.313	TBD

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August 1st Simulations

Plundered ...

Dodgers vs Padres
Favorite: Dodgers	ML: -130 +120 55.56%	Simulator: 47.40%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.0	Over +102	Under -112
Simulator Over/Under: 5.90	Over: 40.33%	Under: 59.67%	Result: OVER
Top 5 Most Likely Scores: SD 2-1, SD 1-0, SD 3-2, LAN 2-1, LAN 1-0
Clayton Kershaw: IP 6.50, SO 8.10, BB 2.25, HR 0.34, FIP 2.42
Cory Luebke: IP 6.53, SO 8.06, BB 1.94, HR 0.52, FIP 2.66
Final Score: #32 LAN 6-2

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Phillies	Rockies	C.Hamels vs J.Chacin	Phillies	56.71%	54.21%	PHI 4-3
Athletics	Mariners	T.Cahill vs B.Beavan	Athletics	52.83%	51.22%	SEA 8-4
Cubs	Pirates	C.Zambrano vs P.Maholm	Pirates	57.26%	55.86%	CHN 5-3
Marlins	Mets	J.Vazquez vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	52.15%	57.34%	FLA 7-3
Indians	Red Sox	J.Tomlin vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	63.37%	64.40%	CLE 9-6
DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs M.Cain	Giants	54.95%	61.21%	ARI 5-2
Yankees	White Sox	C.Sabathia vs J.Peavy	Yankees	63.37%	58.18%	NYA 3-2
Braves	Nationals	J.Jurrjens vs L.Hernandez	Braves	57.81%	48.81%	WAS 5-3
Cardinals	Brewers	C.Carpenter vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	54.34%	49.32%	MIL 6-2
Reds	Astros	B.Arroyo vs B.Norris	Reds	53.05%	47.62%	HOU 4-3

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