2010 NL East WAR

Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Phillies	30.6	17.4	46.5	94.5
Braves	22.4	20.4	46.5	89.3
Mets	22.4	14.0	46.5	82.9
Marlins	18.7	13.3	46.5	78.5
Nationals	18.5	6.9	46.5	71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Chase Utley	Phillies	8.1
2	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	7.4
3	Roy Halladay	Phillies	6.7
4	David Wright	Mets	6.4
4	Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	6.4
6	Brian McCann	Braves	5.5
7	Jose Reyes	Mets	5.2
7	Josh Johnson	Marlins	5.2
9	Johan Santana	Mets	4.7
10	Chipper Jones	Braves	4.6
10	Tommy Hanson	Braves	4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

2010 NL Central WAR

Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Cardinals	24.4	19.1	48.0	91.5
Cubs	20.1	13.7	48.0	81.8
Brewers	20.4	9.7	48.0	78.1
Reds	16.2	10.7	48.0	74.9
Astros	16.3	9.7	48.0	74.0
Pirates	13.9	9.6	48.0	71.5

Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	7.5
2	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	5.5
3	Prince Fielder	Brewers	5.3
4	Ryan Braun	Brewers	5.1
5	Matt Holliday	Cardinals	5.0
6	Joey Votto	Reds	4.9
6	Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	4.9
6	Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	4.9
9	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	4.6
10	Lance Berkman	Astros	4.4

Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup

2010 NL West WAR

It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

	Rockies		Dodgers		Giants		DBacks		Padres
Pos	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR
C	C.Iannetta	2.5	R.Martin	3.0	B.Molina	1.2	M.Montero	3.3	N.Hundley	2.2
1B	T.Helton	3.8	J.Loney	1.8	A.Huff	1.4	A.LaRoche	1.5	A.Gonzalez	5.2
2B	C.Barmes	1.8	B.Dewitt	1.5	F.Sanchez	2.2	K.Johnson	2.5	D.Eckstein	0.6
3B	I.Stewart	1.8	C.Blake	3.5	P.Sandoval	5.0	M.Reynolds	3.9	K.Kouzmanoff	3.0
SS	T.Tulowitzki	6.0	R.Furcal	2.9	E.Renteria	1.0	S.Drew	2.2	E.Cabrera	1.7
LF	S.Smith	2.7	M.Ramirez	3.8	M.DeRosa	2.3	C.Jackson	2.5	C.Headley	2.4
CF	C.Gonzalez	4.0	M.Kemp	5.4	A.Rowand	1.7	C.Young	1.0	W.Venable	2.3
RF	B.Hawpe	1.8	A.Ethier	3.3	N.Schierholtz	1.7	J.Upton	5.5	T.Gwynn	2.8
UT	D.Fowler	1.8	J.Carroll	0.3	A.Torres	1.6	G.Parra	1.0	K.Blanks	1.2
BN	Bench	2.0	Bench	0.6	Bench	3.2	Bench	1.1	Bench	0.8
Misc	Sucktitude	-4.7		-4.0		-5.5		-6.0		-7.9
Pitchers
SP1	U.Jimenez	5.1	C.Kershaw	4.4	T.Lincecum	7.0	D.Haren	5.5	K.Correia	2.3
SP2	J.de la Rosa	3.0	C.Billingsley	3.5	M.Cain	4.0	B.Webb	5.0	C.Richard	2.0
SP3	J.Hammel	2.9	H.Kuroda	2.5	J.Sanchez	2.4	E.Jackson	2.5	M.Latos	1.5
SP4	A.Cook	2.2	V.Padilla	2.5	B.Zito	2.0	I.Kennedy	2.0	C.Young	1.5
SP5	J.Francis	2.0	E.Stults	1.7	M.Bumgarner	1.8	B.Buckner	1.5	W.LeBlanc	1.5
SP	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.7	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.3	All Others	0.7
CL	H.Street	1.5	J.Broxton	2.3	B.Wilson	2.0	C.Qualls	1.0	H.Bell	1.8
SU	R.Betancourt	0.7	G.Sherrill	1.0	J.Affeldt	1.0	J.Gutierrez	0.5	L.Perdomo	0.2
RP	All Others	0.9	All Others	1.5	All Others	1.0	All Others	1.2	All Others	1.1
Misc	Sucktitude	-0.3		-1.0		-0.8		-1.0		-6.9
Hitters		23.4		22.1		15.5		18.8		14.3
Pitchers		18.1		19.1		20.5		18.2		5.7
Replacement		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5
Total		88.0		87.7		82.5		83.5		66.5

Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

Xizzles

I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)

Name	Pos	AB	Hits	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP
Matt Kemp	CF	600.0	176.6	117.0	27.2	5.7	26.7	0.294	0.348	0.492	0.840	0.363	0.341
Andre Ethier	RF	580.0	161.3	87.5	40.9	3.3	29.5	0.278	0.357	0.513	0.870	0.374	0.298
Manny Ramirez	LF	510.0	147.8	86.4	32.7	2.4	26.3	0.290	0.404	0.518	0.921	0.401	0.332
Casey Blake	3B	500.0	137.6	89.4	25.4	5.2	17.6	0.275	0.356	0.452	0.808	0.354	0.331
Rafael Furcal	SS	600.0	164.2	122.1	27.4	5.3	9.4	0.274	0.341	0.384	0.725	0.325	0.306
Blake DeWitt	3B	400.0	103.3	63.7	25.1	2.5	12.0	0.258	0.321	0.424	0.745	0.326	0.281
Russell Martin	C	515.0	131.2	101.3	20.0	0.1	9.7	0.255	0.347	0.351	0.698	0.319	0.284
James Loney	1B	550.0	156.1	114.2	24.8	2.5	14.6	0.284	0.359	0.417	0.776	0.345	0.302
Jamey Carroll	2B	200.0	53.0	44.3	6.4	1.1	1.2	0.265	0.337	0.326	0.662	0.304	0.328
Jason Repko	CF	175.0	40.9	24.9	11.5	1.4	3.0	0.234	0.286	0.367	0.653	0.288	0.275
Xavier Paul	RF	175.0	46.1	30.3	9.1	0.3	6.4	0.263	0.326	0.429	0.755	0.330	0.297

NL West 2 Man Simulation Challenge

Champion: D.Fowler/T.Helton
2nd Place: A.Ethier/C.Blake
3rd Place: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

What: A 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Game by Game Updates/Scores

Link to bracket

Game Six In The City

November 4th, World Series Game #6

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	64.97%	64.66%	61%	NYA 7-3

Vegas Odds

Uno Mas

November 2nd, World Series Game #5

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	Phillies	57.45%	63.03%	60%	PHI 8-6

Vegas Odds

Start Spreading The News...

November 1st, World Series Game #4

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	Yankees	62.26%	62.51%	65%	NYA 7-4

Vegas Odds

Trick Or Treat Baseball

October 31st, World Series Game #3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	Yankees	52.83%	46.70%	52%	NYA 8-5

Vegas Odds

Who's Your Daddy

October 29th, World Series Game #2

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	P.Martinez vs A.Burnett	Yankees	66.10%	58.48%	58%	NYA 3-1

Vegas Odds

World Series, Tale Of The Tape

There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos	Yankees	WAR/650PA	Phillies	WAR/650PA
C	J.Posada	5.94	C.Ruiz	3.77
1B	M.Teixeira	4.78	R.Howard	4.53
2B	R.Cano	4.15	C.Utley	7.29
3B	A.Rodriguez	5.59	P.Feliz	1.25
SS	D.Jeter	6.72	J.Rollins	2.15
LF	J.Damon	2.91	R.Ibanez	4.72
CF	M.Cabrera	1.93	S.Victorino	3.18
RF	N.Swisher	3.96	J.Werth	4.52
DH	H.Matsui	2.95	B.Francisco	2.27
Total (DH)		38.92		33.67
Total (No DH)		35.97		31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

When Two Tribes Go To War

October 28th, World Series Game #1

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	C.Lee vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	60.78%	56.96%	67%	PHI 6-1

Vegas Odds

End Of The Line

October 25th, ALCS Game #6

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Angels	Yankees	J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	63.37%	67.25%	57%	NYA 5-2

Vegas Odds

El Fin

October 22nd, ALCS Game #5

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Angels	A.Burnett vs J.Lackey	Angels	53.49%	55.25%	54%	LAA 7-6

Vegas Odds

Sending Out An S.O.S.

October 21st, NLCS

Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	V.Padilla vs C.Hamels	Phillies	56.71%	59.88%	55%	PHI 10-4

Vegas Odds

Mountain Of Dreams

October 20th, ALCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Angels	C.Sabathia vs S.Kazmir	Yankees	56.14%	56.32%	60%	NYA 10-1

Vegas Odds

Back, Meet Wall.

October 19th, LCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	R.Wolf vs J.Blanton	Phillies	55.16%	48.98%	49%	PHI 5-4
Yankees	Angels	A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver	Angels	55.95%	50.41%	60%	LAA 5-4

Vegas Odds

Phillie Killer

October 18th, ALCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	H.Kuroda vs C.Lee	Phillies	63.79%	58.94%	57%	PHI 11-0

Vegas Odds

Start Spreading The News

October 17th, ALCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Angels	Yankees	J.Saunders vs A.Burnett	Yankees	63.77%	64.64%	60%	NYA 4-3

Vegas Odds

Only A Phillie Walks In LA

October 16th, LCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	P.Martinez vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	57.63%	56.70%	51%	LAN 2-1
Angels	Yankees	J.Lackey vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	62.12%	66.28%	68%	NYA 4-1

Vegas Odds

Dodgers Play Their Ace

October 15th, Game #1 NLCS

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.90%	62.55%	51%	PHI 8-6

Vegas Odds

Who Can It Be Now?

October 12th, Playoffs

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Rockies	C.Lee vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	51.69%	48.41%	46%	PHI 5-4

Vegas Odds

Redbirds Get The Broom Handle

October 11th, Playoffs

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Twins	A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano	Yankees	62.85%	51.67%	57%	NYA 4-1
Angels	Red Sox	S.Kazmir vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	57.26%	55.29%	51%	LAA 7-6
Phillies	Rockies	J.Happ vs J.Hammel	Phillies	51.46%	45.87%	48%	TBD

Vegas Odds

Happy Hollidays Dodgers Fans

October 9th, Playoffs

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Twins	Yankees	N.Blackburn vs A.Burnett	Yankees	74.03%	62.90%	TBD	TBD
Red Sox	Angels	J.Beckett vs J.Weaver	Red Sox	TBD	52.10%	TBD	TBD

Vegas Odds

Where The Deer And The Bison Play

October 8th, Playoffs

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw	Cardinals	53.70%	43.91%	53%	LAN 3-2
Rockies	Phillies	A.Cook vs C.Hamels	Phillies	60.16%	66.04%	64%	COL 5-4
Red Sox	Angels	J.Lester vs J.Lackey	Red Sox	51.21%	51.49%	45%	LAA 5-0

Vegas Odds

Ready To Rumble

October 7th, Playoffs

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf	Cardinals	56.90%	51.99%	53%	LAN 5-3
Rockies	Phillies	U.Jimenez vs C.Lee	Phillies	56.14%	62.26%	60%	PHI 5-1
Twins	Yankees	B.Duensing vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	74.03%	68.30%	76%	NYA 7-2

Vegas Odds

And Then There Were Two Games Left

October 3nd, Meaningful Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.de la Rosa vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.33%	64.71%	60%	LAN 5-0
Marlins	Phillies	A.Sanchez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	67.32%	65.13%	69%	FLA 4-3
Brewers	Cardinals	C.Villanueva vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	57.81%	56.11%	55%	MIL 5-4

Vegas Odds

The Long And Winding Road To Clinching

October 2nd, Meaningful Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	50.98%	56.46%	71%	COL 4-3
Marlins	Phillies	R.VandenHurk vs J.Blanton	Phillies	62.55%	60.95%	58%	FLA 7-2
Brewers	Cardinals	J.Suppan vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	65.46%	71.79%	69%	MIL 12-6

Vegas Odds

Happy 60th Birthday to the Middle Kingdom

October 1st, All Meaningful Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Cardinals	Reds	C.Carpenter vs K.Wells	Cardinals	TBD	68.41%	68%	STL 13-0
Brewers	Rockies	M.Parra vs A.Cook	Rockies	TBD	54.64%	65%	COL 9-2
Astros	Phillies	F.Paulino vs C.Lee	Phillies	TBD	72.10%	67%	HOU 5-3
Nationals	Braves	G.Mock vs T.Hanson	Braves	TBD	68.00%	78%	WAS 2-1
Twins	Tigers	S.Baker vs N.Robertson	Tigers	TBD	50.81%	59%	MIN 8-3

Vegas Odds

Let's Get It Done

September 29th, All Meaningful Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Billingsley vs C.Ramos	Dodgers	59.68%	60.43%	49%	TSD 3-1
Brewers	Rockies	C.Narveson vs J.Marquis	Rockies	62.55%	58.92%	56%	COL 7-5
Astros	Phillies	W.Lopez vs J.Happ	Phillies	73.33%	65.20%	71%	PHI 7-4
Marlins	Braves	J.Johnson vs T.Hudson	Braves	54.13%	47.13%	45%	FLA 5-4
Twins	Tigers	N.Blackburn vs N.Porcello	Tigers	54.75%	56.74%	51%	MIN 3-2
Twins	Tigers	B.Duensing vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.94%	61.86%	61%	DET 6-5

Vegas Odds

Kurunch time

September 28th, All Meaningful Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	H.Kuroda vs Z.Duke	Dodgers	61.98%	61.95%	68%	PIT 11-1
Astros	Phillies	Y.Bazardo vs C.Hamels	Phillies	72.97%	67.70%	79%	HOU 8-2
Marlins	Braves	A.Sanchez vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	63.37%	61.01%	62%	ATL 4-0
Twins	Tigers	N.Blackburn vs R.Porcello	Tigers	55.36%	55.13%	51%	PPD
Rangers	Angels	T.Hunter vs E.Santana	Angels	60.94%	55.83%	56%	TBD

Vegas Odds

Up Next, NL West Title

September 27th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	C.Kershaw vs D.McCutchen	Dodgers	64.97%	70.08%	58%	PIT 6-5
Cardinals	Rockies	K.Lohse vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	64.41%	58.30%	57%	COL 4-3
Cubs	Giants	R.Wells vs M.Cain	Giants	55.75%	54.51%	59%	SF 5-1

Vegas Odds

Wolf For The Clinch

September 26th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	R.Wolf vs P.Maholm	Dodgers	61.98%	58.38%	60%	LAN 8-4
Cardinals	Rockies	A.Wainwright vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	55.95%	50.94%	48%	STL 6-3
Cubs	Giants	T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito	Giants	55.75%	56.16%	55%	CHN 6-2

Vegas Odds

And A Garland Shall Lead Us

September 25th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Pirates	J.Garland vs J.Karstens	Dodgers	63.64%	57.53%	66%	PIT 3-1
Cardinals	Rockies	C.Carpenters vs A.Cook	Cardinals	58.85%	61.17%	60%	COL 2-1
Cubs	Giants	C.Zambrano vs T.Lincecum	Giants	61.39%	61.96%	67%	CHN 3-0

Vegas Odds

Quit Toying Around

September 24th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	V.Padilla vs J.Martin	Dodgers	59.35%	54.71%	60%	LAN 7-6
Padres	Rockies	C.Richard vs J.Hammel	Rockies	66.33%	59.91%	68%	SD 5-4

Vegas Odds

Dodgers Mash In

September 23th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	C.Billingsley vs R.Detwiler	Dodgers	64.16%	58.52%	66%	WAS 5-4
Padres	Rockies	T.Stauffer vs J.Marquis	Rockies	66.10%	65.83%	64%	SD 6-3
Giants	DBacks	J.Sanchez vs K.Mulvey	Giants	56.33%	49.49%	59%	SF 5-2

Vegas Odds

Soft Stretch

September 22th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Nationals	H.Kuroda vs L.Hernandez	Dodgers	64.97%	60.95%	70%	LAN 14-2
Padres	Rockies	E.Mujica vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	69.23%	65.62%	62%	COL 11-10
Giants	DBacks	M.Cain vs D.Davis	Giants	52.61%	45.05%	57%	TBD

Vegas Odds

90 Wins

September 21th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Giants	DBacks	B.Zito vs D.Davis	DBacks	53.27%	56.92%	TBD	SF 5-4

Vegas Odds

Rin Tin Tim Lincecum

September 20th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	50.98%	50.49%	54%	LAN 6-2
Rockies	DBacks	U.Jimenez vs D.Haren	DBacks	51.22%	50.47%	57%	COL 5-1

Vegas Odds

Dear Jon Garland

September 19th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Penny vs J.Garland	Dodgers	56.33%	61.58%	52%	LAN 12-1
Rockies	DBacks	J.Hammel vs M.Scherzer	DBacks	51.92%	49.30%	58%	COL 10-4

Vegas Odds

High Five Game Lead

September 18th, NL West Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	J.Sanchez vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	58.33%	58.11%	61%	SF 8-4
Rockies	DBacks	J.Marquis vs K.Mulvey	Rockies	57.26%	56.32%	55%	ARI 7-5

Vegas Odds

Giant Beating Eve

September 17th, Today's Games of Interest

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Nationals	Phillies	R.Detwiler vs C.Hamels	Phillies	74.03%	63.90%	79%	PHI 4-2
Mets	Braves	N.Figueroa vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	71.01%	62.28%	68%	ATL 7-3
Marlins	Reds	A.Sanchez vs M.Maloney	Marlins	52.61%	58.43%	50%	CIN 3-2
Brewers	Cubs	D.Bush vs R.Wells	Cubs	59.02%	61.79%	55%	MIL 7-4
Angels	Red Sox	E.Santana vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	60.94%	59.56%	61%	LAA 4-3

Vegas Odds

Mr. Miracle

September 16th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	K.Hart vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	72.22%	8.8	72.60%	9.17	LAN 3-1
Rockies	Giants	J.de la Rosa vs M.Cain	Giants	55.75%	7.3	46.20%	8.58	COL 4-3

Vegas Odds

Yo Ho, Pirates Lose Again

September 15th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	Z.Duke vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	69.79%	8.0	67.92%	8.77	LAN 5-4
Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs B.Zito	Rockies	57.26%	7.1	55.51%	7.86	SF 10-2

Vegas Odds

The Dodgers, The Pirates, And The Ugly

September 14th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Pirates	Dodgers	D.McCutchen vs J.Garland	Dodgers	70.59%	8.4	66.56%	9.88	LAN 6-2
Rockies	Giants	J.Hammel vs T.Lincecum	Giants	63.90%	6.6	56.47%	7.01	SF 9-1

Vegas Odds

No Me Gusta, Brad Penny

September 13th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	C.Billingsley vs B.Penny	Dodgers	53.70%	8.0	59.45%	8.43	SF 7-2
Rockies	Padres	J.Marquis vs C.Richard	Rockies	55.35%	8.0	48.87%	7.38	SD 7-3

Vegas Odds

No Mercy!

September 12th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	V.Padilla vs J.Sanchez	Giants	51.69%	8.2	50.07%	8.61	LAN 9-1
Rockies	Padres	E.Rogers vs T.Stauffer	Padres	51.69%	8.4	51.14%	8.14	SD 3-2

Vegas Odds

Giants Killers

September 11th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	H.Kuroda vs M.Cain	Giants	56.33%	7.3	44.74%	8.21	LAN 10-3
Rockies	Padres	J.de la Rosa vs E.Mujica	Rockies	58.16%	7.8	53.50%	7.21	COL 4-1

Vegas Odds

Reds Bending Over

September 10th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Reds	Rockies	K.Wells vs J.Contreras	Rockies	67.53%	10.3	68.81%	9.18	COL 5-1

Vegas Odds

Garland For The Sweep

September 9th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	J.Garland vs D.Haren	DBacks	55.56%	8.4	59.32%	9.53	ARI 4-3
Reds	Rockies	B.Arroyo vs J.Hammel	Rockies	62.12%	9.4	70.94%	9.24	COL 4-3
Padres	Giants	W.LeBlanc vs B.Zito	Giants	63.37%	8.2	61.43%	8.67	SD 4-2

Vegas Odds

I Could Go For A Winning Streak

September 8th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Billingsley vs B.Buckner	Dodgers	64.91%	9.7	57.67%	10.47	LAN 5-4
Reds	Rockies	M.Maloney vs J.Marquis	Rockies	70.59%	9.8	72.29%	9.62	COL 3-1
Padres	Giants	K.Correia vs T.Lincecum	Giants	72.22%	6.8	64.35%	6.99	SD 4-3

Vegas Odds

Buh Buh Buh Buh-Bad

September 7th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	V.Padilla vs M.Scherzer	Dodgers	51.46%	9.2	39.84%	9.60	LAN 7-2
Padres	Giants	C.Richard vs B.Penny	Giants	62.69%	8.3	55.05%	8.54	SF 9-4

Vegas Odds

Kuroda Returns

September 6th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	66.78%	8.5	69.09%	8.33	SD 4-3
DBacks	Rockies	Y.Petit vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	68.25%	10.0	65.37%	10.19	COL 13-5
Giants	Brewers	J.Sanchez vs B.Looper	Brewers	52.15%	8.7	50.59%	9.85	MIL 2-1

Vegas Odds

Borderline Pathetic

September 5th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	70.59%	7.9	68.92%	8.53	LAN 7-4
DBacks	Rockies	D.Davis vs J.Contreras	Rockies	56.52%	9.7	63.01%	9.92	COL 4-1
Giants	Brewers	B.Zito vs J.Suppan	Brewers	53.92%	7.6	62.70%	8.57	SF 3-2

Vegas Odds

I-Padres

September 4th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Padres	Dodgers	W.LeBlanc vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	72.22%	8.1	73.81%	8.59	SD 2-0
DBacks	Rockies	D.Haren vs J.Hammel	Rockies	51.92%	8.8	56.44%	8.92	COL 5-4
Giants	Brewers	B.Zito vs J.Suppan	Brewers	50.00%	8.8	53.53%	9.83	SF 3-2

Vegas Odds

Mad Max, Beyond Impressive

September 3rd, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	B.Buckner vs J.Garland	Dodgers	66.78%	9.2	62.25%	9.05	LAN 4-2
Giants	Phillies	T.Lincecum vs P.Martinez	Giants	55.36%	8.1	55.24%	8.13	PHI 2-1
Mets	Rockies	P.Misch vs J.Marquis	Rockies	69.97%	10.0	70.03%	9.83	NYM 8-3

Vegas Odds

Walk This Way

September 2nd, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.69	8.1	61.16%	7.54	ARI 4-1
Giants	Phillies	B.Penny vs J.A. Happ	Phillies	66.78%	8.7	67.16%	9.60	SF 4-0
Mets	Rockies	T.Redding vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	72.60%	9.3	74.01%	9.27	COL 5-2

Vegas Odds

Trader Ned's

September 1st, Meaningful NL West Games

Dodgers acquire Jim Thome and Jon Garland.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	Y.Petit vs V.Padilla	Dodgers	65.64%	9.0	61.61%	9.17	LAN 4-3
Giants	Phillies	J.Sanchez vs C.Hamels	Phillies	64.41%	8.3	60.59%	9.03	PHI 1-0
Mets	Rockies	M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	66.78%	9.5	65.41%	8.66	COL 8-3

Vegas Odds

Baby Got Diamond Back

August 31st, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
DBacks	Dodgers	D.Davis vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	63.24%	7.9	63.93%	8.48	ARI 5-3

Vegas Odds

Living On The Air In Cincinnati

August 30th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo	Dodgers	62.12%	8.1	62.28%	9.05	LAN 3-2
Rockies	Giants	J.Hammel vs M.Cain	Giants	55.56%	7.6	48.26%	8.27	SF 9-5

Vegas Odds

Knuckle Sandwich

August 29th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Haeger vs M.Maloney	Dodgers	59.68%	9.0	55.83%	9.90	11-4
Rockies	Giants	J.Marquis vs B.Zito	Rockies	53.92%	7.7	48.99%	8.53	5-3

Vegas Odds

Big Favorites In Cincy

August 28th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Reds	C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey	Dodgers	65.64%	8.8	65.52%	9.15	CIN 4-2
Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	Giants	56.52%	6.5	55.28%	6.86	SF 2-0

Vegas Odds

Back In The Saddle Again

August 27th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	V.Padilla vs J.de la Rosa	Rockies	57.98%	10.1	57.70%	10.00	LAN 3-2
DBacks	Giants	Y.Petit vs J.Martinez	Giants	56.33%	8.5	57.27%	9.01	ARI 11-0

Vegas Odds

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It

and I feel fine! Yes, the Dodgers lost a tough extra inning game last night in the opening salvo vs the Roxies. The Roxies have cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West, which happens to be the smallest lead of any in the 6 MLB divisions, to just two games. All is not lost though, because there exists this mulligan on a season called the wild-card.

Yes, the Dodgers lead is down to two games, but their lead in the wild-card is six games, and it's over the Giants, not a team like the "red hot" Roxies. As I pointed out on a post over at Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers still have a great chance of making the playoffs. For the most part the playoffs are a crapshoot. All four teams should be pretty even for the most part, with home field advantage being the biggest seperator between the teams.

According to the site Sports Club Stats which is on the side-bar. The Dodgers break even point (50% chance of making the playoffs) is somewhere between 89 and 90 wins. A 16-20 record the rest of the way out would give the Dodgers a 90 win season.

Here are the breakdowns. Total wins, probability of making the playoffs.

< 85 ... 0%
85 ... 1%
86 ... 3%
87 ... 11%
88 ... 24%
89 ... 45%
90 ... 66%
91 ... 83%
92 ... 94% (.500 ball the rest of the season)
93 ... 98%
>93 ... 100%

Regressing To The Mean

August 26th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	R.Wolf vs J.Fogg	Dodgers	56.52%	10.5	51.10%	10.25	LAN 6-1
DBacks	Giants	D.Davis vs J.Sanchez	Giants	57.98%	7.5	60.60%	7.85	TBD

Vegas Odds

Tuesday is Toss-up Day

August 25th, Meaningful NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Hammel	Dodgers	51.69%	9.4	50.04%	9.19	COL 5-4
DBacks	Giants	D.Haren vs M.Cain	Giants	57.98%	6.6	51.01%	7.32	SF 5-4

Vegas Odds

Denver Bound

August 24th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Rockies	B.Zito vs J.Marquis	Rockies	62.12%	9.4	59.83%	9.98	COL 6-4

Vegas Odds

Breathing Room

August 23rd, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.26%	7.52	61.60%	8.13	CHN 3-1
Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs U.Jimenez	Giants	51.22%	8.0	43.70%	7.52	COL 4-2

Vegas Odds

Hey! Grrrr

August 22st, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	T.Lilly vs C.Haeger	Cubs	50.98%	8.7	52.50%	8.59	LAN 2-0
Giants	Rockies	J.Martinez vs J.De la Rosa	Rockies	63.10%	9.4	67.74%	9.99	COL 14-11

Vegas Odds

Randy^2

August 21st, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	R.Wells vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	59.02%	8.0	56.26%	8.43	LAN 2-1
Giants	Rockies	J.Sanchez vs A.Cook	Rockies	61.54%	9.2	56.41%	9.43	SF 6-3

Vegas Odds

Under Pressure

August 20th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cubs	Dodgers	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Weaver	Dodgers	55.75%	8.7	57.22%	9.15	LAN 7-2
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs G.Mock	Rockies	56.71%	9.7	55.66%	9.22	COL 4-1
Giants	Reds	M.Cain vs A.Harang	Giants	55.36%	7.4	50.70%	8.24	CIN 2-1

Vegas Odds

Pitchers Duel Azul

August 19th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	55.16%	7.3	59.17%	7.63	STL 3-2
Giants	Reds	B.Zito vs B.Arroyo	Reds	51.46%	8.5	47.11%	9.04	SF 1-0
Rockies	Nationals	J.Marquis vs J.Balester	Rockies	60.00%	9.2	53.64%	9.49	COL 5-4

Vegas Odds

Ham Strung

August 18th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	M.Boggs vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.41%	8.2	64.86%	8.81	LAN 7-3
Giants	Reds	T.Lincecum vs H.Bailey	Giants	68.35%	7.6	62.34%	8.14	SF 8-5
Rockies	Nationals	U.Jimenez vs C.Statten	Rockies	60.94%	8.7	52.68%	9.2	COL 4-3

Vegas Odds

Blue Knuckle Time

August 17th, NL West Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Cardinals	Dodgers	C.Carpenter vs C.Haeger	Cardinals	60.32%	7.7	58.20%	8.43	STL 3-2
Giants	Mets	J.Martinez vs L.Hernandez	Giants	51.22%	9.1	54.30%	9.22	SF 10-1

Vegas Odds

Hungry Like The Randy Wolf

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, August 14-16

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	DBacks	C.Kershaw vs D.Haren	DBacks	50.25%	7.6	51.16%	9.15	ARI 4-1
Dodgers	DBacks	H.Kuroda vs D.Davis	Dodgers	52.83%	9.2	54.00%	9.77	ARI 4-3
Dodgers	DBacks	R.Wolf vs Y.Petit	Dodgers	58.51%	9.1	56.07%	10.47	LAN 9-3

Other Games of Interest

NL West, August 16th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey	Giants	50.25%	8.4	45.13%	8.17	NYM 3-2
Rockies	Marlins	A.Cook vs C.Volstad	Marlins	50.00%	8.7	54.23%	10.52	FLA 10-3
Rockies	Marlins	J.de la Rosa vs R.Vandenhurk	Marlins	51.00%	9.3	53.71%	10.02	COL 7-3

NL West, August 15th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	M.Cain vs J.Santana	Mets	54.75%	7.1	55.50%	8.07	SF 5-4

NL West, August 14th Games

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Giants	Mets	B.Zito vs B.Parnell	Giants	50.98%	8.6	57.08%	9.17	NYN 3-0
Rockies	Marlins	J.Hammel vs J.Johnson	Marlins	61.24%	8.3	53.31%	9.05	FLA 6-5

Pirates vs Rockies, August 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Pirates	Rockies	P.Maholm vs J.Marquis	Rockies	70.59%	9.7	63.51%	9.80	COL 10-1

Vegas Odds

Weaver For The Sweep?

Dodgers vs Giants, August 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	J.Weaver vs T.Lincecum	Giants	64.54%	7.1	72.67%	7.47	SF 3-2

Vegas Odds

Beat The Giants, Part II

Dodgers vs Giants, August 11th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	R.Wolf vs J.Martinez	Dodgers	56.33%	8.5	47.14%	9.65	LAN 9-1

Vegas Odds

Stamp Out The Giants

Dodgers vs Giants, August 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Dodgers	Giants	H.Kuroda vs J.Sanchez	Dodgers	52.83%	8.4	54.89%	8.39	LAN 4-2

Vegas Odds

Slip Sliding Away

The Dodgers lead in the NL West is "Slip Sliding Away!".

NL West Standings
Team	W	L	GB	Pecota NL West Champ Chances
Dodgers	67	45	0	78.13%
Rockies	61	50	5.5	16.60%
Giants	61	50	5.5	5.25%
Diamondbacks	50	62	17	0.01%
Padres	47	66	20.5	0.00%

A Brave New Series

Braves vs Dodgers, August 6th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U	Actual
Braves	Dodgers	D.Lowe vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	56.33%	8.3	54.92%	8.95	LAN 5-4
Braves	Dodgers	J.Jurrjens vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	55.36%	7.5	56.98%	8.63	ATL 9-5
Braves	Dodgers	K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.26%	8.2	61.53%	9.08	ATL 2-1
Braves	Dodgers	J.Vazquez vs E.Stults	Braves	55.36%	8.2	53.90%	8.06	ATL 8-2

Vegas Odds

Tuesday... Bloody Tuesday

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 5th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U
Brewers	Dodgers	B.Looper vs J.Schmidt	Dodgers	56.33%	9.5	55.34%	9.44

Actual Score: Brewers 4-1

Vegas Odds

Geared Up To Begin New Winning Streak

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 4th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Xeifrank Win Prob	Xeifrank O/U
Brewers	Dodgers	H.Kuroda vs Y.Gallardo	Dodgers	54.34%	7.9	52.82%	7.11

Actual Score: Dodgers 17-4

Vegas Odds

In Kemp We Trust!

Brewers vs Dodgers, August 3rd

Source	Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Vegas	Brewers	Dodgers	M.Parra vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	64.97%	8.4
Xeifrank System	Brewers	Dodgers	M.Parra vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	66.59%	8.16

Actual Score: Brewers 6-5

Some Like It Hot

Dodgers vs Braves, August 2nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Braves	C.Billingsley vs J.Jurrjens	Braves	57.08%	7.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

How Lowe Can You Go

Dodgers vs Braves, August 1st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Braves	R.Wolf vs D.Lowe	Braves	55.95	8.5

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

MMMBop

Dodgers vs Braves, July 31st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Braves	J.Schmidt vs T.Hanson	Braves	61.54%	9.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers Ready Themselves For A Little Hanson

Get Out Of St. Louis Game

Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 30th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cardinals	H.Kuroda vs K.Lohse	Dodgers	50.00%	8.9

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers Looking For Dead Cat Bounce

Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 29th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cardinals	C.Kershaw vs J.Pineiro	Cardinals	52.15%	7.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodger Stopper Heads To The Mound City

Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 28th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cardinals	C.Billingsley vs A.Wainwright	Cardinals	54.75%	7.7

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Is St. Louis and Chris Carpenter Really That Good!?

Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 27th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	61.83%	7.5

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Schmidt's Happening

Marlins vs Dodgers, July 26th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Marlins	Dodgers	C.Volstad vs J.Schmidt	Dodgers	55.16%	8.6

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Gone Fishin'

Marlins vs Dodgers, July 25th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Marlins	Dodgers	R.VandenHurk vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	61.83%	9.0

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Going For 6

Marlins vs Dodgers, July 24th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Marlins	Dodgers	J.Johnson vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	59.35%	7.1

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Sweepingsley

Reds vs Dodgers, July 22nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Reds	Dodgers	B.Arroyo vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	65.87%	8.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Reds vs Dodgers, July 21st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Reds	Dodgers	H.Bailey vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	64.03%	7.2

Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds