Comparing The Talents Of National League Pitchers

Last week I looked at similarity scores between NL West starting pitchers using the stats of K/9, BB/9, GB/FB and Age. This week I am expanding my sample to include all projected National League starting pitchers. And this time I am going to narrow the stats down to the ones I feel are most reflective of a pitchers talent (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB). I tried to weight each of the three categories somewhat evenly, by using the number of standard deviations away from the mean (in each category) for each pitchers three inputs.

The way I am calculating the similarity scores is by using an X-Y-Z plot and calculating how close each pitcher is to each other in terms of distance using the three stats listed above. There is a simple formula to calculate this that we all learned in trigonometry. Dist = SQRT((X1-X2)^2 + (Y1-Y2)^2 + (Z1-Z2)^2)

The ultimate goal of each pitcher would be to score well in each of the three categories placing him in the top quadrant. A pitcher with a high K/9, low BB/9 and high GB/FB are positioned to have the most success. What really stands out before looking at any results are the numbers of Roy Halladay. His K/9 of 7.57 is above average, coming in at a modest 0.27 standard deviations above the mean. His BB/9 of 1.24 comes in at 2.65 (the best) standard deviations (to the good side) and lastly his GB/FB comes in at 1.89 standard deviations (above the mean). It is no wonder why Roy Halladay is the leagues best pitcher.

Roy Halladay (units SD)
K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
+0.27	+2.65	+1.89

Since this blog is primarily a Dodgers blog, let's take a look at the most similar NL pitchers for each of the Dodgers five starters.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitcher	Most Similar	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Sim Score
C.Kershaw	Y.Gallardo	9.65 vs 9.67	3.62 vs 3.43	1.06 vs 1.18	0.361
C.Billingsley	R.Dempster	8.39 vs 8.14	3.34 vs 3.27	1.36 vs 1.41	0.223
H.Kuroda	C.Carpenter	6.83 vs 6.39	2.17 vs 2.23	1.59 vs 1.81	0.539
T.Lilly	S.Marcum	7.63 vs 7.65	2.23 vs 2.18	0.74 vs 0.94	0.404
J.Garland	L.Hernandez	4.84 vs 4.91	2.83 vs 2.89	1.33 vs 1.15	0.371

A fair conclusion to come to from this, is to say that the Dodgers starting rotation of Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda, Lilly and Garland is equal to in terms of 2011 projected talent as a rotation of Gallardo, Dempster, Carpenter, Marcum and Hernandez. This leads to the very interesting question of, which of those two rotations would you rather want for the 2011 season, all other things (salary, age, etc...) being equal?

Here is a quick look at the rest of the National League starters with each pitchers closest comparable NL pitcher and their similarity score (lowest is closest).

NL Starting Pitchers - Similarity Scores
Pitcher	Most Similar	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Sim Score
T.Lincecum	Y.Gallardo	9.95 vs 9.67	3.01 vs 3.43	1.37 vs 1.18	0.733
B.Zito	K.Correia	6.46 vs 6.60	3.72 vs 3.56	0.89 vs 1.14	0.555
M.Cain	A.Harang	7.51 vs 7.38	2.66 vs 2.69	0.80 vs 0.93	0.277
J.Sanchez	B.Norris	9.49 vs 8.95	4.33 vs 4.33	0.98 vs 1.04	0.392
M.Bumgarner	J.Hammel	7.23 vs 7.25	2.43 vs 2.27	1.23 vs 1.33	0.302
U.Jimenez	J.Chacin	8.59 vs 9.06	3.59 vs 3.83	1.64 vs 1.45	0.604
J.de la Rosa	J.Chacin	8.64 vs 9.06	4.03 vs 3.83	1.31 vs 1.45	0.493
J.Hammel	M.Bumgarner	7.25 vs 7.23	2.27 vs 2.43	1.33 vs 1.23	0.302
A.Cook	T.Hudson	3.97 vs 5.63	2.78 vs 2.79	2.44 vs 2.60	1.191
J.Chacin	J.de la Rosa	9.06 vs 8.64	3.83 vs 4.03	1.45 vs 1.31	0.493
I.Kennedy	J.McDonald	7.97 vs 8.52	3.28 vs 3.48	0.84 vs 0.82	0.477
D.Hudson	M.Cain	8.01 vs 7.51	2.69 vs 2.66	0.72 vs 0.80	0.383
J.Saunders	R.Dickey	5.40 vs 5.42	2.85 vs 2.69	1.27 vs 1.39	0.330
B.Enright	B.Arroyo	5.81 vs 5.38	2.25 vs 2.58	0.70 vs 1.01	0.830
Z.Duke	R.Dickey	4.66 vs 5.42	2.46 vs 2.69	1.60 vs 1.39	0.747
M.Latos	C.Hamels	9.18 vs 8.56	2.53 vs 2.32	1.03 vs 1.06	0.526
C.Richard	J.Jurrjens	6.50 vs 6.54	3.25 vs 3.17	1.43 vs 1.26	0.357
T.Stauffer	D.Moseley	6.05 vs 5.69	3.03 vs 3.06	1.31 vs 1.39	0.298
A.Harang	J.Cueto	7.38 vs 7.16	2.69 vs 2.76	0.93 vs 1.02	0.255
D.Moseley	T.Stauffer	5.69 vs 6.05	3.06 vs 3.03	1.39 vs 1.31	0.298
R.Halladay	H.Kuroda	7.57 vs 6.83	1.24 vs 2.17	2.18 vs 1.59	1.786
C.Lee	R.Nolasco	7.59 vs 8.82	1.30 vs 2.03	0.91 vs 0.95	1.254
R.Oswalt	J.Hammel	7.54 vs 7.25	2.34 vs 2.27	1.48 vs 1.33	0.373
C.Hamels	Z.Greinke	8.56 vs 8.55	2.32 vs 2.23	1.06 vs 1.01	0.162
J.Blanton	M.Bumgarner	6.55 vs 7.23	2.50 vs 2.43	1.20 vs 1.23	0.484
T.Hudson	J.Westbrook	5.63 vs 5.83	2.79 vs 2.97	2.60 vs 2.65	0.308
T.Hanson	J.Vazquez	8.33 vs 7.68	2.67 vs 2.80	0.99 vs 0.96	0.490
D.Lowe	J.Westbrook	6.26 vs 5.83	2.70 vs 2.97	3.08 vs 2.65	0.983
J.Jurrjens	C.Richard	6.54 vs 6.50	3.17 vs 3.25	1.26 vs 1.43	0.357
M.Minor	D.Hudson	8.74 vs 8.01	3.00 vs 2.69	0.73 vs 0.72	0.671
J.Johnson	C.Hamels	8.96 vs 8.56	2.32 vs 2.32	1.45 vs 1.06	0.409
R.Nolasco	C.Hamels	8.82 vs 8.56	2.03 vs 2.32	0.95 vs 1.06	0.361
J.Vazquez	A.Harang	7.68 vs 7.38	2.80 vs 2.69	0.96 vs 0.93	0.267
A.Sanchez	C.Billingsley	7.57 vs 8.39	3.51 vs 3.34	1.15 vs 1.36	0.606
C.Volstad	D.Moseley	5.76 vs 5.69	3.34 vs 3.06	1.51 vs 1.39	0.467
J.Santana	A.Harang	6.99 vs 7.38	2.46 vs 2.69	0.87 vs 0.93	0.441
M.Pelfrey	D.Moseley	5.44 vs 5.69	2.99 vs 3.06	1.63 vs 1.39	0.517
J.Niese	B.Myers	7.49 vs 7.44	3.06 vs 2.77	1.48 vs 1.46	0.416
R.Dickey	J.Saunders	5.42 vs 5.40	2.69 vs 2.85	1.39 vs 1.27	0.330
C.Young	C.Narveson	7.63 vs 7.45	3.70 vs 3.70	0.54 vs 0.87	0.667
L.Hernandez	J.Garland	4.91 vs 4.84	2.89 vs 2.83	1.15 vs 1.33	0.371
J.Lannan	P.Maholm	4.66 vs 4.95	3.21 vs 3.01	1.83 vs 1.84	0.349
J.Marquis	J.Lannan	4.89 vs 4.66	3.43 vs 3.21	1.58 vs 1.83	0.608
J.Zimmerman	W.Rodriguez	8.30 vs 8.40	2.86 vs 2.94	1.33 vs 1.26	0.143
T.Gorzelanny	H.Bailey	8.00 vs 7.54	3.88 vs 3.93	1.06 vs 1.20	0.429
C.Carpenter	H.Kuroda	6.39 vs 6.83	2.23 vs 2.17	1.81 vs 1.59	0.539
A.Wainwright	J.Johnson	8.41 vs 8.96	2.24 vs 2.32	1.50 vs 1.45	0.409
K.Lohse	B.Arroyo	5.50 vs 5.38	2.71 vs 2.58	1.12 vs 1.01	0.298
J.Westbrook	T.Hudson	5.83 vs 5.63	2.97 vs 2.79	2.65 vs 2.60	0.308
J.Garcia	J.Westbrook	7.30 vs 5.83	3.39 vs 2.97	2.29 vs 2.65	1.379
E.Volquez	B.Norris	9.43 vs 8.95	4.68 vs 4.33	1.34 vs 1.04	0.845
B.Arroyo	K.Lohse	5.38 vs 5.50	2.58 vs 2.71	1.01 vs 1.12	0.298
J.Cueto	A.Harang	7.16 vs 7.38	2.76 vs 2.69	1.02 vs 0.93	0.255
T.Wood	I.Kennedy	7.61 vs 7.97	3.14 vs 3.28	0.63 vs 0.84	0.522
H.Bailey	T.Gorzelanny	7.54 vs 8.00	3.93 vs 3.88	1.20 vs 1.06	0.429
Z.Greinke	C.Hamels	8.55 vs 8.56	2.23 vs 2.32	1.01 vs 1.06	0.162
Y.Gallardo	C.Kershaw	9.67 vs 9.65	3.43 vs 3.62	1.18 vs 1.06	0.361
S.Marcum	T.Lilly	7.65 vs 7.63	2.18 vs 2.23	0.94 vs 0.74	0.404
R.Wolf	R.Ohlendorf	6.45 vs 6.48	3.32 vs 3.24	0.95 vs 0.92	0.130
C.Narveson	T.Gorzelanny	7.45 vs 8.00	3.70 vs 3.88	0.87 vs 1.06	0.594
R.Dempster	C.Billingsley	8.14 vs 8.39	3.27 vs 3.34	1.41 vs 1.36	0.223
R.Wells	T.Stauffer	6.57 vs 6.05	2.76 vs 3.03	1.43 vs 1.31	0.577
M.Garza	N.Figueroa	7.38 vs 7.04	2.94 vs 3.00	1.16 vs 1.05	0.332
C.Zambrano	J.de la Rosa	7.92 vs 8.64	4.23 vs 4.03	1.51 vs 1.31	0.698
C.Silva	H.Kuroda	5.63 vs 6.83	1.94 vs 2.17	1.51 vs 1.59	0.895
P.Maholm	J.Lannan	4.95 vs 4.66	3.01 vs 3.21	1.84 vs 1.83	0.349
R.Ohlendorf	R.Wolf	6.48 vs 6.45	3.24 vs 3.32	0.92 vs 0.95	0.130
C.Morton	C.Richard	6.51 vs 6.50	3.64 vs 3.25	1.55 vs 1.43	0.604
J.McDonald	I.Kennedy	8.52 vs 7.97	3.48 vs 3.28	0.82 vs 0.84	0.477
K.Correia	R.Wolf	6.60 vs 6.45	3.56 vs 3.32	1.14 vs 0.95	0.520
W.Rodriguez	J.Zimmerman	8.40 vs 8.30	2.94 vs 2.86	1.26 vs 1.33	0.193
B.Myers	J.Niese	7.44 vs 7.49	2.77 vs 3.06	1.46 vs 1.48	0.416
J.Happ	T.Gorzelanny	7.87 vs 8.00	4.15 vs 3.88	0.87 vs 1.06	0.546
B.Norris	J.Sanchez	8.95 vs 9.49	4.33 vs 4.33	1.04 vs 0.98	0.392
N.Figueroa	M.Garza	7.04 vs 7.38	3.00 vs 2.94	1.05 vs 1.16	0.332

There are some interesting results here. The two pitchers with the closest similarity scores are Randy Wolf (MIL) and Ross Ohlendorf (PIT) with a score of 0.130. Zack Greinke and Cole Hamels have a score of 0.162, the lowest score of what I would call upper tier pitchers. There are a few pitchers like Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Jaime Garcia who don't have any worthwhile comparables, usually from being outliers in more than one category. If you are interested in the complete spreadsheet of all the comparables, please write me an email (xeifrank-yahoo-com) or leave a comment.

Summary Statistics
Statistic	Result
Average K/9	7.14
Stdev K/9	1.45
Average BB/9	2.98
Stdev BB/9	0.70
Average GB/FB	1.32
Stdev GB/FB	0.50

MLB Picks

Same As It Ever Was

Time for another fun little exercise. This time I take a look at similarity scores of NL West starting pitchers. Let's take a look at the scheduled starters from the 5-man rotations of the NL West. The statistics of choice will be K/9, BB/9, GB/FB and age. I will be using the square of the sums to come up with a similarity score for each of the 25 pitchers. Naturally, you don't want your best match to be someone like D.Moseley, T.Stauffer or A.Cook. Let's take a look at the closest overall matches and the closest match for each individual pitcher.

Top 10 Closest Similarity Scores
Rank	Pitchers	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Age	Score
1	D.Moseley / T.Stauffer	5.69 / 6.05	3.06 / 3.03	1.39 / 1.31	29 / 28	0.405
2	J.Saunders / D.Moseley	5.4 / 5.69	2.85 / 3.06	1.27 / 1.39	29 / 29	0.501
3	J.Saunders / T.Stauffer	5.4 / 6.05	2.85 / 3.25	1.27 / 1.43	29 / 27	0.571
4	C.Richard / T.Stauffer	6.5 / 6.05	3.25 / 3.03	1.43 / 1.31	27 / 28	0.614
5	M.Cain / D.Hudson	7.51 / 8.01	2.66 / 2.69	0.8 / 0.72	26 / 24	0.649
6	J.Garland / J.Saunders	4.84 / 5.40	2.83 / 2.85	1.33 / 1.27	31 / 29	0.651
7	C.Richard / D.Moseley	6.50 / 5.69	3.25 /3.06	1.43 / 1.39	27 / 29	0.797
8	J.Garland / D.Moseley	4.84 / 5.69	2.83 / 3.06	1.33 / 1.39	31 / 29	0.848
9	C.Billingsley / U.Jimenez	8.39 / 8.59	3.34 / 3.59	1.36 / 1.64	26 / 27	0.889
10	M.Cain / I.Kennedy	7.51 / 7.97	2.66 / 3.28	0.80 / 0.84	26 / 26	1.075

Now let's take a look at each pitchers closest match.

Similarities
Pitcher	Closest match	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Age	Score
C.Kershaw	J.Chacin	9.65 / 9.06	3.62 / 3.83	1.06 / 1.45	23 / 23	1.132
C.Billingsley	U.Jimenez	8.39 / 8.59	3.34 / 3.59	1.36 / 1.64	26 / 27	0.889
H.Kuroda	J.Garland	6.83 / 4.84	2.17 / 2.83	1.59 / 1.33	36 / 31	2.211
T.Lilly	A.Harang	7.63 / 7.38	2.23 / 2.69	0.74 / 0.93	35 / 32	1.221
J.Garland	J.Saunders	4.84 / 5.40	2.83 / 2.85	1.33 / 1.27	31 / 29	0.651
T.Lincecum	C.Billingsley	9.95 / 8.39	3.01 / 3.34	1.37 / 1.36	26 / 26	1.094
M.Cain	D.Hudson	7.51 / 8.01	2.66 / 2.69	0.80 / 0.72	26 / 24	0.649
J.Sanchez	J.de la Rosa	9.49 / 8.64	4.33 / 4.03	0.98 / 1.31	28 / 29	1.151
B.Zito	C.Richard	6.46 / 6.50	3.72 / 3.25	0.89 / 1.43	32 / 27	2.088
M.Bumgarner	M.Latos	7.23 / 9.18	2.43 / 2.53	1.23 / 1.03	21 / 23	1.406
U.Jimenez	C.Billingsley	8.59 / 8.39	3.59 / 3.34	1.64 / 1.36	27 / 26	0.889
J.de la Rosa	J.Sanchez	8.64 / 9.49	4.03 / 4.33	1.31 / 0.98	29 / 28	1.151
J.Hammel	T.Stauffer	7.25 / 6.05	2.27 / 3.03	1.33 / 1.31	28 / 28	1.461
A.Cook	Z.Duke	3.97 / 4.66	2.78 / 2.46	2.44 / 1.60	32 / 27	2.648
J.Chacin	C.Kershaw	9.06 / 9.65	3.83 / 3.62	1.45 / 1.06	23 / 23	1.132
I.Kennedy	M.Cain	7.97 / 7.51	3.28 / 2.66	0.84 / 0.80	26 / 26	1.075
D.Hudson	M.Cain	8.01 / 7.51	2.69 / 2.66	0.72 / 0.80	24 / 26	0.649
J.Saunders	D.Moseley	5.40 / 5.69	2.85 / 3.06	1.27 / 1.39	29 / 29	0.501
B.Enright	M.Cain	5.81 / 7.51	2.25 / 2.66	0.70 / 0.80	25 / 26	1.291
Z.Duke	J.Saunders	4.66 / 5.40	2.46 / 2.85	1.60 / 1.27	27 / 29	1.282
M.Latos	D.Hudson	9.18 / 8.01	2.53 / 2.69	1.03 / 0.72	23 / 24	1.138
C.Richard	T.Stauffer	6.50 / 6.05	3.25 / 3.03	1.43 / 1.31	27 / 28	0.614
T.Stauffer	D.Moseley	6.05 / 5.69	3.03 / 3.06	1.31 / 1.39	28 / 29	0.405
A.Harang	T.Lilly	7.38 / 7.63	2.69 / 2.23	0.93 / 0.74	32 / 35	1.221
D.Moseley	T.Stauffer	5.69 / 6.05	3.06 / 3.03	1.39 / 1.31	29 / 28	0.405

Source: Fangraphs

2010 NL West WAR

It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

	Rockies		Dodgers		Giants		DBacks		Padres
Pos	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR
C	C.Iannetta	2.5	R.Martin	3.0	B.Molina	1.2	M.Montero	3.3	N.Hundley	2.2
1B	T.Helton	3.8	J.Loney	1.8	A.Huff	1.4	A.LaRoche	1.5	A.Gonzalez	5.2
2B	C.Barmes	1.8	B.Dewitt	1.5	F.Sanchez	2.2	K.Johnson	2.5	D.Eckstein	0.6
3B	I.Stewart	1.8	C.Blake	3.5	P.Sandoval	5.0	M.Reynolds	3.9	K.Kouzmanoff	3.0
SS	T.Tulowitzki	6.0	R.Furcal	2.9	E.Renteria	1.0	S.Drew	2.2	E.Cabrera	1.7
LF	S.Smith	2.7	M.Ramirez	3.8	M.DeRosa	2.3	C.Jackson	2.5	C.Headley	2.4
CF	C.Gonzalez	4.0	M.Kemp	5.4	A.Rowand	1.7	C.Young	1.0	W.Venable	2.3
RF	B.Hawpe	1.8	A.Ethier	3.3	N.Schierholtz	1.7	J.Upton	5.5	T.Gwynn	2.8
UT	D.Fowler	1.8	J.Carroll	0.3	A.Torres	1.6	G.Parra	1.0	K.Blanks	1.2
BN	Bench	2.0	Bench	0.6	Bench	3.2	Bench	1.1	Bench	0.8
Misc	Sucktitude	-4.7		-4.0		-5.5		-6.0		-7.9
Pitchers
SP1	U.Jimenez	5.1	C.Kershaw	4.4	T.Lincecum	7.0	D.Haren	5.5	K.Correia	2.3
SP2	J.de la Rosa	3.0	C.Billingsley	3.5	M.Cain	4.0	B.Webb	5.0	C.Richard	2.0
SP3	J.Hammel	2.9	H.Kuroda	2.5	J.Sanchez	2.4	E.Jackson	2.5	M.Latos	1.5
SP4	A.Cook	2.2	V.Padilla	2.5	B.Zito	2.0	I.Kennedy	2.0	C.Young	1.5
SP5	J.Francis	2.0	E.Stults	1.7	M.Bumgarner	1.8	B.Buckner	1.5	W.LeBlanc	1.5
SP	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.7	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.3	All Others	0.7
CL	H.Street	1.5	J.Broxton	2.3	B.Wilson	2.0	C.Qualls	1.0	H.Bell	1.8
SU	R.Betancourt	0.7	G.Sherrill	1.0	J.Affeldt	1.0	J.Gutierrez	0.5	L.Perdomo	0.2
RP	All Others	0.9	All Others	1.5	All Others	1.0	All Others	1.2	All Others	1.1
Misc	Sucktitude	-0.3		-1.0		-0.8		-1.0		-6.9
Hitters		23.4		22.1		15.5		18.8		14.3
Pitchers		18.1		19.1		20.5		18.2		5.7
Replacement		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5
Total		88.0		87.7		82.5		83.5		66.5

Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

NL West 2 Man Simulation Challenge

Champion: D.Fowler/T.Helton
2nd Place: A.Ethier/C.Blake
3rd Place: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

What: A 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Game by Game Updates/Scores

Link to bracket

Slip Sliding Away

The Dodgers lead in the NL West is "Slip Sliding Away!".

NL West Standings
Team	W	L	GB	Pecota NL West Champ Chances
Dodgers	67	45	0	78.13%
Rockies	61	50	5.5	16.60%
Giants	61	50	5.5	5.25%
Diamondbacks	50	62	17	0.01%
Padres	47	66	20.5	0.00%

NL West is the Best

Remember all the pre-season talk about how bad the NL West would be in 2009? Well, we are well over a third of the way through the season and the NL West has the best winning percentage of any division in the National League. The NL West has the best team in all of baseball, followed by the current NL Wild-Card leader. Not too shabby if you ask me. Let's take a look at the breakdown of the standings in the NL West and how the two other divisions stack up.

NL West Standings
Team	W	L	Pct
Dodgers	42	22	.656
Giants	34	28	.548
Rockies	31	32	.492
Padres	28	34	.452
Diamondbacks	27	37	.422
NL West	162	153	.514
NL Central	188	185	.504
NL East	146	164	.471

So much for the "haters" excusing the Dodgers MLB best record on the division they play in. The NL West is more than holding it's own up to this point. Fans of the NL West will point to the pathetic 16-45 record of the Washington Nationals pulling down their division. While this is true, it is also inflating the records of the top four NL East teams. The NL Central is a solid division, but lacks the dominating team that the NL West has. I cut the NL Central teams some slack, because they have 5 other divisional foes to beat out every season, as opposed to the 4 that the other two NL West divisional teams must beat out. But in the end, I think the wild-card evens that out.

Who's That Knockin On The Door?

West	W	L	Pct	GB
Dodgers	37	18	.673	__
Giants	25	25	.500	9.5
Padres	25	28	.472	11.0
Diamondbacks	23	31	.426	13.5
Rockies	20	32	.385	15.5

Nobody, that's who. Must be just the wind blowing, because there is nobody close to knocking on the Dodgers door in the NL West. This division is all but wrapped up. All it needs is a pretty bow and some dreadlocks to go with it and it's time to wait and see our first round opponent is.

Ok, I am partially kidding... 9-1/2 game leads have been lost much later in the season than this. Plenty of head to head games remain between divisional foes, but it gets to a point where a lead becomes too big to overcome, especially when the talent levels are so uneven.

Giants: The Giants are the closest competitor right now at 9-1/2 games behind the Dodgers. The Giants have a nice little pitching staff, and are playing .500 ball. That's probably how they will end the season, but could easily finish slightly over .500 at best. Their offense is awful and their bullpen, smells like a stroll down the Embarcadero.

Padres: Next up are the Padres, who are currently in third place, 11 games out. They recently put together a nice little 10 game winning streak. But they would be hard pressed to finish off the season at the .500 level, and most likely will finish somewhere around 10 to 15 games under .500. They have two nice little players in Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy. Peavy may or may not even finish the season off with the Padres. They are not a threat.

Diamondbacks: This is the team I still worry about the most, but they are a whopping 13-1/2 games out of first place, with two other teams to climb over in the NL West. They are easily the 2nd most talented team in the NL West and if they were less than 10 games out, I may be a little worried about them, but they are so far back in the rear view mirror that I can't see them contending for the West title this year. I still believe that they will finish around the .500 level, good enough for a possible 2nd place finish in the west. Very small threat, even when Brandon Webb returns.

Rockies The Rockies are 15-1/2 games out and are a very bad team. Probably on the same level as the Padres. But aren't even worth mentioning.